FG Nexus sold $32.7 million in Ethereum to fund share buybacks after its stock fell 94% in four months, highlighting the deepening net asset value (NAV) crisis among digital asset treasury companies.

The sale follows ETHZilla’s $40 million ETH offload in October, underlining mounting pressures throughout a sector managing over $42.7 billion in cryptocurrency assets. This wave of forced selling underscores vulnerabilities in the corporate crypto treasury model, as companies wrestle with stocks trading below the value of their underlying asset holdings.

Treasury Companies Resort to Asset Sales Amid Stock Collapse

FG Nexus disclosed selling 10,922 ETH in October to support a $200 million share buyback. The company began repurchasing shares after its stock fell steeply below NAV, a measure of per-share underlying crypto value. FG Nexus retained 40,005 ETH and $37 million in cash, with total debt rising to $11.9 million, as of Wednesday.

The firm bought back 3.4 million shares at about $3.45 each, representing 8% of its outstanding shares. Management stressed that shares were purchased at a discount to NAV, which reached $3.94 per share by mid-November. This strategy, however, required roughly $10 million in debt and a liquidation of 21% of ETH reserves compared to September levels.

FG Nexus Sold $32.7M in $ETH: Treasury Companies Are Starting to Sell

🔹 FG Nexus sold $32.7M in ETH (10922 ETH)
🔹 Now holds around 40,005 ETH
🔹 Other DAT companies are also reducing their ETH positions
🔹 $FGNX Stock down -94% in 4 months

Their stock is also down 94% in the… pic.twitter.com/A0hXYQaKk3

— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) November 20, 2025

FG Nexus is one of several digital asset treasury companies pursuing crypto sales. ETHZilla announced an approximate $40 million ETH sale to facilitate stock repurchases in late October. The company bought 600,000 shares for nearly $12 million since October 24, seeking relief from a persistent 30% discount to NAV.

When a DAT company’s shares trade at a discount to the value of its crypto holdings (mNAV below 1.0), shareholders push management to realize that hidden value. The most effective way to do this is through a stock buyback, but securing the funds necessary to repurchase shares requires cash. If the company lacks sufficient cash reserves, it must sell some of its crypto assets to finance the buyback.

The mNAV of Metaplanet, a DAT company that accumulates Bitcoin, dropped to 0.99 before recovering to 1.03. Its shares have lost 70% since their June highs, signaling sector-wide stress. The use of perpetual preferred equity, which blends fixed dividends with crypto exposure, further complicates capital structures already under pressure from current market conditions.

Leveraged Structures Amplify Market Pressure

DAT companies deployed $42.7 billion in crypto during 2025, with $22.6 billion accumulated in Q3 alone. This expansion accelerated as Bitcoin rallied above $126,000 in October, fueling positive feedback loops and rising valuations. However, subsequent reversals exposed weaknesses in capital structures built on leverage and capital market access.

Treasury companies account for only 0.83% of total crypto market capitalization. Their concentration of holdings, however, amplifies their impact during downturns. Leverage via convertible notes, PIPE deals, and perpetual preferred equity increases selling pressure when prices fall or NAV discounts widen.

Market liquidity deteriorated sharply as asset prices dropped. Bitcoin’s order book depth at the 1% band fell from $20 million to $14 million—a 33% decrease that heightens price sensitivity to any selling. Analysts estimate forced treasury company sales could reach $4 billion to $6 billion if 10% to 15% of positions are liquidated, potentially surpassing November’s $2.33 billion in ETF outflows.

Systemic Risks Mount as Buying Halts

Corporate crypto buying has stalled due to waning confidence and reduced capital deployment. Companies that once offered steady demand are now selling, reversing earlier positive cycles. MicroStrategy’s stock fell 60% amid Bitcoin volatility, showing the risk of correlation between crypto prices and equity values even for companies with solid balance sheets.

Smaller treasury firms are under increased stress, especially those holding less liquid assets. Several firms exposed to Solana experienced 40% NAV drawdowns as concentrated bets deepened losses. Limited diversification and thin trading volumes in alternative cryptocurrencies add to broader sector vulnerabilities.

Oof. BitMine is down $3.7 BILLION on its massive $ETH bet.

That's the risk of being a Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) company!

Question: Will we see more firms try this, or is this a flashing red warning for corporate crypto treasuries? $ETH ETFs are looming… pic.twitter.com/emOvzQQQTD

— DrBullZeus (@DrBullZeus) November 20, 2025

Retail investors also contributed to selling by exiting positions in advance, reducing market demand as institutional holders began liquidating. In November, $4 billion in ETF outflows and reduced market-maker activity intensified volatility. These conditions resemble leverage-fueled market crashes seen in other asset classes, such as the 2008 mortgage REIT crisis.

This growing crisis challenges the resilience of the digital asset treasury model in prolonged downturns. Rigorous risk management and regulatory oversight could be necessary to prevent self-reinforcing selloffs from destabilizing the broader market. In the weeks ahead, these companies’ ability to maintain their crypto holdings without further forced liquidation will determine whether the sector survives intact or undergoes fundamental restructuring.

The post DAT Firms Sell Crypto to Save Their Stocks: Is This Sustainable? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin’s recent price decline has revealed a sharp split in trading, with US sessions driving sell-offs while Asian traders steadily buy the dip. Data shows American sessions have become the weakest period for Bitcoin prices.

This divergence highlights contrasting risk appetites and sparks debate about whether Bitcoin is experiencing a healthy correction or facing deeper structural issues.

US Trading Drives Bitcoin Sell-Offs, Asia Absorbs Supply

This week’s price activity reflects a clear trend: US trading hours show persistent losses, with European sessions experiencing smaller declines. In contrast, Asian-Pacific markets remain comparatively stable and often support price recoveries. Data snapshots underline the US trading window’s central role in recent market drops.

An X user commented, “Every single America session consists of relentless selling for hours. Then the Asians wake up and buy it all back until the Americans wake up. Like literal clockwork”. This interplay has become a regular feature of current trading dynamics.

The split may stem from differing risk sentiment across regions. US selling is likely due to caution over macroeconomic signals, policy changes, or liquidity. By contrast, many Asian traders view dips as buying opportunities, either because of confidence in Bitcoin’s outlook or because of varied investment approaches.

Liquidity and market depth factor in, too. US trading brings high volume, so broad selling can strongly affect global price moves. When American traders favor selling, global prices drop until Asian buyers step in and restore balance.

It’s also notable that retail investors are generally bearish, while whales are bullish and US institutions are bearish. The Coinbase Premium Index, which reflects US institutional sentiment, has remained in negative territory for almost the entire month of November.

Institutional Players Alter Traditional Bitcoin Cycles

On-chain analyst Ki Young Ju offers a detailed view of today’s market landscape. He notes that Bitcoin’s bull cycle technically ended earlier in 2024 after reaching $100,000. Traditional cycle theory would suggest prices drop toward $56,000 to set a new cycle low.

If you are not trading futures and only holding Bitcoin spot, this looks like a reasonable long-term accumulation zone.

To be fair, from an on-chain cycle perspective, the bull cycle technically ended earlier this year when Bitcoin touched around $100K.

In classic cycle…

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 20, 2025

Such institutional absorption creates a virtual price floor, since major holders with steady conviction are unlikely to sell during downturns. Traditional models assumed most participants might capitulate in a bear phase, but strategic corporate treasuries challenge that assumption.

Yet, some warn that concentration creates fresh risks. If institutions face financial stress or change strategies, any large sale could disrupt the market. So far, however, they remain committed to holding and accumulating Bitcoin.

Experts See Healthy Correction in Ongoing Bull Market

Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, sees the recent correction in a positive light. He describes the drawdown as a standard adjustment in a larger bull market, not a sign that the cycle is over.

Kuiper’s analysis uses on-chain signals, such as the MVRV ratio for short-term holders. These stats indicate that the current price tests recent buyers’ conviction, echoing prior corrections that preceded further rallies. It shows that those who bought recently face unrealized losses before the market resets and trends higher.

Lack of negative headline events supports his interpretation. No significant regulatory action, exchange failures, or macro shocks have triggered the pullback. Instead, profit-taking and leverage liquidations after Bitcoin’s rally toward $100,000 appear to be the main causes.

Is this a local bottom for #bitcoin and other digital assets?

I as well as anyone never knows for sure, but one chart I do like to use to help gauge the probabilities is the short-term holder MVRV chart along with their cost basis (first chart).

Note that if this indeed is a… pic.twitter.com/B66onRgEgl

— Chris Kuiper, CFA (@ChrisJKuiper) November 19, 2025

Traders now weigh two scenarios. The split between optimistic Asian buyers and cautious US sellers could be resolved if American sentiment improves or persists if global market structures shift further. Broader macro trends—such as government liquidity measures and regulatory changes—are likely to determine which path the market takes in the coming months.

The post Why Does Asia Keep Buying Bitcoin While Americans Are Selling? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Zcash has seen a strong surge in recent weeks as demand for privacy coins grows across the market. ZEC’s rise stands out due to its limited correlation with Bitcoin, allowing it to perform independently during periods of volatility. 

This unique behavior has fueled renewed interest and helped strengthen ZEC’s upward momentum.

Zcash Is Independent

Zcash’s correlation with Bitcoin currently sits at -0.78, signaling a strong negative relationship. This means ZEC is moving in the opposite direction of BTC, which is highly beneficial at a time when Bitcoin is trading near $90,000 after several days of decline. ZEC’s ability to decouple from BTC enables it to avoid broader market pullbacks.

This negative correlation has remained intact since early November, reinforcing ZEC’s resilience. As long as the correlation stays below zero, Zcash will be less vulnerable to Bitcoin-driven sell-offs. 

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Macro indicators also suggest favorable conditions. Zcash’s liquidation map reveals that short sellers should approach the market with caution. If ZEC climbs to $788, roughly $51 million worth of short positions could be liquidated. This creates an additional incentive for traders to avoid bearish strategies.

Large liquidation clusters often discourage short positions and can fuel further upside as forced liquidations amplify price movement. For ZEC, reaching these levels would disrupt bearish sentiment and provide additional support for continued appreciation.

ZEC Price Has A Lot Of Room To Grow

Zcash trades at $671, sitting just below the $700 resistance level. The altcoin has gained 65.5% since the start of the month. This reflects strong market participation and growing interest from both retail and institutional traders.

If momentum continues, ZEC could rise toward $1,000, which sits 49% above current levels. Achieving this target within 10 days is possible if investor support remains consistent. To reach $1,000, ZEC must first break through and convert the $700, $800, and $900 levels into support.

However, if selling pressure increases, ZEC could lose momentum and fall to $600. A deeper correction may push the price toward $520, invalidating the current bullish thesis, leaving the altcoin vulnerable to a crash.

The post Zcash (ZEC) Rips While Bitcoin Dips — Can This Privacy Coin Run 49% Higher appeared first on BeInCrypto.

XRP has fallen 5% this week as its ongoing decline continues despite growing institutional interest. The altcoin is struggling to recover, even with two XRP ETFs already live and two more scheduled to launch next week. 

This disconnect has raised questions about why price action remains soft.

XRP Whales Are Selling

Whale activity offers the clearest explanation for the weakness. Large holders have continued selling throughout the week, adding downward pressure on XRP. In the last 48 hours alone, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have sold more than 250 million tokens, worth over $528 million.

Whales remain highly influential due to their ability to shift liquidity and sentiment. Sustained selling from these holders signals a lack of confidence in the near-term outlook. If the selling continues, it could deepen XRP’s decline, especially as the price approaches key support levels.

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Macro momentum, however, paints a more nuanced picture. New XRP addresses have surged over the past week, climbing to a monthly high. This rise appears linked to the launch of Caanary Capital’s ETF (XRPC) and Bitwise’s ETF (XRP), both of which are driving renewed participation in the network.

Additional inflows are expected as Grayscale’s XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) and Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF (XRPZ) go live on Monday. These launches are likely encouraging new users to enter the market, providing a counterweight to whale selling and offering potential support for future price stability.

XRP Price Continues To Fall

XRP trades at $2.11 at the time of writing, maintaining support at $2.08. The asset is marking a monthly low and facing mixed sentiment due to conflicting signals from whales and new entrants. Price stability will depend on whether fresh capital outweighs ongoing sell-offs.

If inflows from new addresses continue, they may offset the recent whale selling. This could help XRP rebound above $2.20 and push toward $2.28. ETF-driven demand has the potential to restore short-term momentum and encourage accumulation.

If XRP breaks below the $2.08 support, the downside risk increases. The price could fall to $2.02 or slip below $2.00 if selling intensifies. Such a decline would invalidate the bullish thesis and reflect a deeper shift in market sentiment.

The post Bitwise XRP ETF Goes Live, Up Next Grayscale; Yet Price Crashes 5% appeared first on BeInCrypto.

A recent report by Kerberus, a Web3 security firm, suggests that human behavior is now the primary risk in Web3.

BeInCrypto spoke with the firm’s CEO, Alex Katz, and CTO, Danor Cohen, to understand why users continue to fall victim to attacks and what they can do to better protect themselves.

Human Error Drives Major Web3 Losses, Kerberus Report Finds 

In its latest report titled “The Human Factor – Real-Time Protection Is the Unsung Layer of Web3 Cybersecurity (2025),” Kerberus revealed that human-focused attacks were the most structurally dangerous vector in Web3.

The report cites data showing that a significant share of industry losses stems from user mistakes. Roughly 44% of crypto thefts in 2024 resulted from the mismanagement of private keys. Another research indicates that human error is involved in approximately 60% of security breaches.

With 820 million active wallets in 2025, the threat landscape is expanding quickly, and everyone remains at risk. Katz told BeInCrypto that bad actors are targeting both newcomers and experienced users, but for very different reasons.

“New users are attractive because they don’t yet understand what ‘normal’ Web3 behavior looks like,” he said

Interestingly, the executive noted that long-time users are becoming increasingly higher-value targets compared to newcomers. According to him, 

“Veteran users interact with far more dApps, sign more transactions, and move larger amounts. That means a single moment of complacency can do far more damage. So the group most at risk today is anyone who assumes they’re not at risk.” 

Cohen added that one of the biggest misconceptions in Web3 is the belief that security failures stem from users not understanding the technology. His analysis points in the opposite direction. People are getting hacked because the system places an unrealistic burden on them.

“Users think, ‘I’m too smart to get drained, I know how wallets work – I’m safe.’ But the threat landscape changes faster than users do. Attackers aren’t trying to outsmart your wallet; they’re trying to outsmart you. And they’re extremely good at it.  What people misunderstand is that Web3 puts an enormous cognitive burden on the individual. Users shouldn’t have to decipher technical signals to stay safe – security must work for them automatically,” he mentioned.

Why Even Smart Web3 Users Keep Getting Drained in 2025

These human-driven risk persists despite record spending on security in 2025. Kerberus’ report stated that crypto-related services and investors lost over $3.1 billion to hacks and scams in the first half of the year. This is already more than the total for all of 2024. 

That number includes the historic Bybit breach. Excluding this, human-targeted attacks such as phishing and social engineering still accounted for $600 million. This represented 37% of the remaining $1.64 billion in losses.

The report noted that these attacks scale with growing adoption and bypass technical defenses entirely. This makes it difficult for traditional security models to prevent them.

While companies invest heavily in audits, monitoring, and code reviews, attackers increasingly exploit users directly at the transaction level. But what makes humans so vulnerable to these attacks?

“Humans are vulnerable because every scam is designed to exploit natural psychological shortcuts — urgency, authority, familiarity, fear of missing out, or comfort with routine. These are not flaws; they’re the same instincts that allow us to function in everyday life. Technology alone can’t change human psychology, but it can catch the moment when psychology is being weaponized,” Cohen detailed. 

He emphasized that the strongest form of protection isn’t relying on users to avoid mistakes through education alone, but rather stopping harmful actions in real-time before damage occurs. 

“That’s why real-time detection matters so much. If you can warn a user at the exact moment their trust is being manipulated, you can stop most losses before they occur,” Cohen added.

The executive noted that it’s unrealistic to expect an everyday user to distinguish between a malicious dApp, an airdrop, or a mint page. Modern fraudulent platforms often closely mirror legitimate ones. This makes them nearly indistinguishable.

He added that users can click phishing links repeatedly. They don’t do so out of carelessness, but because the attacks are intentionally crafted to deceive.

Even real-time warnings can sometimes appear to be false positives, highlighting the advanced nature of these scams.

“Users shouldn’t be expected to perform forensic checks. The burden has to shift to tools that analyze intent and behavior in real time,” Cohen suggested.

The report also states that these attacks exploit moments when users are least able to assess threats. It may happen when someone checks their wallet while distracted at work, reacts to an urgent message claiming their account will be frozen, or approves a transaction at the end of a long day when they’re exhausted.

According to the findings, the industry’s response has largely been to add more warnings and verification steps. But this approach often backfires due to “security fatigue.” As users become accustomed to constant alerts—many of which are false alarms that simply slow them down—their ability to make careful decisions diminishes under the continuous cognitive pressure.

3 Actions Users Can Take to Stay Safer in Web3

To reduce real-world losses, Katz disclosed three practices users can adopt. He advised users to:

• Pause before signing: Most compromises occur in under ten seconds. Taking even a brief moment to read the prompt or confirm whether the request aligns with the intended action can prevent a large share of successful attacks.
• Separate high-value assets from everyday activity: Using multiple wallets remains one of the most effective safeguards. He suggested that users should keep their long-term holdings in a cold or low-touch wallet and use a separate wallet for exploration, mints, and dApps. This compartmentalization limits potential damage.
• Rely on real-time transaction protection: Because many threats involve social engineering rather than technical exploits, users benefit from tools that interpret on-chain actions before they’re finalized. This single layer of defense blocks many of the more advanced scams.

The intention, he stressed, is not to turn users into security experts, but to build guardrails that prevent mistakes from turning into financial losses.

The post Human-Targeted Attacks Are Now Web3’s Most Dangerous Threat, Report Finds appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The XRP price has dropped below the $2.00 psychological level, revisiting levels last seen during the October 10 crash.

In comes amid a broader bearish sentiment in the crypto market, that saw the Bitcoin price fall below the $87,000 level and $220 million longs blown out of the water within the hour.

XRP Price Retests June Lows As it Falls Below $2

As of this writing, the powering token for the Ripple ecosystem was trading at $1.98, down 2.5% in the last 24 hours and nearly 16% in the last week.

The drop came as Bitcoin pulled the broader crypto market down after slipping below $87,000 and blowing over $220 million worth of long positions out of the water in an hour.

Surprisingly, the drop came while the Ripple community was still in the XRP ETF frenzy, following Bitwise Invest’s recent move to launch the financial instrument.

Very excited to launch the Bitwise XRP ETF $XRP. What a journey for this asset and this community. Excited to see what’s next.

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) November 20, 2025

In fact, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse had only hours ago called the “pre-thanksgiving rush” for the XRP ETF as the financial instrument first hit the NYSE.

The pre-thanksgiving rush (shall we say, 'turkey trot'!?) for XRP ETFs starts now.. congrats @BitwiseInvest on today's launch! https://t.co/EgYVrm0TmM

— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) November 20, 2025

Nonetheless, ETF analyst James Seyffart revealed that the financial instrument was already making a name for itself, garnering $22 million in trading with three hours left before trading closed on November 20.

“With a bit over ~3 hours left in trading Bitwise’s XRP is almost at $22 million in trading today. Quite impressive for the second product to market a full week after Canary Capital’s XRPC, which is the #1 launch by volume this year,” wrote Seyffart.

Canary Capital’s XRP ETF saw strong early demand, with Bitwise’s financial instrument following suit despite recent sentiment in the crypto ETF market.

However, concerns exist for the XRP community after Glassnode revealed a decline in the volume of supply that is currently in profit. Clearly, there is a disconnect between the ETF’s strong inflows and the XRP price performance.

The share of XRP supply in profit has fallen to 58.5%, the lowest since Nov 2024, when price was $0.53.
Today, despite trading ~4× higher ($2.15), 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) sits in loss — a clear sign of a top-heavy and structurally fragile market dominated by late buyers.
📉… https://t.co/CBXPzDalxV pic.twitter.com/UpLNKV7LqD

— glassnode (@glassnode) November 17, 2025

Well, XRP whales contributed significantly to the recent price drop. Reports indicate whales sold around 200 million XRP within 48 hours of the ETF launch.

Meanwhile, analysts say it may take until 2026 for institutional flows to show up, which means next year is when the impact of the XRP ETF can really be felt on the Ripple price.

Why is XRP dropping even after ETF launches?

Because the market misunderstood the play.

Retail:
Thought ETFs would instantly FOMO into XRP → rushed in early → heavy speculation.

Institutions:
• Launch ETF
• APs send cash
• Issuers buy XRP slowly, on dips
• Accumulate… pic.twitter.com/sWPuaxyphr

— BD (@DiepSanh) November 17, 2025

The post Ripple Price Falls Below $2 on Day #1 of Bitwise XRP ETF appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin fell below $87,000 on November 20, 2025, amid a storm of quantum security fears and $1.3 billion whale capitulation. In the process, it blew almost $220 million in long positions out of the water.

This sharp decline extended a two-day pattern of Asian rebounds erased by US market sell-offs. Traders struggled with mixed signals from institutional buyers and a wave of retail panic.

Quantum Computing Panic Triggers Market-Wide Fear

The latest sell-off accelerated after billionaire Ray Dalio raised concerns about Bitcoin’s vulnerability to advances in quantum computing.

His remarks reignited debate in the cryptocurrency community, focusing attention on cryptographic security risks.

“I have a small percentage of Bitcoin I’ve had forever, like 1% of my portfolio. I think the problem with Bitcoin is that it’s not going to be a reserve currency for major countries because it can be tracked, and it could be conceivably controlled, hacked, and so on,” Ray Dalio stated.

However, market analysts pushed back on the quantum panic narrative. Mel Mattison, a financial analyst, argued that these fears are overblown and overlook Bitcoin’s strong cryptography in comparison to traditional banks.

“If people are selling BTC on quantum decryption, they should be selling the hell out of every bank on the planet. JPM should be down 20%. Every account will be hackable. BTC is SHA-256, which is tougher than RSA,” Mel Mattison countered.

This debate reflects a significant divide in how investors assess long-term tech risks. While Dalio highlighted theoretical vulnerabilities as quantum computing develops, critics point out that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 provides stronger security than the RSA standard used by most banks.

If quantum computers pose a threat to Bitcoin, global banking may face even greater risks.

Early Bitcoin Adopter Exits With $1.3 Billion Sale

Adding to quantum security worries, blockchain analytics firm Arkham reported a massive capitulation. Owen Gunden, an early Bitcoin adopter who accumulated holdings since 2011, sold his entire 11,000 BTC for about $1.3 billion.

OWEN GUNDEN HAS NOW SOLD ALL OF HIS $1.3 BILLION BITCOIN

Owen Gunden was an OG Bitcoin whale who held BTC since 2011. Since late October he has sold 11K BTC worth $1.3 billion.

He has just transferred $230M of BTC to Kraken, marking his final sale. pic.twitter.com/m0gQWCHrxZ

— Arkham (@arkham) November 20, 2025

Gunden’s exit came at a precarious time for sentiment. According to data from BeInCrypto, Bitcoin was trading at $86,767 at the latest update, down 2.55% over 24 hours.

This whale’s decision to sell after 14 years highlights a shift from the usual long-term holding mentality. The reasons are unclear, whether profit-taking, rebalancing, or concerns about Bitcoin’s outlook.

Still, the sale injected extra supply into an oversold market and deepened the price slide.

Massive Liquidation Cascade Accelerates Decline

Quantum fears and whale selling sparked a large liquidation cascade across exchanges. CoinGlass data shows over $910 million in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, forcing out 222,008 traders.

During one hour in early US trading, long liquidations spiked to $264.79 million while shorts hit $256.44 million.

These forced closures highlight the significant leverage in crypto markets and how quickly positions can unwind during sharp market moves.

This cascade revealed structural weaknesses in crypto derivatives as well. As Bitcoin dropped from above $91,000 to $86,000 in 48 hours, leveraged traders faced margin calls and had their positions automatically closed.

This automated selling created further price declines and additional liquidations, fueling a cycle of volatility.

Institutional Buyers Return Despite Retail Panic

Despite the sell-off, US Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) saw $75 million in net inflows on Wedneday, ending a five-day outflow streak.

BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s mini ETF accounted for all the inflows, showing that some institutional investors viewed the dip as a buying opportunity.

Yet, sentiment among ETF issuers remained mixed. VanEck, Fidelity, and other large issuers reported flat or negative flows, indicating cautious optimism.

This split highlights the mixed outlook in Bitcoin markets. Some institutions view the current levels as valuable, while others hesitate due to near-term uncertainties.

buy the dip

— Hoss (@hoss_crypto) November 20, 2025

The collision of whale sales, quantum security concerns, and institutional buying has driven sharp volatility. Investors now face the question of whether the quantum narrative signals real risk or simply profit-taking after Bitcoin’s rally this year.

The next days will show whether institutional support can hold prices steady or if more declines lie ahead as the market processes these risks and the influx of long-term holder supply.

The post Whale Dump Meets Quantum Panic: Bitcoin Slips to $86,000 and Blows $220 Million Longs appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The crypto market has taken a heavy hit over the past month. Total market cap fell from $4.27 trillion on October 6 to $2.98 trillion on November 19, a drop of about 30%. The rebound to $3.12 trillion has not changed the debate — traders remain split.

One group says a deeper bear market is forming. The other says the correction already looks like late-stage weakness. This piece focuses on the second group. Several telltale readings now hint that the crypto bull market could start sooner than expected.

Each of the five reasons below reflects one of three things: peak weakness, peak capitulation, or a rise in fresh buying power. Together, they might be forming one of the strongest early bull cycle setups seen.

Short-Term Selling Pressure Looks Close to Exhaustion

Short-term holders have been selling at one of the fastest paces in months, and this is usually what happens near a bottom.

Bitcoin lettuce hands in losses have been dumping at an accelerated pace.

More signs for a big bounce ahead. pic.twitter.com/uVDgwoPNkP

— Bitcoin Munger (@bitcoinmunger) November 19, 2025

Bitcoin Munger flagged the spike in coins sent to exchanges at a loss, while JA Maartunn highlighted a similar surge on CryptoQuant, with more than 60,000 Bitcoin moved at a loss within hours. This kind of panic selling often marks the “clean-out” phase before a trend shift from bear market vibes.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

The on-chain data confirms it. The short-term holder SOPR fell to 0.96 on November 15, matching the same level from April 7. SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, shows whether coins spent on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. When it drops under 1 and then stabilizes, it often signals that weak holders have already capitulated.

Short-term holders matter because they are the group that reacts the fastest during corrections. They panic-sell earlier, hit stop losses quicker, and usually dump into weakness. This is why short-term selling pressure almost always peaks near market bottoms.

After the April reset, Bitcoin rallied from $76,270 to $123,345 within months, a near 62% move. With SOPR now back at 0.97, the latest drop hints that the selling pressure may be close to burnout.

This sets up the next question: Is fresh buying power building up elsewhere? That’s where the next indicator comes in.

Stablecoin Power Is Building Again 

If short-term sellers are close to exhaustion, the next question is simple: Is there enough fresh buying power to lift prices?

Right now, the stablecoin data says yes.

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped to 11.59, its lowest reading in over a year. SSR compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the total stablecoin supply. When SSR falls, it means stablecoins hold more buying power relative to Bitcoin. Traders sometimes refer to this as “dry powder.”

This level is even lower than the 12.89 reading seen on April 8, the same period when Bitcoin bottomed near $76,276 before rallying for months. Lower SSR means stablecoins can buy more Bitcoin per unit of supply, which usually appears near market lows.

A second confirmation comes from the RSI of SSR, highlighted by analyst Maartunn. It sits near 26, a level that has repeatedly aligned with Bitcoin bottoms during the past bear markets. A low RSI here means stablecoin buying power is oversold relative to Bitcoin’s size — a rare setup that often appears before trend shifts.

Taken together, the rising stablecoin reserves and the deeply compressed SSR show the market has the liquidity needed for a crypto bull market rebound.

Altcoin Profit Reset Might Be Quietly Strengthening the Crypto Bull Market Case

Short-term capitulation and low SSR already show that selling pressure is close to exhaustion. The next layer comes from altcoins, where the reset is even deeper.

Glassnode’s latest data shows that only about 5% of altcoin supply is still in profit, which is a level normally seen during late-stage capitulation. When almost every holder is underwater, the market usually has very little left to sell.

Altcoin relative profits are stabilizing in deep capitulation territory, with only ~5% of supply in profit, while Bitcoin’s profits have just begun to decline sharply.
This unusual divergence between BTC and alts is unprecedented in prior cycles.

📉 https://t.co/IpxEWurY3i pic.twitter.com/HqmUmNwkvF

— glassnode (@glassnode) November 15, 2025

This is similar to Bitcoin’s own wipeout, where 95% of all coins bought in the last 155 days are now underwater — higher than the COVID and FTX crashes.

JUST IN: 95% of all Bitcoin bought in the last 155 days is now underwater

Higher than COVID (92%) and FTX (94%) pic.twitter.com/FHYVdF6MNY

— Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) November 19, 2025

This combination matters because altcoins often stabilize before Bitcoin when profit ratios collapse this sharply. Even though Bitcoin dominance is still near 60%, the gap between Bitcoin’s profit decline and the near-zero altcoin profit level suggests altcoins might be closer to forming a base.

If the crypto bull market does start from a deep reset, altcoins are often the first to respond simply because they have no remaining overhead pressure. This raises the possibility that an altcoin-led phase could start first.

Sentiment Drops to Extreme Fear: Exactly How Bull Markets Start?

After looking at altcoin losses and Bitcoin’s underwater supply, the next piece that ties the crypto bull market story together is sentiment. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index fell to 10 on November 15, marking its lowest reading since February 27, when Bitcoin traded near $84,718. That earlier reading came just weeks before Bitcoin bottomed in April and began the same rally we referenced earlier — the move from $76,276 on April 8 to $123,345 by August 13, a 62% jump.

This new drop to 10 matters because extreme fear usually appears after most of the selling is done. Even during the April rebound, the index only briefly hit 18 and never slipped back to 10. Falling to that range again suggests the market has already gone through its emotional flush.

Industry leaders like Thomas Chen, CEO of Function, also describe this phase as washed-out and emotionally stretched:

“Allocator behavior has tilted sharply toward selloffs with over $2.8B in outflows… it almost feels like it’s moving back to the question: do I even want to hold BTC in this environment? With the Fear and Greed Index at extreme fear, this looks similar to the 2022 Luna crash,” he said.

Coming right after altcoin capitulation and record-low stablecoin ratios, this fear reset strengthens the broader case that the base for the next crypto bull market may be forming.

A Fresh Death Cross Just Finished Playing Out — And Bitcoin Could React?

The final signal pointing toward a possible crypto bull market is the new death cross that formed on November 15. A death cross happens when the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average. Moving averages show the average closing price over a period, so this crossover often highlights trend exhaustion rather than the start of a long crash.

Bitcoin dropped about 17% during the entire “crossing-in” phase, leading to the final signal. This move is almost identical to the 16% drop seen during the April death-cross setup. That April structure played out fully, wiped out weak momentum, and then the April-to-August rally started.

This time, something similar is happening under the surface. The price made a higher low during these two market phases, but the RSI is making a lower low. RSI tracks momentum, and this kind of hidden bullish divergence usually hints that sellers are tiring. It acts like the final pressure release before the uptrend started earlier continues. And this aligns with the peak capitulation theory shared earlier.

Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, pointed out that the recent breakdown reflects a macro-driven flush, not just a chart event.

“Bitcoin’s drop below $90,000 reflects a perfect storm of macro headwinds and profit-taking. Long-term holders have distributed over 815,000 BTC in the past month, the most aggressive selling since 2024,” he highlighted.

If Bitcoin holds above the recent lows, the death cross may end up being another reset rather than a breakdown.

Bitcoin had a death cross today.

Note that prior death crosses marked local lows in the market.

Of course, when the cycle is over, the death cross rally fails.

The time for Bitcoin to bounce if the cycle is not over would be starting within the next week.

If no bounce occurs… pic.twitter.com/Rg8pSxYMva

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) November 16, 2025

That was the case earlier this year, and it is one reason traders think the crypto bull market foundation is quietly forming again. However, if the Bitcoin price doesn’t react soon to this recently formed crossover, the bull market inception might have to wait longer.

The post 5 Reasons the Crypto Bull Market Could Restart Anytime Soon appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Rep. Warren Davidson has introduced the Bitcoin for America Act, aiming to permit federal tax payments in Bitcoin. Collected funds would build a new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which Davidson claims will boost US financial stability and leadership in digital assets.

The proposal follows President Trump’s March 2025 executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, signaling greater congressional interest in formalizing Bitcoin’s role in the federal financial system.

Bill Emphasizes Bitcoin, Sparking Debate Over Market Neutrality

The Bitcoin for America Act stands out for its exclusive focus on Bitcoin, in contrast to more comprehensive frameworks, such as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

Davidson’s bill would let taxpayers pay federal taxes in Bitcoin, channeling those payments directly into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This reserve aims to diversify government holdings beyond traditional assets.

I’m introducing the Bitcoin for America Act to strengthen long-term national financial resilience and position the U.S. at the forefront of global asset leadership!

This marks an important step forward in embracing the innovation that millions of Americans use every day. pic.twitter.com/2JSlaJSVkc

— Rep. Warren Davidson (@Rep_Davidson) November 20, 2025

Davidson highlights Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins as a defense against inflation and volatility. He says the reserve could reduce reliance on debt-financed spending and protect the US from currency devaluation/

According to the Ohio representative, this would give the country an edge over global competitors such as China and Russia, which have developed their own digital asset strategies.

The Bitcoin for America Act will position our country to lead—not follow—as the world navigates the future of sound money and digital innovation.

Read more about my Bitcoin for America Act below!https://t.co/1DqIkbStoG

— Rep. Warren Davidson (@Rep_Davidson) November 20, 2025

However, this Bitcoin-specific approach has sparked criticism. Singling out one cryptocurrency may risk distorting competition and impeding growth in the digital asset space. Critics warn that focusing solely on Bitcoin might limit broader innovation in the digital asset market.

“Why only Bitcoin? This is classic politicians trying to pick winners and losers. We’ve seen enough of this market rigging,” one user challenged.

The plan also introduces practical challenges. The IRS currently treats digital assets as property, requiring taxpayers to report any income from their activities.

Recent IRS guidance has clarified that all income from digital assets must be reported. Accepting Bitcoin for taxes would mean new systems for valuation, conversion, and custody, issues Davidson’s release does not address.

Building on an Executive Foundation

Davidson’s bill extends President Trump’s March 2025 executive order, which created the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile.

The executive order tasked the Treasury Department with overseeing custodial accounts for Bitcoin and digital assets seized in federal cases, instructing officials to retain these assets rather than sell.

The Bitcoin for America Act would introduce a separate acquisition route by accepting voluntary tax payments in Bitcoin. Davidson promotes this as widening taxpayer choice and letting the government hold an appreciating asset.

He presents the reserve as a safeguard against inflation, arguing that Bitcoin’s built-in scarcity makes it advantageous compared to fiat currencies.

Davidson also points to increased financial inclusion. About 5.9 million US households do not use traditional banks, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Crypto advocates argue that digital wallets can serve these individuals, although critics contend that price fluctuations and technical barriers remain obstacles to everyday use.

Legislative Push Reflects Policy Tensions

Davidson introduced the bill in coordination with the Bitcoin Policy Institute, a nonprofit organization that supports Bitcoin adoption.

Davidson represents Ohio’s 8th District, known for its crypto-friendly policy stance. His bill differs from the bipartisan BITCOIN Act of 2025, which outlined strategic reserve management but did not include tax payment paths.

This latest debate reveals underlying questions about the government’s role in shaping digital technology markets.

Supporters say federal adoption confirms Bitcoin’s legitimacy and strengthens the country’s leadership in digital finance. Detractors argue that the government should maintain neutrality, supporting open competition rather than backing single technologies. Whether Congress should favor one cryptocurrency will be a central issue in policy discussions going forward.

As the Bitcoin for America Act moves through Congress, lawmakers will weigh a focused Bitcoin strategy against broader integration of digital assets. Their response could shape U cryptocurrency policy and the future of blockchain innovation nationwide.

The post Is Congress Codifying BTC Maximalism into Law with the Bitcoin for America Act? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The UK’s Serious Fraud Office (SFO) made its first major arrests in a cryptocurrency case, detaining two men in London and Bradford over an alleged $28 million fraud linked to the collapse of the Basis Markets scheme.

The November 20, 2025, operation marks a pivotal shift in UK crypto enforcement. Authorities are expanding efforts to counter sophisticated digital asset crime.

UK SFO Launches Landmark Crypto Investigation

The Serious Fraud Office announced the arrests of one man in his thirties in Herne Hill, London, and another in his forties near Bradford. Raids, conducted in collaboration with the Metropolitan and West Yorkshire Police, focused on fraud and money laundering linked to the Basis Markets scheme.

This investigation is the SFO’s first significant step into crypto crime, reflecting its growing strategy against digital asset fraud. The joint operation highlights the unique challenges of prosecuting cases that involve blockchain technology and NFTs.

SFO Director Nick Ephgrave confirmed the agency has developed specialized resources targeting cryptocurrency fraud. With digital asset schemes increasing, these capabilities are seen as critical for investor protection.

Solicitor General Ellie Reeves stated that such fraudulent activity poses a serious threat to the UK economy. She pledged government backing for enforcement, warning that crypto fraud erodes trust in the financial sector.

The SFO called for victims and whistleblowers to contact [email protected]. This public appeal suggests authorities anticipate more victims and that the case could set important legal precedents.

The Rise and Collapse of Basis Markets

Basis Markets raised $28 million through two public NFT-based fundraisers in late 2021, capitalizing on the surge in NFT market activity that year. The first, in November 2021, focused on NFT sales, promising investors a stake in a new crypto investment vehicle.

The second offering came in December 2021, with funds intended to create a “crypto hedge fund” that employs advanced trading strategies. Investor momentum was high, as NFT sales and enthusiasm for crypto projects peaked during this period.

However, in June 2022, the project abruptly halted. Organizers cited “proposed US regulations” as the reason for its suspension just as US agencies were rolling out broader scrutiny of NFT and crypto fundraising practices.

This collapse left investors unable to access the $28 million raised. The project’s timing, coinciding with broader crypto market downturns in 2022, raised concerns that regulatory changes may not fully explain the failure.

NFT-based fundraising became a common approach in 2021, with projects leveraging digital collectibles to attract capital.

US Treasury research shows that about 65% of NFT fraud cases involve misleading marketing. This significant rate of fraud underlines the regulatory and enforcement challenges facing authorities.

Implications for UK Crypto Enforcement

The Basis Markets probe comes as the UK intensifies efforts against digital asset-related crime. The Crown Prosecution Service’s Economic Crime Strategy 2025, published in May 2025, identified cryptocurrency and cyber-enabled fraud as high-priority threats that require multi-agency coordination.

Authorities have appointed operational leads for cryptoasset recovery and created frameworks to boost cooperation between the CPS, SFO, and law enforcement.

These reforms show a recognition that new tools and strategies are needed to address blockchain-based financial crime.

The SFO’s move to prosecute crypto-related cases aligns with a global trend of increased enforcement against digital asset fraud.

Worldwide, regulators are scrutinizing fundraising methods that blur lines between securities, collectibles, and investments. The Basis Markets case could help define how UK courts approach crypto fraud charges going forward.

Social media reaction highlights investor attention to enforcement. Bitcoin Archive highlighted the significance of the SFO’s pursuit of large-scale crypto prosecutions with this investigation.

JUST IN: 🇬🇧 UK begins large crypto prosecutions with first major investigation, arresting two men over $28 million Basis Markets NFT sale: Press release. pic.twitter.com/UerYhrtH8k

— Coin Headlines (@coinheadline) November 20, 2025

This case signals greater regulatory risk for digital asset fundraisers that lack legal clarity. The SFO’s willingness to pursue complicated crypto cases sends a message that regulatory uncertainty will not protect those accused of fraud.

The outcome of this prosecution could shape how aggressively the UK approaches future crypto crime as the sector evolves.

The post UK Makes First Major Crypto Arrests in $28 Million Basis Markets Scandal appeared first on BeInCrypto.

FG Nexus menjual Ethereum senilai US$32,7 juta untuk mendanai pembelian kembali saham setelah sahamnya jatuh 94% dalam empat bulan, menyoroti krisis nilai aset bersih (NAV) yang semakin dalam di antara perusahaan treasury aset digital.

Penjualan ini mengikuti penjualan ETH senilai US$40 juta oleh ETHZilla pada bulan Oktober, menyoroti tekanan yang meningkat di seluruh sektor yang mengelola lebih dari US$42,7 miliar dalam aset kripto. Gelombang penjualan terpaksa ini menunjukkan kerentanan dalam model treasury kripto perusahaan, saat perusahaan bergulat dengan saham yang diperdagangkan di bawah nilai aset dasar mereka.

Perusahaan Treasury Alihkan Penjualan Aset di Tengah Kejatuhan Saham

FG Nexus mengungkapkan penjualan 10.922 ETH pada bulan Oktober untuk mendukung pembelian kembali saham senilai US$200 juta. Perusahaan mulai membeli kembali saham setelah sahamnya jatuh tajam di bawah NAV, ukuran nilai aset dasar per saham kripto. FG Nexus mempertahankan 40.005 ETH dan US$37 juta dalam bentuk uang tunai, dengan total utang naik menjadi US$11,9 juta, pada hari Rabu.

Perusahaan membeli kembali 3,4 juta saham dengan harga sekitar US$3,45 per saham, mewakili 8% dari saham yang beredar. Manajemen menekankan bahwa saham dibeli dengan diskon terhadap NAV, yang mencapai US$3,94 per saham pada pertengahan November. Namun, strategi ini memerlukan sekitar US$10 juta dalam bentuk utang dan likuidasi 21% dari cadangan ETH jika dibandingkan dengan level pada bulan September.

FG Nexus Sold $32.7M in $ETH: Treasury Companies Are Starting to Sell

🔹 FG Nexus sold $32.7M in ETH (10922 ETH)
🔹 Now holds around 40,005 ETH
🔹 Other DAT companies are also reducing their ETH positions
🔹 $FGNX Stock down -94% in 4 months

Their stock is also down 94% in the… pic.twitter.com/A0hXYQaKk3

— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) November 20, 2025

FG Nexus adalah salah satu dari beberapa perusahaan treasury aset digital yang mengejar penjualan kripto. ETHZilla mengumumkan penjualan ETH sekitar US$40 juta untuk memfasilitasi pembelian kembali saham pada akhir Oktober. Perusahaan membeli 600.000 saham dengan nilai hampir US$12 juta sejak 24 Oktober, mencari bantuan dari diskon 30% yang gigih terhadap NAV.

Ketika saham perusahaan DAT diperdagangkan dengan diskon terhadap nilai kepemilikan kripto mereka (mNAV di bawah 1,0), pemegang saham mendorong manajemen untuk menyadari nilai tersembunyi tersebut. Cara paling efektif untuk melakukan ini adalah melalui pembelian kembali saham, tetapi memperoleh dana yang diperlukan untuk membeli kembali saham memerlukan uang tunai. Jika perusahaan kekurangan cadangan uang tunai yang cukup, mereka harus menjual beberapa aset kripto mereka untuk membiayai pembelian kembali tersebut.

mNAV Metaplanet, perusahaan DAT yang mengumpulkan Bitcoin, turun menjadi 0,99 sebelum pulih menjadi 1,03. Sahamnya kehilangan 70% sejak puncaknya di bulan Juni, menandakan tekanan di seluruh sektor. Penggunaan ekuitas preferen abadi, yang menggabungkan dividen tetap dengan eksposur kripto, semakin mempersulit struktur modal yang sudah tertekan oleh kondisi pasar saat ini.

Struktur Leverage Memperkuat Tekanan Pasar

Perusahaan DAT menggelontorkan US$42,7 miliar dalam kripto selama 2025, dengan US$22,6 miliar terakumulasi di Q3 saja. Ekspansi ini dipercepat ketika Bitcoin reli di atas US$126.000 pada bulan Oktober, memicu lingkaran umpan balik positif dan penilaian yang meningkat. Namun, pembalikan selanjutnya mengungkapkan kelemahan dalam struktur modal yang dibangun di atas leverage dan akses pasar modal.

Perusahaan treasury hanya mewakili 0,83% dari total kapitalisasi pasar kripto. Namun, konsentrasi kepemilikan mereka memperbesar dampak selama penurunan. Leverage melalui catatan konversi, kesepakatan PIPE, dan ekuitas preferen abadi meningkatkan tekanan jual ketika harga jatuh atau diskon NAV melebar.

Likuiditas pasar menurun tajam saat harga aset turun. Kedalaman buku pesanan Bitcoin pada rentang 1% turun dari US$20 juta menjadi US$14 juta—penurunan sebesar 33% yang meningkatkan sensitivitas harga terhadap penjualan apa pun. Analis memperkirakan penjualan terpaksa oleh perusahaan treasury bisa mencapai US$4 miliar hingga US$6 miliar jika 10% hingga 15% dari posisi terlikuidasi, berpotensi melebihi aliran keluar ETF bulan November sebesar US$2,33 miliar.

Risiko Sistemik Meningkat saat Pembelian Berhenti

Pembelian kripto oleh perusahaan mandek karena menurunnya kepercayaan dan pengurangan pengeluaran modal. Perusahaan yang pernah menawarkan permintaan stabil sekarang menjual, membalikkan siklus positif sebelumnya. Saham MicroStrategy turun 60% di tengah volatilitas Bitcoin, menunjukkan risiko korelasi antara harga kripto dan nilai ekuitas bahkan untuk perusahaan dengan neraca yang solid.

Perusahaan treasury yang lebih kecil berada di bawah tekanan yang meningkat, terutama yang memegang aset kurang likuid. Beberapa perusahaan yang terpapar Solana mengalami penurunan NAV sebesar 40% saat taruhan terkonsentrasi memperdalam kerugian. Kurangnya diversifikasi dan volume perdagangan tipis dalam kripto alternatif menambah kerentanan sektor yang lebih luas.

Oof. BitMine is down $3.7 BILLION on its massive $ETH bet.

That's the risk of being a Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) company!

Question: Will we see more firms try this, or is this a flashing red warning for corporate crypto treasuries? $ETH ETFs are looming… pic.twitter.com/emOvzQQQTD

— DrBullZeus (@DrBullZeus) November 20, 2025

Investor ritel juga berkontribusi pada penjualan dengan mengurangi posisinya jauh sebelumnya, mengurangi permintaan pasar saat pemegang institusi mulai melakukan likuidasi. Pada bulan November, aliran keluar ETF senilai US$4 miliar dan aktivitas pembuat pasar yang berkurang meningkatkan volatilitas. Kondisi ini mirip dengan crash pasar yang didorong oleh leverage yang terlihat di kelas aset lain, seperti krisis REIT hipotek tahun 2008.

Krisis yang semakin bertambah ini menantang ketahanan model treasury aset digital dalam penurunan berkepanjangan. Manajemen risiko yang ketat dan pengawasan regulasi mungkin diperlukan untuk mencegah penjualan yang saling memperkuat dari mengguncang pasar yang lebih luas. Dalam beberapa minggu mendatang, kemampuan perusahaan-perusahaan ini untuk mempertahankan kepemilikan kripto mereka tanpa likuidasi paksa lebih lanjut akan menentukan apakah sektor ini bertahan utuh atau mengalami restrukturisasi mendasar.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading near $0.156, down almost 19% over the past month and 11% in the past week. While a few large-cap coins are trying to build early recovery signs, the Dogecoin price is doing the opposite. The trend still tilts lower, and the signals forming on the chart and on-chain point to weakness rather than relief.

The short-term structure shows why the Dogecoin (DOGE) price weakness may continue before any meaningful upside can develop.

---

Momentum Weakens As Hidden Bearish Divergence Forms

The clearest problem sits in the momentum data. Between Nov. 15 and Nov. 18, the Dogecoin price made a lower high, but the RSI made a higher high. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures whether buying or selling pressure is strong. When RSI climbs while the price makes a lower high, it forms a hidden bearish divergence.

Traders treat this as a continuation warning, meaning the existing downtrend still has room.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This weakness becomes more convincing when you look at long-term DOGE holders. Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change shows how many coins held for more than 155 days are moving. These wallets usually sell only when conviction collapses.

On Nov. 9, long-term holders were distributing about 62.35 million DOGE. By Nov. 19, that figure had grown to 237.20 million DOGE. That is a sharp increase of nearly 175 million DOGE in ten days, a 280% jump. This reflects a clear rise in long-term selling pressure.

Taken together, momentum is weakening, and holders with strong hands are stepping back. That combination makes short-term rebounds easy to fade. All while exposing downside risks.

---

Dogecoin Price Faces More Downside Unless Key Levels Break

The Dogecoin price continues to lean lower along its trend structure, so the next supports come from the trend-based projection levels. The first important level sits at $0.150, which has repeatedly acted as a short-term floor. Losing this support could push the price toward $0.140 and even $0.127 if broader market sentiment softens.

On the upside, the Dogecoin price needs to reclaim $0.163 to pause the bearish pattern. A clean move above $0.163 would shift momentum enough to target $0.186, the next major resistance on the chart. Until that happens, the downtrend remains intact, and every bounce carries the risk of fading.

For now, the overall picture stays simple. The trend is negative, the momentum favors sellers, and long-term holders are still distributing. Unless Dogecoin starts reclaiming key levels, the DOGE price trend is likely to continue — just not in the direction Long traders are hoping for.

The post Dogecoin Price Looks Set For Another Leg — Up Isn’t The Likely Direction appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Penurunan harga terbaru Bitcoin telah mengungkap perbedaan tajam dalam perdagangan, dengan sesi AS mendorong penjualan sementara trader Asia terus membeli saat harga turun. Data menunjukkan sesi Amerika telah menjadi periode terlemah untuk harga Bitcoin.

Perbedaan ini menyoroti selera risiko yang kontras dan memicu debat tentang apakah Bitcoin mengalami koreksi sehat atau menghadapi masalah struktural yang lebih dalam.

Perdagangan AS Dorong Penjualan Bitcoin, Asia Serap Pasokan

Aktivitas harga minggu ini mencerminkan tren yang jelas: jam perdagangan AS menunjukkan kerugian yang terus-menerus, dengan sesi Eropa mengalami penurunan yang lebih kecil. Sebaliknya, pasar Asia-Pasifik tetap relatif stabil dan sering mendukung pemulihan harga. Data menunjukkan jendela perdagangan AS memainkan peran sentral dalam penurunan pasar baru-baru ini.

Salah seorang pengguna X berkomentar, “Setiap sesi Amerika terdiri dari penjualan tanpa henti selama berjam-jam. Kemudian orang Asia bangun dan membeli semuanya kembali hingga orang Amerika bangun. Seperti jam meskipun”. Interaksi ini telah menjadi fitur reguler dari dinamika perdagangan saat ini.

Perpecahan ini mungkin berasal dari perbedaan sentimen risiko di berbagai wilayah. Penjualan AS mungkin disebabkan oleh kehati-hatian terhadap sinyal ekonomi makro, perubahan kebijakan, atau likuiditas. Sebaliknya, banyak trader Asia melihat penurunan sebagai peluang membeli, baik karena yakin terhadap prospek Bitcoin atau karena pendekatan investasi yang bervariasi.

Likuiditas dan kedalaman pasar juga berperan. Perdagangan AS membawa volume tinggi, sehingga penjualan besar dapat sangat mempengaruhi pergerakan harga global. Ketika trader Amerika lebih suka menjual, harga global turun hingga pembeli Asia masuk dan memulihkan keseimbangan.

Juga patut dicatat bahwa investor ritel umumnya bearish, sementara whale bullish dan institusi AS bearish. Indeks Premium Coinbase, yang mencerminkan sentimen kelembagaan AS, tetap berada di wilayah negatif hampir sepanjang bulan November.

Pemain Institusi Ubah Siklus Tradisional Bitcoin

Analis on-chain Ki Young Ju memberikan pandangan mendetail tentang lanskap pasar saat ini. Dia mencatat bahwa siklus bull Bitcoin secara teknis berakhir lebih awal pada tahun 2024 setelah mencapai US$100.000. Teori siklus tradisional akan menyarankan harga turun menuju US$56.000 untuk menetapkan titik rendah siklus baru.

If you are not trading futures and only holding Bitcoin spot, this looks like a reasonable long-term accumulation zone.

To be fair, from an on-chain cycle perspective, the bull cycle technically ended earlier this year when Bitcoin touched around $100K.

In classic cycle…

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 20, 2025

Penyerap institusional semacam itu menciptakan batas harga virtual, karena pemegang utama dengan keyakinan kuat tidak mungkin menjual selama penurunan. Model tradisional menganggap sebagian besar peserta mungkin menyerah dalam fase bearish, tapi perbendaharaan korporat strategis menantang asumsi itu.

Nampaknya, beberapa orang memperingatkan bahwa konsentrasi menciptakan risiko baru. Jika lembaga menghadapi tekanan keuangan atau mengubah strategi, setiap penjualan besar dapat mengganggu pasar. Namun, sejauh ini, mereka tetap berkomitmen untuk memegang dan mengumpulkan Bitcoin.

Pakar Melihat Koreksi Sehat dalam Reli Bull Market yang Sedang Berlangsung

Chris Kuiper, wakil presiden penelitian di Fidelity Digital Assets, melihat koreksi baru-baru ini dalam perspektif positif. Dia menggambarkan penurunan ini sebagai penyesuaian standar dalam pasar bull yang lebih besar, bukan tanda bahwa siklus telah berakhir.

Analisis Kuiper menggunakan sinyal on-chain, seperti rasio MVRV untuk holder jangka pendek. Statistik ini menunjukkan bahwa harga saat ini menguji keyakinan pembeli baru, mencerminkan koreksi sebelumnya yang mendahului reli lebih lanjut. Ini menunjukkan bahwa mereka yang baru-baru ini membeli menghadapi kerugian yang belum direalisasi sebelum pasar mengatur ulang dan tren lebih tinggi.

Tidak adanya peristiwa utama negatif mendukung interpretasinya. Tidak ada tindakan regulasi signifikan, kegagalan bursa, atau kejutan makro yang memicu koreksi. Sebaliknya, pengambilan keuntungan dan likuidasi leverage setelah reli Bitcoin menuju US$100.000 nampaknya menjadi penyebab utama.

Is this a local bottom for #bitcoin and other digital assets?

I as well as anyone never knows for sure, but one chart I do like to use to help gauge the probabilities is the short-term holder MVRV chart along with their cost basis (first chart).

Note that if this indeed is a… pic.twitter.com/B66onRgEgl

— Chris Kuiper, CFA (@ChrisJKuiper) November 19, 2025

Trader sekarang menimbang dua skenario. Perpecahan antara pembeli Asia yang optimistis dan penjual AS yang berhati-hati dapat teratasi jika sentimen Amerika membaik atau berlanjut jika struktur pasar global bergeser lebih jauh. Tren makro yang lebih luas—seperti langkah-langkah likuiditas pemerintah dan perubahan regulasi—kemungkinan menentukan jalur mana yang akan diambil pasar dalam beberapa bulan mendatang.

Zcash mengalami lonjakan yang kuat dalam beberapa minggu terakhir seiring meningkatnya permintaan untuk privacy coin di pasar. Kenaikan ZEC menonjol karena memiliki korelasi terbatas dengan Bitcoin, memungkinkannya untuk bergerak secara independen selama periode volatilitas.

Perilaku unik ini meningkatkan minat baru dan memperkuat momentum naik ZEC.

Zcash Itu Independen

Korelasi Zcash dengan Bitcoin saat ini berada di -0,78, menunjukkan hubungan negatif yang kuat. Ini berarti ZEC bergerak berlawanan arah dengan BTC, yang sangat menguntungkan ketika Bitcoin diperdagangkan mendekati US$90.000 setelah beberapa hari mengalami penurunan. Kemampuan ZEC untuk melepaskan diri dari BTC memungkinkannya menghindari koreksi pasar yang lebih luas.

Korelasi negatif ini tetap terjaga sejak awal November, memperkuat ketahanan ZEC. Selama korelasinya tetap di bawah nol, Zcash akan kurang rentan terhadap penjualan yang didorong oleh Bitcoin.

Ingin lebih banyak wawasan tentang token seperti ini? Daftar untuk Newsletter Kripto Harian Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Indikator makro juga menunjukkan kondisi yang menguntungkan. Peta likuidasi Zcash mengungkapkan bahwa pemain short harus berhati-hati dalam memasuki pasar. Jika ZEC naik ke US$788, sekitar US$51 juta posisi short bisa terlikuidasi. Ini menciptakan insentif tambahan bagi trader untuk menghindari strategi bearish.

Klaster likuidasi besar seringkali mencegah posisi short dan dapat mendorong kenaikan lebih lanjut karena likuidasi paksa memperkuat pergerakan harga. Untuk ZEC, mencapai level ini akan menggoyahkan sentimen bearish dan memberikan dukungan tambahan untuk terus mengapresiasi nilai.

Harga ZEC Masih Banyak Ruang Untuk Tumbuh

Zcash diperdagangkan pada US$671, tepat di bawah level resistance US$700. Altcoin ini telah naik 65,5% sejak awal bulan. Hal ini mencerminkan partisipasi pasar yang kuat dan minat yang meningkat dari trader ritel dan institusional.

Jika momentum berlanjut, ZEC bisa naik menuju US$1.000, yang berada 49% di atas level saat ini. Mencapai target ini dalam 10 hari mungkin jika dukungan investor tetap konsisten. Untuk mencapai US$1.000, ZEC harus terlebih dahulu menembus dan mengubah level US$700, US$800, dan US$900 menjadi support.

Namun, jika tekanan jual meningkat, ZEC bisa kehilangan momentum dan jatuh ke US$600. Koreksi yang lebih dalam dapat mendorong harga menuju US$520, membatalkan tesis bullish saat ini dan membuat altcoin rentan terhadap penurunan.

XRP turun 5% minggu ini saat penurunan berlanjut meskipun minat institusional terus meningkat. Altcoin ini kesulitan untuk pulih, bahkan dengan dua ETF XRP yang sudah aktif dan dua lagi yang dijadwalkan diluncurkan minggu depan.

Ketidaksesuaian ini menimbulkan pertanyaan mengapa aksi harga tetap lemah.

Whale XRP Sedang Menjual

Aktivitas whale memberikan penjelasan paling jelas atas kelemahan ini. Holder besar terus menjual sepanjang minggu ini, menambah tekanan turun pada XRP. Dalam 48 jam terakhir saja, wallet yang memegang antara 1 juta hingga 10 juta XRP telah menjual lebih dari 250 juta token, yang nilainya melebihi US$528 juta.

Whale sangat berpengaruh karena kemampuannya untuk menggeser likuiditas dan sentimen. Penjualan yang berkelanjutan dari holder ini menunjukkan kurangnya kepercayaan terhadap prospek jangka dekat. Jika penjualan berlanjut, bisa memperdalam penurunan XRP, terutama saat harga mendekati level support utama.

Ingin mendapatkan wawasan token lebih banyak seperti ini? Daftar untuk Newsletter Kripto Harian Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Namu, momentum makro menggambarkan gambaran yang lebih bervariasi. Alamat XRP baru melonjak dalam seminggu terakhir, mencapai titik tertinggi bulanan. Kenaikan ini tampaknya terkait dengan peluncuran ETF Caanary Capital (XRPC) dan ETF Bitwise (XRP), yang keduanya mendorong partisipasi baru di jaringan.

Aliran dana tambahan diharapkan ketika Grayscale’s XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) dan ETF XRP dari Franklin Templeton (XRPZ) aktif pada hari Senin. Peluncuran ini diperkirakan mendorong pengguna baru untuk memasuki pasar, menawarkan penyeimbang penjualan whale dan memberikan dukungan potensial bagi stabilitas harga di masa depan.

Harga XRP Terus Turun

XRP diperdagangkan pada US$2,11 pada waktu publikasi, mempertahankan support di US$2,08. Aset ini menandai titik terendah bulanan dan menghadapi sentimen campuran karena sinyal yang bertentangan dari whale dan pendatang baru. Stabilitas harga akan tergantung pada apakah modal baru dapat mengimbangi penjualan yang terus berlangsung.

Jika aliran masuk dari alamat baru berlanjut, ini dapat mengimbangi penjualan whale baru-baru ini. Ini bisa membantu XRP bangkit kembali di atas US$2,20 dan mendorong menuju US$2,28. Permintaan yang didorong oleh ETF memiliki potensi untuk memulihkan momentum jangka pendek dan mendorong akumulasi.

Jika XRP jatuh di bawah support US$2,08, risiko ke bawah meningkat. Harga bisa jatuh ke US$2,02 atau tergelincir di bawah US$2,00 jika penjualan meningkat. Penurunan semacam ini akan membatalkan tesis bullish dan mencerminkan pergeseran sentimen pasar yang lebih dalam.

Laporan terbaru oleh Kerberus, sebuah perusahaan keamanan Web3, menunjukkan bahwa perilaku manusia kini menjadi risiko utama dalam Web3.

BeInCrypto berbicara dengan CEO perusahaan tersebut, Alex Katz, dan CTO, Danor Cohen, untuk memahami mengapa pengguna terus jatuh korban serangan dan apa yang bisa mereka lakukan untuk melindungi diri dengan lebih baik.

Kesalahan Manusia Sebabkan Kerugian Web3 Besar, Laporan Kerberus Temukan 

Dalam laporan terbarunya berjudul “The Human Factor – Real-Time Protection Is the Unsung Layer of Web3 Cybersecurity (2025),” Kerberus mengungkapkan bahwa serangan yang berfokus pada manusia adalah vektor paling berbahaya dalam Web3.

Laporan ini menyebutkan data yang menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar kerugian industri berasal dari kesalahan pengguna. Sekitar 44% dari pencurian kripto di 2024 diakibatkan oleh salah pengelolaan kunci pribadi. Penelitian lain menunjukkan bahwa kesalahan manusia terlibat dalam sekitar 60% pelanggaran keamanan.

Dengan 820 juta wallet aktif di 2025, lanskap ancaman berkembang cepat, dan semua orang tetap berisiko. Katz menyampaikan kepada BeInCrypto bahwa pelaku jahat menargetkan baik pemula maupun pengguna berpengalaman, namun dengan alasan yang sangat berbeda.

“Pengguna baru menarik karena mereka belum memahami seperti apa perilaku ‘normal’ Web3,” ujar dia

Menariknya, eksekutif tersebut menyatakan bahwa pengguna lama semakin menjadi target bernilai tinggi dibandingkan pemula. Menurutnya,

“Pengguna veteran berinteraksi dengan lebih banyak dApps, menyetujui lebih banyak transaksi, dan memindahkan jumlah yang lebih besar. Itu berarti momen kecerobohan bisa menyebabkan kerugian lebih besar. Jadi, kelompok yang paling berisiko hari ini adalah mereka yang mengira mereka tidak berisiko.”

Cohen menambahkan bahwa salah satu kesalahpahaman terbesar dalam Web3 adalah kepercayaan bahwa kegagalan keamanan berasal dari pengguna yang tidak memahami teknologi. Analisisnya menunjukkan hal yang sebaliknya. Orang-orang dibobol karena sistem menempatkan beban yang tidak realistis pada mereka.

“Pengguna berpikir, ‘Saya terlalu pintar untuk terjebak, saya tahu bagaimana wallet bekerja – saya aman.’ Namun, lanskap ancaman berubah lebih cepat daripada pengguna. Penyerang tidak berusaha mengakali wallet Anda; mereka mencoba mengakali Anda. Dan mereka sangat mahir melakukannya. Apa yang kurang dipahami orang adalah bahwa Web3 memberikan beban kognitif yang besar pada individu. Pengguna tidak harus mengurai sinyal teknis untuk tetap aman – keamanan harus bekerja untuk mereka secara otomatis,” terang Cohen.

Mengapa Pengguna Web3 Pintar Tetap Kehabisan Dana di 2025

Risiko yang didorong oleh manusia ini terus bertahan meskipun terdapat pengeluaran rekor untuk keamanan di 2025. Laporan Kerberus menyebutkan bahwa layanan terkait kripto dan investor kehilangan lebih dari US$3,1 miliar akibat peretasan dan penipuan pada paruh pertama tahun ini. Jumlah ini sudah lebih banyak dibanding total sepanjang 2024.

Angka itu termasuk pelanggaran Bersejarah Bybit. Tanpa memasukkan ini, serangan yang menargetkan manusia seperti phishing dan rekayasa sosial masih mencapai US$600 juta. Ini mewakili 37% dari kerugian sisa US$1,64 miliar.

Laporan tersebut mencatat bahwa serangan ini berkembang seiring dengan adopsi yang meningkat dan sepenuhnya melewati pertahanan teknis. Ini membuat sulit bagi model keamanan tradisional untuk mencegahnya.

Sementara perusahaan berinvestasi besar-besaran dalam audit, pemantauan, dan peninjauan kode, penyerang semakin mengeksploitasi pengguna langsung di tingkat transaksi. Tapi apa yang membuat manusia begitu rentan terhadap serangan ini?

“Manusia rentan karena setiap penipuan dirancang untuk mengeksploitasi jalan pintas psikologis alami—rasa urgensi, otoritas, keakraban, ketakutan akan kehilangan, atau kenyamanan dengan rutinitas. Ini bukanlah kekurangan; ini adalah naluri yang sama yang memungkinkan kita berfungsi dalam kehidupan sehari-hari. Teknologi saja tidak dapat mengubah psikologi manusia, tetapi dapat menangkap momen ketika psikologi sedang dipersenjatai,” papar Cohen. 

Dia menekankan bahwa bentuk perlindungan terkuat bukanlah bergantung pada pengguna untuk menghindari kesalahan melalui pendidikan saja, melainkan mencegah tindakan berbahaya secara real-time sebelum kerusakan terjadi.

“Itu sebabnya deteksi real-time sangat penting. Jika Anda bisa memperingatkan pengguna tepat pada saat mereka sedang dimanipulasi, Anda bisa menghentikan sebagian besar kerugian sebelum terjadi,” tambah Cohen.

Eksekutif itu mencatat bahwa tidak realistis untuk mengharapkan pengguna sehari-hari untuk membedakan antara dApp berbahaya, airdrop, atau halaman mint. Platform penipuan modern seringkali sangat mirip dengan yang sah. Ini membuat mereka hampir tidak bisa dibedakan.

Dia menambahkan bahwa pengguna bisa terus mengklik tautan phishing. Mereka tidak melakukannya karena ceroboh, tetapi karena serangan tersebut dengan sengaja dirancang untuk menipu.

Bahkan peringatan real-time kadang terlihat seperti positif palsu, menyoroti sifat maju dari penipuan ini.

“Pengguna seharusnya tidak diharapkan untuk melakukan pemeriksaan forensik. Beban harus bergeser ke alat yang menganalisis maksud dan perilaku secara real-time,” saran Cohen.

Laporan ini juga menyatakan bahwa serangan ini mengeksploitasi momen ketika pengguna paling tidak mampu menilai ancaman. Ini bisa terjadi saat seseorang memeriksa wallet mereka saat terganggu saat bekerja, bereaksi terhadap pesan mendesak yang mengklaim akun mereka akan dibekukan, atau menyetujui transaksi pada akhir hari yang panjang ketika mereka kelelahan.

Menurut temuan tersebut, respons industri sebagian besar adalah dengan menambahkan lebih banyak peringatan dan langkah verifikasi. Namun pendekatan ini seringkali berbalik arah akibat “kelelahan keamanan.” Ketika pengguna terbiasa dengan peringatan yang terus-menerus—banyak di antaranya adalah alarm palsu yang hanya memperlambat mereka—kemampuan mereka untuk membuat keputusan yang hati-hati berkurang di bawah tekanan kognitif yang terus-menerus.

3 Tindakan yang Dapat Diambil Pengguna untuk Lebih Aman di Web3

Untuk mengurangi kerugian di dunia nyata, Katz mengungkapkan tiga praktik yang dapat diadopsi pengguna. Dia menyarankan pengguna untuk:

• Berhenti sejenak sebelum menandatangani: Kompromi biasanya terjadi dalam waktu kurang dari sepuluh detik. Meluangkan waktu sebentar untuk membaca prompt atau memastikan apakah permintaan sesuai dengan tindakan yang dimaksud bisa mencegah sebagian besar serangan yang berhasil.
• Pisahkan aset bernilai tinggi dari aktivitas sehari-hari: Menggunakan beberapa wallet tetap menjadi salah satu pengaman paling efektif. Dia menyarankan agar pengguna menyimpan kepemilikan jangka panjang mereka di wallet dingin atau low-touch dan menggunakan wallet terpisah untuk penjelajahan, mint, dan decentralized application. Pembagian ini membatasi potensi kerusakan.
• Andalkan perlindungan transaksi real-time: Karena banyak ancaman melibatkan rekayasa sosial daripada eksploitasi teknis, pengguna diuntungkan dari alat yang menginterpretasikan tindakan on-chain sebelum diselesaikan. Lapisan pertahanan tunggal ini memblokir banyak penipuan yang lebih canggih.

Tujuannya, ujar dia, bukan untuk menjadikan pengguna ahli keamanan, tapi membangun batas perlindungan yang mencegah kesalahan berubah menjadi kerugian finansial.

Harga XRP turun di bawah level psikologis US$2,00, mengunjungi kembali level yang terakhir kali terlihat saat crash pada 10 Oktober.

Bitcoin turun di bawah US$87.000 pada 20 November 2025, di tengah badai kekhawatiran keamanan kuantum dan kapitulasi whale senilai US$1,3 miliar. Dalam prosesnya, hampir US$220 juta dari posisi long hancur.

Penurunan tajam ini memperpanjang pola dua hari dari lonjakan di Asia yang terhapus oleh penjualan di pasar AS. Para trader kesulitan dengan sinyal campuran dari pembeli institusi dan gelombang kepanikan ritel.

Panik Komputasi Kuantum Picu Ketakutan Pasar Secara Keseluruhan

Penjualan terbaru dipercepat setelah miliarder Ray Dalio mengungkapkan kekhawatirannya tentang kerentanan Bitcoin terhadap kemajuan komputasi kuantum.

Pernyataan tersebut menyalakan kembali perdebatan di komunitas kripto dan memusatkan perhatian pada risiko keamanan kriptografi.

“Saya memiliki sejumlah kecil Bitcoin yang sudah saya miliki sejak lama, sekitar 1% dari portofolio saya. Saya pikir masalah dengan Bitcoin adalah bahwa itu tidak akan menjadi mata uang cadangan untuk negara-negara besar karena dapat dilacak, dan dapat dikendalikan, diretas, dan sebagainya,” ujar Ray Dalio menyatakan.

Namun, analis pasar menolak narasi panik kuantum ini. Mel Mattison, seorang analis keuangan, berpendapat bahwa ketakutan ini terlalu berlebihan dan mengabaikan kriptografi kuat milik Bitcoin dibandingkan dengan bank tradisional.

“Jika orang menjual BTC karena dekripsi kuantum, mereka seharusnya menjual habis semua bank di planet ini. JPM seharusnya turun 20%. Semua akun akan bisa diretas. BTC adalah SHA-256, yang lebih tangguh daripada RSA,” respon Mel Mattison menentang.

Perdebatan ini mencerminkan perbedaan signifikan dalam cara investor menilai risiko teknologi jangka panjang. Sementara Dalio menyoroti kerentanan teoretis seiring perkembangan komputasi kuantum, kritik menyatakan bahwa SHA-256 Bitcoin memberikan keamanan lebih kuat dibandingkan standar RSA yang digunakan oleh sebagian besar bank.

Jika komputer kuantum menimbulkan ancaman bagi Bitcoin, perbankan global mungkin menghadapi risiko yang lebih besar lagi.

Pengadopsi Awal Bitcoin Keluar Dengan Penjualan Senilai US$1,3 Miliar

Menambah kekhawatiran keamanan kuantum, firma analitik blockchain Arkham melaporkan kapitulasi besar-besaran. Owen Gunden, seorang pengadopsi awal Bitcoin yang mengumpulkan kepemilikannya sejak 2011, menjual seluruh 11.000 BTC miliknya senilai sekitar US$1,3 miliar.

OWEN GUNDEN HAS NOW SOLD ALL OF HIS $1.3 BILLION BITCOIN

Owen Gunden was an OG Bitcoin whale who held BTC since 2011. Since late October he has sold 11K BTC worth $1.3 billion.

He has just transferred $230M of BTC to Kraken, marking his final sale. pic.twitter.com/m0gQWCHrxZ

— Arkham (@arkham) November 20, 2025

Keputusan Gunden untuk keluar terjadi pada saat yang genting untuk sentimen. Menurut data dari BeInCrypto, Bitcoin diperdagangkan pada US$86.767 pada update terbaru, turun 2,55% selama 24 jam.

Keputusan whale ini untuk menjual setelah 14 tahun menyoroti pergeseran dari kebiasaan memegang jangka panjang. Alasan di baliknya tidak jelas, apakah karena untuk mengambil keuntungan, penyeimbangan kembali, atau kekhawatiran tentang prospek Bitcoin.

Namun, penjualan tersebut menambah pasokan ekstra ke pasar yang sudah oversold dan memperdalam penurunan harga.

Kaskade Likuidasi Massif Mempercepat Penurunan

Ketakutan kuantum dan penjualan whale memicu gelombang likuidasi besar di seluruh exchange. Data dari CoinGlass menunjukkan lebih dari US$910 juta posisi kripto terlikuidasi dalam 24 jam, mengusir 222.008 trader.

Selama satu jam di awal perdagangan AS, likuidasi long melonjak menjadi US$264,79 juta sementara short mencapai US$256,44 juta.

Penutupan paksa ini menyoroti leverage yang signifikan di pasar kripto dan bagaimana cepat posisi dapat berbalik selama pergerakan pasar yang tajam.

Gelombang ini juga mengungkapkan kelemahan struktural dalam derivatif kripto. Saat Bitcoin turun dari lebih dari US$91.000 menjadi US$86.000 dalam 48 jam, trader leverage menghadapi panggilan margin dan posisi mereka ditutup secara otomatis.

Penjualan otomatis ini menciptakan penurunan harga lebih lanjut dan likuidasi tambahan, memicu siklus volatilitas.

Pembeli Institusional Kembali Meski Kepanikan Ritel

Meski terjadi penjualan, ETF (exchange-traded fund) Bitcoin AS mencatat net inflow sebesar US$75 juta pada hari Rabu, mengakhiri rentetan outflow selama lima hari.

IBIT milik BlackRock dan mini ETF milik Grayscale berkontribusi pada seluruh aliran masuk tersebut, menunjukkan bahwa beberapa investor institusi melihat penurunan ini sebagai kesempatan untuk membeli.

Namun, sentimen di antara penerbit ETF tetap beragam. VanEck, Fidelity, dan penerbit besar lainnya melaporkan arus datar atau negatif, menunjukkan optimisme hati-hati.

Perpecahan ini menyoroti pandangan yang beragam di pasar Bitcoin. Beberapa institusi melihat level saat ini bernilai, sementara yang lain ragu-ragu karena ketidakpastian jangka pendek.

buy the dip

— Hoss (@hoss_crypto) November 20, 2025

Tabrakan antara penjualan whale, kekhawatiran keamanan kuantum, dan pembelian institusional telah mendorong volatilitas tajam. Investor kini menghadapi pertanyaan apakah narasi kuantum menunjukkan risiko nyata atau sekadar pengambilan untung setelah reli Bitcoin tahun ini.

Hari-hari berikutnya akan menunjukkan apakah dukungan institusional dapat menjaga harga tetap stabil atau jika penurunan lebih lanjut akan terjadi saat pasar memproses risiko ini dan masuknya pasokan holder jangka panjang.

Pada bulan lalu, pasar aset kripto terkena dampak besar. Kapitalisasi pasar total turun dari US$4,27 triliun pada 6 Oktober menjadi US$2,98 triliun pada 19 November, penurunan sekitar 30%. Rebound ke US$3,12 triliun belum mengubah perdebatan — para trader tetap terbagi.

Satu kelompok mengatakan pasar bearish yang lebih dalam sedang terbentuk, sementara kelompok lain mengatakan koreksi ini sudah tampak seperti kelemahan akhir. Artikel ini berfokus pada kelompok kedua. Beberapa indikator sekarang mengisyaratkan bahwa pasar bullish aset kripto bisa dimulai lebih cepat dari yang diperkirakan.

Masing-masing dari lima alasan di bawah ini mencerminkan satu dari tiga hal: kelemahan puncak, puncak kapitulasi, atau peningkatan dalam kekuatan beli baru. Bersama-sama, mereka bisa membentuk salah satu setup awal siklus bullish terkuat yang pernah ada.

Tekanan Jual Jangka Pendek Nampaknya Hampir Habis

Holder jangka pendek telah menjual dengan salah satu kecepatan tercepat dalam beberapa bulan, dan ini biasanya terjadi di dekat titik terendah.

Bitcoin lettuce hands in losses have been dumping at an accelerated pace.

More signs for a big bounce ahead. pic.twitter.com/uVDgwoPNkP

— Bitcoin Munger (@bitcoinmunger) November 19, 2025

Bitcoin Munger menandai lonjakan koin yang dikirim ke exchange dengan kerugian, sementara JA Maartunn menyoroti lonjakan serupa di CryptoQuant, dengan lebih dari 60.000 Bitcoin dipindahkan dengan kerugian dalam beberapa jam. Jenis penjualan panik ini sering menandai fase “pembersihan” sebelum pergeseran tren dari suasana pasar bearish.

Ingin lebih banyak wawasan token seperti ini? Daftar ke Newsletter Crypto Harian Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Data on-chain mengonfirmasi hal ini. SOPR holder jangka pendek turun ke 0,96 pada 15 November, menyamai level yang sama dari 7 April. SOPR, atau Spent Output Profit Ratio, menunjukkan apakah koin yang digunakan on-chain dijual dengan keuntungan atau kerugian. Ketika turun di bawah 1 dan kemudian stabil, itu sering menandakan bahwa holder lemah sudah kapitulasi.

Holder jangka pendek penting karena mereka adalah kelompok yang bereaksi paling cepat saat koreksi terjadi. Mereka panik menjual lebih awal, terjebak stop loss lebih cepat, dan biasanya dump saat ada kelemahan. Inilah sebabnya tekanan jual jangka pendek hampir selalu mencapai puncaknya di dekat titik terendah pasar.

Setelah reset April, Bitcoin reli dari US$76.270 ke US$123.345 dalam beberapa bulan, kenaikan hampir 62%. Dengan SOPR sekarang kembali di 0,97, penurunan terbaru mengisyaratkan bahwa tekanan jual mungkin mendekati titik akhir.

Ini menimbulkan pertanyaan berikutnya: Apakah ada kekuatan beli baru yang sedang terbentuk di tempat lain? Itulah di mana indikator berikutnya masuk.

Kekuatan Stablecoin Sedang Membangun Lagi

Jika penjual jangka pendek mendekati kelelahan, pertanyaan selanjutnya sederhana: Apakah ada cukup kekuatan beli baru untuk meningkatkan harga?

Saat ini, data stablecoin mengatakan ya.

Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) telah turun ke 11,59, pembacaan terendah dalam lebih dari setahun. SSR membandingkan kapitalisasi pasar Bitcoin dengan total pasokan stablecoin. Ketika SSR turun, artinya stablecoin memegang lebih banyak kekuatan beli relatif terhadap Bitcoin. Para trader kadang menyebut ini sebagai “peluru kering.”

Level ini bahkan lebih rendah dari pembacaan 12,89 yang terlihat pada 8 April, periode yang sama ketika Bitcoin mencapai titik terendah di sekitar US$76.276 sebelum reli selama berbulan-bulan. SSR yang lebih rendah berarti stablecoin dapat membeli lebih banyak Bitcoin per unit pasokan, yang biasanya muncul di dekat titik terendah pasar.

Konfirmasi kedua datang dari RSI SSR, yang disorot oleh analis Maartunn. Ada di sekitar 26, level yang berulang kali selaras dengan titik terendah Bitcoin selama pasar bearish sebelumnya. RSI yang rendah di sini berarti kekuatan beli stablecoin terjual berlebihan relatif terhadap ukuran Bitcoin — setup langka yang sering muncul sebelum pergeseran tren.

Kenaikan cadangan stablecoin dan SSR yang sangat terkompresi menunjukkan bahwa pasar memiliki likuiditas yang dibutuhkan untuk rebound pasar bull kripto.

Profit Altcoin Mungkin Diam-Diam Menguatkan Kasus Reli Pasar Bull Crypto

Kapitulasi jangka pendek dan SSR rendah sudah menunjukkan bahwa tekanan jual hampir habis. Lapisan berikutnya datang dari altcoin, di mana reset-nya bahkan lebih dalam.

Data terbaru dari Glassnode menunjukkan bahwa hanya sekitar 5% dari pasokan altcoin yang masih untung, yang merupakan tingkat yang biasanya terlihat selama tahap akhir kapitulasi. Ketika hampir setiap holder merugi, pasar biasanya memiliki sedikit sekali yang bisa dijual.

Altcoin relative profits are stabilizing in deep capitulation territory, with only ~5% of supply in profit, while Bitcoin’s profits have just begun to decline sharply.
This unusual divergence between BTC and alts is unprecedented in prior cycles.

📉 https://t.co/IpxEWurY3i pic.twitter.com/HqmUmNwkvF

— glassnode (@glassnode) November 15, 2025

Ini mirip dengan pembersihan Bitcoin, di mana 95% dari semua koin yang dibeli dalam 155 hari terakhir sekarang mengalami kerugian — lebih tinggi daripada crash COVID dan FTX.

JUST IN: 95% of all Bitcoin bought in the last 155 days is now underwater

Higher than COVID (92%) and FTX (94%) pic.twitter.com/FHYVdF6MNY

— Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) November 19, 2025

Kombinasi ini penting karena altcoin sering kali stabil sebelum Bitcoin ketika rasio untung turun tajam seperti ini. Meskipun dominan Bitcoin masih mendekati 60%, jarak antara penurunan keuntungan Bitcoin dan tingkat keuntungan altcoin yang mendekati nol menunjukkan altcoin mungkin lebih dekat untuk membentuk dasar.

Jika pasar bull kripto dimulai dari reset yang dalam, altcoin sering kali menjadi yang pertama merespons karena mereka tidak memiliki tekanan overhead yang tersisa. Ini meningkatkan kemungkinan bahwa fase yang dipimpin oleh altcoin bisa dimulai lebih dulu.

Sentimen Turun ke Ketakutan Ekstrem: Apakah Ini Cara Bull Market Dimulai?

Setelah melihat kerugian altcoin dan pasokan Bitcoin yang merugi, bagian berikutnya yang mengaitkan cerita bull market kripto adalah sentimen. Indeks Fear & Greed Bitcoin turun ke 10 pada 15 November, menandai bacaan terendahnya sejak 27 Februari, ketika Bitcoin diperdagangkan di dekat US$84.718. Bacaan sebelumnya datang hanya beberapa minggu sebelum Bitcoin mencapai titik terendah pada bulan April dan memulai reli yang sama yang kami sebutkan sebelumnya — pergerakan dari US$76.276 pada 8 April menjadi US$123.345 pada 13 Agustus, lompatannya sebesar 62%.

Penurunan baru ke 10 ini penting karena ketakutan ekstrem biasanya muncul setelah sebagian besar penjualan selesai. Bahkan selama rebound April, indeks hanya mencapai 18 sebentar dan tidak pernah jatuh kembali ke 10. Jatuh ke rentang itu lagi menandakan bahwa pasar sudah melalui pencucian emosionalnya.

Pemimpin industri seperti Thomas Chen, CEO Function, juga menggambarkan fase ini sebagai sudah tercuci dan emosional:

“Perilaku allocator telah condong tajam ke arah selloff dengan lebih dari US$2,8B arus keluar… hampir terasa seperti kembali ke pertanyaan: apakah saya bahkan ingin memegang BTC di lingkungan ini? Dengan Fear and Greed Index pada ketakutan ekstrem, ini terlihat mirip dengan crash Luna 2022,” ucapnya.

Datang tepat setelah kapitulasi altcoin dan rasio stablecoin yang paling rendah, reset ketakutan ini memperkuat argumen yang lebih luas bahwa dasar untuk pasar bull kripto berikutnya mungkin sedang terbentuk.

Death Cross Baru Selesai — Akankah Bitcoin Bereaksi?

Sinyal terakhir yang menunjuk ke kemungkinan pasar bull kripto adalah death cross baru yang terbentuk pada 15 November. Death cross terjadi ketika rata-rata bergerak 50-hari jatuh di bawah rata-rata bergerak 200-hari. Rata-rata bergerak menunjukkan harga penutupan rata-rata selama periode, jadi crossover ini sering kali menyoroti kelelahan tren alih-alih awal dari crash panjang.

Bitcoin turun sekitar 17% selama seluruh fase “crossing-in”, menghasilkan sinyal terakhir. Langkah ini hampir identik dengan penurunan 16% yang terlihat selama setup death cross April. Struktur April itu terwujud sepenuhnya, menghapus momentum lemah, lalu reli April hingga Agustus dimulai.

Kali ini, sesuatu yang serupa terjadi di bawah permukaan. Harga membuat titik terendah yang lebih tinggi selama dua fase pasar ini, tapi RSI membuat titik terendah yang lebih rendah. RSI melacak momentum, dan divergensi bullish tersembunyi seperti ini biasanya mengisyaratkan bahwa penjual sudah lelah. Ini bertindak seperti pelepasan tekanan terakhir sebelum uptrend yang dimulai sebelumnya berlanjut. Dan ini selaras dengan teori kapitulasi puncak yang dibagikan sebelumnya.

Fred Thiel, CEO MARA Holdings, mengemukakan bahwa penurunan baru-baru ini mencerminkan pencucian yang didorong oleh faktor makro, bukan hanya peristiwa grafik.

“Penurunan Bitcoin di bawah US$90.000 mencerminkan badai sempurna dari hambatan makro dan pengambilan keuntungan. Pemegang jangka panjang telah mendistribusikan lebih dari 815.000 BTC dalam sebulan terakhir, penjualan paling agresif sejak 2024,” terang dia.

Jika Bitcoin bertahan di atas titik terendah terbaru, death cross dapat berakhir sebagai reset lain daripada breakdown.

Bitcoin had a death cross today.

Note that prior death crosses marked local lows in the market.

Of course, when the cycle is over, the death cross rally fails.

The time for Bitcoin to bounce if the cycle is not over would be starting within the next week.

If no bounce occurs… pic.twitter.com/Rg8pSxYMva

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) November 16, 2025

Hal ini terjadi awal tahun ini, dan ini adalah salah satu alasan mengapa trader berpikir dasar pasar bull kripto sedang terbentuk kembali dengan diam-diam. Namun, jika harga Bitcoin tidak segera merespons crossover yang baru-baru ini terbentuk ini, awal pasar bull harus menunggu lebih lama.

Rep. Warren Davidson telah memperkenalkan Bitcoin for America Act, bertujuan untuk mengizinkan pembayaran pajak federal dengan Bitcoin. Dana yang terkumpul akan membangun Strategic Bitcoin Reserve baru, yang Davidson klaim akan meningkatkan stabilitas keuangan AS dan kepemimpinan dalam aset digital.

Usulan ini mengikuti perintah eksekutif Presiden Trump pada Maret 2025 yang menciptakan Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, menandakan minat kongres yang lebih besar dalam memformalkan peran Bitcoin dalam sistem keuangan federal.

Bill Menekankan Bitcoin, Picu Perdebatan Tentang Netralitas Pasar

Bitcoin for America Act menonjol karena fokus eksklusifnya pada Bitcoin, berbeda dengan kerangka kerja yang lebih komprehensif, seperti Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

RUU Davidson akan membiarkan wajib pajak membayar pajak federal dengan Bitcoin, mengarahkan pembayaran tersebut langsung ke Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Cadangan ini bertujuan untuk mendiversifikasi kepemilikan pemerintah melampaui aset tradisional.

I’m introducing the Bitcoin for America Act to strengthen long-term national financial resilience and position the U.S. at the forefront of global asset leadership!

This marks an important step forward in embracing the innovation that millions of Americans use every day. pic.twitter.com/2JSlaJSVkc

— Rep. Warren Davidson (@Rep_Davidson) November 20, 2025

Davidson menyoroti pasokan tetap Bitcoin sebesar 21 juta koin sebagai pertahanan terhadap inflasi dan volatilitas. Dia mengatakan cadangan ini dapat mengurangi ketergantungan pada pembiayaan dengan utang dan melindungi AS dari devaluasi mata uang.

Menurut perwakilan dari Ohio, ini akan memberikan keunggulan bagi negara tersebut atas pesaing global seperti Cina dan Rusia, yang telah mengembangkan strategi aset digital mereka sendiri.

The Bitcoin for America Act will position our country to lead—not follow—as the world navigates the future of sound money and digital innovation.

Read more about my Bitcoin for America Act below!https://t.co/1DqIkbStoG

— Rep. Warren Davidson (@Rep_Davidson) November 20, 2025

Namun, pendekatan khusus Bitcoin ini telah memicu kritik. Memilih satu mata uang kripto dapat berisiko mengganggu persaingan dan menghambat pertumbuhan di ruang aset digital. Para kritikus memperingatkan bahwa berfokus hanya pada Bitcoin mungkin membatasi inovasi yang lebih luas di pasar aset digital.

“Mengapa hanya Bitcoin? Ini adalah politisi klasik yang mencoba memilih pemenang dan pecundang. Kami sudah cukup melihat manipulasi pasar ini,” tantang seorang pengguna .

Rencana ini juga memperkenalkan tantangan praktis. IRS saat ini memandang aset digital sebagai properti, yang mengharuskan wajib pajak untuk melaporkan pendapatan dari aktivitas mereka.

Panduan IRS baru-baru ini telah memperjelas bahwa semua pendapatan dari aset digital harus dilaporkan. Menerima Bitcoin untuk pajak berarti sistem baru untuk penilaian, konversi, dan penyimpanan, yang masalah-masalah ini tidak diatasi dalam rilis Davidson.

Membangun di atas Executive Foundation

RUU Davidson memperpanjang perintah eksekutif Maret 2025 Presiden Trump, yang menciptakan Strategic Bitcoin Reserve dan US Digital Asset Stockpile.

Perintah eksekutif tersebut menugaskan kepada Departemen Keuangan untuk mengawasi akun kustodian untuk Bitcoin dan aset digital yang disita dalam kasus federal, dan mengarahkan pejabat untuk mempertahankan aset-aset ini daripada menjualnya.

Bitcoin for America Act akan memperkenalkan jalur akuisisi terpisah dengan menerima pembayaran pajak secara sukarela dalam Bitcoin. Davidson mempromosikan ini sebagai memperluas pilihan wajib pajak dan memungkinkan pemerintah memegang aset yang nilainya meningkat.

Dia mengajukan cadangan ini sebagai perlindungan terhadap inflasi, berargumen bahwa kelangkaan bawaan Bitcoin membuatnya lebih menguntungkan dibandingkan mata uang fiat.

Davidson juga menunjukkan inklusi keuangan yang meningkat. Sekitar 5,9 juta rumah tangga AS tidak menggunakan bank tradisional, menurut Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Para pendukung kripto berpendapat bahwa dompet digital dapat melayani individu-individu ini, meskipun para kritikus berpendapat bahwa fluktuasi harga dan hambatan teknis tetap menjadi kendala untuk penggunaan sehari-hari.

Dorongan Legislatif Cerminkan Ketegangan Kebijakan

Davidson memperkenalkan RUU ini dalam koordinasi dengan Bitcoin Policy Institute, sebuah organisasi nirlaba yang mendukung adopsi Bitcoin.

Davidson mewakili Distrik 8 Ohio, yang dikenal dengan kebijakan yang ramah kripto. RUU-nya berbeda dari BITCOIN Act 2025 yang bipartisan, yang merinci manajemen cadangan strategis tetapi tidak menyertakan jalur pembayaran pajak.

Perdebatan terbaru ini mengungkapkan pertanyaan mendasar tentang peran pemerintah dalam membentuk pasar teknologi digital.

Pendukung mengatakan bahwa adopsi federal menegaskan legitimasi Bitcoin dan memperkuat kepemimpinan negara dalam digital finance. Pihak yang berseberangan berpendapat bahwa pemerintah seharusnya menjaga netralitas, mendukung persaingan terbuka daripada mendukung satu teknologi. Apakah Kongres harus mendukung satu mata uang kripto akan menjadi isu sentral dalam diskusi kebijakan ke depan.

Seiring Bitcoin for America Act bergerak melalui Kongres, para legislator akan menimbang strategi Bitcoin yang fokus dibandingkan dengan integrasi yang lebih luas dari aset digital. Respons mereka dapat membentuk kebijakan kripto AS dan masa depan inovasi blockchain di seluruh negeri.