Koreksi tajam Bitcoin dari US$110.000 ke sekitar US$80.000 terkait dengan penjualan besar oleh whale awal dengan basis biaya mendekati US$16.000. CEO CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju menjelaskan bahwa metrik on-chain menunjukkan Bitcoin kini berada pada fase “shoulder” dalam siklusnya, dan ini menunjukkan potensi kenaikan jangka pendek yang terbatas.

Penjualan ini mengalahkan permintaan institusi dari ETF dan MicroStrategy, membentuk prospek aset kripto tahun 2025. Dalam sebuah wawancara dengan Upbit’s Upbitcare, Ju memberikan pandangan berbasis data tentang perubahan lanskap bagi investor Bitcoin dan kekuatan yang memengaruhi struktur pasar saat ini.

Whale Bitcoin Awal Memicu Tekanan Jual

Ki Young Ju menjelaskan bahwa pasar saat ini dibentuk oleh kompetisi antara dua kelompok whale utama. Whale lama, yang memegang Bitcoin dengan biaya rata-rata mendekati US$16.000, telah mulai memperoleh keuntungan besar, menjual dengan laju yang diukur dalam ratusan juta US$ setiap hari. Penjualan yang terus-menerus ini telah memberikan tekanan besar pada harga Bitcoin.

Di saat yang sama, whale institusi melalui spot ETF Bitcoin dan MicroStrategy telah mengakumulasi posisi yang signifikan. Namun, kekuatan membeli mereka tidak sebanding dengan besarnya penjualan whale awal. Menurut Ju, wallet yang memegang lebih dari 10.000 BTC selama lebih dari 155 hari biasanya memiliki biaya rata-rata sekitar US$38.000. Trader Binance masuk posisi sekitar US$50.000, jadi banyak peserta pasar yang sudah untung dan bisa menjual jika diperlukan.

CEO CryptoQuant mengatakan bahwa aliran masuk spot ETF dan MicroStrategy telah meningkatkan pasar di awal tahun 2025. Namun, aliran tersebut kini sudah menurun. Aliran keluar mulai mendominasi lanskap pasar. Misalnya, data dari Farside Investors menunjukkan ETF Bitcoin mencatatkan arus masuk bersih sebesar US$42,8 juta pada 26 November 2025, meningkatkan arus masuk kumulatif menjadi US$62,68 miliar. Meski dengan angka-angka ini, penjualan berkelanjutan dari whale awal mengalahkan akumulasi institusi.

Analisis Siklus Pasar Isyaratkan Kenaikan Terbatas

Metrik profit-and-loss on-chain menawarkan wawasan penting tentang siklus pasar. Analisis Ju menggunakan indeks PnL dengan rata-rata bergerak 365 hari menunjukkan bahwa pasar telah memasuki fase “shoulder”. Status akhir siklus ini menunjukkan potensi pertumbuhan yang terbatas dan peningkatan risiko koreksi.

Pengganda valuasi mencerminkan pandangan netral-ke-rata. Dalam siklus sebelumnya, setiap US$ baru mendorong pertumbuhan kapitalisasi pasar yang lebih besar. Sekarang, efek pengganda itu telah memudar. Ini menunjukkan leverage pasar kurang efisien, dan struktur tidak mendukung keuntungan yang signifikan.

Ju tidak mengharapkan penurunan dramatis sebesar 70-80%. Namun, menurutnya koreksi hingga 30% masih masuk akal. Penurunan dari US$100.000 bisa berarti Bitcoin jatuh ke sekitar US$70.000. Ia menggunakan data dari rasio long-short futures OKX, rasio leverage exchange, dan pola arus jual-beli untuk mendukung pandangan ini.

Ju menekankan pentingnya pendekatan berbasis data. Dalam sebuah posting terbaru, ia mendorong trader untuk menggunakan metrik untuk keyakinan, bukan spekulasi. Fokusnya tetap pada interpretasi data on-chain, aktivitas exchange, dan struktur pasar.

Never trade without data. pic.twitter.com/JnAtLwpdGa

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 27, 2025

Analisis komprehensif ini menyediakan penilaian yang berdasar berdasarkan bukti on-chain. Karena whale Bitcoin awal terus menjual untuk mendapatkan keuntungan, institusi menghadapi lingkungan yang sulit. Dengan rasio leverage yang tinggi, pengganda valuasi yang netral, dan posisi akhir siklus, pasar memiliki potensi terbatas untuk reli besar dalam waktu dekat.

Soneium, a Layer-2 blockchain platform by Sony Block Solutions Labs, announced a partnership with IRC APP, the official app for one of Japan’s largest idol and fashion festivals, Idol Runway Collection (IRC).

The collaboration will bring the IRC onto Soneium’s AI-powered IPFi infrastructure to transform global fan engagement through measurable, rewarding on-chain contributions. Asia’s entertainment industry has become a trailblazer in fan participation, a trend that is now taking hold in Western markets.

Sony’s Blockchain Infrastructure for Entertainment

The IRC, Japan’s largest idol and fashion hybrid festival, is hosted by YOAKE entertainment and has expanded its scale through a collaboration with Tokyo Girls Collection (TGC). IRC has already established itself as a success, attracting approximately 11,800 attendees and 107 idol groups to its 2025 event. 

The core goal of the partnership is redefining fan engagement by valuing and rewarding measurable on-chain contributions across the J-Pop fandom. This collaboration will unlock the creative community’s economic potential, starting with the world’s second-largest music market.

The core of fan engagement is within the IRC mobile app. This AI-powered app evaluates positive, consistent, supportive posts made by fans on platforms such as X (formerly Twitter). The measured engagement is converted into “IRC Score,” which is automatically claimed to fans’ on-chain wallets without gas fees.

This accumulated score determines a user’s Membership rank—Regular, Bronze, Silver, or Gold—with each tier offering progressively enhanced real-world benefits for IRC 2026, scheduled for March 15, 2026, in Tokyo, including early ticket access, priority entry, and premium venue invitations. It also enables the on-chain Fan Vote, which directly shapes tangible aspects of the IRC 2026 event. This measurable fandom contribution system will expand beyond idol culture into new creative frontiers such as anime and fashion.

Sony launched its Soneium blockchain mainnet on January 14, 2025, setting a new standard for production-grade Web3 services focused on entertainment, gaming, and intellectual property protection. This public Layer-2 network uses Ethereum’s OP Stack, inheriting its security while offering lower transaction fees and higher throughput. Sony Block Solutions Labs designed Soneium to support scalable applications for digital communities and creative industries.

Asian Entertainment Companies Pioneer Fan Ownership Models

This is not the first time Asian entertainment companies have tried Web3-related projects. In Korea, girl group tripleS has made blockchain a core source of revenue. Produced by Modhaus and formed as a 24-member group, tripleS lets fans use NFTs and utility tokens to influence unit composition and song selection. Fans purchase NFT objects to gain Komos token voting power in the COSMO app, creating a system of transparent, participatory governance.

This model enabled tripleS to generate revenue even before its debut, providing members with compensation comparable to that of large companies. Production exceeded 10 billion KRW ($6.8 million), and early NFT sales helped cash flow, offering a fairer distribution than typical idol group contracts. TripleS stands out as a case where blockchain drives fan co-creation and transparent value sharing in entertainment.

China’s entertainment platforms are rapidly adopting superfan-driven community models that resemble Web3 economics even without blockchain. HYBE’s expansion through Tencent Music and Alibaba shows how direct messaging, authenticated merchandise, and integrated fan services strengthen ownership-like engagement. This environment naturally supports large-scale Web3-style participation economies.

Tencent Music’s superfan ecosystem illustrates this shift with Bubble surpassing 2.3 million paying subscribers. G-DRAGON’s Macau shows drew 36,000 attendees and 7 million simultaneous online viewers, proving the power of hybrid fan engagement. Merchandise, tiered subscriptions, and the expansion of long-form audio show China building a multi-channel superfan economy aligned with Web3 principles.

Lessons From Failed Web3 Entertainment Experiments

Failures have existed, too. Momentrica, an NFT platform by Dunamu and HYBE, closed on July 2, 2025, after posting an operating loss of 13 billion KRW ($8.88 million USD)and a net loss of 12.3 billion KRW in the last reported year. Although HYBE artists’ digital collectibles sparked initial interest, Momentrica struggled due to a lack of long-term utility or sustained fan participation amid the broader NFT market downturn. Precisely, the platform only offered NFTs as static digital goods, not as engagement tools.

The contrast between Momentrica and tripleS highlights a key difference in Web3 entertainment. Momentrica provided digital collectibles without voting rights, participation, or ongoing utility. In contrast, tripleS used blockchain at its core, granting fans voting rights and engagement options. The lesson is clear: successful Web3 in entertainment requires participation architectures, not just digital merchandise.

Sony’s Soneium appears poised to avoid Momentrica’s pitfalls by supporting high-volume, participation-based applications. Its scalable Layer-2 network is built for voting, reward distribution, and community engagement. Whether entertainment companies create effective participation models on this infrastructure will determine if Sony’s blockchain strategy succeeds where others have failed.

The post Sony Takes the Baton in Asia’s Entertainment–Web3 Convergence appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin’s sharp correction from $110,000 to around $80,000 is linked to heavy selling by early whales with cost bases near $16,000. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju notes that on-chain metrics indicate Bitcoin is now in the “shoulder” phase of its cycle, suggesting limited short-term upside potential.

This selling is overwhelming institutional demand from ETFs and MicroStrategy, shaping the cryptocurrency’s 2025 outlook. In an interview with Upbit’s Upbitcare, Ju provides a data-driven look at the shifting landscape for Bitcoin investors and the forces affecting its current market structure.

Early Bitcoin Whales Fuel Selling Pressure

Ki Young Ju explains that today’s market is shaped by a contest between two main whale groups. Legacy whales, holding Bitcoin with an average cost basis near $16,000, have begun to realize hefty profits, selling at a rate measured in hundreds of millions of USD each day. This persistent selling has exerted intense downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

At the same time, institutional whales via spot Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy have accumulated significant positions. Yet, their buying power has not matched the scale of early whales’ sell-offs. According to Ju, wallets holding over 10,000 BTC for more than 155 days typically have an average cost basis of around $38,000. Binance traders entered positions around $50,000, so many market participants are in profit and can sell if needed.

The CryptoQuant CEO points out that spot ETF and MicroStrategy inflows had boosted the market earlier in 2025. However, those flows have now declined. Outflows have started to dominate the market landscape. For example, data from Farside Investors showed Bitcoin ETFs recorded $42.8 million in net inflows on November 26, 2025, lifting cumulative inflows to $62.68 billion. Despite these figures, the sustained selling from early whales outweighs institutional accumulation.

Market Cycle Analysis Signals Limited Upside

On-chain profit-and-loss metrics offer crucial insights into market cycles. Ju’s analysis using the PnL index with a 365-day moving average reveals that the market has entered a “shoulder” phase. This late-cycle status indicates constrained growth potential and increased risk of a correction.

The valuation multiplier reflects a neutral-to-flat outlook. In previous cycles, each new dollar drove amplified market-cap growth. Now, that multiplier effect has faded. This suggests market leverage is less efficient, and the structure does not support significant gains.

Ju does not expect a dramatic 70-80% crash. Still, he considers corrections up to 30% reasonable. A drop from $100,000 could mean Bitcoin falling to about $70,000. He uses data from OKX futures long-short ratios, exchange leverage ratios, and buy-sell flow patterns to support this view.

Ju underscores the importance of a data-driven approach. In a recent post, he urged traders to use metrics for conviction, not speculation. His focus remains on interpreting on-chain data, exchange activity, and market structure.

Never trade without data. pic.twitter.com/JnAtLwpdGa

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 27, 2025

This comprehensive analysis provides a grounded assessment based on on-chain evidence. As early Bitcoin whales continue to sell at profits, institutions face a harsh climate. With high leverage ratios, neutral valuation multipliers, and a late-cycle stance, the market has limited potential for a major rally in the near future.

The post Bitcoin Downtrend Driven by Early Whale Selling, Says Ki Young Ju appeared first on BeInCrypto.