Harga XRP sedang mendekati titik keputusan penting menjelang akhir tahun 2025. Harga masih lemah di timeframe yang lebih besar, turun hampir 16% secara bulanan. Tapi mulai terlihat celah pada tekanan jual. Indikator momentum dan data on-chain kini menunjukkan penjual mulai kehilangan kendali, meskipun harga belum mengonfirmasi pembalikan tren.

Sekarang, situasinya bukan lagi soal menebak reli. Ini tentang apakah berkurangnya tekanan jual cukup kuat untuk mendorong harga XRP menembus dinding suplai yang sudah dikenal. Dan dinding itu masih menjadi faktor penting.

Penjual Mulai Kehilangan Kontrol?

Tanda-tanda awal rebound terlihat di chart 12 jam, di mana pergeseran tren sering kali muncul lebih dulu.

Antara 21 November dan 18 Desember, harga XRP mencetak lower low. Pada periode yang sama, RSI justru membuat higher low. RSI (Relative Strength Index) mengukur momentum. Ketika harga turun tetapi RSI naik, ini memberi sinyal bullish divergence.

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Pola ini menunjukkan, walaupun harga XRP terus turun, kekuatan penjualan mulai melemah. Para penjual masih aktif, tetapi mereka sudah tidak mampu mendorong momentum lebih rendah dengan kekuatan yang sama.

Data on-chain pun mendukung pergeseran ini.

Data XRP HODLer Net Position Change melacak apakah holder jangka panjang menambah atau menjual koin. Pada 11 Desember, penjualan bersih sempat mencapai sekitar 216,9 juta XRP. Lalu pada 18 Desember, angka ini turun menjadi sekitar 132,2 juta XRP.

Artinya, tekanan jual harian berkurang sekitar 39%.

Sederhananya, penjual masih ada, namun jauh lebih sedikit koin yang masuk ke pasar. Ini sejalan dengan bullish divergence di RSI dan memperkuat argumen bahwa tekanan jual mulai memudar.

Hal ini tidak menjamin akan terjadi reli. Tetapi, kondisi pasar tidak lagi sepenuhnya dikuasai penjual.

Mengapa Satu Level Harga XRP Masih Menentukan Hasilnya

Meskipun tekanan jual semakin berkurang, XRP masih menghadapi ujian struktur besar di atasnya.

Data cost basis on-chain menunjukkan adanya klaster suplai besar antara US$1,96 hingga US$1,97. Sekitar 1,82 miliar XRP telah terakumulasi di zona ini. Data cost basis merekam di mana holder membeli koin mereka. Saat harga kembali ke level tersebut, banyak holder mencapai titik impas dan cenderung menjual.

Ini membuat rentang US$1,96–US$1,97 sebagai zona resistance yang kuat.

Chart harga pun menegaskan hal ini. Harga XRP berulang kali gagal bertahan di atas US$1,96, dan rebound juga selalu tertahan di area yang sama. Jika terbentuk pantulan dari level saat ini, di sinilah kemungkinan besar penjual akan muncul lagi.

Agar rebound benar-benar berubah menjadi pergeseran tren yang nyata, harga XRP harus mampu mencetak penutupan harian yang jelas di atas US$1,96. Tanpa konfirmasi tersebut, setiap pergerakan naik berisiko menjadi reli gagal berikutnya.

Pada sisi bawah, US$1,76 tetap menjadi level konfirmasi pembatalan utama. Jika harga menembus di bawah level ini, kemungkinan besar kendali penjual akan kembali, dan potensi penurunan bisa semakin dalam.

Intinya sudah jelas. Tekanan jual turun tajam, dan momentum bergerak membaik. Tapi, sampai XRP menembus US$1,96 dengan yakin, pasar masih terjebak di antara penjual yang melemah dan dinding suplai yang tangguh.

XRP price is nearing a critical decision point as 2025 approaches its final stretch. Price remains weak on higher timeframes, almost 16% down month-on-month. But cracks are starting to appear in selling pressure. Momentum indicators and on-chain data now suggest that sellers are losing control, even though price has not yet confirmed a reversal.

The setup is no longer about guessing a rally. It is about whether fading sell pressure is enough to push the XRP price through a known supply wall. And that wall still matters.

Sellers Are Losing Control?

Early signs of a rebound are showing up on the 12-hour chart, where trend shifts often appear first.

Between November 21 and December 18, the XRP price made a lower low. During the same period, the RSI made a higher low. RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures momentum. When price falls, but RSI improves, it signals bullish divergence.

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This pattern suggests that, although the XRP price continued to decline, the selling momentum weakened. Sellers were still active, but they were no longer able to push momentum lower with the same force.

On-chain data supports this shift.

The XRP HODLer Net Position Change tracks whether long-term holders are adding or selling coins. On December 11, net selling peaked at roughly 216.9 million XRP. By December 18, that figure dropped to about 132.2 million XRP.

That is a decline of roughly 39% in daily selling pressure.

In simple terms, sellers are still present, but far fewer coins are being pushed onto the market. This aligns with the RSI divergence and strengthens the case that downside pressure is fading.

This does not guarantee a rally. But it does mean the market is no longer in full control of sellers.

Why One XRP Price Level Still Decides the Outcome

Even if selling pressure continues to ease, XRP still faces a major structural test overhead.

On-chain cost basis data shows a heavy supply cluster between $1.96 and $1.97. Around 1.82 billion XRP were accumulated in this zone. Cost basis data tracks where holders bought their coins. When price returns to those levels, many holders reach break-even and tend to sell.

This makes the $1.96–$1.97 range a powerful resistance zone.

The price chart confirms this. The XRP price has repeatedly failed to hold above $1.96, and rebounds have stalled near the same area. If a bounce develops from current levels, this is where sellers are most likely to reappear.

For the rebound to become a genuine trend shift, the XRP price must post a clean daily close above $1.96. Without that confirmation, any upside move risks becoming another failed rally.

On the downside, $1.76 remains the key invalidation level. A break below it would suggest that seller control is returning, opening the door to deeper losses.

The takeaway is clear. Selling pressure has dropped sharply, and momentum is improving. But until XRP clears $1.96 with conviction, the market remains trapped between weakening sellers and a stubborn supply wall.

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Pi Coin price is showing early signs of support after a sharp mid-December drop. Since the December 16 low, Pi Coin has bounced over 8%, helped by steady exchange-side buying.

But while buying pressure has picked up, not all capital groups are convinced yet. The result is a market caught between support and hesitation, setting up a likely range move rather than a clean breakout. Right now, Pi Coin sits at a crossroads where inflows are improving, but conviction remains uneven.

Buying Pressure Builds as Capital Flows Turn Supportive

Exchange wallet data shows clear net buying over the past 24 hours.

Across major centralized exchanges, Pi Coin recorded a net outflow of roughly 414,420 PI, meaning more tokens left exchanges than entered. That usually points to buying rather than selling.

At current prices, this net buying represents approximately $83,000 in accumulation over a short period. Despite being a small exchange-based purchase, it is significant given PI’s seller-driven history.

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Flow-based momentum supports this shift.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has risen by over 40% from its recent lows. CMF tracks whether big money is flowing into or out of an asset. Rising CMF alongside price stabilization suggests that large buyers are absorbing supply rather than chasing price.

The combined rise in buying pressure could have helped Pi Coin recover nearly 8% from its December 16 low, pushing the price back above the $0.19 line.

CMF is also nearing a breakout from a descending trendline. A clean break above that line, followed by a move above the zero level, would strengthen the case that this bounce has real backing. So far, the signals say buying is real, but still measured.

Why Pi Coin Price Likely Stays Range-Bound

Despite improving flows, smart money behavior remains cautious. The Smart Money Index continues to trend lower and has not confirmed the recent price rebound. That indicates that informed, longer-term buyers are not yet aggressively stepping in.

When buying pressure rises without smart money confirmation, the price often stabilizes instead of trending immediately.

That matches Pi Coin’s current structure.

The key support zone sits near $0.19, which has held multiple tests. A clean break below it would reopen downside risk toward $0.15.

On the upside, $0.21 acts as the first barrier. Without a strong push above that level, rallies are likely to stall.

This creates a roughly 10% range, with about 5% upside and 5% downside from current prices.

In short, Pi Coin is being supported by steady buying and improving money flow, but the lack of smart money participation suggests consolidation rather than continuation. Until that changes, Pi Coin is more likely to trade sideways than trend hard in either direction.

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Harga Pi Coin mulai menunjukkan tanda-tanda support awal setelah penurunan tajam di pertengahan Desember. Sejak titik terendah pada 16 Desember, Pi Coin sudah naik lebih dari 8%, didukung oleh pembelian secara konsisten di exchange.

Tapi meski tekanan beli mulai meningkat, tidak semua kelompok modal yakin sepenuhnya. Akibatnya, pasar kini berada di tengah-tengah antara support dan keraguan, sehingga kemungkinan besar pergerakan harga akan sideways, bukan breakout yang bersih. Saat ini, Pi Coin ada di titik persimpangan, arus masuk semakin membaik, namun keyakinannya masih belum merata.

Tekanan Beli Meningkat dan Arus Modal Jadi Mendukung

Data wallet exchange menunjukkan arus beli bersih yang jelas selama 24 jam terakhir.

Di beberapa exchange terpusat utama, Pi Coin mencatat net outflow sekitar 414.420 PI, artinya lebih banyak token keluar dari exchange dibanding token yang masuk. Biasanya ini menandakan terjadi pembelian, bukan penjualan.

Pada harga saat ini, pembelian bersih ini setara dengan akumulasi sekitar US$83.000 dalam waktu singkat. Walaupun jumlah pembelian di exchange ini termasuk kecil, tetap penting mengingat riwayat Pi Coin yang cenderung banyak penjual.

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Momentum berbasis arus juga mendukung perubahan ini.

Indikator Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) telah naik lebih dari 40% dari titik terendahnya. CMF digunakan untuk melacak apakah uang besar sedang masuk atau keluar ke suatu aset. Kenaikan CMF bersamaan dengan harga yang mulai stabil menandakan pembeli besar kini menyerap suplai, bukan mengejar harga.

Kombinasi tekanan beli yang meningkat ini kemungkinan telah membantu Pi Coin pulih nyaris 8% dari posisi terendah 16 Desember, sehingga harganya kembali naik di atas level US$0,19.

CMF juga hampir breakout dari garis tren menurun. Jika berhasil breakout di atas garis tersebut lalu terus bergerak di atas level nol, maka penopang reli ini bisa semakin kuat. Sampai sekarang, sinyal yang muncul menunjukkan ada pembelian nyata, meski tetap terukur.

Mengapa Harga Pi Coin Nampaknya Tetap Bergerak di Rentang yang Sama

Meski arus mulai membaik, pergerakan smart money masih hati-hati. Smart Money Index masih turun dan belum mengonfirmasi rebound harga baru-baru ini. Ini artinya, pembeli yang sudah berpengalaman dan berpikir jangka panjang sejauh ini belum agresif masuk.

Ketika tekanan beli naik tanpa konfirmasi dari smart money, harga biasanya cenderung stabil dulu, belum langsung bergerak naik.

Hal ini memang sesuai dengan struktur Pi Coin saat ini.

Zona support utama berada di sekitar US$0,19 yang telah teruji berkali-kali. Jika harga breakout ke bawah area ini, maka risiko penurunan ke US$0,15 kembali terbuka.

Di sisi atas, area US$0,21 menjadi resistance pertama. Jika tidak ada dorongan kuat melewati level ini, reli cenderung tertahan.

Kondisi ini membentuk range sekitar 10%, dengan potensi naik 5% dan turun 5% dari harga sekarang.

Singkatnya, Pi Coin mendapat dukungan dari pembelian stabil dan aliran dana yang membaik, tapi minimnya peran smart money menunjukkan kecenderungan konsolidasi, bukan reli berkelanjutan. Sampai situasi berubah, Pi Coin besar kemungkinan akan bergerak sideways daripada membentuk tren yang kuat ke salah satu arah.