Bitcoin sebagian besar mengabaikan sinyal ekonomi makro yang seharusnya mendukung. CPI AS turun menjadi 2,7% pada Desember, menguatkan ekspektasi pemangkasan suku bunga, tapi Bitcoin tidak merespons. Alih-alih menarik modal baru, harga Bitcoin justru stagnan sementara dana berputar ke aset lain.

Ketidaksesuaian inilah yang membuat topik bear market Bitcoin kembali mencuat.

Direktur Global Macro dari Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer, baru-baru ini mewanti-wanti bahwa Bitcoin mungkin sudah mengakhiri siklus empat tahun terbarunya pada bulan Oktober, baik secara harga maupun waktu. Data on-chain dan pasar sejak saat itu semakin mendukung pandangan ini.

Data Menunjukkan Bitcoin Mungkin Sudah Masuk Bear Market

Berbagai indikator independen sekarang mengarah pada kesimpulan yang sama: modal mulai keluar, para holder dengan keyakinan tinggi mulai melepas kepemilikan, dan Bitcoin menerima risiko tanpa ada permintaan nyata.

Arus Masuk Stablecoin Anjlok sejak Puncak Siklus

Aliran stablecoin ke exchange biasanya menjadi ‘bahan bakar cadangan’ untuk reli kripto. Tapi, bahan bakar itu kini sudah lenyap.

Total arus masuk stablecoin ERC-20 ke exchange memuncak di sekitar 10,2 miliar pada 14 Agustus. Pada 24 Desember, arus masuk tersebut turun drastis menjadi sekitar 1,06 miliar, artinya berkurang hampir 90%.

Ingin insight token seperti ini? Daftar ke Newsletter Crypto Harian dari Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Puncak arus masuk bulan Agustus itu berdekatan dengan harga tertinggi Bitcoin pada bulan Oktober di atas US$125.000, yang juga menjadi periode yang disebut Timmer sebagai puncak siklus kemungkinan besar.

While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025

Sejak saat itu, modal baru belum kembali, mempertegas pandangan bahwa distribusi kini menggantikan akumulasi setelah puncak harga tercapai.

Holder Jangka Panjang Kini Jadi Penjual Agresif

Holder dengan keyakinan tinggi mulai menunjukkan perilaku berbeda setelah Oktober.

Perubahan posisi bersih holder jangka panjang Bitcoin berubah menjadi negatif tak lama setelah puncak siklus. Aksi jual meningkat dari sekitar 16.500 BTC per hari di akhir Oktober menjadi sekitar 279.000 BTC baru-baru ini. Ini merupakan kenaikan tekanan distribusi harian lebih dari 1.500%.

Ini sangat sejalan dengan tesis Timmer bahwa fase siklus halving empat tahun kemungkinan besar telah selesai di Oktober. Holder jangka panjang juga sepertinya sepakat, mereka justru mengurangi eksposur daripada mempertahankan harga.

Dominasi Bitcoin Naik, tapi Bukan karena Alasan Bullish

Dominasi Bitcoin naik lagi mendekati 57-59%, namun ini bukan sinyal risk-on.

Setelah rilis CPI yang lebih rendah, modal tidak mengalir ke Bitcoin. Dana justru mengarah ke aset lindung nilai tradisional. Dalam setahun terakhir, harga perak reli lebih dari 120%, sementara emas naik sekitar 65%. Di saat yang sama, pasar kripto lebih luas justru tertinggal jauh.

If you invested $10,000 in each asset at the start of 2025, you’d have:

Silver → $23,000

Gold → $16,500

Copper → $13,500

Nvidia → $13,450

Nasdaq → $12,000

S&P 500 → $11,600

BTC → $9,400

ETH → $8,800

Altcoins → $5,800

— Dirk 💎 (@DirksDegen) December 24, 2025

Pergeseran arah modal ini menguatkan pandangan bahwa dominasi Bitcoin yang meningkat bukan karena minat risiko baru, melainkan karena modal keluar ke arah yang dianggap lebih aman di dalam pasar kripto.

Pandangan ini juga datang dari komentar pasar eksklusif yang dibagikan kepada BeInCrypto oleh Ray Youssef, founder sekaligus CEO NoOnes, yang menyoroti mengapa emas menjadi pemimpin trade debasement 2025 sementara Bitcoin masih sideways.

“While gold may clearly be winning the 2025 debasement trade on price performance, the comparison masks a more nuanced market reality. Gold’s recent run to new all-time highs and 67% YTD gains reflect classical defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market environment defined by fiscal excess, geopolitical strain, and macro policy uncertainty. Increased central bank accumulation, a softer dollar, and persistent inflation risks have reinforced gold’s role as the market’s preferred defensive asset,” ujar Ray Youssef.

Youssef juga menyampaikan bahwa perilaku Bitcoin tahun ini sangat berbeda dengan narasi digital-gold.

“Bitcoin, by contrast, has recently failed to deliver on the hedge narrative. The asset has not traded like digital gold in 2025, owing to its heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. BTC’s upside is now tied to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity, and risk sentiment, rather than to monetary debasement alone,” papar Youssef.

Alamat Mega-Whale Nampaknya Mulai Turun Diam-Diam

Holder besar juga mulai mundur.

Jumlah alamat Bitcoin yang memegang lebih dari 10.000 BTC turun dari 92 pada awal Desember menjadi 88. Penurunan ini terjadi bersamaan dengan harga yang menurun dan bukan karena akumulasi.

Alamat-alamat ini sering mewakili pelaku institusi besar. Berkurangnya jumlahnya menambah konfirmasi tambahan bahwa smart money tidak sedang memposisikan diri secara agresif untuk kenaikan di sini.

Bitcoin Masih di Bawah Moving Average Jangka Panjang yang Penting

Bitcoin masih diperdagangkan di bawah moving average 365 harinya di dekat US$102.000, level yang terakhir kali benar-benar ditembus pada awal pasar bearish tahun 2022.

Moving average ini menjadi support secara teknikal dan psikologis. Gagal untuk mengatasinya lagi menandakan bahwa pasar sudah berubah dari kelanjutan tren ke risiko perubahan tren. Jika harga tetap di bawah level ini, sejarah mengarah ke zona penurunan yang lebih dalam di dekat range harga realisasi trader sekitar US$72.000.

Bitcoin is below its 365-day moving average ($102K), a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.

If price fails to reclaim it, data suggest the next support lies near $72K, the Traders’ minimum realized price band. pic.twitter.com/VySVce5NY9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 5, 2025

Semua sinyal ini sejalan dengan peringatan Timmer bahwa Bitcoin mungkin memang sudah memasuki fase bear-market atau sudah mendekatinya, meskipun harganya belum sepenuhnya mencerminkan situasi tersebut. Modal sudah mulai mengering, holder dengan keyakinan tinggi pun menjual, dominasi naik dengan cara defensif, dan kondisi ekonomi makro pun diabaikan.

Namun, tidak semua support siklus jangka panjang sudah patah. Sinyal kontra dan level-level penentu apakah ini akan menjadi bear market penuh atau transisi berkepanjangan akan dibahas selanjutnya.

Mengapa Skenario Bear Market Bitcoin Belum Sepenuhnya Selesai

Walau makin banyak bukti yang mengarah ke bear market Bitcoin, ada dua indikator siklus jangka panjang yang masih belum mendukung adanya penurunan struktural yang pasti.

Salah satu alasan mengapa kasus bear market Bitcoin belum mencapai kesimpulan, karena pasar menafsirkan perlambatan CPI secara berbeda. Biasanya, inflasi yang melandai bisa menguntungkan aset berisiko, namun respons saat ini menunjukkan investor lebih memilih keamanan dan likuiditas dibanding pertumbuhan.

Ini tidak berarti sinyal CPI salah. Mungkin sinyal ini hanya datang lebih awal, karena secara historis Bitcoin memang biasanya bereaksi belakangan setelah ekspektasi likuiditas benar-benar mengalir ke arus modal.

Indikator-indikator ini, serta yang akan kita bahas sebentar lagi, tidak meniadakan sinyal bearish di atas. Tetapi hal ini memberi alasan kenapa fase ini masih bisa menjadi transisi panjang dan bukan siklus bear market penuh.

Pi Cycle Top Belum Terpicu

Salah satu indikator siklus paling andal di Bitcoin, Pi Cycle Top, sampai sekarang belum memberikan sinyal puncak. Indikator ini membandingkan moving average 111 hari dengan moving average 350 hari dikali dua.

Secara historis, ketika dua garis ini berpotongan, Bitcoin sudah berada di dekat atau di puncak siklus besar.

Sampai sekarang, kedua garis ini masih berjauhan. Artinya, Bitcoin belum berada di fase panas atau euforia, bahkan setelah puncaknya di bulan Oktober.

Hal ini bertentangan dengan pendapat Direktur Global Makro Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer, yang menyoroti bahwa puncak Oktober di kisaran US$125.000 sesuai dengan waktu siklus-siklus sebelumnya.

Pada siklus sebelumnya, bear market baru dimulai setelah ada konfirmasi jelas dari Pi Cycle. Sinyal itu sampai kini belum muncul.

SMA 2 Tahun Masih Jadi Garis yang Paling Penting

Argumen kontra kedua yang lebih penting adalah secara struktur. Bitcoin masih diperdagangkan di dekat simple moving average 2 tahun yang ada pada kisaran US$82.800.

Level ini sudah berkali-kali menjadi pembatas tren jangka panjang Bitcoin. Penutupan bulanan di atas SMA 2 tahun biasanya menandai siklus bertahan.

Penutupan di bawah level ini secara berkelanjutan menandakan adanya fase bear yang dalam.

Sampai sejauh ini, Bitcoin belum mengalami penutupan bulanan di bawah garis tersebut.

Karena itu, penutupan bulan Desember sangatlah menentukan. Jika Bitcoin bertahan di atas US$82.800 sampai akhir tahun, kemungkinan pasar masih berada di fase transisi siklus akhir, bukan bear market Bitcoin yang sudah terkonfirmasi.

🚨 Bitcoin in a critical zone on the 2Y SMA Multiplier

The 2Y SMA Multiplier is one of Bitcoin’s most respected cycle charts — and the current moment demands attention.

📍 Today, BTC is trading very close to the 2Y SMA, currently at $82,800.

📉 History matters:
Whenever… pic.twitter.com/jmIW9RSSGg

— Alphractal (@Alphractal) December 16, 2025

Skema ini masih membuka peluang bahwa tahun 2026 akan menunjukkan kenaikan tertunda, bukan penurunan berkepanjangan.

Akan tetapi, jika Desember ditutup jauh di bawah SMA 2 tahun, proyeksi penurunan menuju kisaran US$65.000–US$75.000 yang disebut Timmer menjadi lebih kuat secara struktural.

TL;DR — Level Harga Bitcoin Penting yang Perlu Kamu Pantau Sekarang

Kerangka bearish juga punya level pembatalan yang jelas. Jika Bitcoin berhasil kembali ke atas moving average 365 hari di sekitar US$102.000, ini akan sangat melemahkan skenario bear market. Hal ini sejalan dengan prediksi harga Bitcoin akhir tahun dari Tom Lee.

Level tersebut jadi penanda awal bear market 2022 saat ditembus, dan bila harga pulih ke atasnya, itu akan menandakan kekuatan tren kembali muncul.

Secara sederhana:

• Di atas US$82.800 sampai penutupan Desember: fase transisi tetap berjalan
• Di bawah US$82.800 secara bulanan: risiko bear market meningkat
• Kembali ke atas US$102.000: struktur bullish mulai terbentuk lagi

Saat ini, Bitcoin berada di antara tekanan jual dan support siklus jangka panjang. Pasar belum memperlihatkan kekuatan, tapi juga belum benar-benar mengalami breakdown.

Penutupan Desember akan menentukan narasi mana yang akan berlanjut sampai 2026.

Dogecoin price has remained under pressure. The token is down around 2% over the past 24 hours and more than 12% over the past month. Price action has weakened, but the decline is slowing.

While the chart structure still leans bearish, on-chain behavior suggests the breakdown may not be a done deal yet. The next few sessions will decide whether DOGE slips into a deeper decline or stabilizes near current levels.

Dogecoin Price Pressure Builds as Short-Term Supply Exits

Dogecoin is trading near the lower boundary of a declining price structure, with a bear flag forming. That keeps downside risk active, especially if support near $0.124-$0.120 fails. However, what stands out is how speculative supply has behaved as price drifted lower.

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The 1-week-to-1-month-hold cohort, typically the most aggressive swing-trading group, has sharply reduced exposure, per the HODL Waves metric. This metric classifies hodlers by time.

On November 29, this cohort controlled roughly 7.73% of Dogecoin’s supply. As of December 23, that share has dropped to about 2.76%. That is a steep reduction in speculative positioning over a short period.

This matters because these holders tend to amplify downside when they panic sell. Their exit often reduces forced selling pressure near support.

Long-Term Holders Quietly Add as Coin Activity Drops

At the same time speculative supply is shrinking, longer-term holders are showing early signs of accumulation. The 1-year to 2-year holder cohort has increased its share of Dogecoin supply from around 21.84% to 22.34%. The increase is small, but the signal matters.

These holders typically add only when they believe downside risk is starting to fade.

Coin activity across the network, measured via the spent coins metric, supports that view. Spent coins activity has fallen sharply. The spent coins age band metric dropped from roughly 251.97 million DOGE to about 94.34 million DOGE. That represents a decline of more than 60% in coin movement.

Lower coin activity possibly means fewer holders are rushing to move or sell tokens. Historically, similar drops in activity have preceded short-term relief rallies in Dogecoin. Earlier in December, a similar slowdown preceded a rally from near $0.132 to $0.151, a near 15% move, within three days.

This does not guarantee a rally, but it shows selling aggression is cooling rather than accelerating.

Key Dogecoin Price Levels That Decide Breakdown or Recovery

The technical picture now hinges on a narrow price range. The $0.120 level remains the most important near-term support. A decisive daily close below it would expose the Dogecoin price to deeper downside toward the $0.112 zone and potentially lower if momentum builds.

On the upside, the recovery case depends on reclaiming nearby resistance. A move back above $0.133 would signal that selling pressure is easing. A stronger reclaim of $0.138 would confirm that buyers are regaining control and that the recent decline was corrective rather than the start of a larger breakdown.

In simple terms, Dogecoin is at a crossroads. Price structure still carries risk, but on-chain data shows speculative supply leaving, long-term holders slowly stepping in, and overall coin activity drying up. If support holds, those factors can help stabilize the price. If it fails, the breakdown remains valid.

The post Dogecoin Nears Breakdown Zone; On-Chain Signals Fight Back — What’s Next For Price appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin has largely ignored what should have been supportive macro signals. US CPI cooled to 2.7% in December, strengthening rate-cut expectations, yet Bitcoin failed to respond. Instead of attracting fresh capital, the price stalled while money rotated elsewhere.

That disconnect is why the Bitcoin bear market discussion is resurfacing.

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, recently warned that Bitcoin may have already ended its latest four-year cycle in October, both in price and time. The on-chain and market data since then increasingly support that view.

Data Signals Suggest Bitcoin May Already Be in a Bear Market

Multiple independent indicators now point to the same conclusion: capital is retreating, conviction holders are selling, and Bitcoin is absorbing risk without real demand.

Stablecoin Inflows Have Collapsed Since the Cycle Peak

Stablecoin inflows often act as dry powder for crypto rallies. That fuel has vanished.

Total exchange inflows for ERC-20 stablecoins peaked at around 10.2 billion on August 14. By December 24, inflows had fallen to roughly 1.06 billion, a drop of nearly 90%.

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That August inflow peak closely preceded Bitcoin’s October high above $125,000, the same period Timmer identified as the likely cycle top.

While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025

Since then, fresh capital has failed to return, reinforcing the idea that distribution replaced accumulation after the peak.

Long-Term Holders Have Turned Aggressive Sellers

Conviction holders are behaving differently after October.

Bitcoin long-term holder net position change flipped negative shortly after the cycle high. Selling accelerated from roughly 16,500 BTC per day in late October to around 279,000 BTC recently. That is an increase of more than 1,500% in daily distribution pressure.

This aligns directly with Timmer’s thesis that the four-year halving cycle phase likely ended in October. Long-term holders appear to agree, reducing exposure rather than defending price.

Bitcoin Dominance Is Rising, But Not for Bullish Reasons

Bitcoin dominance has climbed back toward 57–59%, but this is not a risk-on signal.

After the softer CPI print, capital did not rotate into Bitcoin. Instead, it flowed into traditional hedges. Over the past year, silver has rallied by over 120%, while gold is up roughly 65%. At the same time, broader crypto markets have lagged badly.

If you invested $10,000 in each asset at the start of 2025, you’d have:

Silver → $23,000

Gold → $16,500

Copper → $13,500

Nvidia → $13,450

Nasdaq → $12,000

S&P 500 → $11,600

BTC → $9,400

ETH → $8,800

Altcoins → $5,800

— Dirk 💎 (@DirksDegen) December 24, 2025

This shift reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s rising dominance is not being driven by fresh risk appetite, but by capital retreating into relative safety within crypto.

That view is echoed by an exclusive market comment shared with BeInCrypto by Ray Youssef, founder and CEO of NoOnes, who highlighted why gold has led the 2025 debasement trade while Bitcoin remains range-bound.

“While gold may clearly be winning the 2025 debasement trade on price performance, the comparison masks a more nuanced market reality. Gold’s recent run to new all-time highs and 67% YTD gains reflect classical defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market environment defined by fiscal excess, geopolitical strain, and macro policy uncertainty. Increased central bank accumulation, a softer dollar, and persistent inflation risks have reinforced gold’s role as the market’s preferred defensive asset,” he said.

Youssef added that Bitcoin’s behavior this year has diverged sharply from the digital-gold narrative.

“Bitcoin, by contrast, has recently failed to deliver on the hedge narrative. The asset has not traded like digital gold in 2025, owing to its heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. BTC’s upside is now tied to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity, and risk sentiment, rather than to monetary debasement alone,” he highlighted.

Mega-Whale Addresses Are Quietly Declining

Large holders are also stepping back.

The number of Bitcoin addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC has fallen from 92 in early December to 88. That decline came alongside falling prices, not accumulation.

These addresses often represent institutional-scale players. Their reduction adds another layer of confirmation that smart money is not positioning aggressively for upside here.

Bitcoin Remains Below a Critical Long-Term Moving Average

Bitcoin is still trading below its 365-day moving average near $102,000, a level last decisively lost at the start of the 2022 bear market.

This moving average acts as both technical and psychological support. Failure to reclaim it suggests the market has shifted from trend continuation to regime risk. If price remains below this level, historical precedent points toward deeper downside zones near the traders’ realized price band around $72,000.

Bitcoin is below its 365-day moving average ($102K), a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.

If price fails to reclaim it, data suggest the next support lies near $72K, the Traders’ minimum realized price band. pic.twitter.com/VySVce5NY9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 5, 2025

Taken together, these signals support Timmer’s warning that Bitcoin may already be in a bear-market phase or closing in on that, even if the price has not fully reflected it yet. Capital has dried up, conviction holders are selling, dominance is rising defensively, and macro relief is being ignored.

That said, not all long-term cycle supports have broken yet. Those counter-signals, and the exact levels that decide whether this becomes a full bear market or a prolonged transition, come next.

Why the Bitcoin Bear Market Case Is Not Fully Settled Yet

Despite the growing evidence pointing toward a Bitcoin bear market, two long-term cycle indicators still argue against a confirmed structural breakdown.

Also, one reason the Bitcoin bear market case remains unresolved is how markets are interpreting the CPI slowdown. While cooling inflation typically benefits risk assets, the current response suggests investors are prioritizing safety and liquidity over growth.

That does not mean the CPI signal is wrong. It may simply be early, with Bitcoin historically reacting later than traditional hedges once liquidity expectations fully translate into capital flows.

These and the indicators we would discuss next do not negate the bearish signals discussed above. But they explain why this phase may still resolve as a prolonged transition rather than a full bear cycle.

Pi Cycle Top Has Not Triggered

One of Bitcoin’s most reliable cycle indicators, the Pi Cycle Top, has not flashed a peak signal. The indicator compares the 111-day moving average with the 350-day moving average multiplied by two.

Historically, when these two lines cross, Bitcoin has been near or at major cycle tops.

As of now, the two lines remain widely separated. That suggests Bitcoin is not in an overheated or euphoric phase, even after the October high.

This contradicts the idea raised by Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, who noted that the October peak near $125,000 fit prior cycle timing.

In past cycles, true bear markets began after clear Pi Cycle confirmations. That signal is still absent.

The 2-Year SMA Remains the Line That Matters Most

The second and more immediate counter-argument is structural. Bitcoin is still trading near its 2-year simple moving average, which sits around $82,800.

This level has repeatedly acted as Bitcoin’s long-term trend divider. Monthly closes above the 2-year SMA have historically marked cycle survival.

Sustained closes below it have marked deep bear phases.

So far, Bitcoin has not confirmed a monthly close beneath this line.

That makes December’s monthly close critical. If Bitcoin holds above $82,800 into year-end, the market likely remains in a late-cycle transition rather than a confirmed Bitcoin bear market.

🚨 Bitcoin in a critical zone on the 2Y SMA Multiplier

The 2Y SMA Multiplier is one of Bitcoin’s most respected cycle charts — and the current moment demands attention.

📍 Today, BTC is trading very close to the 2Y SMA, currently at $82,800.

📉 History matters:
Whenever… pic.twitter.com/jmIW9RSSGg

— Alphractal (@Alphractal) December 16, 2025

That outcome keeps open the possibility that 2026 reflects delayed upside rather than prolonged downside.

However, if December closes decisively below the 2-year SMA, downside projections toward the $65,000–$75,000 range, referenced by Timmer, gain structural backing.

TL;DR —Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch Now

The bearish framework also has clear invalidation levels. A reclaim of the 365-day moving average near $102,000 would materially weaken the bear market thesis. That would align with Tom Lee’s year-end Bitcoin price prediction.

That level marked the start of the 2022 bear market when it broke, and would signal renewed trend strength if recovered.

In simple terms:

• Above $82,800 into December close: transition phase remains intact
• Below $82,800 on a monthly basis: bear market risk escalates
• Back above $102,000: bullish structure begins rebuilding

For now, Bitcoin sits between conviction selling and long-term cycle support. The market is not confirming strength, but it is not fully breaking either.

The December close will decide which narrative carries into 2026.

The post Is Bitcoin Already in a Bear Market? Fidelity Chief Raises Concerns appeared first on BeInCrypto.