Tether is in advanced talks to invest around €1 billion in German humanoid-robotics firm Neura Robotics, according to recent reports.
The move signals one of the clearest shifts yet in Tether’s strategy as the world’s largest stablecoin issuer pushes beyond USDT and into high-technology sectors.
Tethers Is Betting Big On AI Robotics
The proposed investment would value Neura between €8 billion and €10 billion.
However, the scale of the talks underscores a broader pattern. Tether has spent the past year diversifying into AI infrastructure, robotics, and real-world technology.
Tether @Tether_to in talks to lead €1 Billion Funding Round for Neura Robotics
Tether Holdings, the issuer of the world's largest stablecoin $USDT, is reportedly in advanced discussions to lead a €1 billion ($1.07 billion) investment round in Neura Robotics, a German startup…
Earlier this year, the company secured access to a 20,000-GPU compute network to build its AI research environment. It also explored major exposure to Neura’s cognitive-robotics platform, which includes humanoid systems designed for industrial and commercial work.
At the same time, Tether has expanded through financial-market partnerships. Its “Hadron by Tether” platform signed agreements with KraneShares and Bitfinex Securities to accelerate tokenized securities adoption.
The company also deepened its presence in public-sector digital infrastructure through a collaboration with Da Nang city in Vietnam.
That financial capacity appears to be funding its push into AI, robotics, and digital-governance technology.
Yet questions remain. Neither Tether nor Neura has confirmed the final size or structure of the investment.
Analysts note that mass-producing humanoid robots carries technical and supply-chain risk, and the projected valuation depends on Neura scaling production quickly.
Still, Tether’s direction is clear. The firm is moving from a stablecoin-only business to a broader technology investor, tying its future to sectors far beyond digital assets.
A US court sentenced a man to five years in prison for his leading role in a $9.4 million cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme.
He was also ordered to pay over $1 million in forfeiture and over $170,000 in restitution.
Wolf Capital CEO Found Guilty
Travis Ford, a 36-year-old resident of Glenpool, Oklahoma, was the CEO of Wolf Capital Trading LLC, a cryptocurrency investment firm that raised nearly $10 million from around 2,8000 investors.
According to the US Department of Justice, Ford spent 2023 soliciting investments through his website and various online promotions. He portrayed himself as an experienced trader capable of generating daily returns ranging from 1% to 2% for investors.
The U.S. Department of Justice has sentenced Wolf Capital Crypto Trading CEO Travis Ford to five years in prison for a $9.4 million crypto Ponzi scheme, ordering over $1 million in forfeiture and $170,000 in restitution after he admitted to defrauding about 2,800 investors.…
During Ford’s court process, prosecutors argued that he ultimately diverted and misappropriated those funds for personal use and to support his co-conspirators.
In January, Ford admitted guilt to a single charge of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. As part of his plea, he acknowledged knowing that the investment returns he advertised could not be consistently delivered.
In recent months, several major crypto Ponzi schemes have reappeared in headlines worldwide.
A similar case came last month, when Thai authorities arrested Chinese national Liang Ai-Bing in Bangkok. He is accused of helping run the FINTOCH scheme, which allegedly stole more than $31 million from nearly 100 investors across Asia. Officials say the operation spanned multiple countries and relied on aggressive online marketing.
In August, a New York court issued another major ruling. Judges ordered EminiFX founder Eddy Alexandre to repay $228 million after regulators determined his AI-themed platform was a large-scale fraud. The scheme heavily targeted immigrant communities in the United States.
A third case surfaced weeks earlier in Detroit, when city officials sued Florida-based RealT for selling tokenized shares of homes it never owned. The company raised roughly $2.72 million from investors through these offerings.
While Ford’s conviction highlights a tougher stance from authorities, the wave of recent cases makes clear that crypto fraud is spreading faster than enforcement can keep up.
While Bitcoin has painted a bearish picture this past week following its 8% decline and slip below $100,000, it seems like most altcoins will rely on external developments. This could prove to be both beneficial and detrimental to the tokens.
BeInCrypto has analysed three such altcoins to watch this weekend that could witness a surge or a fall.
Arbitrum (ARB)
ARB trades at $0.241 after a 21% drop in the past 24 hours, reflecting mounting pressure ahead of this weekend’s token unlock. Market sentiment remains fragile as uncertainty builds, raising concerns that additional supply could amplify volatility and limit any near-term recovery for the altcoin.
The scheduled release of 92.65 million ARB, worth more than $22.35 million, may add downward pressure in an already unstable market. If selling accelerates, ARB could slip toward the $0.200 psychological support level, creating conditions for deeper losses if sentiment weakens further.
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If ARB stabilizes at $0.242 and avoids a sharp decline, the altcoin could stage a recovery toward $0.295. A successful move above this level would signal renewed buyer confidence and fully invalidate the bearish outlook, offering a potential reversal for short-term traders.
Undead Games (UDS)
UDS remains one of the few tokens still trading close to its all-time high, showing resilience despite broader market weakness. The altcoin sits only 23% below its peak of $2.90, signaling stronger demand and tighter supply conditions compared with many assets experiencing deeper corrections.
The tightening of the Bollinger Bands suggests UDS is preparing for a sharp volatility spike. Weekends often amplify market swings, and a bullish move could push the token above $2.59. Sustained momentum may allow UDS to retest the $2.90 all-time high and attract increased trader interest.
If bearish momentum takes hold, UDS may fall below the $2.29 and $2.14 support levels. A breakdown would invalidate the bullish setup and expose the token to steeper losses. This scenario highlights how quickly sentiment can shift when volatility compresses before major price moves.
Berachain (BERA)
Another one of the altcoins to watch this weekend is BERA, which trades at $1.42 after a 15.6% weekly drop, reflecting mounting uncertainty in the market. The Ichimoku Cloud signals bullish momentum, yet its position above the candlesticks contradicts the trend.
Berchain’s launch of the claims page could help stabilize BERA’s price. The tool allows users affected by the Balancer v2 and BEX exploit to recover lost deposits, potentially supporting sentiment. This development may keep BERA above $1.41 or spark a rebound toward $1.57 if demand strengthens.
If bullish momentum weakens and the claims page fails to lift confidence, BERA could break below $1.41. A drop through this support may push the altcoin toward $1.31. This would invalidate the bullish thesis and signal deeper downside risk amid ongoing market volatility.
For the first time in the company’s history, Strategy’s market value has fallen below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings.
This reversal means that the total value of the Bitcoin it owns is now less than the total debt the company took on to acquire it. Analysts worry that if bearish conditions continue, Strategy could enter into a death spiral.
Debt Load Turns Into Liability
Bitcoin’s sharp decline today is being closely tied to mounting pressure on Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate holder of the asset.
Market sentiment shifted abruptly after Bitcoin broke below the $100,000 threshold, trading near $95,562 at the time of writing. The downturn intensified concerns about Strategy’s leveraged position, adding pressure to an already fragile market environment.
This is why BTC is nuking:
For the FIRST TIME EVER @MicroStrategy has gone below 1 NAV.
Meaning that Saylor's BTC holdings are worth less than their total debt.
The shakeup also renewed questions about the long-term viability of its allocation model, which relies heavily on aggressive leverage. Chairman Michael Saylor uses billions in borrowed capital to expand the company’s Bitcoin holdings, magnifying both gains and risks.
When Bitcoin rises, that leverage amplifies gains. But when it falls, the company’s debt load becomes a point of vulnerability.
This playbook has raised fresh concerns among traders that Strategy could slip into what some call a “death spiral.” Falling BTC prices are steadily eroding the value of the company’s collateral.
In that scenario, the company could be forced to sell part of its holdings to meet its obligations. Even if such a scenario never materializes, the possibility alone is enough for market participants to reposition.
Saylor Addresses Selling Speculation
Beyond Strategy’s structural leverage risk, market participants also worry about the impact the market would suffer if Saylor were to unload some of his holdings.
Strategy currently owns 641,692 BTC, or roughly 3% of the total circulating supply. If the company were forced to liquidate a substantial portion of that stash, the resulting increase in supply could significantly impact the market.
The growing concern pushed Saylor to address speculation about a possible Bitcoin sell-off. In an interview with CNBC, the Strategy founder reiterated his long-term conviction in Bitcoin and dismissed the rumors of a sell-off.
“My view is [that] Bitcoin is going to outperform gold, it’s going to outperform the S&P, it is digital capital, and so if you’re a long-term investor, this is the place to be,” Saylor said.
Despite his confidence, today’s developments inevitably raise concerns about structural vulnerabilities in Strategy’s accumulation strategy.
Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee because of how whales are splitting. Institutions are quietly loading up, and Tom Lee’s BitMine is moving faster than anyone as a major on-chain pattern breaks. With Ethereum (ETH) stuck in the $3,100 range, and volatility spiking across the market, a new battle line is forming between panic sellers and high-conviction buyers.
Crypto News of the Day: BitMine Buys 9,176 ETH From Galaxy Digital OTC
Ethereum’s biggest players are suddenly split, and Tom Lee’s BitMine is moving faster than anyone. As ETH hovers near $3,100 with mixed technical signals, whales are either panic-selling at breakeven or doubling down with record-size buys. BitMine has firmly chosen its side.
Despite a sharp market downturn, BitMine continues to accumulate at scale. On-chain data from Lookonchain shows a new BitMine-linked wallet, 0x9973, receiving 9,176 ETH, valued at $29.14 million, directly from a Galaxy Digital OTC wallet.
“Despite the market downturn, Tom Lee’s Bitmine is still buying $ETH,” Lookonchain reported, highlighting Lee’s aggressive strategy.
This follows earlier activity confirming a total accumulation of 19,500 ETH in BitMine, positioning the firm among the most active institutional buyers in November.
Whales Break Pattern: Some Sell at Breakeven, Others Buy Billions
A closer look at additional on-chain transactions suggests that broader whale activity is fragmented. A long-term holder, wallet 0x0c19, has just sold 2,404 ETH tokens, valued at $7.7 million, which they had held since August 2021. At today’s prices, the whale appears to be exiting at breakeven, signaling fading confidence after years of inactivity.
Meanwhile, a super-whale known as #66kETHBorrow is doing the opposite. They added another 16,937 ETH ($53.9 million), bringing their total to 422,175 ETH ($1.34 billion) in just a few days. Despite sitting on approximately $126 million in unrealized losses, this whale continues to accumulate with conviction.
Machi Brothers Add Leverage Even While Deep in the Red
Traders Machi Big Brother and Machi Small Brother have also doubled down. Both increased their long positions on Hyperliquid:
Machi Big Brother: 7,400.7 ETH ($23.55 million), liquidation at $3,040
Machi Small Brother: 5,000 ETH ($15.9 million), liquidation at $2,794
Lookonchain notes that both traders added margin as ETH fell to avoid liquidations, signaling confidence in a rebound despite being heavily underwater.
Tornado Cash Wallet Sparks Richard Heart Speculation
Elsewhere, a Tornado Cash-linked wallet, 0xa13C, sold 4,978 ETH ($16.29 million) at $3,273. On-chain data shows this same entity previously deposited 162,937 ETH, funds associated by analysts with Richard Heart, founder of HEX and PulseChain.
Another wallet, 0xa13C, received 4,978 $ETH ($16.29M) from https://t.co/11PfRBP2j2 and sold it at $3,273 eight hours ago.
Previously, Richard Heart(@RichardHeartWin, founder of HEX, PulseChain, and PulseX) deposited all 162,937 $ETH($619M) he bought at $3,800 last year into… https://t.co/nbrxNGoQX4
No confirmation has surfaced, but the sale adds to the narrative of whale divergence.
“Crazy accumulation happening behind the scenes,” DeFi researcher 0xNobler said.
The next major catalyst for Ethereum arrives in December, the Fusaka upgrade. Crypto Rover noted that the smaller Pectra upgrade pushed ETH up 50%, adding weight to expectations for renewed volatility.
The massive $ETH Fusaka upgrade is coming this December.
With whales deeply divided and institutions silently accumulating, Ethereum’s next move may hinge on whether BitMine and other large buyers can flip sentiment before December’s upgrade window.
When an altcoin experiences a strong pump and breaks out of a long-term accumulation zone, the move can signal renewed attention toward that project. This pattern can be even more meaningful for low-cap altcoins because they often offer higher profit potential.
Several altcoins showed this behavior in November. Details follow below.
BeInCrypto’s price data shows that FIRO’s market cap has increased from $10 million to over $48 million since October. The asset also broke out of its 2025 accumulation range.
FIRO also remained in the top Trending section on Coingecko throughout the week. This trend reflects strong research interest from investors.
CoinGecko Top Trending Coins. Source: CoinGecko.
“FIRO has been trending #1 on Coingecko for an entire week. When the tech is truly great, the interest speaks for itself. Billions.” – Investor Zerebus commented.
Alongside the rally, FIRO’s exchange balance dropped by more than 21%, down to just over 256,000 tokens, according to Nansen. This decline indicates that demand for accumulation remains strong, despite the fear that dominated November.
2. Alchemix (ALCX)
Alchemix (ALCX) is a DeFi protocol that enables users to borrow synthetic assets, such as alUSD or alETH, based on the future yield generated by their collateral.
Price data shows that ALCX surged 140% in November. This move officially ended the sideways phase that lasted from February until now.
This altcoin has a low circulating supply of just over 3 million ALCX. Ethplorer data shows that the first two weeks of November recorded the highest on-chain ALCX transaction volume in three years. More than 20,000 ALCX were transferred in the first week and over 10,000 in the second.
This activity reflects strong accumulation. Nansen data also shows that ALCX’s exchange balances dropped more than 35% in the past 30 days.
These signals have strengthened investor expectations for continued growth. The optimism is reinforced by ALCX’s relatively small market cap of roughly 37.5 million USD.
“ALCX has more than 100X potential based on a huge price breakout that took place early on this cycle and these prices may only be gearing up for such growth…” Investor JAVON MARKS predicted.
3. Nano (XNO)
Nano (XNO) is a cryptocurrency designed for real-world payments. It offers fast, feeless, and sustainable transactions thanks to its block-lattice architecture and energy-efficient consensus mechanism.
Price data shows that XNO climbed more than 70% over the past month. The asset now trades around $1 with a market cap of $143 million. This rally pushed XNO out of the accumulation zone that began in March.
Nano originated during the 2017 altcoin season and has survived multiple market cycles. The recent surge in trading volume has renewed investor hopes that XNO may target $5 or even $8.
Additionally, more than 86.5 million XNO—approximately 67% of the circulating supply—has been staked by Representatives who validate network transactions. This level of staking demonstrates investor commitment to supporting the network and reinforces the upward trend.
XRP is trading sideways after a volatile stretch that mirrored its Q3 movement. The altcoin has held within a narrow range despite increased market activity.
Historical patterns now suggest a potential shift, as XRP once again displays signs commonly seen before stronger Q4 performances.
XRP Is Mirroring Its Past In Many Ways
Q4 has historically been one of the strongest periods for XRP. Over the past 12 years, the token’s average Q4 return stands at 134%. While such gains are unlikely to repeat in the coming weeks, the trend highlights the asset’s long-term seasonal strength and signals conditions that often precede bullish reversals.
This historical resilience positions XRP as one of the few major cryptocurrencies that consistently benefits from year-end momentum.
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Unrealized losses are rising again, creating conditions that have previously triggered strong rebounds. Investors often push prices higher when losses spike, driven by the incentive to recover value. The same behavior was observed in November 2024, April 2025, and June 2025, each followed by a clear move upward.
If this pattern repeats, XRP may be positioned for a recovery fueled by renewed buying pressure. The recent uptick in unrealized losses suggests growing tension in the market, which historically precedes breakouts as investors attempt to regain profitability.
The MVRV Long/Short Difference is dipping toward the neutral zone. This indicates long-term holders are seeing reduced profits, often a precursor to a shift in short-term holder behavior. A drop below neutral would signal rising short-term gains, which may lead to brief selling as traders lock in profits.
After this phase, the indicator typically climbs back into positive territory. When long-term holder profits rise again, XRP has often followed with upward price action. This dynamic suggests a possible setup for stronger gains if the market aligns with previous cycles.
XRP trades at $2.29 after moving sideways for several weeks following a 22% drop in October. The consolidation reflects market caution but also shows resilience as buyers continue to defend key levels through short-term uncertainty.
The current indicators suggest a bullish outlook that supports a move above $2.50, a crucial psychological zone. Clearing this level may allow XRP to break past $2.64 and potentially reach $3.02, helping the token recover October’s losses.
However, XRP has been in sideways movement for 34 days, similar to late July after another 22% crash. If history repeats, XRP may continue ranging between $2.20 and $2.50, delaying any major breakout until stronger momentum emerges.
Dogecoin is down about 1% over the past week and dropped another 7.3% in the last 24 hours, making it one of the weakest large-cap coins during the latest market dip. The ETF noise did not help either. The countdown for the Bitwise spot Dogecoin ETF began on November 7, but DOGE has barely moved since then.
Whales have been buying too, yet the price keeps sliding. The charts show that one group can stop Dogecoin from breaking down, and they have not returned yet.
Whales Buy and ETF Buzz Builds — But Price Still Drops
Buying from whale wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE has continued since November 7. On that day, their holdings were 30.75 billion DOGE. Now they hold 34.11 billion DOGE. They added around 3.36 billion DOGE in one week. At today’s price, that represents more than $550 million in accumulated value.
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Even with this level of buying, DOGE is still down 1% over the same period. The ETF countdown also had no effect. Price stayed flat while institutional interest increased.
Looks like Bitwise is doing the 8(a) move for their spot Dogecoin ETF, which basically means they plan on going effective in 20 days barring an intervention. pic.twitter.com/y8jyxbYKXQ
When whales buy and the price does not respond, it usually means another force is stronger. That force is long-term holders.
This Hodler Group Has a History of Triggering Rallies and Bounces
The Hodler Net Position Change shows long-term wallets have been selling aggressively. This metric tracks whether long-term holders are adding (inflows) or removing (outflows) coins.
On November 9, long-term holders removed 62.3 million DOGE. As of November 13, that number has jumped to 148.3 million DOGE, leaving long-term wallets. That is a 138% increase in selling pressure in less than a week.
This same group triggered earlier price reactions:
• Between September 6–7, the metric flipped from outflows to inflows, and DOGE jumped about 33% shortly after.
• Between October 15–16, the same shift produced a smaller bounce of around 5% after a few days.
These moves show a clear pattern: price strength usually returns when long-term holders stop selling and begin adding again. Right now, the signal remains deep in outflows. Until it flips again, DOGE cannot build a real recovery.
Dogecoin Price Nears Breakdown Zone — One Level Holds the Entire Structure
DOGE now trades near $0.163 and sits near its largest cost-basis support cluster. The cost-basis heatmap shows the strongest concentration of holders between $0.164 and $0.165. As long as this zone holds, DOGE can stay stable and attempt a bounce or two.
Cost Basis Heatmap To Identify Supply Zones: Glassnode
If DOGE closes a daily candle below $0.164 (which is currently possible), it will slip under this cluster. With almost no heavy support levels beneath it, the price can drop quickly. The next key level is $0.158, only 2.6% lower. A breakdown there exposes $0.151 and deeper losses if the market stays weak.
On the upside, the DOGE price needs a move above $0.178 to show early strength. A stronger short-term reversal needs a clean break above $0.186. But neither move can hold unless long-term holders return and shift back to inflows.
Blockchain infrastructure has matured significantly over the past years, and its effects are now extending far beyond decentralized finance (DeFi).
According to Brian Rudick, Chief Strategy Officer at Upexi, the next wave of corporate finance will unfold on-chain as companies increasingly adopt the technology.
Corporate Finance Is Moving On-Chain
In an exclusive interview with BeInCrypto, Rudick highlighted the rapid rise of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) as one of the clearest indicators that corporate finance is shifting into blockchain-based environments.
He pointed to one headline number: around $36 billion worth of RWAs are now tokenized on blockchains — a figure that has surged 160% in the past year alone. These include private credit, US Treasuries, commodities, alternative investment funds, and equities.
“We’re also seeing large finance and tech incumbents experimenting with blockchain technology more and more,” he said
Notably, this experimentation is quickly turning into a real deployment in 2025. As BeInCrypto recently reported, several major institutions have moved to active blockchain-based development.
SWIFT, for example, is building a shared real-time ledger connecting more than 30 global banks. Google Cloud has introduced the Universal Ledger (GCUL), a neutral Layer-1 blockchain designed specifically for banks and capital markets.
Meanwhile, companies like Citigroup, Mastercard, and Visa are already offering, or preparing to offer, blockchain-powered products to their customers.
“We expect this to accelerate if and when the US passes digital asset market structure legislation,” Rudick added.
Blockchain’s Real Impact Lies in Replacing Old Rails
When it comes to “on-chain corporate finance,” it could mean things like: a company putting its balance sheet on a blockchain, doing mergers and acquisitions using tokens, or raising money with tokenized assets.
But in Rudick’s opinion, this is not where blockchain will have the biggest impact right now. He believes the biggest opportunity is not forcing every corporate finance task, such as financial planning and analysis, onto blockchains.
Instead, it lies in replacing the outdated infrastructure that underpins modern finance. He said that,
“The opportunity for blockchain technology to revolutionize traditional finance is much more around reimagining our currently antiquated financial rails – items like ACH or the credit card issuer networks that were created 50+ years ago and are slow and expensive.”
Rudick argued that although on-chain fundraising can provide advantages such as broader investor access, the full digitization of corporate finance will still lag due to two key factors:
“1) the perhaps larger and more immediate benefits of new financial rails like near-instant and free payments with stablecoins, compared to the current corporate finance construct that works comparatively well, and 2) less burdensome and already-defined regulations within certain areas items like stablecoin payments compared to less defined rules for onchain capital raising.”
Despite this, Rudick noted that tokenized assets already mirror the behavior CFOs care about: cash flow, liquidity, and yield.
“There are some nuances, where, for example, it may take time for onchain liquidity to build, but where liquidity can also be offered outside of traditional market hours. As finance moves more fully onchain, the benefits will outweigh the early challenges,” he disclosed to BeInCrypto.
Why Solana Emerges as a Leading Ecosystem for On-Chain Finance
When asked which ecosystems are best positioned to support this emerging on-chain financial layer, the executive pointed decisively to Solana. Rudick, who oversees Upexi’s cryptocurrency strategy — one of the leading Solana-focused treasury companies — cited several factors behind his assessment.
“Solana is the natural home for onchain finance, given its leading speed, cost, reliability, and as it is purpose built exactly for this. In fact, Solana’s North Star is what it calls Internet Capital Markets, where all the world’s assets trade on the same liquidity venue, accessible 24/7 to anyone with an internet connection,” he commented.
Rudick emphasized that major financial institutions, including FiServ, Western Union, Société Générale, PayPal, Visa, Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, Apollo, and many others, are increasingly using Solana to bring finance on-chain and capture its benefits.
KuCoin, a leading global cryptocurrency exchange, hosted a vibrant community meetup on November 9th, gathering over 150 influential figures from the CIS crypto ecosystem, including top traders, influencers, market makers, institutional players, and media partners. BeInCrypto was a media partner for the event. This significant event marks a crucial milestone in KuCoin’s strategic expansion into the CIS market.
The agenda featured in-depth panel discussions on the future of digital assets in the CIS, dedicated networking sessions that fostered strategic connections, and interactive activities over tea. Participants also received exclusive KuCoin merchandise as a token of appreciation.
“This event is about more than market trends; it is about celebrating the creativity, resilience, and passion that define the CIS Web3 community”, said Poppy Chen, Head of KuCoin CIS Region. “KuCoin is committed to building with the community, not just for it, by providing stronger local support, deeper partnerships, and meaningful opportunities for growth”.
The strategic importance of the CIS market for KuCoin was further highlighted by Jack Wan, Leader of Futures. “Our CIS Community Meetup is a pivotal step in localizing our global presence and enhancing brand awareness and credibility on the ground,” he noted. “With our Futures products ranking among the top three globally in trading volume, we are profoundly grateful for the continued trust and support from our CIS users.”
KuCoin plans to organize additional regional events in CIS, including key markets such as Kazakhstan and Georgia. These initiatives aim to cultivate a consistent brand presence, ensuring that KuCoin emerges as a top-tier, compliant, and community-driven exchange in the CIS market.
About KuCoin
Founded in 2017, KuCoin is a leading global crypto platform built on trust, serving over 40 million users across 200+ countries and regions. With established recognition for its reliability, the platform leverages cutting-edge blockchain technology, robust liquidity solutions, and advanced user account protections to deliver a secure trading environment.
KuCoin offers access to 1,000+ digital assets and solutions, including Web3 wallet, Spot and Futures trading, institutional services, and payments. Recognized by Forbes as one of the “Best Crypto Apps & Exchanges” and a “Top 50 Global Unicorn” by Hurun, KuCoin holds SOC 2 Type II and ISO 27001:2022 certifications and is committed to security, compliance, and innovation under the leadership of CEO BC Wong.
Bitcoin is facing renewed volatility as a head-and-shoulders pattern gains strength after last week’s brief fakeout.
The formation has developed over two months and now aligns with a sharp decline that pushed BTC below $100,000.
Bitcoin May Repeat History
The Chaikin Money Flow shows a significant rise in outflows from Bitcoin. The indicator has dropped to a 16-month low, a level last seen in July 2024. This decline highlights growing caution among investors who are reducing exposure as they question Bitcoin’s ability to mount a quick recovery.
Rising outflows signal waning confidence and may leave Bitcoin vulnerable to further price weakness. As skepticism builds, liquidity continues to soften, increasing the possibility of an extended downturn. If this trend continues, BTC may struggle to hold key support levels in the short term.
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Bitcoin’s macro momentum is weakening as its exponential moving averages move closer to a potential Death Cross. Historically, similar setups have led to average declines of about 21% before the market stabilizes and begins to recover. This raises the probability of a sharper pullback if BTC fails to regain momentum.
A comparable decline today would bring Bitcoin toward $89,400. While past events do not guarantee outcomes, the current structure resembles previous periods when bearish momentum intensified.
Bitcoin trades at $96,851, sitting just below the critical $100,000 psychological level. This support has been broken four times this month, reflecting indecision and growing pressure from sellers. Market sentiment remains fragile as BTC attempts to stabilize under increased volatility.
The emerging head and shoulders pattern points to a potential 13.6% decline that aligns with the projected target of $89,407. If Bitcoin fails to hold $95,000, the move toward this level becomes more probable. The overlap with the potential Death Cross adds weight to the bearish scenario.
However, if investor demand strengthens, Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 as support. A decisive bounce from that level may open the path toward $105,000. Such a move would invalidate the bearish thesis and restore confidence among traders seeking renewed upside momentum.
Recently, crypto token listings on major exchanges have failed to generate sustained price rallies, signaling a significant shift in market behavior.
This comes as the entire crypto market remains under pressure, with investor sentiment deteriorating sharply as losses deepen across the board.
Are Crypto Exchange Listings Losing Impact?
Historically, major exchange listings have been accompanied by sharp price surges. This happens because listings often increase visibility, expand liquidity, and attract new buyers. As a result, tokens typically experience a rapid influx of trading activity and interest immediately after going live.
However, in November 2025, the trend has slowed. For instance, today, OKX, one of the leading crypto exchanges, announced the listing of SEI (SEI) and DoubleZero (2Z).
“OKX is pleased to announce the listing of SEI (Sei), 2Z (DoubleZero) on our spot trading markets. SEI, 2Z deposits will open at 3:00 am UTC on November 14, 2025. SEI/USDT spot trading will open at 7:00 am UTC on Nov 14, 2025. 2Z/USDT spot trading will open at 9:00 am UTC on Nov 14, 2025,” the announcement read.
Nonetheless, neither token saw significant gains. BeInCrypto Markets data showed that SEI has dipped by over 8% in the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, it was trading at $0.16. At the same time, 2Z has fallen nearly 5% to $0.16.
However, the latest market data showed that both coins were down today. XPL traded at $0.23, down nearly 12% over the past day. TON dropped 6.4% in the same period to $1.94.
Lastly, BeInCrypto reported that Binance listed Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) and Meteora (MET) yesterday. These tokens saw brief, sharp pre-listing surges—60% for BANK and 8.6% for MET—but quickly lost traction. The altcoins closed in red on November 13.
According to the latest price data, BANK has lost nearly 46% of its value in the past day alone. Furthermore, MET has slipped nearly 1%. This highlights how cautious capital inflows are diminishing the impact of exchange listings on price performance.
Market Sentiment Reaches Extreme Fear
The shift could likely be tied to deteriorating sentiment, which continues to shape trader behavior across the market. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, widely regarded as a gauge of market sentiment, has plummeted into “Extreme Fear.” Yesterday, the index dropped to 15, its lowest level since February.
A surge of liquidations has amplified the market’s difficulties. CoinGlass data shows that over $900 million in long positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours. Overall, the crypto liquidations affected 249,520 traders, resulting in widespread losses and weakening their market position.
With confidence collapsing and liquidity thinning, traders may be more focused on preserving capital than chasing exchange listings. The market is now driven primarily by fear and defensive positioning, overshadowing the speculative enthusiasm that once fueled sharp post-listing rallies.
France has officially lifted all travel restrictions on Telegram founder Pavel Durov as of November 13, 2025, bringing to an end a year of mandatory police check-ins and movement restrictions. The dual French-Russian citizen, detained in Paris in August 2024, can now cross borders freely without judicial oversight.
This development is pivotal in an ongoing criminal investigation that could lead to Durov facing up to 10 years in prison and fines of over $550,000.
From Detention to Freedom: Timeline of Durov’s Legal Restrictions
Durov’s legal troubles began when authorities arrested him at Paris’s Le Bourget Airport in August 2024. The charges involved allegations that Telegram enabled organized crime due to insufficient content moderation. French prosecutors accused the platform of refusing to cooperate in tackling illegal content, with a particular focus on child sex abuse material.
Initially, Durov was barred from leaving France and had to report regularly to the police in Nice. Over several months, the restrictions eased, permitting short, controlled trips to the United Arab Emirates for no more than two weeks. However, he remained under French jurisdiction until now.
According to France 24, Durov complied with all requirements for one year before authorities lifted both travel and judicial restrictions. As a result, mandatory police check-ins and all geographic limitations on his movement were eliminated.
Durov faced three interrogations by French authorities. His lawyers consistently challenged the investigation’s legitimacy and methods, arguing that they violated both domestic and European law.
Criminal Investigation Remains Active as Restrictions End
Although Durov is free to travel, the criminal investigation is ongoing. French authorities are examining Telegram’s alleged role in facilitating illicit transactions, the distribution of child sex abuse imagery, and enabling illegal content. The charges focus on complicity in organized crime rather than direct involvement.
The case portrays Telegram as a platform vulnerable to criminal misuse because of its limited content moderation. During questioning in December 2024, Durov acknowledged growing criminal abuse on Telegram and promised stronger oversight. The platform has since introduced additional moderation tools.
Telegram implemented advanced AI-powered moderation systems in early 2024, according to company documentation. In 2025, the platform reported blocking more than 34 million groups and channels, demonstrating increased enforcement. These steps address frequent criticism that Telegram enables criminal networks.
Despite compliance efforts, Durov still faces the risk of 10 years imprisonment and fines up to $550,000 if convicted. The investigation could set key precedents for platform accountability in Europe, especially for encrypted messaging services popular within cryptocurrency communities.
Durov Criticizes French Authorities, Voices Free Speech Concerns
During the investigation, Durov has publicly criticized French authorities and expressed concerns regarding government overreach. He accused prosecutors of procedural errors and argued that his arrest harmed France’s reputation as a supporter of freedom. Durov has characterized the proceedings as an attack on free speech and encryption.
His defense argues that Telegram acts as a neutral platform, not a vehicle for crime. Durov has positioned himself as a defender of privacy and free expression, standing against what he considers European censorship. This view has resonated with cryptocurrency and privacy advocates who regard encrypted communications as vital to digital freedom.
Social media reactions to the removal of the travel ban have been positive among Durov’s supporters. Nevertheless, the broader legal implications are unresolved. Both Paris prosecutors and Durov’s legal team declined public comment on the current status, so questions about trial timing and outcomes remain.
The case underscores ongoing tensions between privacy-focused tech platforms and regulatory enforcement. As France’s investigation continues, its outcome could influence the regulation of messaging services and platform accountability for user content across Europe. For now, Durov’s restored freedom of movement represents a partial win, yet the legal dispute is far from settled.
VeChain has posted a modest recovery this month after a sharp October decline, but the recent price bounce has not been strong enough to reclaim lost ground.
VET rose more than 20% in the past week, yet it remains far below pre-crash levels. November has historically delivered strong returns, but traders appear unconvinced this year.
VeChain Has Lost Traders’ Confidence
VeChain’s price performance over the last seven years shows November has usually been its strongest month. The median return of 10.9% and the average return of 20.9% stand as the highest among all months. These gains often come after periods of muted activity, giving long-term holders reason to expect seasonal strength.
However, investors should exercise caution. December has been a difficult month for VET, often reversing November’s momentum. The altcoin has regularly posted losses during this period, signaling that any gains in November may not carry into year-end.
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Market participants remain cautious despite historical tailwinds. VeChain’s open interest (OI) has not recovered since the October crash, when it fell from $110 million to $28 million. That figure has remained unchanged for more than a month, pointing to weak conviction among traders.
This stagnant OI suggests that investors are not yet willing to deploy fresh capital into VET. Low derivatives activity can limit price strength. Furthermore, the lack of renewed participation signals that sentiment remains fragile heading into the final weeks of 2025.
At the time of writing, VET is forming a descending wedge pattern and trades at $0.0168. The token sits just below the $0.0173 resistance. This is a key level that could determine whether short-term momentum builds or fades.
A breakout from the wedge would be historically bullish. Such a move could lift VET toward $0.0200, helping erase a portion of the 28% October decline. A push toward this level would also extend the recent 20% weekly rise, strengthening confidence in a near-term recovery.
If VET fails to break above resistance, the pattern may lose its bullish structure. A drop below the $0.0157 support could send the price toward $0.0147. This outcome would weaken the bullish thesis, contradicting VeChain’s typical November performance and signaling continued uncertainty.
Criminals in Australia are impersonating law enforcement officers and using forged cybercrime reports to scam people into believing their personal data has been compromised.
Then, hackers pressure victims into transferring their crypto to scam-controlled wallets, draining their funds.
Scammers Exploit Fake Police Reports
Australian authorities have issued a warning after uncovering a scam in which cybercriminals impersonate federal police to steal cryptocurrency.
The AFP-led cybercrime coordination center has detected a series of schemes in which scammers obtain personal information and use it to lodge fake cybercrime reports through the government’s ReportCyber portal.
Scammers then reportedly call victims and claim their data appeared in a cryptocurrency-related breach. The scammers share a real-looking reference number and direct victims to check it online. The report appears in the system, which makes the call seem legitimate.
A second caller, pretending to be from the victim’s crypto platform, urges them to move their assets into a supposed cold storage wallet.
Officials emphasized that genuine law enforcement officers will never request access to cryptocurrency accounts, seed phrases, or banking details.
This case highlights a growing problem, as scammers are increasingly using social engineering and spoofed phone numbers to deceive victims.
In August 2025, a victim lost $91 million worth of Bitcoin after scammers impersonated support staff from Coinbase and major crypto services, marking one of the largest single thefts of its kind.
Earlier, in the United Kingdom, a fraudster posing as a senior police officer deceived another victim. The user lost $2.8 million in Bitcoin through a fake cold-storage website.
Two opposing crypto strategies went head-to-head during EMCD’s latest Crypto Battle, co-hosted with BeInCrypto, where investors debated how to survive and grow in a volatile market.
The live online event, held on October 30, featured Michael Wrubel, a crypto analyst and YouTuber known for high-risk altcoin strategies, and Jan Warmus, EMCD’s Director of Partnerships, representing a more conservative and mining-focused perspective.
Warmus called it “a sensible, beginner-friendly allocation,” stressing that staying with well-known assets and avoiding coins one doesn’t understand prevents major losses.
Wrubel countered that while Bitcoin and Ethereum are essential, “the big returns come from lower-cap projects” capable of outsized growth.
The Allure and Danger of Memecoins
When asked how to identify the next 10x token, both speakers agreed such predictions are nearly impossible. Warmus compared the odds to gambling: “Recent analysis showed only 0.12% of new coins reach that level—worse odds than roulette.”
Wrubel focused on sentiment, advising traders to “watch the community on X and Telegram” as hype and engagement often signal potential upside.
Bitcoin Mining Profitability
A story about an early miner selling thousands of BTC for a MacBook set the stage for discussion on Bitcoin’s long-term growth.
Wrubel projected Bitcoin could “surpass $1 million” as institutions adopt it as digital gold. Warmus agreed, linking Bitcoin’s rise to expanding institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
However, he warned that mining success now “depends on efficiency, energy costs, and scale,” describing modern mining as “an industrial, not a hobbyist business.”
For companies with $100,000 to allocate, Wrubel advised a simple 80/20 Bitcoin-Ethereum split. Warmus recommended a diversified model:
70–80% in Bitcoin, ideally with some funds in mining infrastructure;
15–20% in Ethereum;
Up to 10% for selective altcoins or tokenized assets.
He emphasized compliance and custody as top priorities for institutional entrants.
For small retail investors, Warmus highlighted Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) as the most reliable entry strategy. “If you invested $100 monthly since 2020, it would now be worth about $26,500,” he said. Wrubel, meanwhile, argued that those seeking “life-changing returns” must accept higher risk with small-cap assets.
Banking, Yield, and Risk
The discussion closed with questions on crypto’s equivalent to bank deposits. Wrubel noted staking as an alternative that provides yield. Warmus cautioned users to remember that “there’s no government guarantee” and that yield always depends on the platform’s risk management.
Closing and Audience Interaction
The session ended with a Q&A and a prize draw for five Tangem wallet winners. Viewers engaged actively in chat, sharing stories of gains and losses.
The contrast between Wrubel’s aggressive investing style and Warmus’s disciplined approach underscored the debate’s central theme: crypto success lies in balancing risk, knowledge, and patience.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR) is down almost 28% over the past month, while Bitcoin fell about 7.5% and Ethereum slipped 11.6% in the same window. But over the past six months, the BitMine price is still up 394%, far outperforming both assets.
Since BitMine mines Bitcoin and also holds Ethereum, it trades like a high-beta version of both. With Bitcoin showing early bottom signs and Ethereum stabilizing, BMNR now sits at a point where one breakout could restart its aggressive trend.
Price Strength Aligns With Volume And Trend Support
BMNR’s recent bounce from $35.73 to $40.60 was not a weak move or a dead cat bounce. The rise lined up with On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks whether volume is flowing in or out of an asset. OBV formed a higher low at the same time price formed a higher low between November 6 and November 11. That confirmed the rebound strength.
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OBV even printed a fresh higher high while price did not, which often shows hidden strength behind the candles. That’s the first bullish sign.
The trend indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), also supports the broader structure. Between August 1 and November 6, the BitMine price formed a higher low while the RSI formed a lower low, a hidden bullish divergence. That hints at seller exhaustion and a supposed local bottom, echoing Bitcoin’s bottom theory.
This continuation signal matches the six-month performance and shows the broader uptrend is still intact. Because BMNR reacts harder to Bitcoin and Ethereum, any upside in those assets tends to amplify its move.
One Roadblock Remains: Weak Money Flows Still Limit The Breakout
The missing piece comes from the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a tool that measures buying and selling pressure based on volume and price. CMF remains below zero and has been moving inside a downward trend. Every attempt CMF makes to break above that line tends to trigger a strong BMNR reaction.
The last attempt, between 6–7 November, helped BMNR jump 12%, showing how sensitive the stock is to money-flow strength.
Institutional accumulation is visible, with funds such as ARK Invest, BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Sumitomo Mitsui, and others holding millions of BMNR shares.
Institutional investors are accumulating $BMNR shares in the millions. Don’t sell them your shares!
But this has not yet been enough to push CMF above zero. Until CMF breaks its downward line and reclaims the zero level, money-flow pressure remains the only factor keeping BMNR from a cleaner breakout. Simply put, the BitMine price breakout hopes rest on the CMF breakout chances.
Key BitMine Price Levels Now Decide What Happens Next
BMNR now trades at a point where the upside and downside are clearly defined. The first major hurdle sits at $42.76. A close above this level opens the path toward $54.11, a strong barrier that has stopped most rally attempts since October 15. If BMNR can close above $54.11, the structure strengthens further toward $65.47, and even $71.79 if crypto momentum improves.
The downside remains simple. The entire setup fails only if BMNR breaks below $35.74. A clean move under this level exposes $30.29, which would invalidate the trend continuation signal from RSI and start a deeper downtrend.
For now, BMNR holds a bullish continuation structure, backed by OBV and RSI. But the breakout needs CMF to flip. Until the money-flow signal confirms, the chart stays strong but unconfirmed.
Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the second time in a week on Thursday, signalling renewed fragility in a market dominated by forced liquidations and heavy selling from long-term holders.
At the time of reporting, BTC was trading near $98,400. The drop erased a brief recovery above six figures and pushed sentiment toward caution across major trading desks.
Bitcoin Price Fails to Maintain the $100,000 Psychological Level
The decline triggered a new wave of liquidations. Data shows over $683 million wiped out in the past 24 hours, including $556 million in long positions. Traders were heavily positioned for upside.
Also, pressure intensified from long-term holders (LTH), one of Bitcoin’s most stable cohorts.
According to CryptoQuant data, addresses holding BTC for more than six months sold approximately 815,000 BTC in the last 30 days. This is the highest level of selling since January 2024.
The chart indicates a sustained distribution across cohorts ranging from 6 months to 7+ years, resulting in a consistent supply overhang at current prices.
This selling wave resembles prior cycle peaks where long-term holders locked in profits after multi-month rallies. The pattern is visible on the charts.
Each spike in LTH spending corresponds with local tops and periods of prolonged consolidation. The current climb to 815,000 BTC spent mirrors the heavy distribution seen at the 2021 and early-2024 highs.
Market analysts note that long-term holder behaviour matters more than short-term trading noise. When seasoned wallets send coins back into circulation, liquidity deepens, but price support weakens.
It's another one of those days:
All asset classes are trading sharply lower today.
And, attempted intra-day relief rallies are being sold into new lows; a textbook "emotional" correction.
This has become an increasingly common occurrence in 2025, particularly amid record…
Combined with the largest liquidation cluster of the week, the market absorbed both forced selling and voluntary selling at once—magnifying the drawdown.
The next key test sits at the $98,000–$100,000 range, where buyers must step in to prevent a deeper move toward mid-cycle support levels.
Analysts warn that several subtle market signals suggest Bitcoin may be approaching the start of a bear market in November.
Selling pressure from long-term holders, weakening correlation behavior with tech stocks, and Bitcoin’s failure to hold key technical levels are all indicating a fading of bullish momentum. These trends indicate growing downside risk even amid supportive macro conditions.
Early Warning Signs
Market analysts are increasingly concerned that Bitcoin’s broader uptrend may be weakening. One of the clearest warning signs is coming from long-term holders.
Since mid-year, veteran investors and early whales have been steadily selling their positions, a trend that has accelerated in the past year.
Long-term $BTC holders are accelerating their distribution, with supply declining fast and net position change falling sharply into negative territory. LTHs are booking profits as bulls defend $100k. https://t.co/yatqA1O7ndpic.twitter.com/rZ8XMSRZXR
This shift has triggered a danger signal on the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator. The metric shows when older, inactive coins suddenly move or get sold.
This month, negative CDD readings have coincided with ETF outflows, resulting in a combination of weak demand and rising supply.
“Long-term holders might be distributing into weakness, not strength—a potential bearish signal,” community analyst Maartunn said in a social media post.
While selling pressure from long-term holders is significant, a broader concern arises when examining Bitcoin’s behavior in relation to traditional financial markets.
Yet this relationship is becoming asymmetric. When the Nasdaq drops, Bitcoin tends to fall more sharply. When the Nasdaq rallies, Bitcoin reacts only mildly.
This imbalance reflects behavior observed in earlier bearish periods, such as the 2022 crypto winter. It suggests that investors treat Bitcoin as a high-risk asset during downturns but are hesitant to reward it when conditions improve.
“Historically, this kind of negative asymmetry doesn’t appear near tops but rather shows up near bottoms. When BTC falls harder on bad equity days than it rises on good ones, it usually signals exhaustion, not strength,” Wintermute’s Jasper de Maere said in a blog post.
Adding to this caution is Bitcoin’s recent failure to rebound from its 50-week moving average. This is the first time since the previous cycle bottom that BTC has not bounced from that long-term support.
For the first time since the bottom of the bear market, Bitcoin has not bounced off the 50w MA.
Prior to this month, Bitcoin has bounced of the 50w MA three times.
In earlier stages of the cycle, Bitcoin recovered from this level three times, each recovery triggering a strong rally. The latest failure to reclaim the 50-week MA suggests that a potential trend reversal may be forming.
Although not conclusive on their own, these signals become more notable because Bitcoin is declining despite government stimulus and despite Federal Reserve rate cuts. Normally, both developments act as strong bullish catalysts.
The question traders keep asking is simple: Will a crypto crash in 2026 happen, or has it already started? Every major downturn in this market has always followed the same pattern: Bitcoin completes its cycle top, sentiment peaks, and a major correction begins a few weeks later.
So, before we talk about the crash timeline, we need to establish whether Bitcoin has already topped. The usual peak window has passed, yet the key top signals have never been triggered. If the top is still ahead, the crash window moves into 2026. Here is how the data fits together.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Supply Clock Is the First Clue For the Crypto Crash
Bitcoin runs on a predictable schedule. Every 210,000 blocks, the block reward halves. This reduces new supply and normally pushes prices higher for twelve to eighteen months. Earlier cycles behaved the same way. The 2012 halving led to a top after about 13 months, the 2016 halving topped after around 17 months, and the 2020 halving peaked after about 18 months.
By this pattern, the April 20, 2024, halving pointed toward a peak between July and October 2025. Bitcoin even touched $126,000 in early October, and at the time, it looked like a textbook cycle top.
If this Bitcoin $BTC cycle mirrors 2015–2018 or 2018–2022, the top was on Oct 26, and a macro downtrend may have already begun. pic.twitter.com/7Vjm8p02sK
But one confirmation was missing. The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator, which has marked every major peak within one or two days, did not cross. Without that crossover, the October high becomes a mid-cycle high, not the final peak. That raises the question: what kept the cycle alive?
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Why This Cycle Is Running Longer Than Usual
Two forces extended this cycle beyond its normal timing.
First, ETF flows absorbed more supply than miners produced. Since early 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in more than $60 billion. Miners issue about 13,875 BTC per month, worth around $1.4 billion at current prices. During strong inflow periods, ETFs absorbed $4–5 billion per month, removing new supply faster than the network could create it.
Strong liquidity delays exhaustion and keeps risk assets supported. These two drivers pushed the cycle further than the usual halving window allows. With this backdrop, we move to the most accurate timing tool for final peaks: the Pi-Cycle Top Indicator.
Pi-Cycle: What It Is and What the Updated Numbers Tell Us
The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator compares two moving averages: the 111-day average and twice the 350-day average. When the 111-day line rises above the slower one, Bitcoin is usually one or two days from the final top. The signal has been precise in every major cycle.
To project when the lines will meet, we look at the slope of the 111-day average. Over recent months, it has risen between $200 and $400 per day. At $200 per day, the crossover would be about 462 days away, which points to February 2027. In case it moves at $320 per day, the “lines meet” sit around 289 days away, which points to August 2026. At $400 per day, it is roughly 231 days away, pointing to June 2026.
This places the realistic Pi-Cycle window between June and September 2026. Since Pi-Cycle has never missed a major peak, the October 2025 high is unlikely to be the final top. To understand how high Bitcoin can climb before the crypto crash comes knocking, we move to valuation — the MVRV Z-Score.
MVRV: What It Measures and When It Can Reach the Risk Zone
MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, which reflects the average price at which all coins last moved. High MVRV means holders have large unrealized profits, and past cycles topped when MVRV surged into extreme zones.
As of 12 November 2025:
Market value: $2.05 trillion
MVRV: 1.81
This implies a realized value near $1.13 trillion. Past cycle peaks typically formed when MVRV reached between 3.0 and 7.0. For this cycle, the warning zone is 3.0 to 3.5.
At MVRV 3.0, Bitcoin’s market value would be near $3.39 trillion, which equals roughly $174,000 per coin. At MVRV 3.5, the market value would be about $3.96 trillion, which equals roughly $203,000 per coin. These are the valuation ceilings where the market usually becomes unstable.
The Pi-Cycle top also falls in between these MVRV-led projections:
JUST IN: The Pi Cycle Top Indicator shows that #Bitcoin may top out above $194,500 this cycle 🚀
MVRV usually enters this zone about one month before the Pi-Cycle crossover. If the crossover happens in June 2026, MVRV overheats in May. In case it happens in August, risk builds in June or July. If it is in September, the pressure shifts into July or August. This places the MVRV risk window between May and August 2026, depending on how quickly the 111-day average of the Pi-Cycle climbs.
Global Liquidity Index: Why It Matters After Bitcoin MVRV
Bitcoin does not rely on internal metrics alone. Liquidity conditions determine how far the final surge can go. The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) tracks liquidity from major central banks and the broad money supply. Bitcoin reacts strongly to this index. In 2017 and 2021, GLI topped before Bitcoin, and Bitcoin peaked shortly afterward.
As of November 2025, GLI sits near 75 and has been rising by about four points per month. This pace comes from the index climbing roughly 18–20 points over the last five months. GLI peaks usually formed near 90, which places the next liquidity high between March and May 2026.
If the Federal Reserve turns softer, liquidity may stretch deeper into the year.
This creates a clear alignment. MVRV overheats in spring 2026, GLI peaks in spring 2026, and Pi-Cycle points to momentum exhaustion in summer 2026. The mismatch between liquidity and momentum sets up a classic bull-trap: liquidity peaks first, the market dips, and then Bitcoin pushes into a final, higher peak as Pi-Cycle completes.
The Convergence: The Full Picture
All major indicators converge within a single broad structure. The halving extension pushes the cycle top into mid-2026. MVRV shows overheating between May and August 2026. GLI suggests liquidity peaks between March and May 2026. Pi-Cycle points to a final top between June and September 2026.
This creates a March to August 2026 window where liquidity and momentum collide. The market may form two peaks: a liquidity-driven high in spring that becomes a bull trap, and a final Pi-Cycle peak in summer. A realistic top range is $200,000 to $250,000, which fits the valuation ceiling and the momentum timeline.
When Will the Crypto Crash in 2026 Begin?
In earlier cycles, Bitcoin fell one to four weeks after the final top. With the indicators aligning, the next major crypto crash in 2026 can begin any time from March to August, depending on which peak arrives first.
A crash, however, is only the first phase. A true bear market begins when lower highs and lower lows form for several consecutive weeks. In past cycles, this confirmation arrived six to ten weeks after the final top. Applying that pattern here, if Bitcoin peaks between June and September 2026, the confirmed bear market would begin between August and November 2026. This is when long-term downside pressure takes over, not just a sharp correction.
If liquidity peaks first, Bitcoin may fall 25–35%, reset leverage, and then attempt a final surge. If liquidity and momentum align later, the decline starts after the Pi-Cycle crossover.
Expected decline ranges:
A moderate drop of 50–60% pulls Bitcoin toward $90,000–$110,000
A deeper drop of 70% pushes it toward $70,000–$80,000
ETF custody may slow the fall, turning it into a longer correction instead of a sudden collapse. The key point stays the same: the $126,000 high in 2025 was not the cycle top. The real peak lies ahead in 2026, and the crash window opens soon after.
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