Dogecoin is down about 1% over the past week and dropped another 7.3% in the last 24 hours, making it one of the weakest large-cap coins during the latest market dip. The ETF noise did not help either. The countdown for the Bitwise spot Dogecoin ETF began on November 7, but DOGE has barely moved since then.
Whales have been buying too, yet the price keeps sliding. The charts show that one group can stop Dogecoin from breaking down, and they have not returned yet.
Whales Buy and ETF Buzz Builds — But Price Still Drops
Buying from whale wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE has continued since November 7. On that day, their holdings were 30.75 billion DOGE. Now they hold 34.11 billion DOGE. They added around 3.36 billion DOGE in one week. At today’s price, that represents more than $550 million in accumulated value.
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Even with this level of buying, DOGE is still down 1% over the same period. The ETF countdown also had no effect. Price stayed flat while institutional interest increased.
Looks like Bitwise is doing the 8(a) move for their spot Dogecoin ETF, which basically means they plan on going effective in 20 days barring an intervention. pic.twitter.com/y8jyxbYKXQ
When whales buy and the price does not respond, it usually means another force is stronger. That force is long-term holders.
This Hodler Group Has a History of Triggering Rallies and Bounces
The Hodler Net Position Change shows long-term wallets have been selling aggressively. This metric tracks whether long-term holders are adding (inflows) or removing (outflows) coins.
On November 9, long-term holders removed 62.3 million DOGE. As of November 13, that number has jumped to 148.3 million DOGE, leaving long-term wallets. That is a 138% increase in selling pressure in less than a week.
This same group triggered earlier price reactions:
• Between September 6–7, the metric flipped from outflows to inflows, and DOGE jumped about 33% shortly after.
• Between October 15–16, the same shift produced a smaller bounce of around 5% after a few days.
These moves show a clear pattern: price strength usually returns when long-term holders stop selling and begin adding again. Right now, the signal remains deep in outflows. Until it flips again, DOGE cannot build a real recovery.
Dogecoin Price Nears Breakdown Zone — One Level Holds the Entire Structure
DOGE now trades near $0.163 and sits near its largest cost-basis support cluster. The cost-basis heatmap shows the strongest concentration of holders between $0.164 and $0.165. As long as this zone holds, DOGE can stay stable and attempt a bounce or two.
Cost Basis Heatmap To Identify Supply Zones: Glassnode
If DOGE closes a daily candle below $0.164 (which is currently possible), it will slip under this cluster. With almost no heavy support levels beneath it, the price can drop quickly. The next key level is $0.158, only 2.6% lower. A breakdown there exposes $0.151 and deeper losses if the market stays weak.
On the upside, the DOGE price needs a move above $0.178 to show early strength. A stronger short-term reversal needs a clean break above $0.186. But neither move can hold unless long-term holders return and shift back to inflows.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR) is down almost 28% over the past month, while Bitcoin fell about 7.5% and Ethereum slipped 11.6% in the same window. But over the past six months, the BitMine price is still up 394%, far outperforming both assets.
Since BitMine mines Bitcoin and also holds Ethereum, it trades like a high-beta version of both. With Bitcoin showing early bottom signs and Ethereum stabilizing, BMNR now sits at a point where one breakout could restart its aggressive trend.
Price Strength Aligns With Volume And Trend Support
BMNR’s recent bounce from $35.73 to $40.60 was not a weak move or a dead cat bounce. The rise lined up with On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks whether volume is flowing in or out of an asset. OBV formed a higher low at the same time price formed a higher low between November 6 and November 11. That confirmed the rebound strength.
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OBV even printed a fresh higher high while price did not, which often shows hidden strength behind the candles. That’s the first bullish sign.
The trend indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), also supports the broader structure. Between August 1 and November 6, the BitMine price formed a higher low while the RSI formed a lower low, a hidden bullish divergence. That hints at seller exhaustion and a supposed local bottom, echoing Bitcoin’s bottom theory.
This continuation signal matches the six-month performance and shows the broader uptrend is still intact. Because BMNR reacts harder to Bitcoin and Ethereum, any upside in those assets tends to amplify its move.
One Roadblock Remains: Weak Money Flows Still Limit The Breakout
The missing piece comes from the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a tool that measures buying and selling pressure based on volume and price. CMF remains below zero and has been moving inside a downward trend. Every attempt CMF makes to break above that line tends to trigger a strong BMNR reaction.
The last attempt, between 6–7 November, helped BMNR jump 12%, showing how sensitive the stock is to money-flow strength.
Institutional accumulation is visible, with funds such as ARK Invest, BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Sumitomo Mitsui, and others holding millions of BMNR shares.
Institutional investors are accumulating $BMNR shares in the millions. Don’t sell them your shares!
But this has not yet been enough to push CMF above zero. Until CMF breaks its downward line and reclaims the zero level, money-flow pressure remains the only factor keeping BMNR from a cleaner breakout. Simply put, the BitMine price breakout hopes rest on the CMF breakout chances.
Key BitMine Price Levels Now Decide What Happens Next
BMNR now trades at a point where the upside and downside are clearly defined. The first major hurdle sits at $42.76. A close above this level opens the path toward $54.11, a strong barrier that has stopped most rally attempts since October 15. If BMNR can close above $54.11, the structure strengthens further toward $65.47, and even $71.79 if crypto momentum improves.
The downside remains simple. The entire setup fails only if BMNR breaks below $35.74. A clean move under this level exposes $30.29, which would invalidate the trend continuation signal from RSI and start a deeper downtrend.
For now, BMNR holds a bullish continuation structure, backed by OBV and RSI. But the breakout needs CMF to flip. Until the money-flow signal confirms, the chart stays strong but unconfirmed.
The question traders keep asking is simple: Will a crypto crash in 2026 happen, or has it already started? Every major downturn in this market has always followed the same pattern: Bitcoin completes its cycle top, sentiment peaks, and a major correction begins a few weeks later.
So, before we talk about the crash timeline, we need to establish whether Bitcoin has already topped. The usual peak window has passed, yet the key top signals have never been triggered. If the top is still ahead, the crash window moves into 2026. Here is how the data fits together.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Supply Clock Is the First Clue For the Crypto Crash
Bitcoin runs on a predictable schedule. Every 210,000 blocks, the block reward halves. This reduces new supply and normally pushes prices higher for twelve to eighteen months. Earlier cycles behaved the same way. The 2012 halving led to a top after about 13 months, the 2016 halving topped after around 17 months, and the 2020 halving peaked after about 18 months.
By this pattern, the April 20, 2024, halving pointed toward a peak between July and October 2025. Bitcoin even touched $126,000 in early October, and at the time, it looked like a textbook cycle top.
If this Bitcoin $BTC cycle mirrors 2015–2018 or 2018–2022, the top was on Oct 26, and a macro downtrend may have already begun. pic.twitter.com/7Vjm8p02sK
But one confirmation was missing. The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator, which has marked every major peak within one or two days, did not cross. Without that crossover, the October high becomes a mid-cycle high, not the final peak. That raises the question: what kept the cycle alive?
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Why This Cycle Is Running Longer Than Usual
Two forces extended this cycle beyond its normal timing.
First, ETF flows absorbed more supply than miners produced. Since early 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in more than $60 billion. Miners issue about 13,875 BTC per month, worth around $1.4 billion at current prices. During strong inflow periods, ETFs absorbed $4–5 billion per month, removing new supply faster than the network could create it.
Strong liquidity delays exhaustion and keeps risk assets supported. These two drivers pushed the cycle further than the usual halving window allows. With this backdrop, we move to the most accurate timing tool for final peaks: the Pi-Cycle Top Indicator.
Pi-Cycle: What It Is and What the Updated Numbers Tell Us
The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator compares two moving averages: the 111-day average and twice the 350-day average. When the 111-day line rises above the slower one, Bitcoin is usually one or two days from the final top. The signal has been precise in every major cycle.
To project when the lines will meet, we look at the slope of the 111-day average. Over recent months, it has risen between $200 and $400 per day. At $200 per day, the crossover would be about 462 days away, which points to February 2027. In case it moves at $320 per day, the “lines meet” sit around 289 days away, which points to August 2026. At $400 per day, it is roughly 231 days away, pointing to June 2026.
This places the realistic Pi-Cycle window between June and September 2026. Since Pi-Cycle has never missed a major peak, the October 2025 high is unlikely to be the final top. To understand how high Bitcoin can climb before the crypto crash comes knocking, we move to valuation — the MVRV Z-Score.
MVRV: What It Measures and When It Can Reach the Risk Zone
MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, which reflects the average price at which all coins last moved. High MVRV means holders have large unrealized profits, and past cycles topped when MVRV surged into extreme zones.
As of 12 November 2025:
Market value: $2.05 trillion
MVRV: 1.81
This implies a realized value near $1.13 trillion. Past cycle peaks typically formed when MVRV reached between 3.0 and 7.0. For this cycle, the warning zone is 3.0 to 3.5.
At MVRV 3.0, Bitcoin’s market value would be near $3.39 trillion, which equals roughly $174,000 per coin. At MVRV 3.5, the market value would be about $3.96 trillion, which equals roughly $203,000 per coin. These are the valuation ceilings where the market usually becomes unstable.
The Pi-Cycle top also falls in between these MVRV-led projections:
JUST IN: The Pi Cycle Top Indicator shows that #Bitcoin may top out above $194,500 this cycle 🚀
MVRV usually enters this zone about one month before the Pi-Cycle crossover. If the crossover happens in June 2026, MVRV overheats in May. In case it happens in August, risk builds in June or July. If it is in September, the pressure shifts into July or August. This places the MVRV risk window between May and August 2026, depending on how quickly the 111-day average of the Pi-Cycle climbs.
Global Liquidity Index: Why It Matters After Bitcoin MVRV
Bitcoin does not rely on internal metrics alone. Liquidity conditions determine how far the final surge can go. The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) tracks liquidity from major central banks and the broad money supply. Bitcoin reacts strongly to this index. In 2017 and 2021, GLI topped before Bitcoin, and Bitcoin peaked shortly afterward.
As of November 2025, GLI sits near 75 and has been rising by about four points per month. This pace comes from the index climbing roughly 18–20 points over the last five months. GLI peaks usually formed near 90, which places the next liquidity high between March and May 2026.
If the Federal Reserve turns softer, liquidity may stretch deeper into the year.
This creates a clear alignment. MVRV overheats in spring 2026, GLI peaks in spring 2026, and Pi-Cycle points to momentum exhaustion in summer 2026. The mismatch between liquidity and momentum sets up a classic bull-trap: liquidity peaks first, the market dips, and then Bitcoin pushes into a final, higher peak as Pi-Cycle completes.
The Convergence: The Full Picture
All major indicators converge within a single broad structure. The halving extension pushes the cycle top into mid-2026. MVRV shows overheating between May and August 2026. GLI suggests liquidity peaks between March and May 2026. Pi-Cycle points to a final top between June and September 2026.
This creates a March to August 2026 window where liquidity and momentum collide. The market may form two peaks: a liquidity-driven high in spring that becomes a bull trap, and a final Pi-Cycle peak in summer. A realistic top range is $200,000 to $250,000, which fits the valuation ceiling and the momentum timeline.
When Will the Crypto Crash in 2026 Begin?
In earlier cycles, Bitcoin fell one to four weeks after the final top. With the indicators aligning, the next major crypto crash in 2026 can begin any time from March to August, depending on which peak arrives first.
A crash, however, is only the first phase. A true bear market begins when lower highs and lower lows form for several consecutive weeks. In past cycles, this confirmation arrived six to ten weeks after the final top. Applying that pattern here, if Bitcoin peaks between June and September 2026, the confirmed bear market would begin between August and November 2026. This is when long-term downside pressure takes over, not just a sharp correction.
If liquidity peaks first, Bitcoin may fall 25–35%, reset leverage, and then attempt a final surge. If liquidity and momentum align later, the decline starts after the Pi-Cycle crossover.
Expected decline ranges:
A moderate drop of 50–60% pulls Bitcoin toward $90,000–$110,000
A deeper drop of 70% pushes it toward $70,000–$80,000
ETF custody may slow the fall, turning it into a longer correction instead of a sudden collapse. The key point stays the same: the $126,000 high in 2025 was not the cycle top. The real peak lies ahead in 2026, and the crash window opens soon after.
HBAR price is down almost 1% today and has traded flat over the past month. It is up 5.7% in the last seven days, but that bounce does not change the bigger picture.
The chart is close to forming a bearish structure that points to a deeper drop unless one level holds.
Bearish Pattern Forms as Two Risks Amplify
HBAR is close to completing a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart. If price slips below the neckline, the setup signals a potential 28% decline. This pattern is not confirmed yet, but it sits near completion — and the next moves depend heavily on volume behavior.
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That brings the focus to On-Balance Volume (OBV), a tool that tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of the asset. OBV has been rising slowly along an ascending trendline since 23 October, but this is not a strong signal.
Each time OBV drifts toward the lower edge of this trendline, HBAR price pulls back, showing that buyers are barely holding momentum. OBV is now back at the edge again, which increases the risk of a breakdown. If OBV slips under this line, the head-and-shoulders setup gains momentum.
HBAR Needs Volume Support To Avoid Crash: TradingView
A second risk comes from the leverage map. Over the past seven days on Bitget alone:
Longs outweigh shorts by almost 25%, which leaves the market exposed. If price reaches the neckline, led by weak OBV, a long squeeze could kick in, accelerating the downside.
Key Levels Now Decide Whether HBAR Price Drops or Escapes
HBAR now comes down to two paths:
Bearish path (likely if the neckline breaks): The neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern sits near $0.160. A clean drop below it completes the structure and exposes a 28% fall, with the HBAR price chart pointing toward $0.113 and even $0.100 if long liquidations cascade.
Bullish path (only if reclaimed): A recovery starts only if HBAR reclaims $0.199 with strength. A full invalidation happens at $0.219, which erases the pattern and shifts momentum back to buyers.
For any bullish scenario to hold, OBV must stay above its ascending trendline. If OBV fails, the neckline breaks faster — and the long squeeze risk increases sharply. For now, the HBAR price is heading toward a crash site, with one level ($0.160) still standing between the price and the fall.
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