The Zcash price traded flat over the past 24 hours, even as almost $2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated during the sell-off. This makes ZEC one of the few coins that held ground amid the broader market’s decline.
It is still up more than 27% week-on-week, but the next breakout is not guaranteed yet, unless the price clears one important hurdle.
Momentum Signals Reveal The Sell-Off Win, but Risks Are Not Gone
On the 12-hour chart, Zcash continues to move inside a rising channel. The upper trend line has only two touch points, so it can break easily if momentum improves. But the breakout theory did run into some issues during the sell-off, primarily led by three key indicators.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows if real demand is supporting the price. Between November 19 and 20, the price made a higher low, but OBV made a lower low.
That kind of bearish divergence weakens a trend. OBV touched the channel support on November 20 and bounced, avoiding a deeper breakdown. But ZEC needs OBV to move above 10.09 million to confirm stronger demand.
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Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks large wallet inflows, has been falling since November 7, which explains why ZEC failed to break the top of the rising channel.
CMF briefly crossed above zero on November 14 and helped trigger a mid-rally bump. The indicator is now back above the zero line. Yet, a move above 0.02 would be a stronger confirmation that money flow has recovered.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), the momentum indicator, however, added the main risk.
Between November 10 and 16, the Zcash price made a higher high, but RSI made a lower high. That bearish divergence showed momentum fading while the Zcash price rose.
RSI Hitting Zcash Price In The First Place: TradingView
This is also when bears briefly took control, and it matches the OBV and CMF weakness. Now RSI is moving with the price again, showing momentum support coming back. That is why Zcash “barely” beat the sell-off instead of flipping into a deeper reversal.
Zcash Price Levels Show the Breakout War Still Ahead
The Zcash price levels now decide whether bulls can take control of the breakout war.
The first major barrier is $766, the first breakout target. This is the trend-based extension zone before which ZEC stalled earlier. Clearing $766 would show the first real shift in momentum.
If ZEC breaks $766, the next key target is $978. That level also represents the breakout possibility of the rising channel itself. A clean move above $978 would open the path toward four-digit prices.
On the downside, $635 is the first support. Losing it exposes $555. A drop under $555 would push ZEC out of the rising channel and turn the trend neutral. This is where the bull-bear power indicator matters.
The bull-bear power indicator compares price to a basic trend value to show who is controlling short-term strength. Post the RSI divergence (10–16 November), bears briefly took control, matching the mid-channel pullback.
But the indicator has flipped back into the positive zone now, which means bulls are in control again. Because bulls now lead on the bull-bear power indicator, the breakout war intensifies above $766. If the Zcash price breaks $766 while bull-bear power stays positive, Zcash gets a real chance to attack $978, the key breakout level that would decide the next leg of the trend.
The XRP price trades near $1.90, down about 9% over the past 24 hours and extending its 30-day decline to around 19%. A few bottoming signals have appeared, especially from short-term holders.
But the XRP price still looks far from a recovery. This piece explains why the bounce has not happened yet.
Short-Term Capitulation Has Appeared, but the Recovery Is Missing
The short-term holder NUPL, which measures net unrealized profit or loss, has dropped to –0.30, its lowest reading this year. This level marks capitulation, a phase where most recent buyers are holding losses and are either forced to exit or emotionally flushed out.
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This time, despite a deeper capitulation reading, XRP is still sliding. The missing element comes from the spent coins data.
Spent Coins Show Peak Capitulation Has Not Fully Played Out
The spent coins age band metric shows how many XRP coins from different age groups are being moved. When spent coins rise while price falls, it shows real capitulation pressure. This metric doesn’t only include the short-term holders and might also show how aggressively the long-term and mid-term holders are moving XRP.
A strong example came earlier this month.
Between November 2 and November 5, the price dropped from $2.54 to $2.15. During the same period, spent coins increased from 20.32 million to 104.85 million. This was a rise of about 416%, which marked a clear capitulation event. That ensured a local bottom formation on November 5.
The current structure, coins moving while the price corrects, is similar but much smaller.
Between November 17 and now, the XRP price dropped from $2.27 to $1.96. Spent coins increased from 45.87 million to 97.31 million, a rise of about 112%.
Since 112% is far below the earlier 416% spike, the washout phase may not be complete. If spent coins continue rising toward early-November levels, the XRP price may see more downside before the final bottom forms.
This incomplete washout explains why the short-term capitulation reading has not triggered a recovery yet. And why some more XRP price downside could be waiting.
XRP Price Levels Suggest One More Downside Zone
XRP sits close $1.95, an important support. Losing this level exposes the next zone near $1.57, which could highlight the final XRP bottom if capitulation continues. The price is currently under the support, but for a breakdown confirmation, it needs a clean daily close under $1.95.
One more risk is building on the chart. The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is moving closer to the 200-day average. If the 100 moves below the 200, traders treat it as a bearish crossover. And that could be a bigger short-term correction catalyst.
An exponential moving average (EMA) gives more weight to recent prices, so it reacts faster than a simple moving average and helps confirm short-term pressure.
For the XRP price to show early strength, it must first reclaim $2.08, followed by $2.26. That would invalidate the near-term bearish trend.
The crypto market has taken a heavy hit over the past month. Total market cap fell from $4.27 trillion on October 6 to $2.98 trillion on November 19, a drop of about 30%. The rebound to $3.12 trillion has not changed the debate — traders remain split.
One group says a deeper bear market is forming. The other says the correction already looks like late-stage weakness. This piece focuses on the second group. Several telltale readings now hint that the crypto bull market could start sooner than expected.
Each of the five reasons below reflects one of three things: peak weakness, peak capitulation, or a rise in fresh buying power. Together, they might be forming one of the strongest early bull cycle setups seen.
Short-Term Selling Pressure Looks Close to Exhaustion
Short-term holders have been selling at one of the fastest paces in months, and this is usually what happens near a bottom.
Bitcoin lettuce hands in losses have been dumping at an accelerated pace.
Bitcoin Munger flagged the spike in coins sent to exchanges at a loss, while JA Maartunn highlighted a similar surge on CryptoQuant, with more than 60,000 Bitcoin moved at a loss within hours. This kind of panic selling often marks the “clean-out” phase before a trend shift from bear market vibes.
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The on-chain data confirms it. The short-term holder SOPR fell to 0.96 on November 15, matching the same level from April 7. SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, shows whether coins spent on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. When it drops under 1 and then stabilizes, it often signals that weak holders have already capitulated.
Crypto Bull Market Signal Via STH SOPR: CryptoQuant
Short-term holders matter because they are the group that reacts the fastest during corrections. They panic-sell earlier, hit stop losses quicker, and usually dump into weakness. This is why short-term selling pressure almost always peaks near market bottoms.
After the April reset, Bitcoin rallied from $76,270 to $123,345 within months, a near 62% move. With SOPR now back at 0.97, the latest drop hints that the selling pressure may be close to burnout.
This sets up the next question: Is fresh buying power building up elsewhere? That’s where the next indicator comes in.
Stablecoin Power Is Building Again
If short-term sellers are close to exhaustion, the next question is simple: Is there enough fresh buying power to lift prices?
Right now, the stablecoin data says yes.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped to 11.59, its lowest reading in over a year. SSR compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the total stablecoin supply. When SSR falls, it means stablecoins hold more buying power relative to Bitcoin. Traders sometimes refer to this as “dry powder.”
Stablecoin Supply Ratio Hits Yearly Lows: CryptoQuant
This level is even lower than the 12.89 reading seen on April 8, the same period when Bitcoin bottomed near $76,276 before rallying for months. Lower SSR means stablecoins can buy more Bitcoin per unit of supply, which usually appears near market lows.
A second confirmation comes from the RSI of SSR, highlighted by analyst Maartunn. It sits near 26, a level that has repeatedly aligned with Bitcoin bottoms during the past bear markets. A low RSI here means stablecoin buying power is oversold relative to Bitcoin’s size — a rare setup that often appears before trend shifts.
Taken together, the rising stablecoin reserves and the deeply compressed SSR show the market has the liquidity needed for a crypto bull market rebound.
Altcoin Profit Reset Might Be Quietly Strengthening the Crypto Bull Market Case
Short-term capitulation and low SSR already show that selling pressure is close to exhaustion. The next layer comes from altcoins, where the reset is even deeper.
Glassnode’s latest data shows that only about 5% of altcoin supply is still in profit, which is a level normally seen during late-stage capitulation. When almost every holder is underwater, the market usually has very little left to sell.
Altcoin relative profits are stabilizing in deep capitulation territory, with only ~5% of supply in profit, while Bitcoin’s profits have just begun to decline sharply. This unusual divergence between BTC and alts is unprecedented in prior cycles.
This is similar to Bitcoin’s own wipeout, where 95% of all coins bought in the last 155 days are now underwater — higher than the COVID and FTX crashes.
JUST IN: 95% of all Bitcoin bought in the last 155 days is now underwater
This combination matters because altcoins often stabilize before Bitcoin when profit ratios collapse this sharply. Even though Bitcoin dominance is still near 60%, the gap between Bitcoin’s profit decline and the near-zero altcoin profit level suggests altcoins might be closer to forming a base.
If the crypto bull market does start from a deep reset, altcoins are often the first to respond simply because they have no remaining overhead pressure. This raises the possibility that an altcoin-led phase could start first.
Sentiment Drops to Extreme Fear: Exactly How Bull Markets Start?
After looking at altcoin losses and Bitcoin’s underwater supply, the next piece that ties the crypto bull market story together is sentiment. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index fell to 10 on November 15, marking its lowest reading since February 27, when Bitcoin traded near $84,718. That earlier reading came just weeks before Bitcoin bottomed in April and began the same rally we referenced earlier — the move from $76,276 on April 8 to $123,345 by August 13, a 62% jump.
This new drop to 10 matters because extreme fear usually appears after most of the selling is done. Even during the April rebound, the index only briefly hit 18 and never slipped back to 10. Falling to that range again suggests the market has already gone through its emotional flush.
Industry leaders like Thomas Chen, CEO of Function, also describe this phase as washed-out and emotionally stretched:
“Allocator behavior has tilted sharply toward selloffs with over $2.8B in outflows… it almost feels like it’s moving back to the question: do I even want to hold BTC in this environment? With the Fear and Greed Index at extreme fear, this looks similar to the 2022 Luna crash,” he said.
Coming right after altcoin capitulation and record-low stablecoin ratios, this fear reset strengthens the broader case that the base for the next crypto bull market may be forming.
A Fresh Death Cross Just Finished Playing Out — And Bitcoin Could React?
The final signal pointing toward a possible crypto bull market is the new death cross that formed on November 15. A death cross happens when the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average. Moving averages show the average closing price over a period, so this crossover often highlights trend exhaustion rather than the start of a long crash.
Bitcoin dropped about 17% during the entire “crossing-in” phase, leading to the final signal. This move is almost identical to the 16% drop seen during the April death-cross setup. That April structure played out fully, wiped out weak momentum, and then the April-to-August rally started.
Crypto Market Analysis And Death Cross: TradingView
This time, something similar is happening under the surface. The price made a higher low during these two market phases, but the RSI is making a lower low. RSI tracks momentum, and this kind of hidden bullish divergence usually hints that sellers are tiring. It acts like the final pressure release before the uptrend started earlier continues. And this aligns with the peak capitulation theory shared earlier.
Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, pointed out that the recent breakdown reflects a macro-driven flush, not just a chart event.
“Bitcoin’s drop below $90,000 reflects a perfect storm of macro headwinds and profit-taking. Long-term holders have distributed over 815,000 BTC in the past month, the most aggressive selling since 2024,” he highlighted.
That was the case earlier this year, and it is one reason traders think the crypto bull market foundation is quietly forming again. However, if the Bitcoin price doesn’t react soon to this recently formed crossover, the bull market inception might have to wait longer.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading near $0.156, down almost 19% over the past month and 11% in the past week. While a few large-cap coins are trying to build early recovery signs, the Dogecoin price is doing the opposite. The trend still tilts lower, and the signals forming on the chart and on-chain point to weakness rather than relief.
The short-term structure shows why the Dogecoin (DOGE) price weakness may continue before any meaningful upside can develop.
Momentum Weakens As Hidden Bearish Divergence Forms
The clearest problem sits in the momentum data. Between Nov. 15 and Nov. 18, the Dogecoin price made a lower high, but the RSI made a higher high. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures whether buying or selling pressure is strong. When RSI climbs while the price makes a lower high, it forms a hidden bearish divergence.
Traders treat this as a continuation warning, meaning the existing downtrend still has room.
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This weakness becomes more convincing when you look at long-term DOGE holders. Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change shows how many coins held for more than 155 days are moving. These wallets usually sell only when conviction collapses.
On Nov. 9, long-term holders were distributing about 62.35 million DOGE. By Nov. 19, that figure had grown to 237.20 million DOGE. That is a sharp increase of nearly 175 million DOGE in ten days, a 280% jump. This reflects a clear rise in long-term selling pressure.
Taken together, momentum is weakening, and holders with strong hands are stepping back. That combination makes short-term rebounds easy to fade. All while exposing downside risks.
Dogecoin Price Faces More Downside Unless Key Levels Break
The Dogecoin price continues to lean lower along its trend structure, so the next supports come from the trend-based projection levels. The first important level sits at $0.150, which has repeatedly acted as a short-term floor. Losing this support could push the price toward $0.140 and even $0.127 if broader market sentiment softens.
On the upside, the Dogecoin price needs to reclaim $0.163 to pause the bearish pattern. A clean move above $0.163 would shift momentum enough to target $0.186, the next major resistance on the chart. Until that happens, the downtrend remains intact, and every bounce carries the risk of fading.
For now, the overall picture stays simple. The trend is negative, the momentum favors sellers, and long-term holders are still distributing. Unless Dogecoin starts reclaiming key levels, the DOGE price trend is likely to continue — just not in the direction Long traders are hoping for.
Cardano has been one of the weakest large-cap coins this month. The Cardano price has dropped almost 30% over the past 30 days and nearly 26% since November 11. This drop pushed ADA toward the lower support of its falling wedge, a structure that usually leans bullish but can turn long-term bearish if broken.
Even with this pressure, three important indicators have turned positive just as Cardano sits on its last major support.
Early Signs of Buyer Strength Near Last Support
Two indicators that track buying strength and volume behavior have shifted at the same time, right as the Cardano price reached the critical $0.45 support.
The CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) tracks whether money is flowing in or out based on price and volume. It had been falling since November 10 and even dropped under zero during Cardano’s sharp correction. But from November 16 to November 19, CMF formed a higher high while the price made a lower high. This is a bullish divergence because CMF rising while price weakens shows stronger inflows than the chart reflects.
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On-Balance Volume is a simple way to see if buyers or sellers have been more active. OBV had been stuck under a downward trend line for weeks, matching the steady decline in Cardano price. But as ADA touched the $0.45 zone, OBV pushed above this trend line for the first time in a while. This usually shows buyers starting to participate again before the ADA price reacts.
When CMF and OBV improve together near a major support, it often means the market may be preparing for a short-term recovery attempt. But the Cardano price still needs validation from its on-chain behavior.
Holder Behavior Shows Strong Conviction During the Drop
The Spent Coins Age Band tracks how many tokens from different wallet age groups are being moved. When many coins move at once, it often signals fear or heavy selling. When token movement drops while prices fall, it usually shows conviction from long-term holders.
On November 1, ADA saw its spent coins activity peak with the movement of 159.01 million tokens. By November 19, the metric had dropped by roughly 27%, even though the price kept falling.
This means far fewer tokens moved during the correction. When token movement drops this sharply during a sell-off, it strengthens the idea that Cardano may be trying to save its trendline support rather than break below it. That’s the third reason pushing for the rebound angle.
Cardano Price Must Hold $0.45 or Risk a Breakdown
Cardano price is trading directly on the lower trend line of its falling wedge and its strongest support at $0.45–$0.44. If this zone holds on a daily close, ADA can attempt a rebound. Moving above $0.50–$0.52 would be the first sign of strength, but the real recovery begins only after Cardano retakes $0.60.
That level flips the short-term trend and sets up a retest of $0.69, which is the point where a full wedge breakout becomes possible. Crossing that level would mean that the Cardano price could turn its supposed rebound into a rally attempt.
If the support fails, the structure breaks. A daily close under $0.44 opens a drop toward $0.40, with the possibility of deeper dips if market sentiment weakens further. The bullish setup becomes invalid below this zone.
BMNR stock is up 4.3% today, even as it remains down more than 21% over the past five days, mostly following Ethereum’s 12% slide this week. With Q4 earnings set for November 21, early strength in the BMNR price has raised the question of whether the stock is positioning itself ahead of the market, again.
The last time this happened, BMNR moved much earlier than Ethereum. With bottoming signs flashing across crypto, traders are watching to see if history is lining up once more.
BMNR Has Front-Run Ethereum Before — And Conditions Look Similar
Between June 26 and July 3, Ethereum moved only 10%. In that same period, BitMine (BMNR) surged 3,993% from $3.91 to $160.10. It is worth noting that the Q3 results came out on July 2.
Only after BMNR’s explosion did Ethereum begin its real run, rallying more than 100% from early July to late August. BMNR had clearly priced in the move earlier, showing a pattern of reacting to expectations rather than the move itself.
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Now, with several bottoming signals forming across Bitcoin and Ethereum, traders are asking whether BMNR is again sensing a shift under the surface. The stock is stabilizing right before earnings — the same timing as its July behavior — while the broader crypto market is trying to form a base.
This brings us to what BMNR’s own indicators are signaling.
Divergence Still Supports the Uptrend, but Volume Must Confirm the Breakout
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures price momentum. Between June 27 and November 17, BMNR made a higher low, while RSI made a lower low. That is hidden bullish divergence, which appears in assets that remain in long-term uptrends even during strong pullbacks.
But the real confirmation still rests with On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days to show who controls the market.
Here is what matters now:
OBV remains below a descending trend line, which has capped every attempt at recovery.
OBV is now curling upward as the result date approaches.
A break above this OBV trend line is the technical trigger that usually leads to large moves in BMNR.
There is also a long-term OBV divergence on the chart.
From September 5 to November 17, the BMNR price made a lower low, but the OBV made a higher low. This is often a sign that seller pressure is fading in the background, even if the price hasn’t reacted yet.
One more positive signal appears on the CMF. The Chaikin Money Flow tracks inflows and outflows using price and volume. CMF has now broken above its descending trend line, which means inflows are rising again right before the result date. This does not confirm a breakout on its own, but it strengthens the case that buyers are returning at the right time.
This aligns with Donald Dean’s NAV model.
$BMNR BitMine Immersion, 3.0% of ETH Supply – Updated Targets, New Net Asset Value (mNAV) Calculations
NAV Targets at 1.6x: $4,000 ETH = $71.10 BMNR $5,000 ETH = $88.06 BMNR $6,000 ETH = $105.02 BMNR
In the downtrend, near support from August. BMNR would need to get above $37… pic.twitter.com/AcPoHgIDS0
Dean uses a NAV multiple where BMNR’s value tracks ETH ownership and cash reserves.
He estimates the stock’s upside using ETH’s percentage moves. This means that if Ethereum rebounds 10%, BMNR’s fair value under Dean’s model moves well above the current range, placing the stock closer to its higher extensions. That’s close to $65, per the chart.
So the next move depends on two things: OBV breakout and Ethereum price direction. If both align near the earnings release, the BMNR price may once again outpace the crypto market.
XRP price trades near $2.15 today after dropping over 18% since November 10. The token has spent the past month moving inside a bearish channel. And the latest structure now shows weakening volume, rising long-term selling, and the price sitting close to a key support.
If buyers fail to defend one level, the XRP price could slide into a deeper leg of its downtrend.
Falling Channel and Volume Breakdown Strengthen the Bearish Setup
XRP continues to move inside a descending channel that has guided every bounce and rejection for more than a month. This pattern is a bearish continuation structure, and the recent candles show that each recovery attempt is getting weaker.
This weakness is most visible in the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. OBV adds volume on green days and subtracts it on red days to show whether buying or selling pressure is dominating. Between November 4 and 9, OBV briefly moved above the descending trend line connecting its lower highs. The XRP price responded with a quick short-term bounce.
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But once OBV slipped back below the trend line on November 12, the tone changed. The indicator has stayed below that trend line since, showing that market-wide buying pressure has continued to weaken. This aligns perfectly with the price action: XRP began its 18.6% decline on November 10, the same window in which OBV started curling downward again.
The lack of volume strength means buyers are not stepping in with conviction. That sets the stage for the next metric.
Long-Term Holders Are Increasing Their Selling
Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change tracks how much long-term holder supply is entering or leaving exchanges and wallets. It is one of the clearest measures of long-term conviction.
Over the past few days, long-term holders have sharply increased their selling again after dipping to the lowest fortnightly level on November 16:
Nov 16: –63.57 million XRP
Nov 18: –94.50 million XRP
Now, that’s a 48.6% rise in long-term outflows in just two days.
This confirms that the pressure shown on OBV is not random noise. It comes at the same time that long-term holders are reducing their positions more aggressively. When long-term seller activity rises while volume weakens, it typically signals a market that has not found its bottom yet. And that view keeps every nearby support level at risk.
Together, OBV and Hodler Net Position Change point to the same idea: buyers are not absorbing the increased selling pressure.
XRP Price Levels That Matter Most
The XRP price now sits close to the most important support on the chart: $2.10. This level has acted as a reaction zone multiple times inside the falling channel. If the daily candle closes below $2.10, XRP could extend its move toward $1.77, the long-term channel floor.
On the upside, the level that must be reclaimed to invalidate this bearish setup is $2.41. Clearing $2.41 would show that buyers have regained strength and would open the path toward $2.58. Only a daily close above $2.58 would flip the short-term trend back to bullish.
Right now, the structure still leans negative. Volume is weakening. Long-term holders are selling faster. And the XRP price remains inside a falling channel. Unless XRP reclaims $2.41, all eyes stay on $2.10. This fragile floor decides whether XRP stabilizes or enters a deeper slide.
Pi Coin has been one of the more resilient tokens this month. While the broader market slipped 1.1% today, Pi Coin price still gained 0.8% and is up 11.5% over the past month. Keeping PI’s price history in mind, the 11.5% move isn’t anything less than a rally.
It recently failed a breakout that could have taken it higher, but the trend hasn’t flipped bearish. Several early signs show buyers still holding control, and the rally may not be done yet.
Early Trend Still Points To A Price Rebound
Pi Coin’s first bullish signal comes from the 4-hour chart, which helps spot early trend changes. On this timeframe, the 20-period EMA is closing in on the 50-period EMA. An EMA (Exponential Moving Average) tracks price over time with more weight on recent candles. A bullish crossover happens when the short-term EMA moves above the long-term EMA, often marking a momentum shift.
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A similar crossover attempt happened on November 11, but sellers stepped in before the lines crossed, forcing the move to fail. If bulls hold price steady this time, the crossover could complete and give Pi Coin its next push.
On the daily chart, the Bull-Bear Power indicator supports this idea. The indicator tracks the gap between buying pressure and selling pressure. Despite the failed breakout at $0.229, Bull-Bear Power has flipped firmly into bullish territory, showing buyers are still in control.
Bulls Are Still In Control Despite The Failed Breakout: TradingView
If this strength continues, the EMA crossover is less likely to fail like it did on November 11.
Pi Coin Price Action And Money Flow Hold The Key
The Pi Coin price continues to struggle with $0.229, which has rejected every breakout attempt so far in the near-term. If a daily close forms above this level, the next target becomes $0.236 (another strong resistance), followed by a possible move toward $0.266, the upper resistance zone.
The failed breakout earlier this week lined up with a drop in Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). CMF measures whether big wallets are adding or removing capital. Pi Coin saw inflows between November 15–16, but money quickly exited afterward, falling back toward the trendline.
As long as CMF stays above its rising trendline, buyers still have a path to regain control. A break back above the zero line would confirm big money returning, strengthening the bullish case and supporting the EMA crossover from the 4-hour chart.
If CMF falls under the trendline, the downside opens up. In that case, Pi Coin could revisit $0.201, and under deeper market stress, even lower levels.
For now, Pi Coin needs only a 0.48% push to close above $0.229. If the crossover completes and CMF turns back up, Pi Coin may finally clear this barrier and extend its month-long rally.
The FIRO price has surged almost 60% in the past 24 hours and is now up more than 300% over the past month. The move has outpaced even Zcash, one of the strongest privacy coins this cycle. FIRO, previously known as Zcoin, is clearly riding the renewed momentum in the privacy coin space.
The key question now is whether this rally still has fuel left — and whether FIRO can realistically revisit the $10+ zone.
Flag Breakout Sets the Tone for FIRO’s Rally
FIRO recently broke out of a flag pattern, a classic bullish continuation structure that forms when price pauses after a sharp run-up.
The pole formed between October 31 and November 10, followed by a tight consolidation from November 10–15. FIRO then broke out on November 15, completing the pattern.
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Based on the pole projection, the technical target sits near $8.49, assuming broader market conditions remain supportive. With privacy coins catching strong flows across the board, FIRO has a realistic shot at reaching this extension.
Big Money Flows and Bull-Bear Power Add Strength to the Move
The breakout has strong backing from volume-based indicators. FIRO’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — an indicator that measures buying vs selling pressure weighted by volume — has been rising through the consolidation. CMF held steady even as the FIRO price was consolidating, indicating that big wallets were quietly accumulating during the dip.
The CMF ascending trendline breakout is still pending. A clean move above the upper CMF trendline would confirm a new wave of inflows and support FIRO’s next leg toward the projected target. However, until the CMF breakout happens, the FIRO price action remains prone to pullbacks.
The Bull-Bear Power indicator also confirms strength. This indicator measures the gap between buying pressure and selling pressure. On FIRO’s chart, Bull-Bear Power has surged to bullish levels higher than those seen during the original pole, validating the force behind this breakout.
If FIRO clears $8.49 (the pole projection), the next psychological and technical target becomes $10.35, marking the return of the double-digit zone.
On the downside, a move below $3.00 weakens the structure, and falling under $2.49 breaks it completely. These are the invalidation levels for the current rally. That could happen only if a FIRO price pullback runs deeper, led by big money exiting and not breaking the trendline that we mentioned earlier.
HBAR is down almost 11% in the past week, and yesterday it finally broke below its neckline, completing the head and shoulders pattern we projected on November 13. Despite the breakdown, the last 24 hours have been surprisingly flat.
And while the structure still points toward lower levels, early signs suggest that traders betting on deeper downside may be walking into a bear trap instead. Here is why.
Selling Rises and Shorts Pile Up — But The Setup Isn’t That Simple
HBAR’s spot flows show a sharp shift in behaviour after the breakdown. On November 14, HBAR recorded –4.03 million in net outflows, meaning more tokens were leaving exchanges as buyers accumulated.
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That is a 110% swing from negative to positive netflow — a clear sign that sellers have stepped in aggressively after the pattern break.
The derivatives market shows an even stronger tilt. On Bitget’s liquidation map alone, short exposure is $16.71 million, while long exposure is $6.09 million. This means shorts now control 73% of all leveraged positions — about 2.7 times more than longs.
This kind of crowded positioning often fuels the conditions for a bear trap risk, where price briefly reverses upward and forces shorts to close their positions at a loss.
The HBAR price breakdown has occurred, yes — but this positioning makes it dangerous to assume the move will continue uninterrupted.
One Move Could Drive HBAR Price Rebound, Hitting Short Liquidations
The price chart contains the key reason a bear trap is possible. While HBAR broke below the neckline, the follow-through has been weak. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a metric that measures price momentum to show if an asset is oversold or overbought — is showing a notable pattern.
Between October 17 and November 14, the price made a lower low, while RSI formed a higher low. This is a bullish RSI divergence, and it often appears just before a short-term reversal attempt.
If the divergence plays out, the first trigger is a move back above $0.160, which is exactly where the neckline sits. Reclaiming this level puts a large block of short positions at risk.
The liquidation map shows that shorts begin getting squeezed as the price rises above this zone.
A push above $0.180 would confirm the trap is fully in place and force even deeper short liquidations, giving HBAR room for a stronger rebound. However, the trap only works if buyers hold key support levels.
If HBAR drops below $0.155, the divergence weakens and the downtrend regains control. In that case, the head and shoulders projection remains valid, opening the way toward the earlier bearish target near $0.113.
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Despite the XRP price dropping 7.8% over the past 30 days, these groups are accumulating, likely positioning for short-term bounces.
But this buying doesn’t seem strong enough to lift the price for one key reason.
The Hodler Net Position Change — a metric that tracks the amount of long-term investor supply entering or leaving wallets — indicates that long-term holders are selling aggressively. It showed heavy negative flow on November 3, when long-term wallets removed 102.50 million XRP. Instead of easing, outflows continued to rise.
By November 14, the number had jumped to 181.50 million XRP: a 77% increase in long-term selling pressure in less than two weeks.
This is the core reason the XRP price was unable to bounce: short-term buying is being overwhelmed by long-term exits.
XRP Price Feels the Pressure as Big Money Steps Back
On the chart, XRP is still struggling to break above $2.26, a strong 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level. The push higher is weakening because money inflows are fading rapidly.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which measures buying and selling pressure — has plunged since November 10. It now sits at –0.15, showing net outflows. CMF has also broken below a descending trendline, indicating that larger investors are withdrawing rather than adding. When CMF stays negative while breaking trend support, upside attempts usually fail.
If weakness continues, XRP risks losing $2.17, exposing a deeper move toward $2.06. A breakdown below $2.06 would invalidate any short-term bullish attempts.
The only way to regain momentum is a clean daily close above $2.38 — a level that has rejected the price multiple times this month. Clearing it could open a path toward $2.57 and flip the near-term structure bullish.
November has been rough for most of the market, and even several ‘made in USA’ coins have slipped significantly. The broader trend has been weak, with few assets holding their levels while traders wait for a clearer direction.
But as the market tries to stabilise, three of these US-based coins are showing early signs that they could rebound. One has a rare negative correlation with Bitcoin. Another is forming a clean reversal structure. And the third coin has drawn sudden whale activity. These factors make them worth watching this week.
Litecoin (LTC)
One of the first made in USA coins to watch this week is Litecoin (LTC). It has climbed a little over 8% in the past 30 days and about 7% in the past 24 hours, showing unexpected resilience during a rough November.
A big reason behind this strength is its negative correlation with Bitcoin. The Pearson correlation coefficient between LTC and BTC sits at –0.01 over the past month.
The Pearson coefficient measures how two assets move relative to each other; a negative reading means they move in different directions.
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Since Bitcoin has dropped more than 13.5% in the same period, Litecoin’s lack of correlation has actually helped it hold better than most top coins.
But correlation is not the only factor here. The chart is also forming a clean inverse head and shoulders pattern, with the price now hovering near $102.
If LTC manages a daily close above $119, it would complete the pattern and open the door to a move toward $135 or higher if broader conditions improve. This resistance level has capped upside attempts before, so a break would signal real momentum.
The Smart Money Index, which tracks how informed or early-moving traders position themselves, has also begun turning up since November 13.
That shift shows some early confidence returning as LTC pushes toward the pattern’s neckline. The combination of a curling Smart Money Index and price pressing into a breakout zone makes this week especially important for this setup.
If buyers fail to lift Litecoin above resistance, the first key support sits at $93. A drop below that level weakens the reversal structure, and falling under $79 would invalidate the pattern entirely.
Solana (SOL)
Among the ‘made in USA’ coins gaining attention this week, Solana (SOL) stands out for a different reason. It has had a rough month, dropping almost 27% over the past 30 days. Even so, the chart is starting to show hints of a possible short-term reversal that traders cannot ignore.
The signal comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures price momentum to show when an asset may be overbought or oversold.
Between November 4 and November 14, Solana’s price formed a lower low, while RSI formed a higher low. This formation is known as a bullish RSI divergence, and it often appears just before a trend attempts to turn, even if the reversal is brief.
If this divergence plays out, Solana’s immediate test is $162. It is a strong resistance level that has held since November 5 (breaking once in between).
Breaking above $162 would open the door toward $170. And if momentum strengthens, the price could push as high as $205 in the short term.
But the setup only holds if buyers defend $135. A drop below that support would weaken the structure and expose $126.
Chainlink (LINK)
The final pick on this week’s list is Chainlink (LINK), which has had a tough month of its own. It has declined by more than 20% over the past 30 days and has logged an additional 10%+ drop during the past week.
Even so, something unusual has appeared in its holder activity, making LINK a key token to watch this week as the market attempts to stabilise.
Despite the decline, whale accumulation has surged in the last seven days. Regular whale holdings have jumped 8.92%, while the top 100 addresses—larger “mega whales”—have increased their combined stash by 1.51%.
When whales buy into weakness instead of exiting, it often hints at early positioning for a potential reversal.
LINK Whales: Nansen
The chart explains why they may be stepping in. Between October 10 and November 14, LINK’s price made a lower low, while its RSI formed a higher low. This created a standard bullish divergence. This is the same momentum shift seen in Solana, and it often appears near the early stages of trend reversals.
For the setup to activate, LINK needs to reclaim $16.10, which requires roughly a 17% move from current levels. Clearing $16.10 opens the path toward $17.57.
If a daily close forms above that zone, LINK could stretch toward $21.64 or higher if broader market conditions improve.
If buyers fail to hold support, the key level to watch is $13.72. A daily candle close below it would break the current structure and likely invalidate the bullish reversal signal. The reversal, then, would have to wait longer.
The cryptocurrency market has spent most of November in the red, with the TOTAL index dropping approximately 20% month-over-month, before rebounding briefly at press time. That weakness has revived talk that a new bear market may already be starting.
Yet despite the fear, crypto whales are buying, which shows that the biggest wallets are positioning early instead of exiting. These wallets are quietly adding to three tokens that are not hype-driven but supported by real activity and fundamentals. Their 30-day accumulation suggests early preparation in case the broader market breaks lower.
Optimism (OP)
The first token that crypto whales are buying, while expecting a bear market, is Optimism (OP). The broader crypto market has dropped sharply over the past month, and this altcoin is down 13.3%, yet the biggest OP whales show firm conviction.
The top 100 Optimism addresses have increased their holdings by 3.15% over the last 30 days. At today’s OP price, that addition is worth roughly $54 million, showing that mega whales are not shaken by market weakness.
Optimism is one of the larger Layer-2 scaling projects, which could be why whales see long-term value even if market sentiment weakens.
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Their confidence lines up with the chart. On the two-day timeframe, OP’s price made a lower low between April 7 and November 3, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low.
The RSI measures momentum to show when an asset is overbought or oversold. This mismatch is a bullish RSI divergence, a signal that often appears when downside pressure is fading and a larger trend reversal may be forming.
For that reversal to activate, OP needs a clean break above $0.47, a level that has blocked every rally since mid-October. A breakout there opens the path to $0.61, and even $0.85 if sentiment improves.
On the downside, losing $0.38 puts $0.31 back in play. A breakdown below $0.31 exposes $0.23 and would invalidate the bullish setup whales seem to be positioning for.
Aster (ASTER)
The next token crypto whales are buying is Aster (ASTER). The pace here is significantly faster than what we saw in Optimism. Over the past 30 days, whales have expanded their holdings by 140%, pushing their total stash to 67.03 million ASTER.
At the current price of nearly $1.13, the total whale stack is worth approximately $75.7 million, with nearly $44 million coming from recent buying.
Smart money wallets have also moved in the same direction. Their holdings have jumped 678% over the past month.
The chart supports the actions these wallets are taking. The ASTER price has broken out of a falling channel on the 12-hour chart, indicating that the bearish trend is losing force. You can also see a clear standard bullish RSI divergence between October 17 and November 14.
The ASTER price made a lower low during that period, while the RSI made a higher low. That shift suggests momentum is turning, and price could follow if buyers stay active.
Short-term price action already reflects some of this. Aster is up almost 9% in the past 24 hours, but the bigger picture still leans toward a reversal rather than a simple bounce.
If this structure continues to hold, the next major hurdle sits at $1.29. This level blocked the rally attempt on November 2, so a clean close would confirm stronger upside.
If that break happens, Aster could stretch toward $1.59 next.
On the downside, $1.11 remains the first line of support. Losing $1.11 opens the path to $1.00, and if that fails, the deeper level at $0.81 would come into play.
Maple Finance (SYRUP)
The third token crypto whales are buying, expecting a bear market, is Maple Finance (SYRUP). Maple is a DeFi lending project that focuses on institutional credit. Its setup is bullish, but in a more measured way compared to Optimism and Aster.
Over the past 30 days, the top 100 mega-whale addresses have increased their holdings by 3.47%, raising their combined stash to 1.11 billion SYRUP.
At the current price, the total mega-whale stack is valued at approximately $499.5 million. Other holder groups are moving in the same direction.
Smart money wallets have added 1.86%, and regular whales have increased their holdings by 4.57%. When all these groups point in the same direction, it usually reflects rising confidence.
The neckline is currently positioned near $0.53. If the price moves above it, the breakout becomes valid, and the target would extend toward $0.65 or even higher.
There is also the On-Balance Volume (OBV) trend to consider. On-Balance Volume (OBV) is an indicator that tracks buying and selling pressure. Buying has appeared on OBV, but the indicator is still sitting under a falling trendline that began around October 14.
For a stronger trend reversal, whales likely want to see both: a break above the neckline at $0.53 and OBV breaking that trendline at the same time.
When price and OBV break together, rallies tend to hold better.
For now, the setup shows conviction, not confirmation. Yet, if buyers fail and the price slips, the invalidation sits at $0.38. A drop under $0.38 would weaken the pattern and could push SYRUP toward $0.28.
The Bitcoin price has dropped sharply this month. Since early November, it has fallen almost 15%, turning one of the strongest assets of the year into one of the weakest in the current pullback.
The drop has pushed the market into two camps again. Some believe this is the start of a deeper correction. Others believe the cycle is still unfolding, and this is merely an oversized dip. The next move depends on one level. If Bitcoin reclaims it, the rebound setup activates. If it fails there, the downside can widen fast.
Bitcoin Momentum Softens the Fall, but One Level Must Validate It
There are early signs that sellers may be losing strength.
The Relative Strength Index entered the oversold zone this week and has since reversed. That usually shows that selling pressure is easing.
A longer-term pattern also supports that view. Between April 30 and November 14, Bitcoin price formed a higher low, which means the broader trend is not fully broken. However, over the same period, the RSI also made a lower low. This is a hidden bullish divergence, a signal that often appears when a strong trend is attempting to resume after a significant correction.
For the RSI sign to play out, the Bitcoin price must cross above $100,300 ( a key support since late April), which might now act as a psychological resistance.
Bitcoin Sellers Might Be Getting Weaker: TradingView
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Supply data points to the same area on the chart. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows a large band of long-term Bitcoins created near the $100,900 zone.
When a cluster like this forms, it often becomes a significant decision point because a large portion of the supply is at the same cost basis. This cost-basis cluster falls near the resistance level highlighted on the RSI chart.
This is why the momentum story only matters if the BTC price closes back above that region. Without that close, the divergence and oversold readings remain unconfirmed.
A One-Year Low in NUPL Keeps the Bottoming Case Alive
The second argument for a rebound comes from the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric.
NUPL has now dropped to 0.40, its lowest reading in a year. This means the market is back to holding very thin unrealized profits, similar to early-cycle periods.
The last time NUPL hit a comparable low was in April. From there, Bitcoin climbed roughly 46% in less than two months. While this does not guarantee a repeat, it shows the market is entering a familiar pressure zone where rebounds often form if the price can stabilize.
But again, this indicator also depends on price reclaiming the same resistance band. Without that, the Bitcoin bottoming theory stays open but inactive.
Bitcoin Price Trades in a Falling Channel — With Two Critical Levels In Sight
Bitcoin remains within a falling channel, maintaining a bearish short-term trend.
The first step out of it is simple: regain $100,300. A daily close above $101,600 strengthens the move and flips the old support back into support.
If that happens, the next important level sits near $106,300. Breaking above it would push Bitcoin out of the falling channel. That would shift the trend from bearish to neutral and could turn it bullish if momentum improves.
The bust risk sits underneath. The lower band of the channel only has two clean touches, which makes it structurally weak. If Bitcoin loses $93,900–$92,800, the pattern opens deeper levels, and the “extended cycle” view becomes much harder to defend.
Right now, everything rests on one decision point. Above $100,300, the Bitcoin price stabilizes. Below $93,900, the slide can get much worse.
Dogecoin is down about 1% over the past week and dropped another 7.3% in the last 24 hours, making it one of the weakest large-cap coins during the latest market dip. The ETF noise did not help either. The countdown for the Bitwise spot Dogecoin ETF began on November 7, but DOGE has barely moved since then.
Whales have been buying too, yet the price keeps sliding. The charts show that one group can stop Dogecoin from breaking down, and they have not returned yet.
Whales Buy and ETF Buzz Builds — But Price Still Drops
Buying from whale wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE has continued since November 7. On that day, their holdings were 30.75 billion DOGE. Now they hold 34.11 billion DOGE. They added around 3.36 billion DOGE in one week. At today’s price, that represents more than $550 million in accumulated value.
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Even with this level of buying, DOGE is still down 1% over the same period. The ETF countdown also had no effect. Price stayed flat while institutional interest increased.
Looks like Bitwise is doing the 8(a) move for their spot Dogecoin ETF, which basically means they plan on going effective in 20 days barring an intervention. pic.twitter.com/y8jyxbYKXQ
When whales buy and the price does not respond, it usually means another force is stronger. That force is long-term holders.
This Hodler Group Has a History of Triggering Rallies and Bounces
The Hodler Net Position Change shows long-term wallets have been selling aggressively. This metric tracks whether long-term holders are adding (inflows) or removing (outflows) coins.
On November 9, long-term holders removed 62.3 million DOGE. As of November 13, that number has jumped to 148.3 million DOGE, leaving long-term wallets. That is a 138% increase in selling pressure in less than a week.
This same group triggered earlier price reactions:
• Between September 6–7, the metric flipped from outflows to inflows, and DOGE jumped about 33% shortly after.
• Between October 15–16, the same shift produced a smaller bounce of around 5% after a few days.
These moves show a clear pattern: price strength usually returns when long-term holders stop selling and begin adding again. Right now, the signal remains deep in outflows. Until it flips again, DOGE cannot build a real recovery.
Dogecoin Price Nears Breakdown Zone — One Level Holds the Entire Structure
DOGE now trades near $0.163 and sits near its largest cost-basis support cluster. The cost-basis heatmap shows the strongest concentration of holders between $0.164 and $0.165. As long as this zone holds, DOGE can stay stable and attempt a bounce or two.
Cost Basis Heatmap To Identify Supply Zones: Glassnode
If DOGE closes a daily candle below $0.164 (which is currently possible), it will slip under this cluster. With almost no heavy support levels beneath it, the price can drop quickly. The next key level is $0.158, only 2.6% lower. A breakdown there exposes $0.151 and deeper losses if the market stays weak.
On the upside, the DOGE price needs a move above $0.178 to show early strength. A stronger short-term reversal needs a clean break above $0.186. But neither move can hold unless long-term holders return and shift back to inflows.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR) is down almost 28% over the past month, while Bitcoin fell about 7.5% and Ethereum slipped 11.6% in the same window. But over the past six months, the BitMine price is still up 394%, far outperforming both assets.
Since BitMine mines Bitcoin and also holds Ethereum, it trades like a high-beta version of both. With Bitcoin showing early bottom signs and Ethereum stabilizing, BMNR now sits at a point where one breakout could restart its aggressive trend.
Price Strength Aligns With Volume And Trend Support
BMNR’s recent bounce from $35.73 to $40.60 was not a weak move or a dead cat bounce. The rise lined up with On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks whether volume is flowing in or out of an asset. OBV formed a higher low at the same time price formed a higher low between November 6 and November 11. That confirmed the rebound strength.
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OBV even printed a fresh higher high while price did not, which often shows hidden strength behind the candles. That’s the first bullish sign.
The trend indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), also supports the broader structure. Between August 1 and November 6, the BitMine price formed a higher low while the RSI formed a lower low, a hidden bullish divergence. That hints at seller exhaustion and a supposed local bottom, echoing Bitcoin’s bottom theory.
This continuation signal matches the six-month performance and shows the broader uptrend is still intact. Because BMNR reacts harder to Bitcoin and Ethereum, any upside in those assets tends to amplify its move.
One Roadblock Remains: Weak Money Flows Still Limit The Breakout
The missing piece comes from the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a tool that measures buying and selling pressure based on volume and price. CMF remains below zero and has been moving inside a downward trend. Every attempt CMF makes to break above that line tends to trigger a strong BMNR reaction.
The last attempt, between 6–7 November, helped BMNR jump 12%, showing how sensitive the stock is to money-flow strength.
Institutional accumulation is visible, with funds such as ARK Invest, BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Sumitomo Mitsui, and others holding millions of BMNR shares.
Institutional investors are accumulating $BMNR shares in the millions. Don’t sell them your shares!
But this has not yet been enough to push CMF above zero. Until CMF breaks its downward line and reclaims the zero level, money-flow pressure remains the only factor keeping BMNR from a cleaner breakout. Simply put, the BitMine price breakout hopes rest on the CMF breakout chances.
Key BitMine Price Levels Now Decide What Happens Next
BMNR now trades at a point where the upside and downside are clearly defined. The first major hurdle sits at $42.76. A close above this level opens the path toward $54.11, a strong barrier that has stopped most rally attempts since October 15. If BMNR can close above $54.11, the structure strengthens further toward $65.47, and even $71.79 if crypto momentum improves.
The downside remains simple. The entire setup fails only if BMNR breaks below $35.74. A clean move under this level exposes $30.29, which would invalidate the trend continuation signal from RSI and start a deeper downtrend.
For now, BMNR holds a bullish continuation structure, backed by OBV and RSI. But the breakout needs CMF to flip. Until the money-flow signal confirms, the chart stays strong but unconfirmed.
The question traders keep asking is simple: Will a crypto crash in 2026 happen, or has it already started? Every major downturn in this market has always followed the same pattern: Bitcoin completes its cycle top, sentiment peaks, and a major correction begins a few weeks later.
So, before we talk about the crash timeline, we need to establish whether Bitcoin has already topped. The usual peak window has passed, yet the key top signals have never been triggered. If the top is still ahead, the crash window moves into 2026. Here is how the data fits together.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Supply Clock Is the First Clue For the Crypto Crash
Bitcoin runs on a predictable schedule. Every 210,000 blocks, the block reward halves. This reduces new supply and normally pushes prices higher for twelve to eighteen months. Earlier cycles behaved the same way. The 2012 halving led to a top after about 13 months, the 2016 halving topped after around 17 months, and the 2020 halving peaked after about 18 months.
By this pattern, the April 20, 2024, halving pointed toward a peak between July and October 2025. Bitcoin even touched $126,000 in early October, and at the time, it looked like a textbook cycle top.
If this Bitcoin $BTC cycle mirrors 2015–2018 or 2018–2022, the top was on Oct 26, and a macro downtrend may have already begun. pic.twitter.com/7Vjm8p02sK
But one confirmation was missing. The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator, which has marked every major peak within one or two days, did not cross. Without that crossover, the October high becomes a mid-cycle high, not the final peak. That raises the question: what kept the cycle alive?
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Why This Cycle Is Running Longer Than Usual
Two forces extended this cycle beyond its normal timing.
First, ETF flows absorbed more supply than miners produced. Since early 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in more than $60 billion. Miners issue about 13,875 BTC per month, worth around $1.4 billion at current prices. During strong inflow periods, ETFs absorbed $4–5 billion per month, removing new supply faster than the network could create it.
Strong liquidity delays exhaustion and keeps risk assets supported. These two drivers pushed the cycle further than the usual halving window allows. With this backdrop, we move to the most accurate timing tool for final peaks: the Pi-Cycle Top Indicator.
Pi-Cycle: What It Is and What the Updated Numbers Tell Us
The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator compares two moving averages: the 111-day average and twice the 350-day average. When the 111-day line rises above the slower one, Bitcoin is usually one or two days from the final top. The signal has been precise in every major cycle.
To project when the lines will meet, we look at the slope of the 111-day average. Over recent months, it has risen between $200 and $400 per day. At $200 per day, the crossover would be about 462 days away, which points to February 2027. In case it moves at $320 per day, the “lines meet” sit around 289 days away, which points to August 2026. At $400 per day, it is roughly 231 days away, pointing to June 2026.
This places the realistic Pi-Cycle window between June and September 2026. Since Pi-Cycle has never missed a major peak, the October 2025 high is unlikely to be the final top. To understand how high Bitcoin can climb before the crypto crash comes knocking, we move to valuation — the MVRV Z-Score.
MVRV: What It Measures and When It Can Reach the Risk Zone
MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, which reflects the average price at which all coins last moved. High MVRV means holders have large unrealized profits, and past cycles topped when MVRV surged into extreme zones.
As of 12 November 2025:
Market value: $2.05 trillion
MVRV: 1.81
This implies a realized value near $1.13 trillion. Past cycle peaks typically formed when MVRV reached between 3.0 and 7.0. For this cycle, the warning zone is 3.0 to 3.5.
At MVRV 3.0, Bitcoin’s market value would be near $3.39 trillion, which equals roughly $174,000 per coin. At MVRV 3.5, the market value would be about $3.96 trillion, which equals roughly $203,000 per coin. These are the valuation ceilings where the market usually becomes unstable.
The Pi-Cycle top also falls in between these MVRV-led projections:
JUST IN: The Pi Cycle Top Indicator shows that #Bitcoin may top out above $194,500 this cycle 🚀
MVRV usually enters this zone about one month before the Pi-Cycle crossover. If the crossover happens in June 2026, MVRV overheats in May. In case it happens in August, risk builds in June or July. If it is in September, the pressure shifts into July or August. This places the MVRV risk window between May and August 2026, depending on how quickly the 111-day average of the Pi-Cycle climbs.
Global Liquidity Index: Why It Matters After Bitcoin MVRV
Bitcoin does not rely on internal metrics alone. Liquidity conditions determine how far the final surge can go. The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) tracks liquidity from major central banks and the broad money supply. Bitcoin reacts strongly to this index. In 2017 and 2021, GLI topped before Bitcoin, and Bitcoin peaked shortly afterward.
As of November 2025, GLI sits near 75 and has been rising by about four points per month. This pace comes from the index climbing roughly 18–20 points over the last five months. GLI peaks usually formed near 90, which places the next liquidity high between March and May 2026.
If the Federal Reserve turns softer, liquidity may stretch deeper into the year.
This creates a clear alignment. MVRV overheats in spring 2026, GLI peaks in spring 2026, and Pi-Cycle points to momentum exhaustion in summer 2026. The mismatch between liquidity and momentum sets up a classic bull-trap: liquidity peaks first, the market dips, and then Bitcoin pushes into a final, higher peak as Pi-Cycle completes.
The Convergence: The Full Picture
All major indicators converge within a single broad structure. The halving extension pushes the cycle top into mid-2026. MVRV shows overheating between May and August 2026. GLI suggests liquidity peaks between March and May 2026. Pi-Cycle points to a final top between June and September 2026.
This creates a March to August 2026 window where liquidity and momentum collide. The market may form two peaks: a liquidity-driven high in spring that becomes a bull trap, and a final Pi-Cycle peak in summer. A realistic top range is $200,000 to $250,000, which fits the valuation ceiling and the momentum timeline.
When Will the Crypto Crash in 2026 Begin?
In earlier cycles, Bitcoin fell one to four weeks after the final top. With the indicators aligning, the next major crypto crash in 2026 can begin any time from March to August, depending on which peak arrives first.
A crash, however, is only the first phase. A true bear market begins when lower highs and lower lows form for several consecutive weeks. In past cycles, this confirmation arrived six to ten weeks after the final top. Applying that pattern here, if Bitcoin peaks between June and September 2026, the confirmed bear market would begin between August and November 2026. This is when long-term downside pressure takes over, not just a sharp correction.
If liquidity peaks first, Bitcoin may fall 25–35%, reset leverage, and then attempt a final surge. If liquidity and momentum align later, the decline starts after the Pi-Cycle crossover.
Expected decline ranges:
A moderate drop of 50–60% pulls Bitcoin toward $90,000–$110,000
A deeper drop of 70% pushes it toward $70,000–$80,000
ETF custody may slow the fall, turning it into a longer correction instead of a sudden collapse. The key point stays the same: the $126,000 high in 2025 was not the cycle top. The real peak lies ahead in 2026, and the crash window opens soon after.
HBAR price is down almost 1% today and has traded flat over the past month. It is up 5.7% in the last seven days, but that bounce does not change the bigger picture.
The chart is close to forming a bearish structure that points to a deeper drop unless one level holds.
Bearish Pattern Forms as Two Risks Amplify
HBAR is close to completing a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart. If price slips below the neckline, the setup signals a potential 28% decline. This pattern is not confirmed yet, but it sits near completion — and the next moves depend heavily on volume behavior.
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That brings the focus to On-Balance Volume (OBV), a tool that tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of the asset. OBV has been rising slowly along an ascending trendline since 23 October, but this is not a strong signal.
Each time OBV drifts toward the lower edge of this trendline, HBAR price pulls back, showing that buyers are barely holding momentum. OBV is now back at the edge again, which increases the risk of a breakdown. If OBV slips under this line, the head-and-shoulders setup gains momentum.
HBAR Needs Volume Support To Avoid Crash: TradingView
A second risk comes from the leverage map. Over the past seven days on Bitget alone:
Longs outweigh shorts by almost 25%, which leaves the market exposed. If price reaches the neckline, led by weak OBV, a long squeeze could kick in, accelerating the downside.
Key Levels Now Decide Whether HBAR Price Drops or Escapes
HBAR now comes down to two paths:
Bearish path (likely if the neckline breaks): The neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern sits near $0.160. A clean drop below it completes the structure and exposes a 28% fall, with the HBAR price chart pointing toward $0.113 and even $0.100 if long liquidations cascade.
Bullish path (only if reclaimed): A recovery starts only if HBAR reclaims $0.199 with strength. A full invalidation happens at $0.219, which erases the pattern and shifts momentum back to buyers.
For any bullish scenario to hold, OBV must stay above its ascending trendline. If OBV fails, the neckline breaks faster — and the long squeeze risk increases sharply. For now, the HBAR price is heading toward a crash site, with one level ($0.160) still standing between the price and the fall.
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