XRP spot ETFs recorded $643.92 million in cumulative net inflows during their first month of trading, according to SoSoValue data. The products also reached $676.49 million in total net assets, capturing 0.50% of XRP’s market capitalization.
Daily inflows remained positive for most of the month. The strongest sessions included $243.05 million on November 14 and $164.04 million on November 24.
The ETFs generated a total value of $38.12 million in trading on November 26 alone. Trading volumes earlier in the month were higher, coinciding with large inflow spikes.
Meanwhile, other major asset managers are looking to enter the XRP ETF race. 21Shares is expected to launch its spot ETF on Monday as WisdomTree’s application remains under review.
Early Signs Point to Sustained Institutional Demand
ETF inflows increased on nine of the past ten sessions. The most recent daily total showed $21.81 millionentering XRP ETFs on November 26.
This inflow streak suggests institutions are still building exposure. It also reduces liquid supply on exchanges, as ETF custodians move XRP into regulated storage.
XRP ETFs Daily Inflows. Source: SoSoValue
Franklin Templeton disclosed 32.04 million XRP held in its ETF by November 25, signalling continued accumulation.
This steady inflow pattern in the first month is positive for new crypto ETFs and reflects improved regulatory clarity for XRP products.
Meanwhile, XRP wasn’t the only altcoin to receive an ETF greenlight over the past week. Dogecoin, HBAR, and Litecoin spot ETFs also started trading earlier this month.
However, these funds did not receive any notable interest from institutional investors. Bitwise and Grayscale’s DogeCoin ETF only attracted around $2 million in inflows in their first 48 hours of trading.
Bitcoin may be showing its first signs of demand recovery after a bruising month. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index (CBPI) — a measure tracking whether US investors pay more or less for BTC on Coinbase vs. global exchanges — turned positive today for the first time in weeks.
The shift comes just as silver surged to a new all-time high above $55/oz, signalling renewed appetite for hard-asset exposure across markets.
What the Coinbase Premium Turning Green Actually Means
The premium had spent almost the entire month of November in negative territory, reflecting softer US demand, ETF outflows, and weakened liquidity.
Now, the green print suggests that US spot buyers are finally paying a slight premium again, a sign that domestic demand is stabilising.
In simple terms, the Coinbase Premium Index compares BTC price on Coinbase (USD market) with its price on major global exchanges (USDT markets like Binance).
Positive premium → US investors buying aggressively
Negative premium → Lower US demand or stronger international flow
Neutral → Balanced global demand
Today’s shift into positive territory indicates that US spot demand has improved for the first time all month, even while broader sentiment still sits in extreme fear.
This matters because the US market has historically led BTC price inflection points — particularly during liquidity transitions or macro pivots.
Silver hitting an all-time high is notable on its own. But its timing alongside a newly positive Coinbase Premium adds an interesting behavioural layer.
Historically, BTC–Silver correlation is low and unstable. Long-term correlation usually sits near 0 to +0.3. It spikes only during major macro fear episodes, and collapses when crypto-specific factors dominate.
Right now, BTC and Silver are clearly decoupled. However, this decoupling highlights something important
When silver rallies strongly while Bitcoin stops falling, it often marks the end of fear-driven selling.
The weakening US labour market is emerging as a major risk variable for crypto heading into December and early 2026. Rising layoffs, slowing hiring, and deteriorating consumer confidence have intensified expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
The shift could influence Bitcoin and Ethereum more sharply than equities due to fragile liquidity conditions across digital assets.
Labour-Market Stress Increases Pressure on the Fed
Layoff announcements surged in October to their highest level since 2003. Several large employers cut jobs or froze hiring, reflecting tariff costs, AI restructuring, and post-shutdown uncertainty.
Consumer confidence also fell in November as job insecurity increased.
Alternative data shows US layoffs are surging:
Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge jumped +70,609 MoM in October, to 154,559, the highest in at least 2 years.
Monthly job cuts have now exceeded 100,000 for the 5th time this year.
Despite these pressures, weekly jobless claims remain low. Markets interpret this mixed picture as a sign that the economy is softening but not collapsing.
As a result, traders now expect a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting. Futures markets price a significant easing for 2026.
A December cut would mark a sharp pivot from the Fed’s earlier “higher for longer” stance. It would also signal that the central bank is responding to labour-market weakness before broader damage spreads.
Fed Rate Cut Probability For December. Source: CME FedWatch
Crypto Markets Are Highly Sensitive to Liquidity Signals
Tom Lee described the market as “limping” for six weeks due to damaged liquidity capacity.
These conditions increase the impact of macro shifts. When liquidity is thin, changes in interest-rate expectations typically move crypto faster than equities.
This dynamic was clear during November, when ETF outflows and selling pressure pushed Bitcoin down nearly 30% from its October peak.
On-chain metrics now show signs of stabilisation. The 90-day Taker CVD has moved from persistent selling to neutral, indicating seller exhaustion.
At the same time, users are borrowing against Bitcoin rather than selling it, which reduces immediate supply pressure but increases latent liquidation risk.
December Rally Is Possible, but Not Guaranteed
A December rate cut would reduce real yields and inject liquidity into risk assets. Bitcoin historically rallies during such conditions, especially after deep drawdowns.
Several metrics already point to improving momentum. Fear and Greed Index readings lifted from 11 to 22. Average crypto RSI rose toward 60 after touching oversold levels earlier in the month. MACD also turned positive.
🔴Record layoffs in the US
US companies cut 153,000 jobs in October, 175% more than a year ago. That makes October the worst in 20 years and the rate the highest for the fourth quarter since 2008🗓
However, ETF flow data remains uncertain. November saw heavy outflows, though recent days show tentative inflows.
If ETF demand returns, thin liquidity could amplify upside moves. If outflows resume, the market could revisit recent lows.
Macro signals will therefore dominate crypto into year-end. A dovish Fed stance may trigger a rally similar to 2023.
A hawkish tone could undermine the current recovery and reinforce the bearish trend seen in November.
Binance Bitcoin & Ethereum Exchange Inflow Value Is Structurally Elevated
“This often aligns with phases of rotation rather than pure accumulation. Large players move size onto the exchange, giving the market more room for distribution.” – By @TeddyVisionpic.twitter.com/wnpOWkyhPL
Even if crypto rallies in December, January remains uncertain. The combined October–November employment report arrives on December 16. The release may confirm deeper labour stress not yet captured in weekly data.
If layoffs accelerate into January, risk assets may weaken. Markets could interpret labour deterioration as a sign of recession.
In that scenario, rate cuts may not offset broad risk aversion. Bitcoin often reacts first in such conditions due to its liquidity profile.
Alternatively, if the report shows moderate softness with stable wage growth, markets may price a controlled slowdown.
This would support a continuation of any December rally into early 2026. In both cases, liquidity conditions will govern the scale of price swings.
With momentum improving and liquidity still thin, the market remains primed for a significant move. The direction will be set by how the Federal Reserve responds to growing labour-market pressure and how investors interpret the broader economic signal in the weeks ahead.
Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov’s rivalry has returned to the spotlight, this time dominating Crypto Twitter after McGregor accused Khabib’s new Telegram-based NFT collection of scamming fans.
The claim triggered a swift response from Khabib and a sharp intervention from on-chain investigator ZachXBT, who redirected attention toward McGregor’s own controversial token launch.
Crypto Feud Ignites After Khabib’s NFT Launch
Khabib promoted a new digital collectibles drop on Telegram this week, themed around the Dagestani papakha hat he wore during UFC walkouts.
The collection sold out quickly, generating about $4.4 million in a single day.
The Now-Deleted Tweet From Conor McGregor
The former UFC champion framed the NFTs as cultural digital gifts rather than speculative assets. He highlighted their link to Dagestani tradition and presented them as shareable items within Telegram’s ecosystem.
However, McGregor publicly rejected that narrative. He accused Khabib of running a “multi-million-dollar scam,” alleging that promotional posts were deleted after the sale.
His comments triggered immediate backlash from both MMA and crypto communities.
Can anybody find me a single person who bought the Khabib NFT who is claiming they have been scammed?
Can anyone show me a single shred of evidence of Khabib misrepresenting what he was selling?
The answer to both those questions are no. We get it you guys hate Muslims
McGregor’s post revived the bitter rivalry born from UFC 229, where Khabib defeated him in 2018. The pair have exchanged barbs for years, often referencing family, legacy, and national pride.
This time, McGregor suggested Khabib used his father’s legacy and Dagestani cultural symbols to mislead fans. His message framed the drop as a “cash grab” disguised as heritage.
The accusation spread quickly, drawing strong reactions across social media.
Khabib responded within hours. He called McGregor an “absolute liar” and accused him of trying to “darken my name” since the UFC 229 loss.
The feud escalated further when on-chain investigator ZachXBT entered the conversation. He reposted McGregor’s comments but flipped the accusation back onto him.
There is just no way good guy McGregor used his reputation, as well as Irish culture, to scam his fans and fire sell a bunch of digital tokens’s online and then delete all of the posts after they were sold, leaving his fans robbed of their money?
ZachXBT pointed to McGregor’s failed REAL token earlier this year. The coin raised far less than its public target, fell sharply in price, and lost community support within weeks.
McGregor then deleted most promotional posts, leaving the project abandoned and investors frustrated.
Crypto Twitter quickly framed this as hypocrisy. Many noted that McGregor’s own token showed more red flags than Khabib’s Telegram collectibles.
After the backlash intensified, McGregor deleted his “scam” posts about Khabib.
Despite the allegations, no reports indicate that buyers lost access to their NFTs. The items still function as digital gifts inside Telegram, with no broken utilities or frozen assets.
Khabib has not marketed the drop as a financial investment.
The crypto market is showing its first meaningful recovery after a harsh November sell-off, and several metrics now resemble the same conditions seen around Thanksgiving in both 2022 and 2023.
Bitcoin has reclaimed the $91,000 level, ETH is back above $3,000, and the wider market has returned to a cautious green. This bounce comes as traders enter a long US holiday weekend that has historically set the tone for December.
Market Indicators Turn Positive After Weeks of Fear
Fear and Greed Index data shows sentiment improving from 11 last week to 22 today, although it remains in “Extreme Fear.”
This shift aligns with a steady rise in average crypto RSI, which climbed from 38.5 seven days ago to 58.3 today. The reading signals growing strength after deep oversold conditions earlier in the month.
Average Crypto RSI On Thanksgiving 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap
Momentum also flipped. The normalized MACD across major assets has turned positive for the first time since early November.
About 82% of tracked cryptocurrencies now show positive trend momentum. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana appear in the bullish zone of CoinMarketCap’s MACD heatmap.
Price action supports this shift. Bitcoin is up 6% on the week. Ethereum has gained nearly 8%. Solana climbed almost 8% in the same period.
The market cap has grown to $3.21 trillion, rising 1.1% over the last 24 hours.
Average Crypto MACD On Thanksgiving 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap
A Familiar Post-Thanksgiving Setup Has Emerged
The current recovery mirrors a structure seen twice before. In both 2022 and 2023, the market entered Thanksgiving after a sharp drawdown and then stabilized into December.
In 2022, Bitcoin fell to near $16,000 following the FTX collapse. By Thanksgiving, selling pressure had exhausted, and the market traded sideways into Christmas.
It was a deep bear consolidation phase rather than a rally.
In 2023, Bitcoin entered Thanksgiving at $37,000 after a steep September-October correction. Strong ETF expectations and improving liquidity conditions pushed BTC to $43,600 by Christmas. It was a classic early-bull December rally.
Bitcoin Performance Between Thanksgiving and Christmas (2021–2024)
This year, the pattern again repeats one familiar element: the November crash came early, and by Thanksgiving, selling momentum had eased.
Bitcoin’s 90-day Taker CVD has shifted from persistent sell dominance to neutral, signalling that aggressive sellers have stepped back. Funding rates and leverage data support the same interpretation.
BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes the day +0.7% higher, adding +$2.5 trillion of market cap since last week’s low.
BitMine chairman Tom Lee described the market as “limping” after the October 10 liquidation shock.
He said market makers were forced to shrink their balance sheets, weakening market depth across exchanges. That fragility persisted through November.
However, Lee also argued that Bitcoin tends to make its biggest moves in short bursts when liquidity recovers. He expects a strong December rally if the Federal Reserve signals a softer stance.
On-chain data aligns with this view. Nexo collateral figures show users still prefer borrowing against Bitcoin rather than selling it.
BTC makes up more than 53% of all collateral on the platform. This behavior suppresses immediate sell pressure, helping stabilize spot markets. But it also adds hidden leverage that could amplify future volatility.
'@Nexo users aren’t selling their Bitcoin, they’re borrowing against it.
BTC now accounts for 54.3% of all collateral on the platform, holding a steady 53–57% range for months.
It confirms Bitcoin is the dominant asset users leverage when they need liquidity. pic.twitter.com/bhmL9UdUvO
Three factors now look similar to the post-Thanksgiving conditions of 2022 and 2023:
Seller exhaustion: Taker CVD shifting to neutral signals the end of forced selling for now.
Momentum recovery: MACD and RSI metrics have reversed sharply after bottoming earlier in November.
Liquidity stabilization: Market makers are still wounded, but volatility has cooled, and ETF outflows have slowed.
If this pattern continues, December could produce one of two outcomes based on the last two years:
A sideways consolidation like 2022 if liquidity remains thin.
A short, sharp rally like 2023 if macro conditions turn supportive.
The deciding factor will likely be the Federal Reserve’s tone in early December and the behavior of Bitcoin ETF flows. Thin liquidity means even moderate inflows could move prices quickly.
December May Deliver a Large Move in Either Direction
The market has entered a transition phase rather than a clear trend. Sentiment is still extremely fearful, but price and momentum indicators show recovery.
With selling pressure fading and technical momentum rising, the environment now resembles the same post-Thanksgiving setups that marked the last two end-of-year cycles.
Bitcoin dominance looks weak here.
ETH/BTC is holding above the 0.03-0.032 support zone.
Bitcoin may be approaching a decisive December as liquidity conditions tighten and on-chain metrics shift. BitMine Chairman Tom Lee says the market has been “limping” since the October 10 liquidation shock, but argues the setup now supports a major move before year-end.
Recent on-chain trends and exchange-collateral data point to similar pressure building beneath the surface.
Liquidity Damage Still Defines the Market
Lee told CNBC that the October event severely damaged market-maker balance sheets.
He described these firms as the “central banks” of crypto, responsible for depth, spreads, and inventory. When their balance sheets shrink, liquidity contracts for weeks.
Market makers withdrew risk capital after the liquidation wave erased roughly $19 billion of leveraged positions.
Order-book depth fell sharply across major exchanges, creating air pockets that amplified downside moves. Under such conditions, Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to react earlier to macro stress than equities.
“Bitcoin makes its best moves in 10 days every year, I think some of those days are still gonna happen before year end,” said Tom Lee.
On-Chain Metrics Show Sellers Losing Control
Bitcoin’s 90-day Spot Taker CVD has shifted from persistent sell dominance to a neutral stance. The indicator tracks aggressive market orders on spot exchanges.
Price remains well below October levels, but the absence of persistent taker-sell pressure signals improved stability.
The shift aligns with the broader leverage reset seen in futures markets, where funding rates have moved near zero.
Borrowing Trends Point to Strong Hands, but Fragile Leverage
CryptoQuant data shows Nexo users prefer borrowing against Bitcoin rather than selling it. BTC accounts for 53% to 57% of all collateral on the platform. That range has held for months despite the drawdown.
'@Nexo users aren’t selling their Bitcoin, they’re borrowing against it.
BTC now accounts for 54.3% of all collateral on the platform, holding a steady 53–57% range for months.
It confirms Bitcoin is the dominant asset users leverage when they need liquidity. pic.twitter.com/bhmL9UdUvO
This behavior reduces immediate selling pressure. It also confirms that long-term holders continue to treat Bitcoin as their primary liquidity source.
Yet it adds another layer of vulnerability. If Bitcoin drops further, collateralized positions face liquidation risk.
Combined with thin order books, any forced selling could produce outsized volatility. This dynamic reflects late-bear fragility rather than early-bull strength.
A Market Caught Between Exhaustion and Low Liquidity
Current market structure reflects a transition rather than a clean reversal. ETF outflows, damaged liquidity, and macro uncertainty keep pressure on prices.
However, on-chain selling has cooled, and structural holders continue to defend positions.
The result is an environment where small catalysts can produce large moves.
🚨TOM LEE: YEAR-END RALLY IS COMING
Despite a brutal six weeks, Tom Lee says a STRONG December rally is on deck, backed by by a dovish incoming Fed pivot. pic.twitter.com/G9afNmV0RR
A dovish Fed pivot would likely hit thin order books and accelerate a rebound. Another macro shock could trigger renewed deleveraging.
Lee’s view aligns with this setup. The market has stopped bleeding, but it remains fragile. Bitcoin has a history of delivering double-digit moves in compressed periods, especially after aggressive liquidations.
As December approaches, both liquidity conditions and on-chain data suggest the next large move is near.
The direction will depend on macro signals and ETF flows rather than sentiment alone.
The UK’s latest Budget leaves headline crypto tax rules unchanged but tightens the wider environment for traders.
Meanwhile, HMRC signals a major rethink on how it taxes DeFi lending and liquidity provision.
No New “Crypto Tax,” But Pressure Still Rises
Chancellor Rachel Reeves did not introduce any crypto-specific tax in the 2025 Budget. There is no new levy on trading, holding, or spending digital assets.
However, the Budget extends income-tax threshold freezes for three more years. As wages rise, more taxpayers drift into higher bands, including active crypto traders.
Summary of the key highlights from the UK budget 👇
-The UK is fck’d and has no money
-Labour have zero idea how to fix this and instead have focused on killing productivity and raising unemployment
The capital gains tax (CGT) allowance remains very low compared to historic levels. That means more crypto disposals trigger reportable gains, even for modest retail portfolios.
At the same time, the UK is pushing ahead with global data-sharing under new reporting standards.
Exchanges and platforms will supply more detailed customer information to HMRC from 2026.
No tax changes for crypto earnings announced in the UK budget. Seems like regulation there is likely to get stricter, but for now 🇬🇧 looks like a slightly more favorable jurisdiction for crypto than some other European countries (eg Spain & France)
Alongside the Budget, HMRC published a consultation outcome on DeFi lending and staking. It responds to strong criticism of its 2022 guidance on loans and liquidity pools.
Stakeholders told HMRC that current rules create disproportionate administrative burdens. They warned that treating every DeFi move as a disposal bears little relation to economic reality.
In response, HMRC has dropped its earlier idea of copying repo and stock lending rules. It now prefers a framework based on “no gain, no loss” (NGNL) for many DeFi flows.
HMRC has published its consultation outcome in the UK regarding the taxation of DeFi activities related to lending and staking.
A particularly interesting conclusion is that when users deposit assets into Aave, the deposit itself is not treated as a disposal for capital gains…
Crucially, the department accepts that automated market makers represent a major share of activity. It signals that any new rules should explicitly cover Uniswap-style multi-token liquidity pools.
Proposed NGNL Rules for DeFi Loans and Liquidity Pools
HMRC now outlines a potential NGNL approach for three areas. These are single-token arrangements, crypto borrowing, and automated market makers.
For single-token lending, entering and exiting a platform could be NGNL for CGT. The real gain or loss would arise only when the user finally sells the token.
For borrowing, posting collateral and taking out tokens would be ignored for CGT. Selling borrowed tokens and later buying them back to repay would crystallise the gain or loss.
For AMMs, HMRC proposes NGNL treatment when users deposit tokens for LP positions. Tax would then focus on differences in the number of tokens received when they exit.
If users receive more of a token than they originally deposited, the extra counts as a gain. But if they receive fewer, the shortfall is treated as a loss against their tax base.
HMRC stresses that this is still a “potential approach,” not enacted law. It will continue consultations before deciding whether to legislate.
How is the UK approaching crypto regulation to become a global leader? 🇬🇧
In one minute, Matt Osborne, Policy Director for the UK & Europe at Ripple, explains the plan: adopt proportionate, growth-friendly rules and allow overseas stablecoins, such as $RLUSD, to be used locally.… pic.twitter.com/lsFC1SgsRA
One of the most controversial ideas was to treat all DeFi rewards as income. Respondents warned that this would ignore capital versus revenue distinctions and create dry tax charges.
HMRC now says it is not actively pursuing an “all revenue” deeming rule. Rewards will continue to follow existing principles for now.
What This Means for UK Crypto Traders
For spot traders on centralised exchanges, the Budget brings no direct structural change. CGT still applies on each disposal, and income tax applies where trading amounts to a trade.
However, the combination of frozen thresholds and low CGT allowances increases effective tax pressure.
More active traders will breach reporting thresholds and face higher marginal rates on gains. HMRC expects more users to use portfolio tracking software to support their filings.
MicroStrategy’s market premium over its Bitcoin holdings has narrowed to near parity, raising questions about the future of Michael Saylor’s levered Bitcoin model.
The latest disclosures show the company holding 649,870 BTC at a cost of roughly $48.4 billion, yet its equity no longer trades at the high multiples that powered earlier expansion.
A Collapsing Premium and Rising Capital Pressures
The company’s mNAV fell below 1x in November. mNAV, or market-to-net-asset value, measures how much investors are willing to pay above (or below) the value of Strategy’s underlying Bitcoin.
It matters because Strategy’s entire accumulation strategy depends on issuing equity at a premium—allowing each new share sold to increase Bitcoin per share for existing holders.
MicroStrategy mNav As of November 25, 2025. Source: Saylor Tracker
This sharp mNAV reversal follows a broader market downturn. Bitcoin fell more than 30% from its October peak, dropping below $90,000.
Meanwhile, Strategy shares fell faster, reflecting concerns about the company’s reliance on capital markets and rising preferred stock costs.
Strategy’s capital structure has become a central issue. The firm holds only $54 million in cash and owes more than $640 million in annual preferred dividends.
The company’s software business remains cash-flow negative for 2025, widening the gap between obligations and internal liquidity.
As a result, Strategy has leaned on capital markets. It raised about $20 billion in the first nine months of 2025 across convertibles, preferred stock, and at-the-market equity.
That funding kept its Bitcoin accumulation going while servicing older instruments with high and rising coupons.
However, the mechanics that once made this model accretive have weakened. When Strategy traded at large premiums to net asset value, issuing shares increased Bitcoin per share for holders.
Pressure increased as the cost of capital climbed. The company’s STRC preferred shares raised their dividend from 9% in July to 10.5% in November to maintain par value.
New preferred offerings carry coupons above 10%, with penalty rates up to 18% if unpaid. These terms increase the annual burden and reinforce investor concerns about sustainability.
Market Liquidity, MSCI Risks, and the Future of the Premium
Market confidence further deteriorated after the October 10 crash. Bitcoin dropped about 17% as leveraged liquidations exceeded $19 billion. Order-book depth collapsed across exchanges, highlighting the fragility of liquidity during stress.
For a holder of more than 3% of Bitcoin’s supply, this episode amplified fears about potential forced selling.
The index-inclusion threat compounds the problem. MSCI is consulting on excluding companies with more than 50% of assets in digital currencies from its indices.
THE $48 BILLION MATH ERROR
Strategy Inc. just disclosed something extraordinary. They own 649,870 Bitcoin. That is 3.26 percent of every Bitcoin that will ever exist. Total cost: $48.37 billion.
They also disclosed the numbers that prove this cannot survive the next 90 days.… pic.twitter.com/SIEI6njNyB
Strategy sits near 77% Bitcoin by asset share. JPMorgan estimates such an exclusion could trigger around $2.8 billion in passive outflows, with up to $8.8 billion possible if other index providers follow.
If indices proceed with exclusion in February 2026, MicroStrategy’s mNAV could compress further. Lower premiums reduce the viability of equity issuance, which Strategy has used to manage its obligations and continue accumulation.
A persistent discount would complicate refinancing and weaken the company’s ability to defend its capital structure.
very important week coming up for $MSTR (and markets overall). @MicroStrategy is currently trading below NAV (ie its market cap is lower than the value of its $BTC holdings).
no treasury company has ever traded below its NAV for an extended period of time.
Strategy maintains that its balance sheet offers long-term strength. It recently claimed “71 years” of dividend coverage based on the current market value of its Bitcoin.
However, that calculation assumes frictionless sales, no price impact, and no tax obligations. The October crash demonstrated how quickly liquidity can evaporate under stress.
Will MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Premium Return?
The narrowing mNAV reflects a market reassessment of leverage, liquidity, and risk. Investors appear less willing to pay a premium for exposure they can now access through spot Bitcoin ETFs without corporate debt and preferred stock layers.
The premium may return if Bitcoin rallies sharply or if index providers soften their stance. Yet the structural pressures remain.
Rising dividend obligations, negative operating cash flow, and a weakening equity premium leave Strategy more exposed than before.
MSTR Vs Bitcoin Performance YTD. Source: Saylor Tracker
Until those pressures ease, the market’s message is clear. Investors are no longer paying extra for the Strategy model, and the days of easy accretive issuance appear to be over.
Whether the premium returns now depends on Bitcoin strength, index decisions, and Strategy’s ability to navigate its most difficult period yet.
Monad’s MON token continues to rally after its long-anticipated mainnet launch, defying the steep post-airdrop declines that dominated 2025. The token has climbed more than 70% above its Coinbase sale price while the broader crypto market trades under heavy pressure.
Data from on-chain activity, exchange flows, and token distribution offer a clear explanation for the outperformance — and reveal how long the rally may realistically last.
This strength stands out in a market where Bitcoin has dropped below $90,000 and total crypto market capitalization has fallen by more than a trillion dollars since October.
Airdrop and Token Sale Created a Stable Holder Base
Monad distributed roughly 4.73 billion MON in airdrops to 289,000 eligible accounts, with 3.33 billion ultimately claimed. The design targeted DeFi power-users, NFT traders, testnet contributors, and DAO participants rather than quest farmers.
The Coinbase token sale, which raised $269 million from about 85,820 participants, added a second cohort of committed holders. These buyers anchored around the $0.025 sale price and proved less eager to dump at launch.
Because insiders remain locked, early sellers were mostly airdrop recipients. This dynamic helped prevent the heavy cascades that crushed many 2025 airdrops.
Heavy Exchange Coverage Shielded MON From Volatility
MON was listed across major exchanges on day one, including Coinbase, Upbit, Bithumb, Kraken, Bybit, Bitget, Crypto.com, and MEXC. Derivatives opened on multiple venues, giving traders hedging options.
Deep order books absorbed airdrop selling. Market makers tightened spreads, and cross-venue liquidity reduced fragmentation. Traders could short, long, or hedge without flooding spot markets.
This broad coverage sharply contrasts with earlier L1 launches that relied on thin liquidity pools and fragmented markets, often triggering immediate 50–80% crashes.
Huge respect to @monad for not paying the Binance cartel listing fee.
Probably not a coincidence that the price is going up.
No serious project should waste millions of dollars for nothing (study Binance TGEs this cycle).
Monad’s first 24 hours delivered rare on-chain traction for a new L1. Nansen recorded:
3.7 million transactions
153,000 active addresses
18,000 contract deployments
These figures exceed what many blockchains achieve in their first year. They show early real usage from bots, arbitrageurs, developers, and liquidity programs.
Traders rotated into MON due to its relative strength. New tokens with credible metrics often attract momentum capital when major assets struggle.
This reflexive flow — strength attracting more capital — added fuel to the rally.
Arthur Hayes Goes All-In
Arthur Hayes weighed in with a sarcastic comment that captured the market mood.
Just what this bull market needs another low float , high FDV useless L1. But obvi I aped. It’s a bull market bitches!$MON to $10 pic.twitter.com/UMSDWWmp5a
He highlighted MON’s low float and high FDV (fully diluted valuation). With only around 10% of supply circulating and FDV near $3–4 billion, MON fits the low-float pattern that dominates early-stage price action.
Yet Hayes admitted he bought anyway. His remark reflects how traders treat early L1 tokens: fundamentally risky, but attractive for short-term speculation.
How Long Can the Monad Rally Last?
The current data and patterns point to three time horizons that shape MON’s outlook.
Short Term: Rally Can Sustain
Monad has absorbed its largest early unlocks. Liquidity remains deep, and on-chain usage is rising. Incentive programs are launching, and trading flows remain strong.
Under these conditions, MON can maintain upward momentum for days or weeks.
Medium Term: Unlock Pressure Builds
Over the next several months, the circulating supply will rise as vesting tranches unlock. Even disciplined insider distribution adds structural sell pressure.
Activity may normalize after early incentives fade. If TVL flattens or starts slipping, the narrative could shift.
Longer Term: Fundamental Execution Matters
MON’s FDV places high expectations on the chain. Sustained growth in TVL, real applications, and developer traction will determine long-run resilience.
Without continued expansion, valuation compression becomes likely as supply expands.
In 2017 $ADA went from $3B → $30B in less than a month$MON just launched at $3B
Monad’s rally stems from a rare combination of strong distribution design, deep exchange liquidity, high early usage, and standout performance during a weak market.
This alignment makes MON one of the few 2025 airdrop tokens to defy the typical post-launch collapse.
The rally can continue in the short term as long as on-chain demand holds and liquidity remains supportive. However, the token’s high FDV and long vesting schedule introduce clear medium-term risks.
For now, MON remains a high-momentum asset driven by early fundamentals and speculative flows.
However, the durability of that momentum will depend on whether Monad converts its powerful first 48 hours into sustained ecosystem growth.
Between October and November 2025, crypto’s total market cap dropped about 30%, falling from a record $4.2 trillion to under $3 trillion. Bitcoin shed nearly 32% in value, while Ethereum lost over 40%.
However, these numbers don’t match the scale of 2022.
After FTX’s implosion, the market plunged 73% from its 2021 highs. Bitcoin bottomed out at $15,500, losing over three-quarters of its value. Ethereum fell more than 80% to below $900.
Liquidations and Trading Behavior
Liquidations in 2025 surpassed previous records. In October, over $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions were wiped out in a single day. That’s nearly ten times more than the worst day during the 2022 crash.
Yet, in 2022, traders also faced systemic shocks. The failure of FTX, Celsius, Voyager, and 3AC triggered a cascade of margin calls and frozen funds.
Although 2025 saw more liquidations, the impact was largely confined to price volatility and didn’t trigger platform-wide insolvencies.
165,000 Bitcoin taken off Coinbase over the weekend! Cause TBD. But the last comparable plunge was just after FTX collapsed. Bitcoin was $16K pic.twitter.com/W3DQWDkzht
The FTX collapse shattered trust across the industry. Core Scientific filed for bankruptcy. Crypto lenders vanished. Public companies like MicroStrategy and Coinbase lost over 80% of their stock value.
By contrast, the latest crypto crash has seen no major bankruptcies among listed firms. ETFs did suffer record outflows—over $3.7 billion since October. But they remained functional.
Both periods triggered extreme fear. In November 2025, sentiment indices dropped to their lowest levels in a year. However, investors weren’t blindsided.
In 2022, the FTX collapse came as a shock. Billions in customer assets vanished. The resulting fear was deeper and more corrosive. Institutional investors froze activity. Regulators launched global crackdowns.
Meanwhile, this month, investors pulled back—but stayed engaged. ETF outflows were orderly. Hedge funds hedged rather than fled. Regulatory conditions, while uncertain, were not crisis-driven.
The Crypto Spring Is Compressed. Window Is Closing…
Yes, the cycle has been difficult…
Even people who've been through multiple cycles start questioning everything.
FTX Collapse Remains the King of All Crypto Bear Markets
The 2025 crypto crash is sharp, but contained. It erased over a trillion dollars in value and triggered record liquidations. However, the market structure held.
The 2022 collapse was deeper, longer, and systemically damaging. It wiped out fragile firms, froze customer assets, and nearly broke institutional trust.
While painful, November 2025 is not worse than the FTX-era collapse. It’s a high-stakes correction—not a foundational crisis.
Monad’s MON token surged more than 35% within 24 hours of launch, defying both a cold airdrop market and a deep November sell-off across digital assets.
MON traded around $0.035 on Monday, rising from an early range near $0.025 as liquidity spread across major exchanges.
Monad Shines Bright Amid the Bear Market
The move stands out against a market where most airdrops have struggled. Recent industry research shows nearly 90% of airdropped tokens decline within days, driven by thin liquidity, high FDVs, and aggressive selling from recipients.
MON instead climbed strongly despite more than 10.8 billion tokens entering circulation from airdrop claims and a public token sale.
The token launched on November 24 alongside Monad’s mainnet. Around 76,000 wallets claimed 3.33 billion MON from a 4.73 billion-token airdrop, while 7.5 billion more unlocked from Coinbase’s token sale.
The airdrop alone was valued near $105 million at early trading prices.
MON’s performance also contrasts with the broader market downturn. Bitcoin fell below $90,000 last week after long-term holders sold more than 815,000 BTC over 30 days.
Total crypto market value has dropped by over $1 trillion since October, and sentiment sits in extreme fear territory.
However, MON’s trading demand remained resilient. Its price recovered from initial selling pressure and climbed steadily through the afternoon session.
Most large exchanges listed the token at launch, including Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, KuCoin, Bitget, Gate.io, and Upbit, supporting deeper liquidity.
Analysts attribute the move to pent-up interest in Monad’s high-performance L1 design and a launch structure that avoided the steep inflation seen in other airdrops this year.
People really gravedancing on Monad right before a 4 hour 50% up candle at the most obvious support on planet earth
The project delivered one of 2025’s largest distributions but kept real circulating supply focused on early users and public sale participants rather than speculative farmers.
MON’s rally comes as a rare outlier in November’s bear cycle. Its early strength now positions the token as one of the few airdrops this year to post immediate gains instead of sharp declines.
Coinbase said on November 24 that it will open spot trading for Fluid (FLUID) and World Mobile Token (WMTX) on November 25, 2025.
The announcement arrives during one of the harshest drawdowns of 2025, and both tokens saw modest but noticeable intraday recoveries after weeks of pressure.
Coinbase Listing Gives Some Optimism To These Altcoins
Against that backdrop, even small upside reactions stand out.
Both FLUID and WMTX posted mild rebounds on November 24 following Coinbase’s announcement. The price movements are far from breakout rallies, but enough to break multi-day downtrends visible on their 24-hour charts.
Spot trading for Fluid (FLUID) and World Mobile Token (WMTX) will go live on 25 November 2025. The opening of our FLUID-USD and WMTX-USD trading pairs will begin on or after 9AM PT, if liquidity conditions are met, in regions where trading is supported. pic.twitter.com/niDFzmMxay
Meanwhile, World Mobile Token (WMTX) powers the World Mobile Chain, a decentralised telecom infrastructure project built around physical wireless nodes. The project sits in the DePIN sector, which blends blockchain with real-world infrastructure.
WMTX has traded heavily throughout November as risk-off sentiment hit mid-cap altcoins. Its circulating supply is far larger than FLUID’s—around 794 million—making price moves more muted during low-liquidity periods.
The Coinbase listing announcement helped push WMTX off its $0.096 base and toward $0.102. Even though the uptick is small, it breaks a flat multi-day pattern and introduces early signs of renewed buyer interest.
A Small But Notable Signal In a Bearish Month
Coinbase listings no longer trigger explosive price spikes in most cases, especially during a macro and sentiment-driven downturn. But November has been defined by heavy outflows, declining liquidity, and accelerated long-term holder selling across the market.
In that context, the reaction from FLUID and WMTX—two tokens tied to infrastructure-driven DeFi and DePIN narratives—offers a rare positive signal.
Both projects remain actively engaged, and traders appear to be monitoring how the listings may impact liquidity once US markets gain direct spot access.
Bitcoin has dropped below $100,000 for the second time in a week, losing 12% in a month. The overall crypto market has lost over $700 billion in the past month, as the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to ‘extreme fear’.
So, do all of these market indicators signal a bear market? Let’s analyze the technical and historical data.
Sentiment Signals Are at Bear-Market Levels
The Fear & Greed Index at 10 reflects extreme fear comparable to early 2022 and June 2022, both confirmed bear-market phases.
Yesterday: 16
Last week: 20
Last month: 28
The trend shows accelerating fear, not stabilizing sentiment. Bear runs usually begin with this kind of persistent fear compression.
However, sentiment alone does not confirm a bear market — it only signals capitulation or exhaustion.
Bitcoin Has Broken Its Most Important Bull-Market Support
The 365-day moving average is the long-term structural pivot.
Current situation:
The 365-day MA is near $102,000.
Bitcoin is trading below it.
The breakdown mirrors December 2021, when price lost the same MA and the bear market started.
Historically:
Cycle
MA Lost?
Outcome
2018
Yes
Full bear market
2021
Yes
Full bear market
2025
Yes (now)
Bear-phase risk rising
Failing to reclaim this level quickly often confirms a cycle regime shift. This is one of the strongest technical arguments for a bear-market transition.
Bitcoin "Death Cross" Just Flashed!
The Death Cross (An ironically BULLISH indicator) has just triggered, EXACTLY timed with BTC tagging the lower boundary of the megaphone pattern it's in.
This resembles May–July 2021, August 2023, and August 2024. Each was a mid-cycle correction, not an end-of-cycle bear. When RSI stays deeply oversold for weeks, bearish momentum confirms.
Right now, RSI shows stress but not yet trend reversal.
MACD Shows Strong Divergence Across the Market
The average normalized MACD is currently 0.02. This indicates weak bullish momentum returning. Also, 58% of the market assets have positive momentum.
Bitcoin, however, sits deep in the negative zone while altcoins are mixed.
Crypto Market Average MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). Source: CoinMarketCap
When BTC has negative MACD but the market still has 50%+ positive momentum, the market is in a transition phase rather than a full bear trend.
In full bear markets, 90%+ of assets show negative MACD simultaneously. Right now, that is not the case.
So, Is This a Bear Market?
The crypto market is not in a confirmed bear market — it is in a mid-cycle breakdown with a rising probability of becoming a bear market if two conditions are met.
These are the three conditions that would confirm a bear run:
Bitcoin remains below the 365-day MA for 4–6 weeks. This triggered every bear market in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
Long-term holders continue heavy distribution. If LTH (long-term holder) selling exceeds 1M BTC over 60 days, the cycle top is in.
MACD flips fully negative across the entire market. We are not there yet.
TBH this is the easiest bear market I've ever seen.
Seems like most of you have forgotten what 2022 was like. Luna collapsing, then 3AC, then FTX, then Genesis, BlockFi, Axie, NFTs–pretty much everything felt like a house of cards.
Overall, crypto is not yet in a bear market, but the current breakdown puts the market in a high-risk zone where a bear market could form if Bitcoin fails to reclaim long-term support soon.
Aster moved to calm its community after a miscommunication on CoinMarketCap (CMC) led users to believe the project had quietly changed its token unlock schedule.
The team said the tokenomics remain unchanged and blamed an update on CMC for creating the confusion.
ASTER Token Unlock Confusion
The clarification came hours after Aster community members noticed major upcoming unlocks listed on CMC — including one for December 2025 and two massive releases scheduled for 2035.
This contradicts earlier statements from the exchange about delaying 2025 unlocks to mid-2026.
A recent update to the tokenomics of ASTER on CoinMarketCap (CMC) has caused confusion within the community. This confusion stemmed from a miscommunication, and we sincerely apologize for the inconvenience caused. We want to clarify that the ASTER tokenomics remain unchanged.…
The uncertainty started when updated CMC data showed 200 million ASTER scheduled to unlock on December 15, 2025, followed by 3.86 billion ASTER and 1.6 billion ASTER unlocks in 2035.
Those figures implied that 75% of the token supply was still locked, with 24% currently circulating.
Aster said the CMC update was meant to correct circulating supply information and clarify how unused ecosystem tokens were being treated.
Original Post That Caused Confusion About Aster Tokenomics. Source: X/AB Kuai.Dong
The team said the tokens that unlock monthly under the ecosystem allocation have never entered circulation and have remained untouched in a locked address since TGE.
To avoid further confusion, Aster will now transfer these unlocked-but-unused tokens to a public, dedicated unlock address to separate them from operational wallets.
The team said it has no plans to spend from this address.
Why This Matters for ASTER Holders
The episode highlights a recurring issue in crypto markets. Inconsistent or unclear circulating supply data can influence price action, investor expectations, and perceived dilution risk.
Aster’s circulating supply sits around 2.017 billion ASTER, with 6.06 billion still locked. Market cap is roughly $2.28 billion, while the fully diluted value exceeds $9 billion.
A sudden interpretation that large unlocks were imminent may have fueled speculation about dilution, especially as the project recently saw heavy trading volume and rising volatility.
Despite the confusion, ASTER traded higher on the day, moving around $1.14, up about 8% in 24 hours. The price has fluctuated between $1.02–$1.15, stabilizing after an early-morning sell-off.
Bitcoin fell to $94,000 on Friday, driving concerns of further liquidation and heading towards a yearly low of $76,000. BTC faces growing downside pressure after dropping under its 365-day moving average, a level that has defined the current bull cycle’s support.
The breakdown has revived concerns of a larger correction, especially as key on-chain cost-basis levels show early signs of stress.
Will Bitcoin Price Drop Below $90,000?
The 365-day moving average, now near $102,000, has acted as Bitcoin’s primary structural floor since late 2023.
Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim it this week echoes the pattern seen in December 2021, when repeated rejections at this level marked the beginning of the 2022 bear market.
However, the broader market context suggests a mid-cycle reset rather than a full macro top. Liquidity conditions remain unstable, ETF flows turned negative, and long-term holders have been distributing at the fastest pace since early 2024.
Even so, the loss of the 365-day average remains significant.
Good day to remember this. Once Bitcoin breaks below the 365-day MA, its pretty difficult to recover. Judging by the data of how previous bear markets started, I would say we are in one.
It would take a complete turnaround of demand, sentiment, capital flows to revert the… https://t.co/IsUlwqAbq0
Historically, remaining below this line for several weekly closes triggers deeper retracements. A sustained breakdown increases the probability of a move toward sub-$90,000.
On-chain data reinforces this risk. The realized price for Bitcoin holders who entered between 6 and 12 months ago is near $94,600.
This group accumulated heavily during the ETF-driven rally, and their cost basis often acts as a first capitulation zone in bull markets.
On Friday, Bitcoin briefly traded below this threshold, pushing many of these holders into unrealized losses.
Those who entered Bitcoin 6 to 12 months ago have a cost basis near 94K.
Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level. I would rather wait than jump to conclusions. pic.twitter.com/i9a5M0xnMW
Similar breaks occurred in both 2017–2018 and 2021–2022. Each period saw prolonged declines after price slipped below the 6–12 month cost-basis band.
This trend suggests rising pressure on recent buyers and increases the chance of a deeper reset.
Long-range cycle data provides additional context. Bitcoin’s bull cycles show recurring mid-cycle corrections of 25% to 40%.
Using the 2025 peak near $125,000, a typical pullback would place Bitcoin between $75,000 and $93,000. These drawdown levels align closely with current technical and on-chain floors.
I see stories about "old whales dumping bitcoin", but the data does not support those stories.
Almost 7 million BTC transacted onchain in 2025. Most BTC came from 2024 transactions. One big 84k BTC 2011 whale. And some 2017-2023 sellers. But that's it, business as usual. pic.twitter.com/w2aHjJ3XmD
As a result, analysts see three major zones forming.
Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch
The first support sits at $92,000 to $95,000, matching the 6–12 month cost basis and recent ETF inflow levels. This area is likely the first reaction point.
However, a stronger correction could push Bitcoin into the $85,000 to $90,000 band, which aligns with a standard 25%–30% mid-cycle decline.
The bearish scenario extends deeper. If ETF outflows accelerate and macro conditions worsen, Bitcoin could retest the $75,000 to $82,000 zone.
This would represent a 35%–40% drawdown from the cycle high and match previous mid-cycle resets. Drops below $70,000 remain unlikely without a major liquidity shock.
Despite the recent weakness, Bitcoin has not shown a blow-off top or a structural exhaustion pattern. This suggests that current moves form part of a broader consolidation within the bull market, not the start of a new multi-year downtrend.
For now, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the 365-day moving average will determine the depth of the correction.
A quick recovery would ease selling pressure and reduce the likelihood of a move under $90,000.
Continued rejection, however, raises the probability of a deeper test of the mid-cycle support zones.
Tether is in advanced talks to invest around €1 billion in German humanoid-robotics firm Neura Robotics, according to recent reports.
The move signals one of the clearest shifts yet in Tether’s strategy as the world’s largest stablecoin issuer pushes beyond USDT and into high-technology sectors.
Tethers Is Betting Big On AI Robotics
The proposed investment would value Neura between €8 billion and €10 billion.
However, the scale of the talks underscores a broader pattern. Tether has spent the past year diversifying into AI infrastructure, robotics, and real-world technology.
Tether @Tether_to in talks to lead €1 Billion Funding Round for Neura Robotics
Tether Holdings, the issuer of the world's largest stablecoin $USDT, is reportedly in advanced discussions to lead a €1 billion ($1.07 billion) investment round in Neura Robotics, a German startup…
Earlier this year, the company secured access to a 20,000-GPU compute network to build its AI research environment. It also explored major exposure to Neura’s cognitive-robotics platform, which includes humanoid systems designed for industrial and commercial work.
At the same time, Tether has expanded through financial-market partnerships. Its “Hadron by Tether” platform signed agreements with KraneShares and Bitfinex Securities to accelerate tokenized securities adoption.
The company also deepened its presence in public-sector digital infrastructure through a collaboration with Da Nang city in Vietnam.
That financial capacity appears to be funding its push into AI, robotics, and digital-governance technology.
Yet questions remain. Neither Tether nor Neura has confirmed the final size or structure of the investment.
Analysts note that mass-producing humanoid robots carries technical and supply-chain risk, and the projected valuation depends on Neura scaling production quickly.
Still, Tether’s direction is clear. The firm is moving from a stablecoin-only business to a broader technology investor, tying its future to sectors far beyond digital assets.
Two opposing crypto strategies went head-to-head during EMCD’s latest Crypto Battle, co-hosted with BeInCrypto, where investors debated how to survive and grow in a volatile market.
The live online event, held on October 30, featured Michael Wrubel, a crypto analyst and YouTuber known for high-risk altcoin strategies, and Jan Warmus, EMCD’s Director of Partnerships, representing a more conservative and mining-focused perspective.
Warmus called it “a sensible, beginner-friendly allocation,” stressing that staying with well-known assets and avoiding coins one doesn’t understand prevents major losses.
Wrubel countered that while Bitcoin and Ethereum are essential, “the big returns come from lower-cap projects” capable of outsized growth.
The Allure and Danger of Memecoins
When asked how to identify the next 10x token, both speakers agreed such predictions are nearly impossible. Warmus compared the odds to gambling: “Recent analysis showed only 0.12% of new coins reach that level—worse odds than roulette.”
Wrubel focused on sentiment, advising traders to “watch the community on X and Telegram” as hype and engagement often signal potential upside.
Bitcoin Mining Profitability
A story about an early miner selling thousands of BTC for a MacBook set the stage for discussion on Bitcoin’s long-term growth.
Wrubel projected Bitcoin could “surpass $1 million” as institutions adopt it as digital gold. Warmus agreed, linking Bitcoin’s rise to expanding institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
However, he warned that mining success now “depends on efficiency, energy costs, and scale,” describing modern mining as “an industrial, not a hobbyist business.”
For companies with $100,000 to allocate, Wrubel advised a simple 80/20 Bitcoin-Ethereum split. Warmus recommended a diversified model:
70–80% in Bitcoin, ideally with some funds in mining infrastructure;
15–20% in Ethereum;
Up to 10% for selective altcoins or tokenized assets.
He emphasized compliance and custody as top priorities for institutional entrants.
For small retail investors, Warmus highlighted Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) as the most reliable entry strategy. “If you invested $100 monthly since 2020, it would now be worth about $26,500,” he said. Wrubel, meanwhile, argued that those seeking “life-changing returns” must accept higher risk with small-cap assets.
Banking, Yield, and Risk
The discussion closed with questions on crypto’s equivalent to bank deposits. Wrubel noted staking as an alternative that provides yield. Warmus cautioned users to remember that “there’s no government guarantee” and that yield always depends on the platform’s risk management.
Closing and Audience Interaction
The session ended with a Q&A and a prize draw for five Tangem wallet winners. Viewers engaged actively in chat, sharing stories of gains and losses.
The contrast between Wrubel’s aggressive investing style and Warmus’s disciplined approach underscored the debate’s central theme: crypto success lies in balancing risk, knowledge, and patience.
Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the second time in a week on Thursday, signalling renewed fragility in a market dominated by forced liquidations and heavy selling from long-term holders.
At the time of reporting, BTC was trading near $98,400. The drop erased a brief recovery above six figures and pushed sentiment toward caution across major trading desks.
Bitcoin Price Fails to Maintain the $100,000 Psychological Level
The decline triggered a new wave of liquidations. Data shows over $683 million wiped out in the past 24 hours, including $556 million in long positions. Traders were heavily positioned for upside.
Also, pressure intensified from long-term holders (LTH), one of Bitcoin’s most stable cohorts.
According to CryptoQuant data, addresses holding BTC for more than six months sold approximately 815,000 BTC in the last 30 days. This is the highest level of selling since January 2024.
The chart indicates a sustained distribution across cohorts ranging from 6 months to 7+ years, resulting in a consistent supply overhang at current prices.
This selling wave resembles prior cycle peaks where long-term holders locked in profits after multi-month rallies. The pattern is visible on the charts.
Each spike in LTH spending corresponds with local tops and periods of prolonged consolidation. The current climb to 815,000 BTC spent mirrors the heavy distribution seen at the 2021 and early-2024 highs.
Market analysts note that long-term holder behaviour matters more than short-term trading noise. When seasoned wallets send coins back into circulation, liquidity deepens, but price support weakens.
It's another one of those days:
All asset classes are trading sharply lower today.
And, attempted intra-day relief rallies are being sold into new lows; a textbook "emotional" correction.
This has become an increasingly common occurrence in 2025, particularly amid record…
Combined with the largest liquidation cluster of the week, the market absorbed both forced selling and voluntary selling at once—magnifying the drawdown.
The next key test sits at the $98,000–$100,000 range, where buyers must step in to prevent a deeper move toward mid-cycle support levels.
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