HBAR price is down about 6% in the past 24 hours, underperforming an already weak crypto market. Even with this pressure, the chart is flashing a rare mix of three early rebound clues that most mid-caps are not showing right now.
If the broader market steadies, HBAR could be one of the first to move, especially if it protects a key support level discussed later.
Accumulation Signs Build Beneath the Decline
HBAR has moved inside a broad falling wedge since early September. This pattern often turns bullish when sellers lose control near the lower boundary, and that shift first appeared around November 21.
The first clue comes from the changing volume behavior. HBAR’s activity follows a Wyckoff-style color pattern: red shows sellers in control, yellow shows sellers gaining control, blue marks buyers gaining control, and green shows buyers fully in control.
Since HBAR peaked at $0.155 on November 23 and fell nearly 15%, the bars have shifted from heavy red to a blend of yellow and blue. That blend is a classic sign of seller exhaustion and early tug-of-war. The last time this mix showed up — between October 15 and October 28 — HBAR climbed 41% right after.
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A second clue appears in the MFI (Money Flow Index), which tracks buying and selling pressure using both price and volume. Between November 23 and December 1, the HBAR price kept making lower highs while MFI made higher highs. That divergence shows dips are being quietly bought. A similar divergence formed between October 6 and October 24 and led to a 33% jump once it completed.
The third clue comes from steady spot ETF demand. The Canary HBAR Spot ETF has posted positive weekly inflows in four of the last five weeks, with more than $80 million in cumulative inflows. Inflows are smaller than late October, but they remain positive even as price falls — meaning broader demand has not vanished.
Together, these three clues — shifting volume control, dip-buying pressure, and ongoing ETF inflows — show early accumulation forming beneath the surface.
Key HBAR Price Levels Decide Whether the Rebound Can Hold
The wedge’s lower boundary near $0.122 is the most important support for HBAR right now. Holding that area keeps the rebound case alive. Losing it exposes the next major zone near $0.079, which would flip the structure from “early accumulation” to a deeper slide.
For strength, HBAR needs to reclaim $0.140 first, a 5% rebound from the current level. That would show that buyers are finally overpowering the sell-side pressure. If $0.140 breaks, the next major level sits at $0.155. Clearing $0.155 opens the path toward $0.169 and even $0.182 if the crypto market improves.
In today’s markets, uncertainty has become the new normal, putting pressure on traders and investors alike. Changing tariffs, shifting monetary policies, and persistent tensions are weighing on sentiment and dampening global growth. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expects global growth to decline to 2.3%, just 0.2 percentage points above the threshold for a global recession.
But beneath it all lies another enduring threat: inflation. Even as numbers improve, its effects continue to ripple through asset prices, investor behavior, and risk perceptions. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global inflation is projected to fall to 4.2%, down from 5.9% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2023. On paper, this is progress, but it’s nowhere near the levels it considers healthy.
For traders and investors, this means that while inflation may no longer dominate headlines, its presence will still define the landscape. Still shaping where capital flows, how portfolios are hedged, and which assets emerge as safe havens. And this is why many are now asking: Could crypto be emerging as the next inflation hedge, challenging the long-standing dominance of traditional safe havens?
Cryptos as Gold’s Challenger
Safe havens tend to perform reasonably well during recessions, and for decades, gold has been the default refuge, an anchor during economic storms. In recent years, bitcoin has emerged as its digital challenger, often described as “digital gold.” But that comparison might not be entirely grounded in reality. Let’s take a closer look.
On the surface, they seem alike, sharing certain traits: they are both scarce, speculative, and finite. Both are used in a limited capacity for transactions, influenced by demand, and dependent on third parties such as miners for supply. Yet, their behavior tells a different story.
Although cryptocurrencies tend to behave similarly to traditional assets during inflation, i.e., lose value, they behave differently when policy uncertainty is added to the equation. During past geopolitical instability, we have seen the market treat certain cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin, as safe havens. The reason behind this phenomenon is that cryptocurrencies are decoupled from government policy and currency manipulation, giving them an independent appeal during institutional mistrust.
This isn’t theoretical. Bitcoin rallied before and after the 2016 US elections, during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and at other global events when confidence in traditional systems wavered. The question then isn’t whether bitcoin can move during uncertain times, but whether it can protect.
Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven?
A study by Sangyup Choi and Junhyeok Shin of Yonsei University’s School of Economics found that while bitcoin tends to depreciate during periods of financial uncertainty, it rises in value during times of policy uncertainty, precisely because it operates independently of governments and central banks.
We are now in such a period, one defined by both geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies. In these conditions, investors often diversify across assets that aren’t directly tied to fiscal or monetary decisions. This is where bitcoin’s appeal lies: it represents freedom from institutional control, a self-contained system that functions outside the traditional policy loop.
Another study highlights the fact that it may be a strong hedge for oil, the US dollar, EU indices, and ETFs. It also suggests that the correlation between gold, bitcoin, and US indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 may indicate that investors are also starting to view the cryptocurrency as a safe haven.
Still, there is an important caveat. Cryptocurrencies remain inherently volatile, and bitcoin’s short history means its safe-haven status is conditional, not guaranteed. Gold, by contrast, has earned its reputation over centuries. For risk-averse traders, gold still offers stability, while bitcoin, with its asymmetric upside, may serve as a diversification tool rather than a replacement.
Hedging With Exness
A hedge is only as effective as the conditions that power it. In periods of volatility or uncertainty, when CFD traders turn to instruments like gold or bitcoin CFDs to manage exposure, execution quality becomes critical. In those decisive moments, it’s the trading conditions that determine whether your strategy holds or breaks.
Exness provides CFD traders better-than-market conditions, meaning spreads, execution, and withdrawals that outperform what’s typically available to market participants. Its proprietary engine ensures precise execution, even during high-impact news,1 when traders need to rely on it the most for their hedge.
Price transparency and stable spreads also play a critical role. With its stable spreads on BTCUSD, which are four times lower than the industry average,2and the best spreads on XAUUSD,3Exness ensures that both digital and traditional hedges, like gold and bitcoin, work as intended.
The experience extends beyond the time markets are open. Exness has been offering the fastest withdrawals since 2009, and today, 98% of withdrawals are processed automatically.4
In essence, hedging with Exness means hedging with more control. CFD traders can execute, manage, and withdraw with the same confidence that drives their strategies, no matter how turbulent the markets become.
1Precise execution claims refer to average slippage rates on pending orders based on data collected between September 2024 and July 2025 for XAUUSD, USOIL, and BTC CFDs on the Exness Standard account vs similar accounts offered by four other brokers. Delays and slippage may occur. No guarantee of execution speed or precision is provided.
2 4x more stable spreads claim refers to maximum BTCUSD CFDs spreads on the Exness Pro account, based on data collected from 12 to 25 May 2025, compared with average maximum BTCUSD CFDs spreads across the tightest commission-free accounts offered by eight other brokers.
3Best spread claims refer to the lowest maximum spreads and the tightest average spreads on the Exness Pro account, for XAUUSD and USOIL, based on data collected from 12-25 May 2025, when compared to the corresponding spreads across commission-free accounts of other brokers.
4At Exness, over 98% of withdrawals are processed automatically. Processing times may vary depending on the chosen payment method.
Crypto markets sold off sharply after Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surged to its highest level since 2008. The move triggered a wave of global de-risking and one of the largest liquidation events in weeks.
The move erased billions of dollars in digital-asset value, highlighting just how exposed crypto remains to macroeconomic liquidity shifts far outside its own ecosystem.
Japan’s Yield Spike: The Yen Carry Trade Unwinds and Crypto Feels It First
The total crypto market cap declined by approximately 5% over the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices falling by more than 5%.
The prevailing sentiment is that the yield breakout is more than just a technical move. It signals that the decades-long yen carry trade may finally be unwinding.
For nearly 30 years, Japan’s near-zero interest rates allowed investors to borrow cheaply in yen and deploy capital into higher-yielding assets abroad. Such avenues include:
US Treasuries
European bonds
Risk assets like equities and crypto.
Rising yields in Japan threaten to reverse this flow, pulling capital back home and tightening liquidity globally.
“For 30 years, the Yen Carry Trade subsidized global arrogance — zero rates… free leverage… fake growth… entire economies built on borrowed time and borrowed money. Now Japan has reversed the switch. Rates climbed. Yen strengthened. And the world’s favourite ATM just turned into a debt-collector,” wrote data scientist ViPiN on X (Twitter).
When Japanese yields rise, global liquidity contracts, leading to a repricing across the market. This likely explains why Silver (XAG) has not yet experienced its Supercycle, and Bitcoin is dealing with late-cycle volatility.
“Japan is draining liquidity, Bitcoin is absorbing the shock, and Silver is preparing for the repricing of a lifetime,” stated one analyst in a post.
Crypto’s Sell-Off Isn’t Local, It’s a Macro Liquidity Crunch
Shanaka Anslem, an ideologist and popular user on X (Twitter), described the JGB breakout as “the chart that should terrify every portfolio manager.
THE CHART THAT SHOULD TERRIFY EVERY PORTFOLIO MANAGER ON EARTH
Japan’s 10 Year Government Bond Yield just hit 1.84%.
The strategist, who has reportedly witnessed infrastructural breakdowns, currency shocks, and state-level crises, cited:
Inflation above 3%,
Higher wage growth, and
A Bank of Japan that is increasingly losing its ability to suppress yields.
These forces are pushing Japan into a structural shift away from the ultra-loose monetary regime that defined global markets for decades.
“When Japan raises rates, it sucks liquidity out of the global system. The “fuel” that powered the stock market rally is being drained. We can expect volatility in high-growth stocks as this “cheap money” era ends,” added another investor in a post.
Meanwhile, China, historically one of the largest foreign buyers of US Treasuries, has slowed its accumulation. With Japan now under pressure to repatriate capital, two of America’s most important external funding sources are simultaneously stepping back.
“When the world’s creditor nations stop funding the world’s debtor nations at artificially suppressed rates, the entire post-2008 financial architecture must reprice. Every duration bet. Every leveraged position. Every assumption about perpetually falling rates. This is not a Japanese story. This is the global story. The 30-year bond bull market ended. Most just have not realized it yet,” Shanaka articulated.
Crypto, as one of the highest-beta corners of global markets, tends to react first when liquidity tightens. The scale of the liquidations suggests that leveraged traders were caught offside by the bond volatility, forcing rapid position unwinds across major assets.
Rather than a crypto-specific meltdown, the sell-off reflects a broad revaluation of duration, leverage, and risk as global bond markets reset.
Therefore, traders should probably watch Japan’s bond market as closely as they watch Bitcoin charts. If JGB yields continue to rise, it could tighten global liquidity through the end of the year.
While the broader crypto market flashed red in early December, a Solana-based meme coin called PIPPIN delivered a remarkable countertrend rally.
Its rapid price surge enabled several traders to achieve massive short-term profits. However, it also raised concerns about a potential sharp correction that could hurt latecomers.
How One Trader Made More Than $1.3 Million With PIPPIN
Unlike many other meme tokens, the project’s developers promised to release open-source tools with potential applications for PIPPIN, including interactive tutoring systems, AI marketing assistants, and personality-driven DevOps bots capable of writing and deploying code.
Despite its high-risk meme-coin nature, PIPPIN has become one of the most talked-about names in Solana’s meme wave at the end of 2025.
According to data from BeInCrypto, the token has experienced a surge of over 400% in the past month and is currently trading at $0.139. When comparing the low in November ($0.02) to the recent high ($0.20), the token has increased tenfold. Additionally, the daily trading volume has surpassed $120 million, a significant rise from under $10 million in November.
This rally has put one early buyer on enormous unrealized profits. According to market-tracking account LookOnChain, a wallet named BxNU5a was created about a month ago. The wallet spent $179,800 to acquire 8.2 million PIPPIN tokens. The current value of this stash is approximately $1.51 million, resulting in an unrealized gain of more than $1.35 million.
A month ago, someone created a new wallet, BxNU5a, and spent $179.8K to buy 8.2M $pippin($1.51M now).
Nansen also reported strong whale accumulation and a sharp increase in the number of active wallets, signaling a wave of new investors pouring money into the token.
“PIPPIN didn’t just ‘go up,’ it detonated. 437% in 7 days with $43.9M volume is a different tempo. Whales added +6.6M, fresh wallets put in +11M, and exchanges saw sharp outflows,” — Nansen reported.
These bullish signals have fueled hopes that PIPPIN could become the next standout in the Solana meme-coin ecosystem. Recent reports also highlight potential reasons why the meme-coin wave may return in December.
Warning Signs Emerge
Despite the explosive rally, significant risks have also surfaced. The first warning concerns PIPPIN’s short positions suffering heavy liquidations.
Data from Coinglass shows a series of short positions being wiped out during the last week of November. The heaviest liquidation day occurred on December 1.
Coinglass reported more than $15 million in liquidations on December 1 alone, with over $11 million coming from short positions.
On-chain signals are also flashing caution. According to Solscan, even as the price soared, real on-chain trading volume decreased by 45% compared to the previous week.
Traders are executing fewer transactions on-chain and shifting more activity to exchanges. This divergence could signal a sharp decline if increasing amounts of PIPPIN are sold on centralized platforms.
Well-known analyst Altcoin Sherpa compared PIPPIN to other meme tokens, such as AVA, GRIFFAIN, and ACT, predicting that prices may drop significantly soon.
“With PIPPIN moving, some of these other AI shitters are also going. AVA, GRIFFAIN, ACT. Hard to honestly trade them though, and these are probably just 24-hour pump-and-dumps for most of them. Unlikely to be a sustained pump,” — Altcoin Sherpa said.
PIPPIN’s market cap previously reached over $300 million late last year before collapsing to $8 million, which adds to investor skepticism about another potential steep dump.
Another analyst described PIPPIN’s rally as a familiar pattern: a small group accumulates heavily and withholds supply, creating buy pressure that pushes the price up. Short positions are then liquidated, the price drops afterward, and the cycle repeats.
Zcash is down about 21% in the past 24 hours and has now extended its seven-day loss to almost 33%. The monthly trend has also flipped negative. Even then, the broader three-month Zcash price gain still sits above 780%, which shows how strong the previous rally was.
Right now, Zcash is trading inside a bullish pattern that has guided every major move since September. The price has just touched the lower trend line of this channel. This is the last strong support that keeps the long-term uptrend alive. Two internal metrics hint that the selling pressure may be fading, but ZEC must protect that critical line for any recovery.
Momentum Weakens, but Pressure May Be Easing
The first clue comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI measures momentum on a 0–100 scale. Between September 27 and December 1, the price formed a higher low, while RSI formed a lower low. This is hidden bullish divergence and often appears near exhaustion points.
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The second clue comes from CMF (Chaikin Money Flow), which tracks whether big-money flows are entering or exiting the market.
CMF had been falling since November 6, the same period when the price corrected sharply. CMF slipped below zero on November 24 for the first time since late October, and that drop aligned with heavier selling. But CMF has now curled up and is heading back toward the zero line.
That matters because CMF is also showing a small divergence. Between November 27 and December 1, the price made a lower high while CMF made a higher high. When CMF is turning up while the price falls, it suggests large buyers may be preparing to re-enter. If CMF breaks above zero and moves past the descending trend line drawn across recent lower highs, ZEC could see momentum shift back in its favor.
Both signals only matter if the lower channel support of the channel continues to hold.
Correlation Shift and Key Zcash Price Levels That Decide the Trend
Zcash’s earlier rally was helped by its weak or slightly negative correlation with Bitcoin. Over the past year, the BTC–ZEC correlation sits near –0.05. This helped ZEC outperform during Bitcoin weakness.
But in the past seven days, the correlation has turned mildly positive at 0.48. It is still weaker than most major coins, meaning ZEC can still move differently, but it also means Bitcoin’s drop has pulled ZEC down harder in the short term.
Because of this shift, the price levels now matter even more:
ZEC is sitting just above $348, the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A daily close below $348 breaks the trend line and opens a move toward $309. If $309 fails, the next major support sits at $230, where buyers previously stepped in strongly.
For the Zcash price to regain strength, it must reclaim $592, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci level. That move would require a rebound of about 63.9% from current levels — large, but not unusual for ZEC given its past swings.
If CMF keeps turning up and the long-term negative BTC correlation plays out, Zcash could still protect the channel and extend the broader uptrend. But losing $348 flips the entire structure and ends the bullish case at least for now.
The first week of December 2025 features critical US economic events that will influence monetary policy expectations and Bitcoin’s direction, as traders prepare for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) actions.
Bitcoin investors face a pivotal week as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on December 1, coinciding with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT). With odds of a rate cut in December now at 86%, significant volatility is expected across risk assets.
Powell’s Speech and End of QT
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to address markets on Monday, December 1, at 8:00 pm ET. This date marks not just his highly anticipated speech but also the official end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program, an important policy shift announced by the FOMC in October.
“The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1,” read an excerpt in the Fed’s October 29 statement.
This decision reflects the presence of ample reserves in the banking system. Powell’s remarks come amid speculation about possible changes in Fed leadership, introducing another layer of market uncertainty.
🚨 BREAKING:
JEROME POWELL WILL GIVE A SPEECH ON DECEMBER 1ST AND QT ENDS THE SAME DAY.
RATE CUT ODDS FOR DECEMBER HAVE NOW SURGED TO 86%.
Because Powell’s speech takes place just before the Fed’s blackout period ahead of the December policy meeting, it is likely to have outsized importance.
Any hints regarding future rates could trigger immediate market reactions. Ending quantitative tightening signals a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy, possibly increasing dollar liquidity.
This speculation may boost volatility, as markets weigh the prospect of a new chair who could push for faster rate cuts.
Probabilities of Fed Chair Jerome Powell Replacement Prospects. Source: Kalshi
ADP Employment
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP), the largest payroll processor in the US, is set to release the ADP Employment Change report for November, which measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US, at 8:15 am ET on Wednesday.
The prior November report showed just 42,000 jobs added, according to MarketWatch’s economic calendar. New data will provide key insights into the health of the labor market ahead of the official government jobs numbers.
US Economic Events This Week. Source: Market Watch
A strong employment figure could reduce chances of a rate cut and put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. In contrast, weak job growth would reinforce the case for Federal Reserve easing, which typically benefits crypto markets.
Initial jobless claims arrive on Thursday, December 4, at 8:30 am ET. As a weekly measure of layoffs, this report provides a real-time view of labor market conditions. It determines the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS REPORT 📉
This week’s initial claims held steady near 220K, close to recent multi-year lows — signaling continued labor market resilience.
Key highlights:
🔴Initial claims remain far below recession-trigger levels, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative.… pic.twitter.com/ggNRWeDo4E
Rising claims may indicate economic weakness and support calls for easier monetary policy, while falling claims would suggest resilience and less urgency for rate cuts.
Historically, Bitcoin has been highly sensitive to employment releases since they shape Fed monetary outlooks and liquidity.
Traders often position ahead of these reports, generating increased volatility in both spot and derivatives markets.
PCE Inflation Data
Friday, December 5, brings the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index at 8:30 am ET, the Fed’s preferred inflation benchmark.
This report is pivotal, as it tracks progress toward the central bank’s 2% goal. It will be released alongside personal income and spending data, providing a comprehensive view of consumer health.
Investors will focus on both headline and core PCE numbers. A softer reading could confirm the disinflation trend, solidifying expectations for a December rate cut.
Data from the CME Fed Watch Tool shows that interest bettors wager an 87.6% chance of a rate cut in the December 10 meeting, against a 12.4% chance that policymakers will hold steady.
Conversely, persistent inflation would prompt caution from the Fed, possibly disappointing markets looking for aggressive easing.
Consumer sentiment is reported at 10:00 am ET, with the prior value at 51.0 on the economic calendar. This data gauges household views on the economy and spending. Weakening sentiment can signal slowing demand and further support the case for easier monetary policy, which often lifts Bitcoin.
These four key economic releases in a single week create a high-stakes environment for digital asset markets. Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets means macroeconomic news is likely to drive market direction more than crypto-specific events.
As the first week of December commences, the interplay between jobs data, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve’s stance will determine Bitcoin’s momentum and response to changing monetary policy signals.
Ethereum price has dropped more than 6% in the past 24 hours and is now down about 27% over the last 30 days. A breakdown from a major continuation pattern has opened the door to a much deeper decline. At the same time, an on-chain signal is flashing a possible 28% downside window that aligns with what could become Ethereum’s next cycle bottom if conditions worsen.
Together, these signals show that ETH may not be done correcting yet.
One Long-Term Metric Shows Room to Fall?
Ethereum recently broke down from a clean bear flag. The move began after ETH failed at $2,990 and slipped out of the rising channel it had been trading within for a week. The earlier sell-off created the “pole,” a drop of 28.39%, and the breakdown activates a measured target around $2,140, which sits almost exactly 28% below the breakdown level.
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To see if this target makes sense, we compare it with long-term holder NUPL. Long-term holder NUPL measures how much profit long-term holders are sitting on.
NUPL has been trending down since August 22, suggesting long-term holders are reducing unrealized profits and softening their conviction. The latest short-term low was 0.36 on Nov 21, but the six-month low sits at 0.28, recorded on June 22, which is a difference of roughly 22%.
Back on June 22, when NUPL hit 0.28, ETH traded near $2,230, and the market reversed sharply. From there, Ethereum rallied all the way to $4,820, a gain of 116% from that bottom.
Today, if NUPL were to retest that 0.28 cycle-low band again, the implied price drawdown from ETH’s recent local high near $2,990 would be in the same 20–25% range, which aligns exactly with the 28% bear-flag target at $2,140.
This is the cleanest overlap in the entire analysis: Both the price pattern and the long-term holder metric point to the same lower zone.
Ethereum Price Sits on Its Strongest Cost-Basis Wall
The next step is to see whether the Ethereum price chart supports the same conclusion. The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows where large clusters of ETH were recently accumulated. The heaviest band sits between $2,801 and $2,823, with 3,591,002 ETH bought in that zone. This is the strongest support Ethereum has right now.
ETH has already broken below the $2,840 price level, increasing pressure on this cost-basis wall. If the ETH price cannot reclaim $2,840 quickly and close above $2,990 again, sellers remain in full control.
If weakness continues, the next levels on the trend-based extension appear one after another. The first point is $2,690, which sits about 4.5% below the current price. If that fails, the decline can extend to $2,560 (a further 4.6% drop), $2,440 (another 4.8%), and $2,260, which is just 2% above the June NUPL-bottom price of $2,230.
Below all of these sits $2,140, the full breakdown target, about 28% below the breakdown zone and fully aligned with the flag projection.
If ETH falls through $2,266, the bear-flag target becomes the most realistic scenario.
There is still an invalidation path, but it requires strength at several layers. ETH must regain $2,840, then break above $2,990, and then secure a close above $3,090. The entire bearish pattern loses meaning only if ETH pushes through $3,240, which would be a roughly 15% move up from current levels.
For now, ETH trades beneath its strongest cost-basis wall, long-term holders are still reducing unrealized profit, and the continuation structure points clearly lower. If these conditions hold, the $2,260–$2,140 region becomes the most probable area where Ethereum could form its next cycle bottom.
The end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1, 2024, marks a pivotal shift for crypto markets.
Despite this milestone, experts note that visible impact could take time. Balance sheet expansion may be delayed until early 2026 due to treasury settlement lags, mirroring past cycles.
Historical Patterns Link Fed Policy to Altcoin Performance
The Fed’s monetary policy increasingly influences the crypto market. Historically, when the Fed was not engaged in QT, altcoins showed notable strength against Bitcoin, sparking multi-year rallies and altering market dynamics.
Hyland’s research spotlights the periods 2014-2017 and 2019-2022. During these periods, the absence of QT allowed altcoins to sustain uptrends for 42 and 29 months, respectively.
“Altcoins historically outperform BTC when QT is not active. Alts have seen a 42-month & 29-month uptrend whilst QT was not active during 2014-2017 & 2019-2022. Based on the very strong correlation to the Fed’s balance sheet, it’s highly favorable Alts outperform BTC for many years going forward,” wrote Hyland.
The OTHERS.D/BTC.D ratio, which compares altcoin market dominance to Bitcoin, climbed as monetary conditions improved, encouraging greater risk appetite.
OTHERS.D/BTC.D ratio demonstrates historical altcoin outperformance during non-QT periods. Source: Matthew Hyland on X
The Fed’s approach closely mirrors these shifts. From 2014 to 2017, a supportive stance led to strong altcoin growth. Likewise, after QT ended in August 2019, another altcoin rally unfolded and lasted through 2022. These cycles suggest Fed liquidity policy is a core influence on crypto risk assets.
Hyland emphasized that the current balance sheet, around $6.55 trillion and stabilizing post-QT, supports optimism for multi-year altcoin outperformance relative to Bitcoin.
Critical 0.25 Level May Signal Altcoin Season Launch
Technical analysis shows the ALT/BTC pair historically bottomed at 0.25 after QT ended. This threshold is seen as a key marker signaling the potential start of an altcoin rally and may again indicate the next phase of upward momentum.
ALT/BTC pair historically bottoms at 0.25 when QT concludes, signaling potential rally starts. Source: TradingView
The ALT/BTC ratio is now at 0.36, which is above this vital support level. If this measure approaches 0.25, it could signal the typical capitulation that precedes lasting altcoin strength.
The 0.25 line holds strong technical and psychological significance, often representing where altcoins regain upward momentum against Bitcoin.
Capital often rotates into alternative cryptocurrencies when Bitcoin dominance declines. According to August 2025 Coinbase research, Bitcoin’s dominance dropped from 65% in May to about 59% by August.
This trend points to early capital flows favoring altcoins, a hallmark of “altcoin season.”
Balance Sheet Expansion Delays Could Postpone Market Impact
While QT has officially ended, immediate effects are unlikely. The experience from 2019 shows that settlement lags can postpone observable balance sheet expansion and, by extension, crypto market reactions.
Benjamin Cowen highlighted operational factors. In 2019, although QT ended in August, balance sheet growth lagged as treasury maturities settled later that month. Policy changes can thus take time to reach financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
“Just because QT ends December 1 does not mean the balance sheet immediately starts going up. It might take until early 2026 to notice that,” wrote Cowen.
These operational realities matter for market timing. Mechanisms such as treasury settlements and reserve management can delay balance sheet expansion by months, causing uncertain conditions for traders awaiting clear policy impact. Volatility may persist during this window.
Fed research underlines these complexities. Shifts in the Treasury General Account and settlement schedules may skew short-term balance sheet readings.
The experience of August 2019 shows that patience is needed before definitive market patterns emerge, likely in 2025 or 2026.
Despite near-term uncertainties, the outlook for altcoin markets remains constructive. Once Fed-driven liquidity expansion becomes evident, historical trends indicate altcoins often benefit.
Japan’s 2-year government bond yield surged to 1% on December 1, its highest since 2008. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a possible interest rate hike at the December 18-19 monetary policy meeting, sending ripples through global financial markets.
This development could mark the end of three decades of ultra-low interest rates that fueled the yen carry trade. As borrowing costs rise and the yen strengthens, global markets now brace for significant deleveraging across asset classes.
Bond Yields Climb as Rate Hike Expectations Grow
Japan’s bond market moved sharply following Ueda’s recent statements. The 2-year note yield rose by one basis point to 1%. Longer-dated bonds also saw gains: five-year yields rose about four basis points to 1.35%, and 10-year yields climbed to 1.845%, according to Bloomberg data.
During trading, 10-year government bond yields reached 1.850%, their highest level since June 2008. This 17-year high highlights market belief that the BOJ will tighten policy soon. The shift in yields underscores the rapid change in investor sentiment on the central bank’s next move.
Source: investing.com
Markets responded quickly. The yen gained as much as 0.4% against the dollar, trading at 155.49 on December 1. This reversal from November’s levels reflects growing expectations of higher Japanese interest rates, which are making yen assets newly attractive.
Inflation and Fiscal Policy Drive Shift Toward Tightening
The government’s expansionary fiscal policy has added to inflation pressures, building a case for monetary tightening. Yen depreciation has lifted import prices, fueling consumer inflation and raising questions about the sustainability of price stability. Governor Ueda highlighted the growing impact of a weaker yen on import costs and warned that expectations could affect core inflation.
Market forecasts now suggest the BOJ’s policy rate could reach 1.4% following three 25-basis-point hikes from the current 0.5% rate. Based on Overnight Indexed Swap rates and 1-year forward rates, expectations are clearly rising. Katsutoshi Inatome of Mitsui Sumitomo Trust said that a hike in December would push future rate estimates even higher.
The BOJ faces a careful balance. While lifting rates tackles inflation and supports the currency, it could disrupt financial flows that have relied on cheap Japanese funding. Ueda emphasized that any hike would be measured in an accommodative manner, not as a sharp break. He added that Japanese policy has revived a system where both wages and prices can rise moderately.
Global Markets React as Yen Carry Trade Nears End
The possible unwinding of the yen carry trade marks a significant change for global finance. For 30 years, investors borrowed yen at low rates to seek higher returns elsewhere, supporting asset prices from US stocks to emerging market bonds. This provided leverage that fueled many market rallies.
As Japanese rates climb, the economics of the carry trade shift. Borrowers who locked in 1% funding with a stable yen now face repayment at 3% and a currency that has appreciated by 10%. This raises the effective borrowing cost to around 13%, making such trades far less attractive. The August 2024 flash crash previewed the turmoil that can occur when carry trade positions unwind quickly.
“For 30 years, the Yen Carry Trade subsidized global arrogance — zero rates… free leverage… fake growth… entire economies built on borrowed time and borrowed money. Now Japan has reversed the switch. Rates climbed. Yen strengthened. And the world’s favourite ATM just turned into a debt-collector.” – AlgoBoffin
The Nikkei 225 fell 1.88% as deleveraging began, and analysts warn that this could start a cycle of forced asset sales. When cheap yen financing vanishes, markets must rely on fundamental strength instead of leverage. The ripples stretch beyond Japan, impacting financial hubs like Wall Street and Shanghai that benefited from yen-driven liquidity.
Cryptocurrency markets are especially vulnerable to tighter global liquidity. Bitcoin and other digital assets respond sharply to changes in funding. Typically, risk assets absorb the first wave of volatility when liquidity dries up, potentially causing swings in crypto valuations.
These **three charts together (Japan 10Y + Silver + Bitcoin)** are telling one of the **clearest macro stories of our lifetime**.
## **1️⃣ Japan 10-Year Yield (The Beginning of the End of “Free Money”)**
Some analysts argue that this transition exposes underlying market dynamics that have been masked by years of loose monetary policy. As liquidity tightens and rates normalize, asset prices may be judged more on intrinsic value than on cheap financing. This shift could benefit some commodities and hard assets, but challenge growth sectors that flourished with ultra-low rates.
The coming weeks are pivotal as the BOJ considers its December decision. Markets are set for tightening, but the exact pace is unknown. Whether Japan chooses gradual or sharper rate increases will shape how quickly and severely global deleveraging unfolds. The era of free Japanese money seems to be ending, ushering in a period of higher volatility and greater scrutiny of market fundamentals worldwide.
Bitcoin briefly plunged below $87,000, wiping out a week’s gains in one session.
The fast selloff triggered $400 million in liquidations within just 60 minutes and pushed the global crypto market capitalization down 4% to $3.04 trillion. Trading activity surged as both retail and institutional investors reacted swiftly to price pressure.
Market Turmoil Sparks Massive Liquidations
Liquidations surged across leveraged positions, reflecting the speed of the downturn. Market data noted $400 million liquidated in just one hour. This rapid wave of losses highlights the risks for traders during sharp price moves.
BREAKING: Bitcoin falls -$4,000 in 2 hours as mass liquidations return.
$400 million worth of levered longs have been liquidated over the last 60 minutes. pic.twitter.com/qKB7MYJapu
Trading volume spiked to over $110 billion as investors adjusted their holdings. Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 57.1%, while Ethereum held 11.3%, according to CoinGecko data.
The Kobeissi Letter attributed the crash to thin weekend liquidity and record-high leverage, saying, “This crypto bear market is still structural in nature. We do NOT view this as a fundamental decline.” The analyst noted that Bitcoin fell $4,000 in minutes with no news. This triggered a domino-effect selloff amplified by mass liquidations of leveraged positions.
Other analysts have warned that Bitcoin’s price pattern resembles earlier bearish cycles. Following a recovery above $90,000 after a drop on November 20, Bitcoin hovered around $91,208.85 on November 28 and maintained support at $90,000 for six days.
Korbot Labs describes that the current price action echoes April 2024, when Bitcoin bounced back above $70,000 only to drop to $57,000 by May and later to $67,000 by June. This pattern suggests that further sideways movement or another correction is possible.
“Bitcoin not a good open to start the week! Much closer to becoming 2-1-2d as a measured move. This tends to cause a ‘wipe out’ type move if we successfully break through 80.00. Could see as low as 48k if we see the sellers stick around into the end of this year.”
Technical analysis also points to crucial support zones. Should selling persist, prices could slip much further. A drop to $48,000 would mark a dramatic 45% decline from current levels, but such a move would likely require sustained bearish sentiment.
Asset Rotation Narrative Shapes Sentiment
Some analysts see Bitcoin’s selloff as part of a broader shift in asset allocation. The move came as traditional safe-haven assets like precious metals outperformed. This suggests some investors are reconsidering their risk exposure.
Source: silverprice.org
This argument states that capital is flowing from digital assets to “hard money” alternatives. Silver, for example, surged even as Bitcoin fell. Some analysts see this as a sign of changing investor preferences.
“While #Bitcoin just erased most of the last week gain in a single candle, #Silver is breaking out vertically like there’s no tomorrow. Money is choosing real assets over speculative assets. The rotation is screaming loud: Paper wealth → Hard money, Digital risk → Monetary metals” – Macrobysunil
This theory remains hotly debated. Bitcoin has repeatedly rebounded from steep selloffs. Its 57.1% market dominance shows it still attracts most digital asset flows, despite volatility.
Meanwhile, on the first day of December, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $87,000 before quickly recovering. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading in the $87,200–$87,400 range, with market participants closely watching whether the $87,000 support level will hold.
MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor’s cryptic post, “What if we start adding green dots?” to his well-known Bitcoin accumulation chart, has fueled widespread speculation across crypto circles.
The signal emerges just as CEO Phong Le publicly acknowledged, for the first time, that the company may sell Bitcoin under certain stress conditions. This dual narrative could mark a turning point for the corporate world’s most aggressive Bitcoin treasury strategy.
Decoding the Green Dots Mystery
Saylor’s Sunday post on X displayed the company’s Bitcoin portfolio chart. It outlined 87 purchase events totaling 649,870 BTC, valued at $59.45 billion, with an average cost of $74,433 per Bitcoin. Orange dots mark each acquisition since August 2020, while a dashed green line shows the average purchase price.
The crypto community quickly interpreted the green dots as a signal for accelerated Bitcoin purchases. One analyst summarized the bullish case, noting MicroStrategy has capital, conviction, substantial net asset value, and cash flow to support continued acquisitions. However, some offered alternative theories, including the possibility of stock buybacks or asset restructuring.
This ambiguity reflects Saylor’s history of cryptic messages. Supporters view his posts as deliberate signals of strategy, while skeptics question if they are merely for engagement. Still, the timing of this signal, along with financial disclosures, points to more than mere commentary.
First Admission: Bitcoin Sales Remain an Option
In a significant shift from MicroStrategy’s “never sell” philosophy, CEO Phong Le publicly admitted the company may sell Bitcoin if certain crisis conditions arise. MicroStrategy would consider a sale only if two triggers occur: the stock trades below 1x modified Net Asset Value (mNAV) and the company cannot raise new capital through equity or debt.
Modified Net Asset Value measures the company’s enterprise value divided by its Bitcoin holdings. As of November 30, 2025, the mNAV was near 0.95, close to the threshold. If it drops below 0.9, MicroStrategy could be pressured to liquidate Bitcoin to meet its $750 to $800 million annual preferred share dividend obligations.
The company issued perpetual preferred stock throughout 2025 to fund Bitcoin acquisitions. According to official press releases, the 8.00% Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock requires quarterly dividends starting on March 31, 2025. These ongoing obligations add new liquidity pressure, especially as equity markets become less receptive to new issuances.
This policy change introduces a measurable risk threshold. Analysts now consider MicroStrategy much like a leveraged Bitcoin ETF: benefiting from appreciation in bull markets, but exposed to amplified risks when liquidity tightens.
Bitcoin Price Movement and Strategic Implications
Bitcoin’s recent price movement adds essential context to both Saylor’s message and Le’s admission.
MicroStrategy’s portfolio showed a 22.91% gain ($11.08 billion) as of November 30, 2025, bringing its valuation to $59.45 billion. However, its stock declined by more than 60% from recent highs, revealing a gap between Bitcoin gains and shareholder returns. This gap impacts the mNAV calculation and raises questions about the strategy’s sustainability.
green dots = more btc acquisitions. microstrategy proved treasury strategy works in bull markets. real test is holding through -80% drawdowns without forced liquidation. conviction has a price denominated in shareholder patience
Some community members acknowledge this tension. One observer commented on X that green dots may suggest more Bitcoin acquisitions, but the key issue is whether MicroStrategy can hold through deep drawdowns without forced liquidation. This underscores the strategy’s challenge: strong in bull markets but unproven in downturns.
According to the company’s third-quarter 2025 financial results, it held roughly 640,808 bitcoins as of October 26, 2025, with an original cost basis of $47.4 billion. The subsequent growth to 649,870 BTC by November 30 highlights ongoing accumulation despite volatility.
Yearn Finance confirmed an active exploit affecting its yETH product on Sunday, after an attacker minted an effectively unlimited amount of yETH and drained liquidity from Balancer pools.
The incident triggered heavy on-chain movement, including multiple 100 ETH transfers routed through Tornado Cash.
Infinite-Mint Attack Drains Liquidity From Balancer Pools
According to blockchain data, the exploit occurred around 21:11 UTC on November 30, when a malicious wallet executed an infinite-mint attack that created roughly 235 trillion yETH in a single transaction.
some other balancer related stuff looking like an exploit considering heavy interactions with tornado
Nansen’s alert system later confirmed the attack and identified the event as an infinite-mint vulnerability in the yETH token contract, not in Yearn’s Vault infrastructure.
The attacker used the newly minted yETH to drain real assets—primarily ETH and Liquid Staking Tokens (LSTs)—from Balancer liquidity pools. Early estimates suggest roughly $2.8 million in assets were removed.
Around 1,000 ETH was laundered through Tornado Cash shortly after the attack. Several helper contracts used in the exploit were deployed minutes before the incident and self-destructed afterward to obscure the trail.
some other balancer related stuff looking like an exploit considering heavy interactions with tornado
Yearn stated that V2 and V3 Vaults were not affected, and the vulnerability appears limited to the legacy yETH implementation.
The protocol’s Total Value Locked (TVL) remains above $600 million, according to CoinGecko, suggesting core systems were not compromised.
YFI Price Spikes as Market Reverses Initial Panic
However, the market reaction created an unexpected dynamic. Shortly after the exploit was flagged on social media and by blockchain analysts, YFI’s price spiked sharply, climbing from near $4,080 to over $4,160 within an hour.
The move came despite the negative headlines surrounding the broader Yearn ecosystem.
The price reaction appears tied to market misinterpretation in the early minutes of the incident. Initial claims of a “Yearn exploit” prompted high-leverage short positions on YFI, given the token’s thin liquidity and historically aggressive downside moves during hack events.
The attack was isolated to yETH and not Yearn’s Vaults, and short-sellers began covering their positions. This triggered a brief short squeeze and a volatility-driven price spike.
YFI’s circulating supply is only 33,984 tokens, making it one of the most illiquid major DeFi governance assets. This structure amplifies price movements, particularly during periods of uncertainty or rapid liquidation flow. Derivatives data also showed elevated funding volatility immediately after the exploit alert.
For now, losses appear contained to the yETH and Balancer pools touched by the exploit. Investigations remain ongoing, and it is unclear whether any recovery options exist for the stolen assets.
Markets will likely watch for a formal Yearn disclosure detailing root cause, patching efforts, and potential governance actions.
A powerful and unusual wave of global capital is rushing into US markets. Foreign investors are buying American equities at a record pace, Treasury demand is reshuffling at a structural level, and domestic inflows are accelerating into year-end.
At the same time, US consumer debt has hit its highest level in history. For crypto and equity investors, the scale and direction of these flows signal a major shift in risk appetite and global macro positioning.
Foreign Investors Drive Record Equity Buying Amid Historic Realignment in Treasury Ownership
Private investors outside the US purchased $646.8 billion in US equities in the 12 months ending September 2025, according to data cited by Yardeni Research.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Private investors outside U.S. purchased record $646.8 billion of U.S. equities in the 12 months ending in September 2025 – Yardeni Research. pic.twitter.com/9dPxGJoS3g
This marks the highest level on record, surpassing the 2021 peak by 66%, with flows doubling since January.
The buying is not limited to US equities. Foreign private-investor purchases of US Treasuries totalled $492.7 billion in the same period. Rolling 12-month non-US buying of Treasuries has remained above $400 billion for four consecutive years, reflecting persistent global demand for dollar-denominated safety.
“Everyone wants US assets,” analysts at the Kobeissi Letter remarked.
The composition of foreign Treasury holders is shifting in ways not seen in decades:
China’s share of foreign Treasury holdings has fallen to 7.6%, the lowest in 23 years, and down 20% over 14 years.
The UK’s share has quadrupled to 9.4%, near its highest level on record.
Japan, still the largest foreign holder, now accounts for 12.9%, down 26 points over the last 21 years.
Domestic Investors Also Going Risk-On, But Record Consumer Debt Adds Complexity
US investors have poured an extraordinary $900 billion into equity funds since November 2024, according to JPMorgan data, with half of that total, $450 billion, arriving in just the last five months.
US Asset Class Flows. Source: JP Morgan
Fixed-income funds added another $400 billion, while all other asset classes combined attracted only $100 billion.
Inflows into US equities have exceeded those into all other asset classes combined, reinforcing the strength of the bid for US risk assets.
While institutional and foreign investors are ramping up their exposure, US households are under growing financial pressure. Total US credit-card debt climbed to $1.233 trillion in Q3 2025, the highest level ever recorded.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Total U.S. credit-card debt reaches $1.233 trillion in third quarter of 2025, highest amount since tracking began. pic.twitter.com/sFi2cMhZTg
This divergence between market optimism and consumer strain raises questions about sustainability, earnings resilience, and the timing of potential policy shifts.
Seasonality and Bullish Projections Lift Sentiment
JP Morgan expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 next year, a view reinforced by powerful seasonal tailwinds. This projection comes as markets anticipate the bank’s “everything rally” forecast shared just over a week ago.
December has historically been the strongest month for US stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 73% of the time since 1928 and delivering an average return of +1.28%.
For both crypto and equity markets, the surge in capital flows toward the US signals rising confidence in American assets, or a lack of attractive alternatives abroad.
Investors will watch to see whether these inflows accelerate in 2026, how Treasury demand shifts as global holdings rebalance, and whether record consumer debt becomes a drag on macroeconomic momentum.
With liquidity building and seasonality strengthening, both traditional markets and digital assets are entering a potentially decisive phase.
The real-world asset market has been recovering after a slow November, with fresh interest emerging from stablecoin experiments and strong technical setups. Activity remains uneven across the sector, but a few charts are setting up more cleanly than the others.
Among the key RWA tokens to watch, three stand out as December approaches. Each shows a different mix of strength, recovery potential, and risk.
Stellar (XLM)
Among key RWA tokens to watch in December, Stellar (XLM) stands out as a payments-first chain that big financial players actually use.
On the chart, Stellar is quietly building a reversal setup. Between November 4 and November 21, the price reached a lower low; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low.
RSI measures momentum on a 0–100 scale, so this “price down, RSI up” pattern, standard bullish divergence, often hints that selling pressure is fading under the surface.
The rebound began immediately after that signal, yet XLM remains trapped in a tight range between $0.253 and $0.264. A clean daily close above $0.264 is the first sign that bulls are back in control.
If that happens, the next upside areas to watch are $0.275 and then $0.324 if the broader market improves.
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If the XLM price falls below $0.239 instead, the bullish setup weakens, and the move could stretch toward $0.217, delaying any RWA-driven recovery story.
Quant (QNT)
Quant is the clear outlier among RWA tokens to watch right now. While most real-world-asset plays struggled through November, QNT moved in the opposite direction. It is up about 32% this month and roughly 37% in the past seven days. In the last 24 hours alone, the token added another 12%, making it one of the strongest charts in this segment.
Quant sits at the center of the “interoperability for finance” narrative. Its Overledger tech connects private and public blockchains, which is why it often reacts earlier than other RWA coins when institutional demand strengthens.
On the chart, momentum is still building. QNT is close to forming a bullish EMA (Exponential Moving Average) crossover on the daily chart, where the 20-day EMA is about to move above the 50-day EMA.
This setup often signals that buyers are gaining control. If the crossover completes, Quant (QNT) could have room for another strong push.
The EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, is a trend line that gives more weight to recent prices, allowing traders to see short-term momentum more clearly.
The first level to clear is $119. This level lines up with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. If buyers stay active, even $142 comes into view as the next major resistance.
On the downside, $100 is the first support to watch. Losing that level can force QNT back toward $91 and $87. The broader bullish structure breaks only if the token falls below $82. This is the point at which the current uptrend stops making sense.
For now, Quant remains the most resilient name in this RWA group and carries the strongest momentum heading into December.
That uncertainty shows up on the chart. Ondo has posted a steady rebound since November 21, but the more significant development is evident in its OBV line.
OBV, or on-balance volume, measures whether buying volume is stronger than selling volume over time. Ondo’s OBV has broken above the descending trendline in place since early November.
This breakout occurred while the price has been stuck between $0.50 and $0.54 since November 27, which suggests that accumulation may be forming beneath the surface.
For upside movement, the first step is a clean close above $0.54. That level sits about 6% above the current price. Clearing it can pave the way for a move toward $0.60, and a stronger market could push the ONDO price toward $0.70.
If OBV fails to hold above the breakout line and slips back under it, the move becomes a fake-out. In that case, losing $0.50 becomes more likely, and the next key support is near $0.44.
Among the RWA tokens, ONDO has the most balanced setup. It has the structure to move higher if accumulation continues, but the same range can break on the downside if OBV weakens again.
On December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will officially end Quantitative Tightening (QT), freezing its balance sheet at $6.57 trillion after draining $2.39 trillion from the system.
Analysts point to parallels with 2019, when the last QT pause coincided with a major bottom in altcoins and a surge in Bitcoin. With liquidity returning and interest rates already cut to 3.75–4.00%, crypto markets are bracing for a potentially bullish shift.
The Fed’s halt of its balance sheet runoff comes amid strained bank reserves, now roughly $3 trillion, or about 10% of US GDP. The Overnight Reverse Repo facility, which previously absorbed $2.5 trillion in excess cash, has dropped to near zero, removing a key liquidity buffer.
October 2025 saw the Secured Overnight Financing Rate spike to 4.25%, exceeding the Fed’s target range. The Standing Repo Facility recorded a single-day activation of $18.5 billion, reflecting persistent demand for liquidity.
“The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1,” read an excerpt in the Fed’s October 29 statement.
This means that QT officially ends on December 1, and the Fed will stop letting its securities mature without reinvestment. From that day forward, the balance sheet will no longer shrink.
The Committee noted that downside risks to employment have risen, even though unemployment remains low, and inflation is “somewhat elevated.”
Analysts note that this marks a long-term shift: the Standing Repo Facility, initially an emergency tool, now functions as a permanent daily liquidity provider, effectively embedding the Fed in Treasury market operations.
Researcher Shanaka Anslem describes this as the “Standing Repo Era,” a structural transformation with lasting implications for global finance.
THE FED JUST CROSSED A THRESHOLD NO ONE IS DISCUSSING
December 1, 2025. The Federal Reserve terminates Quantitative Tightening. Balance sheet frozen at $6.57 trillion. The largest liquidity withdrawal in central banking history ends after draining $2.39 trillion from the… pic.twitter.com/W0QjrXC3JB
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the Fed is considering additional rate cuts after October’s 25-bps reduction.
The US federal debt exceeds $36 trillion, with annual interest costs above $1 trillion. The Standing Repo Facility now enables rapid monetization of Treasury collateral, representing a structural shift with long-term market implications.
Some crypto analysts anticipate an immediate rally following QT’s end, while others see a smaller altseason within 2–3 months and a larger market cycle in 2027–2028.
🚨 Fed Liquidity is Here: The Crypto Melt-Up Starts Now 🚨
The Fed is on the verge of ending QT, just like 2019 and that means one thing: Liquidity is coming back.
If you know what this means for #Bitcoin and altcoins, you should be excited.
December 1 marks a critical turning point as the Fed’s liquidity pivot could remove one major obstacle for risk assets. The move could set the stage for crypto markets to respond, whether through a mini rally or the early stages of a broader Supercycle.
While QT ends on December 1, the Fed emphasized that future adjustments to the federal funds rate will depend on incoming data and changing economic risks.
This signals that the Fed is keeping monetary policy flexible, prepared to adjust rates or other measures if necessary.
Investors should watch interest rate guidance, Treasury liquidity operations, and M2 money supply trends in the coming weeks.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is urging the Zcash community to avoid adopting token-based voting for governance.
In a November 30 post on X, he said token voting would push the system toward short-term price incentives at the expense of the long-term civil liberties the project aims to protect.
Buterin Flags Governance Risks to Privacy
Buterin linked his position to arguments he outlined in a 2021 essay on decentralized governance, noting that token-weighted systems carry vulnerabilities such as unbundled rights that make covert vote buying possible.
I hope Zcash resists the dark hand of token voting.
Token voting is bad in all kinds of ways (see https://t.co/Cvl7CFVgtc ); I think it's worse than Zcash's status quo.
Privacy is exactly the sort of thing that will erode over time if left to the median token holder. https://t.co/NbRqGLOrpj
He added that these mechanisms tend to concentrate influence among whales while leaving smaller holders with little accountability. Many smaller participants may vote without regard for the outcome if they believe their individual impact is negligible.
He described token voting as “bad in all kinds of ways,” saying it would be worse than Zcash’s existing structure.
“Privacy is exactly the sort of thing that will erode over time if left to the median token holder,” Buterin said.
Buterin’s remarks land amid a broader debate over how Zcash should select the Zcash Community Grants committee, a five-member group that reviews and approves major grants across the ecosystem.
Community Members Argue on Decentralized Governance
Some community members argue the current committee-based framework is outdated and should be replaced.
Mert Mumtaz, CEO of Helius and a pro-Zcash investor, said the debate underscores a broader governance issue.
Mumtaz argued that markets provide built-in correction mechanisms because poor decisions are punished through falling prices, shifting governance influence, and updating collective knowledge. He noted that committees lack that feedback loop and can remain detached from real-world outcomes.
He likened this separation to what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls the “interventionista,” a bureaucrat making consequential decisions without bearing the associated risks.
By contrast, he noted that ancient Roman generals operated on the front lines, where survival depended directly on the quality of their decisions.
While acknowledging the flaws in token voting, Mumtaz said static committees present a deeper problem because they are “uncriticizable and account to no one.” He added that systems grounded in market dynamics adapt over time, whereas committees do not, arguing that “evolution wins long-term.”
Community members have echoed related concerns. Naval, a user on X, said third-party overseers introduce structural security flaws regardless of their independence.
Another user, Darklight, argued that market-based systems tend toward plutocracy and may fail to preserve civil liberties.
Data from BeInCrypto show the token has risen more than 1,000% in the last three months, reaching a high of $723 before retreating to current levels. Zcash trades near $448 at press time after falling more than 20% in the past week.
MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le has, for the first time, acknowledged that the company could sell its 649,870 BTC holdings under specific crisis conditions.
This marks a significant shift from Chairman Michael Saylor’s long-standing “never sell” philosophy and signals a new chapter for the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
CEO Phong Le Reveals Hidden Kill-Switch in MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy
MicroStrategy has confirmed a scenario almost no one thought possible: the potential to sell Bitcoin, its core treasury asset. Speaking on What Bitcoin Did, CEO Phong Le outlined the precise trigger that would force a Bitcoin sale:
First, the company’s stock must trade below 1x mNAV, meaning the market capitalization falls below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
Second, MicroStrategy must be unable to raise new capital through equity or debt issuance. This would mean capital markets are closed or too expensive to access.
JUST IN: Strategy CEO Phong Le says $BTC would only be sold if the company’s stock falls below net asset value and funding options disappear, calling it a financial decision. pic.twitter.com/YpgEIeF3qe
Le clarified that the board has not planned near-term sales, but confirmed that this option “is in the toolkit” if financial conditions deteriorate.
This is the first explicit acknowledgement, after years of Michael Saylor’s absolutist claim that “we will never sell Bitcoin.” It shows that MicroStrategy does, in fact, have a kill-switch tied directly to liquidity pressure.
Why the 1x mNAV Threshold Matters
mNAV compares MicroStrategy’s market value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. When mNAV drops below 1, the company becomes worth less than the Bitcoin it owns.
Several analysts, including AB Kuai Dong and Larry Lanzilli, note that the company is now facing a new constraint. The mNAV premium that powered its Bitcoin-accumulation flywheel has nearly vanished for the first time since early 2024.
As of November 30, mNAV hovers near 0.95x, edging uncomfortably close to the 0.9x “danger zone.”
If mNAV falls below 0.9x, MicroStrategy could be pushed toward BTC-funded dividend obligations. Under extreme conditions the firm would be compelled to sell portions of its treasury to maintain shareholder value.
🧵 MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le just confirmed on What Bitcoin Did (Nov 29, 2025):
😯 “If MSTR stock trades <1x mNAV AND we can’t raise fresh capital → we would sell portions of our #Bitcoin as a last-resort move.”
🤔 He called it “mathematically justified” to protect Bitcoin…
The pressure stems from $750–$800 million in annual preferred share dividend payments, issued during MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin expansion.
Previously, the company used new equity issuances to cover these costs. With the stock down more than 60% from its highs and market skepticism rising, that avenue is narrowing.
Strategy (MSTR) Stock Price Performance. Source: Google Finance
Analysts Warn of a Structural Shift
According to Astryx Research, MicroStrategy has effectively transformed into a “leveraged Bitcoin ETF with a software company attached.” That structure works when BTC rises, but amplifies stress when liquidity tightens or volatility spikes.
Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy: Genius or Hidden Risk?@saylor and MicroStrategy have done something no public company in history has ever done:
They turned their balance sheet into a leveraged Bitcoin ETF with a software company attached — and it has paid off massively.… pic.twitter.com/KfAMJYWB7y
SEC filings have long warned about liquidity risk during a deep Bitcoin drawdown. While the firm maintains that it faces no forced liquidation risk due to its convertible debt structure, the CEO’s latest comments confirm a mathematically defined trigger for voluntary sales.
If $BTC drops to our $74K average cost basis, we still have 5.9x assets to convertible debt, which we refer to as the BTC Rating of our debt. At $25K BTC, it would be 2.0x.
MicroStrategy is the largest corporate BTC holder in the world. Its “HODL forever” stance has been a symbolic pillar of the institutional Bitcoin thesis. Acknowledging a sell condition, even if distant, shifts that narrative toward realism:
Liquidity can override ideology.
Market structure matters as much as conviction.
The Bitcoin cycle now has a new, and measurable, risk threshold: the 0.9x mNAV line.
Investors will watch Monday’s updates closely as analysts track whether mNAV stabilizes or continues slipping toward 0.9x.
Any further weakness in BTC or MSTR stock could intensify scrutiny of MicroStrategy’s balance sheet strategy heading into 2026.
Monad has dropped over 47% from its post-listing high in just four days. The Monad price chart shows a rapid launch spike followed by a sharp downside slide, a pattern similar to how Pi Coin traded immediately after its launch. Both are new layer-1 projects that launched with strong attention, but both slipped quickly after launch.
This piece compares the chart structures and then examines whether MON is exhibiting the same sustained weakness as Pi Coin, or if its own setup still indicates signs of stability.
Monad Mirrors Pi Coin’s Early Post-Listing Slide
Pi Coin lost 86.57% of its value within the first six weeks after listing and is now down more than 91% from its post-launch high.
The key difference is the market backdrop. Pi Coin launched during a stronger crypto environment earlier this year. And when it dropped, it couldn’t even recover half of its losses despite BTC hitting new highs in early October.
Monad is entering a weaker market where liquidity is thin and large assets are struggling to hold momentum. So the odds are certainly not in favor.
Even though the price-specific parallel between MON and PI is clear on the surface, the next step is to look deeper into Monad’s own chart and structure to see whether the weakness continues or if there are early signs of support forming.
Supply Strength Weakens As Large Money Flow Drops
Monad’s internal picture becomes weaker once we examine how big money has behaved since the listing week.
The first signal comes from CMF, which tracks whether bigger buyers are sending money into an asset or pulling it out. After the initial post-launch spike, the token stabilized near the end of October, which is when CMF became usable. From that point, the money-flow line has moved only one way — down.
Since October 27, CMF has dropped by more than 270% and has remained below zero for most of the decline. A fall under zero means larger buyers are stepping aside, not adding support.
Even big market players like Arthur Hayes have expressed doubts regarding Monad, citing the significant outflows of capital.
MON’s CMF is now sitting close to its lowest reading since the token went live, which usually signals that confidence from deeper pockets has not returned.
The second problem appears in the bull-bear power reading. BBP measures whether buyers or sellers have more control of momentum. When BBP leans this heavily negative while CMF keeps making new lows, even recoveries tend to be short-lived.
Taken together, these signs indicate that Monad is not yet attracting strong bidding. The MON price chart appears bearish, and both metrics indicate that buyers remain hesitant. Even if short-term bounces appear, a meaningful reversal looks difficult unless large amounts of money return and momentum turns upward.
How Low Can Monad Price Go If The Slide Continues?
With money flow weakening and sellers in full control, the last piece of the puzzle is the price structure itself. The short-term trend on the 4-hour Monad price chart has pointed down since November 26, and the candles have respected that slope without any meaningful shift.
In this phase, the chart works like a simple extension map where each failed bounce pushes the next level into focus.
If Monad loses $0.026, the slide can extend toward $0.023, which is the next clear continuation level on the trend-based extension. If momentum remains weak and money flow continues to decline, even $0.013 remains on the table as a deeper projection.
These levels appear far, but Pi Coin also continued to slide post-launch, and the similarity in the early structure is hard to ignore.
Any recovery attempt needs to start with a move back above $0.029. That only stabilizes the structure. The real shift appears only if Monad closes above $0.039 and then $0.040.
A push above those bands would break the current slope, rebuild confidence, and weaken the comparison with Pi Coin’s early chart.
For now, Monad trades under both of those marks, with money flow still near its lows and momentum held by sellers. Unless those two conditions flip, the path of least resistance remains down, and the parallel with Pi Coin stays alive rather than fading.
Kazakhstan’s central bank is weighing a plan to invest up to $300 million in cryptocurrency assets.
On November 28, Timur Suleimenov, chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, said the bank could allocate funds from the National Fund and its foreign-exchange reserves into crypto.
Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Weighs Timing for Crypto Plan
However, he emphasized that the full amount may not be used.
“In the first stage, we’ll be managing gold and foreign exchange reserves. This is the same money that needs to be managed. Some of it is in gold, some in securities. Within this portfolio, a separate portfolio has already been created, focusing on investments in high-tech stocks and other financial instruments related to digital financial assets. The amounts are up to $300 million. This doesn’t mean we’ve just invested $300 million; we might limit ourselves to $50 million, $100 million, or $250 million,” he reportedly said.
Considering this, he stated that the central bank intends to wait for conditions to stabilize before committing funds to the industry.
“We won’t make any decisions without thorough analysis. We’re analyzing. We won’t rush these decisions until good investment opportunities emerge. After the current decline in all digital, financial, and crypto assets, we need to let the dust settle before making investment decisions,” He explained
The initiative forms part of a broader expansion of the central bank’s foreign-exchange portfolio.
The NBK plans to diversify its holdings, which currently rely heavily on gold and securities, by adding high-tech stocks and financial instruments linked to digital assets.
Meanwhile, the deliberations come nearly three months after Tokayev instructed the creation of a strategic state reserve for digital assets. The Presidential Press Service said the reserve should focus on cryptocurrency markets given “modern realities.”
Since then, Kazakhstan has entered the digital asset reserve space through its Alem Crypto Fund. The country, through a partnership with Binance, has purchased BNB.
Kazakhstan’s consideration aligns with a broader shift by some sovereign institutions, including that of the United States, toward testing or accumulating digital assets.
The Bitcoin price in December is now a key focus, given that the market ended November on a weak note. Bitcoin dropped more than 17% this month, breaking its usual November trend and raising questions about whether the recent $80,000 bounce was the real bottom.
December has a mixed history for Bitcoin, and early data for this year shows some caution in both spot flows and on-chain signals. This analysis examines three key areas: seasonal performance, ETF flows, and insights from on-chain and price charts regarding the upcoming month.
Bitcoin’s December History and What ETF Flows Reveal
December is not usually a very strong month for Bitcoin. The long-term average return is 8.42%, but the median return is only 1.69%. The last four years also show mixed results, with three negative Decembers.
November added more caution. Instead of repeating its strong seasonal pattern, Bitcoin finished the month more than 17% lower.
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ETF flows echo that caution. November closed with –$3.48 billion in net outflows across US spot ETFs. The last clear multi-month inflow streak happened between April and July.
Since then, flows have been inconsistent, and November confirmed that institutions remained defensive.
MEXC Chief Analyst Shawn Young told BeInCrypto that stronger and more consistent ETF demand is essential before a meaningful rebound can begin:
“The most evident indicators of Bitcoin’s next upside rally would be a resurgence in risk sentiment, improved liquidity conditions, and market depth… When Bitcoin spot ETFs begin to see multiple days of inflows of $200–$300 million, it may indicate that institutional allocators are rotating back into BTC and the next leg up is underway,” he mentioned.
Hunter Rogers, Co-Founder of TeraHash, added that the setup for December still looks muted even after November’s flush-out:
“I don’t expect a highly-volatile December — neither a major jump nor a major drop. A quieter month with a slow upward movement looks more realistic. If ETF flows calm down and volatility stays low, Bitcoin could put in a small positive surprise. But this still feels like a repair phase,” he said.
Together, the seasonal pattern and ETF flows show that December may stay cautious unless ETF demand turns sharply higher.
On-Chain Metrics Still Show Weak Conviction
Bitcoin’s on-chain data still does not match what a confirmed December bottom usually looks like. Two core signals tell the same story: whales are still sending coins to exchanges, and long-term holders remain in distribution mode.
The Exchange Whale Ratio — which measures how much of total inflows come from the top 10 large wallets — climbed from 0.32 earlier this month to 0.68 on November 27.
Even after easing to 0.53, it remains in a zone that historically reflects whales preparing to sell, not accumulate. Durable bottoms rarely form when this ratio stays elevated across several weeks.
The Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks long-term investor behavior, also stays deep in the red. These wallets have been reducing their positions for more than six months. The last strong BTC rally began only after this metric turned green in late September — a milestone it has not achieved again yet.
Until long-term holders stop sending coins back into circulation, sustained upside becomes harder to support.
Shawn believes that a true shift begins only when long-term sellers step aside:
“The rally could begin when OG sellers stop transferring coins onto exchanges, whale accumulation turns positive again, and market depth starts to thicken across major venues,” he emphasized
Hunter Rogers echoed this view, linking any trend reversal to cleaner supply behavior from miners and long-term wallets:
“When long-term holders quietly move back into accumulation, it means supply pressure is fading,” he mentioned
So far, neither trend has flipped. Whales continue to send coins to exchanges, and long-term holders continue to distribute. Together, they signal that the Bitcoin price in December may attempt deeper retests before any strong recovery attempt.
Bitcoin Price In December: Key Risks And Confirmations
The Bitcoin price now sits at a point where even a small move can set the tone for December. The broader trend still leans bearish, and the chart structure confirms what the ETF and on-chain data already hint at.
BTC recently slipped below the lower band of a bear flag that has been building for weeks. This breakdown suggests a possible extension to $66,800, although the market may not reach that level immediately if liquidity remains stable.
For December, the first major line to watch is $80,400. That level acted as a rebound zone earlier this month, but it remains fragile.
A clean close below $80,400 opens room for new lows, aligning with what Shawn Young believes is still “a plausible liquidity sweep” before any stronger recovery attempt.
Here is what he said in an exclusive bit, giving the market some hope as well:
“Bitcoin’s market setup suggests a wick-style liquidity sweep rather than a prolonged breakdown,” he believes
On the upside, the structure only flips if BTC reclaims $97,100 — the midpoint of the larger pole-and-flag setup. A daily close above that zone would erase the bear-flag breakdown and begin a move toward resistance near $101,600.
Hunter also pointed out that reclaiming higher trend levels only matters if volume rises along with it. As he put it:
“If Bitcoin holds above the breakout zone and volume improves, then the market can start treating that area as a durable floor,” he mentioned.
For December, that breakout zone sits between $93,900 and $97,100, which is where the chart, ETFs, and on-chain conditions need to switch from defensive to supportive.
Until those confirmations arrive, the downside remains more pronounced than the upside. A deeper Bitcoin price retest stays in play if ETF outflows accelerate or if whales continue to send coins to exchanges.
For now, the Bitcoin price in December begins with the OG crypto sitting between two critical walls — $80,400 as the last defensive floor, and $97,137 as the ceiling that can reset momentum.
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