Precious metals rally to multi-week and all-time highs as Fed easing expectations climb, but crypto markets tell a different story amid ETF outflows and macro headwinds.
Gold prices touched a six-week high on Monday while silver struck a record, buoyed by growing expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar.
Silver Shines on Supply Squeeze
Spot gold climbed to $4,241 per ounce, its highest level since late October, while silver soared to a record $58.83 before retreating slightly. The white metal has more than doubled in value this year, far outpacing gold’s impressive 60% gain.
The primary driver behind this rally is growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch data, traders are now pricing in an 87.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting, with only a 12.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged.
Beyond monetary policy expectations, silver is benefiting from acute supply constraints. A historic squeeze in London during October drew record amounts of the metal into the trading hub, subsequently draining inventories elsewhere. Shanghai Futures Exchange-linked warehouses recently hit their lowest levels in nearly a decade, while one-month borrowing costs for silver remain elevated.
Source: CME FedWatch
The dollar’s slide to a two-week low has further enhanced the appeal of precious metals for holders of other currencies. Dovish remarks from Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, have reinforced expectations for continued monetary easing.
Bitcoin Bucks the Trend
Yet Bitcoin, often touted as “digital gold,” has moved in the opposite direction. The leading cryptocurrency plunged to around $86,000, down roughly 30% from its October all-time high near $126,000.
Several factors explain this divergence. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $3.4 billion in net outflows in November, reversing earlier inflows. A $9 million Yearn Finance hack on December 1 rattled DeFi sentiment, while Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s hints at a potential rate hike sparked fears of global carry trade unwinding. Additionally, over $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated during the recent selloff.
Those who said that the bitcoin chart will follow gold in the future.
Although gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all non-yielding assets, precious metals are benefiting from independent bullish drivers—namely, physical supply shortages. Bitcoin, by contrast, remains far more sensitive to ETF fund flows and leverage liquidations.
While rate-cut expectations should be favorable for Bitcoin over the medium to long term, short-term headwinds are currently exerting greater influence.
China’s yuan is on track for its strongest annual performance in five years, gaining nearly 4% against the dollar in 2025.
While the rally has captured headlines in traditional finance, its implications for cryptocurrency markets are complicated by Beijing’s increasingly hawkish regulatory stance.
Reduced Capital Flight, Tighter Enforcement
Several factors are driving the yuan’s appreciation: the People’s Bank of China’s supportive daily fixing, renewed inflows into Chinese equities, and a roughly 7% decline in the dollar index. Central investment banks remain bullish, with Goldman Sachs projecting the currency could reach 6.85 per dollar within a year.
For crypto investors, yuan strength is not inherently bullish. Historically, periods of yuan weakness—such as 2018-2019—prompted Chinese capital to seek refuge in Bitcoin as a hedge against currency depreciation. A stronger yuan reverses this dynamic, reducing capital flight incentives and making dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin, relatively less attractive to Chinese investors.
Adding to the bearish undertone for China-linked crypto flows, the PBOC last week reaffirmed its crackdown on virtual currencies. At a regulatory coordination meeting on November 29, the central bank warned that crypto speculation has recently resurged, presenting new challenges for risk control. It reiterated that virtual currency-related business activities remain “illegal financial activities” in China.
The PBOC also flagged specific concerns about stablecoins, citing failures to meet customer identification and anti-money-laundering requirements. Authorities warned that stablecoins risk facilitating money laundering, fraud, and unauthorized cross-border fund transfers—signaling that Beijing views dollar-pegged tokens as potential loopholes for capital flight even as the yuan strengthens.
Macro Tailwinds Persist for Yuan
Yet the broader macro backdrop remains supportive for crypto. The same forces driving yuan appreciation—dollar weakness, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, and improving global risk sentiment—are traditionally favorable for risk assets. Bitcoin’s rally since August has coincided with the yuan’s rebound, suggesting both are responding to the same liquidity-driven tailwinds.
While a stronger yuan and tighter Chinese enforcement may reduce one historical source of Bitcoin demand, global liquidity conditions and dollar weakness continue to serve as more significant drivers for crypto market direction.
Vanguard, the $8 trillion US asset manager, will allow crypto-focused ETFs and mutual funds to trade on its platform from December 2, ending its long-standing refusal to support digital asset products.
The decision marks a major shift for the world’s second-largest asset manager and opens regulated crypto access to more than 50 million brokerage customers.
Vanguard Abandons Its Anti-Crypto Policy
The firm confirmed it will support products that hold Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, and other regulated cryptocurrencies.
However, it will continue to block funds tied to meme coins and will not launch its own digital asset products.
Starting tmrw vanguard will allow ETFs and MFs tracking bitcoin and select other cryptos to begin trading on their platform. They cite how the ETfs have been tested performed as designed through multiple periods of volatility. Story via @emily_graffeopic.twitter.com/AKhMdR7pab
The company rejected spot Bitcoin ETFs after their January 2024 debut and even restricted customer purchases of competing funds.
For years, Vanguard executives argued that crypto lacked intrinsic value, produced no cash flows, and did not fit long-term retirement strategies.
However, persistent demand pressured the firm to rethink its stance. Bitcoin ETFs became one of the fastest-growing product categories in US fund history, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone gathering tens of billions in assets.
This scale, combined with a steady shift in investor preferences, weakened the rationale for exclusion.
Vanguard 2024: “#Bitcoin isn’t a store of value. We’ll never offer ETFs.”
The policy shift follows more than a year of internal debate. Vanguard’s former CEO, Tim Buckley, was widely seen as the main opponent of crypto adoption.
His departure and the appointment of Salim Ramji — a former BlackRock executive with experience in blockchain initiatives — signaled a potential pivot.
Ramji did not push the firm toward issuing its own crypto funds but supported granting customers access to regulated products.
That move aligns crypto with Vanguard’s treatment of other non-core assets, such as gold ETFs.
Market Conditions Did Not Stop the Move
The reversal comes during a deep crypto drawdown and heavy ETF outflows since early October. Bitcoin’s market value has fallen sharply, and leveraged positions have suffered heavy losses.
Yet Vanguard said digital asset ETFs have continued to operate smoothly and maintain liquidity through volatile periods.
The firm noted that operational processes for servicing crypto products have matured since 2024. It added that its clients increasingly expect access to a wide range of asset classes through a single brokerage platform.
Vanguard *finally* caves…
Will now allow spot crypto ETF trading on brokerage platform.
Includes btc, eth, xrp, & sol ETFs.
However, Vanguard reiterates that they have *no* plans to launch own spot crypto ETFs.
Starting Tuesday, Vanguard customers can buy and sell most regulated crypto ETFs and crypto-focused mutual funds. The company will still screen products for compliance and will exclude any vehicle tied to SEC-defined memecoins.
Vanguard stressed that it has no plans to build proprietary crypto offerings.
Instead, it aims to accommodate diverse risk profiles while maintaining its conservative product philosophy.
The move is likely to strengthen digital asset legitimacy across traditional finance. It also marks a symbolic turning point for a firm long considered crypto’s most persistent holdout.
Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has shown a consistent four-year cycle. It’s driven by massive moves centered around Bitcoin’s halving, peaking with a blow-off top the next year.
Since the 2024 halving, Bitcoin prices have trended higher, but none of the signs of a speculative blow-off top have occurred in 2025, at least within the timeframe consistent with the four-year cycle.
Without that blow-off top, the rest of the crypto market has stalled out, since soaring Bitcoin prices tend to kick off altcoin season.
The history of Bitcoin bull market cycles has been a history of exponential decay. Agree with it or not, you will have to deal with it. Should the current decline carry to $50k, the next bull market cycle should carry to $200k to $250K pic.twitter.com/fFdgPPKvok
With Bitcoin prices down 30% from their early October highs, it’s clear that the four-year price cycle has lost its validity.
This is a sensible development, since BTC is rapidly maturing as an asset class. Rising institutional interest also means that Bitcoin’s cycles will more likely center around economic cycles.
One area where investors have noted a strong correlation with Bitcoin is with global liquidity:
Global Liquidity and Bitcoin Correlation. Source: ZeroHedge
Should that trend establish itself, Bitcoin could jump higher – and even kick off an altcoin season.
Michael Saylor recently called out the four-year cycle as “dead.” Saylor sees a massive repricing soon, which may explain his rush this year to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible.
However, liquidity isn’t the only factor.
Economic Activity
Some investors today are turning to the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).
The PMI measures manufacturing sector health and serves as an economic leading indicator.
When PMI is above 50, it suggests expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.
With the PMI cooling off again, Bitcoin’s macro fair value has slipped back to around $140k.
2025 has been a choppy year for BTC.
Hot money has been stampeding toward faster horses: AI, gold, small caps… pretty much anything except Bitcoin.
In theory, a strong PMI signals economic growth, which could influence Bitcoin through several channels:
Strong PMI → robust economy → risk-on sentiment → higher appetite for speculative assets like Bitcoin
Weak PMI → economic concerns → potential Fed easing → more liquidity → potentially supportive for Bitcoin
However, even tools like PMI fail to work as a one-stop indicator for Bitcoin and the crypto cycle.
Sometimes, Bitcoin trades as a “risk-on” asset (correlating positively with stocks and economic strength).
Other times, it trades as a “risk-off” hedge (like digital gold during uncertainty), and it will even move independently based on crypto-specific factors.
Data also shows that the correlations between Bitcoin and PMI are unstable and vary across different time periods.
United States ISM vs. Bitcoin
•ISM Manufacturing PMI: This monthly index measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. It is based on a survey of purchasing and supply executives across various industries and tracks factors such as new orders, production, employment,… https://t.co/W9wmN54Kx0pic.twitter.com/YS1Bm3zwBQ
Bitcoin often responds more strongly to monetary policy signals (Fed decisions, liquidity conditions) than to real economy indicators like PMI.
When PMI does seem to matter, it’s typically through the broader risk sentiment channel rather than a direct mechanistic relationship.
If you’re looking to use PMI as a Bitcoin trading signal, you’d likely find it less reliable than monitoring Fed policy, liquidity conditions, or crypto-native metrics. But a growing economy likely won’t hurt – as sometimes that can push Bitcoin higher even when monetary conditions are tightening.
Sentiment – The Factor that Can Drive Extremes
Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, lack traditional valuation anchors like earnings, dividends, or cash flows.
Without these fundamental metrics, price discovery relies heavily on what people believe the asset should be worth.
This creates space for sentiment to be the primary driver.
Studies of crypto market behavior consistently show that social media activity, search trends, and news sentiment have measurable predictive power for short-term price movements in ways that exceed their impact on traditional assets.
The crypto market also has structural features that amplify sentiment, including high retail participation (which leads to more emotional trading), 24/7 trading (with no circuit breakers to cool emotions), high leverage availability, and rapid information dissemination through crypto-native social channels.
Here’s where it gets complicated: what looks like “pure sentiment” often includes assessments of fundamental factors.
When investors get excited about institutional adoption news, is that sentiment or recognition of changing supply/demand fundamentals?
When macro concerns drive people toward Bitcoin as a hedge, sentiment is the transmission mechanism for macro factors.
During stable periods, you might see something like: 40% macro conditions (Fed policy, inflation, dollar strength), 30% supply/demand fundamentals (adoption metrics, on-chain activity, halving cycles), and 30% pure sentiment/speculation.
During euphoric bull runs or panic crashes, sentiment could dominate at 60-70%+, temporarily overriding both fundamentals and macro logic.
These are the periods where asset prices detach most dramatically from any rational valuation model. Investors who can recognize when sentiment is in control are best positioned to profit from those conditions.
Academic studies attempting to decompose crypto returns generally find that sentiment indicators explain 20-40% of price variance in normal conditions, but this can spike much higher during extreme market phases.
Notably, crypto markets show much stronger “momentum” and “herding” effects than traditional markets, which are often hallmarks of sentiment-driven trading.
The cryptocurrency market is probably best understood as fundamentally sentiment-driven in the short to medium term, with macro and supply/demand factors providing boundaries and direction over longer timeframes.
Bringing It Together
Clearly, there’s no one signal or trend for investors to look at to determine Bitcoin’s cycles.
An expanding economy should be bullish for Bitcoin prices. A contracting one shouldn’t be – unless there’s a massive infusion of liquidity in the system.
Individual indicators like global liquidity, credit market conditions, business conditions and market sentiment will all play a role.
Beyond Bitcoin, individual crypto projects working on real-world problems will rise or fall with their prospects.
Meme coins will rise and fall much faster – driven by the short-lived magic of memes themselves.
But bear in mind, even with Bitcoin moving beyond its four-year, retail-driven cycle, the fundamental concept remains intact.
As Bitwise CIO Matt Houghton recently noted:
“The reason bitcoin’s price is up ~28,000% over the last ten years is that more and more people want the ability to store digital wealth in a way that isn’t intermediated by a company or a government.”
And when Bitcoin takes off again, the altcoins will follow.
Tokenized gold is gaining momentum as geopolitical uncertainty and rising gold prices weaken trust in fiat-backed assets. Major institutions and sovereign actors are launching or expanding gold-backed tokens.
This shift suggests tokenized gold may soon move beyond its niche role amd become a credible next-generation, stable, and globally usable digital value.
A Five-Year Flight to Safety
The turbulence of the past few months has reinforced the role of gold as a safe-haven asset. It was only two months ago that the metal’s price hit a record, surpassing $4,000 per ounce.
This isn’t only a recent phenomenon. Between 2020 and 2025, the price of gold more than doubled, reflecting a wider flight to safety as global markets confronted a pandemic, inflation, wars, sanctions, and persistent geopolitical tensions.
The price of gold over the past five years. Source: Gold Price.
At the same time, advances in blockchain technology have transformed the use of gold. Tokenization, instant settlement, and 24/7 global liquidity now make a traditionally static asset far more flexible in digital form.
Last month, Swiss metals giant MKS PAMP, one of the world’s largest gold refiners and a major supplier of precious metals to global markets, relaunched DGLD, a gold-backed token designed for institutional investors.
In the crypto space, Tether Gold (XAUt) continues to see steady growth. Pax Gold (PAXG), launched by New York–regulated blockchain firm Paxos, is also expanding. Together, their market caps now exceed $3 billion, making them the most widely used gold-backed digital assets available to the public.
Traditional banking players are also testing the waters. HSBC, one of the largest multinational banks and a major custodian of physical gold through its London vaults, is experimenting with its own gold token for clients.
While these digital gold products are still relatively small compared to the market value of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), their expansion signals a growing confidence that blockchain-based gold is becoming a credible financial instrument.
In fact, the movement is not even limited to the private sector.
In November, Kyrgyzstan launched USDKG, the first gold-backed stablecoin pegged to the US dollar. Backed by the country’s national gold reserves, it offers a sanction-resistant tool for cross-border payments and trade. Kyrgyzstan’s approach could also encourage other, larger nations to follow suit.
Still, some challenges remain.
Regulators Stay Wary
Gold-backed tokens still have no clear industry standard, which makes it harder for users to compare their reliability.
Transparency also varies. Some issuers publish regular third-party audits, while others offer limited details about their vaults or redemption processes. Regulations differ widely across countries, adding another layer of uncertainty for consumers and businesses.
These gaps explain why many governments remain cautious.
Officials worry that freely circulating gold-backed assets could weaken confidence in national currencies and complicate monetary policy. They also fear that digital gold could facilitate the movement of money outside traditional banking controls.
Even so, momentum is unmistakable.
If clearer rules and rising geopolitical pressures push the industry forward, tokenized gold could move from the margins to become a core pillar of stable, globally usable digital money.
Washington state regulators have ordered CoinMe to halt all money-transfer activity after accusing the crypto ATM operator of treating more than $8 million in customer funds as its own revenue.
The Department of Financial Institutions (DFI) issued an emergency cease-and-desist order on December 1, citing “unsafe and unsound practices.”
Regulator Flags Misuse of Customer Money
DFI said CoinMe failed to safeguard money that consumers paid for crypto vouchers. Instead, the company allegedly counted unclaimed or expired voucher balances as income.
According to the filing, customers bought vouchers at CoinMe kiosks but never redeemed them. Washington law requires companies to hold those funds as consumer property or turn them over as unclaimed assets.
However, DFI says CoinMe treated the balances as corporate revenue. The regulator argues this harmed consumers and distorted the company’s financial condition.
Because of these findings, DFI ordered CoinMe to stop all money-transfer and kiosk-related operations in the state. The company cannot accept new funds from Washington consumers under the order.
Officials also said they will seek restitution for affected customers. The agency signaled plans to revoke CoinMe’s state money-transmitter license.
The cease-and-desist order lists several other violations. These include failing to maintain required net worth, keeping inaccurate records, and submitting incorrect filings.
DFI also noted that some CoinMe vouchers displayed a support phone number that no longer worked. The regulator said this contributed to poor consumer protection.
A Significant Blow to a Major Cash-to-Crypto ATM Network
This action marks one of the most serious state enforcement moves against a US crypto ATM operator. CoinMe operates one of the largest cash-to-crypto networks in the country.
The case highlights growing scrutiny of crypto on-ramps that handle physical cash. Regulators expect these companies to follow the same standards as traditional money-transmitters.
CoinMe can contest the order, but Washington regulators appear prepared to escalate the case. If the state revokes the company’s license, CoinMe will lose the ability to operate any money-transfer service in Washington.
Meanwhile, DFI urged affected customers to prepare claims for potential refunds. The agency’s priority, it said, is protecting consumers who rely on licensed firms to securely handle their money.
MicroStrategy suffered a catastrophic start to December as its market cap briefly fell below the net value of its Bitcoin holdings, exposing the company to renewed concerns about leverage, liquidity, and investor confidence.
Shares collapsed early Monday, dropping to $156, which pushed MicroStrategy’s valuation to $45 billion.
Wall Street Nightmare For MicroStrategy?
The company currently holds 650,000 BTC worth roughly $55.2 billion, making this drop a rare moment where Wall Street valued the business at less than its underlying assets.
However, MicroStrategy also carries $8.2 billion in debt. After subtracting that debt and adding the firm’s $1.4 billion cash reserve, the company still holds about $48.4 billion in net Bitcoin value.
This means the stock fell $3.4 billion below its Bitcoin-adjusted worth at the session low.
The disconnect shocked traders. MicroStrategy normally trades at a premium because markets price in Michael Saylor’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy, future BTC purchases, and the stock’s role as a regulated Bitcoin proxy.
A) Bitcoin price would crash if Saylor sold. And there’s not enough liquidity to exit the position. He is the liquidity. Institutions have been net sellers.
B) Debt isn’t free. There’s regular interest payments. Therefore he must sell more shares in perpetuity. pic.twitter.com/fsChvN4DHW
By midday, the company’s mNAV ratio—which measures how far the stock trades above or below Bitcoin net asset value—recovered to 1.16, far below the levels seen earlier in 2025.
The reading shows the market now values MicroStrategy only 16% above its Bitcoin holdings, compared with premiums exceeding 50% during the year’s rally.
The decline coincided with tightening liquidity, falling ETF inflows, and an industry-wide reset in risk appetite.
Concerns about Saylor’s long-term strategy also resurfaced. Critics argue the company’s debt must be serviced regardless of Bitcoin’s performance, increasing pressure to raise new capital or sell more shares.
Others warn that MicroStrategy’s position is now so large that Saylor cannot reduce risk without destabilizing the market.
Still, the company remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world, and its holdings continue to exceed its market cap.
MSTR Stock Price Chart On December 1. Source: Google Finance
The rebound later in the day shows investors are not abandoning the stock, but they are reassessing the risks more aggressively than at any point this year.
MicroStrategy begins December with its tightest valuation gap in years, signaling a turning point in how markets view the company’s leveraged Bitcoin strategy.
Whether this marks a temporary panic or the start of a deeper correction will depend on Bitcoin’s stability and the company’s next moves.
Two major economies are tightening control over digital currencies just as the US pushes to cement its leadership in the stablecoin sector. Israel is accelerating its digital shekel plans while China continues to expand the digital yuan.
These moves signal a broader global shift toward sovereign digital money that could challenge the reach and influence of US dollar–based stablecoins.
Israel Tightens Rules, Advances Digital Shekel
Stablecoins have become a central pillar of the digital asset market, moving well beyond their early role as a trading convenience.
The sector now processes more than $2 trillion in monthly volume and holds a market cap above $310 billion, almost all of it in dollars. That growth has prompted private companies to assume a leading role in operating key components of global payment infrastructure.
As their influence expands, governments are stepping back in. Many are introducing new rules aimed at limiting the reach of USD-linked tokens.
During a recent conference in Tel Aviv, Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron stated that the country is preparing to implement much stricter oversight of stablecoins, citing growing concerns over the sector’s concentration.
With most activity dominated by Tether and Circle, he warned that any issue with their reserves or backing could spill into the wider financial system.
Yaron also noted that stablecoins are now so embedded in global money flows that they can no longer be treated as a niche market, adding that the sector’s scale already rivals that of a mid-tier international bank.
The Bank of Israel recently published a detailed design document outlining user journeys, technical architecture, and key policy considerations. Officials say the project aims to strengthen the country’s payment infrastructure and reduce reliance on private digital assets.
As Israel builds its regulatory and technological framework, China is taking a far more forceful path.
Beijing Shuts Out Stablecoin Influence
China’s central bank has doubled down on its broad crypto ban, working with different government bodies to target stablecoin activity and close remaining loopholes. Officials say digital assets fuel money laundering and capital flight, and they stress that these tokens carry no legal currency status.
According to Ledger Insights, the People’s Bank of China recently reported that e-CNY transaction volumes nearly doubled in the past 14 months, reaching $2 trillion by September.
Pilot programs are now operational across major cities, public-sector payment systems, and select commercial routes. This push is embedding the state-issued currency deeper into daily financial activity.
🇨🇳 People's Bank of China announces full integration of its digital cross-border system with ten ASEAN countries and six Middle Eastern countries
This will significantly increase global trade through digital yuan. Many experts believe that figures of up to 38% will be achieved,… pic.twitter.com/bagM1owks8
By walling off stablecoins and accelerating the digital yuan, China aims to cut dependence on foreign currency rails, especially those tied to the US dollar. The strategy also helps preserve tight control over data, capital flows, and payment infrastructure.
Together with Israel’s more measured but still sovereignty-driven approach, China’s escalation highlights a clear global shift.
Major economies are no longer willing to let USD stablecoins define the future of payments. Many are now building or enforcing their own digital systems and challenging the US’s ambitions for stablecoin dominance.
The XRP Ledger recorded an abnormal surge in AccountSet and AMM Bid transactions this week, triggering widespread discussion across crypto Twitter. The ledger processed more than 40,000 AccountSet transactions in late November, marking its highest configuration activity in years.
The activity continued even after BitGo ended its batch updates. This indicates new actors are preparing or reconfiguring large numbers of accounts, rather than routine custodial adjustments.
What the AccountSet Surge Indicates
AccountSet transactions update settings, including security flags, AMM (Automated Market Maker) permissions, and multi-sig configurations. They are typically used when institutions prepare accounts for new services or liquidity operations.
Someone is doing a lot of AccountSet TXs on the XRP Ledger recently. Even after BitGo stopped. pic.twitter.com/rhdYGqFzLr
Therefore, a spike of this magnitude suggests structured onboarding. Analysts believe this may involve custodians, market makers, or automated systems configuring XRPL accounts at scale.
The pattern resembles network preparation rather than retail behavior.
Previous spikes linked to custodial maintenance did not reach current levels, reinforcing the view that new participants are entering the network.
🚨 Something’s happening on the XRP Ledger.
According to XRPL Metrics, activity just exploded: 📈 Over 40,000 “AccountSet” transactions, the highest in years. 💧 A sharp spike in AMM bids right after November 23. Imo, it’s network preparation.
AMM Bid Activity Signals Liquidity Positioning in XRP
AMM Bid transactions also surged after November 23. These transactions help liquidity providers bid for AMM auction slots and position themselves within XRPL’s automated market-maker pools.
The sharp rise suggests liquidity actors are preparing to secure early positions. Early bids often capture the most profitable rewards, making the timing significant.
The AMM spike coincides with broader XRPL developments. RLUSD approvals, AMM rollout progress, and institutional onboarding have all accelerated in recent weeks. This offers a possible explanation for the sudden liquidity movement.
PODCAST: Tokenization is just step one, now what do we do with the assets?@RippleXDev's Jasmine Cooper explains why the next wave for the XRP Ledger is on-chain collateral management, repos and credit origination turning RWAs into real value for institutions. pic.twitter.com/S2MTJ0j7pm
The surge also follows the debut of spot XRP ETFs in the United States. The products accumulated $643.92 million in net inflows and reached $676.49 million in total ETF assets.
Inflows increased on nine of the last ten sessions, showing strong institutional demand.
While ETF inflows do not directly interact with the XRP Ledger, they influence how custodians manage XRP storage and security.
Large ETF demand can trigger new institutional custody accounts, reconfigured storage systems, expanded wallet infrastructure, and preparation for higher settlement activity. These processes often involve AccountSet transactions.
Therefore, the ETF wave may be indirectly contributing to the configuration spike.
Spot XRP ETF Performance in November 2025. Source: SoSoValue
Implications for the Market
The combined surge in configuration and AMM activity signals structural preparation beneath the XRP ecosystem. This type of activity often precedes network upgrades, liquidity expansion, or new institutional pipelines.
Although XRP price remains volatile, the ledger’s data suggests increasing backend activity. Market watchers view the patterns as early indicators of broader engagement, rather than isolated anomalies.
some fun tinkering this weekend!
a cool visualisation of live transactions on the xrp ledger.
Bitcoin is trading under pressure this week after falling to $86,000, driven by bearish macroeconomic cues and weaker risk appetite.
The decline is raising concern among analysts because it coincides with an important shift in profitability among short-term holders, who are seeing their first meaningful profits since February 2023.
Bitcoin Holders Could Sell
The MVRV Long/Short Difference has slipped into negative territory for the first time in nearly three years. This shift signals that short-term holders now hold more unrealized profit than long-term holders, a rare dynamic that last appeared in early 2023. Historically, such periods lead to heightened selling because short-term investors tend to exit positions quickly when they see profit.
This trend is concerning for Bitcoin’s price outlook. With BTC already under a month-long downtrend, any spike in short-term selling could intensify the decline. The metric’s drop reflects rising fragility in market sentiment and hints at a potential acceleration of downward momentum if conditions fail to improve.
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Broader macro momentum is also flashing warning signs. Bitcoin’s NVT Ratio has surged, showing the network is becoming overheated. The ratio compares the dollar value of network activity with transaction volume. A high reading indicates strong social enthusiasm but weak on-chain usage, a combination that often precedes corrective moves.
This imbalance suggests Bitcoin’s current valuation may not be supported by underlying activity. If the divergence persists, a market correction could follow to bring the ratio back to healthier levels. This adds pressure to the already fragile short-term outlook.
Bitcoin is trading at $86,005, holding just above the $85,204 support level. The asset remains trapped under a persistent downtrend that has lasted more than a month. This would prevent any sustained recovery attempts.
If market conditions worsen or short-term holder selling accelerates, Bitcoin could break below $85,204. A drop through this support would expose the price to $82,503 and potentially deepen losses as fear rises across the market.
However, if buyers step in and support strengthens, Bitcoin could reclaim upward momentum. A bounce from current levels could send BTC toward $89,800. A decisive move above that resistance would be essential for Bitcoin to retest $90,000 and invalidate the bearish thesis.
As the final month of the year begins, the focus now shifts to profits. However, the beginning of December has been rather unpleasant, given that over $162 billion was wiped out of the crypto market today. However, some altcoins have managed to continue their rise.
BeInCrypto has analysed three such altcoins that could be looking at new all-time highs in the coming week.
Rain (RAIN)
RAIN is trading at $0.0080, placing it just 7% below its all-time high of $0.0086. The altcoin remains one of the strongest performers, holding close to record levels despite broader market volatility.
For RAIN to reach a new ATH, it must secure $0.0079 as solid support. A successful bounce from this level could drive the price toward $0.0100, signaling renewed bullish momentum and heightened investor confidence.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
If investors take profits early, RAIN could lose momentum and fall toward the $0.0067 support level. A drop below this threshold would invalidate the bullish outlook and delay any attempt at setting new highs.
Monero (XMR)
XMR is trading at $412, holding just below the $417 resistance level. The privacy-focused altcoin sits relatively close to its all-time high of $471, keeping bullish expectations alive despite broader market uncertainty.
Reaching the ATH would require only a 14% increase, supported by investor demand and a decisive flip of the $450 resistance into support. The Ichimoku Cloud currently signals intact bullish momentum, suggesting XMR may attempt another upward move if market conditions cooperate.
If investors take profits or broader sentiment weakens, XMR could face renewed selling pressure. A breakdown from current levels may send the price toward $364, which would invalidate the bullish outlook and delay any attempt at retesting the all-time high.
Undead Games (UDS)
UDS is trading at $2.97, sitting just below the key $3.00 resistance level. This psychological barrier must be flipped into support for the altcoin to maintain its upward trajectory and strengthen its short-term recovery outlook.
The ATH sits 16% higher at $3.44, and current indicators support a move toward it. The Parabolic SAR remains below the candlesticks, signaling an active uptrend. If UDS secures $3.20 as support, the momentum could drive a breakout toward new highs.
If selling pressure emerges, UDS could retrace to the $2.73 support level. A breakdown below this zone would weaken the bullish structure and potentially send the price toward $2.59 or lower, invalidating the bullish thesis entirely.
Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee, because today’s story is not what it first appears to be. MicroStrategy’s new $1.44 billion cash wall has sparked more questions than answers, landing at a moment when markets feel unusually tense, and every move seems to hint at something deeper beneath the surface.
Crypto News of the Day: MicroStrategy Builds USD Reserve as Market Panic Tests Saylor’s Bitcoin Doctrine
MicroStrategy’s latest move was supposed to calm nerves. Instead, it has become the new focal point of a market gripped by fear, speculation, and a fast-approaching liquidity stress test.
On Monday, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) confirmed it has established a $1.44 billion USD Reserve. This cash buffer is designed to cover dividends and interest for up to 21 months.
Strategy chair Michael Saylor also revealed that the firm has added 130 BTC to its already massive treasury.
“Strategy has acquired 130 BTC for ~$11.7 million at ~$89,960 per bitcoin. As of 11/30/2025, we hodl 650,000 BTC acquired for ~$48.38 billion at ~$74,436 per bitcoin,” Saylor indicated.
The announcement arrived barely a day after traders obsessively dissected Michael Saylor’s cryptic “green dot” comments. Speculation ranged from an MSTR buy to the firm adding to its BTC stockpile.
BREAKING: MicroStrategy establishes a $1.44B USD reserve for dividend payments.
The new purchase brings the company’s holdings to 650,000 BTC, or roughly 3.1% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.
A Cash Reserve—Or a Warning Sign?
The company framed the USD Reserve as a strategic evolution. Saylor called it “the next step in our evolution” and essential for facing near-term volatility.
“…the reserve currently covers 21 months of Dividends. We intend to use this reserve to pay our Dividends and grow it over time,” Strategy CEO Phong Le indicated.
However, these remarks did not bring stability, but rather stress, coming after the MicroStrategy executive admitted to a scenario once considered unthinkable: a potential sale of Bitcoin.
In a recent interview, CEO Phong Le acknowledged a “kill switch” tied to two conditions:
MicroStrategy’s stock trades below 1.0x mNAV—meaning the company is valued at less than the Bitcoin it owns.
The firm cannot raise capital through equity or debt.
As of this writing, mNAV sits above 1x, pulling away from the 0.9x danger zone, below which, MicroStrategy could be pushed toward BTC-funded dividend obligations.
Markets are already on edge, with Jim Cramer, cited in a recent US Crypto News publication, issuing a warning.
“This kneejerk, somewhat vicious, decline smacks of anticipation of hedge funds blowing up over the Japan carry-trade… and Strategy/Bitcoin given that at this level they are almost the same thing,” wrote Cramer.
The line “almost the same thing” captures the structural shift: MicroStrategy has functionally become a leveraged Bitcoin ETF with a software company attached. That structure works spectacularly when Bitcoin rips higher, but compresses violently when liquidity tightens.
And liquidity is tightening fast.
MicroStrategy insists it faces no forced liquidation risk. However, the admission of a sale condition, combined with a $1.44 billion cash wall, marks a turning point.
Where Saylor once said, “We will never sell Bitcoin,” investors now have a measurable tripwire: 0.9× mNAV.
Bitcoin’s next move won’t just shape market sentiment; it may decide whether MicroStrategy remains the face of corporate Bitcoin accumulation or becomes the first high-profile test of its limits.
HBAR price is down about 6% in the past 24 hours, underperforming an already weak crypto market. Even with this pressure, the chart is flashing a rare mix of three early rebound clues that most mid-caps are not showing right now.
If the broader market steadies, HBAR could be one of the first to move, especially if it protects a key support level discussed later.
Accumulation Signs Build Beneath the Decline
HBAR has moved inside a broad falling wedge since early September. This pattern often turns bullish when sellers lose control near the lower boundary, and that shift first appeared around November 21.
The first clue comes from the changing volume behavior. HBAR’s activity follows a Wyckoff-style color pattern: red shows sellers in control, yellow shows sellers gaining control, blue marks buyers gaining control, and green shows buyers fully in control.
Since HBAR peaked at $0.155 on November 23 and fell nearly 15%, the bars have shifted from heavy red to a blend of yellow and blue. That blend is a classic sign of seller exhaustion and early tug-of-war. The last time this mix showed up — between October 15 and October 28 — HBAR climbed 41% right after.
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A second clue appears in the MFI (Money Flow Index), which tracks buying and selling pressure using both price and volume. Between November 23 and December 1, the HBAR price kept making lower highs while MFI made higher highs. That divergence shows dips are being quietly bought. A similar divergence formed between October 6 and October 24 and led to a 33% jump once it completed.
The third clue comes from steady spot ETF demand. The Canary HBAR Spot ETF has posted positive weekly inflows in four of the last five weeks, with more than $80 million in cumulative inflows. Inflows are smaller than late October, but they remain positive even as price falls — meaning broader demand has not vanished.
Together, these three clues — shifting volume control, dip-buying pressure, and ongoing ETF inflows — show early accumulation forming beneath the surface.
Key HBAR Price Levels Decide Whether the Rebound Can Hold
The wedge’s lower boundary near $0.122 is the most important support for HBAR right now. Holding that area keeps the rebound case alive. Losing it exposes the next major zone near $0.079, which would flip the structure from “early accumulation” to a deeper slide.
For strength, HBAR needs to reclaim $0.140 first, a 5% rebound from the current level. That would show that buyers are finally overpowering the sell-side pressure. If $0.140 breaks, the next major level sits at $0.155. Clearing $0.155 opens the path toward $0.169 and even $0.182 if the crypto market improves.
In today’s markets, uncertainty has become the new normal, putting pressure on traders and investors alike. Changing tariffs, shifting monetary policies, and persistent tensions are weighing on sentiment and dampening global growth. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expects global growth to decline to 2.3%, just 0.2 percentage points above the threshold for a global recession.
But beneath it all lies another enduring threat: inflation. Even as numbers improve, its effects continue to ripple through asset prices, investor behavior, and risk perceptions. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global inflation is projected to fall to 4.2%, down from 5.9% in 2024 and 6.8% in 2023. On paper, this is progress, but it’s nowhere near the levels it considers healthy.
For traders and investors, this means that while inflation may no longer dominate headlines, its presence will still define the landscape. Still shaping where capital flows, how portfolios are hedged, and which assets emerge as safe havens. And this is why many are now asking: Could crypto be emerging as the next inflation hedge, challenging the long-standing dominance of traditional safe havens?
Cryptos as Gold’s Challenger
Safe havens tend to perform reasonably well during recessions, and for decades, gold has been the default refuge, an anchor during economic storms. In recent years, bitcoin has emerged as its digital challenger, often described as “digital gold.” But that comparison might not be entirely grounded in reality. Let’s take a closer look.
On the surface, they seem alike, sharing certain traits: they are both scarce, speculative, and finite. Both are used in a limited capacity for transactions, influenced by demand, and dependent on third parties such as miners for supply. Yet, their behavior tells a different story.
Although cryptocurrencies tend to behave similarly to traditional assets during inflation, i.e., lose value, they behave differently when policy uncertainty is added to the equation. During past geopolitical instability, we have seen the market treat certain cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin, as safe havens. The reason behind this phenomenon is that cryptocurrencies are decoupled from government policy and currency manipulation, giving them an independent appeal during institutional mistrust.
This isn’t theoretical. Bitcoin rallied before and after the 2016 US elections, during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, and at other global events when confidence in traditional systems wavered. The question then isn’t whether bitcoin can move during uncertain times, but whether it can protect.
Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven?
A study by Sangyup Choi and Junhyeok Shin of Yonsei University’s School of Economics found that while bitcoin tends to depreciate during periods of financial uncertainty, it rises in value during times of policy uncertainty, precisely because it operates independently of governments and central banks.
We are now in such a period, one defined by both geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies. In these conditions, investors often diversify across assets that aren’t directly tied to fiscal or monetary decisions. This is where bitcoin’s appeal lies: it represents freedom from institutional control, a self-contained system that functions outside the traditional policy loop.
Another study highlights the fact that it may be a strong hedge for oil, the US dollar, EU indices, and ETFs. It also suggests that the correlation between gold, bitcoin, and US indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 may indicate that investors are also starting to view the cryptocurrency as a safe haven.
Still, there is an important caveat. Cryptocurrencies remain inherently volatile, and bitcoin’s short history means its safe-haven status is conditional, not guaranteed. Gold, by contrast, has earned its reputation over centuries. For risk-averse traders, gold still offers stability, while bitcoin, with its asymmetric upside, may serve as a diversification tool rather than a replacement.
Hedging With Exness
A hedge is only as effective as the conditions that power it. In periods of volatility or uncertainty, when CFD traders turn to instruments like gold or bitcoin CFDs to manage exposure, execution quality becomes critical. In those decisive moments, it’s the trading conditions that determine whether your strategy holds or breaks.
Exness provides CFD traders better-than-market conditions, meaning spreads, execution, and withdrawals that outperform what’s typically available to market participants. Its proprietary engine ensures precise execution, even during high-impact news,1 when traders need to rely on it the most for their hedge.
Price transparency and stable spreads also play a critical role. With its stable spreads on BTCUSD, which are four times lower than the industry average,2and the best spreads on XAUUSD,3Exness ensures that both digital and traditional hedges, like gold and bitcoin, work as intended.
The experience extends beyond the time markets are open. Exness has been offering the fastest withdrawals since 2009, and today, 98% of withdrawals are processed automatically.4
In essence, hedging with Exness means hedging with more control. CFD traders can execute, manage, and withdraw with the same confidence that drives their strategies, no matter how turbulent the markets become.
1Precise execution claims refer to average slippage rates on pending orders based on data collected between September 2024 and July 2025 for XAUUSD, USOIL, and BTC CFDs on the Exness Standard account vs similar accounts offered by four other brokers. Delays and slippage may occur. No guarantee of execution speed or precision is provided.
2 4x more stable spreads claim refers to maximum BTCUSD CFDs spreads on the Exness Pro account, based on data collected from 12 to 25 May 2025, compared with average maximum BTCUSD CFDs spreads across the tightest commission-free accounts offered by eight other brokers.
3Best spread claims refer to the lowest maximum spreads and the tightest average spreads on the Exness Pro account, for XAUUSD and USOIL, based on data collected from 12-25 May 2025, when compared to the corresponding spreads across commission-free accounts of other brokers.
4At Exness, over 98% of withdrawals are processed automatically. Processing times may vary depending on the chosen payment method.
Crypto markets sold off sharply after Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surged to its highest level since 2008. The move triggered a wave of global de-risking and one of the largest liquidation events in weeks.
The move erased billions of dollars in digital-asset value, highlighting just how exposed crypto remains to macroeconomic liquidity shifts far outside its own ecosystem.
Japan’s Yield Spike: The Yen Carry Trade Unwinds and Crypto Feels It First
The total crypto market cap declined by approximately 5% over the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices falling by more than 5%.
The prevailing sentiment is that the yield breakout is more than just a technical move. It signals that the decades-long yen carry trade may finally be unwinding.
For nearly 30 years, Japan’s near-zero interest rates allowed investors to borrow cheaply in yen and deploy capital into higher-yielding assets abroad. Such avenues include:
US Treasuries
European bonds
Risk assets like equities and crypto.
Rising yields in Japan threaten to reverse this flow, pulling capital back home and tightening liquidity globally.
“For 30 years, the Yen Carry Trade subsidized global arrogance — zero rates… free leverage… fake growth… entire economies built on borrowed time and borrowed money. Now Japan has reversed the switch. Rates climbed. Yen strengthened. And the world’s favourite ATM just turned into a debt-collector,” wrote data scientist ViPiN on X (Twitter).
When Japanese yields rise, global liquidity contracts, leading to a repricing across the market. This likely explains why Silver (XAG) has not yet experienced its Supercycle, and Bitcoin is dealing with late-cycle volatility.
“Japan is draining liquidity, Bitcoin is absorbing the shock, and Silver is preparing for the repricing of a lifetime,” stated one analyst in a post.
Crypto’s Sell-Off Isn’t Local, It’s a Macro Liquidity Crunch
Shanaka Anslem, an ideologist and popular user on X (Twitter), described the JGB breakout as “the chart that should terrify every portfolio manager.
THE CHART THAT SHOULD TERRIFY EVERY PORTFOLIO MANAGER ON EARTH
Japan’s 10 Year Government Bond Yield just hit 1.84%.
The strategist, who has reportedly witnessed infrastructural breakdowns, currency shocks, and state-level crises, cited:
Inflation above 3%,
Higher wage growth, and
A Bank of Japan that is increasingly losing its ability to suppress yields.
These forces are pushing Japan into a structural shift away from the ultra-loose monetary regime that defined global markets for decades.
“When Japan raises rates, it sucks liquidity out of the global system. The “fuel” that powered the stock market rally is being drained. We can expect volatility in high-growth stocks as this “cheap money” era ends,” added another investor in a post.
Meanwhile, China, historically one of the largest foreign buyers of US Treasuries, has slowed its accumulation. With Japan now under pressure to repatriate capital, two of America’s most important external funding sources are simultaneously stepping back.
“When the world’s creditor nations stop funding the world’s debtor nations at artificially suppressed rates, the entire post-2008 financial architecture must reprice. Every duration bet. Every leveraged position. Every assumption about perpetually falling rates. This is not a Japanese story. This is the global story. The 30-year bond bull market ended. Most just have not realized it yet,” Shanaka articulated.
Crypto, as one of the highest-beta corners of global markets, tends to react first when liquidity tightens. The scale of the liquidations suggests that leveraged traders were caught offside by the bond volatility, forcing rapid position unwinds across major assets.
Rather than a crypto-specific meltdown, the sell-off reflects a broad revaluation of duration, leverage, and risk as global bond markets reset.
Therefore, traders should probably watch Japan’s bond market as closely as they watch Bitcoin charts. If JGB yields continue to rise, it could tighten global liquidity through the end of the year.
While the broader crypto market flashed red in early December, a Solana-based meme coin called PIPPIN delivered a remarkable countertrend rally.
Its rapid price surge enabled several traders to achieve massive short-term profits. However, it also raised concerns about a potential sharp correction that could hurt latecomers.
How One Trader Made More Than $1.3 Million With PIPPIN
Unlike many other meme tokens, the project’s developers promised to release open-source tools with potential applications for PIPPIN, including interactive tutoring systems, AI marketing assistants, and personality-driven DevOps bots capable of writing and deploying code.
Despite its high-risk meme-coin nature, PIPPIN has become one of the most talked-about names in Solana’s meme wave at the end of 2025.
According to data from BeInCrypto, the token has experienced a surge of over 400% in the past month and is currently trading at $0.139. When comparing the low in November ($0.02) to the recent high ($0.20), the token has increased tenfold. Additionally, the daily trading volume has surpassed $120 million, a significant rise from under $10 million in November.
This rally has put one early buyer on enormous unrealized profits. According to market-tracking account LookOnChain, a wallet named BxNU5a was created about a month ago. The wallet spent $179,800 to acquire 8.2 million PIPPIN tokens. The current value of this stash is approximately $1.51 million, resulting in an unrealized gain of more than $1.35 million.
A month ago, someone created a new wallet, BxNU5a, and spent $179.8K to buy 8.2M $pippin($1.51M now).
Nansen also reported strong whale accumulation and a sharp increase in the number of active wallets, signaling a wave of new investors pouring money into the token.
“PIPPIN didn’t just ‘go up,’ it detonated. 437% in 7 days with $43.9M volume is a different tempo. Whales added +6.6M, fresh wallets put in +11M, and exchanges saw sharp outflows,” — Nansen reported.
These bullish signals have fueled hopes that PIPPIN could become the next standout in the Solana meme-coin ecosystem. Recent reports also highlight potential reasons why the meme-coin wave may return in December.
Warning Signs Emerge
Despite the explosive rally, significant risks have also surfaced. The first warning concerns PIPPIN’s short positions suffering heavy liquidations.
Data from Coinglass shows a series of short positions being wiped out during the last week of November. The heaviest liquidation day occurred on December 1.
Coinglass reported more than $15 million in liquidations on December 1 alone, with over $11 million coming from short positions.
On-chain signals are also flashing caution. According to Solscan, even as the price soared, real on-chain trading volume decreased by 45% compared to the previous week.
Traders are executing fewer transactions on-chain and shifting more activity to exchanges. This divergence could signal a sharp decline if increasing amounts of PIPPIN are sold on centralized platforms.
Well-known analyst Altcoin Sherpa compared PIPPIN to other meme tokens, such as AVA, GRIFFAIN, and ACT, predicting that prices may drop significantly soon.
“With PIPPIN moving, some of these other AI shitters are also going. AVA, GRIFFAIN, ACT. Hard to honestly trade them though, and these are probably just 24-hour pump-and-dumps for most of them. Unlikely to be a sustained pump,” — Altcoin Sherpa said.
PIPPIN’s market cap previously reached over $300 million late last year before collapsing to $8 million, which adds to investor skepticism about another potential steep dump.
Another analyst described PIPPIN’s rally as a familiar pattern: a small group accumulates heavily and withholds supply, creating buy pressure that pushes the price up. Short positions are then liquidated, the price drops afterward, and the cycle repeats.
Zcash is down about 21% in the past 24 hours and has now extended its seven-day loss to almost 33%. The monthly trend has also flipped negative. Even then, the broader three-month Zcash price gain still sits above 780%, which shows how strong the previous rally was.
Right now, Zcash is trading inside a bullish pattern that has guided every major move since September. The price has just touched the lower trend line of this channel. This is the last strong support that keeps the long-term uptrend alive. Two internal metrics hint that the selling pressure may be fading, but ZEC must protect that critical line for any recovery.
Momentum Weakens, but Pressure May Be Easing
The first clue comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI measures momentum on a 0–100 scale. Between September 27 and December 1, the price formed a higher low, while RSI formed a lower low. This is hidden bullish divergence and often appears near exhaustion points.
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The second clue comes from CMF (Chaikin Money Flow), which tracks whether big-money flows are entering or exiting the market.
CMF had been falling since November 6, the same period when the price corrected sharply. CMF slipped below zero on November 24 for the first time since late October, and that drop aligned with heavier selling. But CMF has now curled up and is heading back toward the zero line.
That matters because CMF is also showing a small divergence. Between November 27 and December 1, the price made a lower high while CMF made a higher high. When CMF is turning up while the price falls, it suggests large buyers may be preparing to re-enter. If CMF breaks above zero and moves past the descending trend line drawn across recent lower highs, ZEC could see momentum shift back in its favor.
Both signals only matter if the lower channel support of the channel continues to hold.
Correlation Shift and Key Zcash Price Levels That Decide the Trend
Zcash’s earlier rally was helped by its weak or slightly negative correlation with Bitcoin. Over the past year, the BTC–ZEC correlation sits near –0.05. This helped ZEC outperform during Bitcoin weakness.
But in the past seven days, the correlation has turned mildly positive at 0.48. It is still weaker than most major coins, meaning ZEC can still move differently, but it also means Bitcoin’s drop has pulled ZEC down harder in the short term.
Because of this shift, the price levels now matter even more:
ZEC is sitting just above $348, the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A daily close below $348 breaks the trend line and opens a move toward $309. If $309 fails, the next major support sits at $230, where buyers previously stepped in strongly.
For the Zcash price to regain strength, it must reclaim $592, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci level. That move would require a rebound of about 63.9% from current levels — large, but not unusual for ZEC given its past swings.
If CMF keeps turning up and the long-term negative BTC correlation plays out, Zcash could still protect the channel and extend the broader uptrend. But losing $348 flips the entire structure and ends the bullish case at least for now.
The first week of December 2025 features critical US economic events that will influence monetary policy expectations and Bitcoin’s direction, as traders prepare for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) actions.
Bitcoin investors face a pivotal week as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on December 1, coinciding with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT). With odds of a rate cut in December now at 86%, significant volatility is expected across risk assets.
Powell’s Speech and End of QT
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to address markets on Monday, December 1, at 8:00 pm ET. This date marks not just his highly anticipated speech but also the official end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program, an important policy shift announced by the FOMC in October.
“The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1,” read an excerpt in the Fed’s October 29 statement.
This decision reflects the presence of ample reserves in the banking system. Powell’s remarks come amid speculation about possible changes in Fed leadership, introducing another layer of market uncertainty.
🚨 BREAKING:
JEROME POWELL WILL GIVE A SPEECH ON DECEMBER 1ST AND QT ENDS THE SAME DAY.
RATE CUT ODDS FOR DECEMBER HAVE NOW SURGED TO 86%.
Because Powell’s speech takes place just before the Fed’s blackout period ahead of the December policy meeting, it is likely to have outsized importance.
Any hints regarding future rates could trigger immediate market reactions. Ending quantitative tightening signals a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy, possibly increasing dollar liquidity.
This speculation may boost volatility, as markets weigh the prospect of a new chair who could push for faster rate cuts.
Probabilities of Fed Chair Jerome Powell Replacement Prospects. Source: Kalshi
ADP Employment
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP), the largest payroll processor in the US, is set to release the ADP Employment Change report for November, which measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US, at 8:15 am ET on Wednesday.
The prior November report showed just 42,000 jobs added, according to MarketWatch’s economic calendar. New data will provide key insights into the health of the labor market ahead of the official government jobs numbers.
US Economic Events This Week. Source: Market Watch
A strong employment figure could reduce chances of a rate cut and put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. In contrast, weak job growth would reinforce the case for Federal Reserve easing, which typically benefits crypto markets.
Initial jobless claims arrive on Thursday, December 4, at 8:30 am ET. As a weekly measure of layoffs, this report provides a real-time view of labor market conditions. It determines the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS REPORT 📉
This week’s initial claims held steady near 220K, close to recent multi-year lows — signaling continued labor market resilience.
Key highlights:
🔴Initial claims remain far below recession-trigger levels, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative.… pic.twitter.com/ggNRWeDo4E
Rising claims may indicate economic weakness and support calls for easier monetary policy, while falling claims would suggest resilience and less urgency for rate cuts.
Historically, Bitcoin has been highly sensitive to employment releases since they shape Fed monetary outlooks and liquidity.
Traders often position ahead of these reports, generating increased volatility in both spot and derivatives markets.
PCE Inflation Data
Friday, December 5, brings the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index at 8:30 am ET, the Fed’s preferred inflation benchmark.
This report is pivotal, as it tracks progress toward the central bank’s 2% goal. It will be released alongside personal income and spending data, providing a comprehensive view of consumer health.
Investors will focus on both headline and core PCE numbers. A softer reading could confirm the disinflation trend, solidifying expectations for a December rate cut.
Data from the CME Fed Watch Tool shows that interest bettors wager an 87.6% chance of a rate cut in the December 10 meeting, against a 12.4% chance that policymakers will hold steady.
Conversely, persistent inflation would prompt caution from the Fed, possibly disappointing markets looking for aggressive easing.
Consumer sentiment is reported at 10:00 am ET, with the prior value at 51.0 on the economic calendar. This data gauges household views on the economy and spending. Weakening sentiment can signal slowing demand and further support the case for easier monetary policy, which often lifts Bitcoin.
These four key economic releases in a single week create a high-stakes environment for digital asset markets. Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets means macroeconomic news is likely to drive market direction more than crypto-specific events.
As the first week of December commences, the interplay between jobs data, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve’s stance will determine Bitcoin’s momentum and response to changing monetary policy signals.
Ethereum price has dropped more than 6% in the past 24 hours and is now down about 27% over the last 30 days. A breakdown from a major continuation pattern has opened the door to a much deeper decline. At the same time, an on-chain signal is flashing a possible 28% downside window that aligns with what could become Ethereum’s next cycle bottom if conditions worsen.
Together, these signals show that ETH may not be done correcting yet.
One Long-Term Metric Shows Room to Fall?
Ethereum recently broke down from a clean bear flag. The move began after ETH failed at $2,990 and slipped out of the rising channel it had been trading within for a week. The earlier sell-off created the “pole,” a drop of 28.39%, and the breakdown activates a measured target around $2,140, which sits almost exactly 28% below the breakdown level.
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To see if this target makes sense, we compare it with long-term holder NUPL. Long-term holder NUPL measures how much profit long-term holders are sitting on.
NUPL has been trending down since August 22, suggesting long-term holders are reducing unrealized profits and softening their conviction. The latest short-term low was 0.36 on Nov 21, but the six-month low sits at 0.28, recorded on June 22, which is a difference of roughly 22%.
Back on June 22, when NUPL hit 0.28, ETH traded near $2,230, and the market reversed sharply. From there, Ethereum rallied all the way to $4,820, a gain of 116% from that bottom.
Today, if NUPL were to retest that 0.28 cycle-low band again, the implied price drawdown from ETH’s recent local high near $2,990 would be in the same 20–25% range, which aligns exactly with the 28% bear-flag target at $2,140.
This is the cleanest overlap in the entire analysis: Both the price pattern and the long-term holder metric point to the same lower zone.
Ethereum Price Sits on Its Strongest Cost-Basis Wall
The next step is to see whether the Ethereum price chart supports the same conclusion. The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows where large clusters of ETH were recently accumulated. The heaviest band sits between $2,801 and $2,823, with 3,591,002 ETH bought in that zone. This is the strongest support Ethereum has right now.
ETH has already broken below the $2,840 price level, increasing pressure on this cost-basis wall. If the ETH price cannot reclaim $2,840 quickly and close above $2,990 again, sellers remain in full control.
If weakness continues, the next levels on the trend-based extension appear one after another. The first point is $2,690, which sits about 4.5% below the current price. If that fails, the decline can extend to $2,560 (a further 4.6% drop), $2,440 (another 4.8%), and $2,260, which is just 2% above the June NUPL-bottom price of $2,230.
Below all of these sits $2,140, the full breakdown target, about 28% below the breakdown zone and fully aligned with the flag projection.
If ETH falls through $2,266, the bear-flag target becomes the most realistic scenario.
There is still an invalidation path, but it requires strength at several layers. ETH must regain $2,840, then break above $2,990, and then secure a close above $3,090. The entire bearish pattern loses meaning only if ETH pushes through $3,240, which would be a roughly 15% move up from current levels.
For now, ETH trades beneath its strongest cost-basis wall, long-term holders are still reducing unrealized profit, and the continuation structure points clearly lower. If these conditions hold, the $2,260–$2,140 region becomes the most probable area where Ethereum could form its next cycle bottom.
The end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1, 2024, marks a pivotal shift for crypto markets.
Despite this milestone, experts note that visible impact could take time. Balance sheet expansion may be delayed until early 2026 due to treasury settlement lags, mirroring past cycles.
Historical Patterns Link Fed Policy to Altcoin Performance
The Fed’s monetary policy increasingly influences the crypto market. Historically, when the Fed was not engaged in QT, altcoins showed notable strength against Bitcoin, sparking multi-year rallies and altering market dynamics.
Hyland’s research spotlights the periods 2014-2017 and 2019-2022. During these periods, the absence of QT allowed altcoins to sustain uptrends for 42 and 29 months, respectively.
“Altcoins historically outperform BTC when QT is not active. Alts have seen a 42-month & 29-month uptrend whilst QT was not active during 2014-2017 & 2019-2022. Based on the very strong correlation to the Fed’s balance sheet, it’s highly favorable Alts outperform BTC for many years going forward,” wrote Hyland.
The OTHERS.D/BTC.D ratio, which compares altcoin market dominance to Bitcoin, climbed as monetary conditions improved, encouraging greater risk appetite.
OTHERS.D/BTC.D ratio demonstrates historical altcoin outperformance during non-QT periods. Source: Matthew Hyland on X
The Fed’s approach closely mirrors these shifts. From 2014 to 2017, a supportive stance led to strong altcoin growth. Likewise, after QT ended in August 2019, another altcoin rally unfolded and lasted through 2022. These cycles suggest Fed liquidity policy is a core influence on crypto risk assets.
Hyland emphasized that the current balance sheet, around $6.55 trillion and stabilizing post-QT, supports optimism for multi-year altcoin outperformance relative to Bitcoin.
Critical 0.25 Level May Signal Altcoin Season Launch
Technical analysis shows the ALT/BTC pair historically bottomed at 0.25 after QT ended. This threshold is seen as a key marker signaling the potential start of an altcoin rally and may again indicate the next phase of upward momentum.
ALT/BTC pair historically bottoms at 0.25 when QT concludes, signaling potential rally starts. Source: TradingView
The ALT/BTC ratio is now at 0.36, which is above this vital support level. If this measure approaches 0.25, it could signal the typical capitulation that precedes lasting altcoin strength.
The 0.25 line holds strong technical and psychological significance, often representing where altcoins regain upward momentum against Bitcoin.
Capital often rotates into alternative cryptocurrencies when Bitcoin dominance declines. According to August 2025 Coinbase research, Bitcoin’s dominance dropped from 65% in May to about 59% by August.
This trend points to early capital flows favoring altcoins, a hallmark of “altcoin season.”
Balance Sheet Expansion Delays Could Postpone Market Impact
While QT has officially ended, immediate effects are unlikely. The experience from 2019 shows that settlement lags can postpone observable balance sheet expansion and, by extension, crypto market reactions.
Benjamin Cowen highlighted operational factors. In 2019, although QT ended in August, balance sheet growth lagged as treasury maturities settled later that month. Policy changes can thus take time to reach financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
“Just because QT ends December 1 does not mean the balance sheet immediately starts going up. It might take until early 2026 to notice that,” wrote Cowen.
These operational realities matter for market timing. Mechanisms such as treasury settlements and reserve management can delay balance sheet expansion by months, causing uncertain conditions for traders awaiting clear policy impact. Volatility may persist during this window.
Fed research underlines these complexities. Shifts in the Treasury General Account and settlement schedules may skew short-term balance sheet readings.
The experience of August 2019 shows that patience is needed before definitive market patterns emerge, likely in 2025 or 2026.
Despite near-term uncertainties, the outlook for altcoin markets remains constructive. Once Fed-driven liquidity expansion becomes evident, historical trends indicate altcoins often benefit.
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