Pi Coin has struggled since late November. After peaking near the end of the month, the price has dropped roughly 28%, erasing most of its earlier gains. Over the past seven days alone, Pi Coin is down about 8.6%, and over the past three months, losses now exceed 40%.
Despite that weakness, the latest chart data shows something new forming beneath the surface. Momentum pressure is starting to shift, raising the question of whether the correction may be nearing a pause. Will the pause lead to a rebound or a complete reversal? Time to find out!
Momentum Pressure Is Easing, But Buyers Are Still Hesitant
On the daily chart, Pi Coin has formed a hidden bullish divergence between November 4 and December 11. During this period, price made a higher low while the Relative Strength Index made a lower low. RSI measures momentum by tracking the speed of buying and selling. When price holds higher levels while momentum weakens, it often signals that selling pressure is starting to fade.
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This type of divergence usually appears near the end of sharp dips. It does not confirm a reversal by itself, but it often precedes rebound attempts when sellers begin to lose control.
However, momentum alone is not enough. The Chaikin Money Flow, which tracks whether large buyers or sellers are dominating volume, is still flashing caution. CMF remains close to testing its descending trend line (connecting lower lows) and is also trading below the zero line. This shows that big money flows have not turned supportive towards Pi Coin, yet.
In simple terms, selling pressure looks weaker, but the big buyers are not fully committed. That keeps the rebound setup fragile. Until money flow improves, upside attempts are likely to face resistance. And if the CMF breaks below the trendline, the rebound (not reversal) setup for the Pi Network coin might get invalidated, completely.
Pi Coin Price Levels That Decide What’s Next
The PI price chart now sits at a decision point. For the rebound structure to gain traction, Pi Coin needs to reclaim the $0.222 area. A sustained move above this level would mark roughly a 7% advance and signal that buyers are willing to defend higher prices again. If that happens, the price could extend toward $0.244 and possibly $0.253, provided broader market conditions stabilize.
Only a price move above $0.284 (late November high) could signal a reversal attempt. That point seems to be far off now.
Support remains just below current levels. The $0.203 zone is critical. A daily close below $0.203 would weaken the rebound case significantly and expose the downside again. If that level fails, Pi Coin could retest lower areas and push the correction into a new leg.
The rebound setup only strengthens if the price moves higher while the CMF begins to rise toward zero. Without that confirmation, upside attempts risk stalling quickly.
The Zcash price has seen a sharp run this cycle, up over 700% in three months, followed by a healthy pause. After rallying strongly through the last week, the price is now pulling back, raising questions about whether momentum is fading or simply resetting.
While short-term price action looks undecided, on-chain and volume data suggest buyers may still be quietly in control. The next move depends on whether Zcash can turn consolidation into continuation.
Buyers Still Control Structure Despite Cooling Volume
Zcash price is currently trading inside a tightening triangle pattern, which reflects short-term buyer and seller indecision rather than outright weakness. Importantly, the price continues to respect the rising trend line that has guided the uptrend this cycle. As long as that structure holds, the broader setup remains constructive.
Volume behavior adds key context. Using Wyckoff-style volume color analysis, blue bars indicate buyer-led activity, while yellow and red bars reflect increasing seller control.
Although buyer volume has cooled recently, blue bars are still dominant. A similar slowdown occurred after October 17, when buying pressure briefly weakened, before Zcash went on to rally by more than 300%.
Cooling volume alone did not end that trend. As long as the blue bars dominate, the rally is likely to remain strong, despite any pullbacks.
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Spot flow data reinforces this picture. Spot flows track whether coins are moving onto or off exchanges.
Inflows suggest potential selling, while outflows signal accumulation. On December 12, Zcash recorded roughly $14.26 million in spot inflows, meaning coins moved onto exchanges.
By December 13, that flipped sharply to around $17.34 million in net outflows, showing coins being pulled off exchanges instead.
That shift matters. Exchange outflows reduce immediate sell pressure and often reflect spot buyers stepping in during pullbacks rather than distributing into strength.
Despite a mild pullback of about 2.5% over the past 24 hours, Zcash remains up roughly 20% over the past week and more than 700% over the past three months. The trend has not broken. It is consolidating.
Zcash Price Levels That Define the Next Move
For the bullish structure to continue, the Zcash price needs to break out of the triangle. The key level to watch is $511, a 24% move from current levels. A clean daily close above this level would confirm a bullish resolution and signal renewed buyer control.
If that breakout occurs, the first upside target sits near $549, followed by $733, which capped rallies earlier in the cycle. Higher resistance zones exist near $850 and $1,190, though reaching those would require sustained momentum and supportive broader market conditions.
Downside risk remains clearly defined. If the Zcash price loses $430, the triangle structure weakens. Strong support sits near $391, and a deeper breakdown could open the door to $301 if risk-off pressure spreads across the market.
The entire category featuring Made in USA coins has traded almost flat over the past week, even as broader crypto volatility picked up. That lack of movement stands out heading into Christmas, when thin liquidity often exposes which projects are quietly building pressure.
Several US-based tokens are now sitting at clear technical decision points, where small moves could shift the short-term trend. This piece lists three such Made in USA coins to watch before Christmas 2025, led by improving price structures, rising breakdown risks, and setups that could move sharply in either direction.
Cardano (ADA)
Cardano is one of the Made in USA coins that traders could be watching ahead of Christmas 2025. It is down around 3.5% over the past 24 hours, extending its monthly losses to over 27%.
The recent Midnight upgrade failed to shift sentiment, and downside pressure has returned as the broader market weakens.
On the daily chart, Cardano has broken down from a bearish continuation structure — the bearish pole-and-flag. The prior consolidation resolved lower, confirming sellers remain in control.
This keeps the broader downside projection active, which still points to a potential drop of nearly 39% from the earlier breakdown zone.
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The first level that matters now is $0.370. This area has acted as strong support in recent weeks, but the price is already drifting toward it. A daily close below $0.370 would increase downside risk and bring $0.259 into focus, which aligns with the full bearish projection.
For the Cardano price to stabilize, selling pressure must ease near $0.370. To invalidate the bearish setup and regain momentum, Cardano needs to reclaim $0.489, followed by $0.517. Those levels mark key Fibonacci resistances and would signal buyers stepping back in.
Until then, Cardano remains vulnerable into Christmas, especially if weakness across the Made in USA category continues.
Stellar (XLM)
Stellar sits at an important decision point among Made in USA coins ahead of Christmas, as price action begins to test whether long-term adoption can still support value in the short term.
XLM is down around 2.5% over the past 24 hours, extending its monthly decline to nearly 18%. That caution becomes clearer when looking at adoption data.
While the number of RWA holders on Stellar has increased sharply over the past month, the total value of assets on the network has declined.
The price chart reinforces that message. Between December 3 and December 9, Stellar formed a hidden bearish divergence. Price made a lower high while the RSI made a higher high. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, tracks momentum. Since that divergence appeared, XLM has continued drifting lower, confirming that the broader downtrend remains intact.
The key level now is $0.231. This zone has acted as short-term support during recent pullbacks. Holding above it would suggest sellers are slowing, especially into the thin Christmas trading period. A daily close below $0.231 would expose $0.216 next, opening the door to further downside if market weakness persists.
For the bearish structure to break, Stellar needs to reclaim $0.262. That level has capped every rally attempt since mid-November.
A move above it would require roughly a 10% push and would signal that buyers are finally willing to defend higher prices again. Some hope of reclaiming that level remains as analysts on X highlight XLM flashing a buy signal.
The last time the TD Sequential flashed a buy signal around these levels, Stellar $XLM jumped 95%. pic.twitter.com/KZYIAbOQME
Until then, Stellar remains a Made in USA coin where the trend still favors caution, making this support test especially important heading into Christmas.
Litecoin (LTC)
Litecoin is one of the few Made in USA coins showing relative stability heading into Christmas.
LTC is up around 1.5% on the week, making it an outlier among Made in USA coins. At the same time, it has remained down roughly 19% over the past month. This mixed performance lines up with recent fundamentals. Reports show institutions and funds have quietly accumulated around 3.7 million LTC, even as retail interest stayed muted.
That accumulation has not translated into immediate upside, but it helps explain why Litecoin has avoided deeper breakdowns compared to peers. For Made in USA projects, that kind of steady demand matters more than short-lived hype, especially into year-end.
On the price chart, Litecoin is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which is typically bullish. This structure reflects the fading of selling pressure over time, followed by buyers slowly regaining control. The pattern attempted a breakout on December 9 but failed to hold, pushing the price back into consolidation rather than triggering a reversal.
The structure remains valid as long as Litecoin holds above $79.63. A drop below this level would weaken the setup and delay any upside attempt. A deeper move below $74.72 would invalidate the pattern entirely and shift the outlook back to bearish continuation.
For confirmation, Litecoin needs a clean daily close above the neckline near $87.08. That break would signal the pattern is active again and open a path toward $97.95 first, with $101.69 as the full measured target.
Until that happens, Litecoin remains a US-based project (token) at a decision point, where steady institutional interest contrasts with still-cautious price action ahead of Christmas 2025.
XRP price has rebounded from recent lows, rising nearly 4% from yesterday’s bottom and stabilizing after a modest pullback. While the broader trend remains cautious, a new metric suggests downside momentum may be fading.
With the XRP issuer recently moving closer to regulated-banking status, the focus now shifts to whether large holders continue to step in to confirm a real trend change.
Bullish Divergence Forms as Largest Whales Begin Adding
On the daily chart, the XRP price has flashed a bullish divergence between December 1 and December 12. During this period, price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum, and this pattern often appears when selling pressure weakens before a rebound.
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This setup has already triggered a bounce, but what makes it more compelling is whale behavior. The two largest XRP holder groups have already started responding.
Wallets holding more than 1 billion XRP increased their holdings from 25.36 billion on December 9 to 25.42 billion. At the same time, wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP reversed their selling trend, rising from 8.08 billion on December 11 to 8.15 billion at press time.
In total, these two cohorts added roughly 130 million XRP. At the current price, that equals about $265 million in net accumulation. This confirms that the biggest holders are not just watching the divergence, they are acting on it.
XRP Price Levels That Decide If the Reversal Holds
For the bullish divergence to stay valid, the XRP price needs follow-through. The first level that matters is $2.11. A daily close above it would mark a 3.72% move from current levels and confirm that buyers are regaining short-term control. XRP has not held above $2.11 since early December.
If that level breaks, the next resistance sits at $2.21. Only a sustained move above $2.21 would shift the structure bullish and reopen the path toward $2.58 or higher.
On the downside, risk remains clearly defined. If the XRP price falls below $1.96 while RSI weakens, the bullish divergence would be invalidated. That scenario would expose $1.88 first, followed by $1.81 if selling accelerates.
Right now, the setup is constructive but unfinished. Momentum indicators show improvement, and whales have already responded once. For this reversal to fully play out, those large holders need to keep adding support, not just react briefly.
The crypto market has picked up over the past 24 hours, and traders are now looking for altcoins to watch as weekend flows usually bring sharper moves. Some projects are showing fresh demand after new updates, others are building momentum on the charts, and a few are nearing levels that could decide their next trend.
This BeInCrypto curated list highlights three setups that stand out heading into the weekend — each for a different reason.
Keeta (KTA)
KTA is up about 36% in the past 24 hours. The jump follows Keeta’s new fiat anchor launch, which lets users move money between bank accounts and stablecoins with fewer delays. That upgrade increases real-world use, so traders could watch Keeta closely this weekend.
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(1/3) We’re excited to announce that Bridge @Stablecoin is now live as the first Fiat Anchor on Keeta Network!
Bridge enables seamless movement between fiat and stablecoins, allowing users to deposit or withdraw directly to and from their bank accounts with speed and… pic.twitter.com/TlMKn1Ikod
On the 12-hour chart, Keeta has broken above $0.32. The next important level is $0.36, which rejected the last push. A clean close above it can open a move toward $0.43.
The breakout attempt comes with rare support from the Wyckoff volume-color indicator, which is based on simple buying and selling strength.
A green bar shows buyers in full control, a red bar shows sellers controlling the move, a blue bar shows buyers gaining control, and a yellow bar shows sellers gaining control. Keeta has printed two strong green bars for the first time since late November. That shift hints that real demand is backing the breakout rather than a short-term spike.
If buying continues and Keeta closes above $0.36, the path to $0.43 opens. If the bars turn blue or yellow again, profit-taking may start. In that case, $0.27 becomes the key support. A break below it exposes $0.21, which flips the short-term trend back to weak.
Keeta remains one of the top altcoins to watch this weekend because its fundamental upgrade and rising buyer strength now line up with a breakout setup above $0.36.
Solana (SOL)
Solana is up about 6% in the past 24 hours, helped by steady news coming out of the ongoing Breakpoint event. The most notable update is JPMorgan using Solana to arrange a tokenized commercial paper issuance. That kind of institutional use case keeps interest high even while the broader chart still faces hurdles. And that makes SOL one of the top altcoins to watch over the next two days.
Day 1 of Breakpoint 2025 is in the books.
Today, the global Solana community gathered in Abu Dhabi to witness an institutional convergence of Wall Street giants, sovereign wealth, DeFi, and internet capital markets.
Between December 7 and December 11, Solana formed a higher low while the RSI formed a lower low. The RSI tracks the speed of buying and selling. When price climbs but RSI slips, it creates a hidden bullish divergence. This usually signals fading selling pressure even before momentum shows up on the chart.
The rebound has pushed Solana back toward $146, a level that has blocked every move since November 14. A clean daily close above it this weekend would confirm strength and set up a path toward $171. Solana needs roughly a 5% push to test that breakout, which is well within its normal range when buyers step in.
If $146 rejects again, the pullback zone remains near $127. That level has held since December 2 and continues to act as a strong floor. A break below it weakens the setup, but as long as the hidden bullish divergence stays active, Solana still has a chance to retest higher levels.
For now, Solana is on the weekend watchlist because both the chart and the Breakpoint news flow point to a possible attempt at $146.
Chainlink (LINK)
Chainlink is up about 4% in the past 24 hours. Coinbase naming LINK’s CCIP the default bridge matters because it can raise real usage. If more wrapped assets move across networks with CCIP, demand for LINK could rise over time.
COINBASE $COIN SELECTS CHAINLINK $LINK CCIP AS EXCLUSIVE INTEROPERABILITY PROVIDER FOR ALL COINBASE WRAPPED ASSETS
An EMA crossover is forming on the 12-hour chart. EMA means exponential moving average. It is a moving average that gives more weight to recent prices. A bullish crossover happens when a smaller (20-period) EMA, in this case, rises above the longer (50-period) EMA. Traders use that crossover as a simple momentum signal. It suggests short-term buyers are gaining control.
LINK is trading above both EMAs already. That shows buyers are in control going into the weekend. If the 20/50 EMA crossover completes, LINK could try a quick push. The first level to clear is $14.23. LINK needs roughly 1.2% for a 12-hour close above it. A clean move above that opens $14.99, then $16.78.
If the crossover fails, risk returns to the downside. The key support is $13.37. A break below it would expose $12.44 and then $11.75. Right now, the chart and the Coinbase CCIP news line up. That combo is why LINK is a top token to watch this weekend.
HBAR price is flat today after a sharp monthly drop of nearly 29%. It is still down about 6% over the past week. The trend looks weak, but the deeper picture is more complex. Retail demand is soft, yet whales have added significantly over the past two days.
This mix of weakness and accumulation suggests a base may be forming even though the price action still looks weak.
Weak Demand Meets Heavy Accumulation?
HBAR is still moving inside a falling wedge. A wedge is usually a bullish structure because it shows sellers losing strength over time. But inside that wedge, something weaker appeared. Between December 7 and December 11, the HBAR price made a higher low while the On-Balance Volume (OBV) made a lower low.
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OBV is a cumulative volume tool that tracks whether money is flowing in or out of a token. When price makes a higher low but OBV drops, buyers do not have enough strength to support the bounce. That creates a bearish divergence even inside a bullish pattern.
Whales, however, are acting very differently. Accounts holding at least 10 million HBAR increased from 136.54 to 149.49. Accounts with at least 100 million HBAR rose from 40.65 to 73.62. Using only the minimum thresholds, whales added about 3.42 billion HBAR in under 48 hours. At the current price, this stash is worth at least $445 million.
OBV tracks traded volume on exchanges; large off-exchange transfers or OTC/custody moves may not appear in OBV, so OBV can miss some whale activity and is a better representation of retail interest.
This contradiction sets the stage for the next section, because whales are likely reacting to a deeper signal.
A Repeated Signal That Whales May Be Watching
Between October 17 and December 11, the price made a lower low while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) made a higher low. RSI measures the speed of buying and selling. When price falls, but RSI rises, it forms a standard bullish divergence. This kind of divergence is linked with trend reversals.
This same divergence appeared before earlier bounces. On December 1 and December 7, the pattern showed up, and HBAR moved 15%, and 12% from the lows. Each move stalled at resistance, but this time the divergence shows up alongside massive whale accumulation. That combination makes the current reversal attempt more meaningful than the previous ones inside the wedge.
If the caps that stopped the earlier rallies break, the divergence can shift the broader structure from bearish to bullish. That may be what whales are positioning for.
The Most Critical HBAR Price Levels
The HBAR price needs a daily close above $0.159. This level wasn’t breached during the previous bounces. A breakout above it also breaks the wedge’s upper trend line and opens room for a move toward $0.198 and $0.219.
If price weakens again, $0.122 is the line to watch. A drop below it sends HBAR back to the wedge’s lower boundary. That line is weak because it has only two touch points. A break below it delays any recovery and signals that sellers still control the broader trend.
Right now, OBV shows weak demand, RSI shows a bullish setup, and whales have added about 3.42 billion HBAR at the lows. If HBAR can clear $0.159, the whale accumulation becomes a major tailwind instead of a background signal.
The crypto market is still under pressure after the latest FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve delivered its third 25 bps rate cut of the year, but the tone that followed was more cautious than expected. Inflation risks and slower growth signals have kept prices weak across most major assets. Despite this pullback, crypto whales are quietly adding to their positions.
Their buying has focused on three tokens that show early signs of rebound or breakout setups.
Aster (ASTER)
Aster’s price has slipped almost 4% in the past 24 hours, extending its month-on-month losses to about 14%. Yet whales are moving in the opposite direction.
Their holdings jumped 7.35% over the past day, adding about 4.59 million ASTER, worth roughly $4.22 million at the current price. What’s interesting is that ASTER is one of those rare coins that saw whale buying both before and after the FOMC decision.
This buying stands out because the chart shows a technical setup that may help explain why whales stepped in.
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Between November 3 and December 11, the ASTER price formed a higher low, while the RSI made a lower low. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures the strength of buying and selling. When the price rises but RSI falls, this creates a hidden bullish divergence. It usually signals that selling pressure is fading, even if the chart still looks weak on the surface.
Aster showed the same pattern between November 3 and December 1. That divergence produced a bounce of almost 22%. The current setup looks similar, and whales may be positioning for the same kind of rebound.
For upside continuation, Aster needs a clean daily close above $1.08, the level where the last bounce stalled. If it breaks that line, the price can aim for $1.25 and $1.40, which match the next major resistances.
If the structure weakens instead, the downside is clear too. A daily close below $0.88 would break the rising structure and weaken whale conviction. Under that floor, ASTER may revisit $0.81 or lower.
Maple Finance (SYRUP)
Maple Finance (SYRUP) is still down about 2.2% in the past 24 hours and nearly 40% over the past month. Even with this weakness, crypto whales continued building positions. Normal whale wallets increased their holdings by 3.86% in the past day, while mega whales increased their stash by 4.9%, taking their total to 1.1 billion SYRUP.
That 4.9% jump means mega whales added roughly 51.4 million SYRUP, worth about $14.4 million at the current price. The fresh accumulation comes right after the slightly hawkish FOMC tone, which makes the buying move more interesting.
Whales seem to be counting on the $0.23 support to hold. SYRUP touched this level several times since early December. It has not broken once, which may be the reason whales stepped in. The token has been moving in a broad $0.23 to $0.31 range, with its last support test on December 4.
Momentum gives a short-term boost. Between December 9 and December 11, the price made a lower low while the RSI made a higher low. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures buying and selling strength. When price drops but RSI rises, it forms a bullish divergence. On lower time frames, this usually points to a bounce even during a wider downtrend.
If a bounce forms, the first target is $0.31, the ceiling that has rejected every move since December 6. A clear break above $0.31 opens the path to $0.39 and $0.48.
But if the SYRUP price loses $0.23, the whale conviction weakens. A breakdown there exposes open downside and likely resets the setup.
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU)
Pudgy Penguins is down almost 10% in the past 24 hours, but crypto whales continue to buy through the dip. Whale wallets increased their holdings by 5.25%, taking their total stash to 1.18 billion PENGU. That increase means whales added about 58.9 million PENGU.
Top 100 addresses or mega whales also showed steady accumulation. Their holdings rose 2.85% in the past day, lifting their combined stash to 76.95 billion PENGU. That comes to an addition of about 2.13 billion tokens, worth close to $21.3 million at today’s price. For a token that just slipped double digits, this kind of synchronized whale and mega whale buying is rare.
The PENGU price chart explains why the whales continue to load up. Pudgy Penguins is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe. This is a bullish reversal setup that often forms when a downtrend is losing pressure. The neckline sits near $0.014, and because it is sloping upward, it signals improving buyer-aligned structure even before a breakout forms.
Whales may be betting on that breakout. If PENGU closes above $0.014, the pattern’s height projects a move of roughly 35%, which places the upside target near $0.019. That is likely the reason large wallets are entering despite the price weakness.
But the pattern has clear invalidation levels. If Pudgy Penguins loses $0.010, the setup weakens. A drop under $0.009 fully invalidates the pattern and removes the bullish projection. For now, as long as PENGU holds above $0.010, the inverse head and shoulders remains in play, and crypto whales look prepared for a possible breakout.
XRP price has tested patience for weeks. The coin is down about 18% over the last month and nearly 4% in the past 24 hours. It has spent most of its time stuck inside a tight range, making the past few weeks feel flat and frustrating.
But the latest move shows something that the earlier attempts did not. A chart signal and a shift in holder behavior now point to a bounce that might finally have enough support to hold.
A New Signal Shows That Buyers Might Be Returning
XRP has been trading between $2.28 and $1.98 since late November. This range shows that buyers and sellers have been evenly matched. But the lower side of this range recently produced something new. The price touched the bottom trend line of a symmetrical triangle. A symmetrical triangle forms when buyers and sellers slow down at the same pace, which often signals an aggresive move.
The first strong clue comes from the volume trend. Between December 6 and December 11, the price made a lower low, but the On-Balance Volume (OBV) made a higher low.
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OBV measures whether volume is flowing in or out of a coin. When price drops but OBV rises, it shows hidden accumulation. This usually means someone is buying the dips even while the chart looks weak. That is the first sign that a bounce attempt might surface.
This combination of the triangle support and the OBV divergence hints that early buying pressure is returning.
Why This Bounce Could Finally Hold If Selling Pressure Keeps Fading
A clean bounce, if it happens, also needs lower selling pressure. Long-term holders, often the strongest group in any coin, have reduced their selling sharply. On December 3, they were moving out 101,083,156 XRP. By December 10, that number dropped to 51,157,301 XRP. That is about a 49% reduction. They are still net sellers, but the selling pressure is softening at a noticeable pace.
The most interesting, third clue, comes from the fastest-moving wallets. These short-term XRP holders often sell into every bounce and kill momentum. But this time, they are cutting the supply. That is evident via the HODL waves metric, which shows supply held based on cohort age.
The 24-hour cohort held 1.89% of the supply on December 2. By December 10, that had dropped to just 0.22%.
The one-day to one-week cohort peaked at 3.88% on December 4 and has dropped to 1.24% as of December 10. This removes the speculative pressure that usually weakens rebounds.
When long-term holders sell less and very short-term holders (speculative money) exit the market, it allows price bounces to sustain.
XRP Price Levels That Will Confirm or Break the XRP Bounce
XRP trades near $2.00 and is still inside the broader $2.28 to $1.98 range. For the bounce to gain strength, XRP needs to clear $2.17 first. That level, about 8.37% higher, is the checkpoint that decides the next push. A daily close above it improves the odds of testing the top of the range.
A move above $2.28 would confirm a range break. That would allow the XRP price to aim higher, finally.
On the downside, the risk is close. A daily candle close under $1.98 weakens the entire bullish setup. If that breaks, the chart opens a path toward $1.88. That is the next major support.
Bitcoin price has extended its correction after the FOMC rate cut. The coin is down about 13% over the past 30 days and almost 4% in the past week. The move still fits inside a slow, grinding corrective phase since the October peak.
But two on-chain shifts now show something that did not appear at any point earlier in this downturn. These signals suggest the correction could be close to a turn — if Bitcoin delivers the push it needs.
Two Metrics Now Point Toward a Possible Turn
Short-term capitulation is showing up clearly now. CryptoQuant’s realized profit-and-loss data shows short-term Bitcoin holders are still deep in losses. This usually happens near the end of a correction, not the middle, because panicked selling at a loss often marks late-stage exhaustion.
BTC Short-Term Holders are Still in a Pain Zone
“Structurally, these deep loss pockets usually show up closer to the late stages of a correction than the early ones.” – By @IT_Tech_PLpic.twitter.com/bw39CfxGh6
HODL Waves measure how much Bitcoin each “age band” holds — from very new coins to very old ones. It shows which groups are accumulating or selling. The one-day to one-week cohort held 6.2% of the supply in late November. By December 10, they held only 2%.
That is a massive 68% drop and signals heavy short-term selling, the kind that often completes a correction rather than starts a new one. Plus, this cohort dumping also pushes speculative money out of the asset.
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The next signal comes from Exchange Net Position Change, which tracks how many coins move into or out of exchanges each day.
On November 27, net flows were +5,103 BTC (coins moving in).
By December 10, the flows flipped to –43,292 BTC, a flip of more than 8.4x from inflows to outflows.
A similar shift happened between September 17 and September 25. After that flip, Bitcoin rallied toward its all-time high above $126,000, per CoinGecko.
Now the same combination — short-term capitulation plus strong outflows — is forming again. Together, they create the cleanest trend-shift setup of this entire correction.
Bitcoin Price Needs a 4% Push to Break Out?
If these signals are pointing to a turn, the Bitcoin price chart needs to confirm it. The Bitcoin price has been moving inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. A symmetrical triangle forms when buyers and sellers slow at the same pace. Each side has only two touch points, which makes both trend lines weak. A small push can break the entire setup on either side.
That push is clear: Bitcoin needs a daily close above $94,140, which is only about a 4% move from current levels. This level overlaps with both the horizontal resistance and the upper edge of the triangle. A clean breakout opens the path toward $97,320 and then $101,850.
On the downside, the nearest risk level is $90,180. A daily close under it weakens the bullish case. If that breaks, $87,010 is the next major support. Losing that exposes $80,640, where the broader bullish idea breaks.
Right now, the setup is neutral but improving. Short-term capitulation and heavy outflows give the Bitcoin price a chance to end its correction — but only if it delivers that 4% breakout.
XRP price has fallen almost 10% over the past month despite a slight 1.5% gain this week. The price remains locked inside a $2.31–$1.98 range, failing to secure any meaningful breakout. This tension reflects a split in market behavior: whales are selling into strength while key holder groups continue accumulating.
The push and pull between these two sides is keeping the XRP price inside a falling wedge that has yet to confirm a bullish reversal.
Whales Trim While Key Holder Groups Resist the Pressure
Whale activity shows a clear shift toward caution.
Wallets holding 100 million–1 billion XRP cut their balances from 8.32 billion to 8.27 billion, starting December 7. Another group holding 10–100 million XRP reduced its supply from 11.01 billion to 10.99 billion on December 8. Together, they offloaded about 70 million XRP over the past 48 hours, worth roughly $143 million at the current price.
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The selling is not dramatic in token terms, but it arrives at a sensitive moment — exactly when XRP is trying to stabilize. This sell pressure helps explain why every breakout attempt has stalled before gaining momentum.
The counterforce comes from short- and mid-term holders, and this shows up clearly on HODL Waves. HODL Waves track how much XRP is held in each “coin age band,” showing how long tokens remain unmoved.
The one-to three-month group increased from 8.52% to 10.31%. The three-to six-month group rose from 9.40% to 10.87%.
These holders typically accumulate when they believe selling pressure is easing. Their buying into a 10% monthly decline suggests they expect the wedge structure to resolve to the upside eventually.
That tension is holding the XRP price inside the same narrowing structure.
XRP Price Pattern Shows a Stalemate as Buyers and Sellers Pull in Opposite Directions
XRP is forming a falling wedge, a pattern that usually favors bullish reversals — but only if buyers can force a decisive breakout. Right now, the wedge is functioning more as a stalemate, with whale selling capping momentum and accumulating holders preventing deeper downside.
The breakout point sits near $2.46, where the descending trendline meets current price action. The XRP price needs a strong daily close above this level to confirm a reversal. If that happens, upside targets sit at $2.61, $2.83, and $3.11.
While price trades between $2.31 and $1.98, the wedge remains valid. A break below $1.98, however, weakens the pattern and exposes $1.82, a level that served as structural support earlier in the cycle.
For now, the outlook is simple: Whale selling delays the breakout. Mid-term accumulation keeps the structure alive. The wedge will not resolve until one side overwhelms the other.
Ethereum price has climbed over 13% since December 1, helped by a broader market recovery and growing optimism ahead of today’s Fusaka upgrade, which improves how efficiently the network processes transactions. ETH is still down more than 17% over the past month, but the recent bounce and several technical signals look similar to what happened just before the Pectra upgrade in May 2025, when Ethereum rallied 56% in seven days.
The question now is simple: can Fusaka trigger that kind of move again?
Conditions Look Similar to Pectra — And Big Buyers Are Returning
During the Pectra phase (May 6–13), Ethereum surged 56% after flashing standard bullish divergence. That pattern occurs when price makes a lower low, but RSI (Relative Strength Index, a momentum meter from 0–100) makes a higher low. It often signals that sellers are losing control even as the chart still looks weak. More of a trend reversal.
P.S.: The Pectra upgrade dropped on May 7, 2025.
The same setup is forming now.
Between November 4 and December 1, ETH made a lower low, but RSI formed a higher low. That mirrors the exact structure that appeared before the Pectra move.
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The number of Ethereum addresses holding at least $1 million has risen from 13,322 to 13,945, a 4.68% increase. Since each wallet holds a minimum of $1 million, this reflects at least $623 million in added capital entering the network’s top tier of holders. Big buyers entering ahead of a major technical upgrade is historically a constructive sign.
Together, the divergence pattern and fresh large-wallet inflows build a case that Fusaka could act as a catalyst — if the key breakout level is cleared.
One Cost-Basis Cluster and One Ethereum Price Level Decide Everything
Whether ETH shows a Pectra-style extension depends on clearing a single supply wall. Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution reveals the heaviest near-term supply cluster between $3,154 and $3,179, where about 2.76 million ETH sits. This aligns almost perfectly with the chart’s resistance at $3,166 (a strong resistance and support line).
• show buyers have almost absorbed the largest supply zone
• open room for a push toward $3,653
If momentum mirrors the Pectra structure, a 56% extension from December’s lows would target roughly $4,262, which also matches a strong historical ceiling.
On the downside, ETH’s structure weakens below $2,996. Losing that range exposes $2,873, and if selling pressure expands, $2,618 becomes the deeper support to watch for the Ethereum price.
HBAR price is down about 6% in the past 24 hours, underperforming an already weak crypto market. Even with this pressure, the chart is flashing a rare mix of three early rebound clues that most mid-caps are not showing right now.
If the broader market steadies, HBAR could be one of the first to move, especially if it protects a key support level discussed later.
Accumulation Signs Build Beneath the Decline
HBAR has moved inside a broad falling wedge since early September. This pattern often turns bullish when sellers lose control near the lower boundary, and that shift first appeared around November 21.
The first clue comes from the changing volume behavior. HBAR’s activity follows a Wyckoff-style color pattern: red shows sellers in control, yellow shows sellers gaining control, blue marks buyers gaining control, and green shows buyers fully in control.
Since HBAR peaked at $0.155 on November 23 and fell nearly 15%, the bars have shifted from heavy red to a blend of yellow and blue. That blend is a classic sign of seller exhaustion and early tug-of-war. The last time this mix showed up — between October 15 and October 28 — HBAR climbed 41% right after.
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A second clue appears in the MFI (Money Flow Index), which tracks buying and selling pressure using both price and volume. Between November 23 and December 1, the HBAR price kept making lower highs while MFI made higher highs. That divergence shows dips are being quietly bought. A similar divergence formed between October 6 and October 24 and led to a 33% jump once it completed.
The third clue comes from steady spot ETF demand. The Canary HBAR Spot ETF has posted positive weekly inflows in four of the last five weeks, with more than $80 million in cumulative inflows. Inflows are smaller than late October, but they remain positive even as price falls — meaning broader demand has not vanished.
Together, these three clues — shifting volume control, dip-buying pressure, and ongoing ETF inflows — show early accumulation forming beneath the surface.
Key HBAR Price Levels Decide Whether the Rebound Can Hold
The wedge’s lower boundary near $0.122 is the most important support for HBAR right now. Holding that area keeps the rebound case alive. Losing it exposes the next major zone near $0.079, which would flip the structure from “early accumulation” to a deeper slide.
For strength, HBAR needs to reclaim $0.140 first, a 5% rebound from the current level. That would show that buyers are finally overpowering the sell-side pressure. If $0.140 breaks, the next major level sits at $0.155. Clearing $0.155 opens the path toward $0.169 and even $0.182 if the crypto market improves.
Zcash is down about 21% in the past 24 hours and has now extended its seven-day loss to almost 33%. The monthly trend has also flipped negative. Even then, the broader three-month Zcash price gain still sits above 780%, which shows how strong the previous rally was.
Right now, Zcash is trading inside a bullish pattern that has guided every major move since September. The price has just touched the lower trend line of this channel. This is the last strong support that keeps the long-term uptrend alive. Two internal metrics hint that the selling pressure may be fading, but ZEC must protect that critical line for any recovery.
Momentum Weakens, but Pressure May Be Easing
The first clue comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI measures momentum on a 0–100 scale. Between September 27 and December 1, the price formed a higher low, while RSI formed a lower low. This is hidden bullish divergence and often appears near exhaustion points.
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The second clue comes from CMF (Chaikin Money Flow), which tracks whether big-money flows are entering or exiting the market.
CMF had been falling since November 6, the same period when the price corrected sharply. CMF slipped below zero on November 24 for the first time since late October, and that drop aligned with heavier selling. But CMF has now curled up and is heading back toward the zero line.
That matters because CMF is also showing a small divergence. Between November 27 and December 1, the price made a lower high while CMF made a higher high. When CMF is turning up while the price falls, it suggests large buyers may be preparing to re-enter. If CMF breaks above zero and moves past the descending trend line drawn across recent lower highs, ZEC could see momentum shift back in its favor.
Both signals only matter if the lower channel support of the channel continues to hold.
Correlation Shift and Key Zcash Price Levels That Decide the Trend
Zcash’s earlier rally was helped by its weak or slightly negative correlation with Bitcoin. Over the past year, the BTC–ZEC correlation sits near –0.05. This helped ZEC outperform during Bitcoin weakness.
But in the past seven days, the correlation has turned mildly positive at 0.48. It is still weaker than most major coins, meaning ZEC can still move differently, but it also means Bitcoin’s drop has pulled ZEC down harder in the short term.
Because of this shift, the price levels now matter even more:
ZEC is sitting just above $348, the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A daily close below $348 breaks the trend line and opens a move toward $309. If $309 fails, the next major support sits at $230, where buyers previously stepped in strongly.
For the Zcash price to regain strength, it must reclaim $592, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci level. That move would require a rebound of about 63.9% from current levels — large, but not unusual for ZEC given its past swings.
If CMF keeps turning up and the long-term negative BTC correlation plays out, Zcash could still protect the channel and extend the broader uptrend. But losing $348 flips the entire structure and ends the bullish case at least for now.
Ethereum price has dropped more than 6% in the past 24 hours and is now down about 27% over the last 30 days. A breakdown from a major continuation pattern has opened the door to a much deeper decline. At the same time, an on-chain signal is flashing a possible 28% downside window that aligns with what could become Ethereum’s next cycle bottom if conditions worsen.
Together, these signals show that ETH may not be done correcting yet.
One Long-Term Metric Shows Room to Fall?
Ethereum recently broke down from a clean bear flag. The move began after ETH failed at $2,990 and slipped out of the rising channel it had been trading within for a week. The earlier sell-off created the “pole,” a drop of 28.39%, and the breakdown activates a measured target around $2,140, which sits almost exactly 28% below the breakdown level.
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To see if this target makes sense, we compare it with long-term holder NUPL. Long-term holder NUPL measures how much profit long-term holders are sitting on.
NUPL has been trending down since August 22, suggesting long-term holders are reducing unrealized profits and softening their conviction. The latest short-term low was 0.36 on Nov 21, but the six-month low sits at 0.28, recorded on June 22, which is a difference of roughly 22%.
Back on June 22, when NUPL hit 0.28, ETH traded near $2,230, and the market reversed sharply. From there, Ethereum rallied all the way to $4,820, a gain of 116% from that bottom.
Today, if NUPL were to retest that 0.28 cycle-low band again, the implied price drawdown from ETH’s recent local high near $2,990 would be in the same 20–25% range, which aligns exactly with the 28% bear-flag target at $2,140.
This is the cleanest overlap in the entire analysis: Both the price pattern and the long-term holder metric point to the same lower zone.
Ethereum Price Sits on Its Strongest Cost-Basis Wall
The next step is to see whether the Ethereum price chart supports the same conclusion. The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows where large clusters of ETH were recently accumulated. The heaviest band sits between $2,801 and $2,823, with 3,591,002 ETH bought in that zone. This is the strongest support Ethereum has right now.
ETH has already broken below the $2,840 price level, increasing pressure on this cost-basis wall. If the ETH price cannot reclaim $2,840 quickly and close above $2,990 again, sellers remain in full control.
If weakness continues, the next levels on the trend-based extension appear one after another. The first point is $2,690, which sits about 4.5% below the current price. If that fails, the decline can extend to $2,560 (a further 4.6% drop), $2,440 (another 4.8%), and $2,260, which is just 2% above the June NUPL-bottom price of $2,230.
Below all of these sits $2,140, the full breakdown target, about 28% below the breakdown zone and fully aligned with the flag projection.
If ETH falls through $2,266, the bear-flag target becomes the most realistic scenario.
There is still an invalidation path, but it requires strength at several layers. ETH must regain $2,840, then break above $2,990, and then secure a close above $3,090. The entire bearish pattern loses meaning only if ETH pushes through $3,240, which would be a roughly 15% move up from current levels.
For now, ETH trades beneath its strongest cost-basis wall, long-term holders are still reducing unrealized profit, and the continuation structure points clearly lower. If these conditions hold, the $2,260–$2,140 region becomes the most probable area where Ethereum could form its next cycle bottom.
The real-world asset market has been recovering after a slow November, with fresh interest emerging from stablecoin experiments and strong technical setups. Activity remains uneven across the sector, but a few charts are setting up more cleanly than the others.
Among the key RWA tokens to watch, three stand out as December approaches. Each shows a different mix of strength, recovery potential, and risk.
Stellar (XLM)
Among key RWA tokens to watch in December, Stellar (XLM) stands out as a payments-first chain that big financial players actually use.
On the chart, Stellar is quietly building a reversal setup. Between November 4 and November 21, the price reached a lower low; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low.
RSI measures momentum on a 0–100 scale, so this “price down, RSI up” pattern, standard bullish divergence, often hints that selling pressure is fading under the surface.
The rebound began immediately after that signal, yet XLM remains trapped in a tight range between $0.253 and $0.264. A clean daily close above $0.264 is the first sign that bulls are back in control.
If that happens, the next upside areas to watch are $0.275 and then $0.324 if the broader market improves.
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If the XLM price falls below $0.239 instead, the bullish setup weakens, and the move could stretch toward $0.217, delaying any RWA-driven recovery story.
Quant (QNT)
Quant is the clear outlier among RWA tokens to watch right now. While most real-world-asset plays struggled through November, QNT moved in the opposite direction. It is up about 32% this month and roughly 37% in the past seven days. In the last 24 hours alone, the token added another 12%, making it one of the strongest charts in this segment.
Quant sits at the center of the “interoperability for finance” narrative. Its Overledger tech connects private and public blockchains, which is why it often reacts earlier than other RWA coins when institutional demand strengthens.
On the chart, momentum is still building. QNT is close to forming a bullish EMA (Exponential Moving Average) crossover on the daily chart, where the 20-day EMA is about to move above the 50-day EMA.
This setup often signals that buyers are gaining control. If the crossover completes, Quant (QNT) could have room for another strong push.
The EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, is a trend line that gives more weight to recent prices, allowing traders to see short-term momentum more clearly.
The first level to clear is $119. This level lines up with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. If buyers stay active, even $142 comes into view as the next major resistance.
On the downside, $100 is the first support to watch. Losing that level can force QNT back toward $91 and $87. The broader bullish structure breaks only if the token falls below $82. This is the point at which the current uptrend stops making sense.
For now, Quant remains the most resilient name in this RWA group and carries the strongest momentum heading into December.
That uncertainty shows up on the chart. Ondo has posted a steady rebound since November 21, but the more significant development is evident in its OBV line.
OBV, or on-balance volume, measures whether buying volume is stronger than selling volume over time. Ondo’s OBV has broken above the descending trendline in place since early November.
This breakout occurred while the price has been stuck between $0.50 and $0.54 since November 27, which suggests that accumulation may be forming beneath the surface.
For upside movement, the first step is a clean close above $0.54. That level sits about 6% above the current price. Clearing it can pave the way for a move toward $0.60, and a stronger market could push the ONDO price toward $0.70.
If OBV fails to hold above the breakout line and slips back under it, the move becomes a fake-out. In that case, losing $0.50 becomes more likely, and the next key support is near $0.44.
Among the RWA tokens, ONDO has the most balanced setup. It has the structure to move higher if accumulation continues, but the same range can break on the downside if OBV weakens again.
Monad has dropped over 47% from its post-listing high in just four days. The Monad price chart shows a rapid launch spike followed by a sharp downside slide, a pattern similar to how Pi Coin traded immediately after its launch. Both are new layer-1 projects that launched with strong attention, but both slipped quickly after launch.
This piece compares the chart structures and then examines whether MON is exhibiting the same sustained weakness as Pi Coin, or if its own setup still indicates signs of stability.
Monad Mirrors Pi Coin’s Early Post-Listing Slide
Pi Coin lost 86.57% of its value within the first six weeks after listing and is now down more than 91% from its post-launch high.
The key difference is the market backdrop. Pi Coin launched during a stronger crypto environment earlier this year. And when it dropped, it couldn’t even recover half of its losses despite BTC hitting new highs in early October.
Monad is entering a weaker market where liquidity is thin and large assets are struggling to hold momentum. So the odds are certainly not in favor.
Even though the price-specific parallel between MON and PI is clear on the surface, the next step is to look deeper into Monad’s own chart and structure to see whether the weakness continues or if there are early signs of support forming.
Supply Strength Weakens As Large Money Flow Drops
Monad’s internal picture becomes weaker once we examine how big money has behaved since the listing week.
The first signal comes from CMF, which tracks whether bigger buyers are sending money into an asset or pulling it out. After the initial post-launch spike, the token stabilized near the end of October, which is when CMF became usable. From that point, the money-flow line has moved only one way — down.
Since October 27, CMF has dropped by more than 270% and has remained below zero for most of the decline. A fall under zero means larger buyers are stepping aside, not adding support.
Even big market players like Arthur Hayes have expressed doubts regarding Monad, citing the significant outflows of capital.
MON’s CMF is now sitting close to its lowest reading since the token went live, which usually signals that confidence from deeper pockets has not returned.
The second problem appears in the bull-bear power reading. BBP measures whether buyers or sellers have more control of momentum. When BBP leans this heavily negative while CMF keeps making new lows, even recoveries tend to be short-lived.
Taken together, these signs indicate that Monad is not yet attracting strong bidding. The MON price chart appears bearish, and both metrics indicate that buyers remain hesitant. Even if short-term bounces appear, a meaningful reversal looks difficult unless large amounts of money return and momentum turns upward.
How Low Can Monad Price Go If The Slide Continues?
With money flow weakening and sellers in full control, the last piece of the puzzle is the price structure itself. The short-term trend on the 4-hour Monad price chart has pointed down since November 26, and the candles have respected that slope without any meaningful shift.
In this phase, the chart works like a simple extension map where each failed bounce pushes the next level into focus.
If Monad loses $0.026, the slide can extend toward $0.023, which is the next clear continuation level on the trend-based extension. If momentum remains weak and money flow continues to decline, even $0.013 remains on the table as a deeper projection.
These levels appear far, but Pi Coin also continued to slide post-launch, and the similarity in the early structure is hard to ignore.
Any recovery attempt needs to start with a move back above $0.029. That only stabilizes the structure. The real shift appears only if Monad closes above $0.039 and then $0.040.
A push above those bands would break the current slope, rebuild confidence, and weaken the comparison with Pi Coin’s early chart.
For now, Monad trades under both of those marks, with money flow still near its lows and momentum held by sellers. Unless those two conditions flip, the path of least resistance remains down, and the parallel with Pi Coin stays alive rather than fading.
The Bitcoin price in December is now a key focus, given that the market ended November on a weak note. Bitcoin dropped more than 17% this month, breaking its usual November trend and raising questions about whether the recent $80,000 bounce was the real bottom.
December has a mixed history for Bitcoin, and early data for this year shows some caution in both spot flows and on-chain signals. This analysis examines three key areas: seasonal performance, ETF flows, and insights from on-chain and price charts regarding the upcoming month.
Bitcoin’s December History and What ETF Flows Reveal
December is not usually a very strong month for Bitcoin. The long-term average return is 8.42%, but the median return is only 1.69%. The last four years also show mixed results, with three negative Decembers.
November added more caution. Instead of repeating its strong seasonal pattern, Bitcoin finished the month more than 17% lower.
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ETF flows echo that caution. November closed with –$3.48 billion in net outflows across US spot ETFs. The last clear multi-month inflow streak happened between April and July.
Since then, flows have been inconsistent, and November confirmed that institutions remained defensive.
MEXC Chief Analyst Shawn Young told BeInCrypto that stronger and more consistent ETF demand is essential before a meaningful rebound can begin:
“The most evident indicators of Bitcoin’s next upside rally would be a resurgence in risk sentiment, improved liquidity conditions, and market depth… When Bitcoin spot ETFs begin to see multiple days of inflows of $200–$300 million, it may indicate that institutional allocators are rotating back into BTC and the next leg up is underway,” he mentioned.
Hunter Rogers, Co-Founder of TeraHash, added that the setup for December still looks muted even after November’s flush-out:
“I don’t expect a highly-volatile December — neither a major jump nor a major drop. A quieter month with a slow upward movement looks more realistic. If ETF flows calm down and volatility stays low, Bitcoin could put in a small positive surprise. But this still feels like a repair phase,” he said.
Together, the seasonal pattern and ETF flows show that December may stay cautious unless ETF demand turns sharply higher.
On-Chain Metrics Still Show Weak Conviction
Bitcoin’s on-chain data still does not match what a confirmed December bottom usually looks like. Two core signals tell the same story: whales are still sending coins to exchanges, and long-term holders remain in distribution mode.
The Exchange Whale Ratio — which measures how much of total inflows come from the top 10 large wallets — climbed from 0.32 earlier this month to 0.68 on November 27.
Even after easing to 0.53, it remains in a zone that historically reflects whales preparing to sell, not accumulate. Durable bottoms rarely form when this ratio stays elevated across several weeks.
The Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks long-term investor behavior, also stays deep in the red. These wallets have been reducing their positions for more than six months. The last strong BTC rally began only after this metric turned green in late September — a milestone it has not achieved again yet.
Until long-term holders stop sending coins back into circulation, sustained upside becomes harder to support.
Shawn believes that a true shift begins only when long-term sellers step aside:
“The rally could begin when OG sellers stop transferring coins onto exchanges, whale accumulation turns positive again, and market depth starts to thicken across major venues,” he emphasized
Hunter Rogers echoed this view, linking any trend reversal to cleaner supply behavior from miners and long-term wallets:
“When long-term holders quietly move back into accumulation, it means supply pressure is fading,” he mentioned
So far, neither trend has flipped. Whales continue to send coins to exchanges, and long-term holders continue to distribute. Together, they signal that the Bitcoin price in December may attempt deeper retests before any strong recovery attempt.
Bitcoin Price In December: Key Risks And Confirmations
The Bitcoin price now sits at a point where even a small move can set the tone for December. The broader trend still leans bearish, and the chart structure confirms what the ETF and on-chain data already hint at.
BTC recently slipped below the lower band of a bear flag that has been building for weeks. This breakdown suggests a possible extension to $66,800, although the market may not reach that level immediately if liquidity remains stable.
For December, the first major line to watch is $80,400. That level acted as a rebound zone earlier this month, but it remains fragile.
A clean close below $80,400 opens room for new lows, aligning with what Shawn Young believes is still “a plausible liquidity sweep” before any stronger recovery attempt.
Here is what he said in an exclusive bit, giving the market some hope as well:
“Bitcoin’s market setup suggests a wick-style liquidity sweep rather than a prolonged breakdown,” he believes
On the upside, the structure only flips if BTC reclaims $97,100 — the midpoint of the larger pole-and-flag setup. A daily close above that zone would erase the bear-flag breakdown and begin a move toward resistance near $101,600.
Hunter also pointed out that reclaiming higher trend levels only matters if volume rises along with it. As he put it:
“If Bitcoin holds above the breakout zone and volume improves, then the market can start treating that area as a durable floor,” he mentioned.
For December, that breakout zone sits between $93,900 and $97,100, which is where the chart, ETFs, and on-chain conditions need to switch from defensive to supportive.
Until those confirmations arrive, the downside remains more pronounced than the upside. A deeper Bitcoin price retest stays in play if ETF outflows accelerate or if whales continue to send coins to exchanges.
For now, the Bitcoin price in December begins with the OG crypto sitting between two critical walls — $80,400 as the last defensive floor, and $97,137 as the ceiling that can reset momentum.
XRP price enters December after a weak November, with the token down nearly 13% for the month. December has often appeared strong on paper due to the 2017 outlier, but recent years have shown much tamer returns.
With ETF inflows rising, long-term holders selling, and XRP trading near a key resistance zone, traders want to know if December can offer a cleaner setup. This analysis looks at XRP’s seasonal history, on-chain behavior, and the levels that matter most.
December History And ETF Momentum For XRP: A Mixed Bag?
At first glance, December looks like a strong month for XRP, with an average gain of about 69.6%. But the median return is –3.16%, showing that the +818% surge in 2017 inflated the long-term average.
A more realistic comparison comes from recent years, with a gain of 6.94% in 2024 and 1.62% in 2023.
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November 2025 has been weak. XRP is down almost 13%, which makes traders doubt whether the positive December seasonality still applies.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, believes this December could behave differently because institutional demand is now active through ETFs. He told BeInCrypto:
“December is likely to look very different for XRP this year, mainly because institutional demand has now arrived… XRP enters the month on the back of the momentum generated from the ETF buzz, which has attracted substantial institutional interest and capital from the outset,” he said.
He also noted that XRP is already on a multi-day ETF inflow streak totaling more than $640 million and added:
“ETF inflow sustainability will now likely be the major tailwind for XRP’s price action in December,” he believes
Youssef, however, still remains cautious. He warns:
“If the broader market environment weakens further and ETF flows reverse, XRP will likely follow BTC and ETH movements and retest $2”, he said.
Together, the mixed December history and the fresh ETF momentum show that XRP’s December depends heavily on whether institutional demand continues.
On-Chain Signals Aren’t The Most Bullish
XRP’s on-chain picture does not fully support a strong December yet. Long-term holders — especially those in the 1–3 year group — continue to reduce their balances.
This data comes from HODL Waves, which shows how supply is spread across different holding periods. Over the past month, the 1–2 year cohort dropped from 9.72% to 8.516%, and the 2–3 year cohort moved from 14.80% to 14.251%.
These changes may seem small, but they matter because these groups hold a significant share of the circulating supply. Their selling weakens any upside attempt.
“Long-term holders still control a disproportionate share of the circulating supply… XRP can record substantial gains in December only if institutional demand remains strong enough to offset any selling pressure from long-term holders,” he mentioned.
The cost basis heatmap reinforces the same risk. It shows the strongest supply cluster between $2.445 and $2.460, where about 1.749 billion XRP sits.
This is the exact area that has acted as resistance earlier. Even if ETF inflows remain strong, the XRP price still needs to break through this wall for a clean bullish trend to form.
Together, the long-term holder distribution and the heavy cost-basis cluster explain why the XRP price in December may need a significant push to gain momentum.
XRP Price In December: Key Levels And The Most Realistic Scenario
The XRP price trades near $2.196, just above the second rebound from $1.772. This forms a clear double-bottom structure — one bounce in October and another in late November.
The pattern supports a short-term recovery attempt, but XRP must clear $2.307 and then the key breakout level at $2.459. This level perfectly aligns with the cost basis heatmap clusters.
A clean daily close above $2.459 unlocks the next zone near $2.612. This lines up with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the cost-basis cluster, and Ray Youssef’s own view. As he said:
“A more realistic target for December is $2.60. A clear breakout above $2.60 would be the first firm indication of a bullish shift,” he highlighted.
The technical and fundamental targets both sit at $2.60–$2.61.
Cardano has had one of the weakest months in the market. The ADA price is down more than 31% in November, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum recovered 6–8% in the same period. Over the past seven days, the Cardano price has gained only about 1.9%, showing very little momentum.
Key supply and big money signals now point to deeper weakness unless conditions stabilize soon.
Supply Pressure Builds as Money Flow Weakens
Cardano’s recent move shows clear stress on two fronts: large money flow and coins moving across age bands.
The first signal comes from CMF (Chaikin Money Flow), which reflects the strength of big money. Between November 24 and November 28, ADA’s price reached a higher high, but CMF formed a lower high and then broke below its descending trendline, which had been in place since October 11.
The same breakdown occurred on November 2, and ADA fell by more than 20% after that move. CMF is also under zero this time, which usually means big capital is stepping back rather than flowing in.
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The correlation is clear. Between November 10 and November 17, the big money flow fell sharply by more than 240%, and ADA corrected by more than 36% in the same period and even in the following days.
The second red flag comes from the Spent Coins Age Band, which tracks how many coins across all holding groups move on a given day.
On November 29, it dropped to a monthly low of 93.23 million ADA. But instead of stabilizing as the month ended, the value jumped to 114.66 million — a roughly 23% increase. It is now at the highest weekly level.
A rise in spent coins means more supply moving, and when that happens, while money flow is weakening, pressure on the price often increases.
Both signals now align. Larger inflows are waning at the same time, and more supply is being released. Together, they create a backdrop where the ADA price struggles to hold any short-term bounce.
Key Levels Show Cardano Price Might Not Be Done Correcting Yet
ADA has been in a clear downtrend since November 11, and the broader structure has not reversed. Trend-based extension levels indicate where the Cardano price may move if pressure persists.
If ADA loses the $0.386 support, the next levels appear at $0.354 and $0.302. These are the natural continuation zones for this downtrend, especially if CMF stays below zero and spent-coin activity remains high.
A recovery is still possible, but it needs a clean break above $0.438 with a full candle close. Only then can ADA attempt a move back toward $0.607, but that requires two conditions to flip:
CMF must return to above zero, and the spent-coin reading must cool off again. Historically, whenever the Spent Coins Age Band spikes, ADA has struggled to sustain any recovery. The current rise reinforces that risk.
Currently, the Cardano price is trading near $0.419 and shows no signs of a reversal. Without improvements in money flow and supply movement, the 31% monthly drop may not be the final leg of this correction.
Pi Coin price has held up better than most majors through November, but the charts now show a mix of strength and early warning signs. November has been Pi’s calmest month since summer, and the token is still trying to turn green for only the third time this year.
The question now is whether this momentum can survive December, even do better than November, or if the larger downtrend reclaims control.
History And Its Negative Correlation With Bitcoin
Pi Coin is still young, so its price history leaves a short but clear story. Most of 2025 has been red. Only February and May printed green months. November is trying to join that list.
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What stands out is PI’s negative monthly correlation with Bitcoin, currently around –0.24. When Bitcoin drops, Pi often holds firmer or even rises. Since Bitcoin has been weakening since October, Pi has found support.
Over the last month, Pi is down only about 2.6%, while Bitcoin has dropped much more sharply. Almost 19%.
Weekly performance also reflects this. Pi is still up about 2.7% over the last seven days, making it one of the steadier coins during a weak market. However, some signals on the three-day chart now suggest that December could be more challenging than November.
Hidden Bearish Divergence Appears As Big Money Weakens
Pi Coin’s broader structure remains inside a converging falling wedge, which is usually a bullish pattern. The PI price is now close to the upper trendline of that wedge. A breakout from here would normally look positive. But two indicators show early weakness.
The first is the RSI divergence on the three-day chart. The RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures momentum. Between October 25 and November 24, Pi Coin made a lower high, but RSI made a higher high. This is a hidden bearish divergence. It usually means the downtrend underneath is still strong, even if the price looks stable.
The second is the CMF, or Chaikin Money Flow, which tracks whether large amounts of money enter or exit the market. CMF is still in negative territory on the three-day chart and is now sliding toward its ascending trendline.
The last time CMF revisited this trendline in early October, Pi dropped more than 42%.
Both signals together mean that PI’s November strength may not fully translate into December unless money returns and CMF avoids a breakdown.
Pi Coin Price Levels To Watch In December
The chart shows a simple picture. PI price needs to break $0.28 to build momentum. That level lines up with the wedge’s upper boundary.
A clean close above $0.28 can open moves to $0.36, and if momentum improves further, even $0.46 becomes possible. But the indicators suggest this is less likely unless CMF improves.
On the downside, $0.21 and $0.20 are the first levels to watch. A drop under $0.20 exposes the $0.18 zone. If Bitcoin suddenly flips bullish, PI’s negative correlation can cause short-term underperformance. That may pull the Pi Coin price toward the lower wedge band.
The most important line for December is $0.20. Maintaining that level preserves the long-term structure. Losing it brings $0.18, and possibly $0.15, back into view.
Pi Coin still has a chance to close the year stronger than expected. However, that depends entirely on CMF stabilizing and whether the falling wedge finally allows the price to break through $0.28.
There is hope still if Bitcoin weakens and the negative correlation makes Pi Coin more desirable to big money.
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