In response to the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s recent investor bulletin on crypto custody, BitGo CEO Mike Belshe has positioned his firm as the only provider offering all the custody options described by the SEC.

It comes only days after BitGo secured regulatory approval to operate as a bank, effectively expanding its institutional services.

BitGo Claims It Can Do What No Other Crypto Custodian Can

In a post on X (Twitter), Belshe emphasized that the BitGo exchange enables institutions to combine self-custody and third-party custody into a single hybrid strategy, creating custom risk profiles that no other provider can replicate.

“BitGo stands alone as the only provider delivering an institutional-grade platform for every option described by the SEC,” Belshe wrote. “Our clients no longer have to choose between security and control—they can have both.”

The SEC bulletin, released on December 12, 2025, outlined the basics of crypto custody for retail investors, defining two primary models:

• Self-custody, where investors hold their private keys, and
• Third-party custody, where a qualified custodian manages assets.

While most providers require clients to pick one model, BitGo allows institutions to utilize both simultaneously.

Under BitGo’s framework, 90% of client assets can be stored in BitGo Trust cold storage, meeting standards of regulatory compliance, insurance, and security.

The remaining 10% can reside in self-custody hot wallets, enabling real-time transactions and operational flexibility.

This hybrid approach mitigates single points of failure. If self-custody keys are lost, assets in the trust remain safe, while traditional exchanges would risk freezing all funds in the event of insolvency.

BitGo Bank & Trust, NA, a federally chartered national bank, underpins the platform’s third-party custody solution. Subject to regular SOC 1 Type 2 and SOC 2 Type 2 audits, the bank supports more than 1,400 coins and tokens under segregated accounts, backed by a $250 million insurance policy from Lloyd’s of London syndicates.

Curious about crypto wallets and how to store and access crypto assets? Check out our Crypto Asset Custody Basics Investor Bulletin.https://t.co/x4HMYMHLAe pic.twitter.com/bSbP25nzOc

— U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (@SECGov) December 13, 2025

According to Belshe, BitGo does not rehypothecate, lend, or commingle client assets, maintaining strict 1:1 custody standards.

For self-custody, BitGo provides wallets with 2-of-3 Multi-Sig or MPC threshold security. Clients retain two keys while BitGo holds one for co-signing, enabling policy controls without compromising autonomy.

Together with the third-party trust, these options are consolidated on a single dashboard, providing clients with full transparency, flexibility, and control across various custody models.

BitGo Aligns with SEC Questions While Offering Full Custody Flexibility

BitGo also addresses the seven questions the SEC recommends investors ask when selecting a custodian. These include:

• Background verification
• Asset coverage
• Storage protocols
• Use of assets
• Privacy protections, and
• Fee structures.

By answering these questions, BitGo demonstrates that institutions can manage their crypto assets securely, compliantly, and efficiently.

As regulators increasingly scrutinize crypto custody, BitGo’s model sets a new industry benchmark: one that combines compliance, operational control, and insurance coverage on a unified platform.

Belshe’s assertion highlights the growing demand from institutions seeking both the security of qualified custody and the autonomy of self-custody. Such a combination was previously unavailable in a single interface.

The assertions come only days after BitGo received a conditional approval to become a national trust bank. Others include Ripple, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos.

We're pleased to announce that BitGo has met the conditions for full approval and is now a federally chartered bank for digital assets.

Hear more from BitGo CEO @mikebelshe on Bloomberg News 👇 pic.twitter.com/jf4f9MzPAK

— BitGo (@BitGo) December 12, 2025

In a sector where asset security and regulatory compliance often conflict, BitGo’s hybrid model may represent the next evolution of institutional crypto custody.

The post Mike Belshe Claims BitGo Outsmarts the SEC’s Custody Rules appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Experts are increasingly signaling a potential crypto bull run in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, driven by a convergence of macroeconomic factors.

Analysts suggest Bitcoin could surge between $300,000 and $600,000 if these catalysts materialize.

Five Macro Trends Fueling a Potential Rally in Q1 2026

A combination of five key trends is creating what analysts describe as a “perfect storm” for digital assets.

1. Fed Balance Sheet Pause Removes Headwind

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT), which drained liquidity throughout 2025, ended recently.

Simply halting the liquidity drain is historically bullish for risk assets. Data from previous cycles suggest Bitcoin can rally up to 40% when central banks stop contracting their balance sheets.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen indicated that early 2026 could be the time when markets begin to feel the impact of the Fed ending its QT.

In 2019, the Fed announced QT would end on August 1st.

The balance sheet of the Fed continued dropping in August despite QT having officially ended because the last round of treasury maturities did not settle until mid August.

Just because QT ends December 1st does not mean the…

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) December 1, 2025

2. Rate Cuts Could Return

The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, with its commentary and Goldman Sachs forecasts indicating interest rate cuts could resume in 2026, potentially bringing rates down to 3–3.25%.

Goldman: "We expect another Fed cut in December, followed by two more moves in March and June 2026 that take the funds rate to 3-3.25%."

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 23, 2025

Lower rates typically increase liquidity and boost appetite for speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

3. Improved Short-End Liquidity

Increased Treasury bill purchases or other support at the short end of the yield curve could ease funding pressures and reduce short-term rates. The Fed says it will start technical buying of Treasury bills to manage market liquidity.

“[buying is] solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time, thus supporting effective control of our policy rate…these issues are separate from and have no implications for the stance of monetary policy,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The Fed periodically comes in during short-term funding markets amid instances of liquidity imbalances. These imbalances manifest in the overnight repo market, where banks borrow cash in exchange for Treasuries.

Recently, multiple indicators point to a rising short-term funding pressure, including:

• Money market funds sitting on elevated levels of cash,
• T-bill issuance tightening as the Treasury shifted its borrowing mix, and
• Increasing seasonal demand for liquidity.

The Fed initiated a controlled purchase plan of Treasury bills to prevent short-term interest rates from deviating from the target Federal Funds Rate. These are the shortest-maturity government securities, typically ranging from a few weeks to one year in duration.

While not a classic QE move, this measure could still serve as a significant liquidity tailwind for crypto markets.

For Q1 2026, the broader implications for risk assets, such as crypto and equities, are generally positive but moderate, stemming from a shift in Fed policy toward maintaining or gradually expanding liquidity.

4. Political Incentives Favor Stability

With US midterm elections scheduled for November 2026, policymakers are likely to favor market stability over disruption.

This environment reduces the risk of sudden regulatory shocks and enhances investor confidence in risk assets.

“If the stock market in the USA falters before the midterm elections, the current US administration will be held accountable – hence they will do everything they can to keep things going in equities (and crypto,” wrote macro researcher Thorsten Froehlich.

5. The Employment “Paradox”

Weakening labor market data, such as soft employment or modest layoffs, often triggers dovish Fed responses.

Softer labor conditions increase pressure on the Fed to ease policy, indirectly creating more liquidity and favorable conditions for cryptocurrencies.

Expert Outlook Suggests Bullish Sentiment Growing

Industry observers are aligning with the macro view. Alice Liu, Head of Research at CoinMarketCap, forecasts a crypto market comeback in February and March 2026, citing a combination of positive macro indicators.

“We are going to see a market comeback in Q1 of 2026. February and March will be a bull market again, based on a combination of macro indicators,” Binance reported, citing said Alice Liu, Head of Research, CoinMarketCap

Some analysts are even more optimistic. Crypto commentator Vibes predicts Bitcoin could reach $300,000 to $600,000 in Q1 2026. This reflects extreme bullish sentiment amid improving liquidity and easing macro conditions.

CRYPTO IS ABOUT TO HAVE THE BIGGEST PUMP WE'VE EVER SEEN IN OUR LIVES

I'M EXPECTING ANYWHERE BETWEEN $300K AND $600K IN Q1 2026

— Vibes (@Vibesmetax) December 14, 2025

Currently, market participation remains muted. Bitcoin open interest has declined, reflecting cautious trader sentiment.

However, if these macroeconomic tailwinds materialize, consolidation could quickly give way to a significant surge, setting the stage for a historic start to 2026 in the crypto markets.

The post 5 Reasons Q1 2026 Could Spark the Biggest Crypto Bull Run Yet appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Markets are bracing for a potentially pivotal week for Bitcoin as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) heads into its December 18–19 policy meeting. Expectations point to a near-certain rate hike.

Prediction markets and macro analysts alike are converging on the same conclusion: Japan is poised to raise rates by 25 basis points. Such a move could reverberate far beyond its domestic bond market and into global risk assets, especially Bitcoin.

Bank of Japan Rate Hike Puts Bitcoin’s Liquidity Sensitivity Back in Focus

Polymarket is currently assigning a 98% probability of a BOJ hike, with a measly 2% wagering that policymakers will hold interest rates steady.

The general sentiment among crypto analysts is that this is not good for Bitcoin, with the pioneer crypto already trading below the $90,000 psychological level.

Polymarket is pricing in a 🇯🇵 BOJ rate hike with 98% certainty right now.

This is not good… 👀 pic.twitter.com/Huace8iTBk

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) December 14, 2025

If implemented, the move would take Japan’s policy rate to 75 basis points, a level not seen in nearly two decades. While modest by global standards, the shift is significant because Japan has long been the world’s primary source of inexpensive leverage.

For decades, institutions borrowed yen at ultra-low rates and deployed that capital into global equities, bonds, and crypto, a strategy known as the yen carry trade. That trade is now under threat.

“For decades, the Yen has been the #1 currency people would borrow & convert into other currencies & assets… That carry trade is diminishing now, as Japanese bond yields are rising rapidly,” wrote analyst Mister Crypto.

If yields continue to climb, leveraged positions funded in yen may be unwound, forcing investors to sell risk assets to repay debt.

Liquidity Fears Grow Amid Bitcoin’s BOJ Track Record

The historical backdrop is fueling anxiety in crypto markets. Bitcoin is currently trading at $88,956, down 1.16% in the last 24 hours.

However, traders are focused less on the current price and more on what has happened after previous BOJ hikes.

• In March 2024, the price of Bitcoin fell by roughly 23%.
• In July 2024, it dropped around 25%.
•  Following the January 2025 hike, BTC slid more than 30%.

Against this backdrop, several traders see a troubling pattern, urging investors to brace for volatility this week.

“Every time Japan hikes rates, Bitcoin dumps 20–25%. Next week, they will hike rates to 75 bps again. If the pattern holds, BTC will dump below $70,000 on December 19. Position accordingly,” cautioned analyst 0xNobler.

This week, therefore, analysts see the Bank of Japan as the biggest threat to the Bitcoin price, with a play to $70,000 now in the cards.

THE BANK OF JAPAN MIGHT BE BITCOIN’S BIGGEST ENEMY

Japan holds the most US debt.
Every time they hike, Bitcoin bleeds:

March 2024: -23%
July 2024: -30%
Jan 2025: -31%

Next hike: Dec 19
Next move: loading…

If the pattern repeats, $70K is in play. pic.twitter.com/R5916R702I

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) December 14, 2025

Similar projections have been echoed across crypto-focused accounts, with repeated references to a potential drop below $70,000 if history rhymes. Such a move would constitute a 20% drop below current levels.

Regime Shift or Liquidity Shock? Why Traders Are Split on the BOJ–Fed Policy Mix

Yet not everyone agrees that a BOJ hike spells inevitable downside. A competing macro narrative argues that Japan’s tightening, when paired with US Federal Reserve rate cuts, could ultimately be bullish for the crypto market.

Macro analyst Quantum Ascend framed the situation as a regime shift rather than a liquidity shock.

Japan raising rates has a lot of people worried about the potential impact on the market. 🚨

Couple that with the Fed cutting rates, and it's seemingly a mixed picture.

But it's NOT.

This is EXTREMELY BULLISH for crypto‼️

Here's why ⬇️

— Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend) December 13, 2025

According to this view, Fed cuts would inject dollar liquidity and weaken the USD, while gradual BOJ hikes would strengthen the yen without meaningfully destroying global liquidity.

The result, Quantum Ascend argues, is capital rotation into risk assets with asymmetric upside, crypto’s “sweet spot.”

Still, near-term conditions remain fragile. The Great Martis cautioned that bond markets are already forcing the BOJ’s hand.

“This could trigger the carry trade unwind and cause havoc in equities,” the analyst warned.

The analyst also pointed to broadening tops in major stock indices and globally rising yields as signs of mounting stress.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price action reflects the uncertainty. The pioneer crypto’s price has been largely flat through December, marking what analysts call a very choppy period into the end of the year.

Specifically, analyst Daan Crypto Trades cites low liquidity and limited conviction ahead of year-end holidays.

With equities flashing topping signals, yields breaking higher, and Bitcoin historically sensitive to Japan-driven liquidity shifts, the BOJ’s decision is shaping up to be one of the most consequential macro catalysts of the year.

Whether it triggers another sharp drawdown or sets the stage for a post-volatility crypto rally may depend less on the hike itself and more on how global liquidity responds in the weeks that follow.

The post Bank of Japan Rate Hike Could Trigger 20-30% Bitcoin Decline as Markets Price 98% Probability appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin, gold, and silver prices continue to trade with bullish biases this week, as the pioneer crypto and the two commodity safe havens see the Fed’s interest rate decision through a rearview mirror.

After policymakers decided to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, data show that the stock market is no longer flashing fear, a major break last seen in early October.

Bitcoin, Gold, Silver: Updated Price Outlook as Stock Market Calm Returns

The US stock market hit an all-time high on Thursday, December 11, with analysts projecting further upside. It follows the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates, a move that usually lifts the stock market.

Lower borrowing costs boost corporate profits, encourage business investment, and increase the value of future earnings. Similarly, cheaper credit increases consumer spending, while investors shift from bonds to equities in search of higher returns.

Together, this improves liquidity and risk appetite, typically driving stock prices higher across most sectors. This explains why the stock market is no longer flashing fear.

JUST IN 🚨: Stock Market says Goodbye to Fear for the first time since early October 🫡🥳🫂 pic.twitter.com/vSd1qLkbkO

— Barchart (@Barchart) December 11, 2025

Meanwhile, Bitcoin, gold, and silver are evoking similar optimism, with XAU and XAG prices surging as holding costs decline and inflation expectations rise.

Bullish Reversal Builds for Bitcoin Price as Liquidity Flows Return

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the price recovering within a well-defined ascending channel, which formed after the sharp correction from its early October highs.

Despite still trading below the major exponential moving averages (50 and 100 at $96,583 and $101,943, respectively), BTC is showing early signs of trend stabilization. This is seen with each recent low forming higher than the previous one, a classic early-stage recovery pattern.

The bullish Volume Profiles (green horizontal bars) reveal a significant high-volume node around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting bulls could defend $90,358 as critical support.

This level may act as an anchoring point for price inflection, potentially serving as the jumping-off point for the next move north.

A decisive candlestick close above the $90,358 level could allow BTC to target the heavier liquidity cluster around $98,000–$103,000.

Meanwhile, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator remains neutral, suggesting room for expansion in either direction.

The histograms of the AO indicators (Awesome Oscillator) are edging toward positive territory and flashing green, suggesting bullish momentum is growing.

Nonetheless, short-term bullish continuation depends on maintaining the upward channel structure. Breaking below the lower boundary of the channel, which confluences with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $90,358, would expose BTC to bearish pressure, with the ensuing seller momentum likely to send BTC to the range between $86,000 and $80,600.

The main challenge remains reclaiming the EMAs, particularly the 50-day and 100-day, which cluster around $96,583 and $101,943.

Historically, BTC tends to accelerate once it breaks above these moving averages during mid-cycle consolidations.

Overall, BTC exhibits a controlled recovery, rising volume, and a constructive channel, but major confirmation will only come if bulls reclaim the $100,000 psychological level.

Gold Price’s Breakout Momentum Strengthens Above Key Resistance

The 4-hour chart for the XAU/USD trading pair shows the gold price teasing with a clean breakout from a long, compressing symmetrical triangle. This technical formation formed after the sharp $490 retracement (-11.19%) earlier in the quarter.

Symmetrical triangles at the top of an uptrend often behave as continuation patterns, where price consolidates before resuming its prior direction. Gold’s breakout aligns with this playbook, pushing above the downtrend line with strong momentum.

The measured move of the triangle projects an upside target of roughly $4,720, up by just over 11% above the breakout point.

Meanwhile, the gold price is currently stabilizing around $4,273, where the breakout candle closed. As long as Gold holds above the triangle’s upper boundary, the bullish structure remains intact.

Traders waiting to take long positions on XAU/USD should consider waiting for a successful retest of the upper trendline.

The RSI is mid-range but leaning bullish at 65, suggesting gold is still not overbought. Its trajectory shows rising momentum, typically a healthy setup for continuation.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines have crossed bullishly and are widening, a sign of increasing upward force.

Support levels to monitor sit at $4,180, $4,140, $4,098, and the deeper pivot at $3,998, which marks the base of the prior correction. As long as the gold price stays above these levels, bulls maintain control.

It is also worth noting that Gold’s breakout aligns with its broader macro trend: rising geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation expectations, and strong demand from central banks.

Central banks are ramping up gold purchases:

Global central banks purchased +53 tonnes of gold in October, the most since November 2024.

This marks a +194% jump compared to July, and the 3rd-straight monthly acceleration.

In the first 10 months of the year, central banks have… pic.twitter.com/7pZWyEjjvf

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 4, 2025

Technically, the structure supports the possibility of revisiting, and potentially surpassing, recent highs.

Silver Price’s Long-Term Cup-and-Handle Signal Targets Major Upside

The Silver price’s multi-decade chart is displaying one of the strongest long-term bullish structures in commodities, a giant multi-cycle Cup & Handle breakout.

The cup spans from the 1980 peak to the 2011 rejection, an 871% measured move. The handle, smaller but still powerful, forms a pattern between 2011 and 2024, showing a 152% measured move. Both formations converge at the same breakout line near $36, a level Silver has struggled to clear for over 40 years.

The latest candle shows a decisive, high-volume breakout far above this resistance, suggesting a structural shift rather than a temporary spike.

When a commodity breaks a multi-decade ceiling, price discovery can accelerate quickly due to lack of historical resistance.

However, the RSI is in overbought territory (above 80), but in long-term breakouts, this often reflects momentum rather than exhaustion. The MACD has crossed strongly into bullish territory, confirming the upward trend.

If the breakout sustains, the next key psychological level is $70, with the 1980/2011 all-time high zone, now near $50, flipped into support.

Silver soars to $64 for the first time in history 🚨📈 Dear God 🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/2ffpTOUB1E

— Barchart (@Barchart) December 11, 2025

Given the prolonged consolidation and tight multi-year supply constraints in the silver market, a move beyond historical highs cannot be ruled out.

However, Silver has historically remained volatile, so a retest of the $36 zone would be normal before a sustained continuation.

The post Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Gold, Silver as Stocks Move Out of the Fear Zone appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin, gold, and silver experienced a sudden surge in strength on Tuesday, the eve of what appears to be another Fed rate cut.

The pioneer crypto, as well as the two commodity safe havens, Gold and Silver, may face volatility around the Fed’s interest rate decision, even as XAG price breaks above $60/oz for the first time in history, now up +108% in 2025.

Top BTC, XAU, and XAG Price Targets Ahead of the Fed Cut

All eyes are on the Fed’s interest rate decision tomorrow and the subsequent Jerome Powell press conference. This is one of the most important macroeconomic events for Bitcoin and commodity safe havens this week.

Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that interest bettors see an 87.6% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates.

A Fed rate cut is generally a tailwind for Bitcoin as it injects liquidity into the financial markets. Gold is typically the cleanest and fastest beneficiary of rate cuts, while silver often lags gold initially, then outperforms during strong reflation moves. This is why silver tends to make violent upside moves after cuts once momentum builds.

• Gold reacts first and most predictably
• Bitcoin benefits as liquidity expands
• Silver often becomes the late-stage momentum winner

Based on current price action, however, markets are already pricing in the event, with traders already front-running a rate cut amid near-certain probabilities.

Bitcoin Races for $100,000 Ahead of Fed’s Interest Rate Decision

The Bitcoin price is trading with a bullish bias, consolidating within an ascending parallel channel since bottoming out at $80,600 on November 21. As long as the price remains confined within this technical formation, the prospects for further upside remain alive.

Based on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, momentum is rising, which could push BTC further north. Its position above the 50 threshold suggests significant buyer momentum, but a lot remains in the balance, as this midline level is also susceptible to a bearish takeover.

The Bitcoin price faces immediate resistance due to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $97,015, a roadblock in BTC’s path to the most critical Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8%, at $98,018.

This would be a key entry point for late bulls, such that if the Bitcoin price breaks cleanly through the level with strong volume, it would signal a strengthening trend. Such a directional bias would see the pioneer crypto extend a neck higher to $103,399, earmarked by the 50% midrange.

In a highly bullish case, BTC could reach the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling a strong trend.  

Conversely, if the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level holds as resistance, it would set the tone for a trend reversal.

Sellers pulling the trigger at current levels could see the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level give way as support, a move that could cause BTC to fall out of the ascending parallel channel.

Such a directional bias could send the pioneer crypto’s price toward the $80,600 support floor. Such a move would constitute a drop of almost 15% from current levels.

Gold may be in a Stage A Classic Reload Zone

The gold price could sell off towards the lows of $4,199 and potentially violate the rising support trendline before reversing higher. Based on the RSI, momentum is fading, putting the XAU price at risk of a correction.

However, with the RSI still above the 50 threshold and strong downward support provided by the confluence of the 50- and 100-day EMAs at $4,202 and $4,203, respectively, the price could forge higher.

Critical support resides in the range between $4,178 and $4,192. If this zone holds, the bull structure would remain intact.

Meanwhile, the key resistance is at $4,241, with a clean break above this supplier congestion level likely to spark an acceleration.

In such a directional bias, targets would be $4,260, or in a highly bullish case, $4,300 before a potential recapture of the $4,381 all-time high (ATH).  

Therefore, current price levels could be a classic reload zone, with every dip providing a buying opportunity for late bulls.

Silver is up 6x as Much as the S&P 500 YTD

The silver price is experiencing one of the strongest bull runs in stock market history, up six times the S&P 500’s year-to-date (YTD) gain. The XAG/USD price is now on track for the largest 12-month gain since 1979.

After establishing a new all-time high of $60.794, silver is on price discovery levels, with potential for further upside.

On the 15-minute chart below, the XAG/USD price shows a clean bullish continuation breakout. The silver price has decisively cleared the prior range high near $58.83 and accelerated to price discovery, confirming a shift from consolidation to expansion.

All key EMAs (50/100/200) are now stacked bullishly and turning higher, signaling strong short-term trend alignment and trend strength.

Momentum supports the move, as evidenced by the RSI above 73, indicating strong buying pressure. However, this RSI position also warns of near-term overheating and the risk of a shallow pullback or consolidation before continuation.

Structurally, the former resistance at $58.80 to $59.00 now acts as first support, while the next psychological and technical target sits around $61.00–$61.50.

As long as the silver price holds above the rising 50-EMA (red), the bias remains buy-the-dip, with downside risk increasing only on a sustained breakdown back below $59.00.

The post Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Gold, Silver: Is the Fed-Driven Rally Built to Last? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee as global markets quietly shift with Japan’s bond yields surging and the BoJ hinting at a rate hike. The decades-long yen carry trade, which fueled stocks, crypto, and risk assets, could be unraveling faster than anyone expects.

Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Braces as BoJ May End Decades of Cheap Money

Global markets are bracing for a potential macro shock as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) prepares for its December 18–19 monetary policy meeting.

Traders now price a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike, following signals from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and persistent inflation above 2%.

Japan’s 2-year government bond yield has climbed above 1%, its highest since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, while the 10-year JGB hit a 17-year high, highlighting rising borrowing costs.

Why the Yen Carry Trade Matters

For nearly three decades, the yen carry trade fueled global risk-taking. Investors borrowed yen at ultra-low rates, converted it to dollars, and deployed capital into higher-yielding assets, including US stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

When Japan raises rates or the yen strengthens, this trade unwinds violently, forcing rapid asset sales.

The consequences are not hypothetical: in August 2024, a BoJ hike triggered a $600 billion crypto market wipe, including Bitcoin falling to $49,000 and $1.14 billion in liquidations. Analysts warn that a similar scenario could repeat if Japanese yields rise further.

🚨 The BOJ is about to shake crypto markets
🇯🇵Japan's likely rate hike to 80% Dec 18-19 – this threatens the yen carry trade that's been funding $BTC & risk assets for years
Last time they hiked was Aug 2024.

🔥BTC crashed to $49K
$600B wiped from crypto
$1.14B in liquidations…

— PaulBarron (@paulbarron) December 5, 2025

Besides Paul Barron, analyst Great Martis also calls the BoJ hike a potential “canary in the coal mine” for crypto and global markets.

“When the reckless BOJ is forced to raise rates, the yen carry trade will begin to unwind, causing market turmoil. Canary in the coal mine,” Martis wrote in a post.

Meanwhile, early signs of stress are emerging, as hedge funds and institutional investors closely monitor the simultaneous tightening of liquidity in Japan, the US, and China. This rare convergence could accelerate deleveraging.

Nonetheless, counterpoints exist. Analyst Negentropic notes that most leverage has already been flushed since October. In the same tone, Bob Elliot argues the yen carry trade is largely muted.

The Yen Carry Trade Is Dead

Despite a falling FX and low rates, the yen carry trade remains muted. Naked FX borrowing ended with the GFC, with the only thing left a lingering nostalgia for a trade that mattered 20yrs ago.https://t.co/1h7Zlp3KVQ pic.twitter.com/2llIZerTqt

— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) December 2, 2025

Yet even modest unwinding could pressure highly leveraged crypto positions and risk assets globally.

If QE Is Not the Immediate Solution, What’s Next for Bitcoin and Global Risk Assets?

Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, emphasizes that quantitative easing (QE) historically follows a crisis, not routine rate adjustments.

The current tightening in Japan, the US, and China suggests that markets may face further drawdowns before any liquidity support arrives. Investors betting on easy money could face sharper-than-expected volatility.

Crypto markets are often the first to absorb funding shocks, making Bitcoin and Ethereum bellwethers for liquidity stress.

With the BoJ’s rate decision looming, traders should monitor:

• JGB yields,
• USD/JPY levels, and
• Leveraged positions.

If Japan continues tightening, global deleveraging could persist into 2026, testing the resilience of both crypto and traditional markets.

The era of free Japanese money appears to be coming to an end. Markets now face a higher-volatility environment, where fundamental value may replace cheap leverage as the main driver of asset prices.

Chart of the Day

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

• Why XRP price refuses to rise despite Ripple’s mega moves.
• Polymarket trader makes $1 million on Google search bets, sparking insider trading fears.
• Bitcoin exchange supply nears 5-year low after $2 billion buy this week.
• IMF warns stablecoins pose financial stability risks as cross-border flows surpass Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• Four reasons December could be the best time to start DCA into altcoins.
• Wolfe Research identifies ‘maximum disagreement’ as key Bitcoin market signal: What this means.
• Yi He to women: “No one goes easy on you in business.”

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Company
Strategy (MSTR)	$186.01	$184.62 (-0.75%)
Coinbase (COIN)	$274.05	$273.30 (-0.27%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)	$27.57	$27.73 (+0.58%)
MARA Holdings (MARA)	$12.44	$12.37 (-0.57%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT)	$15.59	$15.57 (-0.13%)
Core Scientific (CORZ)	$17.08	$17.09 (+0.059%)

The post Yen Carry Trade Collision: Bank of Japan’s Rate Shock Aims at Bitcoin | US Crypto News appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee and brace for Wall Street’s latest twist: a Bitcoin-native company is about to hit the NYSE. Shareholders have approved a major merger, putting billions in Bitcoin under one roof and signaling a shift in how crypto meets traditional markets.

Crypto News of the Day: Twenty One Capital Gains NYSE Approval

Cantor Equity Partners (CEP) shareholders voted to approve the merger with Twenty One Capital, clearing the final major hurdle for the business combination.

The deal, subject to standard closing conditions, is expected to finalize on December 8, 2025. Following the completion, the merged entity will operate under the Twenty One Capital name and begin trading the next day (December 9).

Strike CEO Jack Mallers will lead the company, which Tether and Bitfinex hold as majority owners. The firm markets itself as the first Bitcoin-native company preparing for a public listing, offering investors a regulated pathway to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency.

“Following the consummation of such transactions, the combined company will operate as Twenty One Capital, Inc., and its shares of Class A common stock are expected to trade on the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) beginning on December 9, 2025, under the symbol XXI,” read an excerpt in the announcement.

Public Equity Exposure to Bitcoin Amid Crypto and Banking Frictions

Twenty One Capital currently holds 43,514 BTC, valued at approximately $4 billion, making it the third-largest Bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies, after Strategy and MARA Holdings.

The firm emphasizes “capital-efficient Bitcoin accumulation” and plans to introduce a “Bitcoin Per Share” metric. This metric would enable shareholders to track Bitcoin holdings in real time with auditable on-chain proof-of-reserves.

“This listing provides a transparent, regulated way for investors to access Bitcoin without directly holding the asset,” the company added.

The NYSE debut also positions Twenty One Capital as a bridge between crypto-native operations and traditional equity markets, potentially reshaping investor access to digital assets.

“…offers investors a new way to gain BTC exposure via the equity markets,” commented Conor Kenny, a popular user on x (Twitter).

The announcement comes amid wider discussions about the banking sector’s relationship with crypto firms. In late November, Jack Mallers revealed that JPMorgan Chase abruptly closed his personal accounts without explanation, fueling fears of “debanking” in the crypto industry.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino described the move as an opportunity for crypto executives to operate independently of centralized financial institutions.

I think it's for the best

— Paolo Ardoino 🤖 (@paoloardoino) November 23, 2025

These tensions coincide with broader market scrutiny. JPMorgan is currently monitoring potential MSCI reclassification rules that could impact companies with significant Bitcoin holdings, such as MicroStrategy.

Analysts estimate that index changes could trigger billions in passive fund outflows, potentially as high as $9 billion for MicroStrategy.

As Twenty One Capital prepares to trade under the “XXI” ticker on December 9, market participants will watch for trading volumes, investor appetite, and the reception of the Bitcoin-per-share metric.

The listing could set a precedent for other crypto-native firms seeking regulated market exposure, potentially broadening institutional and retail participation in the Bitcoin economy.

Chart of the Day

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

• Kevin Hassett sparks a crypto–bond market split as Fed race heats up.
• One bullish XRP metric hits a 3-month high — So why can’t the price break out?
• Peter Schiff to CZ: ‘Bitcoin payments? They’re just liquidated bets.’
• Vienna crypto murder shocks Europe as kidnapping wave escalates.
• Citadel Securities turns against DeFi while pouring $500 million into Ripple.
• Three crypto narratives surge in December 2025—Top picks for 2026?
• Tom Lee’s relentless ETH buying puts BMNR stock on a possible 55% breakout path.

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Strategy (MSTR)	$188.39	$187.82 (-0.30%)
Coinbase (COIN)	$276.92	$275.85 (-0.39%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)	$27.05	$26.93 (-0.44%)
MARA Holdings (MARA)	$12.47	$12.45 (-0.16%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT)	$15.64	$15.57 (-0.45%)
Core Scientific (CORZ)	$16.55	$16.50 (-0.30%)

The post Wall Street Braces as Bitcoin Goes Public for the First Time | US Crypto News appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee to read how the Bitcoin mining sector is changing. Skyrocketing costs, collapsing fees, and the rise of AI are forcing miners to rethink their playbook, turning once-stable operations into a battleground for next-generation compute power.

Crypto News of the Day: AI Takes Over Bitcoin Mining Racks as Costs Explode and Profitability Craters

The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining Report Q4 2025 reported that the sector has hit its breaking point. Production costs have surged to all-time highs, hash price has collapsed, and artificial intelligence (AI) is now outbidding miners for their own infrastructure, triggering the most dramatic structural shift the sector has ever faced.

The industry entered Q2 2025 with a brutal new reality:

• The average cash cost to mine one BTC among public miners jumped to approximately $74,600,
• All-in costs soared to $137,800.
• Transaction fees, once a buffer for miner revenue, fell below 1% of block rewards in May and June, the weakest contribution since the 2024 halving.

Yet even as margins collapsed, the Bitcoin network continued to climb, smashing through 1 Zetta hash/s for the first time in August.

Public miners contributed only about 80 EH/s of year-to-date growth, meaning most of the expansion is now coming from private operators, sovereign miners, and well-capitalized energy players with vastly cheaper power.

The result: miners are being diluted by hashrate growth they are no longer driving.

AI Moves In — And It Pays 10–20× More Per Megawatt

A far bigger disruption is unfolding at the infrastructure level. Industrial-scale mining campuses, comprising 100MW to 1GW sites, share nearly identical power, cooling, and rack density requirements with modern AI datacenters.

That overlap has turned mining facilities into prime targets for hyperscalers.

Deals from Google–TeraWulf, Google–Cipher, and multi-site agreements with Fluidstack signal the same direction, that big-tech is moving into miner-built capacity at a premium.

The math explains why. Bitcoin mining yields roughly $1 million per megawatt, while AI compute generates $10 million to $20 million per megawatt.

No miner can ignore that spread.

Industry Splits: AI Megacampuses vs. Mobile, Ultra-Low-Cost Miners

The sector is now diverging into two clear models:

1. 1. Megascale miners → fully or partially converting to AI/HPC

These facilities can upgrade their electrical topology and uptime standards to meet enterprise requirements. They’re signing decade-long contracts and shifting from volatile block rewards to stable, capacity-based revenue.

2. Low-cost, mobile miners → shifting to stranded energy

Miners unable to compete with AI are moving off-grid: flare gas, remote hydro, and surplus renewables. Portable rigs are being deployed everywhere cheap energy exists, echoing mining’s early decentralized roots.

This migration marks a long-term reshaping of the industry, and not a temporary cycle.

According to a CoinShares report:

• Hashprice averaged approximately $50 per PH/s/day throughout Q2, continuing its post-halving slide.
• With difficulty rising, fees stagnant, and Bitcoin trading mostly sideways, older ASIC fleets have been forced offline.

Analysts expect hashprice to remain range-bound between $37–55 per PH/s/day through 2028 unless BTC rallies far faster than hashrate growth.

A Structural Shift: AI Outbids Bitcoin

For the first time in Bitcoin’s history, miners are being priced out of their own infrastructure.

AI’s superior economics, hyperscaler deal flow, and the rising cost of industrial mining are pushing the industry into a permanent transformation.

The Bitcoin network remains strong, where hashrate is still climbing, but the business of mining is being rewritten fast.

This puts miners at an impasse, to either go big into AI, or go remote into stranded power.

Chart of the Day

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

• Yi He appointed Binance co-CEO amidst legal and regulatory challenges.
• Kevin Hassett as Trump’s Fed pick: How will his policy impact crypto in 2026?
• Ethereum Fusaka goes live today: Can it trigger a Pectra-like rally?
• Is Bitcoin ready to end its 5-week downtrend or face rejection at $95,000?
• Vanguard ‘degen effect’ fuels 10% surge for Bitcoin in explosive rebound.
• PENGU token jumps 30% on NHL Deal, but $108 million sell-off sparks fear.
• Binance marks 3 altcoins for delisting: Everything you need to know.
• V-shape bounce, rare Bitcoin signal, $13 billion Fed shock: What’s coming?

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Company	At the Close of December 2	Pre-Market Overview
Strategy (MSTR)	$181.33	$185.83 (+2.48%)
Coinbase (COIN)	$263.26	$269.39 (+2.33%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)	$25.36	$25.90 (+2.13%)
MARA Holdings (MARA)	$11.91	$12.27 (+3.02%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT)	$15.22	$15.55 (+2.17%)
Core Scientific (CORZ)	$15.82	$16.03 (+1.33%)

The post Bitcoin Mining Hit Its Breaking Point — Now AI Is Taking Over Its Racks | US Crypto News appeared first on BeInCrypto.

PENGU rallied over 30% in early December 2025 following news of a major collaboration between Pudgy Penguins and the National Hockey League (NHL) for the 2026 Discover NHL Winter Classic.

Despite the price jump, on-chain data shows persistent transfers of PENGU from the project’s deployment address to centralized exchanges. This trend has sparked debate about the sustainability of PENGU’s recovery.

NHL Partnership Sparks PENGU Rally

PENGU, the Pudgy Penguins community token, experienced a notable surge during the first week of December. It has increased by almost 30% in the last 24 hours, trading at $0.01246 as of this writing.

This price increase aligned with Pudgy Penguins’ announcement of an NHL partnership lasting from December to January.

The collaboration launched at Art Week Miami, highlighted by activations, giveaways, and live appearances at NHL events.

Pudgy Penguins X @NHL

We will be collaborating with the NHL for the 2026 Discover NHL Winter Classic from December to January, starting this week at Art Week Miami.

From giveaways to Pengu meeting NHL fans and more, these activations will bring Pengu into the world of the NHL. pic.twitter.com/rcnIAT6fet

— Pudgy Penguins (@pudgypenguins) December 2, 2025

The partnership spans December through January, beginning with activations at Art Week Miami. The campaign, supported by an animated video of cartoon penguins skating across an ice rink, reflects the brand’s broader push into mainstream entertainment.

Once known primarily as an NFT collection, Pudgy Penguins has expanded into toys, physical events, and global licensing, now aiming to “own winter” through sports tie-ins.

The partnership reignited enthusiasm in the token. DEX trading volume for PENGU reached its monthly high in early December, as noted by Solscan. This surge reflected increased activity from traders responding to the partnership news.

Bullish sentiment received further support from whale accumulation. In late November, large investors acquired about $273,000 in PENGU, buying at nearly three times their average volume. Smart money inflows tracked $1.3 million from new addresses in early November.

At the same time, Bitso Exchange, the leading Latin American crypto exchange, announced a Q1 2026 launch of a perpetuals aggregator, featuring PENGU as a primary asset. This move targets the region’s $1.37 trillion remittance market.

$PENGU is there still hope ? after experiencing a pump of +35% blueprint of pengu with a potential increase of +359% to ATH$PENGU is the official community token of Pudgy Penguins, a web3 entertainment brand based on 8,888 unique NFTs launched on Ethereum in 2021 Acquired by… pic.twitter.com/kBIb0JPgtH

— Vespamatic.hl (@vespamatic96) December 3, 2025

However, with hype building around Pudgy Penguins’ new NHL partnership, traders now face a sharp contrast between bullish momentum and uneasy sell-pressure signals.

On-Chain Analysis: Selling Pressure Persists

Although price action turned positive, blockchain data identified ongoing token transfers. The PENGU deployment address has routinely moved about $3 million in tokens to centralized exchanges every few days.

On-chain analyst EmberCN reported that these transfers have continued, with the latest seen in early December.

“The most recent transfer was in the early hours of this morning,” they wrote.

Since mid-July, the address moved 3.881 billion PENGU tokens, worth $108 million, to centralized exchanges. This activity tracked directly with the decline in PENGU’s price, which fell from its $0.04 second peak to roughly $0.01.

Regular outflows from the project’s core wallet suggest ongoing selling or strategic distribution, challenging recent price gains.

Such token movements often prepare for sales or liquidity. In the PENGU ecosystem, however, the scale and sustained pace suggests ongoing distribution rather than routine liquidity management.

This dynamic creates tension between positive news, such as the NHL partnership, and continued selling from unlocked team or ecosystem tokens.

The post PENGU Token Jumps 30% on NHL Deal, But $108 Million Sell-Off Sparks Fear appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee, because today’s story is not what it first appears to be. MicroStrategy’s new $1.44 billion cash wall has sparked more questions than answers, landing at a moment when markets feel unusually tense, and every move seems to hint at something deeper beneath the surface.

Crypto News of the Day: MicroStrategy Builds USD Reserve as Market Panic Tests Saylor’s Bitcoin Doctrine

MicroStrategy’s latest move was supposed to calm nerves. Instead, it has become the new focal point of a market gripped by fear, speculation, and a fast-approaching liquidity stress test.

On Monday, Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) confirmed it has established a $1.44 billion USD Reserve. This cash buffer is designed to cover dividends and interest for up to 21 months.

$MSTR announces the formation of a $1.44 billion USD Reserve and an increase in its BTC Reserve to 650,000 $BTC. pic.twitter.com/e1tAhDUo9G

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) December 1, 2025

Strategy chair Michael Saylor also revealed that the firm has added 130 BTC to its already massive treasury.

“Strategy has acquired 130 BTC for ~$11.7 million at ~$89,960 per bitcoin. As of 11/30/2025, we hodl 650,000 BTC acquired for ~$48.38 billion at ~$74,436 per bitcoin,” Saylor indicated.

The announcement arrived barely a day after traders obsessively dissected Michael Saylor’s cryptic “green dot” comments. Speculation ranged from an MSTR buy to the firm adding to its BTC stockpile.

BREAKING: MicroStrategy establishes a $1.44B USD reserve for dividend payments.

This is the actual “Green Dot.”

— Conor Kenny (@conorfkenny) December 1, 2025

The new purchase brings the company’s holdings to 650,000 BTC, or roughly 3.1% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.

A Cash Reserve—Or a Warning Sign?

The company framed the USD Reserve as a strategic evolution. Saylor called it “the next step in our evolution” and essential for facing near-term volatility.

“…the reserve currently covers 21 months of Dividends. We intend to use this reserve to pay our Dividends and grow it over time,” Strategy CEO Phong Le indicated.

However, these remarks did not bring stability, but rather stress, coming after the MicroStrategy executive admitted to a scenario once considered unthinkable: a potential sale of Bitcoin.

In a recent interview, CEO Phong Le acknowledged a “kill switch” tied to two conditions:

• MicroStrategy’s stock trades below 1.0x mNAV—meaning the company is valued at less than the Bitcoin it owns.
• The firm cannot raise capital through equity or debt.

As of this writing, mNAV sits above 1x, pulling away from the 0.9x danger zone, below which, MicroStrategy could be pushed toward BTC-funded dividend obligations.

Markets are already on edge, with Jim Cramer, cited in a recent US Crypto News publication, issuing a warning.

“This kneejerk, somewhat vicious, decline smacks of anticipation of hedge funds blowing up over the Japan carry-trade… and Strategy/Bitcoin given that at this level they are almost the same thing,” wrote Cramer.

The line “almost the same thing” captures the structural shift: MicroStrategy has functionally become a leveraged Bitcoin ETF with a software company attached. That structure works spectacularly when Bitcoin rips higher, but compresses violently when liquidity tightens.

And liquidity is tightening fast.

MicroStrategy insists it faces no forced liquidation risk. However, the admission of a sale condition, combined with a $1.44 billion cash wall, marks a turning point.

Where Saylor once said, “We will never sell Bitcoin,” investors now have a measurable tripwire:
0.9× mNAV.

Bitcoin’s next move won’t just shape market sentiment; it may decide whether MicroStrategy remains the face of corporate Bitcoin accumulation or becomes the first high-profile test of its limits.

Chart of the Day

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

• Crypto funds roar back with $1.07 billion inflows as rate-cut hopes surge.
• Ripple wins Singapore approval as XRP whales drive market shift.
• Japan’s bond shock slams crypto: $640 Million liquidated as 10-year JGB hits 17-year high.
• 4 US economic events to shake Bitcoin sentiment in the first week of December 2025.
• Ethereum breaks down from key pattern, opening a path toward 28% crash.
• Fed to end QT: Could this trigger multi-year altcoin rally akin to 2019-2022?

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Company	At the Close of November 28	Pre-Market Overview
Strategy (MSTR)	$177.18	$168.10 (-5.12%)
Coinbase (COIN)	$272.82	$260.53 (-4.50%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)	$26.59	$25.30 (-4.85%)
MARA Holdings (MARA)	$11.81	$11.06 (-6.35%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT)	$16.13	$15.14 (-6.14%)
Core Scientific (CORZ)	$16.89	$16.37 (-3.07%)

The post MicroStrategy Builds $1.44 Billion Cash Wall Amid Rising Market Fear | US Crypto News appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Crypto markets sold off sharply after Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surged to its highest level since 2008. The move triggered a wave of global de-risking and one of the largest liquidation events in weeks.

The move erased billions of dollars in digital-asset value, highlighting just how exposed crypto remains to macroeconomic liquidity shifts far outside its own ecosystem.

Japan’s Yield Spike: The Yen Carry Trade Unwinds and Crypto Feels It First

The total crypto market cap declined by approximately 5% over the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices falling by more than 5%.

According to Coinglass, more than 217,000 traders were liquidated during the downturn, resulting in a loss of almost $640 million in positions.

This illustrates how quickly leverage can evaporate when global rates move violently.

The catalyst came from Tokyo, where the 10-year Japanese government bond yield spiked to 1.84%, a level not seen since April 2008.

BREAKING: Japan's 10Y Government Bond Yield surges to 1.84%, its highest level since April 2008.

This chart is concerning to say the least. pic.twitter.com/fBkMMyBnqy

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 1, 2025

The prevailing sentiment is that the yield breakout is more than just a technical move. It signals that the decades-long yen carry trade may finally be unwinding.

For nearly 30 years, Japan’s near-zero interest rates allowed investors to borrow cheaply in yen and deploy capital into higher-yielding assets abroad. Such avenues include:

• US Treasuries
• European bonds
• Risk assets like equities and crypto.

Rising yields in Japan threaten to reverse this flow, pulling capital back home and tightening liquidity globally.

“For 30 years, the Yen Carry Trade subsidized global arrogance — zero rates… free leverage… fake growth… entire economies built on borrowed time and borrowed money. Now Japan has reversed the switch. Rates climbed. Yen strengthened. And the world’s favourite ATM just turned into a debt-collector,” wrote data scientist ViPiN on X (Twitter).

When Japanese yields rise, global liquidity contracts, leading to a repricing across the market. This likely explains why Silver (XAG) has not yet experienced its Supercycle, and Bitcoin is dealing with late-cycle volatility.

“Japan is draining liquidity, Bitcoin is absorbing the shock, and Silver is preparing for the repricing of a lifetime,” stated one analyst in a post.

Crypto’s Sell-Off Isn’t Local, It’s a Macro Liquidity Crunch

Shanaka Anslem, an ideologist and popular user on X (Twitter), described the JGB breakout as “the chart that should terrify every portfolio manager.

THE CHART THAT SHOULD TERRIFY EVERY PORTFOLIO MANAGER ON EARTH

Japan’s 10 Year Government Bond Yield just hit 1.84%.

The highest since April 2008.

Up 11.19% in a single session.

You need to understand what this means.

For three decades, Japan was the anchor. Zero rates.… https://t.co/1mpX0HuPdp

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) December 1, 2025

The strategist, who has reportedly witnessed infrastructural breakdowns, currency shocks, and state-level crises, cited:

• Inflation above 3%,
• Higher wage growth, and
• A Bank of Japan that is increasingly losing its ability to suppress yields.

These forces are pushing Japan into a structural shift away from the ultra-loose monetary regime that defined global markets for decades.

“When Japan raises rates, it sucks liquidity out of the global system. The “fuel” that powered the stock market rally is being drained. We can expect volatility in high-growth stocks as this “cheap money” era ends,” added another investor in a post.

The timing of the move is especially significant. The Federal Reserve has just ended its quantitative tightening program, the US faces record Treasury issuance, and interest payments on US debt have crossed the $1 trillion annual mark.

Meanwhile, China, historically one of the largest foreign buyers of US Treasuries, has slowed its accumulation. With Japan now under pressure to repatriate capital, two of America’s most important external funding sources are simultaneously stepping back.

“When the world’s creditor nations stop funding the world’s debtor nations at artificially suppressed rates, the entire post-2008 financial architecture must reprice. Every duration bet. Every leveraged position. Every assumption about perpetually falling rates. This is not a Japanese story. This is the global story. The 30-year bond bull market ended. Most just have not realized it yet,” Shanaka articulated.

Crypto, as one of the highest-beta corners of global markets, tends to react first when liquidity tightens. The scale of the liquidations suggests that leveraged traders were caught offside by the bond volatility, forcing rapid position unwinds across major assets.

Rather than a crypto-specific meltdown, the sell-off reflects a broad revaluation of duration, leverage, and risk as global bond markets reset.

Therefore, traders should probably watch Japan’s bond market as closely as they watch Bitcoin charts. If JGB yields continue to rise, it could tighten global liquidity through the end of the year.

The post Japan’s Bond Shock Slams Crypto: $640 Million Liquidated as 10-Year JGB Hits 17-Year High appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The first week of December 2025 features critical US economic events that will influence monetary policy expectations and Bitcoin’s direction, as traders prepare for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) actions.

Bitcoin investors face a pivotal week as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on December 1, coinciding with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT). With odds of a rate cut in December now at 86%, significant volatility is expected across risk assets.

Powell’s Speech and End of QT

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to address markets on Monday, December 1, at 8:00 pm ET. This date marks not just his highly anticipated speech but also the official end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program, an important policy shift announced by the FOMC in October.

“The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1,” read an excerpt in the Fed’s October 29 statement.

This decision reflects the presence of ample reserves in the banking system. Powell’s remarks come amid speculation about possible changes in Fed leadership, introducing another layer of market uncertainty.

🚨 BREAKING:

JEROME POWELL WILL GIVE A SPEECH ON DECEMBER 1ST AND QT ENDS THE SAME DAY.

RATE CUT ODDS FOR DECEMBER HAVE NOW SURGED TO 86%.

I WILL KEEP YOU UPDATED ON THE OUTCOME, NOTIS ON.

HUGE VOLATILITY AHEAD. pic.twitter.com/MV7UhJWUWi

— NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) November 30, 2025

Because Powell’s speech takes place just before the Fed’s blackout period ahead of the December policy meeting, it is likely to have outsized importance.

Any hints regarding future rates could trigger immediate market reactions. Ending quantitative tightening signals a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy, possibly increasing dollar liquidity.

Adding to the uncertainty, reports indicate President Trump has selected Powell’s replacement, though there is no official announcement yet.

This speculation may boost volatility, as markets weigh the prospect of a new chair who could push for faster rate cuts.

ADP Employment

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP), the largest payroll processor in the US, is set to release the ADP Employment Change report for November, which measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US, at 8:15 am ET on Wednesday. 

The prior November report showed just 42,000 jobs added, according to MarketWatch’s economic calendar. New data will provide key insights into the health of the labor market ahead of the official government jobs numbers.

A strong employment figure could reduce chances of a rate cut and put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. In contrast, weak job growth would reinforce the case for Federal Reserve easing, which typically benefits crypto markets.

The colloquial AI bubble is expected to play a role in the US jobs report this week, even as different industry experts express their sentiment.

For the record, U.S. stocks peaked in October 2007 and the economy entered recession in December 2007. As of now, the S&P 500 peaked in October.

ADP private payroll job creation year to date is at the same level it was at when the GFC recession started.

Is the AI super bubble… pic.twitter.com/yqI4WcjEz2

— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) November 30, 2025

Labor statistics are crucial for the Fed’s dual mandate and guide policy decisions.

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims arrive on Thursday, December 4, at 8:30 am ET. As a weekly measure of layoffs, this report provides a real-time view of labor market conditions. It determines the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS REPORT 📉

This week’s initial claims held steady near 220K, close to recent multi-year lows — signaling continued labor market resilience.

Key highlights:

🔴Initial claims remain far below recession-trigger levels, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative.… pic.twitter.com/ggNRWeDo4E

— Zeiierman Trading (@zeiierman) November 26, 2025

Rising claims may indicate economic weakness and support calls for easier monetary policy, while falling claims would suggest resilience and less urgency for rate cuts.

Historically, Bitcoin has been highly sensitive to employment releases since they shape Fed monetary outlooks and liquidity.

Traders often position ahead of these reports, generating increased volatility in both spot and derivatives markets.

PCE Inflation Data

Friday, December 5, brings the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index at 8:30 am ET, the Fed’s preferred inflation benchmark.

This report is pivotal, as it tracks progress toward the central bank’s 2% goal. It will be released alongside personal income and spending data, providing a comprehensive view of consumer health.

Investors will focus on both headline and core PCE numbers. A softer reading could confirm the disinflation trend, solidifying expectations for a December rate cut.

Data from the CME Fed Watch Tool shows that interest bettors wager an 87.6% chance of a rate cut in the December 10 meeting, against a 12.4% chance that policymakers will hold steady.

Conversely, persistent inflation would prompt caution from the Fed, possibly disappointing markets looking for aggressive easing.

Consumer sentiment is reported at 10:00 am ET, with the prior value at 51.0 on the economic calendar. This data gauges household views on the economy and spending. Weakening sentiment can signal slowing demand and further support the case for easier monetary policy, which often lifts Bitcoin.

These four key economic releases in a single week create a high-stakes environment for digital asset markets. Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets means macroeconomic news is likely to drive market direction more than crypto-specific events.

As the first week of December commences, the interplay between jobs data, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve’s stance will determine Bitcoin’s momentum and response to changing monetary policy signals.

The post 4 US Economic Events to Shake Bitcoin Sentiment in First Week of December 2025 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1, 2024, marks a pivotal shift for crypto markets.

Despite this milestone, experts note that visible impact could take time. Balance sheet expansion may be delayed until early 2026 due to treasury settlement lags, mirroring past cycles.

Historical Patterns Link Fed Policy to Altcoin Performance

The Fed’s monetary policy increasingly influences the crypto market. Historically, when the Fed was not engaged in QT, altcoins showed notable strength against Bitcoin, sparking multi-year rallies and altering market dynamics.

These shifts signal a clear relationship between liquidity policy and crypto performance. Analyst Matthew Hyland identifies historical trends where non-QT periods were followed by sustained altcoin rallies lasting between 29 and 42 months, highlighted by the OTHERS.D/BTC.D ratio.

Hyland’s research spotlights the periods 2014-2017 and 2019-2022. During these periods, the absence of QT allowed altcoins to sustain uptrends for 42 and 29 months, respectively.

“Altcoins historically outperform BTC when QT is not active. Alts have seen a 42-month & 29-month uptrend whilst QT was not active during 2014-2017 & 2019-2022. Based on the very strong correlation to the Fed’s balance sheet, it’s highly favorable Alts outperform BTC for many years going forward,” wrote Hyland.

The OTHERS.D/BTC.D ratio, which compares altcoin market dominance to Bitcoin, climbed as monetary conditions improved, encouraging greater risk appetite.

The Fed’s approach closely mirrors these shifts. From 2014 to 2017, a supportive stance led to strong altcoin growth. Likewise, after QT ended in August 2019, another altcoin rally unfolded and lasted through 2022. These cycles suggest Fed liquidity policy is a core influence on crypto risk assets.

$OTHERSBTC & $WALCL (Fed Balance Sheet)

The End of QT marked the bottom on $OTHERSBTC back in August 2019

This time, QT ends on December 1, 2025 👀

The $Alts Supercycle begins tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/IaoA2NoIrf

— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) November 30, 2025

Hyland emphasized that the current balance sheet, around $6.55 trillion and stabilizing post-QT, supports optimism for multi-year altcoin outperformance relative to Bitcoin.

Critical 0.25 Level May Signal Altcoin Season Launch

Technical analysis shows the ALT/BTC pair historically bottomed at 0.25 after QT ended. This threshold is seen as a key marker signaling the potential start of an altcoin rally and may again indicate the next phase of upward momentum.

The ALT/BTC ratio is now at 0.36, which is above this vital support level. If this measure approaches 0.25, it could signal the typical capitulation that precedes lasting altcoin strength.

The 0.25 line holds strong technical and psychological significance, often representing where altcoins regain upward momentum against Bitcoin.

Capital often rotates into alternative cryptocurrencies when Bitcoin dominance declines. According to August 2025 Coinbase research, Bitcoin’s dominance dropped from 65% in May to about 59% by August.

This trend points to early capital flows favoring altcoins, a hallmark of “altcoin season.”

Balance Sheet Expansion Delays Could Postpone Market Impact

While QT has officially ended, immediate effects are unlikely. The experience from 2019 shows that settlement lags can postpone observable balance sheet expansion and, by extension, crypto market reactions.

Benjamin Cowen highlighted operational factors. In 2019, although QT ended in August, balance sheet growth lagged as treasury maturities settled later that month. Policy changes can thus take time to reach financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

“Just because QT ends December 1 does not mean the balance sheet immediately starts going up. It might take until early 2026 to notice that,” wrote Cowen.

These operational realities matter for market timing. Mechanisms such as treasury settlements and reserve management can delay balance sheet expansion by months, causing uncertain conditions for traders awaiting clear policy impact. Volatility may persist during this window.

Fed research underlines these complexities. Shifts in the Treasury General Account and settlement schedules may skew short-term balance sheet readings.

The experience of August 2019 shows that patience is needed before definitive market patterns emerge, likely in 2025 or 2026.

Despite near-term uncertainties, the outlook for altcoin markets remains constructive. Once Fed-driven liquidity expansion becomes evident, historical trends indicate altcoins often benefit.

The post Fed to End QT: Could this Trigger Multi-Year Altcoin Rally Akin to 2019-2022? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

A powerful and unusual wave of global capital is rushing into US markets. Foreign investors are buying American equities at a record pace, Treasury demand is reshuffling at a structural level, and domestic inflows are accelerating into year-end.

At the same time, US consumer debt has hit its highest level in history. For crypto and equity investors, the scale and direction of these flows signal a major shift in risk appetite and global macro positioning.

Foreign Investors Drive Record Equity Buying Amid Historic Realignment in Treasury Ownership

Private investors outside the US purchased $646.8 billion in US equities in the 12 months ending September 2025, according to data cited by Yardeni Research.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Private investors outside U.S. purchased record $646.8 billion of U.S. equities in the 12 months ending in September 2025 – Yardeni Research. pic.twitter.com/9dPxGJoS3g

— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) November 30, 2025

This marks the highest level on record, surpassing the 2021 peak by 66%, with flows doubling since January.

The buying is not limited to US equities. Foreign private-investor purchases of US Treasuries totalled $492.7 billion in the same period. Rolling 12-month non-US buying of Treasuries has remained above $400 billion for four consecutive years, reflecting persistent global demand for dollar-denominated safety.

“Everyone wants US assets,” analysts at the Kobeissi Letter remarked.

The composition of foreign Treasury holders is shifting in ways not seen in decades:

• China’s share of foreign Treasury holdings has fallen to 7.6%, the lowest in 23 years, and down 20% over 14 years.
• The UK’s share has quadrupled to 9.4%, near its highest level on record.
• Japan, still the largest foreign holder, now accounts for 12.9%, down 26 points over the last 21 years.

These shifts suggest a long-term repositioning of sovereign and private capital, a trend with direct implications for interest rates, liquidity, and market volatility.

Something unusual is happening in the US Treasury market:

China’s Treasury holdings as a % of all foreign holdings is down to 7.6%, the lowest in 23 years.

This percentage has declined -20 points over the last 14 years.

As a result, China now ranks as the world’s 3rd-largest… pic.twitter.com/JWJ4bbhbsy

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 29, 2025

Domestic Investors Also Going Risk-On, But Record Consumer Debt Adds Complexity

US investors have poured an extraordinary $900 billion into equity funds since November 2024, according to JPMorgan data, with half of that total, $450 billion, arriving in just the last five months.

Fixed-income funds added another $400 billion, while all other asset classes combined attracted only $100 billion.

Inflows into US equities have exceeded those into all other asset classes combined, reinforcing the strength of the bid for US risk assets.

While institutional and foreign investors are ramping up their exposure, US households are under growing financial pressure. Total US credit-card debt climbed to $1.233 trillion in Q3 2025, the highest level ever recorded.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Total U.S. credit-card debt reaches $1.233 trillion in third quarter of 2025, highest amount since tracking began. pic.twitter.com/sFi2cMhZTg

— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) November 30, 2025

This divergence between market optimism and consumer strain raises questions about sustainability, earnings resilience, and the timing of potential policy shifts.

Seasonality and Bullish Projections Lift Sentiment

JP Morgan expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 next year, a view reinforced by powerful seasonal tailwinds. This projection comes as markets anticipate the bank’s “everything rally” forecast shared just over a week ago.

S&P 500 could hit 8,000 next year says JP Morgan 🥳📈🤑🫂 pic.twitter.com/l8zYgPAtWS

— Barchart (@Barchart) November 29, 2025

December has historically been the strongest month for US stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 73% of the time since 1928 and delivering an average return of +1.28%.

For both crypto and equity markets, the surge in capital flows toward the US signals rising confidence in American assets, or a lack of attractive alternatives abroad.

Investors will watch to see whether these inflows accelerate in 2026, how Treasury demand shifts as global holdings rebalance, and whether record consumer debt becomes a drag on macroeconomic momentum.

With liquidity building and seasonality strengthening, both traditional markets and digital assets are entering a potentially decisive phase.

The post Foreign Investors Set Record With $646.8 Billion in US Stock Purchases Amid Shifting Global Capital Flows appeared first on BeInCrypto.

On December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will officially end Quantitative Tightening (QT), freezing its balance sheet at $6.57 trillion after draining $2.39 trillion from the system.

Analysts point to parallels with 2019, when the last QT pause coincided with a major bottom in altcoins and a surge in Bitcoin. With liquidity returning and interest rates already cut to 3.75–4.00%, crypto markets are bracing for a potentially bullish shift.

Fed Ends QT Tomorrow — Crypto Eyes 2019-Style Liquidity Boost

The Fed’s halt of its balance sheet runoff comes amid strained bank reserves, now roughly $3 trillion, or about 10% of US GDP. The Overnight Reverse Repo facility, which previously absorbed $2.5 trillion in excess cash, has dropped to near zero, removing a key liquidity buffer.

October 2025 saw the Secured Overnight Financing Rate spike to 4.25%, exceeding the Fed’s target range. The Standing Repo Facility recorded a single-day activation of $18.5 billion, reflecting persistent demand for liquidity.

FOMC minutes from October 29 detail operational adjustments designed to improve policy transmission.

“The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1,” read an excerpt in the Fed’s October 29 statement.

This means that QT officially ends on December 1, and the Fed will stop letting its securities mature without reinvestment. From that day forward, the balance sheet will no longer shrink.

The Committee noted that downside risks to employment have risen, even though unemployment remains low, and inflation is “somewhat elevated.”

Analysts note that this marks a long-term shift: the Standing Repo Facility, initially an emergency tool, now functions as a permanent daily liquidity provider, effectively embedding the Fed in Treasury market operations.

Researcher Shanaka Anslem describes this as the “Standing Repo Era,” a structural transformation with lasting implications for global finance.

THE FED JUST CROSSED A THRESHOLD NO ONE IS DISCUSSING

December 1, 2025. The Federal Reserve terminates Quantitative Tightening. Balance sheet frozen at $6.57 trillion. The largest liquidity withdrawal in central banking history ends after draining $2.39 trillion from the… pic.twitter.com/W0QjrXC3JB

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) November 30, 2025

Historical Parallels and Crypto Market Implications

Crypto analysts are drawing direct comparisons to August 2019, when the Fed ended QT, and altcoins bottomed.

$OTHERSBTC & $WALCL (Fed Balance Sheet)

The End of QT marked the bottom on $OTHERSBTC back in August 2019

This time, QT ends on December 1, 2025 👀

The $Alts Supercycle begins tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/IaoA2NoIrf

— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) November 30, 2025

While past performance is not a guarantee, key indicators support cautious optimism:

• Bitcoin dominance is below 60%,
• The global M2 money supply is rising, and historically leads BTC by 10–12 weeks.

The end of QT could inject up to $95 billion per month in liquidity, supporting large-cap cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB.

Gold’s recent all-time highs provide additional correlation, as BTC often lags gold price moves by roughly 12 weeks.

Meanwhile,the Fed’s December 10 FOMC meeting occurs amid unusual conditions:

• A 43-day government shutdown erased two months of CPI data, leaving policymakers without fresh inflation figures.
• CPI currently sits at 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the Fed is considering additional rate cuts after October’s 25-bps reduction.

The US federal debt exceeds $36 trillion, with annual interest costs above $1 trillion. The Standing Repo Facility now enables rapid monetization of Treasury collateral, representing a structural shift with long-term market implications.

Some crypto analysts anticipate an immediate rally following QT’s end, while others see a smaller altseason within 2–3 months and a larger market cycle in 2027–2028.

🚨 Fed Liquidity is Here: The Crypto Melt-Up Starts Now 🚨

The Fed is on the verge of ending QT, just like 2019 and that means one thing: Liquidity is coming back.

If you know what this means for #Bitcoin and altcoins, you should be excited.

Here’s why I think this is the…

— VirtualBacon (@virtualbacon) October 28, 2025

Consensus holds that liquidity, rather than hype or Bitcoin halvings, has historically driven crypto cycles.

December 1 marks a critical turning point as the Fed’s liquidity pivot could remove one major obstacle for risk assets. The move could set the stage for crypto markets to respond, whether through a mini rally or the early stages of a broader Supercycle.

While QT ends on December 1, the Fed emphasized that future adjustments to the federal funds rate will depend on incoming data and changing economic risks.

This signals that the Fed is keeping monetary policy flexible, prepared to adjust rates or other measures if necessary.

Investors should watch interest rate guidance, Treasury liquidity operations, and M2 money supply trends in the coming weeks.

The post Tomorrow the Fed Ends QT — Crypto Thinks the Melt-Up Starts Now appeared first on BeInCrypto.

MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le has, for the first time, acknowledged that the company could sell its 649,870 BTC holdings under specific crisis conditions.

This marks a significant shift from Chairman Michael Saylor’s long-standing “never sell” philosophy and signals a new chapter for the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

CEO Phong Le Reveals Hidden Kill-Switch in MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy

MicroStrategy has confirmed a scenario almost no one thought possible: the potential to sell Bitcoin, its core treasury asset. Speaking on What Bitcoin Did, CEO Phong Le outlined the precise trigger that would force a Bitcoin sale:

• First, the company’s stock must trade below 1x mNAV, meaning the market capitalization falls below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
• Second, MicroStrategy must be unable to raise new capital through equity or debt issuance. This would mean capital markets are closed or too expensive to access.

JUST IN: Strategy CEO Phong Le says $BTC would only be sold if the company’s stock falls below net asset value and funding options disappear, calling it a financial decision. pic.twitter.com/YpgEIeF3qe

— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) November 30, 2025

Le clarified that the board has not planned near-term sales, but confirmed that this option “is in the toolkit” if financial conditions deteriorate.

This is the first explicit acknowledgement, after years of Michael Saylor’s absolutist claim that “we will never sell Bitcoin.” It shows that MicroStrategy does, in fact, have a kill-switch tied directly to liquidity pressure.

Why the 1x mNAV Threshold Matters

mNAV compares MicroStrategy’s market value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. When mNAV drops below 1, the company becomes worth less than the Bitcoin it owns.

Several analysts, including AB Kuai Dong and Larry Lanzilli, note that the company is now facing a new constraint. The mNAV premium that powered its Bitcoin-accumulation flywheel has nearly vanished for the first time since early 2024.

As of November 30, mNAV hovers near 0.95x, edging uncomfortably close to the 0.9x “danger zone.”

If mNAV falls below 0.9x, MicroStrategy could be pushed toward BTC-funded dividend obligations. Under extreme conditions the firm would be compelled to sell portions of its treasury to maintain shareholder value.

🧵 MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le just confirmed on What Bitcoin Did (Nov 29, 2025):

😯 “If MSTR stock trades <1x mNAV AND we can’t raise fresh capital → we would sell portions of our #Bitcoin as a last-resort move.”

🤔 He called it “mathematically justified” to protect Bitcoin…

— Larry Lanzilli (@lanzilli) November 30, 2025

The pressure stems from $750–$800 million in annual preferred share dividend payments, issued during MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin expansion.

Previously, the company used new equity issuances to cover these costs. With the stock down more than 60% from its highs and market skepticism rising, that avenue is narrowing.

Analysts Warn of a Structural Shift

According to Astryx Research, MicroStrategy has effectively transformed into a “leveraged Bitcoin ETF with a software company attached.” That structure works when BTC rises, but amplifies stress when liquidity tightens or volatility spikes.

Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy: Genius or Hidden Risk?@saylor and MicroStrategy have done something no public company in history has ever done:

They turned their balance sheet into a leveraged Bitcoin ETF with a software company attached — and it has paid off massively.… pic.twitter.com/KfAMJYWB7y

— Astryx Research (@AstryxHQ) November 30, 2025

SEC filings have long warned about liquidity risk during a deep Bitcoin drawdown. While the firm maintains that it faces no forced liquidation risk due to its convertible debt structure, the CEO’s latest comments confirm a mathematically defined trigger for voluntary sales.

If $BTC drops to our $74K average cost basis, we still have 5.9x assets to convertible debt, which we refer to as the BTC Rating of our debt. At $25K BTC, it would be 2.0x.

— Strategy (@Strategy) November 25, 2025

Why This Matters for Bitcoin Investors

MicroStrategy is the largest corporate BTC holder in the world. Its “HODL forever” stance has been a symbolic pillar of the institutional Bitcoin thesis. Acknowledging a sell condition, even if distant, shifts that narrative toward realism:

• Liquidity can override ideology.
• Market structure matters as much as conviction.
• The Bitcoin cycle now has a new, and measurable, risk threshold: the 0.9x mNAV line.

Investors will watch Monday’s updates closely as analysts track whether mNAV stabilizes or continues slipping toward 0.9x.

Any further weakness in BTC or MSTR stock could intensify scrutiny of MicroStrategy’s balance sheet strategy heading into 2026.

The post MicroStrategy Admits a Bitcoin Sale Is Possible—Here’s When appeared first on BeInCrypto.

A congressional report alleges that the Trump administration generated over $800 million from cryptocurrency ventures in early 2025.

The report claims total Trump family crypto holdings climbed to $11.6 billion, alleging that foreign actors and state-linked entities invested in family projects in exchange for policy favors.

Crypto Ventures and Foreign Investment

On November 25, 2025, House Judiciary Committee Democrats released these findings. They allege that President Trump used his position to increase his family’s crypto interests while reducing enforcement and halting federal investigations into the industry.

The report from Rep. Jamie Raskin describes the Trump family’s accumulation of billions through crypto schemes driven by foreign investments and regulatory changes.

Trump family projects included World Liberty Financial (WLF), the WLFI governance token, the USD1 stablecoin, and the TRUMP meme coin. These ventures attracted substantial investments from foreign nationals and entities linked to foreign governments.

Allegedly:

• The WLFI token sale raised $550 million in March 2025,
• The USD1 stablecoin reached a $2.7 billion market cap.
• TRUMP meme coin brought in $350 million in trading fees and reached a peak price of $75 before a sharp decline.

World Liberty Financial was co-founded by Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Barron Trump, along with business partners Zach and Andrew Witkoff, according to documents from the House Financial Services Committee.

Foreign investors included Justin Sun, founder of Tron, who invested $30 million in late 2024 and later expanded his stake to $75 million, becoming the largest shareholder.

We are thrilled to invest $30 million in World Liberty Financial @worldlibertyfi as its largest investor. The U.S. is becoming the blockchain hub, and Bitcoin owes it to @realDonaldTrump! TRON is committed to making America great again and leading innovation. Let's go! pic.twitter.com/cISTsVYP1f

— H.E. Justin Sun 👨‍🚀 🌞 (@justinsuntron) November 25, 2024

Other major investors, allegedly connected to Chinese state-backed entities and the UAE royal family, were Guren Bobby Zhou, Aqua 1, MGX, and DWF Labs.

The investigation identified Chinese state-owned CNPC and UAE entities, including those linked to Sheikh Tahnoon, as key contributors to Trump’s ventures.

The report outlines a pay-for-access scheme involving the TRUMP meme coin dinner contest, which raised $148 million.

Top buyers were given access to White House meetings and golf courses, with several winners being foreign nationals. In addition, Trump Media & Technology Group revealed a $2.5 billion bitcoin treasury, deepening the family’s ties to cryptocurrency holdings.

Regulatory Rollbacks and Enforcement Actions

The Trump administration enacted major regulatory shifts on digital assets. In January 2025, President Trump repealed Executive Order 14178, a major Biden-era policy.

By March, a Strategic Crypto Reserve was created, marking a significant change in how the federal government approached cryptocurrency.

In April 2025, the Department of Justice disbanded the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET). Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche issued an official memorandum ordering the immediate dissolution of this specialized unit.

This act ended “regulation by prosecution” in crypto enforcement. The Computer Crime and Intellectual Property Section remained in operation, but the dedicated enforcement team was eliminated.

Lawsuits and enforcement actions by the SEC and DOJ targeting major crypto firms with political connections were halted. Benefiting companies included Coinbase, Gemini, Robinhood, Ripple, Crypto.com, Uniswap, Yuga Labs, and Kraken.

In February 2025, the SEC ruled that meme coins are not securities, ending oversight for these digital assets.

The administration also pardoned individuals with ties to Trump crypto projects. Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the founder of Binance, received a presidential pardon after starting business relationships with the Trump family companies.

According to the report, these pardons and sanctions rollbacks directly benefited supporters of Trump ventures.

Constitutional and Legal Concerns

Congressional investigators warn that the situation exposes deep flaws in US anti-corruption, campaign finance, and conflict-of-interest laws.

The report questions whether the Foreign Emoluments Clause, which bars federal officials from taking gifts or payments from foreign governments without congressional approval, was violated.

Lawmakers argue that existing laws cannot adequately prevent conflicts of interest and foreign influence in the crypto sector.

The sequence of policy changes and business initiatives raised alarm among investigators. World Liberty Financial announced the USD1 stablecoin just after Trump endorsed the GENIUS Act, a major piece of stablecoin legislation expedited through Congress in 2025.

The full staff report includes a timeline showing policy rollbacks, access, and investment events.

The investigation relied on reporting from TradFi and crypto outlets to verify reported numbers and policy actions.

It documents how prior opposition to crypto shifted to active industry support as money entered campaign and family business channels during and after the 2024 campaign.

Possible second order effects from Trump's win:

• BTC becomes a US strategic reserve asset
• New regulatory regime will make it much easier for tokens to capture value from their protocols
• Token classification framework could shift from "most tokens are securities" to… pic.twitter.com/Yar5Lk1yuG

— Aylo (@alpha_pls) November 6, 2024

House Judiciary Committee Democrats called for urgent congressional reforms, citing an unprecedented scale of self-enrichment and foreign influence through cryptocurrency.

The report stresses national security, legal, and ethical risks caused by foreign and corporate money bypassing anti-corruption protections.

It remains unclear if these allegations will result in new laws or further investigations as political debates continue.

The post House Report Alleges Trump Administration Tied US Policy to $11.6 Billion Crypto Empire appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Arthur Hayes has turned Monad (MON) into the week’s most chaotic battleground. Just 48 hours after hyping the token with a brazen “MON to $10,” the BitMEX co-founder reversed course entirely.

Meanwhile, other whales continue to accumulate the token, which hit the mainnet only recently but continues to ride a wave of spoofed token transfers.

Arthur Hayes Nukes MON Publicly, But Whales Are Secretly Accumulating

The former BitMEX CEO slammed the token, urging traders to send it to zero, just two days after the MON price recorded a sharp post-launch rally.

I'm out. Send this dogshit to ZERO!$MON 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/qUYgmhvPsT

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 27, 2025

Hayes’ reversal began on November 25, when he joked that the bull market needed “another low float, high FDV useless Layer-1 (L1) token,” before admitting he aped in anyway.

Just what this bull market needs another low float , high FDV useless L1. But obvi I aped. It’s a bull market bitches!$MON to $10 pic.twitter.com/UMSDWWmp5a

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 25, 2025

However, by November 27, he declared himself “out,” dismissing MON altogether and telling the market to disregard it.

Yet blockchain data suggests MON’s largest players didn’t share his bearishness.

On-chain tracking by Lookonchain shows that whale address 0x9294 withdrew 73.36 million MON (around $3 million) from Gate.io within 24 hours, marking one of the largest single-address accumulations recorded this week.

Whale 0x9294 has withdrawn 73.36M $MON($3M) from #Gateio in the past 24 hours.

Address:
0x9294906c89f5330106be3141d8c58e5731dd168c pic.twitter.com/lsQEUS15Rx

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) November 27, 2025

BeInCrypto also reported that mega whales (holding the highest-tier addresses) boosted their MON holdings by 10.67%, bringing their stash to 176.44 million MON after adding 17.08 million tokens worth roughly $717,000.

Meanwhile, normal whales added 4.80 million MON over the same period, expanding their holdings by 9.51% to reach 55.42 million MON.

In total, whales now control over 300 million MON, a sharp contrast to Hayes’ public dismissal of the project.

Hayes Rotates Into ENA, PENDLE, and ETHFI

While Hayes publicly torched MON, he quietly shifted capital into other tokens. Lookonchain reports that across the past two days, Hayes accumulated:

• 4.89 million ENA (Ethena), valued at $1.37 million,
• 436,000 PENDLE worth $1.13 million, and
• 696,000 ETHFI ($543K).

On November 26 alone, he spent another $536,000 on 218,000 PENDLE. The ENA trades are even more telling. Just nine hours before Lookonchain’s latest report, Hayes bought back 873,671 ENA for $245,000, even though he sold 5.02 million ENA two weeks earlier at a lower price.

“[Hayes is once again] selling low, buying high,” Lookonchain remarked, signaling either emotional trading or a deliberate strategy to scale into positions he values more than his initial entry.

Together, the moves point toward a broader rotation strategy. Hayes appears to be exiting high-FDV, meme-driven L1 narratives like MON while doubling down on “real yield” and liquid staking plays represented by PENDLE, ENA, and ETHFI.

This would align with broader market behavior, where stabilized prices mean spot flows, especially from whales, now matter more than short-term hype cycles.

Still, the contradiction between Hayes’ aggressive public FUD on MON and simultaneous heavy whale accumulation raises uncomfortable questions for the market.

Is his commentary simply emotional whiplash, or is he intentionally playing into volatility that benefits professional traders? The dynamic revives debates about whether influential voices in crypto can distort sentiment while others accumulate in the shadows.

Nevertheless, investors must conduct their own research, as Hayes’ dramatic exit from MON has not deterred the deep pockets. If anything, whales appear more interested than ever, quietly absorbing supply as retail traders digest the noise.

As of this writing, the MON price is down by over 13%, currently trading at $0.0412. This dump likely stems from concerns after fake token transfer attacks, where bad actors exploited the ERC-20 standard to mislead users with fake wallet activity.

warning – there are fake ERC-20 transfers pretending to be from my wallethttps://t.co/TCZTfDfoTQ

example:https://t.co/wA1I8RFTdQ

you can see the txs are not sent by me

ERC-20 is just a token interface standard, it's easy to write a smart contract that meets that standard…

— James (mainnet arc) (@_jhunsaker) November 25, 2025

In one instance, a fraudulent contract generated fake swap calls and simulated trading patterns around the MON ecosystem. The transfers aimed to exploit the early hours frenzy after Monad’s mainnet, when users were opening wallets, claiming tokens, and monitoring liquidity.

The post Arthur Hayes Turns on Monad (MON) as Whales Sweep Up 300 Million Tokens appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee because the next few weeks may mark a quiet turning point hiding in plain sight. While most are focused on headlines about bubbles and fears of a slowdown, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood reveals a deeper shift in liquidity, policy, and AI adoption that is capable of reshaping the outlook for tech and crypto.

Crypto News of the Day: Cathie Wood Talks About AI’s “Productivity Drought”

US liquidity is snapping back faster than most macro watchers expected, and Cathie Wood believes that timing could collide with one of the most misunderstood trends in tech and crypto: the widening gap between consumer AI adoption and enterprise productivity.

While headlines continue to warn of an AI bubble, ARK Invest argues that markets are entering the first inning of a rebound fueled by:

• Liquidity,
• Policy easing, and
• Accelerating commercial AI demand.

According to ARK Invest, the US market liquidity has already begun a decisive reversal. In a detailed update, the firm noted that liquidity “is finally turning upward” after hitting a multi-year low in late October.

ARK stated that the six-week government shutdown resulted in a $621 billion drain from the system. Still, the reopening “released $70 billion back into markets,” with an estimated $300 billion likely to return over the next several weeks as the Treasury General Account normalizes.

The firm added that the backdrop aligns with a dovish shift at the Federal Reserve, pushing market-implied odds of a near-term rate cut to roughly 90%.

This liquidity push comes just as quantitative tightening is scheduled to end on December 1, an inflection point ARK believes markets have not fully priced in.

“With liquidity returning, quantitative tightening ending December 1, and monetary policy turning supportive, we believe conditions are building for markets to reverse recent drawdowns potentially,” the firm said.

Cathie Wood Says AI’s Productivity Drought Is the Next Bull Catalyst

Cathie Woo, the firm’s founder, CEO, and CIO, is taking the argument further. In a recent webinar, she stated that the liquidity squeeze affecting AI and crypto “will reverse in the next few weeks.”

The AI story has just begun. Enterprises may be slow to show productivity gains, but @CathieDWood highlights that AI is flourishing on the consumer side and US commercial business was up 123% last quarter.

Fund webinar: https://t.co/oYbqsY4pMF pic.twitter.com/9ual0iKfnI

— ARK Funds (@ARK_Funds) November 24, 2025

The fund manager added that markets “seemed to buy” the thesis, given ARK holdings rallied 8% after the session.

She also pushed back against the prevailing narrative that AI is in bubble territory, pointing directly to commercial traction.

That surge is supported by Palantir’s latest earnings, which showed a triple-digit jump in US commercial revenue. According to Cathie Wood, this is evidence that enterprises are committing capital before productivity shows up.

$PLTR Palantir Q3 FY25:

• Net dollar retention 134% (+16pp Y/Y).
• Revenue +63% Y/Y to $1.18B ($90M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.21 ($0.04 beat).

FY25 guidance:
• Revenue +53% Y/Y to $4.4B ($252M raise).
• Adjusted margin 49% (3pp raise). pic.twitter.com/7g0Q3rFHZi

— App Economy Insights (@EconomyApp) November 3, 2025

This trend forms the core of ARK’s thesis, that consumer AI is exploding while enterprises appear stalled, but the lag is structural, not cyclical.

“We think this AI story has just begun. We are in the first inning,” Cathie Wood explained, adding that enterprises require time “to restructure and transform completely” before productivity becomes measurable.

She points to recent MIT research showing that most corporations are not yet seeing productivity gains from AI because their internal systems, workflows, and org structures are still built for pre-AI operations.

However, the firm argues that this “productivity drought” is exactly what forces CEOs into rapid investment cycles.

“…[decision-makers are already saying] we’ve got to do this or we’re going to lose our competitive edge out there,” Cathie Wood shared.

Still, ARK highlights one major risk: the energy bottleneck. AI-compute demand is exploding so fast that up to 20% of data-center projects are facing delays.

The coming liquidity wave may supercharge AI and crypto, if energy infrastructure scales quickly enough to support it. ARK Invests believes the pieces are aligning, citing:

• Liquidity is rising,
• QT is ending,
• The Fed is turning dovish, and
• Commercial AI spending is accelerating.

 If Wood is right, markets may not be facing an AI bubble, but are on the verge of the cycle’s real beginning.

Chart of the Day

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

• The Zcash ETF nobody asked for: Why critics fear a Wall Street takeover.
• XRP balance on Binance hits one-year low: What are the causes and impacts?
• Coinbase Premium shows first signs of recovery as US selling pressure finally eases.
• BitMine (BMNR) price’s 17% rise this week could end a 7-week-long depression.
• GameFi push ignites Pi Network hype, so what’s behind the rising sell wall?
• Bitcoin price climbs over $90,000 after 7 days, but liquidity concerns linger.
• Ripple’s RLUSD hits record high as UAE opens the door to institutional use.
• Grayscale files for spot Zcash ETF, ZEC price could cross $600.

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Company	At the Close of November 26	Pre-Market Overview
Strategy (MSTR)	$175.64	$176.96 (+0.75%)
Coinbase (COIN)	$264.97	$268.68 (+1.40%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)	$26.24	$26.71 (+1.79%)
MARA Holdings (MARA)	$11.11	$11.29 (+1.62%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT)	$14.96	$15.19 (+1.54%)
Core Scientific (CORZ)	$16.18	$16.25 (+0.42%)

The post AI’s Productivity Drought May Be the Bullish Catalyst Wall Street Missed | US Crypto News appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Hedge funds are piling into one of their biggest anti-dollar bets in years, just as macro signals hint the USD may be nearing a rebound.

If the crowded trade snaps, the ripple effects could hit crypto markets faster than investors expect.

Hedge Funds Build Extreme USD Shorts—A Repeatable Pattern?

Hedge funds are aggressively shorting the US dollar, reaching one of the most lopsided positioning levels in two decades.

The Positioning Index indicates that funds are deeply entrenched in “extreme short” territory, a zone that has historically preceded a USD recovery rather than a prolonged decline.

Analyst Guilherme Tavares highlighted this setup, noting that the trade has become dangerously crowded.

“Hedge funds are holding significant short positions in the DXY, and historically, similar levels have often preceded solid buying opportunities—at least for a short-term rebound. When a trade becomes too crowded, it’s usually worth considering the opposite side,” he wrote.

Across the past 20 years, every major episode of heavy USD shorting has ended the same way: a dollar bounce that forces fast-money traders to unwind positions.

Macro Tone Doesn’t Support the Anti-Dollar Hype

A similar warning came from EndGame Macro, who pointed out that extreme short positioning rarely appears in calm markets.

They explained that hedge funds are “shorting a weak dollar,” which historically makes the market more vulnerable to even a small shift in sentiment or liquidity.

According to analysts, the broader environment is not as supportive of ongoing USD weakness as traders assume. Treasury markets are pricing future Fed cuts, growth is slowing, and dollar funding markets are tightening, all conditions that make sudden reversals more likely.

“This setup doesn’t guarantee a major dollar bull run, but it does tell you that the downside is probably limited,” said analyst EndGame Macro.

Why Crypto Should Care: A Rising Dollar Is a Threat

Crypto market analysts continue stressing the direct inverse relationship between the DXY and digital assets.

“Dollar up = bad for crypto. Dollar down = good for crypto. If the dollar keeps grinding higher into 2026… you may have to kiss that beloved bull market goodbye,” analyst As Milk Road warned.

The risk is that if the USD rebounds strongly from these crowded shorts, as history suggests, crypto could face sustained pressure during a period when investors were expecting a multi-year bull cycle.

Technical Signals Now Support a USD Reversal

Market technicians are tracking fresh breakout signals on the US Dollar Index. According to Daan Crypto, the DXY has closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time in nearly nine months, positioning the index to break a 7–8 month downtrend.

“This isn’t ideal for risk assets and has been putting pressure on as well… Good to keep an eye on,” he said.

Combined with the yen’s weakness and general derisking behavior after recent market volatility, technical momentum may now be aligning with positioning data to fuel a potential USD resurgence.

If hedge funds are forced to unwind their extreme short positions, the USD could stage a sharp rebound. This could pressure Bitcoin, Ethereum, and risk assets broadly.

The next few weeks of DXY price action, funding conditions, and Fed communication will determine whether crypto’s bullish narrative survives or enters a more defensive phase.

The post Hedge Funds Are Heavily Shorting the USD – What Does It Mean for Crypto? appeared first on BeInCrypto.