Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts, warning that a key pillar of recent demand, corporate Bitcoin buying, is likely over.

The bank now believes future gains in Bitcoin will be driven by a single source: exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, a shift that could slow the pace of upside in the years ahead.

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Bitcoin’s Pullback ‘Painful but Normal’

In a new note, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, said the bank is pushing back its timeline for Bitcoin reaching $500,000 and lowering its year-end price targets for 2026 through 2029.

“While the recent Bitcoin price decline has been rapid, we think it is within expected bounds. However, further corporate buying of Bitcoin is unlikely, as valuations no longer support it. This leaves ETF buying, which may be slower than earlier expected, to drive price gains from here. We lower our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and push out our $500,000 forecast to 2030. Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze,” Kendrick said.

Bitcoin’s recent price action has unsettled investors, but Standard Chartered argues the sell-off fits historical patterns rather than signalling a structural downturn.

Kendrick noted that Bitcoin has fallen around 36% from its all-time high on October 6, a decline comparable to other drawdowns seen since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“The recent price action in Bitcoin (BTC) has been challenging, but the decline, while rapid, falls within ‘normal’ expectations,” Kendrick stated, adding that similar pullbacks have occurred over the past two years.

The timing of the peak has fuelled renewed fears of a crypto winter, with Bitcoin topping roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, a pattern seen in past cycles.

“The timing of the recent losses, the 6 October high was reached 18 months after the April 2024 ‘halving’ of Bitcoin supply, has fed the narrative of a ‘crypto winter’,” Kendrick added.

However, Standard Chartered rejects the idea that the traditional halving-driven cycle still dominates Bitcoin’s price behaviour.

“We do not share the view that the halving cycle is still valid. Rather, we think longer-term ETF buyers are a much more important price driver,” he noted.

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Corporate Bitcoin Buying Losing Steam

The more concerning signal, according to Standard Chartered, is the apparent end of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by listed digital asset treasury companies (DATs).

Kendrick said valuations no longer justify further expansion by these firms, which have played an increasingly visible role in driving demand over the past year.

“That said, price action has forced us to recalibrate our Bitcoin price forecasts. Specifically, we think buying by Bitcoin digital asset treasury companies (DATs) is likely over, as valuations, as measured by mNAVs, the commonly used valuation metric for these companies, no longer support further Bitcoin DAT expansion,” he mentioned

While the bank does not expect widespread selling from these companies, it also does not expect them to underpin prices going forward.

“We expect a consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support,” Kendrick said.

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ETF Inflows Will Be A Key Support

With corporate Bitcoin buying fading, Kendrick believes the next phase of Bitcoin’s price trajectory depends almost entirely on ETFs.

“As a result, we think that future Bitcoin price increases will effectively be driven by one leg only, ETF buying,” he remarked.

That shift has prompted Standard Chartered to delay its most bullish projections.

“We therefore lower our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and expect Bitcoin to reach our long-term price forecast of $500,000 only in 2030 (versus 2028 previously),” Kendrick highlighted.

Still, the bank maintains its long-term optimism, just on a longer timeline.

“We still think this target is attainable, as portfolio optimisation between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that global portfolios are underweight Bitcoin. Investment access and decision-making by investment committees take time, but we expect them to drive large Bitcoin gains eventually,” he added.

The post Standard Chartered Sounds Alarm: A Major Bitcoin Buyer Has Disappeared appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been one of the biggest storylines since their launch last year. With Bitcoin hitting new highs in 2025 and ETF assets surging, many assume big Wall Street players are finally “long Bitcoin.”

But not so fast, says Arthur Hayes.

In an email sent Monday, the BitMEX co-founder argues that much of the institutional activity inside BlackRock’s IBIT, still the largest Bitcoin ETF by assets, has nothing to do with long-term conviction. Instead, he says, the biggest players are running a straightforward arbitrage trade.

“They Are Not Long Bitcoin”

Hayes points to the ETF’s largest holders, hedge funds and bank trading desks, including firms like Goldman Sachs, and argues they are primarily engaged in what’s known as a basis trade.

Here’s how it works:

• Funds buy IBIT ETF shares
• Simultaneously short CME Bitcoin futures
• Capture the yield difference between the ETF and futures (the basis)
• Use the ETF shares as collateral for the futures short

According to Hayes:

“They are not long Bitcoin. They only play in our sandbox for a few extra points over Fed Funds.”

This has become even more common in 2025 as US rates have fallen, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times this year, reducing yields across traditional markets and making arbitrage opportunities more attractive.

Why ETF Inflows Can Be Misleading

When the basis is high enough, hedge funds rush into the trade, creating the appearance of large institutional inflows.
When the basis compresses, as it has several times throughout 2025, those same institutions unwind the trade, causing sharp ETF outflows.

Hayes says this dynamic creates a dangerous illusion, and it plays out like this:

When the basis spikes → ETF inflows surge → “Institutions are buying Bitcoin!”

When the basis collapses → ETF outflows spike → “Institutions are dumping Bitcoin!”

Retail investors often misinterpret these flows, which can amplify market volatility.

What Changed in 2025

Earlier this year, Bitcoin rose steadily even as dollar liquidity tightened under the incoming Trump administration and US Treasury issuance surged. ETF inflows and buying from digital asset trusts helped offset the liquidity drag.

But Hayes argues that that phase may be over.

• Several digital asset trusts (DATs) have traded below NAV this autumn.
• The ETF basis trade has become less attractive as futures spreads narrowed.
• Hedge funds have reduced their positions, triggering noticeable outflows across the ETF complex for weeks at a time.

With those artificial demand drivers fading, Hayes says Bitcoin finally has to respond to the underlying macro environment again.

“Bitcoin Must Fall” — Hayes on Short-Term Pressure

According to Hayes:

“Bitcoin must fall to reflect the current short-term worry that dollar liquidity will contract or not grow as fast as the politicians promised.”

In other words:
ETF flows pushed Bitcoin up when liquidity didn’t justify it.
Now those flows are gone, and liquidity still matters. His message for late 2025 is blunt:

• Most ETF inflows were arbitrage, not long-term institutional belief.
• BlackRock’s biggest ‘holders’ aren’t long Bitcoin, they’re long the basis.
• The unwind of those trades is now affecting Bitcoin’s price.

For retail investors, the lesson is simple:
ETF flows tell you more about the futures curve than institutional conviction.

The post Think BlackRock Is Bullish on Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Says They’re Not, Here’s Why appeared first on BeInCrypto.