France has officially lifted all travel restrictions on Telegram founder Pavel Durov as of November 13, 2025, bringing to an end a year of mandatory police check-ins and movement restrictions. The dual French-Russian citizen, detained in Paris in August 2024, can now cross borders freely without judicial oversight.

This development is pivotal in an ongoing criminal investigation that could lead to Durov facing up to 10 years in prison and fines of over $550,000.

From Detention to Freedom: Timeline of Durov’s Legal Restrictions

Durov’s legal troubles began when authorities arrested him at Paris’s Le Bourget Airport in August 2024. The charges involved allegations that Telegram enabled organized crime due to insufficient content moderation. French prosecutors accused the platform of refusing to cooperate in tackling illegal content, with a particular focus on child sex abuse material.

Initially, Durov was barred from leaving France and had to report regularly to the police in Nice. Over several months, the restrictions eased, permitting short, controlled trips to the United Arab Emirates for no more than two weeks. However, he remained under French jurisdiction until now.

According to France 24, Durov complied with all requirements for one year before authorities lifted both travel and judicial restrictions. As a result, mandatory police check-ins and all geographic limitations on his movement were eliminated.

Durov faced three interrogations by French authorities. His lawyers consistently challenged the investigation’s legitimacy and methods, arguing that they violated both domestic and European law.

Criminal Investigation Remains Active as Restrictions End

Although Durov is free to travel, the criminal investigation is ongoing. French authorities are examining Telegram’s alleged role in facilitating illicit transactions, the distribution of child sex abuse imagery, and enabling illegal content. The charges focus on complicity in organized crime rather than direct involvement.

The case portrays Telegram as a platform vulnerable to criminal misuse because of its limited content moderation. During questioning in December 2024, Durov acknowledged growing criminal abuse on Telegram and promised stronger oversight. The platform has since introduced additional moderation tools.

Telegram implemented advanced AI-powered moderation systems in early 2024, according to company documentation. In 2025, the platform reported blocking more than 34 million groups and channels, demonstrating increased enforcement. These steps address frequent criticism that Telegram enables criminal networks.

Despite compliance efforts, Durov still faces the risk of 10 years imprisonment and fines up to $550,000 if convicted. The investigation could set key precedents for platform accountability in Europe, especially for encrypted messaging services popular within cryptocurrency communities.

Durov Criticizes French Authorities, Voices Free Speech Concerns

During the investigation, Durov has publicly criticized French authorities and expressed concerns regarding government overreach. He accused prosecutors of procedural errors and argued that his arrest harmed France’s reputation as a supporter of freedom. Durov has characterized the proceedings as an attack on free speech and encryption.

His defense argues that Telegram acts as a neutral platform, not a vehicle for crime. Durov has positioned himself as a defender of privacy and free expression, standing against what he considers European censorship. This view has resonated with cryptocurrency and privacy advocates who regard encrypted communications as vital to digital freedom.

Social media reactions to the removal of the travel ban have been positive among Durov’s supporters. Nevertheless, the broader legal implications are unresolved. Both Paris prosecutors and Durov’s legal team declined public comment on the current status, so questions about trial timing and outcomes remain.

The case underscores ongoing tensions between privacy-focused tech platforms and regulatory enforcement. As France’s investigation continues, its outcome could influence the regulation of messaging services and platform accountability for user content across Europe. For now, Durov’s restored freedom of movement represents a partial win, yet the legal dispute is far from settled.

The post France Lifts Travel Ban on Telegram Founder Pavel Durov appeared first on BeInCrypto.

VeChain has posted a modest recovery this month after a sharp October decline, but the recent price bounce has not been strong enough to reclaim lost ground. 

VET rose more than 20% in the past week, yet it remains far below pre-crash levels. November has historically delivered strong returns, but traders appear unconvinced this year.

VeChain Has Lost Traders’ Confidence

VeChain’s price performance over the last seven years shows November has usually been its strongest month. The median return of 10.9% and the average return of 20.9% stand as the highest among all months. These gains often come after periods of muted activity, giving long-term holders reason to expect seasonal strength.

However, investors should exercise caution. December has been a difficult month for VET, often reversing November’s momentum. The altcoin has regularly posted losses during this period, signaling that any gains in November may not carry into year-end.

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Market participants remain cautious despite historical tailwinds. VeChain’s open interest (OI) has not recovered since the October crash, when it fell from $110 million to $28 million. That figure has remained unchanged for more than a month, pointing to weak conviction among traders.

This stagnant OI suggests that investors are not yet willing to deploy fresh capital into VET. Low derivatives activity can limit price strength. Furthermore, the lack of renewed participation signals that sentiment remains fragile heading into the final weeks of 2025.

VET Price Is Breakout Remains

At the time of writing, VET is forming a descending wedge pattern and trades at $0.0168. The token sits just below the $0.0173 resistance. This is a key level that could determine whether short-term momentum builds or fades.

A breakout from the wedge would be historically bullish. Such a move could lift VET toward $0.0200, helping erase a portion of the 28% October decline. A push toward this level would also extend the recent 20% weekly rise, strengthening confidence in a near-term recovery.

If VET fails to break above resistance, the pattern may lose its bullish structure. A drop below the $0.0157 support could send the price toward $0.0147. This outcome would weaken the bullish thesis, contradicting VeChain’s typical November performance and signaling continued uncertainty.

The post VeChain’s Historic Best Month Isn’t Helping: Why Traders Are Avoiding VET in November 2025?  appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Criminals in Australia are impersonating law enforcement officers and using forged cybercrime reports to scam people into believing their personal data has been compromised. 

Then, hackers pressure victims into transferring their crypto to scam-controlled wallets, draining their funds.

Scammers Exploit Fake Police Reports

Australian authorities have issued a warning after uncovering a scam in which cybercriminals impersonate federal police to steal cryptocurrency.

The AFP-led cybercrime coordination center has detected a series of schemes in which scammers obtain personal information and use it to lodge fake cybercrime reports through the government’s ReportCyber portal.

Scammers then reportedly call victims and claim their data appeared in a cryptocurrency-related breach. The scammers share a real-looking reference number and direct victims to check it online. The report appears in the system, which makes the call seem legitimate.

A second caller, pretending to be from the victim’s crypto platform, urges them to move their assets into a supposed cold storage wallet.

Officials emphasized that genuine law enforcement officers will never request access to cryptocurrency accounts, seed phrases, or banking details.

This case highlights a growing problem, as scammers are increasingly using social engineering and spoofed phone numbers to deceive victims.

Social Engineering Threats Continue Growing

The Australian scam emerges amid a clear global escalation in social engineering attacks targeting cryptocurrency holders.

🚨Crypto crime is rising fast, bad actors now spend 14x higher fees to stay hidden

Report By @chainalysis

Crypto Theft in 2025 (So Far)
-> $2.17 Billion Stolen by Mid-July 2025
– > Already more than all of 2024

Major Hack: Bybit (North Korea-backed)
–> $1.5 billion stolen… pic.twitter.com/QxFwoxEhYa

— Kashif Raza (@simplykashif) July 18, 2025

In August 2025, a victim lost $91 million worth of Bitcoin after scammers impersonated support staff from Coinbase and major crypto services, marking one of the largest single thefts of its kind. 

Earlier, in the United Kingdom, a fraudster posing as a senior police officer deceived another victim. The user lost $2.8 million in Bitcoin through a fake cold-storage website. 

In May, a global phishing network impersonating Coinbase stole over $20 million by directing users to spoofed support sites. 

Collectively, these cases demonstrate the increasing scale and sophistication of social engineering attacks in the cryptocurrency sector.

The post A New Trend In Crypto Scam – Posing As Police To Steal Millions appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Two opposing crypto strategies went head-to-head during EMCD’s latest Crypto Battle, co-hosted with BeInCrypto, where investors debated how to survive and grow in a volatile market.

The live online event, held on October 30, featured Michael Wrubel, a crypto analyst and YouTuber known for high-risk altcoin strategies, and Jan Warmus, EMCD’s Director of Partnerships, representing a more conservative and mining-focused perspective.

Balancing Risk and Reward

In the first case, both experts assessed a viewer’s Bitcoin-heavy portfolio.

Warmus called it “a sensible, beginner-friendly allocation,” stressing that staying with well-known assets and avoiding coins one doesn’t understand prevents major losses. 

Wrubel countered that while Bitcoin and Ethereum are essential, “the big returns come from lower-cap projects” capable of outsized growth.

The Allure and Danger of Memecoins

When asked how to identify the next 10x token, both speakers agreed such predictions are nearly impossible. Warmus compared the odds to gambling: “Recent analysis showed only 0.12% of new coins reach that level—worse odds than roulette.”

Wrubel focused on sentiment, advising traders to “watch the community on X and Telegram” as hype and engagement often signal potential upside.

Bitcoin Mining Profitability

A story about an early miner selling thousands of BTC for a MacBook set the stage for discussion on Bitcoin’s long-term growth.

Wrubel projected Bitcoin could “surpass $1 million” as institutions adopt it as digital gold. Warmus agreed, linking Bitcoin’s rise to expanding institutional adoption and regulatory clarity. 

However, he warned that mining success now “depends on efficiency, energy costs, and scale,” describing modern mining as “an industrial, not a hobbyist business.”

Even the bots know what’s up… pic.twitter.com/VlVs4x38qU

— EMCD (@emcd_io) November 7, 2025

Institutional and Retail Strategies

For companies with $100,000 to allocate, Wrubel advised a simple 80/20 Bitcoin-Ethereum split. Warmus recommended a diversified model:

• 70–80% in Bitcoin, ideally with some funds in mining infrastructure;

• 15–20% in Ethereum;

• Up to 10% for selective altcoins or tokenized assets.

He emphasized compliance and custody as top priorities for institutional entrants.

For small retail investors, Warmus highlighted Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) as the most reliable entry strategy. “If you invested $100 monthly since 2020, it would now be worth about $26,500,” he said. Wrubel, meanwhile, argued that those seeking “life-changing returns” must accept higher risk with small-cap assets.

Banking, Yield, and Risk

The discussion closed with questions on crypto’s equivalent to bank deposits. Wrubel noted staking as an alternative that provides yield. Warmus cautioned users to remember that “there’s no government guarantee” and that yield always depends on the platform’s risk management.

Closing and Audience Interaction

The session ended with a Q&A and a prize draw for five Tangem wallet winners. Viewers engaged actively in chat, sharing stories of gains and losses.

The contrast between Wrubel’s aggressive investing style and Warmus’s disciplined approach underscored the debate’s central theme: crypto success lies in balancing risk, knowledge, and patience.

The post EMCD’s Crypto Battle Highlights The Best Investment Strategies For Beginners appeared first on BeInCrypto.

BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (BMNR) is down almost 28% over the past month, while Bitcoin fell about 7.5% and Ethereum slipped 11.6% in the same window. But over the past six months, the BitMine price is still up 394%, far outperforming both assets.

Since BitMine mines Bitcoin and also holds Ethereum, it trades like a high-beta version of both. With Bitcoin showing early bottom signs and Ethereum stabilizing, BMNR now sits at a point where one breakout could restart its aggressive trend.

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Price Strength Aligns With Volume And Trend Support

BMNR’s recent bounce from $35.73 to $40.60 was not a weak move or a dead cat bounce. The rise lined up with On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks whether volume is flowing in or out of an asset. OBV formed a higher low at the same time price formed a higher low between November 6 and November 11. That confirmed the rebound strength.

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OBV even printed a fresh higher high while price did not, which often shows hidden strength behind the candles. That’s the first bullish sign.

The trend indicator, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), also supports the broader structure. Between August 1 and November 6, the BitMine price formed a higher low while the RSI formed a lower low, a hidden bullish divergence. That hints at seller exhaustion and a supposed local bottom, echoing Bitcoin’s bottom theory.

This continuation signal matches the six-month performance and shows the broader uptrend is still intact. Because BMNR reacts harder to Bitcoin and Ethereum, any upside in those assets tends to amplify its move.

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One Roadblock Remains: Weak Money Flows Still Limit The Breakout

The missing piece comes from the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a tool that measures buying and selling pressure based on volume and price. CMF remains below zero and has been moving inside a downward trend. Every attempt CMF makes to break above that line tends to trigger a strong BMNR reaction.

The last attempt, between 6–7 November, helped BMNR jump 12%, showing how sensitive the stock is to money-flow strength.

Institutional accumulation is visible, with funds such as ARK Invest, BlackRock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Sumitomo Mitsui, and others holding millions of BMNR shares.

Institutional investors are accumulating $BMNR shares in the millions. Don’t sell them your shares!

They buy BitMine for a reason 🤔

THEY KNOW WHAT’S ABOUT TO HAPPEN pic.twitter.com/gEc2uQWYrs

— Lior (@liorsela) November 12, 2025

But this has not yet been enough to push CMF above zero. Until CMF breaks its downward line and reclaims the zero level, money-flow pressure remains the only factor keeping BMNR from a cleaner breakout. Simply put, the BitMine price breakout hopes rest on the CMF breakout chances.

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Key BitMine Price Levels Now Decide What Happens Next

BMNR now trades at a point where the upside and downside are clearly defined. The first major hurdle sits at $42.76. A close above this level opens the path toward $54.11, a strong barrier that has stopped most rally attempts since October 15. If BMNR can close above $54.11, the structure strengthens further toward $65.47, and even $71.79 if crypto momentum improves.

The downside remains simple. The entire setup fails only if BMNR breaks below $35.74. A clean move under this level exposes $30.29, which would invalidate the trend continuation signal from RSI and start a deeper downtrend.

For now, BMNR holds a bullish continuation structure, backed by OBV and RSI. But the breakout needs CMF to flip. Until the money-flow signal confirms, the chart stays strong but unconfirmed.

The post BitMine Stock (BMNR) Holds Bullish Structure, But One Roadblock Remains appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the second time in a week on Thursday, signalling renewed fragility in a market dominated by forced liquidations and heavy selling from long-term holders. 

At the time of reporting, BTC was trading near $98,400. The drop erased a brief recovery above six figures and pushed sentiment toward caution across major trading desks.

Bitcoin Price Fails to Maintain the $100,000 Psychological Level

The decline triggered a new wave of liquidations. Data shows over $683 million wiped out in the past 24 hours, including $556 million in long positions. Traders were heavily positioned for upside. 

Bitcoin alone accounted for $164.5 million in liquidations over the last four hours, with Ethereum and Solana adding another $145 million combined. 

Also, pressure intensified from long-term holders (LTH), one of Bitcoin’s most stable cohorts. 

According to CryptoQuant data, addresses holding BTC for more than six months sold approximately 815,000 BTC in the last 30 days. This is the highest level of selling since January 2024. 

The chart indicates a sustained distribution across cohorts ranging from 6 months to 7+ years, resulting in a consistent supply overhang at current prices.

This selling wave resembles prior cycle peaks where long-term holders locked in profits after multi-month rallies. The pattern is visible on the charts. 

Each spike in LTH spending corresponds with local tops and periods of prolonged consolidation. The current climb to 815,000 BTC spent mirrors the heavy distribution seen at the 2021 and early-2024 highs.

Market analysts note that long-term holder behaviour matters more than short-term trading noise. When seasoned wallets send coins back into circulation, liquidity deepens, but price support weakens. 

It's another one of those days:

All asset classes are trading sharply lower today.

And, attempted intra-day relief rallies are being sold into new lows; a textbook "emotional" correction.

This has become an increasingly common occurrence in 2025, particularly amid record…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 13, 2025

Combined with the largest liquidation cluster of the week, the market absorbed both forced selling and voluntary selling at once—magnifying the drawdown.

The next key test sits at the $98,000–$100,000 range, where buyers must step in to prevent a deeper move toward mid-cycle support levels.

The post Bitcoin Drops Below $100,000 For The Second Time In a Week appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Analysts warn that several subtle market signals suggest Bitcoin may be approaching the start of a bear market in November. 

Selling pressure from long-term holders, weakening correlation behavior with tech stocks, and Bitcoin’s failure to hold key technical levels are all indicating a fading of bullish momentum. These trends indicate growing downside risk even amid supportive macro conditions.

Early Warning Signs

Market analysts are increasingly concerned that Bitcoin’s broader uptrend may be weakening. One of the clearest warning signs is coming from long-term holders.

Since mid-year, veteran investors and early whales have been steadily selling their positions, a trend that has accelerated in the past year.

Long-term $BTC holders are accelerating their distribution, with supply declining fast and net position change falling sharply into negative territory.
LTHs are booking profits as bulls defend $100k. https://t.co/yatqA1O7nd pic.twitter.com/rZ8XMSRZXR

— glassnode (@glassnode) November 13, 2025

This shift has triggered a danger signal on the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator. The metric shows when older, inactive coins suddenly move or get sold.

This month, negative CDD readings have coincided with ETF outflows, resulting in a combination of weak demand and rising supply.

“Long-term holders might be distributing into weakness, not strength—a potential bearish signal,” community analyst Maartunn said in a social media post.

While selling pressure from long-term holders is significant, a broader concern arises when examining Bitcoin’s behavior in relation to traditional financial markets.

A Weak Response to Bullish Catalysts

Wintermute data shows that Bitcoin still moves closely with the Nasdaq-100, maintaining a correlation near 0.8.

Yet this relationship is becoming asymmetric. When the Nasdaq drops, Bitcoin tends to fall more sharply. When the Nasdaq rallies, Bitcoin reacts only mildly.

This imbalance reflects behavior observed in earlier bearish periods, such as the 2022 crypto winter. It suggests that investors treat Bitcoin as a high-risk asset during downturns but are hesitant to reward it when conditions improve.

“Historically, this kind of negative asymmetry doesn’t appear near tops but rather shows up near bottoms. When BTC falls harder on bad equity days than it rises on good ones, it usually signals exhaustion, not strength,” Wintermute’s Jasper de Maere said in a blog post.

Adding to this caution is Bitcoin’s recent failure to rebound from its 50-week moving average. This is the first time since the previous cycle bottom that BTC has not bounced from that long-term support. 

For the first time since the bottom of the bear market, Bitcoin has not bounced off the 50w MA.

Prior to this month, Bitcoin has bounced of the 50w MA three times.

Each time, it was followed by a large move to the upside. This time, it seems to be changing the trend. https://t.co/vR4qJsXPOq pic.twitter.com/2nTuBkCTdT

— ₿rett (@brett_eth) November 12, 2025

In earlier stages of the cycle, Bitcoin recovered from this level three times, each recovery triggering a strong rally. The latest failure to reclaim the 50-week MA suggests that a potential trend reversal may be forming.

Although not conclusive on their own, these signals become more notable because Bitcoin is declining despite government stimulus and despite Federal Reserve rate cuts. Normally, both developments act as strong bullish catalysts. 

The post The Silent Signals Hinting Bitcoin’s Next Bear Market May Start in November appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The question traders keep asking is simple: Will a crypto crash in 2026 happen, or has it already started? Every major downturn in this market has always followed the same pattern: Bitcoin completes its cycle top, sentiment peaks, and a major correction begins a few weeks later.

So, before we talk about the crash timeline, we need to establish whether Bitcoin has already topped. The usual peak window has passed, yet the key top signals have never been triggered. If the top is still ahead, the crash window moves into 2026. Here is how the data fits together.

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Bitcoin’s Four-Year Supply Clock Is the First Clue For the Crypto Crash

Bitcoin runs on a predictable schedule. Every 210,000 blocks, the block reward halves. This reduces new supply and normally pushes prices higher for twelve to eighteen months. Earlier cycles behaved the same way. The 2012 halving led to a top after about 13 months, the 2016 halving topped after around 17 months, and the 2020 halving peaked after about 18 months.

By this pattern, the April 20, 2024, halving pointed toward a peak between July and October 2025. Bitcoin even touched $126,000 in early October, and at the time, it looked like a textbook cycle top.

If this Bitcoin $BTC cycle mirrors 2015–2018 or 2018–2022, the top was on Oct 26, and a macro downtrend may have already begun. pic.twitter.com/7Vjm8p02sK

— Ali (@ali_charts) November 12, 2025

But one confirmation was missing. The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator, which has marked every major peak within one or two days, did not cross. Without that crossover, the October high becomes a mid-cycle high, not the final peak. That raises the question: what kept the cycle alive?

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

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Why This Cycle Is Running Longer Than Usual

Two forces extended this cycle beyond its normal timing.

First, ETF flows absorbed more supply than miners produced. Since early 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in more than $60 billion. Miners issue about 13,875 BTC per month, worth around $1.4 billion at current prices. During strong inflow periods, ETFs absorbed $4–5 billion per month, removing new supply faster than the network could create it.

Second, global liquidity has remained elevated. Money supply across major economies still grows over 6% year-over-year, central banks slowed tightening, and reserves stayed high.

Strong liquidity delays exhaustion and keeps risk assets supported. These two drivers pushed the cycle further than the usual halving window allows. With this backdrop, we move to the most accurate timing tool for final peaks: the Pi-Cycle Top Indicator.

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Pi-Cycle: What It Is and What the Updated Numbers Tell Us

The Pi-Cycle Top Indicator compares two moving averages: the 111-day average and twice the 350-day average. When the 111-day line rises above the slower one, Bitcoin is usually one or two days from the final top. The signal has been precise in every major cycle.

As of November 11, 2025:

• 111-day average: $113,394
• 2×350-day average: $205,767
• Gap: $92,373

To project when the lines will meet, we look at the slope of the 111-day average. Over recent months, it has risen between $200 and $400 per day. At $200 per day, the crossover would be about 462 days away, which points to February 2027. In case it moves at $320 per day, the “lines meet” sit around 289 days away, which points to August 2026. At $400 per day, it is roughly 231 days away, pointing to June 2026.

This places the realistic Pi-Cycle window between June and September 2026. Since Pi-Cycle has never missed a major peak, the October 2025 high is unlikely to be the final top. To understand how high Bitcoin can climb before the crypto crash comes knocking, we move to valuation — the MVRV Z-Score.

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MVRV: What It Measures and When It Can Reach the Risk Zone

MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, which reflects the average price at which all coins last moved. High MVRV means holders have large unrealized profits, and past cycles topped when MVRV surged into extreme zones.

As of 12 November 2025:

• Market value: $2.05 trillion
• MVRV: 1.81

This implies a realized value near $1.13 trillion. Past cycle peaks typically formed when MVRV reached between 3.0 and 7.0. For this cycle, the warning zone is 3.0 to 3.5.

At MVRV 3.0, Bitcoin’s market value would be near $3.39 trillion, which equals roughly $174,000 per coin. At MVRV 3.5, the market value would be about $3.96 trillion, which equals roughly $203,000 per coin. These are the valuation ceilings where the market usually becomes unstable.

The Pi-Cycle top also falls in between these MVRV-led projections:

JUST IN: The Pi Cycle Top Indicator shows that #Bitcoin may top out above $194,500 this cycle 🚀

Bullish! 🐂 pic.twitter.com/Fj7uBmiEyq

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) September 19, 2025

MVRV usually enters this zone about one month before the Pi-Cycle crossover. If the crossover happens in June 2026, MVRV overheats in May. In case it happens in August, risk builds in June or July. If it is in September, the pressure shifts into July or August. This places the MVRV risk window between May and August 2026, depending on how quickly the 111-day average of the Pi-Cycle climbs.

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Global Liquidity Index: Why It Matters After Bitcoin MVRV

Bitcoin does not rely on internal metrics alone. Liquidity conditions determine how far the final surge can go. The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) tracks liquidity from major central banks and the broad money supply. Bitcoin reacts strongly to this index. In 2017 and 2021, GLI topped before Bitcoin, and Bitcoin peaked shortly afterward.

As of November 2025, GLI sits near 75 and has been rising by about four points per month. This pace comes from the index climbing roughly 18–20 points over the last five months. GLI peaks usually formed near 90, which places the next liquidity high between March and May 2026.

If the Federal Reserve turns softer, liquidity may stretch deeper into the year.

This creates a clear alignment. MVRV overheats in spring 2026, GLI peaks in spring 2026, and Pi-Cycle points to momentum exhaustion in summer 2026. The mismatch between liquidity and momentum sets up a classic bull-trap: liquidity peaks first, the market dips, and then Bitcoin pushes into a final, higher peak as Pi-Cycle completes.

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The Convergence: The Full Picture

All major indicators converge within a single broad structure. The halving extension pushes the cycle top into mid-2026. MVRV shows overheating between May and August 2026. GLI suggests liquidity peaks between March and May 2026. Pi-Cycle points to a final top between June and September 2026.

This creates a March to August 2026 window where liquidity and momentum collide. The market may form two peaks: a liquidity-driven high in spring that becomes a bull trap, and a final Pi-Cycle peak in summer. A realistic top range is $200,000 to $250,000, which fits the valuation ceiling and the momentum timeline.

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When Will the Crypto Crash in 2026 Begin?

In earlier cycles, Bitcoin fell one to four weeks after the final top. With the indicators aligning, the next major crypto crash in 2026 can begin any time from March to August, depending on which peak arrives first.

A crash, however, is only the first phase. A true bear market begins when lower highs and lower lows form for several consecutive weeks. In past cycles, this confirmation arrived six to ten weeks after the final top. Applying that pattern here, if Bitcoin peaks between June and September 2026, the confirmed bear market would begin between August and November 2026. This is when long-term downside pressure takes over, not just a sharp correction.

If liquidity peaks first, Bitcoin may fall 25–35%, reset leverage, and then attempt a final surge. If liquidity and momentum align later, the decline starts after the Pi-Cycle crossover.

Expected decline ranges:

• A moderate drop of 50–60% pulls Bitcoin toward $90,000–$110,000
• A deeper drop of 70% pushes it toward $70,000–$80,000

ETF custody may slow the fall, turning it into a longer correction instead of a sudden collapse. The key point stays the same: the $126,000 high in 2025 was not the cycle top. The real peak lies ahead in 2026, and the crash window opens soon after.

The post Will Crypto Crash in 2026 – Predicting The Next Bear Market appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The Czech National Bank (CNB) has entered the digital asset market for the first time on Thursday, allocating $1 million to build a blockchain-based pilot portfolio. This acquisition was conducted separately from the bank’s official international reserves.

The CNB emphasized that it has no intention of adding Bitcoin or other digital assets to its official international reserves. Instead, it made this move to prepare for a future in which digital currencies are more widely used.

Czechia Launches Pilot Crypto Portfolio

Along with its Bitcoin exposure, the CNB’s pilot portfolio will also hold a USD-denominated stablecoin and a tokenized deposit recorded on the blockchain. 

The bank noted that the size of this portfolio will remain fixed. Its goal is to gain hands-on experience managing digital assets.

The CNB will examine how to manage private keys and set up multi-level approvals. It will also conduct crisis simulations, review security procedures, and verify compliance with AML regulations.

The Czech National Bank has purchased digital assets for the first time in its history. 🌐

Through this USD 1 million investment, the CNB has created a test portfolio of digital assets based on blockchain. 🔗 In addition to bitcoin, the portfolio will include a test investment… pic.twitter.com/H6qj9HJHRw

— Česká národní banka (@CNB_cz) November 13, 2025

The board approved the purchase last month after reviewing an analysis exploring potential investments outside traditional asset classes. That report concluded that digital assets are developing rapidly and are likely to see broader adoption over time. 

“The aim was to test decentralised bitcoin from the central bank’s perspective and to evaluate its potential role in diversifying our reserves,” said CNB Governor Aleš Michl in a press release.

Although the move may seem small in scale, it carries wider significance.

CNB Pushes Forward Despite ECB Pushback

Central banks rarely buy digital assets directly, and the CNB’s decision signals a shift toward hands-on understanding rather than theoretical observation. The pilot does not signal a change in reserve strategy, but it does show that the bank wants to build internal expertise before digital assets become mainstream in payments.

The CNB’s decision comes shortly after Luxembourg’s sovereign wealth fund disclosed that it had allocated one percent of its portfolio to Bitcoin-based securities. That move made Luxembourg the first European country to take such a step. 

The CNB’s announcement now shows that Luxembourg wasn’t the only member state exploring direct exposure to digital assets.

JUST IN: 🚨🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde says #Bitcoin will NOT enter the reserves of any of the Central Banks of the General Council. pic.twitter.com/5yb55mDgHI

— Subjective Views (@subjectiveviews) January 30, 2025

Czechia’s decision came as something of a surprise. In January, the CNB announced that it was considering adding Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Just one day later, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde dismissed the idea, stating firmly that Bitcoin had no place in the European central banking system.

The CNB’s announcement today marks a subtle pushback against the ECB’s stance on crypto.

The board has found a way to pursue its interest in Bitcoin without straining its relationship with Lagarde. By keeping the asset outside its official reserves, it can experiment without challenging ECB policy.

The post Czechia Buys $1 Million In Bitcoin –– But It’s Not Building a Reserve appeared first on BeInCrypto.

HBAR price is down almost 1% today and has traded flat over the past month. It is up 5.7% in the last seven days, but that bounce does not change the bigger picture.

The chart is close to forming a bearish structure that points to a deeper drop unless one level holds.

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Bearish Pattern Forms as Two Risks Amplify

HBAR is close to completing a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart. If price slips below the neckline, the setup signals a potential 28% decline. This pattern is not confirmed yet, but it sits near completion — and the next moves depend heavily on volume behavior.

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That brings the focus to On-Balance Volume (OBV), a tool that tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of the asset. OBV has been rising slowly along an ascending trendline since 23 October, but this is not a strong signal.

Each time OBV drifts toward the lower edge of this trendline, HBAR price pulls back, showing that buyers are barely holding momentum. OBV is now back at the edge again, which increases the risk of a breakdown. If OBV slips under this line, the head-and-shoulders setup gains momentum.

A second risk comes from the leverage map. Over the past seven days on Bitget alone:

• Long liquidations: 17.95 million
• Short liquidations: 14.34 million

Longs outweigh shorts by almost 25%, which leaves the market exposed. If price reaches the neckline, led by weak OBV, a long squeeze could kick in, accelerating the downside.

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Key Levels Now Decide Whether HBAR Price Drops or Escapes

HBAR now comes down to two paths:

Bearish path (likely if the neckline breaks): The neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern sits near $0.160. A clean drop below it completes the structure and exposes a 28% fall, with the HBAR price chart pointing toward $0.113 and even $0.100 if long liquidations cascade.

Bullish path (only if reclaimed): A recovery starts only if HBAR reclaims $0.199 with strength. A full invalidation happens at $0.219, which erases the pattern and shifts momentum back to buyers.

For any bullish scenario to hold, OBV must stay above its ascending trendline. If OBV fails, the neckline breaks faster — and the long squeeze risk increases sharply. For now, the HBAR price is heading toward a crash site, with one level ($0.160) still standing between the price and the fall.

The post HBAR Heads Toward a Crash Site — One Level Stands Between Price and the Fall appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee — this one’s worth sitting with. The once-unshakable link between MicroStrategy’s stock and its Bitcoin fortune is showing cracks. The company that turned corporate balance sheets into crypto vaults now faces a market reckoning as its long-standing Bitcoin premium has vanished. The timing could not be more symbolic.

Crypto News of the Day: MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Premium Finally Breaks

MicroStrategy’s famed Bitcoin premium, a key symbol of institutional faith in the crypto market, has officially evaporated. This comes five months after the metric was under stress, reported in a mid-May US Crypto News publication.

The company’s market capitalization ($64.54 billion as of this writing) fell below the value of its Bitcoin holdings ($66.15 billion), a first in years for the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

“Wait, what? MicroStrategy’s total market cap has already fallen below the value of the Bitcoin it holds!? … Now, the premium market for MicroStrategy has truly come to an end,” wrote analyst AB Kuai Dong.

Floating Profits Still Strong For Now As Financing Momentum Slows

Despite the loss of premium, MicroStrategy’s balance sheet remains deeply tied to Bitcoin’s performance. The firm holds 641,692 BTC at an average cost of $74,085 per coin, meaning it still enjoys roughly 39.10% in unrealized gains even if Bitcoin retraces to $102,918, Dong noted in a follow-up post.

MicroStrategy has built its massive Bitcoin position through a unique and aggressive convertible bond financing model.

Unlike Tom Lee’s BitMine Immersion, discussed in the previous US Crypto News, MicroStrategy’s allows the company to acquire Bitcoin without diluting its shareholders.

Investors purchasing these bonds typically accept lower yields in exchange for the potential to convert them into shares at a later date. This is an attractive proposition if both MicroStrategy’s stock and the Bitcoin price rise.

“…once MSTR gets the money, it will directly go buy BTC. If BTC rises in the future and the stock price rises in tandem, investors will convert the bonds into shares and earn more money. In this way, the debt issued by Strategy disappears into thin air,” Dong explained.

However, Dong warned that MicroStrategy’s financing momentum has begun to weaken, with the company’s stock price under pressure and bond buyers growing more cautious.

“After the stock price performs poorly, will anyone still buy the new bond issuances? The amount of Bitcoin they add each week has shown a clear trend of decreasing, with some insufficiency in financing momentum,” he posed.

Market observers have also confirmed this slowdown. Crypto commentator Sun Xinjin noted that MicroStrategy has not issued new convertible bonds since February 2025, shifting instead to preferred share offerings (the STR series) beginning in September 2025.

These preferred shares carry significantly higher interest rates, suggesting investors now demand stronger incentives amid tightening market conditions. Dong confirmed that the latest fundraising effort in Europe followed this newer structure.

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Take Profits

The developments come as on-chain data shows long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) are increasingly taking profits near the $100,000 mark.

Analytics firm Glassnode reported that LTH supply is declining fast, with the net position change falling sharply into negative territory, signaling an acceleration in long-term distribution.

Long-term $BTC holders are accelerating their distribution, with supply declining fast and net position change falling sharply into negative territory.
LTHs are booking profits as bulls defend $100k. https://t.co/yatqA1O7nd pic.twitter.com/rZ8XMSRZXR

— glassnode (@glassnode) November 13, 2025

Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, echoed this trend, saying that the recent price stagnation has left many veteran holders fatigued.

“Bitcoin’s performance has recently lagged gold’s, even the S&P, and people are getting tired…Long-term holders are looking to make year-end tax and positional changes, calling it a day with the gains they already have,” Kuiper explained.

For MicroStrategy and its CEO, Michael Saylor, this moment marks a critical test. The firm remains profitable on paper but faces tightening financing options and shifting investor sentiment.

As bond markets cool and Bitcoin holders take profits, the company’s ability to sustain its accumulation strategy may hinge on whether Bitcoin’s next leg higher materializes before 2026.

Chart of the Day

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

• Big short investor exits Wall Street again —Is crypto the only trade left standing?
• XRP goes mainstream: First-ever US spot XRP ETF approved—trading starts tomorrow.
• Historic shutdown ends; Fed left blind without data as Congress presses forward.
• SharpLink’s Ethereum bet pays off: Massive Q3 profit and 1,100% revenue jump.
• Analysts reveal the chart that predicts Bitcoin better than M2 ever did.
• Bitcoin stares at its next peak from the bottom, but one level blocks the view.
• Solana at a breaking point: $1,000 moonshot or crash back to $100?
• BitMine stock (BMNR) holds a bullish structure, but one roadblock remains.
• Will crypto crash in 2026 – Predicting the next bear market.

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

Company	At the Close of November 12	Pre-Market Overview
Strategy (MSTR)	$224.61	$225.70 (+0.49%)
Coinbase (COIN)	$304.00	$305.00 (+0.33%)
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)	$31.27	$31.42 (+0.48%)
MARA Holdings (MARA)	$14.41	$14.40 (-0.069%)
Riot Platforms (RIOT)	$15.46	$15.42 (-0.26%)
Core Scientific (CORZ)	$16.44	$16.37 (-0.435%)

The post MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Premium Vanishes as Long-Term Holders Cash Out | US Crypto News appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Pi Coin is struggling to regain momentum after days of stagnant price movement. The token has failed to register meaningful growth as investor support remains weak and broader market sentiment stays bearish. 

Despite attempts to stabilize, Pi Coin continues to face pressure from declining participation and unfavorable technical indicators.

Pi Coin Holders Are Not Doing Enough

The lack of investor engagement is becoming increasingly evident on-chain. Data from the top 100 transactions in the past 24 hours shows that only slightly more than 9 million PI moved across the network. This activity is valued at under $2.45 million, highlighting the minimal transactional volume supporting the asset.

Among these, the largest transaction involved PI worth less than $319,000, revealing limited interest from major holders. Such low-value movements signal that investors are not actively contributing to liquidity or momentum. 

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Pi Coin’s broader outlook is further challenged by bearish macro indicators. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows a squeeze forming, marked by extending red bars. This pattern reflects strengthening bearish pressure, suggesting that market sentiment may deteriorate further before finding relief.

When the squeeze eventually releases, Pi Coin is likely to face heightened volatility. Given the current bias toward downward momentum, this volatility could trigger a sharper price drop. The ongoing buildup in bearish energy signals that Pi Coin may struggle to maintain its current range.

PI Price Remains Consolidated

Pi Coin is trading at $0.227 at the time of writing and continues to consolidate between $0.234 and $0.217. The token lacks the strength needed to break above the $0.234 resistance level, reflecting the effects of investor apathy and weak market conditions.

Given the indicators mentioned above, Pi Coin is likely to remain rangebound. If pressures intensify, the price may slip below $0.217, extending the ongoing decline and weakening recovery prospects. Without a shift in sentiment, consolidation may persist.

However, if investors step in to support the asset, Pi Coin could regain upward momentum. A break above the $0.234 resistance would open the path to $0.246. This would invalidate the current bearish thesis and offer the first signs of stabilization.

The post Pi Coin Investors’ Support Remains Weak, Price To Suffer The Consequences appeared first on BeInCrypto.