Block, Inc. shares soared almost 9% on Wednesday after revealing plans to achieve $15.8 billion in gross profit by 2028 and announcing a $5 billion share repurchase, underscoring confidence in continued profitability.
The three-year outlook, launched at the 2025 Investor Day, marks a strategic shift for the Jack Dorsey-led company. Block is moving beyond its core point-of-sale operation into consumer services, artificial intelligence tools, and Bitcoin infrastructure.
Block mapped out a roadmap targeting mid-teens percentage gross profit growth annually through 2028. The company expects adjusted operating income to rise about 30% per year, reaching $4.6 billion by 2028. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to grow by more than 30% each year, reaching $5.50 in 2028.
The event featured a rare appearance by CEO Jack Dorsey. The stock had dropped 30% earlier in 2025 due to competition in payments. However, the trading halt and subsequent announcement quickly reversed that decline.
For fiscal year 2026, Block projects gross profit rising 17% to nearly $12 billion. Adjusted operating income and earnings per share are each expected to climb by more than 30%, reaching $2.7 billion and $3.20, respectively. The new non-GAAP cash flow metric, which accounts for capital needs in lending, is forecast to get 25% of gross profit—more than $4 billion—by 2028.
Block aims to achieve the “Rule of 40” benchmark in 2026 and sustain it through 2028. This performance measure, combining revenue growth and profit margin over 40%, is a key target for software and fintech firms. Block’s official release emphasized efficiency, scale, and product innovation in its financial networks.
The expanded buyback program adds $5 billion to the $1.1 billion remaining from a previous authorization. In total, Block now has about $6.1 billion available for share repurchases, signaling confidence in cash generation.
Recent Performance Lays Out Growth Platform
Block reported mixed Q3 results, with earnings and revenue slightly missing analyst expectations. However, gross profit rose 18.3%, driven primarily by Cash App’s 24.3% increase. Square also contributed with a 9.2% gain in gross profit.
Cash App remained Block’s growth engine. Monthly active users reached 58 million, with profit per user rising 25.3%. Gross Payment Volume grew 10.9% year-over-year.
Subscription and services revenue increased 22.6%, indicating healthy recurring income streams. Bitcoin-related revenue, however, fell 19%. Despite this, Block maintains strong liquidity with ample cash reserves against manageable debt levels.
Management noted that since 2022’s investor day, gross profit has nearly doubled and adjusted EBITDA has tripled. The company now runs 26 products generating over $100 million in annual gross profit, showing healthy diversification across its portfolio.
Strategic Initiatives Broaden Block’s Reach
Block’s expansion plan includes ventures in tech and finance beyond payment processing. Its brands include Square, Cash App, Afterpay (buy-now-pay-later), TIDAL (music streaming), Bitkey (Bitcoin wallets), and Proto (Bitcoin mining products).
In October, Square launched Square Bitcoin, enabling over 4 million US merchants to accept and manage Bitcoin through existing Square systems. Merchants can accept Bitcoin at checkout, convert up to 50% of daily sales, and manage holdings on the Square Dashboard.
The Bitcoin payment program began with zero transaction fees for 1 year, starting November 10, 2025. The rollout covers all US states except New York due to regulatory limits. The 2024 pilot saw merchants accumulate 142 BTC, indicating strong interest in BNB and other cryptocurrencies among retailers.
The company is deploying artificial intelligence tools for merchants and expanding Cash App’s financial services. Management stressed technical unification and efficiency across the ecosystem. These efforts aim to reduce reliance on the core point-of-sale business, where competition from PayPal, Stripe, and traditional processors has grown.
COO and CFO Amrita Ahuja underscored Block’s focus on scale and long-term value. Leadership voiced confidence in innovation and investment as drivers of compounding growth and margin expansion through 2028.
Over its 10-year journey since its 2015 IPO, Block has transformed from a card reader provider into a diversified fintech giant. The November 19 announcements seek to chart a clear path as the company matures in core markets and pursues growth in cryptocurrency infrastructure and AI-driven services.
Nvidia surprised markets by posting fiscal third-quarter revenue of $57.01 billion, beating Wall Street estimates by almost $2 billion.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin rebounded above $91,000 after briefly dipping below $89,000, as analysts attributed much of the crypto market’s decline to growing concerns about a potential AI bubble.
Nvidia Smashes Wall Street Targets During Volatility
The chip giant reported $1.30 earnings per share and revenue of $57.01 billion for its fiscal third quarter, outperforming estimates of $1.26 EPS and $55.2 billion in revenue. Its data center business, which enables AI applications, contributed $51.2 billion—showing a sharp rise from previous periods.
CEO Jensen Huang noted ongoing strong demand for the company’s Blackwell chip architecture and cloud GPUs, reporting that products remain sold out. Nvidia’s forward guidance was also robust, with projected fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion—beating analyst forecasts of $62 billion.
CFO Colette Kress pointed to another driver behind the firm’s results: CUDA-powered accelerators are extending hardware lifespans, boosting customer value, and solidifying Nvidia’s competitive edge in AI infrastructure. While the gaming unit drew $4.3 billion in revenue—slightly under expectations—it still delivered solid returns.
Nvidia’s market value recently surpassed $5 trillion, reinforcing its status as the world’s most valuable company. The stock has climbed 37% year-to-date and 25% over the last 12 months. Shares surged 5% following the earnings report, while chipmakers like AMD and Micron also rode the AI wave.
Bitcoin Rebounds as AI Investment Sentiment Returns
Bitcoin recovered on Thursday morning in Asia, jumping above $91,000 after testing lows below $89,000. The quick rebound implies some investors view current prices as entry opportunities despite uncertainty.
Major investors have recently shown caution toward AI stocks. Peter Thiel exited a $100 million stake in Nvidia. SoftBank sold about $5.8 billion in shares. These moves sparked debate over whether AI-driven rallies can last.
Regulators have also flagged risks. The Bank of England warned of systemic threats from widespread AI use in finance. The IMF cited bubble risks in its global stability assessments.
A Bank of America survey found 45% of fund managers see an AI bubble as the most significant market threat. Google CEO Sundar Pichai and JP Morgan’s Daniel Pinto warned of “irrationality”. Klarna’s CEO expressed concern over massive data center investments driven by AI demand.
However, Nvidia’s Q3 results revived AI investment sentiment. Nvidia defended its business model during its earnings call, while the data center’s accounting methods had been questioned. The strong results proved AI demand remains robust despite skepticism. Bitcoin prices also appeared to benefit from the renewed optimism.
Risk Correlations Deepen Across Crypto and Equities
Recent market turmoil has shown an increased correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional risk assets. Bitcoin’s decline has mirrored declines across major stock indices such as the S&P 500, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, and Stoxx Europe 600. Crypto-linked stocks are now more often seen as closely tied to the global risk environment.
Gold, usually considered a haven, also fell amid uncertainty. Rising US interest rates and reduced hopes for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts have pressured both gold and cryptocurrencies. The global crypto market lost over $1 trillion in value over the last six weeks, losing a quarter of its value since October.
Technical outlooks on Bitcoin remain split. Some analysts interpret current trading as re-accumulation—long-term investors buying at lower prices. Others argue that buyer fatigue signals a possible deeper correction ahead.
Nvidia’s robust results offer some reassurance to investors amid concerns about a bubble. However, whether this can restore wider market confidence or prove to be an outlier remains uncertain as investors navigate complex signals around technology valuations and the economic outlook.
Cardano has been one of the weakest large-cap coins this month. The Cardano price has dropped almost 30% over the past 30 days and nearly 26% since November 11. This drop pushed ADA toward the lower support of its falling wedge, a structure that usually leans bullish but can turn long-term bearish if broken.
Even with this pressure, three important indicators have turned positive just as Cardano sits on its last major support.
Early Signs of Buyer Strength Near Last Support
Two indicators that track buying strength and volume behavior have shifted at the same time, right as the Cardano price reached the critical $0.45 support.
The CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) tracks whether money is flowing in or out based on price and volume. It had been falling since November 10 and even dropped under zero during Cardano’s sharp correction. But from November 16 to November 19, CMF formed a higher high while the price made a lower high. This is a bullish divergence because CMF rising while price weakens shows stronger inflows than the chart reflects.
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On-Balance Volume is a simple way to see if buyers or sellers have been more active. OBV had been stuck under a downward trend line for weeks, matching the steady decline in Cardano price. But as ADA touched the $0.45 zone, OBV pushed above this trend line for the first time in a while. This usually shows buyers starting to participate again before the ADA price reacts.
When CMF and OBV improve together near a major support, it often means the market may be preparing for a short-term recovery attempt. But the Cardano price still needs validation from its on-chain behavior.
Holder Behavior Shows Strong Conviction During the Drop
The Spent Coins Age Band tracks how many tokens from different wallet age groups are being moved. When many coins move at once, it often signals fear or heavy selling. When token movement drops while prices fall, it usually shows conviction from long-term holders.
On November 1, ADA saw its spent coins activity peak with the movement of 159.01 million tokens. By November 19, the metric had dropped by roughly 27%, even though the price kept falling.
This means far fewer tokens moved during the correction. When token movement drops this sharply during a sell-off, it strengthens the idea that Cardano may be trying to save its trendline support rather than break below it. That’s the third reason pushing for the rebound angle.
Cardano Price Must Hold $0.45 or Risk a Breakdown
Cardano price is trading directly on the lower trend line of its falling wedge and its strongest support at $0.45–$0.44. If this zone holds on a daily close, ADA can attempt a rebound. Moving above $0.50–$0.52 would be the first sign of strength, but the real recovery begins only after Cardano retakes $0.60.
That level flips the short-term trend and sets up a retest of $0.69, which is the point where a full wedge breakout becomes possible. Crossing that level would mean that the Cardano price could turn its supposed rebound into a rally attempt.
If the support fails, the structure breaks. A daily close under $0.44 opens a drop toward $0.40, with the possibility of deeper dips if market sentiment weakens further. The bullish setup becomes invalid below this zone.
BMNR stock is up 4.3% today, even as it remains down more than 21% over the past five days, mostly following Ethereum’s 12% slide this week. With Q4 earnings set for November 21, early strength in the BMNR price has raised the question of whether the stock is positioning itself ahead of the market, again.
The last time this happened, BMNR moved much earlier than Ethereum. With bottoming signs flashing across crypto, traders are watching to see if history is lining up once more.
BMNR Has Front-Run Ethereum Before — And Conditions Look Similar
Between June 26 and July 3, Ethereum moved only 10%. In that same period, BitMine (BMNR) surged 3,993% from $3.91 to $160.10. It is worth noting that the Q3 results came out on July 2.
Only after BMNR’s explosion did Ethereum begin its real run, rallying more than 100% from early July to late August. BMNR had clearly priced in the move earlier, showing a pattern of reacting to expectations rather than the move itself.
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Now, with several bottoming signals forming across Bitcoin and Ethereum, traders are asking whether BMNR is again sensing a shift under the surface. The stock is stabilizing right before earnings — the same timing as its July behavior — while the broader crypto market is trying to form a base.
This brings us to what BMNR’s own indicators are signaling.
Divergence Still Supports the Uptrend, but Volume Must Confirm the Breakout
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures price momentum. Between June 27 and November 17, BMNR made a higher low, while RSI made a lower low. That is hidden bullish divergence, which appears in assets that remain in long-term uptrends even during strong pullbacks.
But the real confirmation still rests with On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days to show who controls the market.
Here is what matters now:
OBV remains below a descending trend line, which has capped every attempt at recovery.
OBV is now curling upward as the result date approaches.
A break above this OBV trend line is the technical trigger that usually leads to large moves in BMNR.
There is also a long-term OBV divergence on the chart.
From September 5 to November 17, the BMNR price made a lower low, but the OBV made a higher low. This is often a sign that seller pressure is fading in the background, even if the price hasn’t reacted yet.
One more positive signal appears on the CMF. The Chaikin Money Flow tracks inflows and outflows using price and volume. CMF has now broken above its descending trend line, which means inflows are rising again right before the result date. This does not confirm a breakout on its own, but it strengthens the case that buyers are returning at the right time.
This aligns with Donald Dean’s NAV model.
$BMNR BitMine Immersion, 3.0% of ETH Supply – Updated Targets, New Net Asset Value (mNAV) Calculations
NAV Targets at 1.6x: $4,000 ETH = $71.10 BMNR $5,000 ETH = $88.06 BMNR $6,000 ETH = $105.02 BMNR
In the downtrend, near support from August. BMNR would need to get above $37… pic.twitter.com/AcPoHgIDS0
Dean uses a NAV multiple where BMNR’s value tracks ETH ownership and cash reserves.
He estimates the stock’s upside using ETH’s percentage moves. This means that if Ethereum rebounds 10%, BMNR’s fair value under Dean’s model moves well above the current range, placing the stock closer to its higher extensions. That’s close to $65, per the chart.
So the next move depends on two things: OBV breakout and Ethereum price direction. If both align near the earnings release, the BMNR price may once again outpace the crypto market.
The Federal Reserve’s newly released minutes from the October 28–29 meeting have thrown fresh uncertainty into the December policy outlook, sharpening market volatility across equities, bonds, and Bitcoin.
While the minutes reflect economic data only available at the time of the meeting, the language shift inside the document has become the latest flashpoint for analysts dissecting the Fed’s next move.
Fed Minutes Expose a Narrow Majority Against a December Rate Cut
The Fed described “many” officials as seeing a December rate cut as “likely not appropriate,” while “several” said a cut “could well be appropriate.”
In Fed-watcher parlance, the hierarchy matters. “some” > “several”, and “many” outweighs both. This indicates that a narrow majority opposed cutting rates in December at the time of the meeting.
💥BREAKING:
FOMC MINUTES:
– MANY SAW DECEMBER RATE CUT AS LIKELY NOT APPROPRIATE
Ahead of this release, markets had already de-risked, with the Bitcoin price slipping below $89,000 to a 7-month low. The sentiment spread across crypto stocks and TradFi indices.
Macro traders say the real story is the razor-thin nature of the Fed divide. The minutes indicate no firm consensus, suggesting December is shaping up to be one of the tightest policy calls since the Fed began its inflation fight.
Some officials emphasized still-elevated inflation risks; others pointed to cooling labor conditions and fading demand. With both sides arming themselves with recent post-meeting data, including softer CPI, stable jobless claims, and cooling retail activity, December could swing on the next two data prints.
For now, the market is recalibrating to a scenario where liquidity is tightening, policy uncertainty is rising, and Bitcoin sits in a structurally vulnerable zone until buyers regain initiative.
If the Fed chooses to hold in December, markets may need to brace for a longer-than-expected plateau and more volatility ahead.
OFFICIAL TRUMP has shown little movement in recent days, with price action flattening as uncertainty grows. The lack of volatility reflects cautious sentiment among holders, who are watching external developments closely.
That pressure is set to intensify after the US Senate approved the release of Epstein files, a decision likely to influence TRUMP’s short-term direction.
OFFICIAL TRUMP Could Bear The Brunt
Market sentiment is weakening as the Relative Strength Index slips below the neutral 50.0 level, signaling growing bearish momentum. A continued drop into the negative zone would confirm increasing downside pressure. With Bitcoin now trading near $90,000, overall market confidence has already eroded, creating a challenging backdrop for risk-sensitive tokens like TRUMP.
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TRUMP faces additional headwinds owing to the Epstein files discourse. The Senate approved a House-passed bill requiring the Justice Department to release documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. Donald Trump has opposed the release previously, and past images of him with Epstein may spark renewed speculation. This combination heightens uncertainty and could weigh heavily on the TRUMP price as investors reassess risk.
Macro momentum indicators confirm a deteriorating outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow has dropped to a five-month low, signaling aggressive capital outflows from TRUMP. The indicator weakened sharply over the past several days, revealing that investors are pulling liquidity and reducing exposure as concerns grow.
Heavy withdrawals indicate fading conviction among holders who fear further controversy and market instability. Sustained negative CMF readings typically point toward prolonged weakness, especially when paired with falling momentum indicators.
TRUMP trades at $7.06, holding just above the $6.89 support level that has stabilized the price for three weeks. The coin’s inability to generate upward traction increases the likelihood of a breakdown. Continued pressure could push TRUMP below this zone as sentiment worsens.
A drop under $6.89 would expose the price to deeper losses, potentially sending it toward $6.55 or $6.24. If fear surrounding the Epstein files intensifies, TRUMP could break below $6.00 for the first time in months and reach $5.86. Bearish sentiment and political uncertainty may accelerate this move.
However, if Donald Trump avoids controversy after the approval of the files’ release, OFFICIAL TRUMP may find room to recover. A bounce from $6.89 could lift the price to $7.35. A break above that level would open the path toward $8.00. This would invalidate the bearish thesis and restore short-term confidence.
In the past 60 minutes, over $112 million longs have been liquidated as traders de-risk in anticipation of the FOMC minutes.
Bitcoin slipped below the $90,000 psychological levels, blowing millions in long positions out of the water.
$115 Million Longs Wiped Out Amid FOMC Minutes Jitters
Data on Coinglass shows that over $112 million in long positions have been liquidated over the past hour. These positions were flushed out as the Bitcoin price dipped below the $90,000 psychological level, testing a seven-month low.
This drop comes barely an hour before the October FOMC minutes release, with sentiment already reflected on social media.
Amid the anticipation, US President Trump said Fed chair Jerome Powell is “grossly incompetent,” citing too high interest rates.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has also revealed that it will not publish the October Jobs report. This gap likely steps from the recently concluded US government shutdown, which saw authorities run basically blind.
“After the September jobs report (out Thursday), there won’t be another jobs report until after the Dec. 9-10 FOMC meeting BLS: The October jobs report is cancelled. The November report won’t land until December 16. Sept JOLTS is also cancelled. October JOLTS will be published December 9,” wrote Nick Timiraos.
Based on this gap in the October Jobs report, December Fed rate cut bets have dwindled, with nearly 70% anticipating policymakers will hold interest rates steady.
This is seen with ETF outflows from the likes of BlackRock, which the asset manager posting record negative flows of on Tuesday.
“BlackRock Dumps Record $523M in Bitcoin as BTC Slips Further in Bear Market. They sold $523M in Bitcoin, the largest single-day outflow IBIT has EVER recorded. Wall Street entered, profited, and exited. Bitcoiners got played hard,” analyst Jacob King remarked.
Even as the Bitcoin price continues to drop, some analysts say the downside potential remains very much alive, potentially as low as $70,000 in the near term, or worse.
Below $98,650, the next key Bitcoin $BTC levels are:
XRP price trades near $2.15 today after dropping over 18% since November 10. The token has spent the past month moving inside a bearish channel. And the latest structure now shows weakening volume, rising long-term selling, and the price sitting close to a key support.
If buyers fail to defend one level, the XRP price could slide into a deeper leg of its downtrend.
Falling Channel and Volume Breakdown Strengthen the Bearish Setup
XRP continues to move inside a descending channel that has guided every bounce and rejection for more than a month. This pattern is a bearish continuation structure, and the recent candles show that each recovery attempt is getting weaker.
This weakness is most visible in the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. OBV adds volume on green days and subtracts it on red days to show whether buying or selling pressure is dominating. Between November 4 and 9, OBV briefly moved above the descending trend line connecting its lower highs. The XRP price responded with a quick short-term bounce.
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But once OBV slipped back below the trend line on November 12, the tone changed. The indicator has stayed below that trend line since, showing that market-wide buying pressure has continued to weaken. This aligns perfectly with the price action: XRP began its 18.6% decline on November 10, the same window in which OBV started curling downward again.
The lack of volume strength means buyers are not stepping in with conviction. That sets the stage for the next metric.
Long-Term Holders Are Increasing Their Selling
Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change tracks how much long-term holder supply is entering or leaving exchanges and wallets. It is one of the clearest measures of long-term conviction.
Over the past few days, long-term holders have sharply increased their selling again after dipping to the lowest fortnightly level on November 16:
Nov 16: –63.57 million XRP
Nov 18: –94.50 million XRP
Now, that’s a 48.6% rise in long-term outflows in just two days.
This confirms that the pressure shown on OBV is not random noise. It comes at the same time that long-term holders are reducing their positions more aggressively. When long-term seller activity rises while volume weakens, it typically signals a market that has not found its bottom yet. And that view keeps every nearby support level at risk.
Together, OBV and Hodler Net Position Change point to the same idea: buyers are not absorbing the increased selling pressure.
XRP Price Levels That Matter Most
The XRP price now sits close to the most important support on the chart: $2.10. This level has acted as a reaction zone multiple times inside the falling channel. If the daily candle closes below $2.10, XRP could extend its move toward $1.77, the long-term channel floor.
On the upside, the level that must be reclaimed to invalidate this bearish setup is $2.41. Clearing $2.41 would show that buyers have regained strength and would open the path toward $2.58. Only a daily close above $2.58 would flip the short-term trend back to bullish.
Right now, the structure still leans negative. Volume is weakening. Long-term holders are selling faster. And the XRP price remains inside a falling channel. Unless XRP reclaims $2.41, all eyes stay on $2.10. This fragile floor decides whether XRP stabilizes or enters a deeper slide.
Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee and settle in. This week, Bitcoin’s movements have traders talking, analysts scratching their heads, and even some familiar voices hinting that not everything is as it seems. Amid dips, recoveries, and cryptic warnings, one question lingers: who—or what—might really be pulling the strings behind the scenes?
Crypto News of the Day: Behind Bitcoin’s Strength—A Cabal? Jim Cramer Thinks So
Jim Cramer has once again sparked a wave of speculation across Crypto Twitter and trading desks, after suggesting that unseen forces may be at work to keep Bitcoin elevated despite mounting macroeconomic pressure.
“Almost feels like a cabal is trying to keep Bitcoin above $90,000. I like Bitcoin, but I do not like any of the derivatives created to play it, game it, or mine it,” he stated.
The remark landed at a sensitive moment for the market. Bitcoin dipped below $90,000 earlier in the week before recovering, prompting traders to dissect Cramer’s choice of words.
His reference to a “cabal,” even if rhetorical, was enough to spark theories ranging from ETF market makers defending key levels to institutional buyers accumulating quietly as liquidity thins.
Cramer doubled down hours later with another pointed message: “Even after all of this destruction, we are not oversold!!!”
To many traders, this sounded less like caution and more like classic Cramer timing, historically notorious for aligning with market inflection points in the opposite direction.
That instantly fed the Inverse Cramer narrative: when Cramer turns bearish or warning-heavy, some traders look for a bottom instead.
However, analysts argue that the market’s recent behavior has far more to do with macroeconomic forces than memes.
Macro Forces, Not Memes: What’s Really Driving Bitcoin’s Recent Volatility
According to QCP, Bitcoin’s brief break below the $90,000 threshold reflected the asset’s growing sensitivity to shifts in liquidity and interest-rate expectations.
“Markets have sharply repriced Fed expectations, cutting December rate cut odds from ‘near certain’ to ‘even,’” QCP noted, emphasizing how such macro adjustments disproportionately affect duration-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, equities have remained relatively resilient thanks to blockbuster earnings from AI-driven hyperscalers. Big Tech’s strength has left crypto trailing behind, amplifying volatility as liquidity thins.
Now that the US government has reopened and economic data releases are resuming, traders are bracing for a critical week.
Labor-market indicators and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, updated with new vacancy metrics, are expected to shape market expectations as we enter 2026.
These data points will help define whether the Fed leans toward caution on inflation or acknowledges signs of cooling.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent reminder that a December cut is “not guaranteed” has reinforced the cautious mood.
For Bitcoin, the question is whether recent turbulence represents a standard positioning shakeout or the opening act of broader risk-off dynamics.
Cramer’s “cabal” comment may have dominated the headlines, but the real driver may still be the macro tide, and whether it turns against crypto or slowly back in its favor.
Crypto exchange Kraken has taken a concrete step toward going public by submitting a confidential draft registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in advance of a planned initial public offering (IPO).
It completes Ark Invest’s earlier prediction that US President Trump’s administration would open a gateway for firms like Circle to go public.
Kraken Takes First Step Toward Public Listing
According to an official press release, the San Francisco–based crypto exchange has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S‑1 with the US SEC for a proposed initial public offering of its common stock.
While the number of shares and pricing have not yet been determined, the IPO is expected to proceed once the SEC completes its review, subject to market conditions.
The move marks a significant step in Kraken’s growth and reflects the increasing intersection of crypto and traditional finance, as investors await further details on the exchange’s public debut.
It comes only months after Circle’s public listing, with the latest development effectively marking the fruiting of Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest’s prediction.
In late 2024, Ark Invest stated that it viewed the then-prospective Trump administration as favorable for crypto, potentially opening up IPO opportunities for firms like Circle and Kraken. As BeInCrypto reported, Ark Invest cited pro-crypto policies and SEC reforms easing regulatory constraints for the sector.
“Among the possibilities are…the re-opening of the initial public offering (IPO) window for late-stage digital asset companies like Circle and Kraken…,” a paragraph in the newsletter read.
Consequently, this establishes a precedent demonstrating that crypto firms can transition to becoming publicly traded companies in the country.
In July, Kraken revealed plans to raise $500 million at a $15 billion valuation in its planned IPO. The plan succeeded in September, with the trading platform expanding into TradFi with xStocks platform and NinjaTrader acquisition. Hours ago, Kraken CEO Arjun Sethi revealed that the exchange had raised $800 million.
Once Kraken officially goes public, its stock, potentially ‘KRAK’ would join Coinbase’s COIN in the open market, which is already listed on stock exchanges.
SACHI, the next-generation Web3 immersive gaming universe built on Unreal Engine 5, has entered a dynamic partnership to expand the boundaries of virtual worldbuilding with TokaCity, a leading innovator in iGaming and blockchain-integrated casino content.
The SACHI-TokaCity collaboration plans to build the infrastructure for players to engage in an interconnected digital universe where entertainment, technology, and digital ownership leveraging SACHI’s dynamic, real-time universe and TokaCity’s creative footprint in social-casino and skill-based gaming.
Under the partnership, TokaCity’s established catalogue of casino and skill-based titles will be integrated into the SACHIverse, meaning players will be able to access premium casino experiences within SACHI’s visually rich, browser-based, instantly-accessible world – no downloads or high-end hardware required.
“TokaCity has been part of our journey from day one,” said Jonas Martisius, CEO of SACHI. “They bring decades of iGaming experience, proven performance, and an instinct for what players love. Now, we’re delighted to see them feature prominently in our future, where we’re building digital universes, integrating games, influencing social play, and reimagining the future of digital entertainment together.”
SACHI’s Ecosystem Expands with Entertainment Partner
SACHI entered its partnership with TokaCity with a vision to merge its immersive blockchain-based gaming ecosystem with a market-renowned provider of content infrastructure and operational expertise.
The long-term plan of the relationship is to tap the expertise of a reliable partner in SACHI’s vision to build, interoperable worlds that reward exploration and community participation.
SACHI also expands its ecosystem, adding to a formidable complementary cast that already draws on collaborations with Microsoft Azure, Aethir, and Solana-based projects ahead of its upcoming BETA Game Launch.
The integration of TokaCity into the SACHI ecosystem marks a major step toward creating a connected entertainment universe – one that combines the thrill of iGaming with cloud-accessibility and blockchain-driven ownership.
About SACHI
SACHI is an immersive Web3 gaming universe combining AAA gameplay, social interaction, and blockchain economies. Built on Unreal Engine 5 and powered by pixel streaming, SACHI delivers console-quality gaming instantly on any device – uniting play, culture, and community in a single world of entertainment and innovation.
About TokaCity
TokaCity is a visionary iGaming company redefining social casino experiences through immersive, blockchain-powered content. With deep expertise in gaming operations and virtual world design, TokaCity is shaping the next generation of connected entertainment where gameplay, creativity, and community thrive together.
TokaCity and SACHI are building the future of iGaming, immersive, social, and instantly accessible.
Be part of it, register now for the Game Launch countdown:https://sachi.game/
Follow SACHI’s journey:
Visit our website: https://sachi.game/
Follow the movement on X (formerly Twitter): @join_sachi
Prediction markets, once niche experiments, have evolved into significant financial instruments. These platforms, where participants trade on the outcomes of future events, have attracted significant attention due to their demonstrated ability to be more accurate than traditional polls and commentators, particularly concerning critical political and economic results. Their rise is further fueled by the desire for individuals to leverage their knowledge for profit and a broader cultural obsession with real-time data and future outcomes, leading to hundreds of millions, and sometimes billions, of dollars flowing through these markets weekly.
The industry’s success has validated a multi-billion dollar demand. The current environment is primarily shaped by a duopoly, Kalshi and Polymarket. These two platforms, while seemingly in direct competition, represent two different approaches to the same market. Kalshi is positioned as a regulated exchange, while Polymarket is the leading decentralized, crypto-native marketplace. A new contender, Rain, has recently emerged, built with a distinctly different, permissionless architecture aimed at addressing the structural limitations of the incumbents.
This comparison examines these three notable platforms, Kalshi, Polymarket, and Rain, focusing on four core areas: scalability and liquidity, outcome resolution and trust, user experience and accessibility, and the fundamental tension between decentralization and centralization.
The Central Constraint: Market Creation Liquidity
While the prediction market industry often focuses on metrics like trading volume and active users, the true barrier to massive growth is a structural bottleneck known as “Market-Creation Liquidity”. This refers to the speed, cost, and accessibility for any user to create a new, tradable market. The current dominant models Kalshi and Polymarket operate under a “publisher” model, acting as gatekeepers, which limits their ability to fully scale.
Kalshi: The Regulatory Bottleneck
Kalshi’s market position is defined by its compliance-first approach. As a centralized, US-based platform, it is fully regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. This regulatory clarity grants it access to traditional financial institutions, institutional hedgers, and fiat-based retail users who prioritize certainty.
However, this regulatory framework imposes a “Regulatory Bottleneck”. The process for listing new market types is a protracted legal function, not merely an engineering one, because its model is fundamentally permissioned by regulators. A notable example is the CFTC’s initial denial of Kalshi’s proposal for election-based contracts, deeming them “gaming,” which led to an expensive lawsuit against its own regulator to eventually list the markets.
As a result, Kalshi is structurally limited to listing a small number of high-volume, mass-market events, the “head” of the demand curve. Its focus is restricted to markets lucrative enough to justify the immense legal and lobbying costs, such as major sports or economic data. The platform’s growth is demonstrably throttled by the pace of the court system, as it navigates ongoing legal battles over its sports contracts in various U.S. states. Its Market-Creation Liquidity is near-zero, as it is permissioned by law.
Polymarket: The Human Bottleneck
Polymarket, representing the decentralized ethos, is the world’s largest crypto-native prediction market. It is known for on-chain transparency, self-custody of funds, and generating massive volume on political, cultural, and crypto events.
Despite its decentralized branding and on-chain mechanics, Polymarket is architecturally a “permissioned service,” not a fully permissionless protocol. Its official documentation confirms that markets are created by its internal team with community input, revealing a “Human Bottleneck”. Its success hinges on its editorial judgment, operating more like a media company.
This model is inherently unscalable; scaling the number of markets requires a proportionate scaling of its curation staff. While impressive volume (38,270 new markets in a peak month) is generated by a centralized team, it is a statistical fraction of the potential of a truly user-generated, permissionless system. Polymarket’s Market-Creation Liquidity is considered low and curated, as it is permissioned by a team.
Rain: The Permissionless Platform Approach
Rain, built with scalability in mind via an automated market-maker (AMM) design and cross-chain primitives , is a newer protocol designed explicitly to solve the “Market-Creation Liquidity Crisis”. Its architecture represents a shift from a “publisher” to a true “platform” model.
Rain’s defining feature is the permissionless primitive: any user can create a market. This aims to capture the “Long Tail of Probability,” a concept where the aggregate value of millions of niche, low-demand products rivals the value of a few “hits”. While incumbents battle over the “head” (e.g., presidential elections, major sports), Rain targets the near-infinite universe of niche events that matter to specific communities or businesses, such as project deadlines, GitHub issues, or internal DAO votes. The platform’s value is intended to be derived from the aggregate trading volume of millions of niche markets that are impossible to create on incumbent platforms.
This architecture also introduces two distinct market types: Public Markets (visible to all) and Private Markets (requiring a code to enter). This Private Market capability is positioned as a new product category, transforming prediction markets into an active, corporate coordination tool. For example, a CEO could create a private, financially-backed incentive market for an engineering team’s product shipment deadline, a B2B market that Kalshi and Polymarket are unable to service.
Trust and Outcome Resolution
Outcome resolution, the mechanism for determining a real-world result, is the most critical trust variable for prediction markets.
Centralized Adjudication (Kalshi)
Kalshi relies on traditional, centralized adjudication, consistent with exchange rules and regulatory oversight. Its internal team, bound by CFTC rules, acts as the “centralized arbiter” or oracle. This approach offers clarity, speed, and legal recourse for users.
The primary risk, however, is a catastrophic “single point of failure”. Power over the final say rests with the operator and its regulatory counterparties. This is not merely a technical risk but an existential political one, as the platform’s authority is delegated by the CFTC and could be revoked by a new political administration or court ruling, potentially freezing capital. For institutional users, this trade-off is often acceptable, but for others, it raises fears of centralized entity abuse. Furthermore, this human-in-the-loop model reinforces the platform’s constraints and is unscalable for the “long tail” of markets.
Decentralized Oracles (Polymarket)
Polymarket leverages blockchain transparency, decentralized oracles, and dispute protocols to make outcomes auditable. Its core resolution mechanism relies on UMA’s Optimistic Oracle, a “trust-by-default” model where an answer is proposed and assumed true unless disputed. This system reduces opacity but requires robust oracle design and has been vulnerable to manipulation in low-liquidity scenarios.
A high-profile incident exposed a vulnerability where an attacker with a large holding of $UMA tokens successfully manipulated a governance vote to force a factually incorrect outcome. This incident revealed a conflict of interest where token-holders (voters) can also be market participants (bettors). In response, UMA’s transition to a new model involves abandoning permissionless resolution and creating a “whitelist of experienced proposers,” effectively re-centralizing the resolution mechanism. This move trades the governance attack vector for a new centralization and collusion risk.
The AI-Augmented Hybrid (Rain)
Rain’s model aims to marry transparency with speed by removing human gatekeepers. Its pitch for fair outcomes leverages AI for added transparency while maintaining decentralization. The system concentrates on automated, on-chain resolution augmented by algorithmic oracles, a consensus system of several AI models.
Rain’s multi-stage hybrid system is designed for both scalability and security.
Initial Resolution. For Public Markets, the creator or the AI Oracle can be chosen as the initial resolver. The AI Oracle is designed for low-cost, impartial, data-driven results. For Private Markets, the creator resolves the outcome (e.g., the CEO resolving their internal company market).
Dispute Mechanism. Following the initial resolution, a “Dispute Window” opens. Any participant can file a dispute by posting collateral, an economic stake that prevents abuse. An AI judge then investigates the dispute and can change the resolution. If the losing side escalates the dispute further, it is checked by “decentralized human oracles” for a final, binding decision.
This architecture provides a scalable, automated way to resolve the millions of public “long tail” markets via the AI oracle. The dispute system acts as an economically-incentivized backstop, similar to an optimistic system but with a robust, decentralized human backstop, rather than a token-vote that has been shown to be gameable.
Conclusion
The prediction market industry has been validated by the “Old Guard” of Kalshi and Polymarket, proving a multi-billion dollar demand while simultaneously exposing their structural ceilings. They function as services and publishers, constrained by legal and human gatekeepers, respectively. The 1000x growth opportunity in this sector will not be found in fighting over the same few “head” markets. Instead, it will be found in the permissionless innovation of the “Long Tail of Probability”. The real value lies not in forecasting the one presidential election, but in forecasting the ten million project deadlines, supply chain arrivals, and community votes that form the undiscovered “long tail” of our economy. Capturing this future requires a protocol built on three pillars: permissionless creation, scalable resolution via mechanisms like AI-augmented oracles, and long-tail-native features such as private markets. The evolution of this space marks a transition beyond being just another trading venue, it is the platformization of prediction itself.
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