MicroStrategy’s market premium over its Bitcoin holdings has narrowed to near parity, raising questions about the future of Michael Saylor’s levered Bitcoin model. 

The latest disclosures show the company holding 649,870 BTC at a cost of roughly $48.4 billion, yet its equity no longer trades at the high multiples that powered earlier expansion.

A Collapsing Premium and Rising Capital Pressures

The company’s mNAV fell below 1x in November. mNAV, or market-to-net-asset value, measures how much investors are willing to pay above (or below) the value of Strategy’s underlying Bitcoin. 

It matters because Strategy’s entire accumulation strategy depends on issuing equity at a premium—allowing each new share sold to increase Bitcoin per share for existing holders.

This sharp mNAV reversal follows a broader market downturn. Bitcoin fell more than 30% from its October peak, dropping below $90,000. 

Meanwhile, Strategy shares fell faster, reflecting concerns about the company’s reliance on capital markets and rising preferred stock costs.

Strategy’s capital structure has become a central issue. The firm holds only $54 million in cash and owes more than $640 million in annual preferred dividends. 

The company’s software business remains cash-flow negative for 2025, widening the gap between obligations and internal liquidity.

As a result, Strategy has leaned on capital markets. It raised about $20 billion in the first nine months of 2025 across convertibles, preferred stock, and at-the-market equity. 

That funding kept its Bitcoin accumulation going while servicing older instruments with high and rising coupons.

However, the mechanics that once made this model accretive have weakened. When Strategy traded at large premiums to net asset value, issuing shares increased Bitcoin per share for holders. 

That effect disappears when the premium collapses. Issuing stock near NAV risks dilution rather than accretion.

Pressure increased as the cost of capital climbed. The company’s STRC preferred shares raised their dividend from 9% in July to 10.5% in November to maintain par value. 

New preferred offerings carry coupons above 10%, with penalty rates up to 18% if unpaid. These terms increase the annual burden and reinforce investor concerns about sustainability.

Market Liquidity, MSCI Risks, and the Future of the Premium

Market confidence further deteriorated after the October 10 crash. Bitcoin dropped about 17% as leveraged liquidations exceeded $19 billion. Order-book depth collapsed across exchanges, highlighting the fragility of liquidity during stress. 

For a holder of more than 3% of Bitcoin’s supply, this episode amplified fears about potential forced selling.

The index-inclusion threat compounds the problem. MSCI is consulting on excluding companies with more than 50% of assets in digital currencies from its indices. 

THE $48 BILLION MATH ERROR

Strategy Inc. just disclosed something extraordinary. They own 649,870 Bitcoin. That is 3.26 percent of every Bitcoin that will ever exist. Total cost: $48.37 billion.

They also disclosed the numbers that prove this cannot survive the next 90 days.… pic.twitter.com/SIEI6njNyB

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) November 23, 2025

Strategy sits near 77% Bitcoin by asset share. JPMorgan estimates such an exclusion could trigger around $2.8 billion in passive outflows, with up to $8.8 billion possible if other index providers follow.

If indices proceed with exclusion in February 2026, MicroStrategy’s mNAV could compress further. Lower premiums reduce the viability of equity issuance, which Strategy has used to manage its obligations and continue accumulation. 

A persistent discount would complicate refinancing and weaken the company’s ability to defend its capital structure.

very important week coming up for $MSTR (and markets overall). @MicroStrategy is currently trading below NAV (ie its market cap is lower than the value of its $BTC holdings).

no treasury company has ever traded below its NAV for an extended period of time.

the model only…

— Dom Kwok | EasyA (@dom_kwok) November 16, 2025

Strategy maintains that its balance sheet offers long-term strength. It recently claimed “71 years” of dividend coverage based on the current market value of its Bitcoin. 

However, that calculation assumes frictionless sales, no price impact, and no tax obligations. The October crash demonstrated how quickly liquidity can evaporate under stress.

Will MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Premium Return?

The narrowing mNAV reflects a market reassessment of leverage, liquidity, and risk. Investors appear less willing to pay a premium for exposure they can now access through spot Bitcoin ETFs without corporate debt and preferred stock layers.

The premium may return if Bitcoin rallies sharply or if index providers soften their stance. Yet the structural pressures remain. 

Rising dividend obligations, negative operating cash flow, and a weakening equity premium leave Strategy more exposed than before. 

Until those pressures ease, the market’s message is clear. Investors are no longer paying extra for the Strategy model, and the days of easy accretive issuance appear to be over. 

Whether the premium returns now depends on Bitcoin strength, index decisions, and Strategy’s ability to navigate its most difficult period yet.

The post Is MicroStrategy’s mNAV Premium Gone for Good? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Monad’s MON token continues to rally after its long-anticipated mainnet launch, defying the steep post-airdrop declines that dominated 2025. The token has climbed more than 70% above its Coinbase sale price while the broader crypto market trades under heavy pressure. 

Data from on-chain activity, exchange flows, and token distribution offer a clear explanation for the outperformance — and reveal how long the rally may realistically last.

Strong Day-One Performance Sets the Tone

Monad launched its public mainnet and MON token on November 24 with roughly 10–11% of its 100 billion supply unlocked. 

The airdrop and public sale provided liquidity, while more than 50.6% of the supply (team, investors, treasury) remained locked through 2029.

The launch attracted immediate attention. MON dipped about 15% in early trading, hitting $0.02 as airdrop sellers exited. 

Buyers quickly absorbed the flow. Within 24 hours, MON traded near $0.03–0.035, and now sits around $0.04, more than 50–70% above its $0.025 public sale price.

This strength stands out in a market where Bitcoin has dropped below $90,000 and total crypto market capitalization has fallen by more than a trillion dollars since October.

Airdrop and Token Sale Created a Stable Holder Base

Monad distributed roughly 4.73 billion MON in airdrops to 289,000 eligible accounts, with 3.33 billion ultimately claimed. The design targeted DeFi power-users, NFT traders, testnet contributors, and DAO participants rather than quest farmers.

The Coinbase token sale, which raised $269 million from about 85,820 participants, added a second cohort of committed holders. These buyers anchored around the $0.025 sale price and proved less eager to dump at launch.

Because insiders remain locked, early sellers were mostly airdrop recipients. This dynamic helped prevent the heavy cascades that crushed many 2025 airdrops.

my monad airdrop is worth $14,000?

what the actual fuck

hello wtf pic.twitter.com/zHkEdQQsIT

— Loshmi (@loshmi) November 25, 2025

Heavy Exchange Coverage Shielded MON From Volatility

MON was listed across major exchanges on day one, including Coinbase, Upbit, Bithumb, Kraken, Bybit, Bitget, Crypto.com, and MEXC. Derivatives opened on multiple venues, giving traders hedging options.

Deep order books absorbed airdrop selling. Market makers tightened spreads, and cross-venue liquidity reduced fragmentation. Traders could short, long, or hedge without flooding spot markets.

This broad coverage sharply contrasts with earlier L1 launches that relied on thin liquidity pools and fragmented markets, often triggering immediate 50–80% crashes.

Huge respect to @monad for not paying the Binance cartel listing fee.

Probably not a coincidence that the price is going up.

No serious project should waste millions of dollars for nothing (study Binance TGEs this cycle).

gMonad

— Aylo (@alpha_pls) November 25, 2025

On-Chain Activity Surprised the Market

Monad’s first 24 hours delivered rare on-chain traction for a new L1. Nansen recorded:

• 3.7 million transactions
  
• 153,000 active addresses
  
• 18,000 contract deployments

These figures exceed what many blockchains achieve in their first year. They show early real usage from bots, arbitrageurs, developers, and liquidity programs.

.@Monad went live less than 24 hours ago

It already cleared:
– 3.7M daily txns
– 153K active addresses
– 18K contract deployments

That’s higher day-one activity than most chains in their first year

🧵 👇 pic.twitter.com/ggUwfOyjx7

— Nansen 🧭 (@nansen_ai) November 25, 2025

TVL reached ~$90 million, with Uniswap, Gearbox, Curve, and native dApps launching within hours. DEX volume crossed $70 million, driven by concentrated liquidity pools and farming incentives.

This early activity reinforced the perception that Monad launched as a functioning ecosystem, not as a speculative token awaiting future development.

Monad’s Rare Relative-Strength Play in a Weak Market

MON’s rally stands out because the rest of the market remains fragile. Bitcoin’s slide under $90,000 triggered retail outflows and pushed sentiment indicators into extreme fear.

Traders rotated into MON due to its relative strength. New tokens with credible metrics often attract momentum capital when major assets struggle.

This reflexive flow — strength attracting more capital — added fuel to the rally.

Arthur Hayes Goes All-In

Arthur Hayes weighed in with a sarcastic comment that captured the market mood. 

Just what this bull market needs another low float , high FDV useless L1. But obvi I aped. It’s a bull market bitches!$MON to $10 pic.twitter.com/UMSDWWmp5a

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 25, 2025

He highlighted MON’s low float and high FDV (fully diluted valuation). With only around 10% of supply circulating and FDV near $3–4 billion, MON fits the low-float pattern that dominates early-stage price action.

Yet Hayes admitted he bought anyway. His remark reflects how traders treat early L1 tokens: fundamentally risky, but attractive for short-term speculation.

How Long Can the Monad Rally Last?

The current data and patterns point to three time horizons that shape MON’s outlook.

Short Term: Rally Can Sustain

Monad has absorbed its largest early unlocks. Liquidity remains deep, and on-chain usage is rising. Incentive programs are launching, and trading flows remain strong. 

Under these conditions, MON can maintain upward momentum for days or weeks.

Medium Term: Unlock Pressure Builds

Over the next several months, the circulating supply will rise as vesting tranches unlock. Even disciplined insider distribution adds structural sell pressure. 

Activity may normalize after early incentives fade. If TVL flattens or starts slipping, the narrative could shift.

Longer Term: Fundamental Execution Matters

MON’s FDV places high expectations on the chain. Sustained growth in TVL, real applications, and developer traction will determine long-run resilience. 

Without continued expansion, valuation compression becomes likely as supply expands.

In 2017 $ADA went from $3B → $30B in less than a month$MON just launched at $3B

Imagine the smell 💜 @monad pic.twitter.com/9LEg9WXNW9

— zac.eth 🧙🏻‍♂️♦️ (@zacxbt) November 24, 2025

Monad Token Outlook

Monad’s rally stems from a rare combination of strong distribution design, deep exchange liquidity, high early usage, and standout performance during a weak market. 

This alignment makes MON one of the few 2025 airdrop tokens to defy the typical post-launch collapse.

The rally can continue in the short term as long as on-chain demand holds and liquidity remains supportive. However, the token’s high FDV and long vesting schedule introduce clear medium-term risks.

For now, MON remains a high-momentum asset driven by early fundamentals and speculative flows. 

However, the durability of that momentum will depend on whether Monad converts its powerful first 48 hours into sustained ecosystem growth.

The post Monad Is Still Rallying, But How Long Will It Last? appeared first on BeInCrypto.