XRP spot ETFs recorded $643.92 million in cumulative net inflows during their first month of trading, according to SoSoValue data. The products also reached $676.49 million in total net assets, capturing 0.50% of XRP’s market capitalization.
Daily inflows remained positive for most of the month. The strongest sessions included $243.05 million on November 14 and $164.04 million on November 24.
The ETFs generated a total value of $38.12 million in trading on November 26 alone. Trading volumes earlier in the month were higher, coinciding with large inflow spikes.
Meanwhile, other major asset managers are looking to enter the XRP ETF race. 21Shares is expected to launch its spot ETF on Monday as WisdomTree’s application remains under review.
Early Signs Point to Sustained Institutional Demand
ETF inflows increased on nine of the past ten sessions. The most recent daily total showed $21.81 millionentering XRP ETFs on November 26.
This inflow streak suggests institutions are still building exposure. It also reduces liquid supply on exchanges, as ETF custodians move XRP into regulated storage.
XRP ETFs Daily Inflows. Source: SoSoValue
Franklin Templeton disclosed 32.04 million XRP held in its ETF by November 25, signalling continued accumulation.
This steady inflow pattern in the first month is positive for new crypto ETFs and reflects improved regulatory clarity for XRP products.
Meanwhile, XRP wasn’t the only altcoin to receive an ETF greenlight over the past week. Dogecoin, HBAR, and Litecoin spot ETFs also started trading earlier this month.
However, these funds did not receive any notable interest from institutional investors. Bitwise and Grayscale’s DogeCoin ETF only attracted around $2 million in inflows in their first 48 hours of trading.
Bitcoin may be showing its first signs of demand recovery after a bruising month. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index (CBPI) — a measure tracking whether US investors pay more or less for BTC on Coinbase vs. global exchanges — turned positive today for the first time in weeks.
The shift comes just as silver surged to a new all-time high above $55/oz, signalling renewed appetite for hard-asset exposure across markets.
What the Coinbase Premium Turning Green Actually Means
The premium had spent almost the entire month of November in negative territory, reflecting softer US demand, ETF outflows, and weakened liquidity.
Now, the green print suggests that US spot buyers are finally paying a slight premium again, a sign that domestic demand is stabilising.
In simple terms, the Coinbase Premium Index compares BTC price on Coinbase (USD market) with its price on major global exchanges (USDT markets like Binance).
Positive premium → US investors buying aggressively
Negative premium → Lower US demand or stronger international flow
Neutral → Balanced global demand
Today’s shift into positive territory indicates that US spot demand has improved for the first time all month, even while broader sentiment still sits in extreme fear.
This matters because the US market has historically led BTC price inflection points — particularly during liquidity transitions or macro pivots.
Silver hitting an all-time high is notable on its own. But its timing alongside a newly positive Coinbase Premium adds an interesting behavioural layer.
Historically, BTC–Silver correlation is low and unstable. Long-term correlation usually sits near 0 to +0.3. It spikes only during major macro fear episodes, and collapses when crypto-specific factors dominate.
Right now, BTC and Silver are clearly decoupled. However, this decoupling highlights something important
When silver rallies strongly while Bitcoin stops falling, it often marks the end of fear-driven selling.
The weakening US labour market is emerging as a major risk variable for crypto heading into December and early 2026. Rising layoffs, slowing hiring, and deteriorating consumer confidence have intensified expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
The shift could influence Bitcoin and Ethereum more sharply than equities due to fragile liquidity conditions across digital assets.
Labour-Market Stress Increases Pressure on the Fed
Layoff announcements surged in October to their highest level since 2003. Several large employers cut jobs or froze hiring, reflecting tariff costs, AI restructuring, and post-shutdown uncertainty.
Consumer confidence also fell in November as job insecurity increased.
Alternative data shows US layoffs are surging:
Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge jumped +70,609 MoM in October, to 154,559, the highest in at least 2 years.
Monthly job cuts have now exceeded 100,000 for the 5th time this year.
Despite these pressures, weekly jobless claims remain low. Markets interpret this mixed picture as a sign that the economy is softening but not collapsing.
As a result, traders now expect a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting. Futures markets price a significant easing for 2026.
A December cut would mark a sharp pivot from the Fed’s earlier “higher for longer” stance. It would also signal that the central bank is responding to labour-market weakness before broader damage spreads.
Fed Rate Cut Probability For December. Source: CME FedWatch
Crypto Markets Are Highly Sensitive to Liquidity Signals
Tom Lee described the market as “limping” for six weeks due to damaged liquidity capacity.
These conditions increase the impact of macro shifts. When liquidity is thin, changes in interest-rate expectations typically move crypto faster than equities.
This dynamic was clear during November, when ETF outflows and selling pressure pushed Bitcoin down nearly 30% from its October peak.
On-chain metrics now show signs of stabilisation. The 90-day Taker CVD has moved from persistent selling to neutral, indicating seller exhaustion.
At the same time, users are borrowing against Bitcoin rather than selling it, which reduces immediate supply pressure but increases latent liquidation risk.
December Rally Is Possible, but Not Guaranteed
A December rate cut would reduce real yields and inject liquidity into risk assets. Bitcoin historically rallies during such conditions, especially after deep drawdowns.
Several metrics already point to improving momentum. Fear and Greed Index readings lifted from 11 to 22. Average crypto RSI rose toward 60 after touching oversold levels earlier in the month. MACD also turned positive.
🔴Record layoffs in the US
US companies cut 153,000 jobs in October, 175% more than a year ago. That makes October the worst in 20 years and the rate the highest for the fourth quarter since 2008🗓
However, ETF flow data remains uncertain. November saw heavy outflows, though recent days show tentative inflows.
If ETF demand returns, thin liquidity could amplify upside moves. If outflows resume, the market could revisit recent lows.
Macro signals will therefore dominate crypto into year-end. A dovish Fed stance may trigger a rally similar to 2023.
A hawkish tone could undermine the current recovery and reinforce the bearish trend seen in November.
Binance Bitcoin & Ethereum Exchange Inflow Value Is Structurally Elevated
“This often aligns with phases of rotation rather than pure accumulation. Large players move size onto the exchange, giving the market more room for distribution.” – By @TeddyVisionpic.twitter.com/wnpOWkyhPL
Even if crypto rallies in December, January remains uncertain. The combined October–November employment report arrives on December 16. The release may confirm deeper labour stress not yet captured in weekly data.
If layoffs accelerate into January, risk assets may weaken. Markets could interpret labour deterioration as a sign of recession.
In that scenario, rate cuts may not offset broad risk aversion. Bitcoin often reacts first in such conditions due to its liquidity profile.
Alternatively, if the report shows moderate softness with stable wage growth, markets may price a controlled slowdown.
This would support a continuation of any December rally into early 2026. In both cases, liquidity conditions will govern the scale of price swings.
With momentum improving and liquidity still thin, the market remains primed for a significant move. The direction will be set by how the Federal Reserve responds to growing labour-market pressure and how investors interpret the broader economic signal in the weeks ahead.
Login
