Crypto markets sold off sharply after Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surged to its highest level since 2008. The move triggered a wave of global de-risking and one of the largest liquidation events in weeks.

The move erased billions of dollars in digital-asset value, highlighting just how exposed crypto remains to macroeconomic liquidity shifts far outside its own ecosystem.

Japan’s Yield Spike: The Yen Carry Trade Unwinds and Crypto Feels It First

The total crypto market cap declined by approximately 5% over the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices falling by more than 5%.

According to Coinglass, more than 217,000 traders were liquidated during the downturn, resulting in a loss of almost $640 million in positions.

This illustrates how quickly leverage can evaporate when global rates move violently.

The catalyst came from Tokyo, where the 10-year Japanese government bond yield spiked to 1.84%, a level not seen since April 2008.

BREAKING: Japan's 10Y Government Bond Yield surges to 1.84%, its highest level since April 2008.

This chart is concerning to say the least. pic.twitter.com/fBkMMyBnqy

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 1, 2025

The prevailing sentiment is that the yield breakout is more than just a technical move. It signals that the decades-long yen carry trade may finally be unwinding.

For nearly 30 years, Japan’s near-zero interest rates allowed investors to borrow cheaply in yen and deploy capital into higher-yielding assets abroad. Such avenues include:

• US Treasuries
• European bonds
• Risk assets like equities and crypto.

Rising yields in Japan threaten to reverse this flow, pulling capital back home and tightening liquidity globally.

“For 30 years, the Yen Carry Trade subsidized global arrogance — zero rates… free leverage… fake growth… entire economies built on borrowed time and borrowed money. Now Japan has reversed the switch. Rates climbed. Yen strengthened. And the world’s favourite ATM just turned into a debt-collector,” wrote data scientist ViPiN on X (Twitter).

When Japanese yields rise, global liquidity contracts, leading to a repricing across the market. This likely explains why Silver (XAG) has not yet experienced its Supercycle, and Bitcoin is dealing with late-cycle volatility.

“Japan is draining liquidity, Bitcoin is absorbing the shock, and Silver is preparing for the repricing of a lifetime,” stated one analyst in a post.

Crypto’s Sell-Off Isn’t Local, It’s a Macro Liquidity Crunch

Shanaka Anslem, an ideologist and popular user on X (Twitter), described the JGB breakout as “the chart that should terrify every portfolio manager.

THE CHART THAT SHOULD TERRIFY EVERY PORTFOLIO MANAGER ON EARTH

Japan’s 10 Year Government Bond Yield just hit 1.84%.

The highest since April 2008.

Up 11.19% in a single session.

You need to understand what this means.

For three decades, Japan was the anchor. Zero rates.… https://t.co/1mpX0HuPdp

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) December 1, 2025

The strategist, who has reportedly witnessed infrastructural breakdowns, currency shocks, and state-level crises, cited:

• Inflation above 3%,
• Higher wage growth, and
• A Bank of Japan that is increasingly losing its ability to suppress yields.

These forces are pushing Japan into a structural shift away from the ultra-loose monetary regime that defined global markets for decades.

“When Japan raises rates, it sucks liquidity out of the global system. The “fuel” that powered the stock market rally is being drained. We can expect volatility in high-growth stocks as this “cheap money” era ends,” added another investor in a post.

The timing of the move is especially significant. The Federal Reserve has just ended its quantitative tightening program, the US faces record Treasury issuance, and interest payments on US debt have crossed the $1 trillion annual mark.

Meanwhile, China, historically one of the largest foreign buyers of US Treasuries, has slowed its accumulation. With Japan now under pressure to repatriate capital, two of America’s most important external funding sources are simultaneously stepping back.

“When the world’s creditor nations stop funding the world’s debtor nations at artificially suppressed rates, the entire post-2008 financial architecture must reprice. Every duration bet. Every leveraged position. Every assumption about perpetually falling rates. This is not a Japanese story. This is the global story. The 30-year bond bull market ended. Most just have not realized it yet,” Shanaka articulated.

Crypto, as one of the highest-beta corners of global markets, tends to react first when liquidity tightens. The scale of the liquidations suggests that leveraged traders were caught offside by the bond volatility, forcing rapid position unwinds across major assets.

Rather than a crypto-specific meltdown, the sell-off reflects a broad revaluation of duration, leverage, and risk as global bond markets reset.

Therefore, traders should probably watch Japan’s bond market as closely as they watch Bitcoin charts. If JGB yields continue to rise, it could tighten global liquidity through the end of the year.

The post Japan’s Bond Shock Slams Crypto: $640 Million Liquidated as 10-Year JGB Hits 17-Year High appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The first week of December 2025 features critical US economic events that will influence monetary policy expectations and Bitcoin’s direction, as traders prepare for potential Federal Reserve (Fed) actions.

Bitcoin investors face a pivotal week as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on December 1, coinciding with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT). With odds of a rate cut in December now at 86%, significant volatility is expected across risk assets.

Powell’s Speech and End of QT

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to address markets on Monday, December 1, at 8:00 pm ET. This date marks not just his highly anticipated speech but also the official end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program, an important policy shift announced by the FOMC in October.

“The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1,” read an excerpt in the Fed’s October 29 statement.

This decision reflects the presence of ample reserves in the banking system. Powell’s remarks come amid speculation about possible changes in Fed leadership, introducing another layer of market uncertainty.

🚨 BREAKING:

JEROME POWELL WILL GIVE A SPEECH ON DECEMBER 1ST AND QT ENDS THE SAME DAY.

RATE CUT ODDS FOR DECEMBER HAVE NOW SURGED TO 86%.

I WILL KEEP YOU UPDATED ON THE OUTCOME, NOTIS ON.

HUGE VOLATILITY AHEAD. pic.twitter.com/MV7UhJWUWi

— NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) November 30, 2025

Because Powell’s speech takes place just before the Fed’s blackout period ahead of the December policy meeting, it is likely to have outsized importance.

Any hints regarding future rates could trigger immediate market reactions. Ending quantitative tightening signals a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy, possibly increasing dollar liquidity.

Adding to the uncertainty, reports indicate President Trump has selected Powell’s replacement, though there is no official announcement yet.

This speculation may boost volatility, as markets weigh the prospect of a new chair who could push for faster rate cuts.

ADP Employment

Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP), the largest payroll processor in the US, is set to release the ADP Employment Change report for November, which measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US, at 8:15 am ET on Wednesday. 

The prior November report showed just 42,000 jobs added, according to MarketWatch’s economic calendar. New data will provide key insights into the health of the labor market ahead of the official government jobs numbers.

A strong employment figure could reduce chances of a rate cut and put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. In contrast, weak job growth would reinforce the case for Federal Reserve easing, which typically benefits crypto markets.

The colloquial AI bubble is expected to play a role in the US jobs report this week, even as different industry experts express their sentiment.

For the record, U.S. stocks peaked in October 2007 and the economy entered recession in December 2007. As of now, the S&P 500 peaked in October.

ADP private payroll job creation year to date is at the same level it was at when the GFC recession started.

Is the AI super bubble… pic.twitter.com/yqI4WcjEz2

— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) November 30, 2025

Labor statistics are crucial for the Fed’s dual mandate and guide policy decisions.

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims arrive on Thursday, December 4, at 8:30 am ET. As a weekly measure of layoffs, this report provides a real-time view of labor market conditions. It determines the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.

INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS REPORT 📉

This week’s initial claims held steady near 220K, close to recent multi-year lows — signaling continued labor market resilience.

Key highlights:

🔴Initial claims remain far below recession-trigger levels, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative.… pic.twitter.com/ggNRWeDo4E

— Zeiierman Trading (@zeiierman) November 26, 2025

Rising claims may indicate economic weakness and support calls for easier monetary policy, while falling claims would suggest resilience and less urgency for rate cuts.

Historically, Bitcoin has been highly sensitive to employment releases since they shape Fed monetary outlooks and liquidity.

Traders often position ahead of these reports, generating increased volatility in both spot and derivatives markets.

PCE Inflation Data

Friday, December 5, brings the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index at 8:30 am ET, the Fed’s preferred inflation benchmark.

This report is pivotal, as it tracks progress toward the central bank’s 2% goal. It will be released alongside personal income and spending data, providing a comprehensive view of consumer health.

Investors will focus on both headline and core PCE numbers. A softer reading could confirm the disinflation trend, solidifying expectations for a December rate cut.

Data from the CME Fed Watch Tool shows that interest bettors wager an 87.6% chance of a rate cut in the December 10 meeting, against a 12.4% chance that policymakers will hold steady.

Conversely, persistent inflation would prompt caution from the Fed, possibly disappointing markets looking for aggressive easing.

Consumer sentiment is reported at 10:00 am ET, with the prior value at 51.0 on the economic calendar. This data gauges household views on the economy and spending. Weakening sentiment can signal slowing demand and further support the case for easier monetary policy, which often lifts Bitcoin.

These four key economic releases in a single week create a high-stakes environment for digital asset markets. Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets means macroeconomic news is likely to drive market direction more than crypto-specific events.

As the first week of December commences, the interplay between jobs data, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve’s stance will determine Bitcoin’s momentum and response to changing monetary policy signals.

The post 4 US Economic Events to Shake Bitcoin Sentiment in First Week of December 2025 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1, 2024, marks a pivotal shift for crypto markets.

Despite this milestone, experts note that visible impact could take time. Balance sheet expansion may be delayed until early 2026 due to treasury settlement lags, mirroring past cycles.

Historical Patterns Link Fed Policy to Altcoin Performance

The Fed’s monetary policy increasingly influences the crypto market. Historically, when the Fed was not engaged in QT, altcoins showed notable strength against Bitcoin, sparking multi-year rallies and altering market dynamics.

These shifts signal a clear relationship between liquidity policy and crypto performance. Analyst Matthew Hyland identifies historical trends where non-QT periods were followed by sustained altcoin rallies lasting between 29 and 42 months, highlighted by the OTHERS.D/BTC.D ratio.

Hyland’s research spotlights the periods 2014-2017 and 2019-2022. During these periods, the absence of QT allowed altcoins to sustain uptrends for 42 and 29 months, respectively.

“Altcoins historically outperform BTC when QT is not active. Alts have seen a 42-month & 29-month uptrend whilst QT was not active during 2014-2017 & 2019-2022. Based on the very strong correlation to the Fed’s balance sheet, it’s highly favorable Alts outperform BTC for many years going forward,” wrote Hyland.

The OTHERS.D/BTC.D ratio, which compares altcoin market dominance to Bitcoin, climbed as monetary conditions improved, encouraging greater risk appetite.

The Fed’s approach closely mirrors these shifts. From 2014 to 2017, a supportive stance led to strong altcoin growth. Likewise, after QT ended in August 2019, another altcoin rally unfolded and lasted through 2022. These cycles suggest Fed liquidity policy is a core influence on crypto risk assets.

$OTHERSBTC & $WALCL (Fed Balance Sheet)

The End of QT marked the bottom on $OTHERSBTC back in August 2019

This time, QT ends on December 1, 2025 👀

The $Alts Supercycle begins tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/IaoA2NoIrf

— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) November 30, 2025

Hyland emphasized that the current balance sheet, around $6.55 trillion and stabilizing post-QT, supports optimism for multi-year altcoin outperformance relative to Bitcoin.

Critical 0.25 Level May Signal Altcoin Season Launch

Technical analysis shows the ALT/BTC pair historically bottomed at 0.25 after QT ended. This threshold is seen as a key marker signaling the potential start of an altcoin rally and may again indicate the next phase of upward momentum.

The ALT/BTC ratio is now at 0.36, which is above this vital support level. If this measure approaches 0.25, it could signal the typical capitulation that precedes lasting altcoin strength.

The 0.25 line holds strong technical and psychological significance, often representing where altcoins regain upward momentum against Bitcoin.

Capital often rotates into alternative cryptocurrencies when Bitcoin dominance declines. According to August 2025 Coinbase research, Bitcoin’s dominance dropped from 65% in May to about 59% by August.

This trend points to early capital flows favoring altcoins, a hallmark of “altcoin season.”

Balance Sheet Expansion Delays Could Postpone Market Impact

While QT has officially ended, immediate effects are unlikely. The experience from 2019 shows that settlement lags can postpone observable balance sheet expansion and, by extension, crypto market reactions.

Benjamin Cowen highlighted operational factors. In 2019, although QT ended in August, balance sheet growth lagged as treasury maturities settled later that month. Policy changes can thus take time to reach financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

“Just because QT ends December 1 does not mean the balance sheet immediately starts going up. It might take until early 2026 to notice that,” wrote Cowen.

These operational realities matter for market timing. Mechanisms such as treasury settlements and reserve management can delay balance sheet expansion by months, causing uncertain conditions for traders awaiting clear policy impact. Volatility may persist during this window.

Fed research underlines these complexities. Shifts in the Treasury General Account and settlement schedules may skew short-term balance sheet readings.

The experience of August 2019 shows that patience is needed before definitive market patterns emerge, likely in 2025 or 2026.

Despite near-term uncertainties, the outlook for altcoin markets remains constructive. Once Fed-driven liquidity expansion becomes evident, historical trends indicate altcoins often benefit.

The post Fed to End QT: Could this Trigger Multi-Year Altcoin Rally Akin to 2019-2022? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

A powerful and unusual wave of global capital is rushing into US markets. Foreign investors are buying American equities at a record pace, Treasury demand is reshuffling at a structural level, and domestic inflows are accelerating into year-end.

At the same time, US consumer debt has hit its highest level in history. For crypto and equity investors, the scale and direction of these flows signal a major shift in risk appetite and global macro positioning.

Foreign Investors Drive Record Equity Buying Amid Historic Realignment in Treasury Ownership

Private investors outside the US purchased $646.8 billion in US equities in the 12 months ending September 2025, according to data cited by Yardeni Research.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Private investors outside U.S. purchased record $646.8 billion of U.S. equities in the 12 months ending in September 2025 – Yardeni Research. pic.twitter.com/9dPxGJoS3g

— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) November 30, 2025

This marks the highest level on record, surpassing the 2021 peak by 66%, with flows doubling since January.

The buying is not limited to US equities. Foreign private-investor purchases of US Treasuries totalled $492.7 billion in the same period. Rolling 12-month non-US buying of Treasuries has remained above $400 billion for four consecutive years, reflecting persistent global demand for dollar-denominated safety.

“Everyone wants US assets,” analysts at the Kobeissi Letter remarked.

The composition of foreign Treasury holders is shifting in ways not seen in decades:

• China’s share of foreign Treasury holdings has fallen to 7.6%, the lowest in 23 years, and down 20% over 14 years.
• The UK’s share has quadrupled to 9.4%, near its highest level on record.
• Japan, still the largest foreign holder, now accounts for 12.9%, down 26 points over the last 21 years.

These shifts suggest a long-term repositioning of sovereign and private capital, a trend with direct implications for interest rates, liquidity, and market volatility.

Something unusual is happening in the US Treasury market:

China’s Treasury holdings as a % of all foreign holdings is down to 7.6%, the lowest in 23 years.

This percentage has declined -20 points over the last 14 years.

As a result, China now ranks as the world’s 3rd-largest… pic.twitter.com/JWJ4bbhbsy

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 29, 2025

Domestic Investors Also Going Risk-On, But Record Consumer Debt Adds Complexity

US investors have poured an extraordinary $900 billion into equity funds since November 2024, according to JPMorgan data, with half of that total, $450 billion, arriving in just the last five months.

Fixed-income funds added another $400 billion, while all other asset classes combined attracted only $100 billion.

Inflows into US equities have exceeded those into all other asset classes combined, reinforcing the strength of the bid for US risk assets.

While institutional and foreign investors are ramping up their exposure, US households are under growing financial pressure. Total US credit-card debt climbed to $1.233 trillion in Q3 2025, the highest level ever recorded.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Total U.S. credit-card debt reaches $1.233 trillion in third quarter of 2025, highest amount since tracking began. pic.twitter.com/sFi2cMhZTg

— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) November 30, 2025

This divergence between market optimism and consumer strain raises questions about sustainability, earnings resilience, and the timing of potential policy shifts.

Seasonality and Bullish Projections Lift Sentiment

JP Morgan expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 next year, a view reinforced by powerful seasonal tailwinds. This projection comes as markets anticipate the bank’s “everything rally” forecast shared just over a week ago.

S&P 500 could hit 8,000 next year says JP Morgan 🥳📈🤑🫂 pic.twitter.com/l8zYgPAtWS

— Barchart (@Barchart) November 29, 2025

December has historically been the strongest month for US stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 73% of the time since 1928 and delivering an average return of +1.28%.

For both crypto and equity markets, the surge in capital flows toward the US signals rising confidence in American assets, or a lack of attractive alternatives abroad.

Investors will watch to see whether these inflows accelerate in 2026, how Treasury demand shifts as global holdings rebalance, and whether record consumer debt becomes a drag on macroeconomic momentum.

With liquidity building and seasonality strengthening, both traditional markets and digital assets are entering a potentially decisive phase.

The post Foreign Investors Set Record With $646.8 Billion in US Stock Purchases Amid Shifting Global Capital Flows appeared first on BeInCrypto.

On December 1, 2025, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will officially end Quantitative Tightening (QT), freezing its balance sheet at $6.57 trillion after draining $2.39 trillion from the system.

Analysts point to parallels with 2019, when the last QT pause coincided with a major bottom in altcoins and a surge in Bitcoin. With liquidity returning and interest rates already cut to 3.75–4.00%, crypto markets are bracing for a potentially bullish shift.

Fed Ends QT Tomorrow — Crypto Eyes 2019-Style Liquidity Boost

The Fed’s halt of its balance sheet runoff comes amid strained bank reserves, now roughly $3 trillion, or about 10% of US GDP. The Overnight Reverse Repo facility, which previously absorbed $2.5 trillion in excess cash, has dropped to near zero, removing a key liquidity buffer.

October 2025 saw the Secured Overnight Financing Rate spike to 4.25%, exceeding the Fed’s target range. The Standing Repo Facility recorded a single-day activation of $18.5 billion, reflecting persistent demand for liquidity.

FOMC minutes from October 29 detail operational adjustments designed to improve policy transmission.

“The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1,” read an excerpt in the Fed’s October 29 statement.

This means that QT officially ends on December 1, and the Fed will stop letting its securities mature without reinvestment. From that day forward, the balance sheet will no longer shrink.

The Committee noted that downside risks to employment have risen, even though unemployment remains low, and inflation is “somewhat elevated.”

Analysts note that this marks a long-term shift: the Standing Repo Facility, initially an emergency tool, now functions as a permanent daily liquidity provider, effectively embedding the Fed in Treasury market operations.

Researcher Shanaka Anslem describes this as the “Standing Repo Era,” a structural transformation with lasting implications for global finance.

THE FED JUST CROSSED A THRESHOLD NO ONE IS DISCUSSING

December 1, 2025. The Federal Reserve terminates Quantitative Tightening. Balance sheet frozen at $6.57 trillion. The largest liquidity withdrawal in central banking history ends after draining $2.39 trillion from the… pic.twitter.com/W0QjrXC3JB

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) November 30, 2025

Historical Parallels and Crypto Market Implications

Crypto analysts are drawing direct comparisons to August 2019, when the Fed ended QT, and altcoins bottomed.

$OTHERSBTC & $WALCL (Fed Balance Sheet)

The End of QT marked the bottom on $OTHERSBTC back in August 2019

This time, QT ends on December 1, 2025 👀

The $Alts Supercycle begins tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/IaoA2NoIrf

— CryptoBullet (@CryptoBullet1) November 30, 2025

While past performance is not a guarantee, key indicators support cautious optimism:

• Bitcoin dominance is below 60%,
• The global M2 money supply is rising, and historically leads BTC by 10–12 weeks.

The end of QT could inject up to $95 billion per month in liquidity, supporting large-cap cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB.

Gold’s recent all-time highs provide additional correlation, as BTC often lags gold price moves by roughly 12 weeks.

Meanwhile,the Fed’s December 10 FOMC meeting occurs amid unusual conditions:

• A 43-day government shutdown erased two months of CPI data, leaving policymakers without fresh inflation figures.
• CPI currently sits at 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the Fed is considering additional rate cuts after October’s 25-bps reduction.

The US federal debt exceeds $36 trillion, with annual interest costs above $1 trillion. The Standing Repo Facility now enables rapid monetization of Treasury collateral, representing a structural shift with long-term market implications.

Some crypto analysts anticipate an immediate rally following QT’s end, while others see a smaller altseason within 2–3 months and a larger market cycle in 2027–2028.

🚨 Fed Liquidity is Here: The Crypto Melt-Up Starts Now 🚨

The Fed is on the verge of ending QT, just like 2019 and that means one thing: Liquidity is coming back.

If you know what this means for #Bitcoin and altcoins, you should be excited.

Here’s why I think this is the…

— VirtualBacon (@virtualbacon) October 28, 2025

Consensus holds that liquidity, rather than hype or Bitcoin halvings, has historically driven crypto cycles.

December 1 marks a critical turning point as the Fed’s liquidity pivot could remove one major obstacle for risk assets. The move could set the stage for crypto markets to respond, whether through a mini rally or the early stages of a broader Supercycle.

While QT ends on December 1, the Fed emphasized that future adjustments to the federal funds rate will depend on incoming data and changing economic risks.

This signals that the Fed is keeping monetary policy flexible, prepared to adjust rates or other measures if necessary.

Investors should watch interest rate guidance, Treasury liquidity operations, and M2 money supply trends in the coming weeks.

The post Tomorrow the Fed Ends QT — Crypto Thinks the Melt-Up Starts Now appeared first on BeInCrypto.

MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le has, for the first time, acknowledged that the company could sell its 649,870 BTC holdings under specific crisis conditions.

This marks a significant shift from Chairman Michael Saylor’s long-standing “never sell” philosophy and signals a new chapter for the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

CEO Phong Le Reveals Hidden Kill-Switch in MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy

MicroStrategy has confirmed a scenario almost no one thought possible: the potential to sell Bitcoin, its core treasury asset. Speaking on What Bitcoin Did, CEO Phong Le outlined the precise trigger that would force a Bitcoin sale:

• First, the company’s stock must trade below 1x mNAV, meaning the market capitalization falls below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
• Second, MicroStrategy must be unable to raise new capital through equity or debt issuance. This would mean capital markets are closed or too expensive to access.

JUST IN: Strategy CEO Phong Le says $BTC would only be sold if the company’s stock falls below net asset value and funding options disappear, calling it a financial decision. pic.twitter.com/YpgEIeF3qe

— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) November 30, 2025

Le clarified that the board has not planned near-term sales, but confirmed that this option “is in the toolkit” if financial conditions deteriorate.

This is the first explicit acknowledgement, after years of Michael Saylor’s absolutist claim that “we will never sell Bitcoin.” It shows that MicroStrategy does, in fact, have a kill-switch tied directly to liquidity pressure.

Why the 1x mNAV Threshold Matters

mNAV compares MicroStrategy’s market value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. When mNAV drops below 1, the company becomes worth less than the Bitcoin it owns.

Several analysts, including AB Kuai Dong and Larry Lanzilli, note that the company is now facing a new constraint. The mNAV premium that powered its Bitcoin-accumulation flywheel has nearly vanished for the first time since early 2024.

As of November 30, mNAV hovers near 0.95x, edging uncomfortably close to the 0.9x “danger zone.”

If mNAV falls below 0.9x, MicroStrategy could be pushed toward BTC-funded dividend obligations. Under extreme conditions the firm would be compelled to sell portions of its treasury to maintain shareholder value.

🧵 MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le just confirmed on What Bitcoin Did (Nov 29, 2025):

😯 “If MSTR stock trades <1x mNAV AND we can’t raise fresh capital → we would sell portions of our #Bitcoin as a last-resort move.”

🤔 He called it “mathematically justified” to protect Bitcoin…

— Larry Lanzilli (@lanzilli) November 30, 2025

The pressure stems from $750–$800 million in annual preferred share dividend payments, issued during MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin expansion.

Previously, the company used new equity issuances to cover these costs. With the stock down more than 60% from its highs and market skepticism rising, that avenue is narrowing.

Analysts Warn of a Structural Shift

According to Astryx Research, MicroStrategy has effectively transformed into a “leveraged Bitcoin ETF with a software company attached.” That structure works when BTC rises, but amplifies stress when liquidity tightens or volatility spikes.

Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy: Genius or Hidden Risk?@saylor and MicroStrategy have done something no public company in history has ever done:

They turned their balance sheet into a leveraged Bitcoin ETF with a software company attached — and it has paid off massively.… pic.twitter.com/KfAMJYWB7y

— Astryx Research (@AstryxHQ) November 30, 2025

SEC filings have long warned about liquidity risk during a deep Bitcoin drawdown. While the firm maintains that it faces no forced liquidation risk due to its convertible debt structure, the CEO’s latest comments confirm a mathematically defined trigger for voluntary sales.

If $BTC drops to our $74K average cost basis, we still have 5.9x assets to convertible debt, which we refer to as the BTC Rating of our debt. At $25K BTC, it would be 2.0x.

— Strategy (@Strategy) November 25, 2025

Why This Matters for Bitcoin Investors

MicroStrategy is the largest corporate BTC holder in the world. Its “HODL forever” stance has been a symbolic pillar of the institutional Bitcoin thesis. Acknowledging a sell condition, even if distant, shifts that narrative toward realism:

• Liquidity can override ideology.
• Market structure matters as much as conviction.
• The Bitcoin cycle now has a new, and measurable, risk threshold: the 0.9x mNAV line.

Investors will watch Monday’s updates closely as analysts track whether mNAV stabilizes or continues slipping toward 0.9x.

Any further weakness in BTC or MSTR stock could intensify scrutiny of MicroStrategy’s balance sheet strategy heading into 2026.

The post MicroStrategy Admits a Bitcoin Sale Is Possible—Here’s When appeared first on BeInCrypto.