Japan’s 2-year government bond yield surged to 1% on December 1, its highest since 2008. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a possible interest rate hike at the December 18-19 monetary policy meeting, sending ripples through global financial markets.

This development could mark the end of three decades of ultra-low interest rates that fueled the yen carry trade. As borrowing costs rise and the yen strengthens, global markets now brace for significant deleveraging across asset classes.

Bond Yields Climb as Rate Hike Expectations Grow

Japan’s bond market moved sharply following Ueda’s recent statements. The 2-year note yield rose by one basis point to 1%. Longer-dated bonds also saw gains: five-year yields rose about four basis points to 1.35%, and 10-year yields climbed to 1.845%, according to Bloomberg data.

During trading, 10-year government bond yields reached 1.850%, their highest level since June 2008. This 17-year high highlights market belief that the BOJ will tighten policy soon. The shift in yields underscores the rapid change in investor sentiment on the central bank’s next move.

Markets responded quickly. The yen gained as much as 0.4% against the dollar, trading at 155.49 on December 1. This reversal from November’s levels reflects growing expectations of higher Japanese interest rates, which are making yen assets newly attractive.

At a business meeting in Nagoya, Ueda stated that reduced uncertainty around the US economy and tariffs bolstered confidence in Japan’s economic and price outlook. He reaffirmed that timely rate changes are key for financial stability and meeting the 2% inflation target.

Inflation and Fiscal Policy Drive Shift Toward Tightening

The government’s expansionary fiscal policy has added to inflation pressures, building a case for monetary tightening. Yen depreciation has lifted import prices, fueling consumer inflation and raising questions about the sustainability of price stability. Governor Ueda highlighted the growing impact of a weaker yen on import costs and warned that expectations could affect core inflation.

Market forecasts now suggest the BOJ’s policy rate could reach 1.4% following three 25-basis-point hikes from the current 0.5% rate. Based on Overnight Indexed Swap rates and 1-year forward rates, expectations are clearly rising. Katsutoshi Inatome of Mitsui Sumitomo Trust said that a hike in December would push future rate estimates even higher.

The BOJ faces a careful balance. While lifting rates tackles inflation and supports the currency, it could disrupt financial flows that have relied on cheap Japanese funding. Ueda emphasized that any hike would be measured in an accommodative manner, not as a sharp break. He added that Japanese policy has revived a system where both wages and prices can rise moderately.

Global Markets React as Yen Carry Trade Nears End

The possible unwinding of the yen carry trade marks a significant change for global finance. For 30 years, investors borrowed yen at low rates to seek higher returns elsewhere, supporting asset prices from US stocks to emerging market bonds. This provided leverage that fueled many market rallies.

As Japanese rates climb, the economics of the carry trade shift. Borrowers who locked in 1% funding with a stable yen now face repayment at 3% and a currency that has appreciated by 10%. This raises the effective borrowing cost to around 13%, making such trades far less attractive. The August 2024 flash crash previewed the turmoil that can occur when carry trade positions unwind quickly.

“For 30 years, the Yen Carry Trade subsidized global arrogance — zero rates… free leverage… fake growth… entire economies built on borrowed time and borrowed money. Now Japan has reversed the switch. Rates climbed. Yen strengthened. And the world’s favourite ATM just turned into a debt-collector.” – AlgoBoffin

The Nikkei 225 fell 1.88% as deleveraging began, and analysts warn that this could start a cycle of forced asset sales. When cheap yen financing vanishes, markets must rely on fundamental strength instead of leverage. The ripples stretch beyond Japan, impacting financial hubs like Wall Street and Shanghai that benefited from yen-driven liquidity.

Cryptocurrency markets are especially vulnerable to tighter global liquidity. Bitcoin and other digital assets respond sharply to changes in funding. Typically, risk assets absorb the first wave of volatility when liquidity dries up, potentially causing swings in crypto valuations.

These **three charts together (Japan 10Y + Silver + Bitcoin)** are telling one of the **clearest macro stories of our lifetime**.

## **1️⃣ Japan 10-Year Yield (The Beginning of the End of “Free Money”)**

For 30+ years, Japan kept interest rates near **zero**.
This created the… pic.twitter.com/JBIOu3SrwS

— ajay patel (@ajaycan) December 1, 2025

Some analysts argue that this transition exposes underlying market dynamics that have been masked by years of loose monetary policy. As liquidity tightens and rates normalize, asset prices may be judged more on intrinsic value than on cheap financing. This shift could benefit some commodities and hard assets, but challenge growth sectors that flourished with ultra-low rates.

The coming weeks are pivotal as the BOJ considers its December decision. Markets are set for tightening, but the exact pace is unknown. Whether Japan chooses gradual or sharper rate increases will shape how quickly and severely global deleveraging unfolds. The era of free Japanese money seems to be ending, ushering in a period of higher volatility and greater scrutiny of market fundamentals worldwide.

The post Yen Carry Crypto Trading Over? Japan Signals Rate Hike appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin briefly plunged below $87,000, wiping out a week’s gains in one session.

The fast selloff triggered $400 million in liquidations within just 60 minutes and pushed the global crypto market capitalization down 4% to $3.04 trillion. Trading activity surged as both retail and institutional investors reacted swiftly to price pressure.

Market Turmoil Sparks Massive Liquidations

Liquidations surged across leveraged positions, reflecting the speed of the downturn. Market data noted $400 million liquidated in just one hour. This rapid wave of losses highlights the risks for traders during sharp price moves.

BREAKING: Bitcoin falls -$4,000 in 2 hours as mass liquidations return.

$400 million worth of levered longs have been liquidated over the last 60 minutes. pic.twitter.com/qKB7MYJapu

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 1, 2025

Trading volume spiked to over $110 billion as investors adjusted their holdings. Bitcoin’s dominance stood at 57.1%, while Ethereum held 11.3%, according to CoinGecko data.

The Kobeissi Letter attributed the crash to thin weekend liquidity and record-high leverage, saying, “This crypto bear market is still structural in nature. We do NOT view this as a fundamental decline.” The analyst noted that Bitcoin fell $4,000 in minutes with no news. This triggered a domino-effect selloff amplified by mass liquidations of leveraged positions.

Other analysts have warned that Bitcoin’s price pattern resembles earlier bearish cycles. Following a recovery above $90,000 after a drop on November 20, Bitcoin hovered around $91,208.85 on November 28 and maintained support at $90,000 for six days.

Korbot Labs describes that the current price action echoes April 2024, when Bitcoin bounced back above $70,000 only to drop to $57,000 by May and later to $67,000 by June. This pattern suggests that further sideways movement or another correction is possible.

Another analyst cautioned about the risk of deeper losses, noting that a “wipe out” could occur if Bitcoin falls through the $80,000 support level.

“Bitcoin not a good open to start the week! Much closer to becoming 2-1-2d as a measured move. This tends to cause a ‘wipe out’ type move if we successfully break through 80.00. Could see as low as 48k if we see the sellers stick around into the end of this year.”

Technical analysis also points to crucial support zones. Should selling persist, prices could slip much further. A drop to $48,000 would mark a dramatic 45% decline from current levels, but such a move would likely require sustained bearish sentiment.

Asset Rotation Narrative Shapes Sentiment

Some analysts see Bitcoin’s selloff as part of a broader shift in asset allocation. The move came as traditional safe-haven assets like precious metals outperformed. This suggests some investors are reconsidering their risk exposure.

This argument states that capital is flowing from digital assets to “hard money” alternatives. Silver, for example, surged even as Bitcoin fell. Some analysts see this as a sign of changing investor preferences.

“While #Bitcoin just erased most of the last week gain in a single candle, #Silver is breaking out vertically like there’s no tomorrow. Money is choosing real assets over speculative assets. The rotation is screaming loud: Paper wealth → Hard money, Digital risk → Monetary metals” – Macrobysunil

This theory remains hotly debated. Bitcoin has repeatedly rebounded from steep selloffs. Its 57.1% market dominance shows it still attracts most digital asset flows, despite volatility.

Meanwhile, on the first day of December, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $87,000 before quickly recovering. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading in the $87,200–$87,400 range, with market participants closely watching whether the $87,000 support level will hold.

The post Bitcoin Dips Below $87K: One Week’s Gains Gone in One Candle appeared first on BeInCrypto.

MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor’s cryptic post, “What if we start adding green dots?” to his well-known Bitcoin accumulation chart, has fueled widespread speculation across crypto circles.

The signal emerges just as CEO Phong Le publicly acknowledged, for the first time, that the company may sell Bitcoin under certain stress conditions. This dual narrative could mark a turning point for the corporate world’s most aggressive Bitcoin treasury strategy.

Decoding the Green Dots Mystery

Saylor’s Sunday post on X displayed the company’s Bitcoin portfolio chart. It outlined 87 purchase events totaling 649,870 BTC, valued at $59.45 billion, with an average cost of $74,433 per Bitcoin. Orange dots mark each acquisition since August 2020, while a dashed green line shows the average purchase price.

What if we start adding green dots? pic.twitter.com/a19bD33KzD

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 30, 2025

The crypto community quickly interpreted the green dots as a signal for accelerated Bitcoin purchases. One analyst summarized the bullish case, noting MicroStrategy has capital, conviction, substantial net asset value, and cash flow to support continued acquisitions. However, some offered alternative theories, including the possibility of stock buybacks or asset restructuring.

This ambiguity reflects Saylor’s history of cryptic messages. Supporters view his posts as deliberate signals of strategy, while skeptics question if they are merely for engagement. Still, the timing of this signal, along with financial disclosures, points to more than mere commentary.

First Admission: Bitcoin Sales Remain an Option

In a significant shift from MicroStrategy’s “never sell” philosophy, CEO Phong Le publicly admitted the company may sell Bitcoin if certain crisis conditions arise. MicroStrategy would consider a sale only if two triggers occur: the stock trades below 1x modified Net Asset Value (mNAV) and the company cannot raise new capital through equity or debt.

People don’t realize how big this is:

1. Strategy has capital

2. conviction is unchanged

3. NAV is strong

4. cash flow supports buys

5. demand could spike

"A Saylor signal is never random."

— George (@ScrewiexD) November 30, 2025

Modified Net Asset Value measures the company’s enterprise value divided by its Bitcoin holdings. As of November 30, 2025, the mNAV was near 0.95, close to the threshold. If it drops below 0.9, MicroStrategy could be pressured to liquidate Bitcoin to meet its $750 to $800 million annual preferred share dividend obligations.

The company issued perpetual preferred stock throughout 2025 to fund Bitcoin acquisitions. According to official press releases, the 8.00% Series A Perpetual Strike Preferred Stock requires quarterly dividends starting on March 31, 2025. These ongoing obligations add new liquidity pressure, especially as equity markets become less receptive to new issuances.

This policy change introduces a measurable risk threshold. Analysts now consider MicroStrategy much like a leveraged Bitcoin ETF: benefiting from appreciation in bull markets, but exposed to amplified risks when liquidity tightens.

Bitcoin Price Movement and Strategic Implications

Bitcoin’s recent price movement adds essential context to both Saylor’s message and Le’s admission.

MicroStrategy’s portfolio showed a 22.91% gain ($11.08 billion) as of November 30, 2025, bringing its valuation to $59.45 billion. However, its stock declined by more than 60% from recent highs, revealing a gap between Bitcoin gains and shareholder returns. This gap impacts the mNAV calculation and raises questions about the strategy’s sustainability.

green dots = more btc acquisitions. microstrategy proved treasury strategy works in bull markets. real test is holding through -80% drawdowns without forced liquidation. conviction has a price denominated in shareholder patience

— João Alcantara (@joaonalcantara) November 30, 2025

Some community members acknowledge this tension. One observer commented on X that green dots may suggest more Bitcoin acquisitions, but the key issue is whether MicroStrategy can hold through deep drawdowns without forced liquidation. This underscores the strategy’s challenge: strong in bull markets but unproven in downturns.

According to the company’s third-quarter 2025 financial results, it held roughly 640,808 bitcoins as of October 26, 2025, with an original cost basis of $47.4 billion. The subsequent growth to 649,870 BTC by November 30 highlights ongoing accumulation despite volatility.

The post What Do Saylor’s Green Dots Mean? Secret Trigger? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

A South Korean expert has suggested that the recent Upbit breach may have originated from a high-level mathematical exploit targeting flaws in the exchange’s signature or random-number generation system.

Rather than a conventional wallet compromise, the attack appears to have leveraged subtle nonce-bias patterns embedded in millions of Solana transactions—an approach requiring advanced cryptographic expertise and significant computational resources.

Technical Analysis of the Breach

On Friday, Upbit operator Dunamu’s CEO Kyoungsuk Oh issued a public apology regarding the Upbit incident, acknowledging that the company had discovered a security flaw that allowed an attacker to infer private keys by analyzing a large number of Upbit wallet transactions exposed on the blockchain. His statement, however, raised immediate questions about how private keys could be stolen through transaction data.

The next day, Professor Jaewoo Cho of Hansung University provided insight into the breach, linking it to biased or predictable nonces within Upbit’s internal signing system. Rather than typical ECDSA nonce-reuse flaws, this method exploited subtle statistical patterns in the platform’s cryptography. Cho explained that attackers could examine millions of leaked signatures, infer bias patterns, and ultimately recover private keys.

This perspective aligns with recent studies showing that affinely related ECDSA nonces create a significant risk. A 2025 study on arXiv demonstrated that just two signatures with such related nonces can expose private keys. As a result, private key extraction becomes far easier for attackers who can gather large datasets from exchanges.

The level of technical sophistication suggests an organized group with advanced cryptographic skills conducted this exploit. According to Cho, identifying minimal bias across millions of signatures requires not only mathematical expertise but also extensive computational resources.

In response to the incident, Upbit moved all remaining assets to secure cold wallets and halted digital asset deposits and withdrawals. The exchange has also pledged to restore any losses from its reserves, ensuring immediate damage control.

Extent and Security Implications

Evidence from a Korean researcher indicates that hackers gained access not only to the exchange’s hot wallet but also to individual deposit wallets. This may point to the compromise of sweep-authority keys—or even the private keys themselves—signaling a grave security breach.

Another researcher points out that, if private keys were exposed, Upbit could be forced to comprehensively overhaul its security systems, including its hardware security modules (HSM), multi-party computation (MPC), and wallet structures. This scenario raises questions about internal controls, indicating possible insider involvement and placing Upbit’s reputation at risk. The extent of the attack highlights the need for robust security protocols and strict access controls across major exchanges.

The incident illustrates that even highly engineered systems can conceal mathematical weaknesses. Effective nonce generation must ensure randomness and unpredictability. Detectable bias creates vulnerabilities that attackers can exploit. Organized attackers are increasingly capable of identifying and leveraging these flaws.

Research into ECDSA safeguards stresses that faulty randomness in nonce creation can leak key information. The Upbit case shows how theoretical vulnerabilities can translate into major real-world losses when attackers have the expertise and motivation to exploit them.

Timing and Industry Impact

The attack’s timing has fueled community speculation. It occurred exactly six years after a comparable Upbit breach in 2019, which was attributed to North Korean hackers. Furthermore, the hack coincided with the announcement of a major merger involving Naver Financial and Dunamu, Upbit’s parent company.

Online, some conspiracy theories about coordination or insider knowledge, while others suggest the attack could mask other motives, such as internal embezzlement. Although the clear technical evidence of a complex mathematical exploit points to a highly advanced attack by cybercriminals, critics say the pattern still mirrors longstanding concerns about Korean exchanges:

“Everyone knows these exchanges massacre retail traders by listing questionable tokens and letting them die with no liquidity,” one user wrote. Others noted, “Two overseas altcoin exchanges recently pulled the same stunt and disappeared,” while another accused the company directly: “Is this just internal embezzlement and plugging the hole with company funds?”

The 2019 Upbit case showed that North Korea-aligned entities had previously targeted major exchanges to evade sanctions through cyber theft. Although it’s unclear if the current incident involved state-sponsored actors, the advanced nature of the attack remains concerning.

The post Upbit Hack Stemmed From High-Level Mathematical Exploit, Says Local Expert appeared first on BeInCrypto.