XRP price has fallen almost 10% over the past month despite a slight 1.5% gain this week. The price remains locked inside a $2.31–$1.98 range, failing to secure any meaningful breakout. This tension reflects a split in market behavior: whales are selling into strength while key holder groups continue accumulating.
The push and pull between these two sides is keeping the XRP price inside a falling wedge that has yet to confirm a bullish reversal.
Whales Trim While Key Holder Groups Resist the Pressure
Whale activity shows a clear shift toward caution.
Wallets holding 100 million–1 billion XRP cut their balances from 8.32 billion to 8.27 billion, starting December 7. Another group holding 10–100 million XRP reduced its supply from 11.01 billion to 10.99 billion on December 8. Together, they offloaded about 70 million XRP over the past 48 hours, worth roughly $143 million at the current price.
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The selling is not dramatic in token terms, but it arrives at a sensitive moment — exactly when XRP is trying to stabilize. This sell pressure helps explain why every breakout attempt has stalled before gaining momentum.
The counterforce comes from short- and mid-term holders, and this shows up clearly on HODL Waves. HODL Waves track how much XRP is held in each “coin age band,” showing how long tokens remain unmoved.
The one-to three-month group increased from 8.52% to 10.31%. The three-to six-month group rose from 9.40% to 10.87%.
These holders typically accumulate when they believe selling pressure is easing. Their buying into a 10% monthly decline suggests they expect the wedge structure to resolve to the upside eventually.
That tension is holding the XRP price inside the same narrowing structure.
XRP Price Pattern Shows a Stalemate as Buyers and Sellers Pull in Opposite Directions
XRP is forming a falling wedge, a pattern that usually favors bullish reversals — but only if buyers can force a decisive breakout. Right now, the wedge is functioning more as a stalemate, with whale selling capping momentum and accumulating holders preventing deeper downside.
The breakout point sits near $2.46, where the descending trendline meets current price action. The XRP price needs a strong daily close above this level to confirm a reversal. If that happens, upside targets sit at $2.61, $2.83, and $3.11.
While price trades between $2.31 and $1.98, the wedge remains valid. A break below $1.98, however, weakens the pattern and exposes $1.82, a level that served as structural support earlier in the cycle.
For now, the outlook is simple: Whale selling delays the breakout. Mid-term accumulation keeps the structure alive. The wedge will not resolve until one side overwhelms the other.
[Victoria, Seychelles, 9 December 2025] BitMEX, one of the safest crypto exchanges, announced today the launch of fiat-to-crypto on-ramps on its platform through a partnership with Mercuryo, a global payment infrastructure platform.
The introduction of this feature will enable users on the exchange to purchase cryptocurrency using a variety of fiat currencies.
The availability of Mercuryo’s on-ramps on BitMEX will simplify the onboarding of new users, streamlining the process of converting fiat assets such as USD into digital tokens to use for trading on the platform.
Payment methods accepted via the BitMEX-Mercuryo integration include credit cards, bank transfer, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. More than 30 fiat currencies are supported through the integration, available to traders in all eligible jurisdictions*.
The integration will allow user accounts to be credited with their chosen cryptocurrency in a matter of minutes. With the payment gateway directly integrated into BitMEX, users can convert their fiat into crypto to support their trading on BitMEX’s spot and futures markets, including bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL).
“The integration of Mercuryo’s on-ramps on the BitMEX platform provides our users with a robust and intuitive means of converting fiat into the cryptocurrency of their choice,” said Raphael Polansky, Chief Growth Officer at BitMEX. “The user experience (UX) is everything in crypt,o and Mercuryo has proven expertise in delivering an optimum on-ramp experience.”
“The integration of Mercuryo’s on-ramps gives BitMEX traders the convenience of a trusted gateway wrapped in a familiar interface,” said Petr Kozyakov, Co-Founder and CEO at Mercuryo. “This is an important step towards enhancing the trading experience for millions of BitMEX’s global users.”
For more information on the new fiat-to-crypto conversion feature on BitMEX, visit this page.
About BitMEX
BitMEX is the OG crypto derivatives exchange, providing professional crypto traders with a platform that caters to their needs through low latency, deep crypto native liquidity, and unmatched reliability.
Since its founding, no cryptocurrency has been lost through intrusion or hacking, allowing BitMEX users to trade safely in the knowledge that their funds are secure. So that they have access to the products and tools they require to be profitable. BitMEX was also one of the first exchanges to publish its on-chain Proof of Reserves and Proof of Liabilities data. The exchange continues to publish this data twice a week, proving assurance that they safely store and segregate the funds they are entrusted with.
Mercuryo is a first-mover and innovator in the fast-evolving Web3 space, providing a variety of payment solutions along with integrated on-chain functionality. Mercuryo’s intuitive solutions are simplifying the experience for newcomers to the digital token space. Since 2018, Mercuryo has proudly partnered with industry leaders such as MetaMask, Trust Wallet, Ledger, 1inch, PancakeSwap, and more, with plans to expand further as we continue to innovate with our stack of products.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opens its December 2025 session today, with the decision set for release tomorrow, December 10, at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Investors and traders are watching closely to see whether the central bank will continue its easing cycle or surprise markets by holding rates steady. As the final policy announcement of the year, the outcome carries considerable weight for crypto markets.
The Rate Cut Scenario: What Happens if the Fed Delivers a 25 bps Cut in December
As the announcement nears, market expectations are leaning heavily toward a rate cut, with a 25-basis-point move seen as the most likely outcome. Data from CME FedWatch shows traders assigning an 89.4% chance to a quarter-point cut at the December 10 meeting.
In contrast, only about 10.6% of market participants believe the Fed will keep rates at the current 3.75%-4.00% range.
Fed Rate Cut Odds in December. Source: CME FedWatch
If the Fed proceeds with a cut, it would be the third in a row this year, following the adjustments in September and October. This would bring the interest rate down to 3.50%–3.75%.
September’s cut triggered a brief lift in the crypto market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum posting gains. At the same time, the US dollar dropped to its weakest level since early 2022.
Nonetheless, the broader market downturn muted the impact of the October cut. In December, volatility remains elevated, with sharp swings in both directions.
Still, many analysts argue that another cut at this stage would likely be viewed as “bullish” for crypto.
“If you think this is not bullish for Bitcoin and risk assets, you are not paying attention. Prepare for volatility. Prepare for green candles,” an analyst said.
For cryptocurrencies, such a standard adjustment is viewed as mildly bullish, as it enhances liquidity and encourages investment in risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Nonetheless, Crypto Rover explained that markets have already adjusted to that outcome, so the actual announcement is unlikely to cause a big reaction.
According to the analyst, the real catalyst for market movement will be Powell’s press conference, not the rate cut itself.
“Bank of America expects Powell to hint at ‘reserve management purchases,’ meaning fresh liquidity injections to stabilize small-bank funding stress. This would help normalize SOFR and support liquidity across markets. If Powell sounds dovish and says that inflation is calming, tariffs haven’t changed the trend, and labor is softening, it’ll give markets the green light to expect more cuts. But if he sounds hawkish, similar to the last FOMC meeting, Bitcoin and alts will dump,” he remarked.
Meanwhile, some investors are even expecting a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
This would be a strong policy signal, leading to rapidly expanding liquidity and further weakening of the dollar. While the probability of this scenario is low, it would likely have a stronger positive impact on crypto markets.
The No-Rate-Cut Scenario: Why a Fed Hold Could Hit Crypto Sentiment
Although few analysts predict it, the possibility that the Fed will hold rates cannot be ruled out. The rate decision arrives against a backdrop of disrupted economic indicators. The government shutdown halted key data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This scarcity has left Fed officials working with limited visibility.
“What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down,” Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said in October.
The Fed itself remains split. Powell has noted that policymakers are seeing pressure from both sides of the central bank’s mandate. After the last rate cut, the Chairman dampened hopes for further easing in December.
“There were strongly different views about how to proceed in December. A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it,” he said.
If this happens, crypto markets could likely react bearishly in the short term. A hold would temporarily weigh on sentiment and delay any bullish momentum that a cut might have triggered.
Despite the risks, long-term trends may still benefit crypto markets. Reports say the Fed intends to buy $45 billion in Treasury bills a month beginning January 2026. This policy could boost financial system liquidity can drive investment into risk assets.
“This would inject massive liquidity into the markets. This only means one thing: QE is coming back. But this time they won’t call it QE,” Lark Davis stated.
Whether the Fed announces the widely expected 25-basis-point cut, surprises with a bigger reduction, or holds rates, its decision is likely to cause significant volatility in crypto markets. The subsequent press conference and forward guidance from Chair Powell will also play a key role, as traders focus on the outlook for future policy.
With deep roots in onchain privacy, Horizen has successfully migrated to Ethereum as a Layer-3 blockchain on Base for privacy-enabled and regulatory-ready applications.
Horizen has officially launched its mainnet as an EVM-native rollup on Base, marking its full transition from an independent proof-of-work blockchain to a privacy application-focused chain within the Ethereum ecosystem. The move positions Horizen as a high-performance infrastructure layer where developers can deploy Solidity-based applications while tapping into Base’s liquidity, developer ecosystem, and compliance-forward approach.
This milestone follows the July 2025 migration of ZEN, Horizen’s native token, from its original mainchain to Base as an ERC-20 asset. With its 21-million token cap preserved, ZEN now trades on decentralized exchanges such as Aerodrome and Uniswap, and legacy token holders can claim their migrated assets through Horizen’s dedicated portal. ZEN is currently available on Binance, Binance US, Coinbase, OKX, Bybit, Bitget & other major exchanges.
Launch partners include leading ecosystem infrastructure providers that enable developers to build robust apps on Horizen from day one: Caldera for rollup-as-a-service, LayerZero for omnichain interoperability, Stork for low-latency oracle feeds, Den for multisig wallet support, and Goldsky for indexing and data streaming.
In July, Horizen introduced a five-year developer funding program in partnership with Thrive Protocol allocating 1 million ZEN tokens (roughly $8.8 million). to support builders creating privacy-first onchain applications. As Horizen opens for business on Base, the initial set of available applications include Hubz VCE and Gamblor, with a robust and steadily expanding pipeline of projects going live shortly after mainnet, including private DeFi and business applications such as privacy-preserving payroll, verifiable online advertising, and loyalty & user engagement.
The shift to Base addresses a central challenge faced by many independent blockchains – limited liquidity and developer reach. As a Layer-3 blockchain, Horizen gains direct access to the EVM ecosystem and Base’s core infrastructure. Developers can now build on Horizen using familiar EVM tooling while benefiting from lower costs, faster finality, and inherited Ethereum-grade security.
By processing most transaction activity within its own network before batching and settling to Base, Horizen enables localized execution and maintains flexibility over gas economics, token policy, and application-layer logic, while relying on Base and Ethereum for final settlement.
From Independent L1 to Ethereum L3
Launched in 2017 as ZenCash, Horizen began as a Bitcoin-style proof-of-work chain with optional privacy features. Over the years, it expanded its technical foundation through Zendoo, a zero-knowledge-based sidechain protocol, and EON, an EVM sidechain that debuted in 2023. These combined experiences have all informed Horizen’s transition away from its legacy infrastructure and to the native EVM landscape.
Bringing Regulatory-Compliant Privacy to Base
Horizen’s next phase focuses on introducing privacy-centric applications and privacy-enhancing tools to the Base ecosystem. Developers will be able to implement selective disclosure for transfers, swaps, and on-chain identity features using standard Solidity frameworks, making privacy a practical option within Ethereum’s DeFi landscape. Through its 5-year, 100M ZEN token developer funding program in partnership with Thrive Protocol, builders are already deploying applications on Horizen.
The network will also integrate with zkVerify, Horizen Labs’ dedicated zero-knowledge proof-verification chain. Applications that depend on intensive zero-knowledge proof validation can offload that computation to zkVerify, which batches and returns compressed verification results to Horizen, cutting gas costs and latency for complex cryptographic operations.
A Familiar Environment for Developers
The new mainnet offers a fully EVM-compatible environment where teams can deploy Solidity contracts, integrate Base’s tools, and leverage the established OP Stack foundation. The combination of fast finality, low fees, and native integration with Base makes Horizen a strong fit for DeFi, SocialFi, gaming, and data-intensive applications that demand scale, flexibility, and privacy utility.
Roadmap
In conjunction with the mainnet launch, the first applications to go live on Horizen demonstrate its privacy-first approach to ecosystem development. Post-launch, ZEN staking will be reintroduced, enabling token holders to participate in network rewards through a new staking mechanism. Horizen Labs will release a builder preview of its Confidential Compute Environment, providing early access to developers building privacy-preserving applications.
In Q1 2026, the Confidential Compute Environment will launch, using Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) to isolate and encrypt computation directly on-chain. This environment will give developers a tool to deploy privacy-preserving applications without learning complex cryptography, thereby enabling secure, private app execution right onchain.
Horizen
Horizen is an EVM-native privacy-first ecosystem on Base, built to power practical, regulatory-compliant private execution for real onchain business activity. Designed for businesses and users that need confidentiality without sacrificing interoperability or compliance, Horizen offers a secure and auditable environment for privacy-centric applications and transactions, supported by an expanding ecosystem. The ZEN token anchors economic participation across Horizen, powering governance, utility, and long-term ecosystem alignment.
About Horizen Labs
Founded in 2019, Horizen Labs is a leading blockchain technology company specializing in zero-knowledge cryptography. Dedicated to scaling decentralized networks, Horizen Labs is elevating blockchain technology to unprecedented levels of efficiency. By focusing on developing next-gen, modular architectures, Horizen Labs is setting new standards for performance, security, and cost-effectiveness. Horizen Labs is trusted by industry giants such as Yuga Labs, Animoca Brands, and Offchain Labs. Additionally, it is the development company engaged by the ApeCoin DAO and Horizen DAO to develop leading projects such as ApeChain and Horizen. Horizen Labs is a globally distributed team with offices in Milan and New York City.
[VILNIUS, Lithuania, Dec. 9, 2025]BTCC, the world’s longest-serving cryptocurrency exchange, today announced the integration of its perpetual futures pairs on TradingView, a charting platform with over 100 million users globally. The integration enables traders to access BTCC’s 400+ futures pairs directly through TradingView’s charting and trading platform.
The partnership addresses our users’ growing demand for seamless trading experiences that combine execution capabilities with advanced market analysis. TradingView, which is recognized for its comprehensive and powerful market analysis features, provides traders with professional charting tools, customizable indicators, and real-time market data.
Through the integration, BTCC users can now react swiftly to market movements, refine their strategies, and execute perpetual futures trades within a single platform.
The integration comes at a time of significant growth for BTCC. The exchange previously announced its Q3 2025 Growth Report, where it recorded $1.15 trillion in trading volume during the quarter and currently offers more than 400 perpetual futures pairs, all of which are now accessible on TradingView.
This move builds on the exchange’s recent momentum, including its partnership with 2023 Defensive Player of the Year and 2x NBA All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr. as global brand ambassador.
“This integration combines TradingView’s analytical tools with BTCC’s range of perpetual futures pairs and deep liquidity,” said Marcus Chen, Product Manager at BTCC.
“Our focus is on equipping traders with the resources they need to execute their strategies effectively, and this collaboration reinforces our commitment to professional-grade derivatives trading experiences.”
Getting Started on TradingView
Users can connect their BTCC accounts to TradingView in three simple steps:
Step 1: On the TradingView platform, log in to your account. Then go to the Chart page and navigate to the Trading Panel section.
Step 2: Select BTCC from the broker list, then click “Connect”.
Step 3: Once connected, traders can instantly trade BTCC’s perpetual futures pairs across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and hundreds of other cryptocurrency pairs directly from the TradingView platform.
This TradingView integration marks another step in BTCC’s continued efforts to deliver a user-centric trading experience. As the industry’s longest-serving crypto exchange, BTCC remains focused on expanding access to professional tools while setting standards for platform reliability and performance.
About TradingView
TradingView is the world’s most popular charting platform and the industry’s forefront for financial visualization solutions. 100M+ traders worldwide use it as the go-to destination to chart, chat, and trade financial markets. TradingVIew’s product portfolio includes best-in-class charts, versatile commercial libraries, a social network, and many more tools for retail and business audiences.
About BTCC
Founded in 2011, BTCC is a leading global cryptocurrency exchange serving over 10 million users across 100+ countries. Partnered with 2023 Defensive Player of the Year and 2x NBA All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr. as global brand ambassador, BTCC delivers secure, accessible crypto trading services with an unmatched user experience.
Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts, warning that a key pillar of recent demand, corporate Bitcoin buying, is likely over.
The bank now believes future gains in Bitcoin will be driven by a single source: exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, a shift that could slow the pace of upside in the years ahead.
Bitcoin’s Pullback ‘Painful but Normal’
In a new note, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, said the bank is pushing back its timeline for Bitcoin reaching $500,000 and lowering its year-end price targets for 2026 through 2029.
“While the recent Bitcoin price decline has been rapid, we think it is within expected bounds. However, further corporate buying of Bitcoin is unlikely, as valuations no longer support it. This leaves ETF buying, which may be slower than earlier expected, to drive price gains from here. We lower our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and push out our $500,000 forecast to 2030. Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze,” Kendrick said.
Bitcoin’s recent price action has unsettled investors, but Standard Chartered argues the sell-off fits historical patterns rather than signalling a structural downturn.
Kendrick noted that Bitcoin has fallen around 36% from its all-time high on October 6, a decline comparable to other drawdowns seen since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“The recent price action in Bitcoin (BTC) has been challenging, but the decline, while rapid, falls within ‘normal’ expectations,” Kendrick stated, adding that similar pullbacks have occurred over the past two years.
The timing of the peak has fuelled renewed fears of a crypto winter, with Bitcoin topping roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, a pattern seen in past cycles.
“The timing of the recent losses, the 6 October high was reached 18 months after the April 2024 ‘halving’ of Bitcoin supply, has fed the narrative of a ‘crypto winter’,” Kendrick added.
“We do not share the view that the halving cycle is still valid. Rather, we think longer-term ETF buyers are a much more important price driver,” he noted.
Corporate Bitcoin Buying Losing Steam
The more concerning signal, according to Standard Chartered, is the apparent end of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by listed digital asset treasury companies (DATs).
Kendrick said valuations no longer justify further expansion by these firms, which have played an increasingly visible role in driving demand over the past year.
“That said, price action has forced us to recalibrate our Bitcoin price forecasts. Specifically, we think buying by Bitcoin digital asset treasury companies (DATs) is likely over, as valuations, as measured by mNAVs, the commonly used valuation metric for these companies, no longer support further Bitcoin DAT expansion,” he mentioned
While the bank does not expect widespread selling from these companies, it also does not expect them to underpin prices going forward.
“We expect a consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support,” Kendrick said.
ETF Inflows Will Be A Key Support
With corporate Bitcoin buying fading, Kendrick believes the next phase of Bitcoin’s price trajectory depends almost entirely on ETFs.
“As a result, we think that future Bitcoin price increases will effectively be driven by one leg only, ETF buying,” he remarked.
That shift has prompted Standard Chartered to delay its most bullish projections.
“We therefore lower our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and expect Bitcoin to reach our long-term price forecast of $500,000 only in 2030 (versus 2028 previously),” Kendrick highlighted.
Still, the bank maintains its long-term optimism, just on a longer timeline.
“We still think this target is attainable, as portfolio optimisation between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that global portfolios are underweight Bitcoin. Investment access and decision-making by investment committees take time, but we expect them to drive large Bitcoin gains eventually,” he added.
Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the former CEO of Binance, has debunked viral claims that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed for a staked Aster (ASTER) exchange-traded fund (ETF).
The link between Aster and CZ stems from CZ’s significant personal investment and public endorsement of the decentralized derivatives exchange, which has sparked massive price rallies and speculation in the past.
Did BlackRock File For An Aster ETF?
A social media post alleging BlackRock had filed for a staked ASTER ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission went viral on X (formerly Twitter) today. The post included what appeared to be an official S-1 registration document dated December 5, 2024, citing an “iShares Staked Aster Trust ETF” and listing BlackRock’s contact information.
The image spread quickly, leading to speculation about institutional moves regarding ASTER. However, it’s important to note that there is no evidence of such a registration in official SEC filings. The fabricated document closely imitated real SEC filings, making the forgery difficult to detect at first glance.
Still, a closer look at the image reveals it is photoshopped. The description in the document actually refers to the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF, a real filing BlackRock submitted on December 5. Furthermore, the asset manager has made it clear in the past that its current focus on crypto ETFs is limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
CZ also responded promptly to debunk the misinformation. He cautioned his followers that even established crypto opinion leaders can be deceived.
“Fake. Even big KOLs gets fooled once in a while. Aster doesn’t need these fake photoshopped pics to grow,” he wrote.
In November, CZ revealed that he had personally purchased about $2 million worth of Aster tokens as a long-term investment. This triggered a 30% surge in ASTER token’s price.
ASTER Price Slips Despite Buyback Program
Meanwhile, the ASTER token is facing market headwinds despite the project’s latest buyback effort. On December 8, the team announced that it would initiate an accelerated Stage 4 buyback program, increasing its daily purchases to approximately $4 million worth of tokens, up from the previous pace of around $3 million.
“This acceleration allows us to bring the accumulated Stage 4 fees since Nov 10 on-chain more quickly, providing more support during volatile conditions. Based on current fee levels, we estimate reaching steady-state execution in 8–10 days, after which daily Stage 4 buybacks will continue at 60–90% of the previous day’s revenue till the end of Stage 4,” Aster posted.
So far, the move has not translated into upward price momentum. ASTER fell nearly 4% over the past 24 hours, extending recent losses.
The Russell 2000 Index, which comprises approximately 2,000 small-cap companies, has long served as a barometer of investor appetite for growth and high-risk equities. Analysts quickly noticed its correlation with the crypto market.
When risk-on sentiment spreads into the crypto market, it can help push Bitcoin and altcoins higher. The details below illustrate how this dynamic unfolds.
Russell 2000 Flashes a Breakout Signal, Raising Hope for Crypto
If the S&P 500 represents large-cap blue-chip companies, the Russell 2000 focuses on small-cap stocks.
The index is not as famous as the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones. However, it remains important, especially for investors who seek higher risk. This risk appetite aligns closely with many crypto investors.
In December, the Russell 2000 recorded a major turning point when it broke above a long-term resistance level. This move often signals strong upside momentum.
The breakout is considered a clear risk-on signal. This suggests that capital is shifting back to riskier assets, which can serve as fuel for Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins.
The Bitcoin Vector — an institutional Bitcoin report published by Swissblock — noted that in late 2020, the Russell 2000 broke through new highs and later turned that level into support. Bitcoin surged 380% after that.
“Last time this setup appeared, BTC delivered over 390% upside. This time the structure is different, but we’re starting from an environment that precedes liquidity expansion. And when liquidity turns, risk assets take the lead,” Bitcoin Vector stated.
Negentropic, co—founder of Glassnode, added that the Russell 2000 breakout signals a broad return of investors to risk assets.
“Russell 2000 is the biggest indicator for Altseason, and it’s about to hit a new all-time high,” Ash Crypto said.
By comparing the altcoin market capitalization with that of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF — a fund that tracks US small-cap equities — analyst Cryptocium highlighted a correlation. Altcoin market cap (OTHERS) often surges when the iShares Russell 2000 ETF breaks above its previous all-time high.
Altcoin Market Cap vs iShares Russell 2000 ETF. Source: Cryptocium
This pattern has appeared twice: once in 2017 and again in 2021. It now suggests a potential altcoin boom in 2026.
But a Deeper Look Reveals Internal Weakness
A closer look inside the Russell 2000 rally shows a different picture.
Analyst Duality Research noted that, although the index rose in 2025, small-cap ETFs within the index still recorded net outflows of approximately $19.5 billion this year. This contrasts sharply with past rallies, which have typically been accompanied by strong ETF inflows.
The Russell 2000 is up more than 13% year-to-date and over 40% off its April lows, yet small-cap ETFs have still recorded roughly $20 billion in net outflows this year. pic.twitter.com/QEXQ6qIcsn
This perspective weakens the bullish argument for a tight correlation between the Russell 2000 and the crypto market. If risk-on sentiment fails to last and the breakout turns into a false move, that negative shift may spread and extend the bearish mood in the crypto market.
Stablecoin issuers continue to mint new tokens such as USDT and USDC. This expansion is often compared to the spark that ignites major market rallies. However, data shows that the market caps of leading stablecoins have increased for months while the broader crypto market has not grown proportionally.
The following report outlines several reasons behind this mismatch, based on recent data and industry analyses.
3 Reasons Behind the Decoupling Between Stablecoin Growth and the Crypto Market
CoinGecko data shows that the market caps of USDT and USDC reached new highs in December, at $185 billion and $78 billion, respectively.
Both stablecoins have experienced steady growth since the start of the year. By December, Circle and Tether continued to issue aggressively. The latest report from on-chain tracker Lookonchain noted that Tether minted $1 billion and Circle added another $500 million.
Analysts often describe this capital as “dry powder” for the market. Yet the question remains: where has it actually gone?
More Stablecoins Flow Into Derivatives Exchanges Than Spot Exchanges
CryptoQuant data indicate that USDT (ERC-20) on derivatives exchanges has increased consistently since early 2025, rising from below $40 billion to nearly $60 billion.
Meanwhile, USDT (ERC-20) on spot exchanges has been trending downward. It currently sits near yearly lows.
USDC on spot exchanges has also dropped sharply in recent months, falling from $6 billion to $3 billion.
This data reflects a shift in trader behavior. Many prefer short-term opportunities with leverage rather than long-term spot accumulation. This shift makes it harder for altcoin prices to gain upward momentum.
Stablecoins Now Serve Many Purposes Beyond Crypto Investing
Another reason stems from the broader utility of stablecoins. The issuance by Tether and Circle does not solely reflect internal demand for cryptocurrencies. It also reflects demand from the global finance ecosystem.
A new IMF report highlights the widespread use of stablecoins such as USDT for cross-border remittances.
The chart shows that cross-border flows involving USDT and USDC reached approximately $170 billion in 2025.
“Stablecoins could enable faster and cheaper payments, particularly across borders and for remittances, where traditional systems are often slow and costly,” the IMF noted.
As a result, even though supply increases, a substantial portion of capital is absorbed into real-world applications rather than speculation.
Investor Caution Slows Capital Rotation
A third factor is cautious investor sentiment.
A recent Matrixport report describes the current market conditions as lacking retail participation and exhibiting low trading volume. Sentiment indicators remain in “fear” and “extreme fear” territory.
“Simply put, without volume, enthusiasm cannot compound, and without enthusiasm, volume will not return, a classic crypto chicken-and-egg standoff,” Matrixport reported.
This sentiment pushes investors to hold stablecoins instead of deploying them into Bitcoin or altcoins.
Historical data reinforces this view. A comparison of Bitcoin’s price and the market caps of USDT and USDC reveals that, in the first half of 2022, stablecoin supply continued to rise even after the market had entered a bear phase. In late 2022, stablecoin supply dropped sharply as many investors exited the market.
An increase in stablecoin market caps does not automatically translate into higher Bitcoin or altcoin prices. The impact depends heavily on investor sentiment, capital flows, and the broader use cases driving stablecoin demand.
[Abu Dhabi, UAE] Investors, founders, and ecosystem leaders came together for Capital Gathering F1 Abu Dhabi edition – the only high-tech and AI-focused evening of Abu Dhabi’s Formula 1 weekend, where the real conversations happened off the conference floor. BeInCrypto joined as a media partner for Capital Gathering.
Hosted on a private rooftop close to Yas Marina Circuit, Capital Gathering brought together a curated mix of VCs, family offices, and founders across AI, web3, gaming, fintech, and deep tech in Abu Dhabi – the region’s home to some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds and asset managers.
Capital Gathering was co-hosted with key ecosystem partners: NAPKIN, an ADGM-based M&A platform rolling up high-growth digital disruptors toward $500M in revenue and an IPO by 2027, serving brands like Netflix, Nike, Coca-Cola, and P&G; IVPAY, which enables crypto payments for businesses with automatic crypto-to-fiat conversion through a licensed exchange in the UAE; CryptoRobotics, an automated trading platform and gateway to top crypto exchanges for algorithmic traders, operating since 2018; and RACECRAFT.
“Abu Dhabi is no longer just a pit stop; it’s where racing, technology, and capital come together,” said George Zhuravskiy, racing driver and founder of RACECRAFT.
“At Racecraft, we make motorsport more accessible and data-driven through simulation and coaching, and Capital Gathering brought that same energy to founders and investors building what’s next.”
The main event was followed by the Capital Gathering Afterparty, which opened its doors to an extended circle of guests, keeping conversations and connections going late into the night and reinforcing Abu Dhabi’s role as a hub where global capital meets frontier innovation.
Bitcoin’s recent price action shows continued weakness as the asset struggles to find direction amid muted macro signals, presenting a bullish-neutral prediction.
The lack of momentum has kept BTC drifting downward for several days, but the Federal Open Market Committee’s expected 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday could shift sentiment. Whether this becomes a catalyst depends heavily on how short-term holders behave.
Bitcoin Holders Might Present Some Challenge
The STH to LTH Supply Ratio recently rose from 18.3% to 18.5%, breaking above the 17.6% upper band. This signals a growing presence of short-term holders within Bitcoin’s supply mix.
Their presence increases speculative activity, which can boost liquidity but also create sharper intraday swings. The shift highlights a market poised for volatility if conditions change quickly.
This higher ratio also suggests that STHs hold greater influence over Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory. Their tendency to sell when in profit has historically capped recoveries. If the FOMC rate decision triggers a rally, STH behavior will determine whether the momentum sustains or fades.
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Bitcoin’s Percent Supply in Profit has increased from 66.5% to 67.3%, a modest 1.2% gain. While upward movement is positive, the metric remains far below the 98.4% high band typically seen in strong bull phases. This shows that a significant portion of supply is still underwater, reflecting a cautious environment rather than euphoric strength.
Such subdued profitability aligns with early-stage accumulation behavior. Investors appear selective and patient, waiting for stronger macro cues before committing. If the FOMC cut boosts risk appetite, this profitability gap leaves room for expansion and stronger follow-through.
Bitcoin’s price is at $90,399 at the time of writing, sitting just below a downtrend that has persisted for one and a half months. BTC is attempting to flip $90,400 into a support level, which would mark the first step toward reversing the trend.
If macro conditions align and rate cuts revive broader market optimism, BTC could rebound sharply. A clean bounce from $90,400 may drive a retest of $95,000, and breaking that resistance would open a clear path toward the long-anticipated $100,000 level, proving Bitcoin’s price prediction true.
However, if short-term holders sell into strength, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain upward pressure. A rejection from $95,000 or failure to break the downtrend could send BTC back toward $86,822, invalidating the bullish scenario.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum (ETH), has doubled down on its acquisition of ETH in December, highlighting confidence in the asset.
The renewed buying comes despite a tough environment for Ethereum. Rising exchange inflows and ongoing exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows point to short-term pressure across the market.
BitMine Scoops Up 138,452 ETH in a Week, Now Controls 3.2% of Supply
This accounts for over 3.2% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. Furthermore, it puts BitMine two-thirds of the way toward its goal to control 5% of ETH’s supply.
Since adopting ETH as a reserve asset, BitMine has continued to make large-scale purchases. Between June 30 and October 5, BitMine accumulated 2.83 million ETH. Since October 5, it has added another 1.03 million ETH to its holdings.
Ethereum’s weakness throughout the fourth quarter makes BitMine’s steady accumulation even more notable. Since early October, ETH has shed about 24.8% of its value, reflecting persistent downward pressure.
December has offered a small break from that trend. The price has climbed more than 4% since the start of the month, and with it have climbed BitMine’s ETH purchases.
According to BitMine Chairman Tom Lee, the company’s accelerated purchasing activity reflects its confidence that ETH will likely see gains in the coming months, supported by several key catalysts.
These include the Fusaka upgrade, which was activated last week and delivers meaningful improvements to Ethereum’s scalability, security, and overall network efficiency. BitMine also points to the broader macro backdrop, with the Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening and potentially introducing another interest rate cut tomorrow.
Together, these developments form the basis for the company’s view that market conditions could turn more supportive for ETH after weeks of volatility.
“We are now more than 8 weeks past the October 10th liquidation shock event, a sufficient length of time to allow crypto to again trade on forward fundamentals,” Lee added.
Market Conditions Point to Near-Term Volatility
Despite this, on-chain data signals caution. CryptoOnchain noted that Ethereum exchange netflow to Binance has surged. The exchange received 162,084 ETH on December 5, 2025. This was the largest single-day inflow of ETH to the exchange since May 2023.
Large deposits on exchanges often suggest impending sell pressure, since investors typically transfer tokens to platforms before liquidating.
“Given the magnitude of this inflow, market participants should remain cautious. A supply shock of this size, if executed as market orders, could lead to heightened volatility or a short-term price correction,” the analyst stated.
Furthermore, Ethereum exchange-traded funds are also signaling weakened demand. The ETFs experienced a record $1.4 billion in net outflows in November 2025, marking the largest monthly withdrawal on record.
The trend has continued into December. According to SoSoValue, an additional $65.59 million exited ETH-focused ETFs in the first week of the month.
“Historically, ETF flow reversals tell you more about liquidity pressure than about long term fundamentals. When redemptions spike, it’s usually a sign that broader risk sentiment is cracking, not that the asset itself broke. If ETF outflows continue, near term price action stays choppy as liquidity gets drained at the edges,” Milk Road posted.
The ongoing divergence between direct accumulation and ETF redemptions highlights a market split, with retail and institutional players following diverging strategies regarding Ethereum’s outlook.
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