Bitcoin’s recent pullback below $85,000 briefly suggested renewed accumulation among large investors. Instead, on-chain data shows a different picture forming beneath the surface. 

While price has stabilized above key support, the underlying behavior points to balance restructuring rather than fresh capital entering the market.

Bitcoin Holders Are Not Too Bullish

Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC recently showed an increase, initially signaling potential whale accumulation. However, Glassnode’s senior researcher clarified that this rise reflects wallet reshuffling rather than new buying. These movements do not represent additional demand entering the Bitcoin market.

Wallet reshuffling occurs when large entities split or consolidate balances across addresses. The process helps manage custody, internal risk, or accounting needs. Ownership does not change. Coinbase recently reshuffled about 640,000 BTC internally, offering a clear example of this behavior influencing cohort data.

Because reshuffling does not introduce new capital, its impact on price is zero. The activity can distort accumulation metrics, leading to false bullish signals. 

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Macro indicators add further caution. The MVRV Long/Short Difference currently shows profits concentrated among short-term Bitcoin holders rather than long-term holders. This imbalance raises downside risk, as short-term holders historically react quickly to price fluctuations.

When profits sit with short-term participants, selling pressure often increases during periods of uncertainty. These holders are more likely to secure gains at the first sign of weakness. This dynamic can suppress upside momentum and prolong consolidation across key price ranges.

BTC Price May See Some Struggle

Bitcoin is trading near $87,108 at the time of writing, holding above the $86,361 support level. While this zone provides near-term stability, recovery remains fragile. BTC must reclaim higher levels before signaling a meaningful trend reversal.

Short-term holders continue to pose a risk to upside progress. If they begin taking profits, Bitcoin could remain range-bound below $88,210. A failure to maintain this structure could result in another test of $84,698, a level already visited during recent volatility.

A stronger recovery requires Bitcoin to convincingly breach $88,210. A push toward $90,401 would signal improving momentum. Achieving this move depends on renewed investor support, which may emerge as value-oriented buyers respond to current price discounts.

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XRP remains under pressure after extending its downtrend and slipping well below the $2.00 level. The pullback has dampened short-term momentum despite pockets of investor optimism. 

That confidence has yet to translate into stronger network activity, limiting XRP’s ability to stage a meaningful price recovery.

XRP Holders Are Doing Their Part

HODL Waves data shows growing conviction among longer-term XRP holders. Since the start of the month, wallets holding XRP for one to two years increased their supply share by 3%. This cohort now controls roughly 11% of circulating XRP.

The shift reflects mid-term holders maturing into long-term holders. Such behavior often signals confidence during periods of price weakness. These investors appear willing to endure volatility, anticipating a future recovery rather than reacting to short-term price swings.

However, this also indicates that the mid-term holders are underwater. Hence, they are forced to hold XRP tokens.

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Nonetheless, macro indicators suggest challenges persist. The network value to transactions ratio shows elevated readings. Rising NVT levels often suggest valuation is outpacing on-chain utility.

The indicator recently reached a three-month high, pointing to potential overheating. XRP’s transaction activity has not kept pace with market expectations. This imbalance weakens recovery attempts, as price advances lack confirmation from network usage and sustained demand.

XRP Price May Be Safe From A Crash

XRP trades near $1.86 at the time of writing, remaining well below the $2.00 mark lost last week. The decline followed a failed attempt to break out of a month-long downtrend earlier this month. Momentum remains fragile under current conditions.

The token is holding above the $1.85 support level, which has been tested previously. XRP may consolidate below $1.94 if selling pressure eases. However, worsening sentiment could push the price toward $1.79, extending short-term losses.

A recovery scenario depends on improving network activity and broader market stability. A break above $1.94 would be the first step toward reclaiming $2.00. Flipping $2.02 into support could drive XRP toward $2.20, invalidating the bearish trend.

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Pump.fun has suffered a sharp price decline, pushing PUMP to a five-month low. The drop reflects sustained capital outflows from holders who see limited near-term value in the token. 

Broader market weakness has worsened the situation, with Bitcoin’s instability adding pressure to already fragile sentiment.

Pump.fun Holders Move To Sell

On-chain indicators point to a decisive loss of confidence among PUMP holders. The Chaikin Money Flow sits deep below the zero line, confirming aggressive capital withdrawals. Furthermore, this reading shows investors are exiting positions rather than positioning for a recovery.

The CMF has now reached an all-time low, marking the largest outflows in PUMP’s trading history. Such extreme readings typically reflect bearish conviction. Additionally, persistent selling reduces liquidity support, making short-term stabilization difficult and keeping downside risks elevated.

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PUMP’s macro outlook remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance. Its correlation with Bitcoin recently rebounded to 0.78 after a brief decline. This indicates PUMP is once again closely tracking Bitcoin’s price movements.

This relationship is problematic given Bitcoin’s uncertainty near the $86,000 level. Besides, weakness in the broader market often amplifies losses in smaller tokens. Thus, if Bitcoin declines further, PUMP is likely to follow, extending losses for remaining holders.

PUMP Price May See Further Correction

PUMP is trading near $0.002031 at the time of writing, its lowest level in five months. As it stands, the token has fallen by more than 33.8% in just one week. Accelerating losses reflect worsening sentiment and the absence of consistent buying interest.

Continued holder exits could push PUMP toward the $0.001917 support. This level is critical for near-term stability. Additionally, the breakdown below it may open the door to $0.001711, reinforcing the bearish trend and intensifying downside volatility.

A recovery scenario depends on improved market conditions and renewed inflows of capital. Reclaiming $0.002123 as support would be an early signal of stabilization. Furthermore, if buying interest returns, PUMP could advance toward $0.002428, invalidating the bearish thesis and restoring short-term confidence.

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