XRP price is nearing a critical decision point as 2025 approaches its final stretch. Price remains weak on higher timeframes, almost 16% down month-on-month. But cracks are starting to appear in selling pressure. Momentum indicators and on-chain data now suggest that sellers are losing control, even though price has not yet confirmed a reversal.

The setup is no longer about guessing a rally. It is about whether fading sell pressure is enough to push the XRP price through a known supply wall. And that wall still matters.

Sellers Are Losing Control?

Early signs of a rebound are showing up on the 12-hour chart, where trend shifts often appear first.

Between November 21 and December 18, the XRP price made a lower low. During the same period, the RSI made a higher low. RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures momentum. When price falls, but RSI improves, it signals bullish divergence.

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This pattern suggests that, although the XRP price continued to decline, the selling momentum weakened. Sellers were still active, but they were no longer able to push momentum lower with the same force.

On-chain data supports this shift.

The XRP HODLer Net Position Change tracks whether long-term holders are adding or selling coins. On December 11, net selling peaked at roughly 216.9 million XRP. By December 18, that figure dropped to about 132.2 million XRP.

That is a decline of roughly 39% in daily selling pressure.

In simple terms, sellers are still present, but far fewer coins are being pushed onto the market. This aligns with the RSI divergence and strengthens the case that downside pressure is fading.

This does not guarantee a rally. But it does mean the market is no longer in full control of sellers.

Why One XRP Price Level Still Decides the Outcome

Even if selling pressure continues to ease, XRP still faces a major structural test overhead.

On-chain cost basis data shows a heavy supply cluster between $1.96 and $1.97. Around 1.82 billion XRP were accumulated in this zone. Cost basis data tracks where holders bought their coins. When price returns to those levels, many holders reach break-even and tend to sell.

This makes the $1.96–$1.97 range a powerful resistance zone.

The price chart confirms this. The XRP price has repeatedly failed to hold above $1.96, and rebounds have stalled near the same area. If a bounce develops from current levels, this is where sellers are most likely to reappear.

For the rebound to become a genuine trend shift, the XRP price must post a clean daily close above $1.96. Without that confirmation, any upside move risks becoming another failed rally.

On the downside, $1.76 remains the key invalidation level. A break below it would suggest that seller control is returning, opening the door to deeper losses.

The takeaway is clear. Selling pressure has dropped sharply, and momentum is improving. But until XRP clears $1.96 with conviction, the market remains trapped between weakening sellers and a stubborn supply wall.

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Pi Coin price is showing early signs of support after a sharp mid-December drop. Since the December 16 low, Pi Coin has bounced over 8%, helped by steady exchange-side buying.

But while buying pressure has picked up, not all capital groups are convinced yet. The result is a market caught between support and hesitation, setting up a likely range move rather than a clean breakout. Right now, Pi Coin sits at a crossroads where inflows are improving, but conviction remains uneven.

Buying Pressure Builds as Capital Flows Turn Supportive

Exchange wallet data shows clear net buying over the past 24 hours.

Across major centralized exchanges, Pi Coin recorded a net outflow of roughly 414,420 PI, meaning more tokens left exchanges than entered. That usually points to buying rather than selling.

At current prices, this net buying represents approximately $83,000 in accumulation over a short period. Despite being a small exchange-based purchase, it is significant given PI’s seller-driven history.

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Flow-based momentum supports this shift.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has risen by over 40% from its recent lows. CMF tracks whether big money is flowing into or out of an asset. Rising CMF alongside price stabilization suggests that large buyers are absorbing supply rather than chasing price.

The combined rise in buying pressure could have helped Pi Coin recover nearly 8% from its December 16 low, pushing the price back above the $0.19 line.

CMF is also nearing a breakout from a descending trendline. A clean break above that line, followed by a move above the zero level, would strengthen the case that this bounce has real backing. So far, the signals say buying is real, but still measured.

Why Pi Coin Price Likely Stays Range-Bound

Despite improving flows, smart money behavior remains cautious. The Smart Money Index continues to trend lower and has not confirmed the recent price rebound. That indicates that informed, longer-term buyers are not yet aggressively stepping in.

When buying pressure rises without smart money confirmation, the price often stabilizes instead of trending immediately.

That matches Pi Coin’s current structure.

The key support zone sits near $0.19, which has held multiple tests. A clean break below it would reopen downside risk toward $0.15.

On the upside, $0.21 acts as the first barrier. Without a strong push above that level, rallies are likely to stall.

This creates a roughly 10% range, with about 5% upside and 5% downside from current prices.

In short, Pi Coin is being supported by steady buying and improving money flow, but the lack of smart money participation suggests consolidation rather than continuation. Until that changes, Pi Coin is more likely to trade sideways than trend hard in either direction.

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