The Santa Rally—Wall Street’s beloved year-end tradition—has found an eager audience among Chinese crypto Twitter’s most followed analysts.

Far from dismissing it as Western-market folklore, key opinion leaders in the Chinese-speaking community are treating the final trading days of 2025 as a critical signal of what lies ahead in 2026.

Santa Rally More Than Seasonal Noise

Phyrex, one of the most cited macro analysts in Chinese crypto circles, argues that the Santa Rally is not merely a statistical curiosity. “It’s more like a barometer of market risk appetite,” he wrote. “If markets manage to rise as expected from Christmas through New Year—without fresh macro catalysts—it confirms that investors are still willing to allocate to risk assets, setting the emotional foundation for next year’s pricing.”

The flip side carries weight, too. A failed rally, Phyrex warns, often signals that risk appetite has not recovered, leaving markets vulnerable to weakness or choppy trading well into January and beyond.

The analyst points to several mechanical factors that typically support year-end gains. Tax-loss harvesting wraps up by mid-December, freeing capital to rotate back into equities. Institutional desks go quiet for the holidays, thinning out volumes and allowing modest buying pressure to move indices higher. Year-end bonuses and automatic 401(k) contributions add passive bid support.

Michael Chao, a US-focused markets commentator popular on Chinese Twitter, highlighted the historical odds: since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time during the Santa Rally window, posting an average gain of 1.55%.

But Risks Loom Large

Not everyone is popping champagne early. Cryptojiejie noted that Bitcoin and Ethereum global volumes have shrunk to 2025 lows, calling current conditions “garbage time” for traders. She advised breakout-focused traders to step back and enjoy the holidays until liquidity returns.

Macro headwinds add to the caution. Zhou Financial wrote that the Bank of Japan’s December rate hike to 0.75% has raised concerns about the unwinding of the yen carry trade, while the Federal Reserve’s hawkish 25-basis-point rate cut—paired with a dot plot signaling only two cuts through 2026—disappointed markets that had expected more accommodation.

Phyrex framed the tension bluntly: “If the market still can’t form an effective rally under seasonal tailwinds and gradually recovering liquidity, it likely means the current high-rate environment’s pressure on the economy has already overwhelmed the sentiment boost from holiday factors.”

The 2026 Preview

For Phyrex, this year’s Santa Rally carries outsized significance. He sees it as effectively a preview of Q1 2026 expectations. The logic is straightforward: if investors refuse to bid up risk assets even when seasonal patterns, sentiment vacuums, and returning liquidity all align in their favor, something deeper may be broken.

The intense focus on Wall Street may partly reflect a lack of domestic options. Earlier this month, seven major Chinese financial industry associations issued a joint risk warning—the most comprehensive crypto crackdown since the 2021 ban that drove all exchanges out of the country.

The statement explicitly prohibited real-world asset (RWA) tokenization for the first time, alongside stablecoins, airdrops, and mining. With regulators sealing off virtually every on-ramp, Chinese crypto investors have little choice but to watch global markets from the sidelines.

As Chinese crypto Twitter watches Wall Street just as closely as anyone else, all eyes are on whether Santa shows up.

The post Chinese Crypto Twitter Reads Santa Rally as a Litmus Test for 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

A massive power outage hit San Francisco on Saturday afternoon, leaving 130,000 homes and businesses without electricity. The incident forced residents to face technology’s fundamental vulnerabilities. Caused by a fire at a PG&E substation, the blackout cut off access to digital wallets and cryptocurrency exchanges for thousands of users.

The event highlights how, despite the resilience of decentralized blockchain networks, practical crypto usability still relies on local electricity and internet infrastructure.

San Francisco’s Power Crisis: Scale and Impact

The outage began at 1:09 pm, affecting about one-third of PG&E customers in San Francisco. The disruption focused on the Richmond District and spread across the city. By 11 p.m., power had been restored to roughly 95,000 customers, but nearly 18,000 remained without electricity Sunday afternoon.

The incident disrupted city transit, halted Waymo robotaxis mid-ride, and forced the closure of many restaurants and shops. The scale caught many off guard. As one observer noted on social media, nearly 30% of the city lost power overnight—no storm, no warning, no clear accountability.

Blockchain Networks Endure Local Outages

The blackout offers a timely reminder: even decentralized technologies remain tethered to centralized infrastructure.

Cryptocurrency networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum operate on distributed ledgers maintained by thousands of nodes worldwide. A regional blackout, even one affecting a major tech hub like San Francisco, does not halt the blockchain itself. Transactions continue to be validated, blocks continue to be added, and user assets remain safely recorded on-chain.

In short, your crypto doesn’t disappear when the lights go out.

However, the practical reality is less reassuring. Without electricity and internet access, affected users cannot access wallets, execute trades, or complete payments. Crypto-accepting merchants face the same limitation—no power means no point-of-sale systems.

Mining operations, which require substantial and continuous power, halt immediately during outages. If a blackout affects a region with significant hash rate concentration, network validation could slow temporarily.

For those mid-transaction when power fails, the outcome depends on timing. Unconfirmed transactions remain in the mempool and will be processed once connectivity returns. Confirmed transactions are immutable and unaffected.

Exchange Infrastructure Keeps Crypto Trading 24/7

Major crypto exchanges have developed strategies for uninterrupted trading during power disruptions. Based on industry analysis, exchanges use layered defenses, including uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), backup generators for extended outages, and redundant data centers with automatic failover protocols.

If a main facility fails, trading shifts instantly to another healthy region. Data replication between centers ensures zero data loss and maintains transaction integrity during crises.

Asset security is vital during blackouts. Most holdings are in cold storage, offline, and far from network risks. Hot wallets—used for current trading—are limited and protected by multi-signature protocols and withdrawal limits. Regular drills and continuity plans ensure exchanges continue to operate during extended failures.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation has documented infrastructure standards for crypto operations. A white paper notes that cryptocurrency facilities require complex internal infrastructure, including UPS systems and generators, to ensure resilience.

These efforts underscore the divide between decentralized network design and the traditional infrastructure required for practical access. However, while blockchains survive regional outages, the services that connect users depend on power and connectivity investments.

The Hardware Wallet Paradox

Security-conscious holders often store assets in hardware wallets, keeping private keys offline and protected from network-based attacks. This remains sound practice. But the blackout reveals an uncomfortable truth: hardware wallets are secure, yet without power, users cannot access them either.

The device itself is safe. The assets are intact. But the owner sitting in a dark apartment cannot verify balances, sign transactions, or move funds to respond to market conditions. Security and accessibility exist in tension during infrastructure failures.

Offline seed phrase backups ensure eventual recovery, but they offer no help in the immediate crisis. For crypto to function as a reliable financial tool, users must plan for scenarios where even their most secure storage becomes temporarily unreachable.

Decentralized, But Not Independent

The San Francisco outage underscores a fundamental tension in cryptocurrency’s value proposition. Decentralization protects the network from single points of failure at the protocol level. But end-user access still depends entirely on electricity, internet connectivity, and functioning local infrastructure—the same dependencies as traditional digital payments.

Some projects are exploring alternatives. Blockstream‘s satellite network broadcasts Bitcoin blockchain data globally, enabling node synchronization without traditional internet access. Such solutions remain niche but point toward greater infrastructure independence.

What This Means for Users

The incident carries practical lessons for crypto holders. Diversified backup plans matter: mobile hotspots, portable battery packs, and knowing which local areas might retain power. When evaluating exchanges, infrastructure redundancy and disaster recovery capabilities should be considered alongside fees and token listings.

But perhaps the most honest takeaway is this: blockchain networks survive blackouts, but user access does not. Until that gap closes, crypto remains a fair-weather financial tool—resilient in theory, unreachable when it matters most.

The post San Francisco Blackout Reveals Crypto’s Dependence on Power Infrastructure appeared first on BeInCrypto.