The US ETF market achieved a historic “triple crown” in 2025, setting records in inflows ($1.4 trillion), new launches (1,100+), and trading volume ($57.9 trillion). This is the first time all three metrics hit records simultaneously since 2021.
Three consecutive years of double-digit S&P 500 gains powered the rally. But Wall Street is starting to ask: what comes next?
The Ghost of 2022
That precedent carries a warning. The year following the 2021 triple crown saw the S&P 500 plunge 19% amid the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes. The tech-driven rally that fueled ETF inflows reversed sharply, with both inflows and launches slowing in 2022.
The parallels are hard to ignore. In 2021, exuberance around tech stocks drove record demand. In 2025, AI spending has dominated while skepticism is mounting. Since October, the S&P 500 has traded sideways as Wall Street questions the returns on Big Tech’s AI capex.
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, warned: “Because of how perfect this year seemed to be for ETFs, you kind of want to brace for it.” He suggested a “reality check” could come in 2026 through market volatility or leveraged ETF blowups—risks already demonstrated by GraniteShares’ 3x Short AMD ETP, which lost 88.9% in a single day and was liquidated in October.
The Crypto ETF Rotation
Within the broader ETF boom, a striking divergence is playing out in cryptocurrency funds.
BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $25.4 billion despite a -9.6% return—the only negative performer among the top 10 flow leaders. Balchunas called it “Boomers putting on a HODL clinic.” But the tide turned after Bitcoin’s 30% drop from its October high. IBIT recorded five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $2.7 billion. Ethereum ETFs followed with seven straight days of outflows in December, totaling $685 million.
The opposite emerged in newly launched altcoin ETFs. US spot XRP ETFs, debuting November 13, recorded 28 consecutive trading days of net inflows—unmatched by any crypto ETF at launch. Cumulative inflows reached $1.14 billion with zero outflow days. Still, the daily pace—mostly $10-50 million—pales compared to Bitcoin ETFs, which regularly drew $500 million or more in their early days.
Solana ETFs attracted $750 million despite SOL’s 53% price decline—though unlike XRP, they experienced several outflow days in late November and early December.
BTC
ETH
XRP
SOL
YTD Inflows
$25.4B
$10.3B
$1.14B
$750M
Dec 1-24
-$629M
-$512M
+$470M
+$132M
Notable
5-week outflows
7-day outflows
28-day inflow streak
Inflows despite -53%
Source: BeInCrypto
December crystallized this rotation. Through December 24, Bitcoin ETFs shed $629 million, while Ethereum lost $512 million; XRP added $470 million, and Solana gained $132 million.
Structural Shift or Temporary Adjustment?
Those arguing for structural change point to regulatory clarity—XRP’s SEC lawsuit concluded in August with a $125 million settlement, classifying it as a non-security. Utility narratives are also gaining traction: XRP’s cross-border payments and Solana’s DeFi ecosystem offer applications beyond “digital gold.”
Skeptics caution that XRP and SOL’s consistent inflows may reflect a “honeymoon effect” typical of new ETF launches. Despite record ETF inflows, XRP remains 50% below its July peak, and SOL has dropped 53% since October—a disconnect some attribute to year-end profit-taking and to whales distributing holdings offsetting institutional demand.
2026 Outlook
With dozens of crypto ETF applications still awaiting SEC review, more altcoin products are expected in 2026.
The ETF market’s “perfect year” will be remembered alongside correction warnings. But the rotation within crypto ETFs suggests institutional investors are becoming selective—moving beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum toward assets with regulatory clarity and real-world utility. Whether this trend continues will be a key indicator for the broader market’s direction.
NVIDIA has agreed to pay approximately $20 billion to acquire assets from artificial intelligence chip startup Groq, marking the company’s largest transaction on record and continuing its strategy of absorbing potential competitors before they can challenge its market dominance.
The chipmaker’s latest licensing deal mirrors a similar transaction just three months ago, reinforcing the narrative that decentralized AI infrastructure may offer the only alternative to Nvidia’s growing dominance.
Threefold Premium in Three Months with Trump Jr. Connection
The deal closed just three months after Groq raised $750 million at a $6.9 billion valuation—a round that included BlackRock, Samsung, Cisco, and 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. serves as a partner. Nvidia is acquiring all of the company’s assets substantially, except its cloud computing business, though Groq framed the transaction as a “non-exclusive licensing agreement.”
Groq CEO Jonathan Ross, a former Google engineer who helped create the search giant’s Tensor Processing Unit, will join Nvidia along with president Sunny Madra and other senior executives. The startup will continue operating independently under CFO Simon Edwards as its new chief executive.
A Repeating Playbook
The Groq transaction follows a pattern Nvidia established just three months earlier. In September, the company paid over $900 million to hire Enfabrica’s CEO and employees while licensing the startup’s technology. Both deals use licensing structures rather than outright acquisitions, potentially avoiding the antitrust scrutiny that blocked Nvidia’s $40 billion bid for Arm Holdings in 2022.
The Kobeissi Letter summarized Nvidia’s approach bluntly: “We will buy you before you can compete with us.”
Groq’s Language Processing Unit uses on-chip SRAM rather than external DRAM, enabling what the company claims is up to 10x better energy efficiency. This architecture excels at real-time inference but limits model size—a tradeoff Nvidia can now explore within its broader ecosystem.
The timing is notable. Google recently unveiled its seventh-generation TPU, codenamed Ironwood, and released Gemini 3, trained entirely on TPUs, to top benchmark rankings. Nvidia responded on X: “We’re delighted by Google’s success… NVIDIA is a generation ahead of the industry—it’s the only platform that runs every AI model.” When incumbents start issuing such reassurance statements, competitive pressure is clearly mounting.
Implications for Decentralized AI
While the deal has no direct impact on cryptocurrency markets, it reinforces the narrative driving decentralized AI computing projects. Platforms like io.net position themselves as alternatives to centralized AI infrastructure.
“People can put their own supply onto a network, whether that’s data centers or yourself with your laptop, contributing your available GPU power, and getting fairly compensated for it using tokenomics,” Jack Collier, io.net’s Chief Growth Officer, told BeInCrypto. The platform claims enterprise clients, including Leonardo.ai and UC Berkeley, have achieved significant cost savings.
However, the gap between narrative and reality remains wide. Nvidia’s acquisition of Groq’s low-latency technology further extends its technical lead, making it harder for any alternative to offer competitive performance.
The transaction also raises questions about independent AI chip development. Cerebras Systems, another Nvidia competitor preparing an IPO, may eventually face similar pressure. Whether it can remain independent or succumb to Nvidia’s financial gravity remains to be seen.
Canton’s CC token emerged as the top gainer in the crypto market on Christmas Eve, rising more than 25% in 24 hours despite thin holiday liquidity and broadly bearish sentiment. The rally pushed CC ahead of major assets and privacy coins.
The move was not driven by retail hype or seasonal speculation. Instead, it reflected a growing institutional narrative around real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and regulatory clarity—two themes that have gained traction into year-end.
Top Gainers in the Crypto Market on Christmas Eve 2025. Source: CoinGecko
Institutional Tokenization Fuels Canton Token Rally
At the center of the rally is Canton Network, a privacy-enabled Layer-1 blockchain designed specifically for regulated financial institutions.
Unlike public DeFi chains, Canton allows institutions to transact on-chain while keeping sensitive data private. This is a key requirement for banks, clearing houses, and asset managers.
Canton’s utility token, CC, is used for transaction fees, network security, and validator incentives. Its value is tied less to retail activity and more to institutional usage.
That’s why price moves are highly sensitive to infrastructure-level developments.
Momentum accelerated after DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation)confirmed progress on tokenizing DTC-custodied US Treasury securities on the Canton Network.
Minting and using U.S. Treasuries on Canton is coming in 2026, enabling tokenized USTs to be exchanged in near-real-time with stablecoins and other digital assets – all with the privacy and controls regulated markets demand.
The initiative follows a regulatory green light from the US SEC, which issued a non-action letter allowing DTCC to proceed with live tokenization infrastructure.
That development marked one of the clearest regulatory endorsements yet for on-chain Treasuries.
As a result, markets began repricing Canton as core infrastructure rather than a speculative blockchain project.
Earlier in December, Canton also deepened its RWA stack through a partnership with RedStone, which became its primary oracle provider.
The integration enables real-time, compliant price feeds for tokenized assets, bridging institutional markets with DeFi without compromising privacy.
Together, these developments position Canton as a settlement layer for trillions of dollars in traditional financial assets.
Industry estimates place more than $300 billion in daily transaction volume already flowing through applications built on the network.
Canton CC Token Weekly Price Chart. Source: CoinGecko
Importantly, the rally came during a low-liquidity holiday session. That context amplified the move but also highlighted where capital is concentrating ahead of 2026: compliant tokenization infrastructure.
While broader crypto markets remain cautious, CC’s performance underscored a growing divergence.
I’ve come to realize $CC is useless. Also it seems to be inflationary with never ending supply.
Is what I’m hearing often in comments. Let’s clarify.@CantonNetwork has implemented something called BME (Burn-Mint-Equilibrium).
There’s always something to be worried about in the crypto space. Whether a failing exchange or changes in a regulatory environment, crypto has largely sailed strongly over the past year, despite the latest bearish sentiment.
However, some still see a challenge on the horizon: quantum computing.
Is Quantum Computing the Doomsday for Crypto?
Quantum computing technology can be thousands of times faster than conventional computing. Some early quantum tests have solved equations that would have taken a traditional computer thousands years.
On paper, that sounds bad for cryptocurrencies. In theory, a quantum computer would be able to crack SHA256, the protocol protecting Bitcoin’s ledger.
Bitcoin & Quantum Risk
Debating the potential risks quantum computers could pose to Bitcoin and how Bitcoin could mitigate that risk is nothing new
In 2008, several leading cryptographers, including Daniel Bernstein, published "Post-Quantum Cryptography"
While headlines often frame quantum computing and Bitcoin as adversaries locked in an inevitable showdown, a more nuanced perspective reveals these technologies as potential partners in advancing digital security and computational efficiency.
In fact, as early crypto investor and enthusiast Charlie Shrem commented in early December at Moneyshow:
“Quantum computing and crypto are complementary technologies.”
In short, rather than spelling doom for cryptocurrency, quantum computing could catalyze Bitcoin’s evolution into a more robust, secure, and scalable system.
The Opportunity For Crypto as Quantum Develops
Bitcoin’s open-source nature fosters collaboration among cryptographers, developers, and academics, ensuring that solutions can be rigorously tested and deployed.
The challenge offered by quantum computing, rather than being purely destructive, serves as an impetus for strengthening Bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations.
The Bitcoin Quantum Leap: Quantum computing won’t break Bitcoin—it will harden it. The network upgrades, active coins migrate, lost coins stay frozen. Security goes up. Supply comes down. Bitcoin grows stronger.
The crypto community is actively developing quantum-resistant signature schemes. That includes Lamport signatures, which would be implemented through backward-compatible soft forks similar to the successful 2021 Taproot upgrade.
This evolutionary approach demonstrates how quantum computing’s emergence drives innovation rather than obsolescence. And as technologies continue to innovate, they continue to thrive – good news for Bitcoin.
The transition to post-quantum cryptography represents more than defensive positioning.
“Quantum computing utiizes fundamental principles of nature, which in turn make it likely to support, rather than work against bitcoin,” states Shrem.
That’s because algorithms like CRYSTALS-Kyber provide new security frameworks that benefit the entire digital ecosystem.
Cryptocurrencies from Bitcoin on down can adopt these advances, transforming from merely quantum-vulnerable to fundamentally quantum-proof, setting new standards for digital asset security.
Meanwhile, researchers have built and tested a blockchain that can only be mined using quantum computers. This marks the first real-world application of quantum supremacy in blockchain technology.
This prototype, tested across four geographically distributed quantum processors, introduces “proof of quantum work” as an alternative to traditional proof-of-work systems.
Discussions around the quantum threat in Bitcoin peaked December 2024.
Unlike Bitcoin’s energy-intensive mining, which consumed 176 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2024, quantum blockchain systems achieve higher mining efficiency through quantum mechanics.
Quantum computing offers potential solutions to blockchain challenges by providing significant speedup in transaction processing.
For instance, while Bitcoin’s consensus mechanisms are secure, they can be slow and resource-intensive. Quantum computers could optimize consensus algorithms, validate transactions more efficiently, and address scalability issues that have long plagued blockchain networks.
This computational power could enable Bitcoin to process thousands more transactions per second without compromising decentralization.
Quantum-enhanced blockchain systems leverage quantum key distribution and quantum random number generation to achieve superior security, preventing data breaches and unauthorized access.
In other words, rather than replacing Bitcoin’s security, quantum technologies can augment it.
Quantum key distribution offers theoretically unbreakable encryption for securing Bitcoin wallets and transactions, while quantum random number generators ensure the creation of truly unpredictable private keys.
The Quantum Computing Threat
Every few weeks the same tired narrative resurfaces: “Quantum computing is going to break Bitcoin.”
Every time it spreads, it’s the same routine – loud voices, shallow understanding, and zero connection to the actual science.
The convergence of these technologies creates opportunities for hybrid systems. That could include quantum tokens to provide an additional privacy layer within a specialized blockchain application.
This complementary approach allows Bitcoin to incorporate quantum advantages while maintaining its proven decentralized structure.
The quantum challenge has united the cryptocurrency community in unprecedented ways.
Blockchain analytics providers are preparing to support quantum-resistant address formats and transaction types to ensure continuity of compliance and quantum security monitoring capabilities.
This coordination extends beyond cryptocurrencies themselves. It includes exchanges, wallet providers, research institutions, and regulatory bodies working together to ensure the entire ecosystem transitions smoothly.
The blockchain industry is proactively addressing quantum threats with quantum-resistant tokens and post-quantum cryptography, with projects leading the charge in lattice-based cryptography and hash-based methods.
This competitive innovation benefits crypto as a whole. That’s because successful quantum-resistant implementations in other projects help successful crypto projects evolve. The shared challenge creates a rising tide that lifts all boats.
“We haven’t even scratched the surface yet of what’s possible,” notes Shrem. “Quancum computing is turning into a new kind of computer, and we need to think about what that fully means.”
Quantum’s Path Forward for Crypto
The relationship between quantum computing and cryptocurrency need not be antagonistic.
Quantum blockchains could open the doors for applications in fields requiring high-level security and computational power. That includes secure voting systems, supply chain management, and healthcare data sharing.
Bitcoin’s decentralized governance and adaptive nature position it well to incorporate quantum advantages.
As quantum computing matures, all cryptocurrencies can integrate quantum-resistant cryptography, leverage quantum-enhanced mining efficiency, and adopt quantum security protocols.
The result would be a cryptocurrency ecosystem that’s more secure, efficient, and scalable than ever before—not despite quantum computing, but because of it.
This symbiotic relationship represents not the end of Bitcoin, but rather the beginning of its quantum-powered future.
Americans are feeling the pressure of higher living costs, but they are not stepping away from crypto.
A new holiday spending survey from Visa Inc. shows a growing appetite for digital assets as gifts, even as inflation continues to limit disposable income and keep consumers cautious. The contrast highlights a deeper shift in how households adapt when money feels tight.
Inflation Is Cooling, but Budgets Still Feel Tight
Inflation has eased from its post-pandemic peak, but prices remain elevated across essentials such as housing, food, insurance, and utilities.
Wages have broadly kept pace with inflation, preventing a sharp drop in purchasing power. Still, the margin is thin.
After covering necessities, many households have less flexibility for investing or discretionary spending than they did before 2022.
US energy inflation is accelerating:
CPI energy prices jumped +4.2% YoY in November, the fastest pace since February 2023.
This marks the 2nd-consecutive acceleration, following a +2.8% YoY increase in September.
This environment has not stopped spending outright. Instead, it has changed behavior. Consumers shop earlier, compare prices more aggressively, and rely on technology to stretch each dollar further.
Financial confidence remains fragile, but economic participation continues. That caution shows up clearly in how people spend—and what they choose to buy.
Visa’s December survey reveals that 28% of Americans would be excited to receive crypto as a holiday or Christmas gift, a figure that jumps to 45% among Gen Z.
The appeal is not about luxury. It reflects a preference for assets that feel flexible, digital-first, and potentially long-term in value.
At the same time, 47% of US shoppers reported using AI tools to assist with holiday purchases, primarily to find gift ideas and compare prices. This signals a consumer mindset focused on optimization rather than excess.
Could crypto replace holiday cash? More than one-in-four US adults, and nearly half of Gen-Z adults, say they would be excited to receive cryptocurrency as a gift, according to a survey from Visa and Morning Consult https://t.co/xhU2SfJpchpic.twitter.com/RUtS7aKSMP
Younger shoppers lead the shift. Gen Z respondents show higher adoption of crypto payments, digital wallets, biometric authentication, and cross-border shopping than any other age group.
For them, crypto fits naturally into a broader digital financial identity.
The data suggests crypto gifting is not crowding out essentials. Instead, it replaces traditional discretionary items at a time when consumers remain selective.
What This Says About the US Economy
The combination of easing inflation and persistent budget pressure points to a cautious but stable economy.
Americans are not retreating, but they are adapting. Spending continues, yet it leans toward tools and assets that promise efficiency, optionality, or future upside.
Crypto’s growing acceptance as a gift—despite tighter disposable income—signals cultural normalization rather than speculative exuberance.
It also helps explain why digital assets continue to attract interest even during periods of economic restraint.
For markets, the message is clear. Inflation may be cooling, but confidence has not fully returned.
In that gap, technology and alternative assets are filling a role that traditional consumption no longer does.
Americans may feel stretched, but they are still betting—carefully—on the future.
India’s Enforcement Directorate (ED) has carried out coordinated raids at 21 locations across Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Delhi as part of a widening probe into a large-scale crypto scam that allegedly operated for nearly a decade.
The searches were conducted on December 18 under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA). It targeted residential and office premises linked to 4th Bloc Consultants and its associates.
India’s Largest Crypto Bust Yet?
Authorities say the group ran fake crypto investment platforms that duped both Indian and foreign investors by promising unusually high returns.
According to the ED, the case originated from a police FIR and intelligence inputs from the Karnataka State Police.
Investigators allege the accused created professional-looking websites that closely mimicked legitimate global crypto trading platforms, complete with dashboards, account balances, and transaction histories.
BREAKING: 🇮🇳 ED raids 21 locations across Karnataka, Maharashtra and Delhi in a major crypto investment fraud case.
• Movable and immovable properties in India and abroad identified
Early investors were paid small returns to gain trust. Later, they were encouraged to invest larger sums and recruit new participants through referral bonuses.
As the scheme expanded, promoters relied heavily on social media platforms. This included Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Telegram to attract victims.
Investigators say the proceeds of crime were laundered through a complex web of crypto wallets, undisclosed foreign bank accounts, shell companies, and hawala channels.
Scammers also moved the funds via peer-to-peer crypto transfers before being converted into cash or parked in bank accounts.
During the raids, the ED identified several crypto wallet addresses allegedly controlled by the accused, along with movable and immovable assets acquired in India and abroad using illicit funds.
Authorities also flagged multiple foreign entities used to conceal the money trail.
Notably, officials believe the operation dates back to at least 2015. The scammers evolved over time to evade detection as scrutiny of crypto markets increased.
Dogecoin price has remained under pressure. The token is down around 2% over the past 24 hours and more than 12% over the past month. Price action has weakened, but the decline is slowing.
While the chart structure still leans bearish, on-chain behavior suggests the breakdown may not be a done deal yet. The next few sessions will decide whether DOGE slips into a deeper decline or stabilizes near current levels.
Dogecoin Price Pressure Builds as Short-Term Supply Exits
Dogecoin is trading near the lower boundary of a declining price structure, with a bear flag forming. That keeps downside risk active, especially if support near $0.124-$0.120 fails. However, what stands out is how speculative supply has behaved as price drifted lower.
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The 1-week-to-1-month-hold cohort, typically the most aggressive swing-trading group, has sharply reduced exposure, per the HODL Waves metric. This metric classifies hodlers by time.
On November 29, this cohort controlled roughly 7.73% of Dogecoin’s supply. As of December 23, that share has dropped to about 2.76%. That is a steep reduction in speculative positioning over a short period.
This matters because these holders tend to amplify downside when they panic sell. Their exit often reduces forced selling pressure near support.
Long-Term Holders Quietly Add as Coin Activity Drops
At the same time speculative supply is shrinking, longer-term holders are showing early signs of accumulation. The 1-year to 2-year holder cohort has increased its share of Dogecoin supply from around 21.84% to 22.34%. The increase is small, but the signal matters.
These holders typically add only when they believe downside risk is starting to fade.
Coin activity across the network, measured via the spent coins metric, supports that view. Spent coins activity has fallen sharply. The spent coins age band metric dropped from roughly 251.97 million DOGE to about 94.34 million DOGE. That represents a decline of more than 60% in coin movement.
Lower coin activity possibly means fewer holders are rushing to move or sell tokens. Historically, similar drops in activity have preceded short-term relief rallies in Dogecoin. Earlier in December, a similar slowdown preceded a rally from near $0.132 to $0.151, a near 15% move, within three days.
This does not guarantee a rally, but it shows selling aggression is cooling rather than accelerating.
Key Dogecoin Price Levels That Decide Breakdown or Recovery
The technical picture now hinges on a narrow price range. The $0.120 level remains the most important near-term support. A decisive daily close below it would expose the Dogecoin price to deeper downside toward the $0.112 zone and potentially lower if momentum builds.
On the upside, the recovery case depends on reclaiming nearby resistance. A move back above $0.133 would signal that selling pressure is easing. A stronger reclaim of $0.138 would confirm that buyers are regaining control and that the recent decline was corrective rather than the start of a larger breakdown.
In simple terms, Dogecoin is at a crossroads. Price structure still carries risk, but on-chain data shows speculative supply leaving, long-term holders slowly stepping in, and overall coin activity drying up. If support holds, those factors can help stabilize the price. If it fails, the breakdown remains valid.
Jim Cramer’s latest Bitcoin stance has flipped to 100% bearish, according to sentiment-tracking data from Unbias.
The shift immediately caught the attention of crypto traders, not because Cramer commands Bitcoin’s direction, but because his calls have become an informal sentiment indicator inside the market.
Inverse Cramer Narrative In Full Flow?
Data shows that Cramer’s last three Bitcoin predictions were all bearish, pushing his near-term outlook into what Unbias categorizes as “perma-bear” territory.
Jim Cramer Bitcoin Prediction. Source: Unbias
Historically, such moments tend to spark discussion across crypto social channels, where Cramer’s commentary often triggers the well-known “Inverse Cramer” narrative.
Since the October 10 crash, price action has remained choppy and defensive.
Analysts broadly describe the market as range-bound, with resistance near $90,000–$93,000 and structural support closer to $81,000–$85,000.
The failure to reclaim higher levels before year-end has weighed on short-term sentiment.
All Signs Point to a Bitcoin Bear Market?
Market indicators reinforce that cautious tone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently slipped into “Extreme Fear”, reflecting risk aversion rather than panic buying.
At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded consecutive daily outflows into the Christmas week, signaling reduced institutional appetite as investors lock in profits and rebalance portfolios ahead of year-end.
US Bitcoin ETFs Continue to Bleed. Source: SoSoValue
Against that backdrop, Cramer’s bearish shift fits the prevailing mood — but it also explains why his views remain so visible in Bitcoin circles.
As the long-time host of Mad Money, Jim Cramer has become a cultural reference point for crypto traders.
His emphatic, short-term calls often clash with Bitcoin’s cycle-driven nature, turning his commentary into a meme-driven contrarian signal rather than conventional analysis.
That dynamic has persisted through multiple market cycles. When Cramer grows confident in one direction, crypto traders often treat it as a sentiment extreme rather than a forecast.
Looking ahead to the New Year’s week, analysts expect thin liquidity and heightened volatility. Bitcoin’s direction may hinge on whether ETF flows stabilize and whether price can reclaim the $90,000 level after options-related positioning clears.
Until then, Cramer’s 100% bearish read may say less about Bitcoin’s fundamentals — and more about how cautious the market feels heading into 2026.
The Christmas week is known for joy, celebration, and all things festive, and in recent history, an Xmas-themed crypto token. While these tokens are often expected to rally around the holiday, such moves occur far less frequently than anticipated, leaving many investors vulnerable to short-lived hype and potential losses.
In line with the same, BeInCrypto has analysed three such Christmas crypto tokens that the investors should stay away from in 2025.
SANTA HAT (SANTAHAT)
SANTA HAT previously demonstrated the risks tied to seasonal crypto tokens. After launch, the token surged 739% before collapsing 98.85% within three weeks, well before Christmas. The sharp reversal erased gains and highlighted how holiday-themed hype often fails to sustain long-term price appreciation.
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Momentum briefly returned during August and September, but selling pressure resumed in early October. Since then, SANTA HAT has plunged 88.7%, hitting a five-month low. Current price action suggests further downside, with a likely move toward the $0.00002502 support. A breakdown there risks a near-total loss.
Despite more than 21,100 holders and locked liquidity, fundamentals have not translated into price stability. Historical performance remains the dominant signal. Past cycles show repeated failures to recover, reinforcing a bearish outlook for SANTA HAT despite its structurally sound on-chain mechanics.
Rizzmas (RIZZMAS)
RIZZMAS illustrates the risks tied to Christmas-themed crypto tokens. Last year, the token surged 2,384% ahead of December before collapsing 93.6% by Christmas. The pattern reflects speculative hype rather than sustainable demand, leaving late investors exposed to sharp losses during seasonal reversals.
Over the past month, RIZZMAS has shed 72% of its earlier gains, despite reaching a yearly high of $0.00002258. Current price action signals continued weakness. Market structure suggests further downside, with the token at risk of losing nearly all remaining value in the coming sessions.
A prudent approach favors caution. Seasonal tokens may appear attractive or fundamentally sound, yet often lack real utility or long-term growth drivers. Historical performance shows repeated boom-and-bust cycles, making capital preservation more important than chasing short-lived thematic rallies.
GigaMas (GIGAMAS)
GIGAMAS represents a newer example of seasonal crypto tokens failing to sustain value. Launched less than two months ago, the Christmas-themed crypto token surged 325% during its initial rally before collapsing 75%. It now trades near $0.00001831, reflecting a rapid loss of speculative momentum.
Recovery prospects appear extremely limited. The technical structure shows weak demand and persistent selling pressure. GIGAMAS is likely to break below the $0.00001524 support, with further downside toward $0.00001000. A move through these levels could erase nearly all remaining value.
This trend is critical for GIGAMAS’ roughly 2,000 holders to recognize. Holiday-themed tokens lack durable utility and long-term adoption. Historical performance suggests these assets behave like speculative traps, with sharp collapses typically accelerating as Christmas approaches.
Bitcoin has largely ignored what should have been supportive macro signals. US CPI cooled to 2.7% in December, strengthening rate-cut expectations, yet Bitcoin failed to respond. Instead of attracting fresh capital, the price stalled while money rotated elsewhere.
That disconnect is why the Bitcoin bear market discussion is resurfacing.
Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, recently warned that Bitcoin may have already ended its latest four-year cycle in October, both in price and time. The on-chain and market data since then increasingly support that view.
Data Signals Suggest Bitcoin May Already Be in a Bear Market
Multiple independent indicators now point to the same conclusion: capital is retreating, conviction holders are selling, and Bitcoin is absorbing risk without real demand.
Stablecoin Inflows Have Collapsed Since the Cycle Peak
Stablecoin inflows often act as dry powder for crypto rallies. That fuel has vanished.
Total exchange inflows for ERC-20 stablecoins peaked at around 10.2 billion on August 14. By December 24, inflows had fallen to roughly 1.06 billion, a drop of nearly 90%.
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That August inflow peak closely preceded Bitcoin’s October high above $125,000, the same period Timmer identified as the likely cycle top.
While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt
Since then, fresh capital has failed to return, reinforcing the idea that distribution replaced accumulation after the peak.
Long-Term Holders Have Turned Aggressive Sellers
Conviction holders are behaving differently after October.
Bitcoin long-term holder net position change flipped negative shortly after the cycle high. Selling accelerated from roughly 16,500 BTC per day in late October to around 279,000 BTC recently. That is an increase of more than 1,500% in daily distribution pressure.
This aligns directly with Timmer’s thesis that the four-year halving cycle phase likely ended in October. Long-term holders appear to agree, reducing exposure rather than defending price.
Bitcoin Dominance Is Rising, But Not for Bullish Reasons
Bitcoin dominance has climbed back toward 57–59%, but this is not a risk-on signal.
After the softer CPI print, capital did not rotate into Bitcoin. Instead, it flowed into traditional hedges. Over the past year, silver has rallied by over 120%, while gold is up roughly 65%. At the same time, broader crypto markets have lagged badly.
If you invested $10,000 in each asset at the start of 2025, you’d have:
This shift reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s rising dominance is not being driven by fresh risk appetite, but by capital retreating into relative safety within crypto.
That view is echoed by an exclusive market comment shared with BeInCrypto by Ray Youssef, founder and CEO of NoOnes, who highlighted why gold has led the 2025 debasement trade while Bitcoin remains range-bound.
“While gold may clearly be winning the 2025 debasement trade on price performance, the comparison masks a more nuanced market reality. Gold’s recent run to new all-time highs and 67% YTD gains reflect classical defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market environment defined by fiscal excess, geopolitical strain, and macro policy uncertainty. Increased central bank accumulation, a softer dollar, and persistent inflation risks have reinforced gold’s role as the market’s preferred defensive asset,” he said.
Youssef added that Bitcoin’s behavior this year has diverged sharply from the digital-gold narrative.
“Bitcoin, by contrast, has recently failed to deliver on the hedge narrative. The asset has not traded like digital gold in 2025, owing to its heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. BTC’s upside is now tied to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity, and risk sentiment, rather than to monetary debasement alone,” he highlighted.
Mega-Whale Addresses Are Quietly Declining
Large holders are also stepping back.
The number of Bitcoin addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC has fallen from 92 in early December to 88. That decline came alongside falling prices, not accumulation.
These addresses often represent institutional-scale players. Their reduction adds another layer of confirmation that smart money is not positioning aggressively for upside here.
Bitcoin Remains Below a Critical Long-Term Moving Average
This moving average acts as both technical and psychological support. Failure to reclaim it suggests the market has shifted from trend continuation to regime risk. If price remains below this level, historical precedent points toward deeper downside zones near the traders’ realized price band around $72,000.
Bitcoin is below its 365-day moving average ($102K), a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.
If price fails to reclaim it, data suggest the next support lies near $72K, the Traders’ minimum realized price band. pic.twitter.com/VySVce5NY9
Taken together, these signals support Timmer’s warning that Bitcoin may already be in a bear-market phase or closing in on that, even if the price has not fully reflected it yet. Capital has dried up, conviction holders are selling, dominance is rising defensively, and macro relief is being ignored.
That said, not all long-term cycle supports have broken yet. Those counter-signals, and the exact levels that decide whether this becomes a full bear market or a prolonged transition, come next.
Why the Bitcoin Bear Market Case Is Not Fully Settled Yet
Despite the growing evidence pointing toward a Bitcoin bear market, two long-term cycle indicators still argue against a confirmed structural breakdown.
Also, one reason the Bitcoin bear market case remains unresolved is how markets are interpreting the CPI slowdown. While cooling inflation typically benefits risk assets, the current response suggests investors are prioritizing safety and liquidity over growth.
That does not mean the CPI signal is wrong. It may simply be early, with Bitcoin historically reacting later than traditional hedges once liquidity expectations fully translate into capital flows.
These and the indicators we would discuss next do not negate the bearish signals discussed above. But they explain why this phase may still resolve as a prolonged transition rather than a full bear cycle.
Pi Cycle Top Has Not Triggered
One of Bitcoin’s most reliable cycle indicators, the Pi Cycle Top, has not flashed a peak signal. The indicator compares the 111-day moving average with the 350-day moving average multiplied by two.
Historically, when these two lines cross, Bitcoin has been near or at major cycle tops.
As of now, the two lines remain widely separated. That suggests Bitcoin is not in an overheated or euphoric phase, even after the October high.
This contradicts the idea raised by Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, who noted that the October peak near $125,000 fit prior cycle timing.
In past cycles, true bear markets began after clear Pi Cycle confirmations. That signal is still absent.
The 2-Year SMA Remains the Line That Matters Most
The second and more immediate counter-argument is structural. Bitcoin is still trading near its 2-year simple moving average, which sits around $82,800.
This level has repeatedly acted as Bitcoin’s long-term trend divider. Monthly closes above the 2-year SMA have historically marked cycle survival.
Sustained closes below it have marked deep bear phases.
So far, Bitcoin has not confirmed a monthly close beneath this line.
That makes December’s monthly close critical. If Bitcoin holds above $82,800 into year-end, the market likely remains in a late-cycle transition rather than a confirmed Bitcoin bear market.
🚨 Bitcoin in a critical zone on the 2Y SMA Multiplier
The 2Y SMA Multiplier is one of Bitcoin’s most respected cycle charts — and the current moment demands attention.
📍 Today, BTC is trading very close to the 2Y SMA, currently at $82,800.
The bearish framework also has clear invalidation levels. A reclaim of the 365-day moving average near $102,000 would materially weaken the bear market thesis. That would align with Tom Lee’s year-end Bitcoin price prediction.
That level marked the start of the 2022 bear market when it broke, and would signal renewed trend strength if recovered.
In simple terms:
Above $82,800 into December close: transition phase remains intact
Below $82,800 on a monthly basis: bear market risk escalates
Back above $102,000: bullish structure begins rebuilding
For now, Bitcoin sits between conviction selling and long-term cycle support. The market is not confirming strength, but it is not fully breaking either.
The December close will decide which narrative carries into 2026.
PIPPIN has surged sharply in recent sessions, reigniting interest across the market. The altcoin’s latest rally has pushed its price within reach of its all-time high, raising expectations of another record.
However, as momentum builds, concerns around profit-taking and near-term selling pressure are also increasing.
PIPPIN Whales Could Shift The Outcome
On-chain flow data signals growing caution among retail participants. The Chaikin Money Flow has slipped below the zero line, entering negative territory. This shift indicates that PIPPIN outflows are beginning to outweigh inflows, reflecting early stages of distribution rather than accumulation.
The rise in outflows appears linked to investors locking in profits after the recent rally. When prices approach record levels, traders often reduce exposure to manage risk. This behavior can slow momentum, even during otherwise bullish market phases.
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Despite signs of retail caution, whale activity remains supportive. Wallets holding more than $1 million worth of PIPPIN increased their holdings by 3.57% over the past 24 hours. Total whale-controlled supply now stands at approximately 425.34 million PIPPIN.
Large holders often influence short-term price trends due to their capital scale. Continued accumulation by whales suggests confidence in further upside. Their behavior can counterbalance retail selling, helping maintain price structure during volatile periods.
PIPPIN trades near $0.497 at the time of writing, marking a 38% gain over the past 24 hours. The token now sits less than 7% below its all-time high of $0.530. Momentum remains strong, supported by sustained buying interest from large holders.
A successful breakout above $0.530 would likely attract additional speculative demand. Clearing the all-time high could open the path toward $0.600. Sustained volume above resistance would support further price discovery and the formation of new highs.
Downside risk remains if selling pressure accelerates. A failure to hold current levels could push PIPPIN below the $0.434 support. A deeper pullback toward $0.366 would invalidate the bullish thesis, shifting focus back to consolidation rather than expansion.
Zcash has shown mixed price action in recent sessions, alternating between short pullbacks and brief recoveries. Volatility remains elevated, yet the broader technical structure continues to lean bullish.
Despite hesitation in the spot market, ZEC’s macro trend suggests the potential for a sustained rally if key conditions align.
Zcash Holders To The Rescue
On-chain data indicates growing confidence among Zcash’s largest holders. Wallets ranked within the top 100 addresses increased their combined ZEC holdings by 2.7% over the past 24 hours. This accumulation occurred while the price declined nearly 6%, signaling strategic buying rather than reactive selling.
Such behavior reflects long-term optimism. Large holders often accumulate during drawdowns when they anticipate higher future prices. Their actions suggest expectations of recovery remain intact, providing a supportive demand base that could stabilize ZEC during periods of broader market uncertainty.
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Technical indicators support this constructive outlook. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is currently signaling the formation of a squeeze. This setup often precedes sharp price movement when volatility expands after a period of compression.
Importantly, the histogram shows bullish momentum remains active. If the squeeze releases while momentum stays positive, the resulting volatility could favor an upside move for ZEC. Broader market stability will play a crucial role in determining whether this breakout materializes.
ZEC is forming an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern that often resolves higher. The structure suggests growing buying pressure against a horizontal resistance. Based on the pattern’s measured move, a breakout could deliver a 50% rally, targeting the $670 level.
A rebound from the $403 support would strengthen this setup. Holding this level could allow Zcash to breach the $442 resistance. A successful move above $442 would likely trigger a breakout from the triangle, opening the path toward the $500 resistance. Clearing that level would confirm a broader bullish rally.
Downside risks remain if momentum fails. A breakdown below the $403 support would invalidate the ascending triangle. In that scenario, ZEC could fall toward the $340 level, erasing much of this month’s gains and negating the bullish thesis.
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