Crypto markets are approaching 2026 after a year defined by sharp volatility, fresh all-time highs, profit-taking, and a visible phase of maturation. 

Bitcoin strengthened its role as an institutional reserve asset, while Ethereum and XRP entered corrective phases following strong prior trends marked by uncertainty and rapid price swings.

On the macro side, the US Federal Reserve began its first rate cuts, labor market data showed early signs of cooling, and capital flows into digital assets became increasingly selective. 

As a result, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP now sit near technically significant levels. The central question for 2026 is whether global liquidity expands or pauses—and whether that liquidity flows decisively into cryptoassets.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis and 2026 Outlook

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $126,000 in 2025, driven largely by sustained institutional adoption. Corporations and sovereign entities continued to add BTC to their reserves. 

MicroStrategy accumulated roughly 660,645 BTC, while El Salvador increased its holdings to 7,502 BTC. 

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs kept absorbing supply, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a long-term macro asset.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s broader bullish structure remains intact despite losing the ascending channel that guided price action from March 2024 to November 2025.

Bank of Japan is about to hike rates with 0.25% on December 19

Bitcoin dumped the last 3 times the BoJ hiked interest rates:

March 2024 → -27%
July 2024 → -30%
January 2025 → -30% pic.twitter.com/GNjHyUIV3d

— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) December 15, 2025

After setting its latest ATH, BTC corrected into a key demand zone near $80,000.

Resistance around $110,000 continues to cap upside attempts. Trading volume has slowed, a pattern typically associated with corrective phases rather than trend reversals.

Bullish Scenario

A strong reaction from the accumulated demand zone near $75,000 could set the stage for a renewed long-term advance toward $150,000–$170,000. 

A sustained breakout above the $100,000–$115,000 resistance cluster would confirm trend continuation, supported by renewed retail and institutional participation.

Range-Bound Scenario

If upside momentum remains limited, Bitcoin may spend much of 2026 trading between $70,000 and $110,000. 

This would represent a prolonged accumulation phase within the broader cycle, marked by choppy price action and false breakouts while the market waits for clearer monetary catalysts.

Bearish Scenario

A decisive loss of the $75,000–$80,000 demand zone would open the door to a deeper correction. 

In that case, $60,000–$40,000 could act as a rebalancing zone without invalidating Bitcoin’s long-term macro structure.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis and 2026 Outlook

Ethereum experienced a pivotal year in 2025, reaching a new all-time high near $4,955. 

Network upgrades such as Pectra and Fusaka improved scalability and efficiency, while spot Ethereum ETFs began gaining traction. Staking activity and DeFi usage continued to underpin Ethereum’s fundamental value.

On the weekly chart, ETH remains within a broad long-term ascending channel. After printing new highs in August 2025, price corrected toward a relatively weak demand zone around $2,900.

While the long-term structure remains constructive, momentum has slowed compared to previous expansion phases. Short- and medium-term structures still lean bearish.

Ethereum whales on Binance are bidding the dip hard 🐋

57K ETH (~$159M) in buy orders are stacked just below the current price. pic.twitter.com/8GeVUmsskU

— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) December 18, 2025

Bullish Scenario

A sustained recovery could allow Ethereum to target $5,700 and potentially $6,100, based on historical cycle extensions. 

A clean breakout above the channel resistance near $5,200 would reinforce Ethereum’s position as a leading asset in 2026.

Consolidation Scenario

If demand remains moderate, ETH could consolidate between $4,300 and $2,200. This range would signal equilibrium between buyers and sellers, framing 2026 as a transitional year rather than a breakout phase.

Bearish Scenario

A breakdown below the channel support would expose Ethereum to a deeper move toward $2,250–$1,600, an area that aligns with historical demand levels critical to preserving the long-term structure.

XRP Price Analysis and 2026 Outlook

Ripple ends 2025 with significantly improved regulatory clarity following a favorable resolution to its legal dispute with the SEC. 

This outcome revived institutional interest and reopened discussions around XRP ETF products, improving its standing within traditional financial markets. 

Large-scale institutional adoption could trigger a demand shock capable of pushing XRP to new highs.

Technically, XRP is in a corrective phase after a strong rally that peaked near $3.60 mid-year. Price has since pulled back into key demand zones, while multiple supply areas continue to limit short-term rebounds. 

This behavior aligns with a broader trend-regression phase.

Bullish Scenario

If 2026 proves favorable for Ripple’s institutional adoption, XRP could advance toward $3.83–$4.53. To achieve this, price must reclaim the $2.40 level and sustain buying volume, supported by positive regulatory developments.

Range-Bound Scenario

Should uncertainty persist, XRP may trade sideways between $3.00 and $1.60. While this reflects hesitation around banking adoption, it would also represent a healthy consolidation phase ahead of a future cycle.

Bearish Scenario

A breakdown below key supports could send XRP toward $1.20–$0.90. Such a move would imply the loss of critical levels, including the psychological $1.60 mark, alongside a cooling of speculative interest.

Final Take: Will 2026 Be a Lost Year or a Launchpad?

Price projections for 2026 point to a market balancing on a narrow edge. Bitcoin continues to display the strongest structural resilience, while Ethereum and XRP remain more dependent on specific catalysts. 

Upside potential exists, but it requires clear technical confirmation and fundamental follow-through.

One trend is undeniable: crypto markets are transitioning into a more mature phase. Both gains and drawdowns have become more controlled, with volatility compressing compared to earlier cycles.

A renewed bull run will depend on a more accommodative macro environment, deeper institutional adoption, and consistent regulatory clarity. 

If those forces align, 2026 may ultimately be remembered not as a stagnant year, but as the foundation for the next wave of all-time highs.

The post Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP: Which Crypto Will Shine the Most in 2026? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within the recent consolidation phase, hovering around $90,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious December rate cut and its implications for risk assets. 

BTC price action approaches a key descending trendline that could determine its next directional move. Meanwhile, institutional flows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs showed mild inflows, and Strategy added more BTC to its treasury reserve.

Fed’s Policy Tone Triggers Consolidation in Bitcoin

Bitcoin price started the week on a positive note, extending its weekend recovery during the first half of the week and holding above $92,600 on Tuesday. 

However, momentum softened on Wednesday, with BTC closing at $92,015 after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. 

In a widely expected move, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points. But the FOMC meeting signaled a likely pause in January. 

Adding to the cautious tone, policymakers projected only a one-quarter-percentage-point cut for the overall 2026 outlook. This was the same outlook as in September, which tempered market expectations of two rate cuts and contributed to short-term pressure on risk assets. 

The Fed’s cautious tone, combined with disappointing Oracle earnings, contributed to a brief risk-off move. 

All these factors weighed on riskier assets, with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization sliding to a low of $89,260 before rebounding and finishing above $92,500 on Thursday. 

With no major US data releases ahead, crypto markets will now look to FOMC member speeches and broader risk sentiment for direction

at the end of the week. 

BTC is likely to consolidate in the near term unless a significant catalyst emerges. 

Russia-Ukraine Uncertainty Limits Risk-on Momentum 

On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump is “extremely frustrated” with Russia and Ukraine, and he doesn’t want any more talk, his spokeswoman said on Thursday. 

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the US was pushing the country to cede land to Russia as part of an agreement to end a nearly four-year war. 

These lingering geopolitical tensions and stalled peace talks continue to weigh on global risk sentiment, limiting risk-on appetite and contributing to Bitcoin’s consolidation so far this week. 

Institutional Demand Sees Mild Signs of Improvement 

Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows mild signs of improvement. 

According to SoSoValue data, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total inflow of $237.44 million through Thursday, following a mild outflow of $87.77 million a week earlier, signaling that institutional investor interest improved somewhat. 

However, these weekly inflows remain small relative to those observed in mid-September. For BTC to continue its recovery, the ETF inflows should intensify. 

On the corporate front, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) announced on Monday that it purchased 10,624 Bitcoin for $962.7 million between December 1 and 7 at an average price of $90,615. 

The firm currently holds 660,624 BTC, valued at $49.35 billion. Strategy still retains substantial capacity to raise additional capital, potentially allowing for further large-scale Bitcoin accumulation. 

On-Chain Data Shows Easing Selling Pressure 

CryptoQuant’s weekly report on Wednesday highlights that selling pressure on Bitcoin is beginning to ease.

The report notes that exchange deposits eased as large players reduced their transfers to exchanges. 

The graph below shows that the share of total deposits from large players has declined from a 24-hour average high of 47% in mid-November to 21% as of Wednesday. 

At the same time, the average deposit has declined by 36%, from 1.1 BTC in November 22 to 0.7 BTC. 

CryptoQuant concludes that, if selling pressure remains low, a relief rally could push Bitcoin back to $99,000. This level is the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price bands, which is a price resistance during bear markets. 

After this level, the key price resistances are $102,000 (one-year moving average) and $112,000 (the Trader On-chain Realized price).

The Copper Research report also signaled optimism about Bitcoin. The report suggests that BTC’s four-year cycle hasn’t died; it has been replaced. 

Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin has exhibited repeatable Cost-Basis Return Cycles, as shown in the graph below.

Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at Copper, told FXStreet that “Since spot ETFs launched, Bitcoin has moved in repeatable mini-cycles where it pulls back to its cost basis and then rebounds by around 70%. 

With BTC now trading near its $84,000 cost basis, this pattern suggests a move north of $140,000 in the next 180 days. 

If the cost basis rises 10-15%, as in prior cycles, the resulting premium seen at past peaks produces a target range of $138,000 to $148,000. 

Bitcoin Santa Rally Ahead? 

Bitcoin posted a 17.67% loss in November, disappointing traders who had anticipated a rally based on its strong historical returns for the month (see CoinGlass data below). 

December has historically been a positive month for the king crypto, delivering an average return of 4.55%.

Looking at quarterly data, the fourth quarter (Q4) has been the best quarter for BTC in general, with an average return of 77.38%. 

Still, the performance in the last three months of 2025 has been underwhelming so far, posting for now a 19% loss.

Is BTC Setting a Bottom? 

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the price finding support around the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85,809, posting two consecutive green candles following a four-week correction that began in late October. 

As of this week, BTC is trading slightly higher, holding above $92,400. 

If BTC continues its recovery, it could extend the rally toward the 50-week EMA at $99,182.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart reads 40, pointing upward and indicating fading bearish momentum. For the recovery rally to be sustained, the RSI should move above the neutral level of 50. 

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253 (drawn from the April low of $74,508 to the all-time high of $126,199 set in October) on Wednesday. 

However, on Thursday, BTC rebounded after retesting its $90,000 psychological level. 

If BTC breaks above the descending trendline (drawn by connecting multiple highs since early October) and closes above the $94,253

resistance level, it could extend the rally toward the $100,000 psychological level. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is stable near the neutral 50 level, suggesting the lack of near-term momentum in either side. 

For the bullish momentum to be sustained, the RSI should move above the neutral level. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at the end of November, which remains intact, supporting the bullish thesis. 

If BTC were to resume its downward correction, the first key support is at $85,569, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

The post Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Fed Delivers, Yet Fails to Impress BTC Traders appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin approaches Christmas 2025 in a fragile but interesting position. Price trades around the $93,000 area after weeks of pressure. Four key charts show a market late in its correction, yet still lacking a clear bullish trigger.

The data highlights three big forces at work. Recent buyers sit in heavy losses, while new whales are capitulating. Macro conditions still drive price, even as spot buying strength quietly returns.

Short-Term Bitcoin Holders are in Deep Pain

The first chart tracks short-term holder (STH) realized profit and loss. This group includes coins bought in recent months. Their “realized price” is the average cost basis for these coins. 

Earlier in 2025, STHs sat on strong gains. Their average position was 15–20% in profit as Bitcoin pushed higher. That phase encouraged profit-taking and added sell pressure near the highs.

Today, the picture has flipped. Bitcoin trades below the STH realized price, and the cohort shows about -10% losses. The histogram on the chart is red, marking one of the deepest loss regimes of 2025.

This has two consequences.

Near term, these underwater holders can sell into every bounce. Many simply want out at break-even, which caps rallies toward their entry zone.

However, deep and persistent loss pockets usually appear later in corrections. They signal that weak hands already took heavy damage.

At some point, the selling power of this group runs low.

75% of Short-Term Holder's coins are sitting in loss (over 4.36 million BTC).

Interestingly enough, this is a comparable trend to the prior two local bottoms of this Bitcoin cycle. pic.twitter.com/2w1J4rXzi9

— On-Chain College (@OnChainCollege) December 8, 2025

Historically, the key turning signal comes when price reclaims the STH realized price from below. That move tells you forced selling is mostly done and new demand absorbs supply.

Until that happens, the chart still argues for caution and range trading around current levels.

New Bitcoin Whales Just Surrendered

The second chart shows realized profit and loss by whale cohorts. It splits flows between “new whales” and “old whales”. New whales are large holders that accumulated recently.

Yesterday, new whales realized $386 million in losses in one day. Their bar on the chart is a large negative spike. Several other big negative bars cluster around recent lows.

Old whales tell a different story. Their realized losses and profits are smaller and more balanced. They are not exiting at the same pace as the newcomers.

This pattern is typical at late stages of a correction. New whales often buy late, sometimes with leverage or strong narrative bias. When price moves against them, they are first to capitulate.

That capitulation has a structural benefit. Coins move from weak large hands to stronger hands or smaller buyers. Future sell-side overhang from this group decreases after such events.

Short term, these flushes can still drag price lower. Yet medium term, they improve the quality of Bitcoin’s holder base.

The market becomes more resilient once panicked large sellers finish exiting.

Real Interest Rates Still Steer Bitcoin

The third chart overlays Bitcoin with two-year US real yields, inverted. Real yields measure interest rates after inflation. The series moves almost tick-for-tick with BTC across 2025.

When real yields fall, the inverted line rises. Bitcoin tends to rise alongside it as liquidity improves. Lower real yields make risk assets more appealing relative to safe bonds.

Since late summer, real yields have moved higher again. The inverted line trended lower, and Bitcoin followed it down. This shows macro conditions still dominate the larger trend.

Federal Reserve rate cuts alone may not fix this. What matters is how markets expect real borrowing costs to evolve. If inflation expectations fall faster than nominal rates, real yields can even rise.

For Bitcoin, a durable new bull leg likely needs easier real conditions. Until bond markets price that shift, BTC rallies face a macro headwind.

What is driving the drawdown in Bitcoin?

When you stop listening to Bitcoin pundits and start listening to what Bitcoin is saying about itself, then you will see the real truth

I am going to lay out the 3 major things you need to watch for Bitcoin right now 🧵 pic.twitter.com/FC60PPt2gG

— Capital Flows (@Globalflows) December 11, 2025

Spot Taker Buyers are Stepping Back In

The fourth chart tracks 90-day Spot Taker CVD across major exchanges. CVD measures the net volume of market orders that cross the spread.

It shows whether aggressive buyers or sellers dominate.

For weeks during the drawdown, the regime was Taker Sell Dominant. Red bars filled the chart as sellers hit bids across spot markets. This aligned with the grinding drift lower in price.

Now the signal has flipped. The metric just turned Taker Buy Dominant, with green bars returning. Aggressive buyers now outnumber aggressive sellers on spot venues.

Taker Buy momentum is back 🔄

Bitcoin's 90-day Spot Taker CVD just flipped to **Taker Buy Dominant** — marking a shift in market behavior after weeks of sell-side pressure.

Buy-side aggression is returning across major spot exchanges. pic.twitter.com/w5uaGcGHPi

— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) December 11, 2025

This is an early but important change. Trend reversals often start with microstructure shifts like this.
First buyers step in, then price stabilizes, then larger flows follow.

One day of data is never enough. However, a sustained green regime would confirm that real demand is back. It would show spot markets absorbing supply from STHs and capitulating whales.

What It All Means For Bitcoin Price Heading Into Christmas

Taken together, the four charts show a late-stage correction, not a fresh bull market.

Short-term holders and new whales carry heavy losses and still sell into strength. Macro real yields keep a lid on risk appetite at the index level.

At the same time, some building blocks for a recovery are visible. Capitulation by new whales cleans up the holder base.

Spot taker buyers are returning, which reduces downside velocity.

Heading into Christmas 2025, Bitcoin looks range-bound with a bearish tilt, hovering around $90,000.

Downside spikes into the mid or high-$80,000s remain possible if real yields stay high. A clear bullish shift likely needs three signals together:

First, price must reclaim the short-term holders’ realized price and hold above it. Second, two-year real yields should roll lower, easing financial conditions.

Third, Taker Buy dominance should persist, confirming strong spot demand.

Until that alignment appears, traders face a choppy market shaped by macro data and trapped holders. Long-term investors may see this as a planning zone rather than a time for aggressive bets.

The post 4 Charts Explain Bitcoin’s Price Condition Heading into Christmas 2025 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Ethereum’s long-term trajectory has become a focal point again after Arthur Hayes laid out a sweeping forecast for the asset’s institutional future, price potential, and competitive space. 

His comments arrived as Ethereum trades near $3,200, fluctuating between $3,060 and $3,440 over the past week. Major players such as Tom Lee’s BitMine also increased their Ethereum holdings at an unprecedented pace.

Ethereum Becomes the Institutional Default

Hayes believes the market still misunderstands how deeply traditional institutions intend to integrate Ethereum. He argues that after years of failed experiments with private blockchains, banks now recognize the need for a public settlement layer.

“These organizations finally understand that you cannot have a private blockchain; you must use a public blockchain for security and real usage,” he said.

He links this shift to the stablecoin boom, which has forced banks to accept the value of on-chain settlement. 

According to Hayes, Ethereum is positioned as the only platform with the security, liquidity, and developer depth institutions need.

He expects this shift to drive a significant price resurgence for Ethereum in the coming cycle, complementing aggressive treasury accumulation by firms such as BitMine.

BitMine bought 33,504 ETH ($112 million) this week and 138,452 ETH (~$435 million) earlier in December, bringing its total to roughly 3.86 million ETH. That scale of accumulation has strengthened the narrative that institutions are positioning for Ethereum’s next major cycle. 

Privacy Remains Ethereum’s Biggest Weakness, But L2s Will Cover It

Hayes acknowledges Ethereum still lacks the privacy guarantees large institutions require. He notes that this is “the biggest thing Ethereum doesn’t have yet,” though he says Vitalik Buterin’s roadmap is actively addressing it.

Despite this gap, he argues institutional adoption will not be delayed. Instead, enterprises will deploy privacy-enabled Layer-2 networks while relying on Ethereum for settlement. 

He believes Ethereum L1 remains the “security substrate” regardless of whether activity occurs on L2s like Arbitrum or Optimism.

“There may need to be a debate about how fees are distributed between L2s and Ethereum L1,” he said, but he stressed that this does not change the underlying reality: institutions will still secure their operations using Ethereum.

This aligns with current ecosystem trends. Exchange balances are at multi-year lows, and whales have accumulated over 900,000 ETH in recent weeks, according to Santiment data. 

Institutional architecture continues to form around the Ethereum base layer, even as fees fall amid L2 migration.

A Narrow Field of Winners: Ethereum First, Solana Second

Hayes sees the future of public blockchains consolidating around a very small group. He places Ethereum as the clear long-term winner, with Solana in a distant but durable second place.

He credits Solana’s rise from $7 to $300 to intense meme coin activity in 2023 and 2024. However, he states Solana “needs a new trick” to outperform Ethereum again. 

While he expects Solana to remain relevant, he does not expect it to match Ethereum’s institutional role or long-term price strength.

Hayes views nearly all other L1s as structurally weak. He dismissed high-FDV chains such as Monad as over-inflated projects likely to collapse after an initial pump. 

“Monad won’t be able to compete with Ethereum

I have no belief that this is a legitimate blockchain.

It’ll never have any real usage.”

— Arthur Hayes

if you understand network effects, you know Ethereum’s here to stay at the top.

Monad’s solution is simple: build on… pic.twitter.com/EuXpU6VK1N

— rip.eth (@ripeth) November 29, 2025

50 ETH to Become a Millionaire by Next Election

Hayes offered his most explicit numerical prediction when asked how much ETH one would need to become a millionaire in the next cycle. 

He stated that Ethereum could reach $20,000, implying that 50 ETH would be enough to reach a seven-figure portfolio.

The BitMex founder expects this price target to materialize by the next US presidential election. His outlook aligns with the current supply environment: exchange reserves are shrinking, institutions are accumulating, and treasury buyers like BitMine continue to deploy hundreds of millions into ETH.

Arthur Hayes was just asked about Tom Lee saying $ETH could flip $BTC.

He says Ethereum is the best L1, with the most developers, the best DeFi, and the strongest talent. pic.twitter.com/EsQ74JpNRV

— SamAlτcoin.eth 🌎 (@SAMALTCOIN_ETH) October 21, 2025

If Ethereum fails to meet these expectations, Hayes says it will be due to narrative breakdown. 

Also, if stablecoin usage slows or institutions retreat from on-chain trading, Bitcoin could outperform Ethereum for a prolonged period.

However, he argues that current market structure favors Ethereum’s long-term dominance—especially as banks prepare to execute Web3 strategies on public infrastructure.

The post Arthur Hayes Makes Wild Ethereum Prediction for 2026 and Beyond appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin continues to trade near $92,000 after this week’s rebound, yet a growing cluster of on-chain indicators now suggests the market has already slipped into a bearish cycle. 

This stands in sharp contrast to recent predictions from market leaders like Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes, who argue Bitcoin could still close the year significantly higher.

Bullish Predictions Clash With Data

Lee recently softened his earlier $250,000 target and now expects Bitcoin to remain above $100,000 into year-end. 

Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes maintains a much more aggressive view, calling the recent dip to the low $80,000s a cycle bottom and forecasting a potential move toward $200,000–$250,000. 

However, the current market structure does not align with either scenario.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Signals composite shows why. During previous bull phases, including late 2023 and early 2025, the model displayed broad green conditions across valuation, demand growth, network activity, and stablecoin liquidity. 

Since mid-2025, these components have turned consistently red. MVRV Z-score has flipped into overheated territory, network activity has weakened, and stablecoin buying power has declined. 

The pattern resembles the early stages of the 2022 downturn rather than a continuation of the 2025 rally.

Also, the Bull Score Index, offers a more granular view. Bitcoin spent the first half of 2025 in bullish territory with readings above 60. 

By late August, the score began falling sharply, dropping below 40 in October and remaining flat through November despite short-term price volatility. 

The latest reading sits in the 20–30 range, deep within bearish conditions. The bounce from last week’s lows has done little to shift the underlying cycle signals. 

Another, the Bull Score mapped to price, reinforces this view. The model has transitioned from green “extra bullish” signals earlier this year to persistent red “bearish” and “extra bearish” readings across September, October, and November. 

Even the recent recovery toward $92,000 is categorized as a bearish-zone rally, mirroring distribution phases seen in previous cycle tops.

Momentum Metrics Strengthen the Bitcoin Bearish Case

Market momentum indicators now echo the same cycle shift. RSI remains neutral around 50, signalling a lack of conviction behind this week’s advance. 

Chaikin Money Flow has stayed negative for most of the month, reflecting continued capital outflows even as price recovers. 

While MACD recently flipped positive, the histogram already shows weakening amplitude. This indicates the move lacks sustained momentum.

Additional signals deepen the caution. Short-term RSI spikes above 70 in recent days failed to hold, showing sellers remain active during every attempt at a breakout. CMF’s inability to return to positive territory highlights ongoing distribution rather than accumulation. 

Meanwhile, MACD’s fragile crossover mirrors conditions seen during past bear market rallies, where momentum improves briefly before rolling over.

Taken together, on-chain, liquidity, and momentum indicators point to a structural shift into a bearish cycle. 

If Strategy holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells only a little), we would not see another -65% drawdown like in 2022.

We are about -25% from ATH now, and even if a bear cycle comes, the downside would likely be smaller and look more like a broad sideways range.

Long-term… pic.twitter.com/71HBg0UDs7

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) December 3, 2025

While Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes argue that Bitcoin could regain its earlier strength, current market data suggests the opposite. 

Unless stablecoin liquidity, network activity, and demand growth rebound decisively, Bitcoin’s recent recovery is more likely a temporary bounce than the beginning of a new upside phase.

The post Most Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators Signal a New Bear Market Cycle appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Gold (XAU/USD) gained momentum early in the week as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut strengthened. Markets then slowed due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, yet the metal still rose more than 2% on the week. 

With the Fed’s blackout period starting on Saturday, investors will now shift focus to incoming US data.

Gold Rises as Fed Doves Grow Louder

Gold opened the week strong as traders reassessed the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December. 

Late last week, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said he would support a 25 bps cut if his vote became decisive. His recent stance contrasts with his earlier preference for a 50 bps cut in previous meetings.

New York Fed President John Williams also signaled openness to easing. He said monetary policy remained “modestly restrictive,” adding there was room for a further adjustment soon.

Gold jumped more than 1.5% on Monday. It edged higher again on Tuesday before closing flat. ADP data showed that private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs each week through November 8.

Gold to silver ratio (GTS) broke down a 14-year rising support. Immediate support comes at 72.
With gold price at $4,500 and GTS 72, silver to reach at least $62. This could be the case already next week…

This post is not an investment advice… pic.twitter.com/3rLptnAwpu

— Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) November 28, 2025

Fresh US data on Wednesday showed 216,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22, down 6,000 from the prior period. 

Durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September, beating expectations of 0.3%. These numbers did not alter Fed expectations, and Gold held firm above $4,100 ahead of the holiday.

Trading remained thin on Friday, but Gold stayed near the upper end of its weekly range.

Gold Investors Turn to US Data

Fed officials cannot comment again until the December 9–10 meeting. As a result, markets will rely on US data to gauge the likelihood of a rate cut.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign roughly an 85% chance of a 25 bps cut in December.

The US calendar begins with ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday. A stronger employment index — especially a reading above 50 — could support the US dollar and weigh on XAU/USD.

The ISM Services PMI follows on Wednesday. A drop below 50 would signal contraction and could pressure the USD, offering support to Gold.

Investors will also watch Thursday’s Challenger Job Cuts report. Layoffs surged to 153,074 in October, the highest level in 22 years. A sharp drop would ease labor-market concerns and may support the USD.

The BEA releases PCE Price Index data on Friday. However, this report covers September due to earlier backlog and is unlikely to move markets.

Gold Technical Analysis

The short-term technical view remains constructive, though momentum has not strengthened further. 

On the daily chart, Gold trades comfortably above the 20-day Simple Moving Average and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the August–October rally at $4,125. The RSI holds near 60 and moves sideways.

Support sits at $4,125 before $4,085 (20-day SMA), $4,030 (50-day SMA), and $3,970 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). On the upside, resistance stands at $4,245, followed by $4,300 and $4,380.

The post Gold Weekly Forecast: Bulls Show Interest as Fed Cut Odds Grow appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Arthur Hayes is standing by his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2025, despite the October–November crash and lingering market fear. 

Speaking on the Milk Road Show on November 26, he said the recent drop to $80,000 marked the cycle bottom and argued that global dollar liquidity has turned a corner.

“I’m going to stick with it,” Hayes said when asked if his $200,000–$250,000 target still holds with only weeks left in the year. “If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter… I’m long, I’m still happy either way.”

Hayes Calls $80,000 the Bottom After Liquidity Shock

Hayes framed the entire move from Bitcoin’s $125,000 high down to $80,000 as a liquidity-driven reset, not the start of a new bear market.

He said his Bloomberg-based US dollar liquidity index showed about $1 trillion drained from dollar money markets between July and now. 

This came from the US Treasury refilling its account and the Federal Reserve continuing quantitative tightening.

People think Bitcoin runs on halving cycles.

Wrong.

It runs on liquidity, politics and the US business cycle. Which hasn’t even started yet.

2026 is where the fireworks starts:
– QT ending
– The US Midterm election
– Booming economy and stock market for reelection purposes
-… pic.twitter.com/aiyOOlODm1

— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) November 28, 2025

According to Hayes, Bitcoin ignored that liquidity drain for months because ETF inflows and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) issuances masked the damage. 

Once those flows flipped, he said, Bitcoin “fell down to where it should have been based on the dollar liquidity situation.”

ETF “Institutional Bid” Was Just a Basis Trade

Hayes argued that the widely celebrated ETF bid was badly misunderstood by retail traders.

The largest holders of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF are firms like Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, Millennium, Jane Street and Avenue. 

These are not long-only Bitcoin believers, he stressed, but basis traders exploiting a spread.

“They’re taking the IBIT ETF, they buy it, they pledge it with their broker, then they sell a futures contract… they were making let’s call it 7 to 10% per annum on that trade,” he said. 

As funding rates fell in September and October, those players unwound the trade by selling ETFs and buying back futures, turning ETF flows negative.

Retail investors then misread the outflows as “institutions dumping Bitcoin,” Hayes said, without understanding that institutions were only unwinding a funding strategy.

JP MORGAN IS MOVING BITCOIN INTO THE $318 TRILLION BOND MARKET.

JP Morgan has launched a new structured note that gives investors exposure to Bitcoin through BlackRock’s spot ETF (IBIT).

This matters because it pulls Bitcoin directly into the traditional bond and fixed-income… pic.twitter.com/HZQLM9YgGG

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) November 28, 2025

Hayes also highlighted the role of Digital Asset Treasury companies, which issue stock and debt to buy Bitcoin when their market NAV trades at a premium.

When those stocks fell to par or discount, he said, this model broke. DATs could no longer issue new securities in an accretive way. 

Some even had an incentive to sell Bitcoin and buy back their own shares.

“All we know is that we have essentially bottomed on the liquidity chart and the direction in the future is higher,” he said. “That’s why I believe that the $80,000 dip on Bitcoin recently is the bottom.”

He expects the next leg of liquidity to come less from the Fed and more from the commercial banking system, pointing to early signs of renewed bank lending and political plans for a credit-fuelled industrial build-out.

Why Bitcoin Is “Stuck” Around $90,000 For Now

Asked why Bitcoin still trades near $90,000 if the liquidity outlook is improving, Hayes pointed to uncertainty over how aggressively the new US administration will actually create credit.

Markets, he said, still question how and when another “$10 trillion” of liquidity will materialise. 

Promises about bank lending, industrial policy, and a new Fed chair remain political talk until they turn into concrete programs and flows.

“Once we actually start to see things happen, markets will price a bigger forward on where this dollar liquidity situation is and risk assets like Bitcoin will accelerate their rise in price,” Hayes said.

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