Venture firm a16z has released its annual crypto predictions, outlining a sweeping shift in how blockchains, AI agents, and global payments will operate by 2026. 

The research highlights three core forces — autonomous agents, disappearing payment rails, and a new era of privacy-first blockchains. All of these developments together signal a structural redesign of the internet’s financial layer.

AI Agents Will Force a Massive Shift

The most consequential shift, according to a16z, is the rise of AI agents as economic participants. For every human in financial services, agents now outnumber workers nearly 100 to 1. 

However, these autonomous systems still lack identity, permissions, or compliance structures. The firm argues that 2026 will introduce the first version of KYA: Know Your Agent, a cryptographic identity layer linking agents to their owners, constraints, and liabilities. 

Without this, agents will remain “unbanked ghosts,” unable to transact safely or access real markets. With it, they become programmable market actors capable of spending, trading, and settling value in real time.

Payments Vanish into the Internet’s Plumbing

This shift drives the second major prediction: payments will vanish into the network itself. As AI agents trigger transactions automatically — buying data, paying for GPU time, or settling API calls — money must move with the same speed and granularity as information. 

Emerging primitives like x402 enable value transfer to occur instantly, permissionlessly, and without intermediaries. 

In this model, payments stop being an application layer and become a native network behavior. Banks, stablecoins, and settlement systems become invisible infrastructure running under agent-to-agent commerce.

Privacy Chains Will Dominate

Privacy forms the third pillar of a16z’s 2026 outlook. The firm argues that privacy will become the strongest moat in crypto, far outweighing performance or throughput. 

More specifically, once transactions become private, users face real friction when switching chains because moving secrets leaks metadata. This creates “privacy lock-in,” a winner-take-most effect for the chains that get privacy right.

Privacy will be the most important moat in crypto.

Why? Because secrets are hard to migrate.

Everyone is launching a new "high performance" blockchain lately. But these chains are hardly different from one another. Blockspace is functionally the same everywhere. And with…

— Ali Yahya (@alive_eth) December 5, 2025

Arthur Hayes echoed the same point earlier, stating that institutional adoption cannot scale on public-by-default blockchains. 

“These large institutions don’t want their information public or at risk of going public,” he said, noting that Layer-2 privacy solutions may emerge first while Ethereum remains the underlying security substrate.

Other a16z crypto predictions highlight rising stablecoin infrastructure, the shift from tokenization to on-chain origination, verifiable cloud computing through faster SNARKs, and the emergence of “staked media,” where commentators prove credibility through on-chain commitments.

The post a16z Predicts Three Crypto Narratives Will Shine In 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Ethereum’s long-term trajectory has become a focal point again after Arthur Hayes laid out a sweeping forecast for the asset’s institutional future, price potential, and competitive space. 

His comments arrived as Ethereum trades near $3,200, fluctuating between $3,060 and $3,440 over the past week. Major players such as Tom Lee’s BitMine also increased their Ethereum holdings at an unprecedented pace.

Ethereum Becomes the Institutional Default

Hayes believes the market still misunderstands how deeply traditional institutions intend to integrate Ethereum. He argues that after years of failed experiments with private blockchains, banks now recognize the need for a public settlement layer.

“These organizations finally understand that you cannot have a private blockchain; you must use a public blockchain for security and real usage,” he said.

He links this shift to the stablecoin boom, which has forced banks to accept the value of on-chain settlement. 

According to Hayes, Ethereum is positioned as the only platform with the security, liquidity, and developer depth institutions need.

He expects this shift to drive a significant price resurgence for Ethereum in the coming cycle, complementing aggressive treasury accumulation by firms such as BitMine.

BitMine bought 33,504 ETH ($112 million) this week and 138,452 ETH (~$435 million) earlier in December, bringing its total to roughly 3.86 million ETH. That scale of accumulation has strengthened the narrative that institutions are positioning for Ethereum’s next major cycle. 

Privacy Remains Ethereum’s Biggest Weakness, But L2s Will Cover It

Hayes acknowledges Ethereum still lacks the privacy guarantees large institutions require. He notes that this is “the biggest thing Ethereum doesn’t have yet,” though he says Vitalik Buterin’s roadmap is actively addressing it.

Despite this gap, he argues institutional adoption will not be delayed. Instead, enterprises will deploy privacy-enabled Layer-2 networks while relying on Ethereum for settlement. 

He believes Ethereum L1 remains the “security substrate” regardless of whether activity occurs on L2s like Arbitrum or Optimism.

“There may need to be a debate about how fees are distributed between L2s and Ethereum L1,” he said, but he stressed that this does not change the underlying reality: institutions will still secure their operations using Ethereum.

This aligns with current ecosystem trends. Exchange balances are at multi-year lows, and whales have accumulated over 900,000 ETH in recent weeks, according to Santiment data. 

Institutional architecture continues to form around the Ethereum base layer, even as fees fall amid L2 migration.

A Narrow Field of Winners: Ethereum First, Solana Second

Hayes sees the future of public blockchains consolidating around a very small group. He places Ethereum as the clear long-term winner, with Solana in a distant but durable second place.

He credits Solana’s rise from $7 to $300 to intense meme coin activity in 2023 and 2024. However, he states Solana “needs a new trick” to outperform Ethereum again. 

While he expects Solana to remain relevant, he does not expect it to match Ethereum’s institutional role or long-term price strength.

Hayes views nearly all other L1s as structurally weak. He dismissed high-FDV chains such as Monad as over-inflated projects likely to collapse after an initial pump. 

“Monad won’t be able to compete with Ethereum

I have no belief that this is a legitimate blockchain.

It’ll never have any real usage.”

— Arthur Hayes

if you understand network effects, you know Ethereum’s here to stay at the top.

Monad’s solution is simple: build on… pic.twitter.com/EuXpU6VK1N

— rip.eth (@ripeth) November 29, 2025

50 ETH to Become a Millionaire by Next Election

Hayes offered his most explicit numerical prediction when asked how much ETH one would need to become a millionaire in the next cycle. 

He stated that Ethereum could reach $20,000, implying that 50 ETH would be enough to reach a seven-figure portfolio.

The BitMex founder expects this price target to materialize by the next US presidential election. His outlook aligns with the current supply environment: exchange reserves are shrinking, institutions are accumulating, and treasury buyers like BitMine continue to deploy hundreds of millions into ETH.

Arthur Hayes was just asked about Tom Lee saying $ETH could flip $BTC.

He says Ethereum is the best L1, with the most developers, the best DeFi, and the strongest talent. pic.twitter.com/EsQ74JpNRV

— SamAlτcoin.eth 🌎 (@SAMALTCOIN_ETH) October 21, 2025

If Ethereum fails to meet these expectations, Hayes says it will be due to narrative breakdown. 

Also, if stablecoin usage slows or institutions retreat from on-chain trading, Bitcoin could outperform Ethereum for a prolonged period.

However, he argues that current market structure favors Ethereum’s long-term dominance—especially as banks prepare to execute Web3 strategies on public infrastructure.

The post Arthur Hayes Makes Wild Ethereum Prediction for 2026 and Beyond appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The crypto market is showing its first meaningful recovery after a harsh November sell-off, and several metrics now resemble the same conditions seen around Thanksgiving in both 2022 and 2023. 

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $91,000 level, ETH is back above $3,000, and the wider market has returned to a cautious green. This bounce comes as traders enter a long US holiday weekend that has historically set the tone for December.

Market Indicators Turn Positive After Weeks of Fear

Fear and Greed Index data shows sentiment improving from 11 last week to 22 today, although it remains in “Extreme Fear.” 

This shift aligns with a steady rise in average crypto RSI, which climbed from 38.5 seven days ago to 58.3 today. The reading signals growing strength after deep oversold conditions earlier in the month.

Momentum also flipped. The normalized MACD across major assets has turned positive for the first time since early November. 

About 82% of tracked cryptocurrencies now show positive trend momentum. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana appear in the bullish zone of CoinMarketCap’s MACD heatmap.

Price action supports this shift. Bitcoin is up 6% on the week. Ethereum has gained nearly 8%. Solana climbed almost 8% in the same period. 

The market cap has grown to $3.21 trillion, rising 1.1% over the last 24 hours.

A Familiar Post-Thanksgiving Setup Has Emerged

The current recovery mirrors a structure seen twice before. In both 2022 and 2023, the market entered Thanksgiving after a sharp drawdown and then stabilized into December.

In 2022, Bitcoin fell to near $16,000 following the FTX collapse. By Thanksgiving, selling pressure had exhausted, and the market traded sideways into Christmas. 

It was a deep bear consolidation phase rather than a rally.

In 2023, Bitcoin entered Thanksgiving at $37,000 after a steep September-October correction. Strong ETF expectations and improving liquidity conditions pushed BTC to $43,600 by Christmas. It was a classic early-bull December rally.

This year, the pattern again repeats one familiar element: the November crash came early, and by Thanksgiving, selling momentum had eased. 

Bitcoin’s 90-day Taker CVD has shifted from persistent sell dominance to neutral, signalling that aggressive sellers have stepped back. Funding rates and leverage data support the same interpretation.

BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes the day +0.7% higher, adding +$2.5 trillion of market cap since last week’s low.

Happy Thanksgiving to all! pic.twitter.com/tsjKylr5UV

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 26, 2025

Liquidity Damage Still Shapes the Current Cycle

BitMine chairman Tom Lee described the market as “limping” after the October 10 liquidation shock. 

He said market makers were forced to shrink their balance sheets, weakening market depth across exchanges. That fragility persisted through November.

However, Lee also argued that Bitcoin tends to make its biggest moves in short bursts when liquidity recovers. He expects a strong December rally if the Federal Reserve signals a softer stance.

On-chain data aligns with this view. Nexo collateral figures show users still prefer borrowing against Bitcoin rather than selling it. 

BTC makes up more than 53% of all collateral on the platform. This behavior suppresses immediate sell pressure, helping stabilize spot markets. But it also adds hidden leverage that could amplify future volatility.

'@Nexo users aren’t selling their Bitcoin, they’re borrowing against it.

BTC now accounts for 54.3% of all collateral on the platform, holding a steady 53–57% range for months.

It confirms Bitcoin is the dominant asset users leverage when they need liquidity. pic.twitter.com/bhmL9UdUvO

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 27, 2025

We May Be Entering a Two-Year Holiday Pattern

Three factors now look similar to the post-Thanksgiving conditions of 2022 and 2023:

• Seller exhaustion: Taker CVD shifting to neutral signals the end of forced selling for now.
  
• Momentum recovery: MACD and RSI metrics have reversed sharply after bottoming earlier in November.
  
• Liquidity stabilization: Market makers are still wounded, but volatility has cooled, and ETF outflows have slowed.
  

If this pattern continues, December could produce one of two outcomes based on the last two years:

• A sideways consolidation like 2022 if liquidity remains thin.
  
• A short, sharp rally like 2023 if macro conditions turn supportive.
  

The deciding factor will likely be the Federal Reserve’s tone in early December and the behavior of Bitcoin ETF flows. Thin liquidity means even moderate inflows could move prices quickly.

#Bitcoin Testing 90k 
if it holds its the first step to a Santa Rally pic.twitter.com/QhHQNfDQPk

— RudoViljoen (@TheChartArtist) November 19, 2025

December May Deliver a Large Move in Either Direction

The market has entered a transition phase rather than a clear trend. Sentiment is still extremely fearful, but price and momentum indicators show recovery. 

Bitcoin’s position above $91,000 suggests buyers are willing to defend key levels, yet order-book depth remains weak.

With selling pressure fading and technical momentum rising, the environment now resembles the same post-Thanksgiving setups that marked the last two end-of-year cycles. 

Bitcoin dominance looks weak here.

ETH/BTC is holding above the 0.03-0.032 support zone.

It seems like we could see ETH outperformance in December. pic.twitter.com/IRQS05mETi

— Ted (@TedPillows) November 27, 2025

If the pattern holds, December will not be flat. It will likely bring a decisive move as liquidity conditions shift.

The direction, however, will depend less on crypto narratives and more on macro signals and ETF demand in the coming weeks.

The post Crypto Market Hints at a Two-Year Post-Thanksgiving Pattern Returning appeared first on BeInCrypto.