Bitcoin sebagian besar mengabaikan sinyal ekonomi makro yang seharusnya mendukung. CPI AS turun menjadi 2,7% pada Desember, menguatkan ekspektasi pemangkasan suku bunga, tapi Bitcoin tidak merespons. Alih-alih menarik modal baru, harga Bitcoin justru stagnan sementara dana berputar ke aset lain.

Ketidaksesuaian inilah yang membuat topik bear market Bitcoin kembali mencuat.

Direktur Global Macro dari Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer, baru-baru ini mewanti-wanti bahwa Bitcoin mungkin sudah mengakhiri siklus empat tahun terbarunya pada bulan Oktober, baik secara harga maupun waktu. Data on-chain dan pasar sejak saat itu semakin mendukung pandangan ini.

Data Menunjukkan Bitcoin Mungkin Sudah Masuk Bear Market

Berbagai indikator independen sekarang mengarah pada kesimpulan yang sama: modal mulai keluar, para holder dengan keyakinan tinggi mulai melepas kepemilikan, dan Bitcoin menerima risiko tanpa ada permintaan nyata.

Arus Masuk Stablecoin Anjlok sejak Puncak Siklus

Aliran stablecoin ke exchange biasanya menjadi ‘bahan bakar cadangan’ untuk reli kripto. Tapi, bahan bakar itu kini sudah lenyap.

Total arus masuk stablecoin ERC-20 ke exchange memuncak di sekitar 10,2 miliar pada 14 Agustus. Pada 24 Desember, arus masuk tersebut turun drastis menjadi sekitar 1,06 miliar, artinya berkurang hampir 90%.

Ingin insight token seperti ini? Daftar ke Newsletter Crypto Harian dari Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Puncak arus masuk bulan Agustus itu berdekatan dengan harga tertinggi Bitcoin pada bulan Oktober di atas US$125.000, yang juga menjadi periode yang disebut Timmer sebagai puncak siklus kemungkinan besar.

While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025

Sejak saat itu, modal baru belum kembali, mempertegas pandangan bahwa distribusi kini menggantikan akumulasi setelah puncak harga tercapai.

Holder Jangka Panjang Kini Jadi Penjual Agresif

Holder dengan keyakinan tinggi mulai menunjukkan perilaku berbeda setelah Oktober.

Perubahan posisi bersih holder jangka panjang Bitcoin berubah menjadi negatif tak lama setelah puncak siklus. Aksi jual meningkat dari sekitar 16.500 BTC per hari di akhir Oktober menjadi sekitar 279.000 BTC baru-baru ini. Ini merupakan kenaikan tekanan distribusi harian lebih dari 1.500%.

Ini sangat sejalan dengan tesis Timmer bahwa fase siklus halving empat tahun kemungkinan besar telah selesai di Oktober. Holder jangka panjang juga sepertinya sepakat, mereka justru mengurangi eksposur daripada mempertahankan harga.

Dominasi Bitcoin Naik, tapi Bukan karena Alasan Bullish

Dominasi Bitcoin naik lagi mendekati 57-59%, namun ini bukan sinyal risk-on.

Setelah rilis CPI yang lebih rendah, modal tidak mengalir ke Bitcoin. Dana justru mengarah ke aset lindung nilai tradisional. Dalam setahun terakhir, harga perak reli lebih dari 120%, sementara emas naik sekitar 65%. Di saat yang sama, pasar kripto lebih luas justru tertinggal jauh.

If you invested $10,000 in each asset at the start of 2025, you’d have:

Silver → $23,000

Gold → $16,500

Copper → $13,500

Nvidia → $13,450

Nasdaq → $12,000

S&P 500 → $11,600

BTC → $9,400

ETH → $8,800

Altcoins → $5,800

— Dirk 💎 (@DirksDegen) December 24, 2025

Pergeseran arah modal ini menguatkan pandangan bahwa dominasi Bitcoin yang meningkat bukan karena minat risiko baru, melainkan karena modal keluar ke arah yang dianggap lebih aman di dalam pasar kripto.

Pandangan ini juga datang dari komentar pasar eksklusif yang dibagikan kepada BeInCrypto oleh Ray Youssef, founder sekaligus CEO NoOnes, yang menyoroti mengapa emas menjadi pemimpin trade debasement 2025 sementara Bitcoin masih sideways.

“While gold may clearly be winning the 2025 debasement trade on price performance, the comparison masks a more nuanced market reality. Gold’s recent run to new all-time highs and 67% YTD gains reflect classical defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market environment defined by fiscal excess, geopolitical strain, and macro policy uncertainty. Increased central bank accumulation, a softer dollar, and persistent inflation risks have reinforced gold’s role as the market’s preferred defensive asset,” ujar Ray Youssef.

Youssef juga menyampaikan bahwa perilaku Bitcoin tahun ini sangat berbeda dengan narasi digital-gold.

“Bitcoin, by contrast, has recently failed to deliver on the hedge narrative. The asset has not traded like digital gold in 2025, owing to its heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. BTC’s upside is now tied to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity, and risk sentiment, rather than to monetary debasement alone,” papar Youssef.

Alamat Mega-Whale Nampaknya Mulai Turun Diam-Diam

Holder besar juga mulai mundur.

Jumlah alamat Bitcoin yang memegang lebih dari 10.000 BTC turun dari 92 pada awal Desember menjadi 88. Penurunan ini terjadi bersamaan dengan harga yang menurun dan bukan karena akumulasi.

Alamat-alamat ini sering mewakili pelaku institusi besar. Berkurangnya jumlahnya menambah konfirmasi tambahan bahwa smart money tidak sedang memposisikan diri secara agresif untuk kenaikan di sini.

Bitcoin Masih di Bawah Moving Average Jangka Panjang yang Penting

Bitcoin masih diperdagangkan di bawah moving average 365 harinya di dekat US$102.000, level yang terakhir kali benar-benar ditembus pada awal pasar bearish tahun 2022.

Moving average ini menjadi support secara teknikal dan psikologis. Gagal untuk mengatasinya lagi menandakan bahwa pasar sudah berubah dari kelanjutan tren ke risiko perubahan tren. Jika harga tetap di bawah level ini, sejarah mengarah ke zona penurunan yang lebih dalam di dekat range harga realisasi trader sekitar US$72.000.

Bitcoin is below its 365-day moving average ($102K), a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.

If price fails to reclaim it, data suggest the next support lies near $72K, the Traders’ minimum realized price band. pic.twitter.com/VySVce5NY9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 5, 2025

Semua sinyal ini sejalan dengan peringatan Timmer bahwa Bitcoin mungkin memang sudah memasuki fase bear-market atau sudah mendekatinya, meskipun harganya belum sepenuhnya mencerminkan situasi tersebut. Modal sudah mulai mengering, holder dengan keyakinan tinggi pun menjual, dominasi naik dengan cara defensif, dan kondisi ekonomi makro pun diabaikan.

Namun, tidak semua support siklus jangka panjang sudah patah. Sinyal kontra dan level-level penentu apakah ini akan menjadi bear market penuh atau transisi berkepanjangan akan dibahas selanjutnya.

Mengapa Skenario Bear Market Bitcoin Belum Sepenuhnya Selesai

Walau makin banyak bukti yang mengarah ke bear market Bitcoin, ada dua indikator siklus jangka panjang yang masih belum mendukung adanya penurunan struktural yang pasti.

Salah satu alasan mengapa kasus bear market Bitcoin belum mencapai kesimpulan, karena pasar menafsirkan perlambatan CPI secara berbeda. Biasanya, inflasi yang melandai bisa menguntungkan aset berisiko, namun respons saat ini menunjukkan investor lebih memilih keamanan dan likuiditas dibanding pertumbuhan.

Ini tidak berarti sinyal CPI salah. Mungkin sinyal ini hanya datang lebih awal, karena secara historis Bitcoin memang biasanya bereaksi belakangan setelah ekspektasi likuiditas benar-benar mengalir ke arus modal.

Indikator-indikator ini, serta yang akan kita bahas sebentar lagi, tidak meniadakan sinyal bearish di atas. Tetapi hal ini memberi alasan kenapa fase ini masih bisa menjadi transisi panjang dan bukan siklus bear market penuh.

Pi Cycle Top Belum Terpicu

Salah satu indikator siklus paling andal di Bitcoin, Pi Cycle Top, sampai sekarang belum memberikan sinyal puncak. Indikator ini membandingkan moving average 111 hari dengan moving average 350 hari dikali dua.

Secara historis, ketika dua garis ini berpotongan, Bitcoin sudah berada di dekat atau di puncak siklus besar.

Sampai sekarang, kedua garis ini masih berjauhan. Artinya, Bitcoin belum berada di fase panas atau euforia, bahkan setelah puncaknya di bulan Oktober.

Hal ini bertentangan dengan pendapat Direktur Global Makro Fidelity, Jurrien Timmer, yang menyoroti bahwa puncak Oktober di kisaran US$125.000 sesuai dengan waktu siklus-siklus sebelumnya.

Pada siklus sebelumnya, bear market baru dimulai setelah ada konfirmasi jelas dari Pi Cycle. Sinyal itu sampai kini belum muncul.

SMA 2 Tahun Masih Jadi Garis yang Paling Penting

Argumen kontra kedua yang lebih penting adalah secara struktur. Bitcoin masih diperdagangkan di dekat simple moving average 2 tahun yang ada pada kisaran US$82.800.

Level ini sudah berkali-kali menjadi pembatas tren jangka panjang Bitcoin. Penutupan bulanan di atas SMA 2 tahun biasanya menandai siklus bertahan.

Penutupan di bawah level ini secara berkelanjutan menandakan adanya fase bear yang dalam.

Sampai sejauh ini, Bitcoin belum mengalami penutupan bulanan di bawah garis tersebut.

Karena itu, penutupan bulan Desember sangatlah menentukan. Jika Bitcoin bertahan di atas US$82.800 sampai akhir tahun, kemungkinan pasar masih berada di fase transisi siklus akhir, bukan bear market Bitcoin yang sudah terkonfirmasi.

🚨 Bitcoin in a critical zone on the 2Y SMA Multiplier

The 2Y SMA Multiplier is one of Bitcoin’s most respected cycle charts — and the current moment demands attention.

📍 Today, BTC is trading very close to the 2Y SMA, currently at $82,800.

📉 History matters:
Whenever… pic.twitter.com/jmIW9RSSGg

— Alphractal (@Alphractal) December 16, 2025

Skema ini masih membuka peluang bahwa tahun 2026 akan menunjukkan kenaikan tertunda, bukan penurunan berkepanjangan.

Akan tetapi, jika Desember ditutup jauh di bawah SMA 2 tahun, proyeksi penurunan menuju kisaran US$65.000–US$75.000 yang disebut Timmer menjadi lebih kuat secara struktural.

TL;DR — Level Harga Bitcoin Penting yang Perlu Kamu Pantau Sekarang

Kerangka bearish juga punya level pembatalan yang jelas. Jika Bitcoin berhasil kembali ke atas moving average 365 hari di sekitar US$102.000, ini akan sangat melemahkan skenario bear market. Hal ini sejalan dengan prediksi harga Bitcoin akhir tahun dari Tom Lee.

Level tersebut jadi penanda awal bear market 2022 saat ditembus, dan bila harga pulih ke atasnya, itu akan menandakan kekuatan tren kembali muncul.

Secara sederhana:

• Di atas US$82.800 sampai penutupan Desember: fase transisi tetap berjalan
• Di bawah US$82.800 secara bulanan: risiko bear market meningkat
• Kembali ke atas US$102.000: struktur bullish mulai terbentuk lagi

Saat ini, Bitcoin berada di antara tekanan jual dan support siklus jangka panjang. Pasar belum memperlihatkan kekuatan, tapi juga belum benar-benar mengalami breakdown.

Penutupan Desember akan menentukan narasi mana yang akan berlanjut sampai 2026.

Dogecoin price has remained under pressure. The token is down around 2% over the past 24 hours and more than 12% over the past month. Price action has weakened, but the decline is slowing.

While the chart structure still leans bearish, on-chain behavior suggests the breakdown may not be a done deal yet. The next few sessions will decide whether DOGE slips into a deeper decline or stabilizes near current levels.

Dogecoin Price Pressure Builds as Short-Term Supply Exits

Dogecoin is trading near the lower boundary of a declining price structure, with a bear flag forming. That keeps downside risk active, especially if support near $0.124-$0.120 fails. However, what stands out is how speculative supply has behaved as price drifted lower.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

The 1-week-to-1-month-hold cohort, typically the most aggressive swing-trading group, has sharply reduced exposure, per the HODL Waves metric. This metric classifies hodlers by time.

On November 29, this cohort controlled roughly 7.73% of Dogecoin’s supply. As of December 23, that share has dropped to about 2.76%. That is a steep reduction in speculative positioning over a short period.

This matters because these holders tend to amplify downside when they panic sell. Their exit often reduces forced selling pressure near support.

Long-Term Holders Quietly Add as Coin Activity Drops

At the same time speculative supply is shrinking, longer-term holders are showing early signs of accumulation. The 1-year to 2-year holder cohort has increased its share of Dogecoin supply from around 21.84% to 22.34%. The increase is small, but the signal matters.

These holders typically add only when they believe downside risk is starting to fade.

Coin activity across the network, measured via the spent coins metric, supports that view. Spent coins activity has fallen sharply. The spent coins age band metric dropped from roughly 251.97 million DOGE to about 94.34 million DOGE. That represents a decline of more than 60% in coin movement.

Lower coin activity possibly means fewer holders are rushing to move or sell tokens. Historically, similar drops in activity have preceded short-term relief rallies in Dogecoin. Earlier in December, a similar slowdown preceded a rally from near $0.132 to $0.151, a near 15% move, within three days.

This does not guarantee a rally, but it shows selling aggression is cooling rather than accelerating.

Key Dogecoin Price Levels That Decide Breakdown or Recovery

The technical picture now hinges on a narrow price range. The $0.120 level remains the most important near-term support. A decisive daily close below it would expose the Dogecoin price to deeper downside toward the $0.112 zone and potentially lower if momentum builds.

On the upside, the recovery case depends on reclaiming nearby resistance. A move back above $0.133 would signal that selling pressure is easing. A stronger reclaim of $0.138 would confirm that buyers are regaining control and that the recent decline was corrective rather than the start of a larger breakdown.

In simple terms, Dogecoin is at a crossroads. Price structure still carries risk, but on-chain data shows speculative supply leaving, long-term holders slowly stepping in, and overall coin activity drying up. If support holds, those factors can help stabilize the price. If it fails, the breakdown remains valid.

The post Dogecoin Nears Breakdown Zone; On-Chain Signals Fight Back — What’s Next For Price appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin has largely ignored what should have been supportive macro signals. US CPI cooled to 2.7% in December, strengthening rate-cut expectations, yet Bitcoin failed to respond. Instead of attracting fresh capital, the price stalled while money rotated elsewhere.

That disconnect is why the Bitcoin bear market discussion is resurfacing.

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, recently warned that Bitcoin may have already ended its latest four-year cycle in October, both in price and time. The on-chain and market data since then increasingly support that view.

Data Signals Suggest Bitcoin May Already Be in a Bear Market

Multiple independent indicators now point to the same conclusion: capital is retreating, conviction holders are selling, and Bitcoin is absorbing risk without real demand.

Stablecoin Inflows Have Collapsed Since the Cycle Peak

Stablecoin inflows often act as dry powder for crypto rallies. That fuel has vanished.

Total exchange inflows for ERC-20 stablecoins peaked at around 10.2 billion on August 14. By December 24, inflows had fallen to roughly 1.06 billion, a drop of nearly 90%.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

That August inflow peak closely preceded Bitcoin’s October high above $125,000, the same period Timmer identified as the likely cycle top.

While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025

Since then, fresh capital has failed to return, reinforcing the idea that distribution replaced accumulation after the peak.

Long-Term Holders Have Turned Aggressive Sellers

Conviction holders are behaving differently after October.

Bitcoin long-term holder net position change flipped negative shortly after the cycle high. Selling accelerated from roughly 16,500 BTC per day in late October to around 279,000 BTC recently. That is an increase of more than 1,500% in daily distribution pressure.

This aligns directly with Timmer’s thesis that the four-year halving cycle phase likely ended in October. Long-term holders appear to agree, reducing exposure rather than defending price.

Bitcoin Dominance Is Rising, But Not for Bullish Reasons

Bitcoin dominance has climbed back toward 57–59%, but this is not a risk-on signal.

After the softer CPI print, capital did not rotate into Bitcoin. Instead, it flowed into traditional hedges. Over the past year, silver has rallied by over 120%, while gold is up roughly 65%. At the same time, broader crypto markets have lagged badly.

If you invested $10,000 in each asset at the start of 2025, you’d have:

Silver → $23,000

Gold → $16,500

Copper → $13,500

Nvidia → $13,450

Nasdaq → $12,000

S&P 500 → $11,600

BTC → $9,400

ETH → $8,800

Altcoins → $5,800

— Dirk 💎 (@DirksDegen) December 24, 2025

This shift reinforces the idea that Bitcoin’s rising dominance is not being driven by fresh risk appetite, but by capital retreating into relative safety within crypto.

That view is echoed by an exclusive market comment shared with BeInCrypto by Ray Youssef, founder and CEO of NoOnes, who highlighted why gold has led the 2025 debasement trade while Bitcoin remains range-bound.

“While gold may clearly be winning the 2025 debasement trade on price performance, the comparison masks a more nuanced market reality. Gold’s recent run to new all-time highs and 67% YTD gains reflect classical defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market environment defined by fiscal excess, geopolitical strain, and macro policy uncertainty. Increased central bank accumulation, a softer dollar, and persistent inflation risks have reinforced gold’s role as the market’s preferred defensive asset,” he said.

Youssef added that Bitcoin’s behavior this year has diverged sharply from the digital-gold narrative.

“Bitcoin, by contrast, has recently failed to deliver on the hedge narrative. The asset has not traded like digital gold in 2025, owing to its heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. BTC’s upside is now tied to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity, and risk sentiment, rather than to monetary debasement alone,” he highlighted.

Mega-Whale Addresses Are Quietly Declining

Large holders are also stepping back.

The number of Bitcoin addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC has fallen from 92 in early December to 88. That decline came alongside falling prices, not accumulation.

These addresses often represent institutional-scale players. Their reduction adds another layer of confirmation that smart money is not positioning aggressively for upside here.

Bitcoin Remains Below a Critical Long-Term Moving Average

Bitcoin is still trading below its 365-day moving average near $102,000, a level last decisively lost at the start of the 2022 bear market.

This moving average acts as both technical and psychological support. Failure to reclaim it suggests the market has shifted from trend continuation to regime risk. If price remains below this level, historical precedent points toward deeper downside zones near the traders’ realized price band around $72,000.

Bitcoin is below its 365-day moving average ($102K), a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.

If price fails to reclaim it, data suggest the next support lies near $72K, the Traders’ minimum realized price band. pic.twitter.com/VySVce5NY9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 5, 2025

Taken together, these signals support Timmer’s warning that Bitcoin may already be in a bear-market phase or closing in on that, even if the price has not fully reflected it yet. Capital has dried up, conviction holders are selling, dominance is rising defensively, and macro relief is being ignored.

That said, not all long-term cycle supports have broken yet. Those counter-signals, and the exact levels that decide whether this becomes a full bear market or a prolonged transition, come next.

Why the Bitcoin Bear Market Case Is Not Fully Settled Yet

Despite the growing evidence pointing toward a Bitcoin bear market, two long-term cycle indicators still argue against a confirmed structural breakdown.

Also, one reason the Bitcoin bear market case remains unresolved is how markets are interpreting the CPI slowdown. While cooling inflation typically benefits risk assets, the current response suggests investors are prioritizing safety and liquidity over growth.

That does not mean the CPI signal is wrong. It may simply be early, with Bitcoin historically reacting later than traditional hedges once liquidity expectations fully translate into capital flows.

These and the indicators we would discuss next do not negate the bearish signals discussed above. But they explain why this phase may still resolve as a prolonged transition rather than a full bear cycle.

Pi Cycle Top Has Not Triggered

One of Bitcoin’s most reliable cycle indicators, the Pi Cycle Top, has not flashed a peak signal. The indicator compares the 111-day moving average with the 350-day moving average multiplied by two.

Historically, when these two lines cross, Bitcoin has been near or at major cycle tops.

As of now, the two lines remain widely separated. That suggests Bitcoin is not in an overheated or euphoric phase, even after the October high.

This contradicts the idea raised by Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, who noted that the October peak near $125,000 fit prior cycle timing.

In past cycles, true bear markets began after clear Pi Cycle confirmations. That signal is still absent.

The 2-Year SMA Remains the Line That Matters Most

The second and more immediate counter-argument is structural. Bitcoin is still trading near its 2-year simple moving average, which sits around $82,800.

This level has repeatedly acted as Bitcoin’s long-term trend divider. Monthly closes above the 2-year SMA have historically marked cycle survival.

Sustained closes below it have marked deep bear phases.

So far, Bitcoin has not confirmed a monthly close beneath this line.

That makes December’s monthly close critical. If Bitcoin holds above $82,800 into year-end, the market likely remains in a late-cycle transition rather than a confirmed Bitcoin bear market.

🚨 Bitcoin in a critical zone on the 2Y SMA Multiplier

The 2Y SMA Multiplier is one of Bitcoin’s most respected cycle charts — and the current moment demands attention.

📍 Today, BTC is trading very close to the 2Y SMA, currently at $82,800.

📉 History matters:
Whenever… pic.twitter.com/jmIW9RSSGg

— Alphractal (@Alphractal) December 16, 2025

That outcome keeps open the possibility that 2026 reflects delayed upside rather than prolonged downside.

However, if December closes decisively below the 2-year SMA, downside projections toward the $65,000–$75,000 range, referenced by Timmer, gain structural backing.

TL;DR —Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch Now

The bearish framework also has clear invalidation levels. A reclaim of the 365-day moving average near $102,000 would materially weaken the bear market thesis. That would align with Tom Lee’s year-end Bitcoin price prediction.

That level marked the start of the 2022 bear market when it broke, and would signal renewed trend strength if recovered.

In simple terms:

• Above $82,800 into December close: transition phase remains intact
• Below $82,800 on a monthly basis: bear market risk escalates
• Back above $102,000: bullish structure begins rebuilding

For now, Bitcoin sits between conviction selling and long-term cycle support. The market is not confirming strength, but it is not fully breaking either.

The December close will decide which narrative carries into 2026.

The post Is Bitcoin Already in a Bear Market? Fidelity Chief Raises Concerns appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Harga XRP diam-diam masuk ke posisi yang tidak nyaman. Harga turun sekitar 9% selama 30 hari terakhir, momentum terasa lesu, dan percakapan positif di media sosial soal token ini mulai berubah jadi negatif. Sekilas, memang kelihatan lemah. Tapi, XRP punya sejarah bergerak lebih baik saat antusiasme menghilang.

Kali ini, masalah yang menekan sentimen ke bawah bisa jadi justru menjadi kondisi yang memicu pergerakan berikutnya. Mungkin dipimpin oleh kelompok holder tertentu.

Masalah: Sentimen positif anjlok saat holder jangka pendek keluar

Masalah utamanya bukan pada harga, melainkan pada sentimen.

Sentimen sosial positif XRP turun ke titik terendah dalam tiga bulan, merosot tajam dari level tertinggi sebelumnya. Metode ini melacak seberapa sering XRP dibahas secara positif di berbagai platform sosial. Saat turun drastis, itu biasanya menandakan kelelahan massa, bukan aksi beli panik.

Sejarah menunjukkan hal ini penting.

Pada pertengahan Oktober, penurunan sentimen serupa diikuti reli sekitar 15% beberapa hari setelahnya. Awal November, rendahnya sentimen positif juga dibarengi kenaikan 17% hanya dalam seminggu. Akhir November juga memperlihatkan pola yang sama, harga naik sekitar 14% setelah sentimen mencapai titik terendahnya.

Mau dapat lebih banyak insight tentang token? Daftar ke Daily Crypto Newsletter dari Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Kali ini, penurunan sentimen lebih dalam dibandingkan titik rendah sebelumnya.

😨 XRP is seeing far more negative social media commentary than average. Historically, this setup leads to price rises. When retail has doubts about a coin's ability to rise, the rise becomes significantly more likely.

🔗 Monitor $XRP sentiment here: https://t.co/hYbezd8qH0 pic.twitter.com/FOcIlRb9BQ

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 22, 2025

Penurunan sentimen tersebut bisa jadi didorong oleh holder jangka pendek. HODL Waves, indikator yang melacak berapa lama koin disimpan, menunjukkan bahwa wallet yang memegang XRP selama satu hari hingga satu minggu mengurangi porsi suplai mereka secara tajam. Sebelumnya bulan ini, kelompok ini memegang sekitar 2,97% dari total suplai. Sekarang angka itu sudah turun ke sekitar 1,18%, artinya turun lebih dari 60%.

Sederhananya, uang cepat, yang kemungkinan milik ritel, sudah kehilangan minat dan berpindah ke tempat lain. Inilah masalah yang menekan sentimen XRP. Bagian berikutnya akan menunjukkan kenapa hal ini tidak selalu buruk.

Solusinya: Holder Jangka Panjang Menjual Lebih Sedikit, Bukan Lebih Banyak

Di sinilah ceritanya mulai berubah.

Saat holder jangka pendek pergi, holder jangka panjang justru melakukan hal sebaliknya. Data yang memantau perubahan posisi neto holder jangka panjang memperlihatkan tekanan jual dari wallet ini turun cukup signifikan.

Sebelumnya di bulan ini, holder jangka panjang menjual sekitar 216 juta XRP per hari. Sekarang jumlah itu turun stabil menjadi sekitar 103 juta XRP, artinya aktivitas jual turun lebih dari 50%.

Ini penting, sebab holder jangka panjang biasanya bergerak lebih awal, bukan terlambat. Saat mereka memperlambat distribusi di tengah sentimen yang lemah, itu sering menjadi tanda akumulasi diam-diam atau menunggu momen yang strategis.

Masalah untuk XRP adalah apatisme massa. Namun solusinya, holder berpengalaman kini tidak lagi membanjiri pasar dengan suplai di tengah apatisme tersebut.

Level Harga XRP yang Menentukan Apakah Solusi Ini Berhasil

Jika pola sentimen ini terulang kembali, level harga XRP akan segera mengonfirmasinya.

Pergerakan awal menuju resistance berikutnya di US$2,03 menandakan potensi kenaikan sekitar 8% dari level saat ini. Jika zona tersebut bisa dilewati, maka peluang untuk reli yang lebih besar ke resistance berikutnya di US$2,09 dan US$2,17 pun terbuka, yaitu zona di mana reli sebelumnya sempat tertahan.

Di sisi bawah, XRP harus bertahan di support utama US$1,77. Jika breakdown terjadi di sana, maka skenario berbasis sentimen ini batal dan bisa memberi sinyal bahwa holder jangka panjang sudah tidak lagi menyerap suplai.

Untuk saat ini, struktur masih tetap terjaga.

Masalah terbesar XRP adalah sentimen positif yang sudah hilang. Tapi, sejarah menunjukkan bahwa ketika optimisme lenyap, holder lemah biasanya keluar duluan dan holder kuat mengambil alih. Jika pola ini terulang lagi, masalah yang menekan harga XRP hari ini justru bisa menjadi solusi yang membuka pergerakan berikutnya.

Harga AAVE sedang mengalami tekanan terus-menerus. Token ini turun hampir 5% dalam 24 jam terakhir dan lebih dari 18% dalam tujuh hari terakhir. Kelemahan ini terjadi bersamaan dengan sengketa tata kelola DAO yang masih berlangsung dan kekhawatiran aksi jual kembali muncul.

Secara permukaan, situasi ini terlihat seperti distribusi. Saldo di exchange meningkat, dan sentimen jadi lebih dingin. Tapi, di balik layar, ada hal yang berbeda. Walaupun suplai bergerak menuju exchange, holder besar diam-diam masuk, memandang penurunan harga ini sebagai peluang masuk, bukan untuk keluar. Sekarang pertanyaannya sederhana. Skenario bullish seperti apa yang tengah dipersiapkan whale, sementara pasar fokus pada risiko tata kelola?

Pasokan di Exchange Naik sementara Tekanan Governance Masih Berlanjut

Aksi jual di Aave tidak terjadi begitu saja. Ketegangan tata kelola telah berlangsung selama berminggu-minggu, menciptakan ketidakpastian soal aliran pendapatan dan kendali DAO. Ketidakpastian ini tercermin jelas pada data suplai on-chain.

🚨 @aave is having a full blown civil war

And it might be the biggest governance fight defi has ever seen.

Heres a clean breakdown 👇

Aave has two sides:
– Aave labs → a centralised entity founded by stani
– Aave dao → token holders who govern the protocol

Now heres what… pic.twitter.com/zFnhcN5vSc

— Observe (@obsrvgmi) December 22, 2025

Sejak 16 Desember (hari proposal Poison Pill), suplai AAVE di exchange naik dari sekitar 1,22 juta token menjadi sekitar 1,42 juta token. Artinya ada kenaikan hampir 200.000 AAVE, atau kurang lebih 16%, hanya dalam waktu lebih dari satu minggu.

Aave DAO Faces Governance Clash Over Control of Aave Labs 👀

An AAVE token holder has proposed a controversial “poison pill” strategy that would allow the Aave DAO to seize control of Aave Labs’ intellectual property, brand, and equity, effectively turning the company into a DAO… pic.twitter.com/SC1gd1KYhs

— Karon (@pangestu_karon) December 18, 2025

Peningkatan saldo di exchange biasanya menandakan potensi tekanan jual, dan pergerakan harga membuktikan kekhawatiran itu, karena AAVE turun hampir 18% dalam periode yang sama.

Ingin lebih banyak insight soal token seperti ini? Daftar Newsletter Harian Kripto dari Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Perubahan ini menarik karena membalikkan apa yang terjadi sebelumnya pada 16 Desember. Saat tekanan regulasi Aave mereda di pertengahan Desember, saldo exchange turun tajam karena kepercayaan mulai pulih. Sekarang, dengan isu tata kelola yang belum selesai, suplai kembali bergerak ke exchange, sehingga menambah kehati-hatian dalam jangka pendek.

Sendiri saja, situasi ini terlihat bearish. Tapi suplai di exchange hanya salah satu sisi dari pasar.

Whale beli di harga bawah saat ketakutan akan aksi jual mencapai puncak

Walaupun saldo di exchange naik, holder besar justru melakukan pergerakan sebaliknya.

Dalam 24 jam terakhir, whale AAVE meningkatkan kepemilikan mereka sebesar 12,63%, sehingga totalnya menjadi 183.987 AAVE. Itu berarti ada akumulasi baru sekitar 20.600 token, dengan nilai kurang lebih US$3,1 juta di harga saat ini.

Pada saat yang sama, wallet tokoh publik, yang meliputi dana terverifikasi dan entitas yang dipantau ketat, juga menambah kepemilikan sebesar 13,55%, sehingga saldo mereka menjadi 274.652 AAVE. Kenaikan ini sekitar 32.700 token, atau senilai sekitar US$5 juta.

Jika digabung, dua kelompok ini menambah lebih dari 53.000 AAVE hanya dalam satu hari. Di harga sekarang, artinya lebih dari US$8 juta sudah terakumulasi saat harga sedang lemah.

Divergensi ini penting. Ketika suplai di exchange naik tapi whale mengakumulasi, biasanya ini menandakan ketakutan jangka pendek sedang diserap oleh keyakinan jangka panjang. Alih-alih bereaksi pada isu tata kelola, holder besar nampaknya fokus pada struktur, bukan pada berita utama.

Hal ini membawa kita ke analisis grafik harga.

Apa Pemicu Harga AAVE Bullish yang Sedang Diantisipasi oleh Crypto Whale?

Pergerakan harga menjadi penghubung yang hilang.

AAVE berulang kali bertahan di zona US$147, membentuk pola inverse head-and-shoulders yang sedang berkembang. Pola ini biasanya mengindikasikan potensi pembalikan tren setelah tekanan turun yang lama, apalagi saat polanya muncul di tengah rasa takut yang tinggi.

Strukturnya masih tertekan di bawah garis neckline menurun, artinya penjual masih mendominasi tren secara umum. Tapi pemicunya jelas. Jika harga berhasil menembus US$182 secara meyakinkan, momentum mulai berubah. Menembus US$193 akan mengonfirmasi breakout dan membuka peluang naik menuju US$207, lalu US$232, dengan target pemulihan lebih tinggi di US$248.

Risikonya juga jelas. Jika AAVE turun di bawah US$147, struktur bullish ini patah. Hal itu kemungkinan akan memicu tekanan jual baru, sehingga risiko harga turun ke kisaran US$127. Untuk saat ini, whale nampaknya bertaruh support akan tetap kuat dan struktur akan mengarah ke atas.

XRP price has quietly slipped into an uncomfortable spot. The price is down about 9% over the past 30 days, momentum feels stale, and positive social chatter around the token has turned noticeably sour. At first glance, that looks like weakness. But XRP has a history of doing its best work when enthusiasm disappears.

This time, the problem dragging sentiment lower may also be the exact condition that sets up the next move. Possibly led by a key holder group.

The Problem: Positive Sentiment Collapses as Short-Term Holders Exit

The core issue is not price. It is sentiment.

XRP’s positive social sentiment has dropped to a three-month low, falling sharply from recent highs. This metric tracks how often XRP is discussed positively across social platforms. When it collapses, it signals crowd fatigue rather than panic buying.

History shows this matters.

In mid-October, a similar sentiment drop preceded a rally of roughly 15% over the following days. In early November, another local low in positive sentiment was followed by a 17% advance within a week. Late November showed the same pattern, with prices rising about 14% after sentiment hit a trough.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This time, the sentiment drop is deeper than those prior lows.

😨 XRP is seeing far more negative social media commentary than average. Historically, this setup leads to price rises. When retail has doubts about a coin's ability to rise, the rise becomes significantly more likely.

🔗 Monitor $XRP sentiment here: https://t.co/hYbezd8qH0 pic.twitter.com/FOcIlRb9BQ

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 22, 2025

That sentiment dip could be powered by the short-term holders. HODL Waves, which track how long coins have been held, show that wallets holding XRP for one day to one week have reduced their supply share sharply. This cohort held about 2.97% of the supply earlier this month. That figure has now fallen to roughly 1.18%, a drop of more than 60%.

In simple terms, fast, possibly retail, money has lost interest and moved on. That is the problem weighing on XRP sentiment. The next section highlights why it isn’t such a bad thing.

The Solution: Long-Term Holders Are Selling Less, Not More

Here is where the story changes.

While short-term holders are exiting, long-term holders are doing the opposite. Data tracking long-term holder net position change shows that selling pressure from these wallets has dropped meaningfully.

Earlier this month, long-term holders were selling roughly 216 million XRP per day. That figure has steadily fallen to about 103 million XRP, a reduction of more than 50% in selling activity.

This matters because long-term holders tend to act early, not late. When they slow distribution during periods of weak sentiment, it often signals quiet accumulation or strategic patience.

The problem for XRP is crowd apathy. The solution is that experienced holders are no longer feeding supply into that apathy.

XRP Price Levels That Decide Whether the Solution Works

If this sentiment-driven setup plays out again, the XRP price levels will confirm it quickly.

An initial move toward the next resistance at $2.03 implies an upside of roughly 8% from current levels. Clearing that zone would open room for a larger push toward the next resistance bands, $2.09 and $2.17, where prior rallies stalled.

On the downside, XRP must hold its key support at $1.77. A breakdown there would invalidate the sentiment-driven thesis and signal that long-term holders are no longer absorbing supply.

For now, the structure remains intact.

XRP’s biggest problem is that positive sentiment has vanished. But history shows that when optimism disappears, weak hands leave first and strong hands step in. If that pattern repeats, the same problem weighing on the XRP price today could become the solution that unlocks its next move.

The post XRP Sentiment Has Collapsed — And That May Be the Setup Bulls Are Waiting For appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The AAVE price has been under steady pressure. The token is down nearly 5% over the past 24 hours and more than 18% over the past seven days. That weakness has played out alongside ongoing DAO governance disputes and renewed sell-off fears.

On the surface, this looks like a distribution. Exchange balances are rising, and sentiment has cooled. But under the hood, something does not line up. While supply is moving toward exchanges, large holders have quietly stepped in, treating the sell-off as an entry point rather than an exit. The question now is simple. What bullish setup are whales positioning for while the market focuses on governance risk?

Exchange Supply Rises as Governance Pressure Lingers

Aave’s sell-off did not appear out of nowhere. Governance tensions have been building for weeks, creating uncertainty around revenue flows and DAO control. That uncertainty has shown up clearly in on-chain supply data.

🚨 @aave is having a full blown civil war

And it might be the biggest governance fight defi has ever seen.

Heres a clean breakdown 👇

Aave has two sides:
– Aave labs → a centralised entity founded by stani
– Aave dao → token holders who govern the protocol

Now heres what… pic.twitter.com/zFnhcN5vSc

— Observe (@obsrvgmi) December 22, 2025

Since December 16 (Poison Pill proposal day), AAVE supply on exchanges has climbed from roughly 1.22 million tokens to about 1.42 million tokens. That is an increase of nearly 200,000 AAVE, or roughly 16%, in just over a week.

Aave DAO Faces Governance Clash Over Control of Aave Labs 👀

An AAVE token holder has proposed a controversial “poison pill” strategy that would allow the Aave DAO to seize control of Aave Labs’ intellectual property, brand, and equity, effectively turning the company into a DAO… pic.twitter.com/SC1gd1KYhs

— Karon (@pangestu_karon) December 18, 2025

Rising exchange balances usually signal potential selling pressure, and the price action confirms that concern, with AAVE sliding almost 18% over the same period.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This shift is notable because it reverses what happened earlier in the month, on December 16. When Aave’s regulatory overhang eased in mid-December, exchange balances dropped sharply as confidence improved. Now, with governance issues dragging on, supply has moved back toward exchanges, reinforcing near-term caution.

On its own, this setup looks bearish. But the exchange supply is only one side of the market.

Whales Buy the Dip as Sell-Off Fears Peak

While exchange balances have increased, large holders have moved in the opposite direction.

Over the past 24 hours, Aave whales increased their holdings by 12.63%, bringing their total stash to 183,987 AAVE. That implies fresh accumulation of roughly 20,600 tokens, worth about $3.1 million at current prices.

At the same time, public figure wallets, which include verified funds and well-tracked entities, raised their holdings by 13.55%, lifting their balance to 274,652 AAVE. That increase represents roughly 32,700 tokens, or about $5 million.

Combined, these two cohorts added more than 53,000 AAVE in a single day. At the current price, that is over $8 million accumulated directly into weakness.

This divergence matters. When exchange supply rises, but whales accumulate, it often reflects short-term fear being absorbed by longer-term conviction. Instead of reacting to governance noise, large holders appear to be positioning around structure, not headlines.

That brings us to the chart.

The Bullish AAVE Price Trigger Whales Are Positioning For?

The price action provides the missing link.

AAVE has repeatedly defended the $147 zone, forming the head of a developing inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern typically signals a possible trend reversal after prolonged downside pressure, especially when it forms during elevated fear.

The structure remains compressed under a descending neckline line, meaning sellers still control the broader trend. But the trigger is clear. A decisive move above $182 would begin to shift momentum. Clearing $193 would confirm the breakout and open upside toward $207, then $232, with $248 as the larger recovery target.

The risk is equally defined. If AAVE loses $147, the bullish structure breaks. That would likely invite renewed selling pressure, with downside risk toward $127. For now, whales appear to be betting that support holds, and structure resolves higher.

The post Whales Add $3 Million in AAVE as Governance Uncertainty Pressures Price appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Hedera sedang bergerak ke zona berisiko. Dalam sebulan terakhir, tekanan beli turun hampir 90%, sementara harga HBAR terus turun. Sementara pasar aset kripto secara luas mencoba untuk stabil, Hedera sepertinya tidak mendapatkan respons yang sama, apalagi jika kita lihat di grafik.

Pembeli mulai menjauh alih-alih memanfaatkan penurunan harga. Pada titik ini, penurunan lebih lanjut bukan lagi kemungkinan kecil. Maka, itu mulai terlihat sebagai skenario dasar.

Spot buying hampir hilang karena tren turun tetap bertahan

Peringatan paling jelas terlihat pada pasar spot HBAR.

Pada pekan yang berakhir 10 November, Hedera mencatat arus keluar spot sekitar US$26,7 juta. Ini menunjukkan pembelian besar karena koin berpindah dari exchange. Namun, pada pekan yang berakhir 15 Desember, jumlah tersebut turun menjadi hanya US$2,4 juta. Artinya, dalam waktu sedikit lebih dari sebulan, tekanan beli ambruk sekitar 90%.

Ini penting karena harga HBAR sudah bergerak dalam channel menurun, yang termasuk pola bearish. Saat pembeli menghilang di tengah tren turun, penjual cuma butuh sedikit dorongan untuk mendorong harga lebih rendah. Pasar pun jadi rapuh.

Money Flow Index atau MFI mengonfirmasi lemahnya kondisi ini. MFI mengukur seberapa banyak dana yang masuk atau keluar dari suatu aset lewat pergerakan harga dan volume. Dalam kasus HBAR, MFI terus mencetak nilai terendah baru sejalan dengan harga, dan kini sudah jatuh ke zona oversold. Bukannya berbalik naik, indikator justru makin turun.

Ingin insight token seperti ini? Daftar ke Newsletter Harian Crypto Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Hal ini menunjukkan tidak ada pembelian di saat harga koreksi, yang berarti keyakinan pada harga sangat minim.

Mengapa Skenario Breakdown Harga HBAR Semakin Kuat

Dengan permintaan spot yang lemah dan arus dana yang menurun, pergerakan harga HBAR-lah yang menjadi penentu akhir.

HBAR saat ini berada dekat batas bawah channel turun. Level kunci pertama yang perlu diamati adalah US$0,106. Kalau harga jatuh di bawah level itu pada penutupan harian, target berikutnya ada di kisaran US$0,095, sekitar 12% lebih rendah dari level saat ini. Jika harga mencapai sana, penurunan bearish semakin terkonfirmasi sehingga target US$0,078 pun ikut mengancam.

Pergerakan ini akan mengonfirmasi kelanjutan tren turun, bukan sekadar koreksi sementara.

Agar skenario bearish ini gagal, HBAR harus mengalami perubahan besar. Harga harus kembali menembus berbagai zona resistance dan mampu ditutup di dekat US$0,155. Dengan tekanan beli spot ambruk dan MFI yang tetap lemah, peluangnya sepertinya sangat kecil saat ini.

Kesimpulannya cukup jelas. Dengan pembeli yang hampir menghilang, arus dana turun, dan harga sudah terjebak di pola bearish, risiko breakdown bukan sekadar kemungkinan saja. Saat ini, justru itu yang menjadi skenario utama atau bahkan kemungkinan paling mungkin terjadi.

Harga Zcash sulit menemukan arah yang jelas dalam beberapa minggu terakhir, meskipun naik lebih dari 600% dalam waktu 3 bulan. Token ini bergerak sideways, sementara bagian lain dari pasar aset kripto mencoba melakukan reli kecil.

Hal ini terjadi walau ada perhatian baru dari sosok ternama di dunia kripto. Dalam sebuah wawancara terbaru, Arthur Hayes berbicara positif mengenai desain Zcash.

Meski begitu, pergerakan harga ZEC menunjukkan keraguan walaupun ada kenaikan hampir 4% secara harian. Trader kini mempertimbangkan apakah support ini penting untuk jangka pendek atau grafik akan berbicara lebih dulu.

Arthur Hayes Bilang Seperti Ini Tentang Model Privasi

Arthur Hayes adalah co-founder BitMEX dan sosok yang terkenal di pasar aset kripto. Dalam wawancara terbarunya bersama Kyle Chasse, Hayes memaparkan alasan kenapa pandangannya terhadap privacy coin berubah seiring waktu.

GET ALL THE ALPHAhttps://t.co/BvfWWoPVMr

— Kyle Chassé 🐸 (@Kylechasse) December 18, 2025

Ia menjelaskan, dulu Monero dianggap privacy coin terkuat, namun data dan upgrade baru mengubah cara berpikirnya. Hayes juga menyoroti kemajuan Zcash, terutama pada transaksi terlindungi dan peningkatan kriptografi.

“That’s one of the reasons why I moved from the Monero camp into the Zcash camp when we talk about privacy coins,” ujar Hayes pada menit ke-30 wawancara.

Yang perlu diperhatikan adalah konteksnya. Hayes tidak membahas target harga Zcash. Dia juga tidak mengatakan agar pembeli segera masuk. Komentarnya lebih menekankan teknologi dan desain, bukan soal waktu masuk pasar.

Perbedaan inilah yang membuat harga belum merespons sampai sekarang.

Mengapa harga Zcash belum bereaksi

Meski mendapat perhatian dari Arthur Hayes, harga Zcash belum banyak bergerak. Alasannya bisa dilihat di grafik.

Pertama, crossover EMA bearish mulai terbentuk. EMA adalah exponential moving average, yang menunjukkan harga rata-rata dengan bobot lebih besar pada pergerakan terbaru.

Kalau EMA 20-hari bergerak di bawah EMA 50-hari, biasanya artinya penjual jangka pendek lebih dominan daripada pembeli. Saat ini, EMA 20-hari hampir menembus ke bawah EMA 50-hari. Hal ini membuat trader tetap waspada.

Mau insight token lain seperti ini? Daftar Newsletter Harian Crypto dari Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Kedua, on-balance volume (OBV) tidak mendukung harga. OBV melacak apakah volume masuk atau keluar. Antara 12 Desember sampai 18 Desember, harga Zcash bergerak turun dan OBV juga melemah. Ini menandakan pembeli belum menambah kekuatan. Jika OBV tidak naik, reli sering gagal dan tekanan turun biasanya sulit berbalik arah.

Kalau digabungkan, gambaran menjadi jelas. Crossover EMA memperingatkan tekanan jangka pendek. OBV menunjukkan kelemahan dari sisi pembeli. Hal ini menjelaskan kenapa harga Zcash masih terjebak dan menunggu arah yang pasti.

Komentar Arthur Hayes memang memberi kepercayaan jangka panjang, tapi grafik memperlihatkan trader masih menunggu sinyal teknikal. Sampai pembeli masuk dengan volume nyata, harga sepertinya akan tetap belum pasti.

Faktor yang Bisa Menentukan Pergerakan Harga Zcash Selanjutnya

Aliran modal besar menjadi petunjuk paling jelas. Indikator CMF atau Chaikin Money Flow naik antara 11 Desember hingga 18 Desember, walau harga ZEC mengalami koreksi. Pola ini menunjukkan holder besar mulai berminat meski harga masih lemah.

namun, CMF masih di bawah garis nol. Hal itu penting. Jika berhasil tembus ke atas nol, biasanya mengonfirmasi pembelian nyata. Pada kasus sebelumnya, seperti awal November, harga langsung reli setelah CMF menembus level ini.

Untuk Zcash, levelnya sudah jelas. Penutupan harian yang bersih di atas US$434 akan menunjukkan pembeli mulai berkuasa lagi. Jika itu tercapai, zona penting berikutnya berada di sekitar US$516.

Di sisi bawah, US$371 menjadi support kunci pertama. Jika harga turun di bawah level tersebut, para penjual bisa mendorongnya ke US$301, di mana minat beli sebelumnya muncul.

Crypto whale mulai beli lagi. Setelah rilis data US CPI yang lebih rendah, para holder besar mulai menambah risiko alih-alih menguranginya. Inflasi yang melandai, data pasar tenaga kerja yang melemah, dan harapan pemotongan suku bunga yang meningkat perlahan mulai mengubah cara alokasi modal. Aktivitas pembelian ini pun tidak hanya terkonsentrasi di satu tema saja.

Whale menambah eksposur ke sektor decentralized finance, narasi politik, serta meme coin legendaris. Kombinasi tersebut penting karena menandakan ini bukan sekadar satu transaksi, tetapi posisi awal untuk perubahan sentimen yang lebih luas, walaupun harga saat ini masih banyak bergerak sideways.

Curve DAO Token (CRV)

Crypto whale mulai beli token Curve DAO meski pasar aset kripto secara umum masih kesulitan mencari arah. CRV masih turun sekitar 20% dalam sebulan terakhir, namun perilaku whale menunjukkan pelemahan ini dianggap sebagai peluang, bukan tanda peringatan.

Dalam 24 jam terakhir, whale menaikkan kepemilikan CRV mereka sebesar 8,56%, sehingga total mencapai 3,96 juta token. Artinya, sekitar 312.000 CRV ditambahkan hanya dalam sehari. Jumlah ini memang tidak sangat besar, tetapi waktu pembeliannya penting. Whale masuk saat sentimen masih sensitif, setelah rilis data US CPI yang lebih rendah dan memperbaiki prospek pemotongan suku bunga jangka panjang.

Ingin insight token seperti ini? Daftar Newsletter Harian Crypto Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Dari sisi harga, CRV memang masih terlihat lemah secara teknikal. Token ini mencetak lower low dari awal November sampai pertengahan Desember. Tapi, momentum menunjukkan cerita berbeda. Indikator Relative Strength Index atau RSI, yang mengukur kekuatan beli dan jual, justru membentuk higher low dalam periode yang sama. Divergensi ini sering menjadi sinyal bahwa tekanan jual mulai reda dan potensi pembalikan tren dapat terjadi.

Untuk konfirmasi, CRV perlu merebut kembali level US$0,38, dengan US$0,41 sebagai level kunci yang sejak awal Desember selalu menahan reli harga.

Breakout bersih di area ini bisa mendukung potensi reversal. Jika harga turun di bawah US$0,33, setup jadi lemah dan keyakinan whale bisa memudar.

Official Trump (TRUMP)

Token Resmi Trump kembali masuk radar whale setelah rilis data US CPI yang lebih rendah diperkirakan akan mengurangi tekanan di aset berisiko. TRUMP masih turun hampir 40% dalam tiga bulan terakhir, tapi pelemahan ini justru menarik akumulasi awal. Seiring inflasi yang menurun dan ekspektasi pemangkasan bunga yang kembali naik, token berbau politik mulai mendapat perhatian baru.

Dalam 24 jam terakhir, crypto whale menambah kepemilikan TRUMP mereka sebanyak 17,97%, sehingga bertambah lebih dari 680.000 token. Dengan harga saat ini, penambahan ini saja nilainya sekitar US$3,5 juta. Ini bukan aksi kejar harga, melainkan akumulasi awal ketika sentimen masih hati-hati.

Grafik membantu menjelaskan timing-nya. Smart Money Index, yang memantau bagaimana trader berpengalaman mengambil posisi, mulai bergerak naik setelah sejak 9 Desember trennya menurun. Pergeseran ini mengisyaratkan bahwa pembeli yang paham pasar mungkin sedang bersiap untuk rebound, bukan sekadar bereaksi terlambat.

Level harga tetap jadi kunci. TRUMP harus tetap di atas US$4,96 supaya struktur recovery ini terjaga. Jika pembeli berhasil breakout bersih di atas US$6,05—level yang sudah menahan reli sejak akhir November—maka momentum kenaikan bisa semakin kuat. Sebaliknya, daily close di bawah US$4,96 akan melemahkan tesis whale dan memperbesar risiko penurunan.

Untuk sementara, crypto whale sepertinya bertaruh bahwa inflasi yang melandai dan likuiditas politik yang meningkat mampu membuat TRUMP stabil sebelum pasar lebih luas bereaksi.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

Dogecoin menjadi nama terbesar di daftar ini berdasarkan data market cap. Dalam 24 jam terakhir, whale Dogecoin kelas menengah yang memegang 10 juta hingga 100 juta DOGE menambah saldo gabungan mereka dari 17,38 miliar menjadi 17,40 miliar DOGE. Artinya penambahan sekitar 20 juta DOGE.

Dengan harga saat ini, jumlah itu setara US$2,6 juta untuk akumulasi. Memang bukan angka besar, tapi waktunya sangat penting. Sebelumnya wallet-wallet ini justru mengurangi eksposur, sehingga aksi setelah rilis data US CPI ini bisa jadi berarti sesuatu.

Para whale nampaknya sedang bereaksi atas tanda-tanda awal terbentuknya dasar teknikal. Dari 4 November hingga 18 Desember, harga Dogecoin sempat mencetak posisi rendah yang baru, tapi Relative Strength Index (RSI) justru membuat posisi rendah yang lebih tinggi. Divergensi bullish ini sering menunjukkan tekanan jual mulai berkurang. Dogecoin sendiri sudah naik sekitar 2–3% dalam 24 jam terakhir, menandakan para pembeli sedang mulai mencoba masuk lagi ke pasar.

Level kunci sudah terlihat jelas. US$0,13 menjadi batas awal yang menahan rebound belakangan ini. Jika harga bisa menutup harian di atas US$0,15, itu bakal mengonfirmasi pemulihan tren. Pergerakan ini artinya ada potensi kenaikan sekitar 19% dari level saat ini dan membuka peluang target-target naik selanjutnya.

Risiko tetap ada. Jika harga jatuh di bawah US$0,12, skenario rebound bisa batal dan membuka peluang penurunan lebih dalam. Untuk saat ini, para crypto whale membeli Dogecoin dengan hati-hati, bertaruh bahwa tekanan ekonomi makro yang mulai reda bisa menghidupkan kembali minat terhadap meme coin.

Hedera is moving into a risky zone. Over the past month, buying pressure has dropped by nearly 90%, even as the HBAR price continues to slide. While the broader crypto market is trying to stabilize, Hedera is not seeing the same response, especially on the charts.

Buyers are stepping away instead of buying dips. At this point, a downside break is no longer a low-chance outcome. It is starting to look like the base case.

Spot Buying Has Almost Vanished as Downtrend Stays Intact

The HBAR spot market shows the clearest warning.

In the week ending November 10, Hedera recorded spot outflows of approximately $26.7 million, indicating strong buying as coins moved off exchanges. By the week ending December 15, that number fell to just $2.4 million. That is a collapse of roughly 90% in buying pressure in little more than a month.

This is significant because the price is already trading within a descending channel, a bearish pattern. When buyers disappear during a downtrend, sellers need little force to push the price lower. The market becomes fragile.

The Money Flow Index, or MFI, confirms this weakness. MFI tracks how much money is entering or leaving an asset using both price and volume. In HBAR’s case, MFI has been making lower lows along with price and has now slipped into oversold territory. Instead of bouncing, it keeps trending down.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

That indicates that dips are not being bought, suggesting minimal price-specific conviction.

Why the HBAR Price Breakdown Scenario Is Gaining Weight

With weak spot demand and falling money flow, the HBAR price action becomes the final judge.

HBAR is sitting near the lower boundary of its descending channel. The first key level to watch is $0.106. If price loses this level on a daily close, the next downside target comes in near $0.095, which is about 12% lower than current levels. Reaching there would mean a confirmed bearish breakdown, bringing even $0.078 into the mix.

That move would confirm continuation of the downtrend rather than a temporary dip.

For the bearish case to break, HBAR would need a major shift. Price would have to reclaim several resistance zones and close near $0.155. Given the collapse in spot buying and the persistence of weak MFI, that outcome appears unlikely at present.

The conclusion is straightforward. With buyers largely gone, money flow falling, and price already trapped in a bearish structure, a breakdown is no longer just a risk. For now, it is the base case, or rather a likely outcome.

The post 90% of HBAR Buyers Are Gone — Is Price Breakdown Now the Base Case? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Zcash price has struggled to find a clear direction over the past few weeks, despite being up over 600% in the 3-month window. The token is moving sideways even as other parts of the crypto market attempt small rebounds.

This comes despite fresh attention from a high-profile voice in crypto. In a recent interview, Arthur Hayes spoke positively about Zcash’s design.

Still, the ZEC price action shows hesitation despite the near 4% uptick, day-on-day. Traders are now weighing whether this support matters in the short term or if charts will decide first.

Arthur Hayes Said This About The Privacy Model

Arthur Hayes is the co-founder of BitMEX and a well-known crypto market figure. In a recent interview with Kyle Chasse, Hayes explained why his view on privacy coins has changed over time.

GET ALL THE ALPHAhttps://t.co/BvfWWoPVMr

— Kyle Chassé 🐸 (@Kylechasse) December 18, 2025

He said that while Monero was once seen as the strongest privacy option, new data and upgrades shifted his thinking. Hayes highlighted Zcash’s progress, particularly in shielded transactions and cryptographic improvements.

“That’s one of the reasons why I moved from the Monero camp into the Zcash camp when we talk about privacy coins,” he said, 30 minutes into interview.

What matters here is context. Hayes did not talk about Zcash price targets. He did not say buyers should rush in. His comments focused on technology and design, not market timing.

That distinction explains why the price has not reacted yet.

Why Zcash Price Has Not Reacted Yet

Despite the attention from Arthur Hayes, the Zcash price has not moved much. The reason is visible on the chart.

First, a bearish EMA crossover is forming. EMA means exponential moving average. It shows the average price but gives more weight to recent moves.

When the 20-day moves below the 50-day, it usually means short-term sellers are stronger than buyers. Right now, the 20-day EMA is very close to crossing below the 50-day. This keeps traders cautious.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Second, on-balance volume (OBV) is not helping the price. OBV tracks whether volume is flowing in or out. Between December 12 and December 18, the Zcash price trended lower, and OBV also weakened. This indicates that buyers are not yet adding strength. Without a rising OBV, rallies often fail, and downside moves usually do not reverse.

Put together, the picture is clear. The EMA crossover warns of short-term pressure. OBV shows weak follow-through from buyers. This explains why the Zcash price remains stuck and waits for a clear direction.

Arthur Hayes’ comments provide long-term confidence, but charts indicate that traders are waiting for technical evidence. Until buyers step in with volume, the price is likely to remain undecided.

What Could Decide the Next Zcash Price Move

Large capital flows provide the clearest clue. The CMF or Chaikin Money Flow indicator has been rising between December 11 and December 18, while the ZEC price corrected. This pattern means larger holders are showing interest even while the prices remain weak.

However, CMF is still below the zero line. That matters. A move above zero often confirms real buying. In past cases, like in early November, the price followed strongly once the CMF crossed that level.

For Zcash, the levels are clear. A clean daily close above $434 would show buyers are taking control again. If that happens, the next important zone sits near $516.

On the downside, $371 is the first key support. If the price slips below that level, sellers could push it toward $301, where previous buying interest appeared.

The post Zcash Price Awaits Direction Despite Arthur Hayes Favoring Its Privacy Model — But Why? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Harga XRP sedang mendekati titik keputusan penting menjelang akhir tahun 2025. Harga masih lemah di timeframe yang lebih besar, turun hampir 16% secara bulanan. Tapi mulai terlihat celah pada tekanan jual. Indikator momentum dan data on-chain kini menunjukkan penjual mulai kehilangan kendali, meskipun harga belum mengonfirmasi pembalikan tren.

Sekarang, situasinya bukan lagi soal menebak reli. Ini tentang apakah berkurangnya tekanan jual cukup kuat untuk mendorong harga XRP menembus dinding suplai yang sudah dikenal. Dan dinding itu masih menjadi faktor penting.

Penjual Mulai Kehilangan Kontrol?

Tanda-tanda awal rebound terlihat di chart 12 jam, di mana pergeseran tren sering kali muncul lebih dulu.

Antara 21 November dan 18 Desember, harga XRP mencetak lower low. Pada periode yang sama, RSI justru membuat higher low. RSI (Relative Strength Index) mengukur momentum. Ketika harga turun tetapi RSI naik, ini memberi sinyal bullish divergence.

Mau dapat wawasan token terbaru seperti ini? Daftar ke Newsletter Harian Crypto Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Pola ini menunjukkan, walaupun harga XRP terus turun, kekuatan penjualan mulai melemah. Para penjual masih aktif, tetapi mereka sudah tidak mampu mendorong momentum lebih rendah dengan kekuatan yang sama.

Data on-chain pun mendukung pergeseran ini.

Data XRP HODLer Net Position Change melacak apakah holder jangka panjang menambah atau menjual koin. Pada 11 Desember, penjualan bersih sempat mencapai sekitar 216,9 juta XRP. Lalu pada 18 Desember, angka ini turun menjadi sekitar 132,2 juta XRP.

Artinya, tekanan jual harian berkurang sekitar 39%.

Sederhananya, penjual masih ada, namun jauh lebih sedikit koin yang masuk ke pasar. Ini sejalan dengan bullish divergence di RSI dan memperkuat argumen bahwa tekanan jual mulai memudar.

Hal ini tidak menjamin akan terjadi reli. Tetapi, kondisi pasar tidak lagi sepenuhnya dikuasai penjual.

Mengapa Satu Level Harga XRP Masih Menentukan Hasilnya

Meskipun tekanan jual semakin berkurang, XRP masih menghadapi ujian struktur besar di atasnya.

Data cost basis on-chain menunjukkan adanya klaster suplai besar antara US$1,96 hingga US$1,97. Sekitar 1,82 miliar XRP telah terakumulasi di zona ini. Data cost basis merekam di mana holder membeli koin mereka. Saat harga kembali ke level tersebut, banyak holder mencapai titik impas dan cenderung menjual.

Ini membuat rentang US$1,96–US$1,97 sebagai zona resistance yang kuat.

Chart harga pun menegaskan hal ini. Harga XRP berulang kali gagal bertahan di atas US$1,96, dan rebound juga selalu tertahan di area yang sama. Jika terbentuk pantulan dari level saat ini, di sinilah kemungkinan besar penjual akan muncul lagi.

Agar rebound benar-benar berubah menjadi pergeseran tren yang nyata, harga XRP harus mampu mencetak penutupan harian yang jelas di atas US$1,96. Tanpa konfirmasi tersebut, setiap pergerakan naik berisiko menjadi reli gagal berikutnya.

Pada sisi bawah, US$1,76 tetap menjadi level konfirmasi pembatalan utama. Jika harga menembus di bawah level ini, kemungkinan besar kendali penjual akan kembali, dan potensi penurunan bisa semakin dalam.

Intinya sudah jelas. Tekanan jual turun tajam, dan momentum bergerak membaik. Tapi, sampai XRP menembus US$1,96 dengan yakin, pasar masih terjebak di antara penjual yang melemah dan dinding suplai yang tangguh.

XRP price is nearing a critical decision point as 2025 approaches its final stretch. Price remains weak on higher timeframes, almost 16% down month-on-month. But cracks are starting to appear in selling pressure. Momentum indicators and on-chain data now suggest that sellers are losing control, even though price has not yet confirmed a reversal.

The setup is no longer about guessing a rally. It is about whether fading sell pressure is enough to push the XRP price through a known supply wall. And that wall still matters.

Sellers Are Losing Control?

Early signs of a rebound are showing up on the 12-hour chart, where trend shifts often appear first.

Between November 21 and December 18, the XRP price made a lower low. During the same period, the RSI made a higher low. RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures momentum. When price falls, but RSI improves, it signals bullish divergence.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This pattern suggests that, although the XRP price continued to decline, the selling momentum weakened. Sellers were still active, but they were no longer able to push momentum lower with the same force.

On-chain data supports this shift.

The XRP HODLer Net Position Change tracks whether long-term holders are adding or selling coins. On December 11, net selling peaked at roughly 216.9 million XRP. By December 18, that figure dropped to about 132.2 million XRP.

That is a decline of roughly 39% in daily selling pressure.

In simple terms, sellers are still present, but far fewer coins are being pushed onto the market. This aligns with the RSI divergence and strengthens the case that downside pressure is fading.

This does not guarantee a rally. But it does mean the market is no longer in full control of sellers.

Why One XRP Price Level Still Decides the Outcome

Even if selling pressure continues to ease, XRP still faces a major structural test overhead.

On-chain cost basis data shows a heavy supply cluster between $1.96 and $1.97. Around 1.82 billion XRP were accumulated in this zone. Cost basis data tracks where holders bought their coins. When price returns to those levels, many holders reach break-even and tend to sell.

This makes the $1.96–$1.97 range a powerful resistance zone.

The price chart confirms this. The XRP price has repeatedly failed to hold above $1.96, and rebounds have stalled near the same area. If a bounce develops from current levels, this is where sellers are most likely to reappear.

For the rebound to become a genuine trend shift, the XRP price must post a clean daily close above $1.96. Without that confirmation, any upside move risks becoming another failed rally.

On the downside, $1.76 remains the key invalidation level. A break below it would suggest that seller control is returning, opening the door to deeper losses.

The takeaway is clear. Selling pressure has dropped sharply, and momentum is improving. But until XRP clears $1.96 with conviction, the market remains trapped between weakening sellers and a stubborn supply wall.

The post XRP Selling Pressure Collapses 39%, But This Price Level Still Controls the Outcome appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Pi Coin price is showing early signs of support after a sharp mid-December drop. Since the December 16 low, Pi Coin has bounced over 8%, helped by steady exchange-side buying.

But while buying pressure has picked up, not all capital groups are convinced yet. The result is a market caught between support and hesitation, setting up a likely range move rather than a clean breakout. Right now, Pi Coin sits at a crossroads where inflows are improving, but conviction remains uneven.

Buying Pressure Builds as Capital Flows Turn Supportive

Exchange wallet data shows clear net buying over the past 24 hours.

Across major centralized exchanges, Pi Coin recorded a net outflow of roughly 414,420 PI, meaning more tokens left exchanges than entered. That usually points to buying rather than selling.

At current prices, this net buying represents approximately $83,000 in accumulation over a short period. Despite being a small exchange-based purchase, it is significant given PI’s seller-driven history.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Flow-based momentum supports this shift.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has risen by over 40% from its recent lows. CMF tracks whether big money is flowing into or out of an asset. Rising CMF alongside price stabilization suggests that large buyers are absorbing supply rather than chasing price.

The combined rise in buying pressure could have helped Pi Coin recover nearly 8% from its December 16 low, pushing the price back above the $0.19 line.

CMF is also nearing a breakout from a descending trendline. A clean break above that line, followed by a move above the zero level, would strengthen the case that this bounce has real backing. So far, the signals say buying is real, but still measured.

Why Pi Coin Price Likely Stays Range-Bound

Despite improving flows, smart money behavior remains cautious. The Smart Money Index continues to trend lower and has not confirmed the recent price rebound. That indicates that informed, longer-term buyers are not yet aggressively stepping in.

When buying pressure rises without smart money confirmation, the price often stabilizes instead of trending immediately.

That matches Pi Coin’s current structure.

The key support zone sits near $0.19, which has held multiple tests. A clean break below it would reopen downside risk toward $0.15.

On the upside, $0.21 acts as the first barrier. Without a strong push above that level, rallies are likely to stall.

This creates a roughly 10% range, with about 5% upside and 5% downside from current prices.

In short, Pi Coin is being supported by steady buying and improving money flow, but the lack of smart money participation suggests consolidation rather than continuation. Until that changes, Pi Coin is more likely to trade sideways than trend hard in either direction.

The post Pi Coin Likely to Consolidate in a Tight Range as Buying Rises Without Strong Conviction appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Harga Pi Coin mulai menunjukkan tanda-tanda support awal setelah penurunan tajam di pertengahan Desember. Sejak titik terendah pada 16 Desember, Pi Coin sudah naik lebih dari 8%, didukung oleh pembelian secara konsisten di exchange.

Tapi meski tekanan beli mulai meningkat, tidak semua kelompok modal yakin sepenuhnya. Akibatnya, pasar kini berada di tengah-tengah antara support dan keraguan, sehingga kemungkinan besar pergerakan harga akan sideways, bukan breakout yang bersih. Saat ini, Pi Coin ada di titik persimpangan, arus masuk semakin membaik, namun keyakinannya masih belum merata.

Tekanan Beli Meningkat dan Arus Modal Jadi Mendukung

Data wallet exchange menunjukkan arus beli bersih yang jelas selama 24 jam terakhir.

Di beberapa exchange terpusat utama, Pi Coin mencatat net outflow sekitar 414.420 PI, artinya lebih banyak token keluar dari exchange dibanding token yang masuk. Biasanya ini menandakan terjadi pembelian, bukan penjualan.

Pada harga saat ini, pembelian bersih ini setara dengan akumulasi sekitar US$83.000 dalam waktu singkat. Walaupun jumlah pembelian di exchange ini termasuk kecil, tetap penting mengingat riwayat Pi Coin yang cenderung banyak penjual.

Mau dapat insight token lain seperti ini? Daftar newsletter harian Editor Harsh Notariya seputar kripto di sini.

Momentum berbasis arus juga mendukung perubahan ini.

Indikator Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) telah naik lebih dari 40% dari titik terendahnya. CMF digunakan untuk melacak apakah uang besar sedang masuk atau keluar ke suatu aset. Kenaikan CMF bersamaan dengan harga yang mulai stabil menandakan pembeli besar kini menyerap suplai, bukan mengejar harga.

Kombinasi tekanan beli yang meningkat ini kemungkinan telah membantu Pi Coin pulih nyaris 8% dari posisi terendah 16 Desember, sehingga harganya kembali naik di atas level US$0,19.

CMF juga hampir breakout dari garis tren menurun. Jika berhasil breakout di atas garis tersebut lalu terus bergerak di atas level nol, maka penopang reli ini bisa semakin kuat. Sampai sekarang, sinyal yang muncul menunjukkan ada pembelian nyata, meski tetap terukur.

Mengapa Harga Pi Coin Nampaknya Tetap Bergerak di Rentang yang Sama

Meski arus mulai membaik, pergerakan smart money masih hati-hati. Smart Money Index masih turun dan belum mengonfirmasi rebound harga baru-baru ini. Ini artinya, pembeli yang sudah berpengalaman dan berpikir jangka panjang sejauh ini belum agresif masuk.

Ketika tekanan beli naik tanpa konfirmasi dari smart money, harga biasanya cenderung stabil dulu, belum langsung bergerak naik.

Hal ini memang sesuai dengan struktur Pi Coin saat ini.

Zona support utama berada di sekitar US$0,19 yang telah teruji berkali-kali. Jika harga breakout ke bawah area ini, maka risiko penurunan ke US$0,15 kembali terbuka.

Di sisi atas, area US$0,21 menjadi resistance pertama. Jika tidak ada dorongan kuat melewati level ini, reli cenderung tertahan.

Kondisi ini membentuk range sekitar 10%, dengan potensi naik 5% dan turun 5% dari harga sekarang.

Singkatnya, Pi Coin mendapat dukungan dari pembelian stabil dan aliran dana yang membaik, tapi minimnya peran smart money menunjukkan kecenderungan konsolidasi, bukan reli berkelanjutan. Sampai situasi berubah, Pi Coin besar kemungkinan akan bergerak sideways daripada membentuk tren yang kuat ke salah satu arah.

Pergerakan harga Ethereum memberikan sinyal yang beragam. Setelah terkoreksi lebih dari 3% dalam sehari, ETH mulai menunjukkan tanda-tanda rebound awal, tapi risiko penurunan masih belum hilang. Struktur grafik, data momentum, dan level biaya on-chain semuanya menandakan zona keputusan yang sempit.

Saat ini, Ethereum terjebak antara kemungkinan rebound atau penurunan yang lebih dalam. Sebenarnya, jarak antara kedua kemungkinan itu lebih sempit dari kelihatannya. Yang perlu diperhatikan, zona breakdown justru semakin dekat!

Sinyal Rebound Berada di Dalam Pola Segitiga Sempit

Ethereum sedang diperdagangkan di dalam pola segitiga yang semakin menyempit, struktur yang mencerminkan keragu-raguan antara pembeli dan penjual yang semakin besar. Harga sudah menekan ke arah garis tren bawah, biasanya zona ini menjadi area di mana tekanan jual mulai berkurang.

Antara 1 Desember sampai 17 Desember, ETH mencatat low yang lebih tinggi di harga. Di saat yang sama, Relative Strength Index (RSI), alat ukur momentum, justru membentuk low yang lebih rendah. Ini menimbulkan hidden bullish divergence, artinya tekanan jual mulai melemah.

Mau dapat insight token seperti ini? Daftar newsletter harian dunia aset kripto dari Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Setup seperti ini tidak menjamin akan terjadi reli. Tapi, ini mengisyaratkan tekanan turun sepertinya mulai habis seiring Ethereum mendekati support struktural, yaitu garis tren bawah segitiga tersebut. Secara sederhana, para penjual mulai melemah, sementara pembeli belum mengambil alih kendali.

Inilah yang membuat pergerakan berikutnya sangat sensitif terhadap level kunci.

Data Cost Basis Tunjukkan Di Mana Reli Harga Ethereum Bisa Terhambat

Data cost basis on-chain membantu menjelaskan mengapa pergerakan naik masih terbatas.

Zona resistance terkuat dalam waktu dekat berada di kisaran US$3.154 sampai US$3.179, di mana sekitar 2,8 juta ETH terkumpul. Ini adalah zona pasokan besar. Saat harga menyentuh rentang harga ini, banyak holder mencapai titik impas dan cenderung mengambil keuntungan dengan menjual.

Zona ini juga sangat dekat dengan resistance pada grafik di US$3.149, yang menandai potensi kenaikan hingga 11% dari harga saat ini. Walaupun harga Ethereum berhasil rebound, zona ini kemungkinan menarik aksi jual kecuali harga berhasil menutup harian dengan jelas di atasnya. Itulah sebabnya rebound tanpa penutupan harian di atas area ini tetap disebut sebagai koreksi, bukan perubahan tren.

Risiko penurunan justru lebih rawan.

Klaster support terpenting berada di antara US$2.801 sampai US$2.823. Rentang ini selama ini menjadi zona permintaan utama. Jika terjadi penutupan harian yang jelas di bawah US$2.801 (yang juga terlihat di grafik harga), situasinya perlu diwaspadai.

Penurunan ini hanya sekitar 1% saja, tapi dapat membuka peluang harga menuju US$2.617 yang merupakan support utama berikutnya di grafik.

Itulah yang membuat posisi saat ini berisiko untuk Ethereum. Kenaikan bisa terhambat di kisaran 11%, sedangkan risiko turun bisa terjadi hanya dengan penurunan kecil 1% saja.

Pergerakan tajam Bitcoin pada 17 Desember mengejutkan para trader. Dalam satu hari, BTC melonjak ke sekitar US$90.500 lalu langsung berbalik tajam dan turun menuju US$85.200. Dari titik tertinggi ke terendah, pergerakan itu lebih dari 5%, atau kurang lebih US$5.000.

Pergerakan ini bukan karena berita, melainkan karena struktur pasar. Tiga grafik berikut menjelaskan mengapa hal ini terjadi, mengapa berhenti tepat di titik tersebut, dan kenapa volatilitas serupa masih mungkin terjadi.

Pecahan Volume Sudah Isyaratkan Risiko sebelum Harga Turun

Sebelum koreksi itu terjadi, pergerakan harga BTC sebenarnya sudah menunjukkan tanda stres. Antara 15 hingga 17 Desember, harga Bitcoin di grafik harian mencetak higher low tipis. Sekilas, kondisi itu tampak stabil. Tapi On-Balance Volume (OBV) memberi gambaran berbeda.

OBV melacak apakah volume mendukung pergerakan harga. Pada periode tersebut, OBV gagal mengikuti harga naik dan justru membentuk lower low. Divergensi bearish itu menandakan distribusi. Sederhananya, harga masih bertahan, namun volume perlahan keluar secara diam-diam.

Ingin lebih banyak insight token seperti ini? Daftar ke Newsletter Crypto Harian Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Saat Bitcoin menuju US$90.500, pergerakan itu terjadi dengan partisipasi yang lemah. Hal ini membuat reli menjadi rapuh. Begitu aksi jual dimulai, tidak ada dukungan volume di bawahnya, sehingga koreksi langsung berubah menjadi whiplash tajam dalam satu hari.

Di bursa, “whiplash” artinya pergerakan cepat naik lalu turun tajam, atau sebaliknya, dalam waktu singkat.

Heatmap Cost Basis Menunjukkan Kenapa US$90.500 Ditolak dan US$85.200 Bertahan

Data cost basis on-chain menjelaskan titik balik utama pergerakan harga ini.

Heatmap cost basis memperlihatkan klaster pasokan yang padat di kisaran US$90.168 hingga US$90.591. Sekitar 115.188 BTC terakumulasi di zona ini. Saat harga kembali ke kisaran tersebut, banyak holder sudah berada di level impas.

Hal tersebut bisa menimbulkan tekanan jual secara langsung. Digabung dengan lemahnya OBV, klaster ini berfungsi layaknya batas atas. Reli berhenti dan akhirnya berbalik arah.

Di sisi bawah, ceritanya pun berubah.

Ada satu klaster kuat lainnya di kisaran US$84.845 hingga US$85.243. Inilah area support terpadat dalam jangka pendek di grafik. Saat harga jatuh, pembeli agresif masuk di zona ini. Itu sebabnya harga Bitcoin tidak anjlok lebih dalam, bahkan saat terjadi likuidasi paksa.

Jadi, pergerakan harga terkunci di situ. Penjual bertahan di US$90.500. Pembeli bertahan di US$85.200. Whiplash terjadi di dalam “dinding” tersebut.

Level Harga Bitcoin Sekarang yang Menentukan Apakah Volatilitas Kembali

Secara struktur, Bitcoin masih menjaga tren naik ringan dari titik terendah 21 November. Hal ini penting. Peristiwa volatilitas kemarin masih terjadi dalam rentang tersebut.

Untuk melanjutkan ke atas, ada satu level yang paling penting. Bitcoin harus mampu mencatat penutupan harian bersih di atas US$90.500. Level ini belum pernah ditembus lagi sejak 13 Desember. Tanpa penutupan harian di atas angka ini, setiap reli akan berisiko ditolak kembali.

Setelah itu, area US$92.200 sampai US$92.300 menjadi krusial. Data on-chain menunjukkan ada lagi klaster pasokan di sana. Trader sebaiknya siap menghadapi hambatan ekstra kecuali harga sukses menembus zona tersebut secara meyakinkan. Selain itu, trader yang membaca artikel ini disarankan memperhatikan penutupan harian di atas level-level kunci pada grafik, bukan breakout berbasis wick semata.

Di sisi bawah, area US$85.000-US$85.200 tetap jadi kunci penting. Selama klaster ini bertahan, tekanan turun lebih lanjut kecil kemungkinannya. Jika gagal, harga bisa menuju US$83.800, tetapi menembus US$85.000 butuh tekanan likuidasi baru.

Kesimpulannya sangat jelas. Pergerakan naik turun Bitcoin lebih dari 5% ini bukan terjadi secara acak. Hal ini terjadi karena volume yang lemah, pasokan besar di level biaya tertentu, serta likuiditas yang ketat. Sampai kondisi tersebut berubah, pergerakan tajam seperti ini tetap menjadi kenyataan di pasar aset kripto.

Ethereum price action is sending mixed signals. After correcting over 3% in a day, ETH is flashing early rebound signs, but downside risk has not cleared yet. The chart structure, momentum data, and on-chain cost levels all point to a narrow decision zone.

Right now, Ethereum is stuck between a possible bounce and a deeper breakdown. And the gap between those two outcomes is smaller than it looks. What’s worth noting is that the breakdown zone looms closer!

Rebound Signal Sits Inside a Tight Triangle

Ethereum is trading inside a narrowing triangle, a structure that reflects growing buyer-seller indecision. Price has compressed toward the lower trendline, often a zone where selling pressure starts to fade.

Between December 1 and December 17, ETH printed a higher low on price. At the same time, the RSI (Relative Strength Index), a momentum measuring tool, made a lower low. This creates hidden bullish divergence, meaning selling momentum is weakening.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This setup does not guarantee a rally. But it does suggest downside pressure may be exhausting as Ethereum approaches structural support, the lower triangle trendline. In simple terms, sellers are losing strength, but buyers have not taken control yet.

That makes the next move highly sensitive to key levels.

Cost Basis Data Shows Where Ethereum Price Rebound Could Stall

On-chain cost basis data helps explain why upside may remain capped.

The strongest near-term resistance sits between $3,154 and $3,179, where roughly 2.8 million ETH were accumulated. This is a heavy supply zone. When price revisits this range, many holders reach break-even and tend to sell.

This aligns closely with the chart resistance at $3,149, which marks an 11% upside from current levels. Even if the Ethereum price rebounds, this zone is likely to attract selling unless the price closes cleanly above it. That is why any bounce without a daily close above this area would still be considered corrective, not trend-changing.

The downside picture is more fragile.

The most important support cluster sits between $2,801 and $2,823. This range has acted as a key demand zone. A clean daily close below $2,801 (which also shows up on the price chart) would be a warning signal.

That move would represent barely a 1% downside break, but it could open the door toward $2,617, the next major support level on the chart.

This is what makes Ethereum’s current position dangerous. Upside could stall near 11%, but downside risk begins with just a 1% failure.

The post Ethereum Price Nears Possible Breakdown — Yet A Bounce Hope Emerges appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin’s violent move on December 17 caught traders off guard. In a single day, BTC surged to around $90,500 before reversing hard and sliding toward $85,200. From high to low, that was a swing of more than 5%, or roughly $5,000.

This was not news-driven. It was structure-driven. Three charts explain why the move happened, why it stalled exactly where it did, and why similar volatility remains possible.

Volume Breakdown Signaled Risk Before the Drop

Before the sell-off, the BTC price action already showed stress. Between December 15 and December 17, the Bitcoin price printed a marginal higher low on the daily chart. On the surface, that looked stable. But On-Balance Volume told a different story.

OBV tracks whether volume confirms price moves. During this period, OBV failed to follow the price higher and instead made a lower low. That bearish divergence signaled distribution. In simple terms, price was holding up, but volume was quietly flowing out.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

When Bitcoin pushed toward $90,500, it did so with weak participation. That made the rally fragile. Once selling started, there was no volume support beneath, which turned a pullback into a sharp intraday whiplash.

In markets, whiplash refers to a rapid move up followed immediately by a sharp move down, or vice versa.

Cost Basis Heatmap Shows Why $90,500 Rejected and $85,200 Held

On-chain cost basis data explains the exact turning points.

The cost basis heatmap shows a dense supply cluster between $90,168 and $90,591. Around 115,188 BTC were accumulated in this zone. When the price revisited this range, many holders reached break-even.

That could have created immediate sell pressure. Combined with OBV weakness, this cluster acted like a ceiling. The rally stalled, then reversed.

On the downside, the story changes.

Another strong cluster sits between $84,845 and $85,243. This is the most concentrated near-term support zone on the chart. As the price fell, buyers stepped in aggressively here. That is why the Bitcoin price did not collapse further, even during forced liquidations.

So the move was boxed in. Sellers defended $90,500. Buyers defended $85,200. The whiplash happened inside those walls.

Bitcoin Price Levels Now Decide If Volatility Returns

Structurally, Bitcoin is still holding a mild uptrend from the November 21 low. That matters. Yesterday’s volatility event was inside the range.

For upside continuation, one level stands out. Bitcoin must post a clean daily close above $90,500. That level has not been reclaimed since December 13. Without a close above it, any rally risks another rejection.

Above that, $92,200 to $92,300 becomes critical. On-chain data shows another supply cluster there. Traders should expect friction unless the price clears that zone decisively. Also, traders reading this might want to consider complete daily closes above key levels mentioned on the charts instead of wick-styled breakouts.

On the downside, $85,000-$85,200 remains the key zone. As long as this cluster holds, a deeper downside is less likely. A failure there would expose $83,800, but breaching $85,000 would require fresh liquidation pressure.

The takeaway is simple. Bitcoin’s 5%+ whiplash was not random. It was the result of weak volume, heavy supply at known cost levels, and tight liquidity. Until those structures change, sharp moves like this remain part of the crypto market’s reality.

The post Bitcoin’s 5% Whiplash Was No Accident — Charts Reveal The Full Story appeared first on BeInCrypto.