Dogecoin has been sliding over the past several days as bearish sentiment spreads across the broader crypto market. Despite the decline, the meme coin is currently overvalued due to heightened speculation surrounding the upcoming launch of Grayscale’s Dogecoin ETF (GDOG). 

This hype may translate into substantial transaction volume on Monday, potentially reshaping DOGE’s short-term outlook.

Dogecoin Investors Provide Support

Dogecoin’s NVT Ratio is spiking sharply, signaling a disconnect between valuation and on-chain activity.

The ratio compares market capitalization with transaction volume, and a surge typically indicates limited transactional utility relative to price. While DOGE is attracting strong social attention and broad support, its actual transaction levels are not keeping pace.

This mismatch can often lead to overvaluation, which in bearish conditions may trigger a drop.

However, the timing of this spike aligns with the anticipated launch of Grayscale’s Dogecoin ETF. The ETF is expected to draw notable capital inflows, which could reset the NVT Ratio and restore balance between price and on-chain activity.

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Macro indicators also paint an encouraging picture. Dogecoin’s Liveliness metric has been rising for several days, indicating increased HODLing behavior among long-term holders.

Liveliness rises when coins remain dormant for longer periods rather than being spent, suggesting that key holders are protecting their positions.

This trend is particularly important during downturns. Long-term holders often act as the backbone of price stability, resisting volatility caused by short-term traders.

Their continued conviction reduces the risk of abrupt sell-offs and shows confidence in Dogecoin’s ability to recover once market conditions shift.

DOGE Price Could Shoot Up

Dogecoin is trading at $0.143 and holding near the $0.142 support level. The meme coin remains trapped under a month-long downtrend that it has repeatedly failed to break. Current bearish conditions make recovery difficult without a significant catalyst.

The launch of the DOGE ETF could provide that catalyst. A successful debut may lift DOGE above $0.151, opening the path toward $0.165. A move of this scale would invalidate the downtrend and signal a shift in momentum supported by new inflows.

If the ETF hype fails to translate into buying pressure, Dogecoin could extend its decline. A drop toward $0.130 remains possible.

But if DOGE does not face a drop this sharp, it may continue struggling beneath the $0.151 resistance, prolonging the ongoing downtrend.

The post Dogecoin Is Overvalued, But Monday Could Flip the Script appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading near $0.156, down almost 19% over the past month and 11% in the past week. While a few large-cap coins are trying to build early recovery signs, the Dogecoin price is doing the opposite. The trend still tilts lower, and the signals forming on the chart and on-chain point to weakness rather than relief.

The short-term structure shows why the Dogecoin (DOGE) price weakness may continue before any meaningful upside can develop.

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Momentum Weakens As Hidden Bearish Divergence Forms

The clearest problem sits in the momentum data. Between Nov. 15 and Nov. 18, the Dogecoin price made a lower high, but the RSI made a higher high. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures whether buying or selling pressure is strong. When RSI climbs while the price makes a lower high, it forms a hidden bearish divergence.

Traders treat this as a continuation warning, meaning the existing downtrend still has room.

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This weakness becomes more convincing when you look at long-term DOGE holders. Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change shows how many coins held for more than 155 days are moving. These wallets usually sell only when conviction collapses.

On Nov. 9, long-term holders were distributing about 62.35 million DOGE. By Nov. 19, that figure had grown to 237.20 million DOGE. That is a sharp increase of nearly 175 million DOGE in ten days, a 280% jump. This reflects a clear rise in long-term selling pressure.

Taken together, momentum is weakening, and holders with strong hands are stepping back. That combination makes short-term rebounds easy to fade. All while exposing downside risks.

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Dogecoin Price Faces More Downside Unless Key Levels Break

The Dogecoin price continues to lean lower along its trend structure, so the next supports come from the trend-based projection levels. The first important level sits at $0.150, which has repeatedly acted as a short-term floor. Losing this support could push the price toward $0.140 and even $0.127 if broader market sentiment softens.

On the upside, the Dogecoin price needs to reclaim $0.163 to pause the bearish pattern. A clean move above $0.163 would shift momentum enough to target $0.186, the next major resistance on the chart. Until that happens, the downtrend remains intact, and every bounce carries the risk of fading.

For now, the overall picture stays simple. The trend is negative, the momentum favors sellers, and long-term holders are still distributing. Unless Dogecoin starts reclaiming key levels, the DOGE price trend is likely to continue — just not in the direction Long traders are hoping for.

The post Dogecoin Price Looks Set For Another Leg — Up Isn’t The Likely Direction appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Dogecoin is down about 1% over the past week and dropped another 7.3% in the last 24 hours, making it one of the weakest large-cap coins during the latest market dip. The ETF noise did not help either. The countdown for the Bitwise spot Dogecoin ETF began on November 7, but DOGE has barely moved since then.

Whales have been buying too, yet the price keeps sliding. The charts show that one group can stop Dogecoin from breaking down, and they have not returned yet.

Whales Buy and ETF Buzz Builds — But Price Still Drops

Buying from whale wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE has continued since November 7. On that day, their holdings were 30.75 billion DOGE. Now they hold 34.11 billion DOGE. They added around 3.36 billion DOGE in one week. At today’s price, that represents more than $550 million in accumulated value.

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Even with this level of buying, DOGE is still down 1% over the same period. The ETF countdown also had no effect. Price stayed flat while institutional interest increased.

Looks like Bitwise is doing the 8(a) move for their spot Dogecoin ETF, which basically means they plan on going effective in 20 days barring an intervention. pic.twitter.com/y8jyxbYKXQ

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 6, 2025

When whales buy and the price does not respond, it usually means another force is stronger. That force is long-term holders.

This Hodler Group Has a History of Triggering Rallies and Bounces

The Hodler Net Position Change shows long-term wallets have been selling aggressively. This metric tracks whether long-term holders are adding (inflows) or removing (outflows) coins.

On November 9, long-term holders removed 62.3 million DOGE. As of November 13, that number has jumped to 148.3 million DOGE, leaving long-term wallets. That is a 138% increase in selling pressure in less than a week.

This same group triggered earlier price reactions:

• Between September 6–7, the metric flipped from outflows to inflows, and DOGE jumped about 33% shortly after.

• Between October 15–16, the same shift produced a smaller bounce of around 5% after a few days.

These moves show a clear pattern: price strength usually returns when long-term holders stop selling and begin adding again. Right now, the signal remains deep in outflows. Until it flips again, DOGE cannot build a real recovery.

Dogecoin Price Nears Breakdown Zone — One Level Holds the Entire Structure

DOGE now trades near $0.163 and sits near its largest cost-basis support cluster. The cost-basis heatmap shows the strongest concentration of holders between $0.164 and $0.165. As long as this zone holds, DOGE can stay stable and attempt a bounce or two.

If DOGE closes a daily candle below $0.164 (which is currently possible), it will slip under this cluster. With almost no heavy support levels beneath it, the price can drop quickly. The next key level is $0.158, only 2.6% lower. A breakdown there exposes $0.151 and deeper losses if the market stays weak.

On the upside, the DOGE price needs a move above $0.178 to show early strength. A stronger short-term reversal needs a clean break above $0.186. But neither move can hold unless long-term holders return and shift back to inflows.

The post Not ETF Buzz, Nor Whales — This Group Can Save Dogecoin (DOGE) Price From a Breakdown appeared first on BeInCrypto.