Yuan Cina berada di jalur untuk kinerja tahunan terkuat dalam lima tahun, naik hampir 4% terhadap dolar pada tahun 2025.

Walaupun reli ini menarik perhatian di dunia keuangan tradisional, implikasinya bagi pasar aset kripto rumit oleh sikap regulasi Beijing yang semakin ketat.

Pengurangan Pelarian Modal, Penegakan Lebih Ketat

Beberapa faktor mendorong apresiasi yuan: fixing harian yang mendukung dari People’s Bank of China, masuknya kembali ke ekuitas Cina, serta penurunan sekitar 7% dalam indeks dolar. Bank-bank investasi sentral tetap optimistis, dengan Goldman Sachs memproyeksikan mata uang ini bisa mencapai 6,85 per dolar dalam setahun.

Bagi investor kripto, kekuatan yuan tidak selalu menguntungkan. Secara historis, periode kelemahan yuan—seperti 2018-2019—mendorong modal Cina untuk mencari perlindungan di Bitcoin sebagai lindung nilai terhadap depresiasi mata uang. Yuan yang lebih kuat membalikkan dinamika ini, mengurangi insentif pelarian modal dan membuat aset denominasi dolar, termasuk Bitcoin, relatif kurang menarik bagi investor Cina.

Menambah suasana bearish untuk arus kripto yang terkait dengan Cina, PBOC minggu lalu kembali menegaskan penindakannya terhadap mata uang virtual. Pada pertemuan koordinasi regulasi pada tanggal 29 November, bank sentral memperingatkan bahwa spekulasi kripto baru-baru ini meningkat kembali, menghadirkan tantangan baru untuk pengendalian risiko. Mereka menegaskan kembali bahwa aktivitas bisnis terkait mata uang virtual tetap “aktivitas keuangan ilegal” di Cina.

PBOC juga menyoroti kekhawatiran khusus tentang stablecoin, mengutip kegagalan memenuhi persyaratan identifikasi pelanggan dan anti pencucian uang. Otoritas memperingatkan bahwa stablecoin berisiko memfasilitasi pencucian uang, penipuan, dan transfer dana lintas batas yang tidak sah—mengisyaratkan bahwa Beijing melihat token yang dipatok dolar sebagai potensi celah untuk pelarian modal bahkan ketika yuan menguat.

Ekonomi Makro Tetap Mendukung Yuan

Tapi latar belakang makro yang lebih luas tetap mendukung kripto. Kekuatan yang sama yang mendorong apresiasi yuan—kelemahan dolar, pemotongan suku bunga Federal Reserve yang diantisipasi, dan sentimen risiko global yang membaik—secara tradisional menguntungkan bagi aset berisiko. Reli Bitcoin sejak Agustus bertepatan dengan rebound yuan, menyiratkan keduanya merespons tailwinds likuiditas yang sama.

Meskipun yuan yang lebih kuat dan penegakan Cina yang lebih ketat dapat mengurangi salah satu sumber permintaan Bitcoin historis, kondisi likuiditas global dan kelemahan dolar terus menjadi pendorong yang lebih signifikan untuk arah pasar kripto.

Precious metals rally to multi-week and all-time highs as Fed easing expectations climb, but crypto markets tell a different story amid ETF outflows and macro headwinds.

Gold prices touched a six-week high on Monday while silver struck a record, buoyed by growing expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar.

Silver Shines on Supply Squeeze

Spot gold climbed to $4,241 per ounce, its highest level since late October, while silver soared to a record $58.83 before retreating slightly. The white metal has more than doubled in value this year, far outpacing gold’s impressive 60% gain.

The primary driver behind this rally is growing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch data, traders are now pricing in an 87.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting, with only a 12.4% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

Beyond monetary policy expectations, silver is benefiting from acute supply constraints. A historic squeeze in London during October drew record amounts of the metal into the trading hub, subsequently draining inventories elsewhere. Shanghai Futures Exchange-linked warehouses recently hit their lowest levels in nearly a decade, while one-month borrowing costs for silver remain elevated.

The dollar’s slide to a two-week low has further enhanced the appeal of precious metals for holders of other currencies. Dovish remarks from Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, have reinforced expectations for continued monetary easing.

Bitcoin Bucks the Trend

Yet Bitcoin, often touted as “digital gold,” has moved in the opposite direction. The leading cryptocurrency plunged to around $86,000, down roughly 30% from its October all-time high near $126,000.

Several factors explain this divergence. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $3.4 billion in net outflows in November, reversing earlier inflows. A $9 million Yearn Finance hack on December 1 rattled DeFi sentiment, while Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s hints at a potential rate hike sparked fears of global carry trade unwinding. Additionally, over $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated during the recent selloff.

Those who said that the bitcoin chart will follow gold in the future.

sorry, it seems that it is not as expected 😬 pic.twitter.com/7ai1FnNq3e

— DOMBA.eth 🐺 (@DombaEth27) December 1, 2025

Although gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all non-yielding assets, precious metals are benefiting from independent bullish drivers—namely, physical supply shortages. Bitcoin, by contrast, remains far more sensitive to ETF fund flows and leverage liquidations.

While rate-cut expectations should be favorable for Bitcoin over the medium to long term, short-term headwinds are currently exerting greater influence.

The post 88% Chance of Rate Cut: Why Is Bitcoin Crashing While Silver Soars? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

China’s yuan is on track for its strongest annual performance in five years, gaining nearly 4% against the dollar in 2025.

While the rally has captured headlines in traditional finance, its implications for cryptocurrency markets are complicated by Beijing’s increasingly hawkish regulatory stance.

Reduced Capital Flight, Tighter Enforcement

Several factors are driving the yuan’s appreciation: the People’s Bank of China’s supportive daily fixing, renewed inflows into Chinese equities, and a roughly 7% decline in the dollar index. Central investment banks remain bullish, with Goldman Sachs projecting the currency could reach 6.85 per dollar within a year.

For crypto investors, yuan strength is not inherently bullish. Historically, periods of yuan weakness—such as 2018-2019—prompted Chinese capital to seek refuge in Bitcoin as a hedge against currency depreciation. A stronger yuan reverses this dynamic, reducing capital flight incentives and making dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin, relatively less attractive to Chinese investors.

Adding to the bearish undertone for China-linked crypto flows, the PBOC last week reaffirmed its crackdown on virtual currencies. At a regulatory coordination meeting on November 29, the central bank warned that crypto speculation has recently resurged, presenting new challenges for risk control. It reiterated that virtual currency-related business activities remain “illegal financial activities” in China.

The PBOC also flagged specific concerns about stablecoins, citing failures to meet customer identification and anti-money-laundering requirements. Authorities warned that stablecoins risk facilitating money laundering, fraud, and unauthorized cross-border fund transfers—signaling that Beijing views dollar-pegged tokens as potential loopholes for capital flight even as the yuan strengthens.

Macro Tailwinds Persist for Yuan

Yet the broader macro backdrop remains supportive for crypto. The same forces driving yuan appreciation—dollar weakness, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, and improving global risk sentiment—are traditionally favorable for risk assets. Bitcoin’s rally since August has coincided with the yuan’s rebound, suggesting both are responding to the same liquidity-driven tailwinds.

While a stronger yuan and tighter Chinese enforcement may reduce one historical source of Bitcoin demand, global liquidity conditions and dollar weakness continue to serve as more significant drivers for crypto market direction.

The post Chinese Yuan’s Best Year Since 2020: What It Means for Crypto Markets appeared first on BeInCrypto.