The crypto market has taken a heavy hit over the past month. Total market cap fell from $4.27 trillion on October 6 to $2.98 trillion on November 19, a drop of about 30%. The rebound to $3.12 trillion has not changed the debate — traders remain split.

One group says a deeper bear market is forming. The other says the correction already looks like late-stage weakness. This piece focuses on the second group. Several telltale readings now hint that the crypto bull market could start sooner than expected.

Each of the five reasons below reflects one of three things: peak weakness, peak capitulation, or a rise in fresh buying power. Together, they might be forming one of the strongest early bull cycle setups seen.

Short-Term Selling Pressure Looks Close to Exhaustion

Short-term holders have been selling at one of the fastest paces in months, and this is usually what happens near a bottom.

Bitcoin lettuce hands in losses have been dumping at an accelerated pace.

More signs for a big bounce ahead. pic.twitter.com/uVDgwoPNkP

— Bitcoin Munger (@bitcoinmunger) November 19, 2025

Bitcoin Munger flagged the spike in coins sent to exchanges at a loss, while JA Maartunn highlighted a similar surge on CryptoQuant, with more than 60,000 Bitcoin moved at a loss within hours. This kind of panic selling often marks the “clean-out” phase before a trend shift from bear market vibes.

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The on-chain data confirms it. The short-term holder SOPR fell to 0.96 on November 15, matching the same level from April 7. SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, shows whether coins spent on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. When it drops under 1 and then stabilizes, it often signals that weak holders have already capitulated.

Short-term holders matter because they are the group that reacts the fastest during corrections. They panic-sell earlier, hit stop losses quicker, and usually dump into weakness. This is why short-term selling pressure almost always peaks near market bottoms.

After the April reset, Bitcoin rallied from $76,270 to $123,345 within months, a near 62% move. With SOPR now back at 0.97, the latest drop hints that the selling pressure may be close to burnout.

This sets up the next question: Is fresh buying power building up elsewhere? That’s where the next indicator comes in.

Stablecoin Power Is Building Again 

If short-term sellers are close to exhaustion, the next question is simple: Is there enough fresh buying power to lift prices?

Right now, the stablecoin data says yes.

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped to 11.59, its lowest reading in over a year. SSR compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the total stablecoin supply. When SSR falls, it means stablecoins hold more buying power relative to Bitcoin. Traders sometimes refer to this as “dry powder.”

This level is even lower than the 12.89 reading seen on April 8, the same period when Bitcoin bottomed near $76,276 before rallying for months. Lower SSR means stablecoins can buy more Bitcoin per unit of supply, which usually appears near market lows.

A second confirmation comes from the RSI of SSR, highlighted by analyst Maartunn. It sits near 26, a level that has repeatedly aligned with Bitcoin bottoms during the past bear markets. A low RSI here means stablecoin buying power is oversold relative to Bitcoin’s size — a rare setup that often appears before trend shifts.

Taken together, the rising stablecoin reserves and the deeply compressed SSR show the market has the liquidity needed for a crypto bull market rebound.

Altcoin Profit Reset Might Be Quietly Strengthening the Crypto Bull Market Case

Short-term capitulation and low SSR already show that selling pressure is close to exhaustion. The next layer comes from altcoins, where the reset is even deeper.

Glassnode’s latest data shows that only about 5% of altcoin supply is still in profit, which is a level normally seen during late-stage capitulation. When almost every holder is underwater, the market usually has very little left to sell.

Altcoin relative profits are stabilizing in deep capitulation territory, with only ~5% of supply in profit, while Bitcoin’s profits have just begun to decline sharply.
This unusual divergence between BTC and alts is unprecedented in prior cycles.

📉 https://t.co/IpxEWurY3i pic.twitter.com/HqmUmNwkvF

— glassnode (@glassnode) November 15, 2025

This is similar to Bitcoin’s own wipeout, where 95% of all coins bought in the last 155 days are now underwater — higher than the COVID and FTX crashes.

JUST IN: 95% of all Bitcoin bought in the last 155 days is now underwater

Higher than COVID (92%) and FTX (94%) pic.twitter.com/FHYVdF6MNY

— Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) November 19, 2025

This combination matters because altcoins often stabilize before Bitcoin when profit ratios collapse this sharply. Even though Bitcoin dominance is still near 60%, the gap between Bitcoin’s profit decline and the near-zero altcoin profit level suggests altcoins might be closer to forming a base.

If the crypto bull market does start from a deep reset, altcoins are often the first to respond simply because they have no remaining overhead pressure. This raises the possibility that an altcoin-led phase could start first.

Sentiment Drops to Extreme Fear: Exactly How Bull Markets Start?

After looking at altcoin losses and Bitcoin’s underwater supply, the next piece that ties the crypto bull market story together is sentiment. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index fell to 10 on November 15, marking its lowest reading since February 27, when Bitcoin traded near $84,718. That earlier reading came just weeks before Bitcoin bottomed in April and began the same rally we referenced earlier — the move from $76,276 on April 8 to $123,345 by August 13, a 62% jump.

This new drop to 10 matters because extreme fear usually appears after most of the selling is done. Even during the April rebound, the index only briefly hit 18 and never slipped back to 10. Falling to that range again suggests the market has already gone through its emotional flush.

Industry leaders like Thomas Chen, CEO of Function, also describe this phase as washed-out and emotionally stretched:

“Allocator behavior has tilted sharply toward selloffs with over $2.8B in outflows… it almost feels like it’s moving back to the question: do I even want to hold BTC in this environment? With the Fear and Greed Index at extreme fear, this looks similar to the 2022 Luna crash,” he said.

Coming right after altcoin capitulation and record-low stablecoin ratios, this fear reset strengthens the broader case that the base for the next crypto bull market may be forming.

A Fresh Death Cross Just Finished Playing Out — And Bitcoin Could React?

The final signal pointing toward a possible crypto bull market is the new death cross that formed on November 15. A death cross happens when the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average. Moving averages show the average closing price over a period, so this crossover often highlights trend exhaustion rather than the start of a long crash.

Bitcoin dropped about 17% during the entire “crossing-in” phase, leading to the final signal. This move is almost identical to the 16% drop seen during the April death-cross setup. That April structure played out fully, wiped out weak momentum, and then the April-to-August rally started.

This time, something similar is happening under the surface. The price made a higher low during these two market phases, but the RSI is making a lower low. RSI tracks momentum, and this kind of hidden bullish divergence usually hints that sellers are tiring. It acts like the final pressure release before the uptrend started earlier continues. And this aligns with the peak capitulation theory shared earlier.

Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, pointed out that the recent breakdown reflects a macro-driven flush, not just a chart event.

“Bitcoin’s drop below $90,000 reflects a perfect storm of macro headwinds and profit-taking. Long-term holders have distributed over 815,000 BTC in the past month, the most aggressive selling since 2024,” he highlighted.

If Bitcoin holds above the recent lows, the death cross may end up being another reset rather than a breakdown.

Bitcoin had a death cross today.

Note that prior death crosses marked local lows in the market.

Of course, when the cycle is over, the death cross rally fails.

The time for Bitcoin to bounce if the cycle is not over would be starting within the next week.

If no bounce occurs… pic.twitter.com/Rg8pSxYMva

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) November 16, 2025

That was the case earlier this year, and it is one reason traders think the crypto bull market foundation is quietly forming again. However, if the Bitcoin price doesn’t react soon to this recently formed crossover, the bull market inception might have to wait longer.

The post 5 Reasons the Crypto Bull Market Could Restart Anytime Soon appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading near $0.156, down almost 19% over the past month and 11% in the past week. While a few large-cap coins are trying to build early recovery signs, the Dogecoin price is doing the opposite. The trend still tilts lower, and the signals forming on the chart and on-chain point to weakness rather than relief.

The short-term structure shows why the Dogecoin (DOGE) price weakness may continue before any meaningful upside can develop.

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Momentum Weakens As Hidden Bearish Divergence Forms

The clearest problem sits in the momentum data. Between Nov. 15 and Nov. 18, the Dogecoin price made a lower high, but the RSI made a higher high. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures whether buying or selling pressure is strong. When RSI climbs while the price makes a lower high, it forms a hidden bearish divergence.

Traders treat this as a continuation warning, meaning the existing downtrend still has room.

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This weakness becomes more convincing when you look at long-term DOGE holders. Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change shows how many coins held for more than 155 days are moving. These wallets usually sell only when conviction collapses.

On Nov. 9, long-term holders were distributing about 62.35 million DOGE. By Nov. 19, that figure had grown to 237.20 million DOGE. That is a sharp increase of nearly 175 million DOGE in ten days, a 280% jump. This reflects a clear rise in long-term selling pressure.

Taken together, momentum is weakening, and holders with strong hands are stepping back. That combination makes short-term rebounds easy to fade. All while exposing downside risks.

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Dogecoin Price Faces More Downside Unless Key Levels Break

The Dogecoin price continues to lean lower along its trend structure, so the next supports come from the trend-based projection levels. The first important level sits at $0.150, which has repeatedly acted as a short-term floor. Losing this support could push the price toward $0.140 and even $0.127 if broader market sentiment softens.

On the upside, the Dogecoin price needs to reclaim $0.163 to pause the bearish pattern. A clean move above $0.163 would shift momentum enough to target $0.186, the next major resistance on the chart. Until that happens, the downtrend remains intact, and every bounce carries the risk of fading.

For now, the overall picture stays simple. The trend is negative, the momentum favors sellers, and long-term holders are still distributing. Unless Dogecoin starts reclaiming key levels, the DOGE price trend is likely to continue — just not in the direction Long traders are hoping for.

The post Dogecoin Price Looks Set For Another Leg — Up Isn’t The Likely Direction appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Pada bulan lalu, pasar aset kripto terkena dampak besar. Kapitalisasi pasar total turun dari US$4,27 triliun pada 6 Oktober menjadi US$2,98 triliun pada 19 November, penurunan sekitar 30%. Rebound ke US$3,12 triliun belum mengubah perdebatan — para trader tetap terbagi.

Satu kelompok mengatakan pasar bearish yang lebih dalam sedang terbentuk, sementara kelompok lain mengatakan koreksi ini sudah tampak seperti kelemahan akhir. Artikel ini berfokus pada kelompok kedua. Beberapa indikator sekarang mengisyaratkan bahwa pasar bullish aset kripto bisa dimulai lebih cepat dari yang diperkirakan.

Masing-masing dari lima alasan di bawah ini mencerminkan satu dari tiga hal: kelemahan puncak, puncak kapitulasi, atau peningkatan dalam kekuatan beli baru. Bersama-sama, mereka bisa membentuk salah satu setup awal siklus bullish terkuat yang pernah ada.

Tekanan Jual Jangka Pendek Nampaknya Hampir Habis

Holder jangka pendek telah menjual dengan salah satu kecepatan tercepat dalam beberapa bulan, dan ini biasanya terjadi di dekat titik terendah.

Bitcoin lettuce hands in losses have been dumping at an accelerated pace.

More signs for a big bounce ahead. pic.twitter.com/uVDgwoPNkP

— Bitcoin Munger (@bitcoinmunger) November 19, 2025

Bitcoin Munger menandai lonjakan koin yang dikirim ke exchange dengan kerugian, sementara JA Maartunn menyoroti lonjakan serupa di CryptoQuant, dengan lebih dari 60.000 Bitcoin dipindahkan dengan kerugian dalam beberapa jam. Jenis penjualan panik ini sering menandai fase “pembersihan” sebelum pergeseran tren dari suasana pasar bearish.

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Data on-chain mengonfirmasi hal ini. SOPR holder jangka pendek turun ke 0,96 pada 15 November, menyamai level yang sama dari 7 April. SOPR, atau Spent Output Profit Ratio, menunjukkan apakah koin yang digunakan on-chain dijual dengan keuntungan atau kerugian. Ketika turun di bawah 1 dan kemudian stabil, itu sering menandakan bahwa holder lemah sudah kapitulasi.

Holder jangka pendek penting karena mereka adalah kelompok yang bereaksi paling cepat saat koreksi terjadi. Mereka panik menjual lebih awal, terjebak stop loss lebih cepat, dan biasanya dump saat ada kelemahan. Inilah sebabnya tekanan jual jangka pendek hampir selalu mencapai puncaknya di dekat titik terendah pasar.

Setelah reset April, Bitcoin reli dari US$76.270 ke US$123.345 dalam beberapa bulan, kenaikan hampir 62%. Dengan SOPR sekarang kembali di 0,97, penurunan terbaru mengisyaratkan bahwa tekanan jual mungkin mendekati titik akhir.

Ini menimbulkan pertanyaan berikutnya: Apakah ada kekuatan beli baru yang sedang terbentuk di tempat lain? Itulah di mana indikator berikutnya masuk.

Kekuatan Stablecoin Sedang Membangun Lagi

Jika penjual jangka pendek mendekati kelelahan, pertanyaan selanjutnya sederhana: Apakah ada cukup kekuatan beli baru untuk meningkatkan harga?

Saat ini, data stablecoin mengatakan ya.

Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) telah turun ke 11,59, pembacaan terendah dalam lebih dari setahun. SSR membandingkan kapitalisasi pasar Bitcoin dengan total pasokan stablecoin. Ketika SSR turun, artinya stablecoin memegang lebih banyak kekuatan beli relatif terhadap Bitcoin. Para trader kadang menyebut ini sebagai “peluru kering.”

Level ini bahkan lebih rendah dari pembacaan 12,89 yang terlihat pada 8 April, periode yang sama ketika Bitcoin mencapai titik terendah di sekitar US$76.276 sebelum reli selama berbulan-bulan. SSR yang lebih rendah berarti stablecoin dapat membeli lebih banyak Bitcoin per unit pasokan, yang biasanya muncul di dekat titik terendah pasar.

Konfirmasi kedua datang dari RSI SSR, yang disorot oleh analis Maartunn. Ada di sekitar 26, level yang berulang kali selaras dengan titik terendah Bitcoin selama pasar bearish sebelumnya. RSI yang rendah di sini berarti kekuatan beli stablecoin terjual berlebihan relatif terhadap ukuran Bitcoin — setup langka yang sering muncul sebelum pergeseran tren.

Kenaikan cadangan stablecoin dan SSR yang sangat terkompresi menunjukkan bahwa pasar memiliki likuiditas yang dibutuhkan untuk rebound pasar bull kripto.

Profit Altcoin Mungkin Diam-Diam Menguatkan Kasus Reli Pasar Bull Crypto

Kapitulasi jangka pendek dan SSR rendah sudah menunjukkan bahwa tekanan jual hampir habis. Lapisan berikutnya datang dari altcoin, di mana reset-nya bahkan lebih dalam.

Data terbaru dari Glassnode menunjukkan bahwa hanya sekitar 5% dari pasokan altcoin yang masih untung, yang merupakan tingkat yang biasanya terlihat selama tahap akhir kapitulasi. Ketika hampir setiap holder merugi, pasar biasanya memiliki sedikit sekali yang bisa dijual.

Altcoin relative profits are stabilizing in deep capitulation territory, with only ~5% of supply in profit, while Bitcoin’s profits have just begun to decline sharply.
This unusual divergence between BTC and alts is unprecedented in prior cycles.

📉 https://t.co/IpxEWurY3i pic.twitter.com/HqmUmNwkvF

— glassnode (@glassnode) November 15, 2025

Ini mirip dengan pembersihan Bitcoin, di mana 95% dari semua koin yang dibeli dalam 155 hari terakhir sekarang mengalami kerugian — lebih tinggi daripada crash COVID dan FTX.

JUST IN: 95% of all Bitcoin bought in the last 155 days is now underwater

Higher than COVID (92%) and FTX (94%) pic.twitter.com/FHYVdF6MNY

— Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) November 19, 2025

Kombinasi ini penting karena altcoin sering kali stabil sebelum Bitcoin ketika rasio untung turun tajam seperti ini. Meskipun dominan Bitcoin masih mendekati 60%, jarak antara penurunan keuntungan Bitcoin dan tingkat keuntungan altcoin yang mendekati nol menunjukkan altcoin mungkin lebih dekat untuk membentuk dasar.

Jika pasar bull kripto dimulai dari reset yang dalam, altcoin sering kali menjadi yang pertama merespons karena mereka tidak memiliki tekanan overhead yang tersisa. Ini meningkatkan kemungkinan bahwa fase yang dipimpin oleh altcoin bisa dimulai lebih dulu.

Sentimen Turun ke Ketakutan Ekstrem: Apakah Ini Cara Bull Market Dimulai?

Setelah melihat kerugian altcoin dan pasokan Bitcoin yang merugi, bagian berikutnya yang mengaitkan cerita bull market kripto adalah sentimen. Indeks Fear & Greed Bitcoin turun ke 10 pada 15 November, menandai bacaan terendahnya sejak 27 Februari, ketika Bitcoin diperdagangkan di dekat US$84.718. Bacaan sebelumnya datang hanya beberapa minggu sebelum Bitcoin mencapai titik terendah pada bulan April dan memulai reli yang sama yang kami sebutkan sebelumnya — pergerakan dari US$76.276 pada 8 April menjadi US$123.345 pada 13 Agustus, lompatannya sebesar 62%.

Penurunan baru ke 10 ini penting karena ketakutan ekstrem biasanya muncul setelah sebagian besar penjualan selesai. Bahkan selama rebound April, indeks hanya mencapai 18 sebentar dan tidak pernah jatuh kembali ke 10. Jatuh ke rentang itu lagi menandakan bahwa pasar sudah melalui pencucian emosionalnya.

Pemimpin industri seperti Thomas Chen, CEO Function, juga menggambarkan fase ini sebagai sudah tercuci dan emosional:

“Perilaku allocator telah condong tajam ke arah selloff dengan lebih dari US$2,8B arus keluar… hampir terasa seperti kembali ke pertanyaan: apakah saya bahkan ingin memegang BTC di lingkungan ini? Dengan Fear and Greed Index pada ketakutan ekstrem, ini terlihat mirip dengan crash Luna 2022,” ucapnya.

Datang tepat setelah kapitulasi altcoin dan rasio stablecoin yang paling rendah, reset ketakutan ini memperkuat argumen yang lebih luas bahwa dasar untuk pasar bull kripto berikutnya mungkin sedang terbentuk.

Death Cross Baru Selesai — Akankah Bitcoin Bereaksi?

Sinyal terakhir yang menunjuk ke kemungkinan pasar bull kripto adalah death cross baru yang terbentuk pada 15 November. Death cross terjadi ketika rata-rata bergerak 50-hari jatuh di bawah rata-rata bergerak 200-hari. Rata-rata bergerak menunjukkan harga penutupan rata-rata selama periode, jadi crossover ini sering kali menyoroti kelelahan tren alih-alih awal dari crash panjang.

Bitcoin turun sekitar 17% selama seluruh fase “crossing-in”, menghasilkan sinyal terakhir. Langkah ini hampir identik dengan penurunan 16% yang terlihat selama setup death cross April. Struktur April itu terwujud sepenuhnya, menghapus momentum lemah, lalu reli April hingga Agustus dimulai.

Kali ini, sesuatu yang serupa terjadi di bawah permukaan. Harga membuat titik terendah yang lebih tinggi selama dua fase pasar ini, tapi RSI membuat titik terendah yang lebih rendah. RSI melacak momentum, dan divergensi bullish tersembunyi seperti ini biasanya mengisyaratkan bahwa penjual sudah lelah. Ini bertindak seperti pelepasan tekanan terakhir sebelum uptrend yang dimulai sebelumnya berlanjut. Dan ini selaras dengan teori kapitulasi puncak yang dibagikan sebelumnya.

Fred Thiel, CEO MARA Holdings, mengemukakan bahwa penurunan baru-baru ini mencerminkan pencucian yang didorong oleh faktor makro, bukan hanya peristiwa grafik.

“Penurunan Bitcoin di bawah US$90.000 mencerminkan badai sempurna dari hambatan makro dan pengambilan keuntungan. Pemegang jangka panjang telah mendistribusikan lebih dari 815.000 BTC dalam sebulan terakhir, penjualan paling agresif sejak 2024,” terang dia.

Jika Bitcoin bertahan di atas titik terendah terbaru, death cross dapat berakhir sebagai reset lain daripada breakdown.

Bitcoin had a death cross today.

Note that prior death crosses marked local lows in the market.

Of course, when the cycle is over, the death cross rally fails.

The time for Bitcoin to bounce if the cycle is not over would be starting within the next week.

If no bounce occurs… pic.twitter.com/Rg8pSxYMva

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) November 16, 2025

Hal ini terjadi awal tahun ini, dan ini adalah salah satu alasan mengapa trader berpikir dasar pasar bull kripto sedang terbentuk kembali dengan diam-diam. Namun, jika harga Bitcoin tidak segera merespons crossover yang baru-baru ini terbentuk ini, awal pasar bull harus menunggu lebih lama.

Dogecoin (DOGE) diperdagangkan dekat US$0,156, turun hampir 19% selama sebulan terakhir dan 11% dalam minggu ini. Sementara beberapa koin berkapitalisasi besar mencoba menunjukkan tanda pemulihan awal, harga Dogecoin justru sebaliknya. Tren masih cenderung lebih rendah, dan sinyal di grafik dan on-chain menunjukkan kelemahan daripada pemulihan.

Struktur jangka pendek menunjukkan mengapa kelemahan harga Dogecoin (DOGE) dapat terus berlanjut sebelum ada kenaikan berarti yang bisa terjadi.

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Momentum Melemah Saat Hidden Bearish Divergence Terbentuk

Masalah paling jelas ada di data momentum. Antara 15 November dan 18 November, harga Dogecoin membuat level tertinggi yang lebih rendah, tapi RSI membuat level tertinggi yang lebih tinggi. RSI, atau Relative Strength Index, mengukur apakah tekanan beli atau jual kuat. Ketika RSI naik saat harga membuat level tertinggi lebih rendah, itu membentuk hidden bearish divergence.

Trader memperlakukan ini sebagai peringatan kelanjutan, artinya tren turun yang ada masih memiliki ruang.

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Kelemahan ini menjadi lebih meyakinkan ketika melihat holder DOGE jangka panjang. Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change menunjukkan berapa banyak koin yang dipegang lebih dari 155 hari berpindah. Wallet ini biasanya hanya menjual ketika keyakinan runtuh.

Pada 9 November, holder jangka panjang mendistribusikan sekitar 62,35 juta DOGE. Pada 19 November, angka itu meningkat menjadi 237,20 juta DOGE. Itu adalah peningkatan tajam hampir 175 juta DOGE dalam sepuluh hari, lonjakan 280%. Ini mencerminkan peningkatan tekanan jual jangka panjang yang jelas.

Secara keseluruhan, momentum melemah, dan holder dengan keyakinan kuat menarik diri. Kombinasi itu membuat rebound jangka pendek mudah untuk dilupakan. Sambil mengekspos risiko penurunan.

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Harga Dogecoin Berpotensi Turun Lagi Kecuali Level Kunci Tertembus

Harga Dogecoin terus condong lebih rendah seiring struktur trennya, jadi support berikutnya datang dari level proyeksi berbasis tren. Level penting pertama berada di US$0,150, yang telah berulang kali bertindak sebagai lantai jangka pendek. Kehilangan dukungan ini bisa mendorong harga menuju US$0,140 dan bahkan US$0,127 jika sentimen pasar yang lebih luas melemah.

Ke atas, harga Dogecoin perlu merebut kembali US$0,163 untuk menghentikan pola bearish. Gerakan bersih di atas US$0,163 akan mengubah momentum cukup untuk menargetkan US$0,186, resistance besar berikutnya di grafik. Sampai itu terjadi, tren penurunan tetap utuh, dan setiap lonjakan berisiko dilupakan.

Saat ini, gambaran keseluruhan tetap sederhana. Tren negatif, momentum mendukung penjual, dan holder jangka panjang masih mendistribusikan. Kecuali Dogecoin mulai merebut kembali level kunci, tren harga DOGE kemungkinan akan berlanjut — sayangnya bukan ke arah yang diharapkan trader jangka panjang.

Cardano has been one of the weakest large-cap coins this month. The Cardano price has dropped almost 30% over the past 30 days and nearly 26% since November 11. This drop pushed ADA toward the lower support of its falling wedge, a structure that usually leans bullish but can turn long-term bearish if broken.

Even with this pressure, three important indicators have turned positive just as Cardano sits on its last major support.

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Early Signs of Buyer Strength Near Last Support

Two indicators that track buying strength and volume behavior have shifted at the same time, right as the Cardano price reached the critical $0.45 support.

The CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) tracks whether money is flowing in or out based on price and volume. It had been falling since November 10 and even dropped under zero during Cardano’s sharp correction. But from November 16 to November 19, CMF formed a higher high while the price made a lower high. This is a bullish divergence because CMF rising while price weakens shows stronger inflows than the chart reflects.

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On-Balance Volume is a simple way to see if buyers or sellers have been more active. OBV had been stuck under a downward trend line for weeks, matching the steady decline in Cardano price. But as ADA touched the $0.45 zone, OBV pushed above this trend line for the first time in a while. This usually shows buyers starting to participate again before the ADA price reacts.

When CMF and OBV improve together near a major support, it often means the market may be preparing for a short-term recovery attempt. But the Cardano price still needs validation from its on-chain behavior.

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Holder Behavior Shows Strong Conviction During the Drop

The Spent Coins Age Band tracks how many tokens from different wallet age groups are being moved. When many coins move at once, it often signals fear or heavy selling. When token movement drops while prices fall, it usually shows conviction from long-term holders.

On November 1, ADA saw its spent coins activity peak with the movement of 159.01 million tokens. By November 19, the metric had dropped by roughly 27%, even though the price kept falling.

This means far fewer tokens moved during the correction. When token movement drops this sharply during a sell-off, it strengthens the idea that Cardano may be trying to save its trendline support rather than break below it. That’s the third reason pushing for the rebound angle.

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Cardano Price Must Hold $0.45 or Risk a Breakdown

Cardano price is trading directly on the lower trend line of its falling wedge and its strongest support at $0.45–$0.44. If this zone holds on a daily close, ADA can attempt a rebound. Moving above $0.50–$0.52 would be the first sign of strength, but the real recovery begins only after Cardano retakes $0.60.

That level flips the short-term trend and sets up a retest of $0.69, which is the point where a full wedge breakout becomes possible. Crossing that level would mean that the Cardano price could turn its supposed rebound into a rally attempt.

If the support fails, the structure breaks. A daily close under $0.44 opens a drop toward $0.40, with the possibility of deeper dips if market sentiment weakens further. The bullish setup becomes invalid below this zone.

The post 3 Reasons Why A Cardano Price Rebound Looks Likely appeared first on BeInCrypto.

BMNR stock is up 4.3% today, even as it remains down more than 21% over the past five days, mostly following Ethereum’s 12% slide this week. With Q4 earnings set for November 21, early strength in the BMNR price has raised the question of whether the stock is positioning itself ahead of the market, again.

The last time this happened, BMNR moved much earlier than Ethereum. With bottoming signs flashing across crypto, traders are watching to see if history is lining up once more.

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BMNR Has Front-Run Ethereum Before — And Conditions Look Similar

Between June 26 and July 3, Ethereum moved only 10%. In that same period, BitMine (BMNR) surged 3,993% from $3.91 to $160.10. It is worth noting that the Q3 results came out on July 2.

Only after BMNR’s explosion did Ethereum begin its real run, rallying more than 100% from early July to late August. BMNR had clearly priced in the move earlier, showing a pattern of reacting to expectations rather than the move itself.

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Now, with several bottoming signals forming across Bitcoin and Ethereum, traders are asking whether BMNR is again sensing a shift under the surface. The stock is stabilizing right before earnings — the same timing as its July behavior — while the broader crypto market is trying to form a base.

This brings us to what BMNR’s own indicators are signaling.

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Divergence Still Supports the Uptrend, but Volume Must Confirm the Breakout

RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures price momentum. Between June 27 and November 17, BMNR made a higher low, while RSI made a lower low. That is hidden bullish divergence, which appears in assets that remain in long-term uptrends even during strong pullbacks.

RSI has also bounced from oversold conditions, giving BMNR a steadier base ahead of the earnings call.

$BMNR reporting earnings on Friday before the bell

Prediction: they give an update on staking having either already begun or provide a timeline.

1. When will staking start
2. What will they do with the proceeds (DRIP into $ETH or paid out to holders)

Either way, I'll cover it… pic.twitter.com/LXNp2GihXE

— Tevis (@FunOfInvesting) November 18, 2025

But the real confirmation still rests with On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV adds volume on up days and subtracts volume on down days to show who controls the market.

Here is what matters now:

• OBV remains below a descending trend line, which has capped every attempt at recovery.
• OBV is now curling upward as the result date approaches.
• A break above this OBV trend line is the technical trigger that usually leads to large moves in BMNR.

There is also a long-term OBV divergence on the chart.

From September 5 to November 17, the BMNR price made a lower low, but the OBV made a higher low. This is often a sign that seller pressure is fading in the background, even if the price hasn’t reacted yet.

If OBV breaks out, BMNR’s correlation with Ethereum strengthens — as it did before the July rally.

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Key BMNR Price Levels To Track Now

BMNR has held $30 as major support since early August. The stock’s current stabilization shows this level is still active.

If $30 holds:

• BMNR can push toward $39 first.
• A break above $43 opens a path to $52-$58.
• A full extension toward $65 (a gain of over 100%) becomes realistic if Ethereum picks up even a modest rebound.

One more positive signal appears on the CMF. The Chaikin Money Flow tracks inflows and outflows using price and volume. CMF has now broken above its descending trend line, which means inflows are rising again right before the result date. This does not confirm a breakout on its own, but it strengthens the case that buyers are returning at the right time.

This aligns with Donald Dean’s NAV model.

$BMNR BitMine Immersion, 3.0% of ETH Supply – Updated Targets, New Net Asset Value (mNAV) Calculations

NAV Targets at 1.6x:
$4,000 ETH = $71.10 BMNR
$5,000 ETH = $88.06 BMNR
$6,000 ETH = $105.02 BMNR

In the downtrend, near support from August. BMNR would need to get above $37… pic.twitter.com/AcPoHgIDS0

— Donald Dean (@donaldjdean) November 17, 2025

Dean uses a NAV multiple where BMNR’s value tracks ETH ownership and cash reserves.

He estimates the stock’s upside using ETH’s percentage moves. This means that if Ethereum rebounds 10%, BMNR’s fair value under Dean’s model moves well above the current range, placing the stock closer to its higher extensions. That’s close to $65, per the chart.

But the model also works in reverse.

If Ethereum drops again:

• BMNR’s NAV compresses quickly.
• Losing $30 would expose the stock to even $25.

So the next move depends on two things: OBV breakout and Ethereum price direction. If both align near the earnings release, the BMNR price may once again outpace the crypto market.

The post BitMine (BMNR) Stock Bounces As Q4 Results Near — Is the Price Preparing Another Early Move? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

XRP price trades near $2.15 today after dropping over 18% since November 10. The token has spent the past month moving inside a bearish channel. And the latest structure now shows weakening volume, rising long-term selling, and the price sitting close to a key support.

If buyers fail to defend one level, the XRP price could slide into a deeper leg of its downtrend.

Falling Channel and Volume Breakdown Strengthen the Bearish Setup

XRP continues to move inside a descending channel that has guided every bounce and rejection for more than a month. This pattern is a bearish continuation structure, and the recent candles show that each recovery attempt is getting weaker.

This weakness is most visible in the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. OBV adds volume on green days and subtracts it on red days to show whether buying or selling pressure is dominating. Between November 4 and 9, OBV briefly moved above the descending trend line connecting its lower highs. The XRP price responded with a quick short-term bounce.

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But once OBV slipped back below the trend line on November 12, the tone changed. The indicator has stayed below that trend line since, showing that market-wide buying pressure has continued to weaken. This aligns perfectly with the price action: XRP began its 18.6% decline on November 10, the same window in which OBV started curling downward again.

The lack of volume strength means buyers are not stepping in with conviction. That sets the stage for the next metric.

Long-Term Holders Are Increasing Their Selling

Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change tracks how much long-term holder supply is entering or leaving exchanges and wallets. It is one of the clearest measures of long-term conviction.

Over the past few days, long-term holders have sharply increased their selling again after dipping to the lowest fortnightly level on November 16:

• Nov 16: –63.57 million XRP
• Nov 18: –94.50 million XRP

Now, that’s a 48.6% rise in long-term outflows in just two days.

This confirms that the pressure shown on OBV is not random noise. It comes at the same time that long-term holders are reducing their positions more aggressively. When long-term seller activity rises while volume weakens, it typically signals a market that has not found its bottom yet. And that view keeps every nearby support level at risk.

Together, OBV and Hodler Net Position Change point to the same idea: buyers are not absorbing the increased selling pressure.

XRP Price Levels That Matter Most

The XRP price now sits close to the most important support on the chart: $2.10. This level has acted as a reaction zone multiple times inside the falling channel. If the daily candle closes below $2.10, XRP could extend its move toward $1.77, the long-term channel floor.

On the upside, the level that must be reclaimed to invalidate this bearish setup is $2.41. Clearing $2.41 would show that buyers have regained strength and would open the path toward $2.58. Only a daily close above $2.58 would flip the short-term trend back to bullish.

Right now, the structure still leans negative. Volume is weakening. Long-term holders are selling faster. And the XRP price remains inside a falling channel. Unless XRP reclaims $2.41, all eyes stay on $2.10. This fragile floor decides whether XRP stabilizes or enters a deeper slide.

The post Selling Pressure Jumps 48% as XRP Sits on a Fragile Floor — What’s Next For The Price? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Cardano adalah salah satu koin kapitalisasi besar yang paling lemah bulan ini. Harga Cardano telah turun hampir 30% dalam 30 hari terakhir dan hampir 26% sejak 11 November. Penurunan ini mendorong ADA ke support bawah dari wedge turunnya, sebuah struktur yang biasanya condong bullish tetapi dapat berubah menjadi bearish jangka panjang jika ditembus.

Namun dengan tekanan ini, tiga indikator penting telah berubah positif tepat saat Cardano berada di support utama terakhirnya.

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Tanda Awal Kekuatan Pembeli Dekat Support Terakhir

Dua indikator yang melacak kekuatan membeli dan perilaku volume telah berbalik pada saat yang sama, tepat saat harga Cardano mencapai support krusial US$0,45.

CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) melacak apakah uang mengalir masuk atau keluar berdasarkan harga dan volume. Ini telah turun sejak 10 November dan bahkan jatuh di bawah nol selama koreksi tajam Cardano. Namun, dari 16 November hingga 19 November, CMF membentuk posisi tinggi yang lebih tinggi sementara harga membuat posisi tinggi yang lebih rendah. Ini adalah divergensi bullish karena CMF naik sementara harga melemah menunjukkan aliran masuk yang lebih kuat dari yang tercermin di grafik.

Ingin wawasan token lebih banyak seperti ini? Daftarkan di Newsletter Crypto Harian dari Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

On-Balance Volume adalah cara sederhana untuk melihat apakah pembeli atau penjual lebih aktif. OBV telah terjebak di bawah garis tren menurun selama berminggu-minggu, sesuai dengan penurunan harga Cardano yang stabil. Tetapi saat ADA menyentuh zona US$0,45, OBV menembus di atas garis tren ini untuk pertama kalinya dalam beberapa saat. Ini biasanya menunjukkan pembeli mulai berpartisipasi lagi sebelum harga ADA bereaksi.

Ketika CMF dan OBV meningkat bersama-sama di dekat support utama, ini sering berarti pasar mungkin bersiap untuk upaya pemulihan jangka pendek. Namun harga Cardano masih membutuhkan validasi dari perilaku on-chainnya.

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Perilaku Holder Menunjukkan Keyakinan Kuat saat Penurunan

The Spent Coins Age Band melacak berapa banyak token dari kelompok umur wallet yang berbeda dipindahkan. Ketika banyak koin bergerak sekaligus, ini sering menandakan ketakutan atau penjualan besar-besaran. Ketika pergerakan token menurun sementara harga turun, ini biasanya menunjukkan keyakinan dari holder jangka panjang.

Pada 1 November, aktivitas koin yang dihabiskan ADA mencapai puncaknya dengan pergerakan 159,01 juta token. Pada 19 November, metrik ini telah turun sekitar 27%, meskipun harga terus turun.

Ini berarti jauh lebih sedikit token yang bergerak selama koreksi. Ketika pergerakan token turun tajam selama penjualan, ini memperkuat gagasan bahwa Cardano mungkin berusaha menyelamatkan support trendline-nya daripada menembus ke bawahnya. Itu adalah alasan ketiga yang mendorong sudut pemulihan.

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Harga Cardano Harus Bertahan di US$0,45 atau Berisiko Breakdown

Harga Cardano sedang diperdagangkan tepat di garis tren bawah dari wedge turunnya dan support terkuatnya di US$0,45–US$0,44. Jika zona ini bertahan pada penutupan harian, ADA dapat mencoba untuk memantul kembali. Bergerak di atas US$0,50–US$0,52 akan menjadi tanda kekuatan pertama, namun pemulihan nyata baru dimulai setelah Cardano merebut kembali US$0,60.

Tingkat tersebut membalikkan tren jangka pendek dan menyiapkan retest di US$0,69, yang merupakan titik di mana breakout wedge penuh menjadi mungkin. Melewati tingkat tersebut akan berarti harga Cardano bisa mengubah rebound yang diharapkan menjadi upaya reli.

Jika support gagal, struktur akan rusak. Penutupan harian di bawah US$0,44 membuka kemungkinan penurunan menuju US$0,40, dengan kemungkinan penurunan lebih dalam jika sentimen pasar semakin melemah. Setup bullish menjadi tidak valid di bawah zona ini.

Saham BMNR naik 4,3% hari ini, meskipun tetap turun lebih dari 21% selama lima hari terakhir, sebagian besar mengikuti penurunan Ethereum sebesar 12% minggu ini. Dengan laporan laba kuartal keempat yang dijadwalkan pada 21 November, kekuatan awal pada harga BMNR telah menimbulkan pertanyaan apakah saham sedang memposisikan diri di depan pasar, lagi.

Terakhir kali ini terjadi, BMNR bergerak jauh lebih awal daripada Ethereum. Dengan tanda-tanda dasar muncul di seluruh kripto, para trader sedang mengamati apakah sejarah akan berulang sekali lagi.

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BMNR Pernah Mendahului Ethereum — Dan Kondisinya Nampaknya Serupa

Antara 26 Juni dan 3 Juli, Ethereum bergerak hanya 10%. Dalam periode yang sama, BitMine (BMNR) melonjak 3.993% dari US$3,91 menjadi US$160,10. Perlu dicatat bahwa hasil kuartal ketiga diumumkan pada 2 Juli.

Hanya setelah ledakan BMNR, Ethereum mulai bergerak nyata, reli lebih dari 100% dari awal Juli hingga akhir Agustus. BMNR jelas sudah menghargai gerakan lebih awal, menunjukkan pola reaksi terhadap ekspektasi daripada gerakan itu sendiri.

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Sekarang, dengan beberapa sinyal dasar terbentuk di Bitcoin dan Ethereum, para trader bertanya-tanya apakah BMNR kembali merasakan perubahan di bawah permukaan. Saham ini stabil tepat sebelum laporan laba — waktu yang sama dengan perilaku Juli-nya — sementara pasar kripto secara umum mencoba membentuk dasar.

Ini membawa kita ke apa yang isyarat BMNR sendiri tunjukkan.

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Divergensi Masih Mendukung Uptrend, Namun Volume Harus Konfirmasi Breakout

RSI (Relative Strength Index) mengukur momentum harga. Antara 27 Juni dan 17 November, BMNR mencatatkan posisi terendah yang lebih tinggi, sementara RSI mencatatkan posisi terendah yang lebih rendah. Itu adalah divergensi bullish tersembunyi, yang muncul pada aset yang tetap dalam tren naik jangka panjang meskipun terjadi koreksi kuat.

RSI juga telah memantul dari kondisi jenuh jual, memberikan BMNR dasar yang lebih stabil menjelang panggilan laba.

$BMNR reporting earnings on Friday before the bell

Prediction: they give an update on staking having either already begun or provide a timeline.

1. When will staking start
2. What will they do with the proceeds (DRIP into $ETH or paid out to holders)

Either way, I'll cover it… pic.twitter.com/LXNp2GihXE

— Tevis (@FunOfInvesting) November 18, 2025

Namun konfirmasi sejatinya masih tergantung pada On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV menambah volume pada hari naik dan mengurangi volume pada hari turun untuk menunjukkan siapa yang mengendalikan pasar.

Inilah yang penting sekarang:

• OBV tetap di bawah garis tren menurun, yang telah membatasi setiap upaya pemulihan.
• OBV sekarang bergerak ke atas saat tanggal hasil mendekat.
• Pemecahan di atas garis tren OBV ini adalah pemicu teknikal yang biasanya menyebabkan gerakan besar pada BMNR.

Ada juga divergensi OBV jangka panjang pada grafik.

Dari 5 September hingga 17 November, harga BMNR mencatatkan posisi terendah yang lebih rendah, tetapi OBV mencatatkan posisi terendah yang lebih tinggi. Ini sering kali merupakan tanda bahwa tekanan penjual mulai memudar di latar belakang, meskipun harga belum bereaksi.

Jika OBV breakout, korelasi BMNR dengan Ethereum menguat — seperti yang terjadi sebelum reli Juli.

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Level Harga Kunci BMNR yang Perlu Dilacak Sekarang

BMNR telah bertahan di harga US$30 sebagai support utama sejak awal Agustus. Stabilitas saham saat ini menunjukkan level ini masih aktif.

Jika US$30 bertahan:

• BMNR bisa naik menuju US$39 terlebih dahulu.
• Breakout di atas US$43 membuka jalan menuju US$52-US$58.
• Ekstensi penuh menuju US$65 (kenaikan lebih dari 100%) menjadi realistis jika Ethereum mengalami rebound meski sedikit.

Sinyal positif lainnya muncul pada CMF. Chaikin Money Flow melacak arus masuk dan keluar menggunakan harga dan volume. CMF sekarang telah breakout dari garis tren turunnya, yang berarti arus masuk meningkat lagi tepat sebelum tanggal hasil. Ini tidak mengonfirmasi breakout secara sendiri, tetapi memperkuat kasus bahwa pembeli kembali pada waktu yang tepat.

Ini sejalan dengan model NAV Donald Dean.

$BMNR BitMine Immersion, 3.0% of ETH Supply – Updated Targets, New Net Asset Value (mNAV) Calculations

NAV Targets at 1.6x:
$4,000 ETH = $71.10 BMNR
$5,000 ETH = $88.06 BMNR
$6,000 ETH = $105.02 BMNR

In the downtrend, near support from August. BMNR would need to get above $37… pic.twitter.com/AcPoHgIDS0

— Donald Dean (@donaldjdean) November 17, 2025

Dean menggunakan kelipatan NAV di mana nilai BMNR melacak kepemilikan ETH dan cadangan kas.

Ia memperkirakan potensi kenaikan saham dengan menggunakan persentase pergerakan ETH. Ini berarti jika Ethereum rebound 10%, nilai wajar BMNR menurut model Dean bergerak jauh di atas kisaran saat ini, menempatkan saham mendekati ekstensi yang lebih tinggi. Itu mendekati US$65, menurut grafik.

Namun model ini juga berlaku sebaliknya.

Jika Ethereum turun lagi:

• NAV BMNR akan cepat tertekan.
• Kehilangan US$30 akan membuka saham ke harga US$25.

Jadi langkah selanjutnya tergantung pada dua faktor: breakout OBV dan arah harga Ethereum. Jika keduanya selaras saat mendekati rilis pendapatan, harga BMNR mungkin sekali lagi melampaui pasar kripto.

Harga XRP diperdagangkan mendekati US$2,15 hari ini setelah turun lebih dari 18% sejak 10 November. Token ini telah menghabiskan bulan lalu bergerak di dalam saluran bearish. Dan struktur terbaru sekarang menunjukkan volume yang melemah, penjualan jangka panjang yang meningkat, dan harga yang berada dekat dengan support kunci.

Jika pembeli gagal mempertahankan satu level, harga XRP bisa turun lebih dalam ke tren turun.

Falling Channel dan Volume Breakdown Menguatkan Setup Bearish

XRP terus bergerak di dalam saluran menurun yang telah memandu setiap pantulan dan penolakan selama lebih dari sebulan. Pola ini adalah struktur lanjutan bearish, dan candle terbaru menunjukkan setiap upaya pemulihan semakin melemah.

Kelemahan ini paling terlihat pada indikator On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV menambahkan volume pada hari hijau dan mengurangnya pada hari merah untuk menunjukkan apakah tekanan beli atau jual yang mendominasi. Antara 4 dan 9 November, OBV sempat bergerak di atas garis tren menurun yang menghubungkan titik tertinggi bawahnya. Harga XRP merespons dengan pantulan jangka pendek yang cepat.

Ingin lebih banyak wawasan token seperti ini? Daftar untuk Newsletter Crypto Harian dari Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Tapi begitu OBV tergelincir kembali di bawah garis tren pada 12 November, nadanya berubah. Indikator itu tetap di bawah garis tren tersebut sejak, menunjukkan bahwa tekanan beli secara keseluruhan telah terus melemah. Ini selaras sempurna dengan aksi harga: XRP memulai penurunannya sebesar 18,6% pada 10 November, di periode yang sama ketika OBV mulai menurun lagi.

Ketiadaan kekuatan volume berarti pembeli tidak terjun dengan keyakinan. Itu membuka jalan untuk metrik berikutnya.

Holder Jangka Panjang Meningkatkan Penjualan Mereka

Hodler Net Position Change dari Glassnode melacak berapa banyak pasokan holder jangka panjang yang masuk atau keluar dari exchange dan wallet. Ini adalah salah satu ukuran paling jelas dari keyakinan jangka panjang.

Selama beberapa hari terakhir, holder jangka panjang telah meningkatkan penjualannya kembali secara tajam setelah turun ke level terendah dua minggu pada 16 November:

• 16 Nov: –63,57 juta XRP
• 18 Nov: –94,50 juta XRP

Sekarang, itu adalah peningkatan 48,6% dalam aliran keluar jangka panjang hanya dalam dua hari.

Ini mengonfirmasi bahwa tekanan yang ditunjukkan pada OBV bukanlah gangguan acak. Ini terjadi bersamaan dengan saat holder jangka panjang mengurangi posisi mereka lebih agresif. Ketika aktivitas penjual jangka panjang meningkat sementara volume melemah, ini biasanya menandakan pasar yang belum menemukan dasarnya. Dan pandangan itu membuat setiap level support terdekat berisiko.

Bersama-sama, OBV dan Hodler Net Position Change menunjukkan ide yang sama: pembeli tidak menyerap tekanan jual yang meningkat.

Level Harga XRP yang Paling Penting

Harga XRP sekarang berada dekat dengan support paling penting pada grafik: US$2,10. Level ini telah bertindak sebagai zona reaksi beberapa kali di dalam saluran yang menurun. Jika candle harian ditutup di bawah US$2,10, XRP bisa memperpanjang gerakannya ke arah US$1,77, yaitu dasar saluran jangka panjang.

Di sisi atas, level yang harus direbut kembali untuk membatalkan setup bearish ini adalah US$2,41. Jika berhasil melampaui US$2,41, ini akan menunjukkan bahwa pembeli telah mendapatkan kekuatan kembali dan membuka jalan menuju US$2,58. Hanya penutupan harian di atas US$2,58 yang bisa membalikkan tren jangka pendek menjadi bullish.

Saat ini, struktur masih cenderung negatif. Volume melemah. Holder jangka panjang menjual lebih cepat. Dan harga XRP tetap di dalam saluran yang menurun. Kecuali XRP merebut kembali US$2,41, semua mata tetap terfokus pada US$2,10. Lantai yang rapuh ini menentukan apakah XRP stabil atau memasuki penurunan lebih dalam.

Pi Coin telah menjadi salah satu token yang lebih tangguh bulan ini. Sementara pasar secara keseluruhan mengalami penurunan 1,1% hari ini, harga Pi Coin masih naik 0,8% dan naik 11,5% selama bulan lalu. Mengingat sejarah harga PI, pergerakan 11,5% ini tidak kurang dari sebuah reli.

Baru-baru ini gagal melakukan breakout yang dapat membawa harga lebih tinggi, namun tren belum berbalik menjadi bearish. Beberapa tanda awal menunjukkan pembeli masih menguasai, dan reli ini mungkin belum selesai.

Tren Awal Masih Mengarah ke Reli Harga

Sinyal bullish pertama Pi Coin datang dari grafik 4 jam, yang membantu mendeteksi perubahan tren awal. Dalam kerangka waktu ini, EMA 20-periode mendekati EMA 50-periode. EMA (Exponential Moving Average) melacak harga dari waktu ke waktu dengan lebih banyak bobot pada candle terbaru. Crossover bullish terjadi ketika EMA jangka pendek bergerak di atas EMA jangka panjang, sering kali menandai perubahan momentum.

Ingin wawasan token lebih banyak seperti ini? Daftarkan diri Anda untuk Newsletter Harian Crypto Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Upaya crossover serupa terjadi pada 11 November, tetapi penjual masuk sebelum garis tersebut menyilang, memaksa pergerakan tersebut gagal. Jika bulls dapat menjaga harga stabil kali ini, crossover bisa selesai dan memberikan dorongan selanjutnya untuk Pi Coin.

Di grafik harian, indikator Bull-Bear Power mendukung ide ini. Indikator ini melacak celah antara tekanan beli dan tekanan jual. Meskipun breakout gagal di US$0,229, Bull-Bear Power telah berbalik sepenuhnya ke wilayah bullish, menunjukkan pembeli masih mengontrol.

Jika kekuatan ini berlanjut, crossover EMA lebih kecil kemungkinannya untuk gagal seperti yang terjadi pada 11 November.

Aksi Harga Pi Coin dan Money Flow Memegang Kunci

Harga Pi Coin terus berjuang dengan US$0,229, yang telah menolak setiap upaya breakout sejauh ini dalam waktu dekat. Jika ada penutupan harian di atas level ini, target berikutnya menjadi US$0,236 (resistance kuat lainnya), diikuti oleh kemungkinan pergerakan menuju US$0,266, zona resistance atas.

Breakout gagal awal minggu ini sejalan dengan penurunan dalam Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). CMF mengukur apakah dompet besar menambah atau mengurangi modal. Pi Coin melihat arus masuk antara 15-16 November, tetapi uang dengan cepat keluar setelahnya, kembali turun ke arah garis tren.

Selama CMF tetap di atas garis tren yang naik, pembeli masih memiliki jalur untuk mengambil kembali kontrol. Penembusan kembali di atas garis nol akan mengonfirmasi kembalinya uang besar, memperkuat kasus bullish dan mendukung crossover EMA dari grafik 4 jam.

Jika CMF jatuh di bawah garis tren, peluang penurunan terbuka. Dalam kasus itu, Pi Coin bisa kembali ke US$0,201, dan dengan tekanan pasar yang lebih dalam, bahkan ke level yang lebih rendah lagi.

Untuk sementara, Pi Coin hanya butuh dorongan 0,48% lagi untuk menutup di atas US$0,229. Jika crossover selesai dan CMF berbalik naik, Pi Coin mungkin akhirnya melewati hambatan ini dan memperpanjang reli bulanannya.

Harga FIRO melonjak hampir 60% dalam 24 jam terakhir dan sekarang naik lebih dari 300% dalam sebulan terakhir. Pergerakan ini melampaui bahkan Zcash, salah satu koin privasi terkuat dalam siklus ini. FIRO, sebelumnya dikenal sebagai Zcoin, jelas memanfaatkan momentum baru di ruang koin privasi.

Pertanyaan kunci sekarang adalah apakah reli ini masih memiliki tenaga — dan apakah FIRO dapat secara realistis mengunjungi kembali zona lebih dari US$10.

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Breakout Flag Mewarnai Reli FIRO

FIRO baru-baru ini breakout dari pola flag, struktur kelanjutan bullish klasik yang terbentuk ketika harga berhenti setelah kenaikan tajam.

Tiang terbentuk antara 31 Oktober dan 10 November, diikuti konsolidasi ketat dari 10–15 November. FIRO kemudian breakout pada 15 November, melengkapi pola tersebut.

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Berdasarkan proyeksi tiang, target teknis berada di dekat US$8,49, dengan asumsi kondisi pasar secara umum tetap mendukung. Dengan koin privasi mendapatkan aliran kuat secara keseluruhan, FIRO memiliki kesempatan realistis untuk mencapai perpanjangan ini.

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Aliran Dana Besar dan Bull Bear Power Menambah Kekuatan pada Pergerakan

Breakout ini didukung kuat oleh indikator berbasis volume. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) FIRO — indikator yang
mengukur tekanan beli vs jual berdasarkan volume — terus meningkat selama konsolidasi. CMF tetap stabil bahkan ketika harga FIRO terkonsolidasi, menunjukkan bahwa dompet besar diam-diam mengumpulkan selama penurunan.

Breakout garis tren CMF yang meningkat masih menunggu. Pergerakan jelas di atas garis tren CMF atas akan mengonfirmasi gelombang arus masuk baru dan mendukung langkah berikutnya FIRO menuju target yang diproyeksikan. Namun, sampai breakout CMF terjadi, aksi harga FIRO tetap rentan terhadap koreksi.

Indikator Bull-Bear Power juga mengonfirmasi kekuatan. Indikator ini mengukur gap antara tekanan beli dan tekanan jual. Pada grafik FIRO, Bull-Bear Power telah melonjak ke level bullish lebih tinggi dari yang terlihat selama tiang asli, membenarkan kekuatan di balik breakout ini.

Kedua indikator mendukung gagasan bahwa reli harga FIRO mungkin masih memiliki ruang untuk bergerak.

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Level Harga FIRO Penting Selanjutnya

Harga FIRO sekarang menghadapi dua hambatan utama.

• Resistance pertama berada di US$6,01. Penutupan harian di atas level ini memperkuat momentum.
• Resistance utama berikutnya berada di US$8,18, tepat di bawah target yang berasal dari tiang.

Melewati kedua level ini menjaga proyeksi US$8,49 tetap berlaku.

Jika FIRO melewati US$8,49 (proyeksi tiang), target psikologis dan teknis berikutnya menjadi US$10,35, menandai kembalian ke zona dua digit.

Di sisi negatif, pergerakan di bawah US$3,00 melemahkan struktur, dan jatuh di bawah US$2,49 mematahkannya sepenuhnya. Ini adalah level pembatalan untuk reli saat ini. Itu bisa terjadi hanya jika koreksi harga FIRO lebih dalam, yang dipicu oleh uang besar yang keluar dan tidak memecahkan garis tren yang sudah kita sebutkan sebelumnya.

Pi Coin has been one of the more resilient tokens this month. While the broader market slipped 1.1% today, Pi Coin price still gained 0.8% and is up 11.5% over the past month. Keeping PI’s price history in mind, the 11.5% move isn’t anything less than a rally.

It recently failed a breakout that could have taken it higher, but the trend hasn’t flipped bearish. Several early signs show buyers still holding control, and the rally may not be done yet.

Early Trend Still Points To A Price Rebound

Pi Coin’s first bullish signal comes from the 4-hour chart, which helps spot early trend changes. On this timeframe, the 20-period EMA is closing in on the 50-period EMA. An EMA (Exponential Moving Average) tracks price over time with more weight on recent candles. A bullish crossover happens when the short-term EMA moves above the long-term EMA, often marking a momentum shift.

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A similar crossover attempt happened on November 11, but sellers stepped in before the lines crossed, forcing the move to fail. If bulls hold price steady this time, the crossover could complete and give Pi Coin its next push.

On the daily chart, the Bull-Bear Power indicator supports this idea. The indicator tracks the gap between buying pressure and selling pressure. Despite the failed breakout at $0.229, Bull-Bear Power has flipped firmly into bullish territory, showing buyers are still in control.

If this strength continues, the EMA crossover is less likely to fail like it did on November 11.

Pi Coin Price Action And Money Flow Hold The Key

The Pi Coin price continues to struggle with $0.229, which has rejected every breakout attempt so far in the near-term. If a daily close forms above this level, the next target becomes $0.236 (another strong resistance), followed by a possible move toward $0.266, the upper resistance zone.

The failed breakout earlier this week lined up with a drop in Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). CMF measures whether big wallets are adding or removing capital. Pi Coin saw inflows between November 15–16, but money quickly exited afterward, falling back toward the trendline.

As long as CMF stays above its rising trendline, buyers still have a path to regain control. A break back above the zero line would confirm big money returning, strengthening the bullish case and supporting the EMA crossover from the 4-hour chart.

If CMF falls under the trendline, the downside opens up. In that case, Pi Coin could revisit $0.201, and under deeper market stress, even lower levels.

For now, Pi Coin needs only a 0.48% push to close above $0.229. If the crossover completes and CMF turns back up, Pi Coin may finally clear this barrier and extend its month-long rally.

The post Why Pi Coin’s Failed Breakout Isn’t the End of Its Month-Long Rally? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The FIRO price has surged almost 60% in the past 24 hours and is now up more than 300% over the past month. The move has outpaced even Zcash, one of the strongest privacy coins this cycle. FIRO, previously known as Zcoin, is clearly riding the renewed momentum in the privacy coin space.

The key question now is whether this rally still has fuel left — and whether FIRO can realistically revisit the $10+ zone.

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Flag Breakout Sets the Tone for FIRO’s Rally

FIRO recently broke out of a flag pattern, a classic bullish continuation structure that forms when price pauses after a sharp run-up.

The pole formed between October 31 and November 10, followed by a tight consolidation from November 10–15. FIRO then broke out on November 15, completing the pattern.

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Based on the pole projection, the technical target sits near $8.49, assuming broader market conditions remain supportive. With privacy coins catching strong flows across the board, FIRO has a realistic shot at reaching this extension.

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Big Money Flows and Bull-Bear Power Add Strength to the Move

The breakout has strong backing from volume-based indicators. FIRO’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — an indicator that
measures buying vs selling pressure weighted by volume — has been rising through the consolidation. CMF held steady even as the FIRO price was consolidating, indicating that big wallets were quietly accumulating during the dip.

The CMF ascending trendline breakout is still pending. A clean move above the upper CMF trendline would confirm a new wave of inflows and support FIRO’s next leg toward the projected target. However, until the CMF breakout happens, the FIRO price action remains prone to pullbacks.

The Bull-Bear Power indicator also confirms strength. This indicator measures the gap between buying pressure and selling pressure. On FIRO’s chart, Bull-Bear Power has surged to bullish levels higher than those seen during the original pole, validating the force behind this breakout.

Both indicators support the idea that the FIRO price rally might have more room to run.

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FIRO Price Levels That Matter Next

The FIRO price now faces two major hurdles.

• The first resistance sits at $6.01. A daily close above this level strengthens the momentum case.
• The next major resistance sits at $8.18, just below the pole-derived target.

Crossing both levels keeps the $8.49 projection in play.

If FIRO clears $8.49 (the pole projection), the next psychological and technical target becomes $10.35, marking the return of the double-digit zone.

On the downside, a move below $3.00 weakens the structure, and falling under $2.49 breaks it completely. These are the invalidation levels for the current rally. That could happen only if a FIRO price pullback runs deeper, led by big money exiting and not breaking the trendline that we mentioned earlier.

The post FIRO’cious Price Rally Shows No Signs of Slowing — Can It Extend Beyond $10? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

HBAR is down almost 11% in the past week, and yesterday it finally broke below its neckline, completing the head and shoulders pattern we projected on November 13. Despite the breakdown, the last 24 hours have been surprisingly flat.

And while the structure still points toward lower levels, early signs suggest that traders betting on deeper downside may be walking into a bear trap instead. Here is why.

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Selling Rises and Shorts Pile Up — But The Setup Isn’t That Simple

HBAR’s spot flows show a sharp shift in behaviour after the breakdown. On November 14, HBAR recorded –4.03 million in net outflows, meaning more tokens were leaving exchanges as buyers accumulated.

Today, after the pattern breakdown confirmed, flows flipped to +420,790 HBAR.

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That is a 110% swing from negative to positive netflow — a clear sign that sellers have stepped in aggressively after the pattern break.

The derivatives market shows an even stronger tilt. On Bitget’s liquidation map alone, short exposure is $16.71 million, while long exposure is $6.09 million. This means shorts now control 73% of all leveraged positions — about 2.7 times more than longs.

This kind of crowded positioning often fuels the conditions for a bear trap risk, where price briefly reverses upward and forces shorts to close their positions at a loss.

The HBAR price breakdown has occurred, yes — but this positioning makes it dangerous to assume the move will continue uninterrupted.

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One Move Could Drive HBAR Price Rebound, Hitting Short Liquidations

The price chart contains the key reason a bear trap is possible. While HBAR broke below the neckline, the follow-through has been weak. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a metric that measures price momentum to show if an asset is oversold or overbought — is showing a notable pattern.

Between October 17 and November 14, the price made a lower low, while RSI formed a higher low. This is a bullish RSI divergence, and it often appears just before a short-term reversal attempt.

If the divergence plays out, the first trigger is a move back above $0.160, which is exactly where the neckline sits. Reclaiming this level puts a large block of short positions at risk.

The liquidation map shows that shorts begin getting squeezed as the price rises above this zone.

A push above $0.180 would confirm the trap is fully in place and force even deeper short liquidations, giving HBAR room for a stronger rebound. However, the trap only works if buyers hold key support levels.

If HBAR drops below $0.155, the divergence weakens and the downtrend regains control. In that case, the head and shoulders projection remains valid, opening the way toward the earlier bearish target near $0.113.

The post HBAR Price Breakdown Was Expected — The Bear Trap Risk Was Not appeared first on BeInCrypto.

XRP price is down almost 8% in the past week, and even though the last 24 hours have been flat, the absence of red cannot be mistaken for strength.

The chart and on-chain data indicate that XRP is under real pressure, despite one group of investors continuing to buy the dip.

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Short-Term Holders Keep Buying — But One Group Doesn’t Agree

HODL Waves — a metric that shows how much supply each holding-duration group controls — reveals that two short-term cohorts have been steadily accumulating XRP through the month.

On October 16, wallets holding XRP for 1–3 months controlled 8.94% of supply. As of November 14, they hold 9.17%.

Another short-term cohort, the 1-week to 1-month group, has increased from 3.74% to 5.53% of the supply in the same period.

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Despite the XRP price dropping 7.8% over the past 30 days, these groups are accumulating, likely positioning for short-term bounces.

But this buying doesn’t seem strong enough to lift the price for one key reason.

The Hodler Net Position Change — a metric that tracks the amount of long-term investor supply entering or leaving wallets — indicates that long-term holders are selling aggressively. It showed heavy negative flow on November 3, when long-term wallets removed 102.50 million XRP. Instead of easing, outflows continued to rise.

By November 14, the number had jumped to 181.50 million XRP: a 77% increase in long-term selling pressure in less than two weeks.

This is the core reason the XRP price was unable to bounce: short-term buying is being overwhelmed by long-term exits.

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XRP Price Feels the Pressure as Big Money Steps Back

On the chart, XRP is still struggling to break above $2.26, a strong 0.618 Fibonacci resistance level. The push higher is weakening because money inflows are fading rapidly.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) — which measures buying and selling pressure — has plunged since November 10. It now sits at –0.15, showing net outflows. CMF has also broken below a descending trendline, indicating that larger investors are withdrawing rather than adding. When CMF stays negative while breaking trend support, upside attempts usually fail.

If weakness continues, XRP risks losing $2.17, exposing a deeper move toward $2.06. A breakdown below $2.06 would invalidate any short-term bullish attempts.

The only way to regain momentum is a clean daily close above $2.38 — a level that has rejected the price multiple times this month. Clearing it could open a path toward $2.57 and flip the near-term structure bullish.

The post XRP Dip Buyers Are Active — So Why Is the Price Still Falling? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

November has been rough for most of the market, and even several ‘made in USA’ coins have slipped significantly. The broader trend has been weak, with few assets holding their levels while traders wait for a clearer direction.

But as the market tries to stabilise, three of these US-based coins are showing early signs that they could rebound. One has a rare negative correlation with Bitcoin. Another is forming a clean reversal structure. And the third coin has drawn sudden whale activity. These factors make them worth watching this week.

Litecoin (LTC)

One of the first made in USA coins to watch this week is Litecoin (LTC). It has climbed a little over 8% in the past 30 days and about 7% in the past 24 hours, showing unexpected resilience during a rough November.

A big reason behind this strength is its negative correlation with Bitcoin. The Pearson correlation coefficient between LTC and BTC sits at –0.01 over the past month.

The Pearson coefficient measures how two assets move relative to each other; a negative reading means they move in different directions.

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Since Bitcoin has dropped more than 13.5% in the same period, Litecoin’s lack of correlation has actually helped it hold better than most top coins.

But correlation is not the only factor here. The chart is also forming a clean inverse head and shoulders pattern, with the price now hovering near $102.

If LTC manages a daily close above $119, it would complete the pattern and open the door to a move toward $135 or higher if broader conditions improve. This resistance level has capped upside attempts before, so a break would signal real momentum.

The Smart Money Index, which tracks how informed or early-moving traders position themselves, has also begun turning up since November 13.

That shift shows some early confidence returning as LTC pushes toward the pattern’s neckline. The combination of a curling Smart Money Index and price pressing into a breakout zone makes this week especially important for this setup.

If buyers fail to lift Litecoin above resistance, the first key support sits at $93. A drop below that level weakens the reversal structure, and falling under $79 would invalidate the pattern entirely.

Solana (SOL)

Among the ‘made in USA’ coins gaining attention this week, Solana (SOL) stands out for a different reason. It has had a rough month, dropping almost 27% over the past 30 days. Even so, the chart is starting to show hints of a possible short-term reversal that traders cannot ignore.

The signal comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures price momentum to show when an asset may be overbought or oversold.

Between November 4 and November 14, Solana’s price formed a lower low, while RSI formed a higher low. This formation is known as a bullish RSI divergence, and it often appears just before a trend attempts to turn, even if the reversal is brief.

If this divergence plays out, Solana’s immediate test is $162. It is a strong resistance level that has held since November 5 (breaking once in between).

Breaking above $162 would open the door toward $170. And if momentum strengthens, the price could push as high as $205 in the short term.

But the setup only holds if buyers defend $135. A drop below that support would weaken the structure and expose $126.

Chainlink (LINK)

The final pick on this week’s list is Chainlink (LINK), which has had a tough month of its own. It has declined by more than 20% over the past 30 days and has logged an additional 10%+ drop during the past week.

Even so, something unusual has appeared in its holder activity, making LINK a key token to watch this week as the market attempts to stabilise.

Despite the decline, whale accumulation has surged in the last seven days. Regular whale holdings have jumped 8.92%, while the top 100 addresses—larger “mega whales”—have increased their combined stash by 1.51%.

When whales buy into weakness instead of exiting, it often hints at early positioning for a potential reversal.

The chart explains why they may be stepping in. Between October 10 and November 14, LINK’s price made a lower low, while its RSI formed a higher low. This created a standard bullish divergence. This is the same momentum shift seen in Solana, and it often appears near the early stages of trend reversals.

For the setup to activate, LINK needs to reclaim $16.10, which requires roughly a 17% move from current levels. Clearing $16.10 opens the path toward $17.57.

If a daily close forms above that zone, LINK could stretch toward $21.64 or higher if broader market conditions improve.

If buyers fail to hold support, the key level to watch is $13.72. A daily candle close below it would break the current structure and likely invalidate the bullish reversal signal. The reversal, then, would have to wait longer.

The post 3 Made In USA Coins to Watch in the Third Week of November appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The cryptocurrency market has spent most of November in the red, with the TOTAL index dropping approximately 20% month-over-month, before rebounding briefly at press time. That weakness has revived talk that a new bear market may already be starting.

Yet despite the fear, crypto whales are buying, which shows that the biggest wallets are positioning early instead of exiting. These wallets are quietly adding to three tokens that are not hype-driven but supported by real activity and fundamentals. Their 30-day accumulation suggests early preparation in case the broader market breaks lower.

Optimism (OP)

The first token that crypto whales are buying, while expecting a bear market, is Optimism (OP). The broader crypto market has dropped sharply over the past month, and this altcoin is down 13.3%, yet the biggest OP whales show firm conviction.

The top 100 Optimism addresses have increased their holdings by 3.15% over the last 30 days. At today’s OP price, that addition is worth roughly $54 million, showing that mega whales are not shaken by market weakness.

Optimism is one of the larger Layer-2 scaling projects, which could be why whales see long-term value even if market sentiment weakens.

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Their confidence lines up with the chart. On the two-day timeframe, OP’s price made a lower low between April 7 and November 3, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low.

The RSI measures momentum to show when an asset is overbought or oversold. This mismatch is a bullish RSI divergence, a signal that often appears when downside pressure is fading and a larger trend reversal may be forming.

Crypto whales often look for these shifts when positioning early into altcoins.

For that reversal to activate, OP needs a clean break above $0.47, a level that has blocked every rally since mid-October. A breakout there opens the path to $0.61, and even $0.85 if sentiment improves.

On the downside, losing $0.38 puts $0.31 back in play. A breakdown below $0.31 exposes $0.23 and would invalidate the bullish setup whales seem to be positioning for.

Aster (ASTER)

The next token crypto whales are buying is Aster (ASTER). The pace here is significantly faster than what we saw in Optimism. Over the past 30 days, whales have expanded their holdings by 140%, pushing their total stash to 67.03 million ASTER.

At the current price of nearly $1.13, the total whale stack is worth approximately $75.7 million, with nearly $44 million coming from recent buying.

Smart money wallets have also moved in the same direction. Their holdings have jumped 678% over the past month.

The chart supports the actions these wallets are taking. The ASTER price has broken out of a falling channel on the 12-hour chart, indicating that the bearish trend is losing force. You can also see a clear standard bullish RSI divergence between October 17 and November 14.

The ASTER price made a lower low during that period, while the RSI made a higher low. That shift suggests momentum is turning, and price could follow if buyers stay active.

Short-term price action already reflects some of this. Aster is up almost 9% in the past 24 hours, but the bigger picture still leans toward a reversal rather than a simple bounce.

If this structure continues to hold, the next major hurdle sits at $1.29. This level blocked the rally attempt on November 2, so a clean close would confirm stronger upside.

If that break happens, Aster could stretch toward $1.59 next.

On the downside, $1.11 remains the first line of support. Losing $1.11 opens the path to $1.00, and if that fails, the deeper level at $0.81 would come into play.

Maple Finance (SYRUP)

The third token crypto whales are buying, expecting a bear market, is Maple Finance (SYRUP). Maple is a DeFi lending project that focuses on institutional credit. Its setup is bullish, but in a more measured way compared to Optimism and Aster.

Over the past 30 days, the top 100 mega-whale addresses have increased their holdings by 3.47%, raising their combined stash to 1.11 billion SYRUP.

At the current price, the total mega-whale stack is valued at approximately $499.5 million. Other holder groups are moving in the same direction.

Smart money wallets have added 1.86%, and regular whales have increased their holdings by 4.57%. When all these groups point in the same direction, it usually reflects rising confidence.

The chart shows why traders might be positioning here. SYRUP is trying to complete an inverse head and shoulders pattern (for quite some time now).

The neckline is currently positioned near $0.53. If the price moves above it, the breakout becomes valid, and the target would extend toward $0.65 or even higher.

There is also the On-Balance Volume (OBV) trend to consider. On-Balance Volume (OBV) is an indicator that tracks buying and selling pressure. Buying has appeared on OBV, but the indicator is still sitting under a falling trendline that began around October 14.

For a stronger trend reversal, whales likely want to see both: a break above the neckline at $0.53 and OBV breaking that trendline at the same time.

When price and OBV break together, rallies tend to hold better.

For now, the setup shows conviction, not confirmation. Yet, if buyers fail and the price slips, the invalidation sits at $0.38. A drop under $0.38 would weaken the pattern and could push SYRUP toward $0.28.

The post What Crypto Whales are Buying Amid the Bear Market appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The Bitcoin price has dropped sharply this month. Since early November, it has fallen almost 15%, turning one of the strongest assets of the year into one of the weakest in the current pullback.

The drop has pushed the market into two camps again. Some believe this is the start of a deeper correction. Others believe the cycle is still unfolding, and this is merely an oversized dip. The next move depends on one level. If Bitcoin reclaims it, the rebound setup activates. If it fails there, the downside can widen fast.

Bitcoin Momentum Softens the Fall, but One Level Must Validate It

There are early signs that sellers may be losing strength.

The Relative Strength Index entered the oversold zone this week and has since reversed. That usually shows that selling pressure is easing.

A longer-term pattern also supports that view. Between April 30 and November 14, Bitcoin price formed a higher low, which means the broader trend is not fully broken. However, over the same period, the RSI also made a lower low. This is a hidden bullish divergence, a signal that often appears when a strong trend is attempting to resume after a significant correction.

For the RSI sign to play out, the Bitcoin price must cross above $100,300 ( a key support since late April), which might now act as a psychological resistance.

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Supply data points to the same area on the chart. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows a large band of long-term Bitcoins created near the $100,900 zone.

When a cluster like this forms, it often becomes a significant decision point because a large portion of the supply is at the same cost basis. This cost-basis cluster falls near the resistance level highlighted on the RSI chart.

This is why the momentum story only matters if the BTC price closes back above that region. Without that close, the divergence and oversold readings remain unconfirmed.

A One-Year Low in NUPL Keeps the Bottoming Case Alive

The second argument for a rebound comes from the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric.

NUPL has now dropped to 0.40, its lowest reading in a year. This means the market is back to holding very thin unrealized profits, similar to early-cycle periods.

The last time NUPL hit a comparable low was in April. From there, Bitcoin climbed roughly 46% in less than two months. While this does not guarantee a repeat, it shows the market is entering a familiar pressure zone where rebounds often form if the price can stabilize.

But again, this indicator also depends on price reclaiming the same resistance band. Without that, the Bitcoin bottoming theory stays open but inactive.

Bitcoin Price Trades in a Falling Channel — With Two Critical Levels In Sight

Bitcoin remains within a falling channel, maintaining a bearish short-term trend.

The first step out of it is simple: regain $100,300. A daily close above $101,600 strengthens the move and flips the old support back into support.

If that happens, the next important level sits near $106,300. Breaking above it would push Bitcoin out of the falling channel. That would shift the trend from bearish to neutral and could turn it bullish if momentum improves.

The bust risk sits underneath. The lower band of the channel only has two clean touches, which makes it structurally weak. If Bitcoin loses $93,900–$92,800, the pattern opens deeper levels, and the “extended cycle” view becomes much harder to defend.

Right now, everything rests on one decision point. Above $100,300, the Bitcoin price stabilizes. Below $93,900, the slide can get much worse.

The post This Bitcoin Price Level Stands Between Boom and Bust appeared first on BeInCrypto.

HBAR turun hampir 11% dalam minggu terakhir, dan kemarin akhirnya jatuh di bawah neckline-nya, menyelesaikan pola head and shoulders yang kami proyeksikan pada 13 November. Meskipun terjadi breakdown, 24 jam terakhir surprisingly datar.

Dan meskipun strukturnya masih mengarah ke level lebih rendah, tanda-tanda awal menunjukkan bahwa trader yang bertaruh pada penurunan lebih dalam mungkin justru terjebak dalam bear trap. Inilah alasannya.

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Penjualan Meningkat dan Short Menumpuk — Namun Setup Tidak Sesederhana Itu

Arus HBAR menunjukkan perubahan tajam dalam perilaku setelah breakdown. Pada 14 November, HBAR mencatatkan arus bersih –4,03 juta, yang berarti lebih banyak token meninggalkan exchange karena pembeli mengumpulkan.

Hari ini, setelah breakdown pola yang dikonfirmasi, arus berubah menjadi +420.790 HBAR.

Ingin wawasan token lebih seperti ini? Daftar untuk Newsletter Harian Crypto Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.

Itu adalah perubahan 110% dari arus bersih negatif menjadi positif — tanda jelas bahwa penjual telah masuk secara agresif setelah pola itu pecah.

Pasar derivatif menunjukkan kecenderungan yang lebih kuat. Pada peta likuidasi Bitget saja, eksposur short adalah US$16,71 juta, sementara eksposur long adalah US$6,09 juta. Ini berarti short sekarang mengendalikan 73% dari semua posisi leveraged — sekitar 2,7 kali lebih banyak daripada long.

Jenis posisi yang padat seperti ini sering kali memicu kondisi untuk risiko bear trap, di mana harga berbalik arah ke atas dan memaksa posisi short ditutup dengan kerugian.

Breakdown harga HBAR memang terjadi, namun, posisi ini membuatnya berbahaya untuk mengasumsikan bahwa pergerakan akan berlanjut tanpa henti.

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Satu Gerakan Bisa Dorong Reli Harga HBAR, Memukul Likuidasi Short

Grafik harga mengandung alasan utama mengapa bear trap mungkin terjadi. Meskipun HBAR jatuh di bawah neckline, tindak lanjutnya lemah. Pada saat yang sama, Relative Strength Index (RSI) — metrik yang mengukur momentum harga untuk menunjukkan apakah aset oversold atau overbought — menunjukkan pola yang signifikan.

Antara 17 Oktober dan 14 November, harga membuat lower low, sementara RSI membentuk higher low. Ini adalah bullish RSI divergence, yang sering muncul tepat sebelum upaya pembalikan jangka pendek.

Jika divergence ini terjadi, pemicu pertama adalah pergerakan kembali di atas US$0,160, yang merupakan lokasi tepat di mana neckline berada. Mengambil kembali level ini menempatkan blok besar posisi short dalam risiko.

Peta likuidasi menunjukkan bahwa short mulai ditekan ketika harga naik di atas zona ini.

Pergerakan di atas US$0,180 akan mengonfirmasi trap sepenuhnya dan memaksa likuidasi short yang lebih dalam, memberikan HBAR ruang untuk rebound lebih kuat. Namun, trap hanya bekerja jika pembeli mempertahankan level support kunci.

Jika HBAR turun di bawah US$0,155, divergence melemah dan tren penurunan kembali menguasai. Dalam kasus itu, proyeksi head and shoulders tetap valid, membuka jalan menuju target bearish sebelumnya di sekitar US$0,113.