Posts on X (Twitter) suggest that Bitmain co-founder Micree “James” Zhan Ketuan may be facing a billion-dollar fine, alleged detention, and a complete fallout with business partner Jihan Wu.

Conflicting reports leave the crypto community scrambling to verify the details of one of the sector’s most high-profile crises.

Bitmain Co-Founders at Center of Growing Speculation and Uncertainty

Bitmain, a pioneer in Bitcoin mining hardware, controls equipment powering over 74% of the global Bitcoin hash rate. It is also responsible for chips used in AI data centers running Nvidia H100s.

The company now finds itself at the intersection of geopolitics, legal scrutiny, and internal corporate strife.

On December 21, 2025, crypto veteran Chandler Guo sparked speculation with a cryptic social media post referencing an industry colleague’s “deep-sea fishing” ordeal. The term is used to describe covert detention in China, worth several billion dollars over six months.

According to Guo, while the individual emerged safely, he had learned a hard lesson that even the biggest backers are not reliable. When they fall, their associates suffer as well.

“There’s an old friend from the crypto circle by my side who just went through an experience of being deep-sea fished. It’s said to involve several billion US dollars, and he’s been dealing with it for half a year. Fortunately, the person has already safely come out of it…He relied on his backer’s connections to strike down his opponents, but he also got bitten back by the backer’s own enemies,” wrote Guo.

Observers quickly connected Guo’s account to Zhan. Rumors circulating in crypto circles indicate fines ranging from $1 billion to $10 billion, though none have been officially confirmed.

Some reports claim Zhan paid a $1 billion penalty, while others allege he fled to Indonesia two months ago and remains missing. A Chinese community lead, popular on X, confirmed two key developments:

• Recent disruptions in Xinjiang’s mining operations and
• Escalating internal conflict between Bitmain’s co-founders.

Dual CEO System Collapses Amid Founder Conflict

Bitmain’s dual CEO structure, which allowed both Zhan and Wu to lead the company, collapsed completely in 2025. Wu, a Peking University graduate, reportedly used political connections to challenge Zhan, a Chinese Academy of Sciences alumnus who focused on chip design and production.

Their rift mirrors broader industry risks, demonstrating the dangers of intertwining business with influential backers.

This alleged internal upheaval comes as Bitmain faces mounting external pressures. While Zhan historically focused on technical operations, Wu has led strategic partnerships and business development.

The absence of either founder could leave operational gaps at a time when Bitmain remains central to Bitcoin mining worldwide. The firm is already facing a lawsuit from Old Const alleging breach of a hosting deal and attempts to reclaim mining hardware without cause.

Geopolitical Risks and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

Beyond corporate disputes, Bitmain faces scrutiny from US authorities over potential hardware security threats. In June, Bitmain and two other firms relocated to the US to bypass new tariffs and optimize supply chains.

However, with the company’s mining infrastructure embedded in both crypto and AI data centers, national security concerns amplify the stakes.

Any compromise could ripple through global Bitcoin networks, highlighting crypto’s ongoing vulnerability to geopolitical tensions.

Recent crackdowns on Xinjiang mining farms, combined with Zhan’s alleged detention, have fueled speculation of coordinated regulatory pressure.

The crypto sector remains vigilant, as the situation could impact mining hardware markets, supply chains, and competitive dynamics.

The post Reports Spark Questions About Bitmain Leadership and Internal Disputes appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The US dollar’s global reserve share dropped to 56.32% in Q2 2025, but 92% of that decline was driven by exchange-rate effects, not central bank portfolio changes. Currency adjustments show a marginal decline to just 57.67%, indicating central banks largely maintained their USD holdings.

The International Monetary Fund’s new Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) report provides important insights for crypto investors tracking macroeconomic trends. The data reveals that central banks kept dollar allocations steady, even amid notable currency swings during the quarter.

IMF: Central Banks Stayed Dollar-Heavy Despite Depreciation

The IMF’s COFER dataset tracks currency reserves from 149 economies in US dollars. In Q2 2025, major currency movements gave the impression of large portfolio reallocations.

According to the report, the DXY index declined by more than 10% in the first half of 2025, its biggest drop since 1973.

The US dollar declined 7.9% against the euro and 9.6% against the Swiss franc in Q2. These swings lowered the USD reserve share from 57.79% to 56.32%. However, this reduction reflected exchange-rate effects rather than active reallocation.

Adjusted for constant exchange rates, the dollar’s reserve share edged down only 0.12% to 57.67%. This indicates that central banks made minimal changes to their dollar reserves during the quarter, challenging stories of global dedollarization.

Similarly, the euro’s reserve share appeared to rise to 21.13%, an increase of 1.13 points. Yet, this was also driven entirely by currency valuations.

At constant exchange rates, the euro’s share declined slightly by 0.04 points, showing central banks actually trimmed euro holdings.

What This Means for Bitcoin and Altcoins

This analysis offers muted macro signals for Bitcoin and other digital assets marketed as hedges against US dollar weakness. Central banks did not diversify away from the dollar even as the currency depreciated significantly.

Dedollarization trends are often highlighted as possible drivers of institutional adoption of crypto. However, the COFER data, once adjusted for exchange rates, suggest that these trends can be misleading without proper context.

The British pound also saw its reserve share appear to grow in Q2, but this was another valuation effect covering up a real decrease in holdings. These findings demonstrate why investors should look beyond headline numbers to understand the actual shifts in liquidity.

The IMF’s study provides investors a more accurate view of monetary policy during volatile markets. By distinguishing between true policy moves and temporary valuation changes, crypto investors can better evaluate global macro trends.

Central Bank Reserve Strategies and Outlook

Dollar holdings remained stable in Q2 2025, showing central banks still rely on traditional currencies even as digital alternatives gain attention. The IMF emphasized that exchange-rate adjustments are crucial for understanding reserve shifts accurately.

The US dollar’s share of global foreign reserves held steady in Q2, after adjustment for currency fluctuations. Exchange-rate effects drove nearly all the decline in the US currency’s share of reserves. Our blog has the details. https://t.co/XtaRfBIbqL pic.twitter.com/fXcUkRkg7U

— IMF (@IMFNews) December 21, 2025

Central banks prioritize liquidity, returns, and risk when managing reserves. The dollar’s strong position is linked to deep markets, high transaction utility, and established systems. These aspects are still hurdles for digital assets to overcome.

The IMF’s methodology reveals how currency changes can distort reserve data. In Q2, nearly all reported shifts in major currencies resulted from valuation swings, not actual portfolio rebalancing. Central banks maintained a careful stance during the market’s turbulence.

These findings help clarify global trends shaping crypto markets. Investors interested in dedollarization as a Bitcoin catalyst should rely on exchange-rate-adjusted numbers.

The post IMF Q2 2025 COFER Data Weakens Dedollarization Narratives Cited as Bullish Catalysts for Bitcoin appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin’s price may still dominate headlines, but among analysts and institutional strategists, attention is quietly shifting elsewhere.

Instead of debating whether Bitcoin can reclaim upside momentum in the near term, market observers are increasingly focused on a deeper question: whether the structural signals that once reliably guided Bitcoin’s four-year cycle are beginning to fracture.

Analysts Are No Longer Looking at Bitcoin Price As Demand Signals Quietly Deteriorate

The shift comes on the backdrop of fading demand indicators, rising exchange flows, and a growing divide between analysts.

On the one hand, some believe Bitcoin is entering a traditional post-peak correction. On the other hand, others argue that the pioneer crypto may be breaking free from its historical cycle altogether.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades argues that recent price behavior has already challenged one of Bitcoin’s most dependable seasonal assumptions.

“BTC Looking ahead, Q1 is generally a good quarter for Bitcoin, but so was Q4, and that one didn’t quite work out this time. No doubt 2025 has been a very messy year. Massive inflows and treasury accumulation, which were matched by big OG whales and 4-year cycle selling. Q1 2026 is where Bitcoin has a chance to show whether the 4-year cycle persists or not,” he wrote.

Rather than signaling a definitive breakdown, the underperformance suggests friction. ETF inflows and corporate accumulation are being absorbed by long-term holder distribution, muting the impact those inflows once had on BTC price.

That structural tension is also visible in US spot market data. According to Kyle Doops, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium, often used as a proxy for US institutional demand, has remained negative for an extended period.

The Coinbase $BTC premium has stayed negative for 7 straight days, now around -0.04% per Coinglass.

That usually signals U.S. spot demand is lagging the rest of the market.

Less aggressive institutional buying, softer risk appetite, and capital staying cautious.

Not panic, but… pic.twitter.com/HtjNSorO1I

— Kyledoops (@kyledoops) December 21, 2025

The message is not capitulation, but hesitation, which means capital is present, yet unwilling to chase.

Exchange Flows Point to Distribution, Not Accumulation

On-chain data highlights the need for cautious interpretation, as Bitcoin exchange inflows surge to levels historically associated with late-cycle behavior.

“Monthly exchange flows have surged to $10.9 billion, the highest since May 2021. High exchange flows like this signify increased selling pressure, as investors move assets onto exchanges to liquidate positions, take profits, or hedge against downturns. This is further evidence of a market top and the start of a bear market amid heightened volatility,” said analyst Jacob King.

Historically, similar spikes have coincided with profit-taking phases rather than early accumulation periods.

If History Holds, Cycle Math Still Points Lower with Institutions Split but Disciplined

On-chain analyst Ali Charts argues that despite structural changes, Bitcoin’s timing symmetry remains striking.

“Bitcoin’s price cycles have followed a strikingly consistent pattern, both in timing and magnitude. Historically, it takes around 1,064 days from the market bottom to the market top, and about 364 days from the top back to the next bottom,” he wrote, outlining how previous cycles adhered closely to that rhythm.

If that pattern persists, the analyst suggests that the market may now be inside its corrective window. Historical retracements imply further downside before a durable reset.

At the institutional level, views are diverging without turning chaotic. Fundstrat’s Head of Crypto Strategy Sean Farrell acknowledged near-term pressures while maintaining a longer-term bullish framework.

“Bitcoin is currently in a valuation ‘no man’s land’,” Farrell said, citing ETF redemptions, selling by original holders, miner pressure, and macro uncertainty. Still, he added, “I still expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new all-time highs before the end of the year, thereby ending the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter, smaller bear market.”

The Cycle Debate Is Now Institutional

That possibility is echoed by Tom Lee, whose view has been amplified across crypto commentary, suggesting that Bitcoin will soon break its 4-year cycle.

TOM LEE THINKS BITCOIN WILL BREAK THE 4-YEAR CYCLE SOON! pic.twitter.com/eWZdW7xkgW

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) December 21, 2025

Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer takes the opposite stance. According to Lark Davis, Timmer believes Bitcoin’s October peak marked both a price and time top, with “2026… a down year” and support forming in the $65,000–$75,000 range.

"The bear market is here and Bitcoin is heading down to $65,000"

That's what Fidelity's director of global macro Jurrien Timmer thinks.

While Jurrien is bullish on $BTC in the long term, he believes that Bitcoin is once again following its historical 4-year cycle driven by its… pic.twitter.com/KFPcBWTcZP

— Lark Davis (@LarkDavis) December 21, 2025

Together, these perspectives show why analysts are no longer fixated solely on Bitcoin price. The pioneer crypto’s next move may not decide who was bullish or bearish, but whether the framework that has defined its market for over a decade still applies at all.

The post Analysts Look Beyond Bitcoin’s Price As Tom Lee Flags a Structural Shift appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Postingan di X (Twitter) menunjukkan bahwa co-founder Bitmain, Micree “James” Zhan Ketuan, mungkin sedang menghadapi denda bernilai miliaran US$, dugaan penahanan, dan konflik besar dengan rekan bisnisnya, Jihan Wu.

Laporan yang saling bertentangan membuat komunitas aset kripto berusaha keras memverifikasi detail dari salah satu krisis paling besar di sektor ini.

Co-founder Bitmain jadi pusat spekulasi dan ketidakpastian yang semakin meningkat

Bitmain, pelopor dalam perangkat keras mining Bitcoin, menguasai peralatan yang memperkuat lebih dari 74% hash rate Bitcoin secara global. Perusahaan ini juga memproduksi chip yang dipakai di data center AI, termasuk untuk menjalankan Nvidia H100.

Sekarang, perusahaan itu berada di tengah persimpangan geopolitik, pengawasan hukum, dan konflik internal di jajaran korporasi mereka sendiri.

Pada 21 Desember 2025, veteran kripto Chandler Guo memicu spekulasi lewat unggahan media sosial yang membagikan kisah samar tentang rekan industri yang mengalami peristiwa “deep-sea fishing”. Istilah ini digunakan untuk menggambarkan penahanan rahasia di Cina, dengan dugaan nilai beberapa miliar US$ dalam waktu enam bulan.

Berdasarkan penuturan Guo, meski orang tersebut akhirnya selamat, ia mendapat pelajaran keras bahwa bahkan pendukung terbesar pun tidak selalu dapat dipercaya. Jika mereka bermasalah, rekan-rekan mereka pun terkena imbasnya.

“There’s an old friend from the crypto circle by my side who just went through an experience of being deep-sea fished. It’s said to involve several billion US dollars, and he’s been dealing with it for half a year. Fortunately, the person has already safely come out of it…He relied on his backer’s connections to strike down his opponents, but he also got bitten back by the backer’s own enemies,” tulis Guo.

Pengamat dengan cepat mengaitkan cerita Guo dengan Zhan. Rumor yang beredar di kalangan kripto menyebutkan adanya denda antara US$1 miliar sampai US$10 miliar, tapi belum ada yang terkonfirmasi secara resmi.

Beberapa laporan mengklaim Zhan telah membayar denda sebesar US$1 miliar, sedangkan laporan lain menyebutkan bahwa ia melarikan diri ke Indonesia dua bulan lalu dan belum ditemukan. Seorang tokoh komunitas Cina yang terkenal di X mengonfirmasi dua perkembangan penting berikut:

• Gangguan baru-baru ini di operasi mining Xinjiang dan
• Konflik internal yang semakin memanas antara para co-founder Bitmain.

Sistem CEO Ganda runtuh karena konflik para founder

Struktur CEO ganda Bitmain, yang memberi kesempatan bagi Zhan dan Wu untuk sama-sama memimpin perusahaan, benar-benar runtuh pada 2025. Wu, lulusan Universitas Peking, dikabarkan memanfaatkan koneksi politik untuk menantang Zhan, alumnus Akademi Ilmu Pengetahuan Cina yang berfokus pada desain dan produksi chip.

Pertikaian mereka mencerminkan risiko yang lebih luas di industri, memperlihatkan bahaya mengaitkan bisnis dengan pendukung berpengaruh.

Dugaan gejolak internal ini muncul saat Bitmain menghadapi tekanan eksternal yang makin berat. Zhan selama ini lebih fokus pada operasi teknis, sedangkan Wu mengurusi kemitraan strategis dan pengembangan bisnis.

Absennya salah satu founder bisa saja membuat operasional jadi timpang, padahal Bitmain tetap menjadi pusat mining Bitcoin dunia. Perusahaan ini sudah digugat oleh Old Const dengan tuduhan pelanggaran kontrak hosting dan upaya mengambil kembali perangkat mining tanpa alasan.

Risiko Geopolitik dan Kerentanan Infrastruktur

Selain konflik perusahaan, Bitmain juga mendapat sorotan dari pihak otoritas AS karena potensi ancaman keamanan perangkat kerasnya. Pada bulan Juni, Bitmain dan dua perusahaan lain pindah ke AS untuk menghindari tarif baru dan mengefisiensi rantai pasokan mereka.

Namun, dengan infrastruktur mining perusahaan yang terpasang baik pada sektor kripto maupun data center AI, isu keamanan nasional membuat risiko semakin besar.

Setiap kompromi bisa menimbulkan efek berantai pada jaringan Bitcoin global, memperjelas betapa aset kripto masih rentan terhadap gejolak geopolitik.

Penindakan baru-baru ini terhadap mining farm di Xinjiang, ditambah dengan dugaan penahanan Zhan, telah memicu spekulasi adanya tekanan regulasi yang terkoordinasi.

Sektor aset kripto tetap waspada, karena situasi ini bisa berdampak pada pasar perangkat mining, rantai pasok, dan dinamika persaingan.

Share global cadangan devisa US$ turun jadi 56,32% di Q2 2025, tapi 92% penurunan ini terjadi karena efek nilai tukar, bukan perubahan portofolio bank sentral. Setelah penyesuaian nilai tukar, penurunannya hanya sedikit jadi 57,67%, menunjukkan bank sentral sebagian besar tetap mempertahankan cadangan US$ mereka.

Laporan baru Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) dari International Monetary Fund memberi wawasan penting untuk investor aset kripto yang mengikuti tren ekonomi makro. Data ini mengungkap bank sentral tetap menjaga alokasi dolar, bahkan di tengah pergerakan mata uang yang signifikan selama kuartal tersebut.

IMF: Bank Sentral Masih Dominan US$ meski Nilainya Turun

Dataset COFER IMF mencatat cadangan mata uang asing dari 149 ekonomi dalam US$. Di Q2 2025, pergerakan mata uang utama memberikan kesan seolah-olah ada perombakan besar di portofolio.

Berdasarkan laporan tersebut, Indeks DXY turun lebih dari 10% di paruh pertama 2025, penurunan terbesar sejak 1973.

US$ melemah 7,9% terhadap euro dan 9,6% terhadap franc Swiss di Q2. Pergerakan ini menurunkan share cadangan US$ dari 57,79% menjadi 56,32%. Tapi, penurunan ini akibat efek nilai tukar, bukan realokasi aktif dari portofolio.

Setelah penyesuaian nilai tukar konstan, share cadangan dolar hanya turun 0,12% ke 57,67%. Ini menunjukkan bank sentral hanya sedikit mengubah cadangan US$ mereka selama kuartal ini, menantang narasi dedolarisasi global.

Begitu juga dengan share cadangan euro yang terlihat naik ke 21,13%, meningkat 1,13 poin. Tapi, ini juga sepenuhnya dipicu oleh perubahan nilai tukar.

Pada nilai tukar konstan, share euro justru turun tipis 0,04 poin, menandakan bank sentral sebenarnya mengurangi kepemilikan euro.

Apa Artinya untuk Bitcoin dan Altcoin

Analisis ini memberikan sinyal makro yang tidak terlalu berpengaruh untuk Bitcoin dan aset digital lain yang dipasarkan sebagai lindung nilai terhadap lemahnya US$. Bank sentral tidak mendiversifikasi cadangan dari US$, walau nilainya turun signifikan.

Tren dedolarisasi sering disebut sebagai pendorong adopsi institusional aset kripto. namun, data COFER yang sudah disesuaikan nilai tukar, menunjukkan tren ini bisa menyesatkan jika lepas dari konteks yang tepat.

Poundsterling Inggris juga terlihat share-nya naik di Q2, tapi ini juga karena efek valuasi, menyembunyikan penurunan riil kepemilikan. Temuan ini menunjukkan kenapa investor perlu melihat lebih dalam dari angka utama untuk memahami perubahan likuiditas sebenarnya.

Studi IMF memberikan gambaran lebih akurat tentang kebijakan moneter ke investor saat pasar bergejolak. Dengan membedakan antara perubahan kebijakan sebenarnya dan perubahan nilai sementara, investor aset kripto bisa menilai tren makro global dengan lebih baik.

Strategi dan Prospek Cadangan Bank Sentral

Kepemilikan US$ tetap stabil di Q2 2025, memperlihatkan bank sentral masih mengandalkan mata uang tradisional walau alternatif digital mulai menarik perhatian. IMF menekankan, penyesuaian nilai tukar sangat penting untuk memahami perubahan cadangan secara akurat.

The US dollar’s share of global foreign reserves held steady in Q2, after adjustment for currency fluctuations. Exchange-rate effects drove nearly all the decline in the US currency’s share of reserves. Our blog has the details. https://t.co/XtaRfBIbqL pic.twitter.com/fXcUkRkg7U

— IMF (@IMFNews) December 21, 2025

Bank sentral memprioritaskan likuiditas, imbal hasil, dan risiko dalam mengelola cadangan. Posisi kuat dolar AS terkait dengan pasar yang dalam, utilitas transaksi tinggi, dan sistem yang sudah mapan. Semua hal ini masih jadi tantangan bagi aset digital.

Metodologi IMF mengungkap bagaimana perubahan nilai tukar dapat memengaruhi data cadangan. Di Q2, hampir semua perubahan yang dilaporkan pada mata uang utama berasal dari pergerakan valuasi, bukan rebalancing portofolio riil. Bank sentral tetap berhati-hati di tengah gejolak pasar.

Temuan ini membantu memperjelas tren global yang memengaruhi pasar aset kripto. Investor yang tertarik dengan dedolarisasi sebagai katalis Bitcoin sebaiknya memakai data yang telah disesuaikan nilai tukar.

Harga Bitcoin mungkin masih sering muncul di berita utama, tapi di kalangan analis dan strateg institusi, perhatian perlahan mulai beralih ke tempat lain.

Alih-alih memperdebatkan apakah Bitcoin bisa kembali naik dalam waktu dekat, para pengamat pasar kini makin banyak yang fokus pada pertanyaan lebih dalam: apakah sinyal-sinyal struktural yang dulu selalu jadi pedoman di siklus empat tahunan Bitcoin kini mulai retak.

Analis tidak lagi fokus ke harga Bitcoin karena sinyal permintaan mulai melemah secara perlahan

Pergeseran ini terjadi di tengah indikator permintaan yang melemah, arus masuk ke exchange yang meningkat, dan perbedaan pandangan di antara para analis yang makin dalam.

Di satu sisi, ada yang percaya Bitcoin sedang masuk fase koreksi setelah puncaknya. Sementara di sisi lain, ada juga yang berpendapat bahwa aset kripto pionir ini mungkin sudah mulai lepas dari siklus historisnya sepenuhnya.

Analis Daan Crypto Trades mengungkap bahwa perilaku harga Bitcoin baru-baru ini sudah menantang salah satu asumsi musiman paling bisa diandalkan dari Bitcoin.

“BTC Looking ahead, Q1 is generally a good quarter for Bitcoin, but so was Q4, and that one didn’t quite work out this time. No doubt 2025 has been a very messy year. Massive inflows and treasury accumulation, which were matched by big OG whales and 4-year cycle selling. Q1 2026 is where Bitcoin has a chance to show whether the 4-year cycle persists or not,” tulis Daan Crypto Trades .

Bukan berarti sudah terjadi breakdown, hasil di bawah ekspektasi ini justru mengindikasikan ada gesekan. Arus masuk ETF dan akumulasi korporasi kini terserap oleh distribusi dari holder jangka panjang, sehingga dampak arus masuk tersebut ke harga BTC jadi tidak sebesar dulu.

Ketegangan struktural ini juga terlihat pada data pasar spot AS. Menurut Kyle Doops, Coinbase Bitcoin premium, yang sering jadi acuan permintaan institusi AS, sudah cukup lama berada di zona negatif.

The Coinbase $BTC premium has stayed negative for 7 straight days, now around -0.04% per Coinglass.

That usually signals U.S. spot demand is lagging the rest of the market.

Less aggressive institutional buying, softer risk appetite, and capital staying cautious.

Not panic, but… pic.twitter.com/HtjNSorO1I

— Kyledoops (@kyledoops) December 21, 2025

Pesan yang terlihat bukan tanda menyerah, melainkan keraguan, artinya modal ada, tapi masih ragu untuk mengejar harga.

Arus Exchange Menunjukkan Distribusi, Bukan Akumulasi

Data on-chain menunjukkan perlunya interpretasi hati-hati, karena arus masuk Bitcoin ke exchange melonjak ke level yang secara historis kerap terjadi pada fase akhir siklus.

“Arus masuk exchange bulanan melonjak ke US$10,9 miliar, tertinggi sejak Mei 2021. Arus masuk besar ke exchange seperti ini menunjukkan tekanan jual yang meningkat, di mana investor memindahkan aset ke exchange untuk jual rugi, ambil untung, atau melindungi diri dari penurunan. Ini jadi bukti tambahan bahwa pasar sudah di puncak dan awal tren bear market di tengah volatilitas tinggi,” ujar analis Jacob King .

Secara historis, lonjakan seperti ini lebih sering terjadi di fase ambil untung, bukan di fase akumulasi awal.

Jika Sejarah Terulang, Siklus Masih Mengarah Turun meski Institusi Terbagi tapi Tetap Disiplin

Analis on-chain, Ali Charts, menilai meskipun ada perubahan struktural, simetri waktu Bitcoin masih sangat mencolok.

“Siklus harga Bitcoin punya pola yang sangat konsisten, baik dari segi waktu maupun besarnya. Secara historis, butuh sekitar 1.064 hari dari titik terendah sampai puncak pasar, dan sekitar 364 hari dari puncak ke titik terendah berikutnya,” tulis Ali Charts , sambil menjabarkan bagaimana siklus sebelumnya sangat mirip dengan pola itu.

Jika pola itu tetap berlaku, analis tersebut memperkirakan pasar mungkin sekarang memang sedang berada di fase koreksi. Koreksi historis menunjukkan biasanya ada ruang penurunan lebih lanjut sebelum bisa pulih lagi.

Di tingkat institusi, pandangan mulai berbeda-beda tapi belum sampai ke kekacauan. Kepala Strategi Kripto Fundstrat, Sean Farrell, mengakui ada tekanan jangka pendek, namun tetap optimistis untuk jangka panjang.

“Bitcoin sedang berada di ‘no man’s land’ valuasi,” komentar Farrell , menyebutkan faktor-faktor seperti penarikan ETF, penjualan dari holder awal, tekanan dari para miner, dan ketidakpastian ekonomi makro. Walaupun begitu, lanjut dia, “Saya tetap yakin Bitcoin dan Ethereum akan mencoba rekor baru sebelum akhir tahun ini, sehingga menutup siklus empat tahunan dengan bear market yang lebih pendek dan ringan.”

Debat Siklus Kini Menjadi Isu Institusional

Kemungkinan ini juga didukung Tom Lee, yang pendapatnya sering dikutip di diskusi kripto, bahwa Bitcoin akan segera memutus siklus 4 tahunannya.

TOM LEE THINKS BITCOIN WILL BREAK THE 4-YEAR CYCLE SOON! pic.twitter.com/eWZdW7xkgW

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) December 21, 2025

Jurrien Timmer dari Fidelity justru berpendapat sebaliknya. Menurut Lark Davis, Timmer meyakini puncak Bitcoin di bulan Oktober sudah mengakhiri fase harga dan waktu, dan “2026… adalah tahun penurunan,” dengan support terbentuk di kisaran US$65.000–US$75.000.

"The bear market is here and Bitcoin is heading down to $65,000"

That's what Fidelity's director of global macro Jurrien Timmer thinks.

While Jurrien is bullish on $BTC in the long term, he believes that Bitcoin is once again following its historical 4-year cycle driven by its… pic.twitter.com/KFPcBWTcZP

— Lark Davis (@LarkDavis) December 21, 2025

Semua perspektif ini menunjukkan mengapa para analis kini tak lagi terpaku hanya pada harga Bitcoin. Langkah berikutnya dari aset kripto pionir ini tidak hanya akan menentukan siapa yang bullish atau bearish, tapi juga menegaskan apakah kerangka siklus yang membentuk pasarnya selama lebih satu dekade terakhir masih relevan atau tidak.