Bitcoin is entering the final stretch of the year in a paradoxical position. Institutional adoption has never been stronger, yet price action remains hesitant, weighed down by thin liquidity, legacy holder distribution, and uneven global flows.

As markets look ahead to 2026, the question is less about whether Bitcoin’s monetary case still holds and more about when price catches up to it.

Thin Liquidity Driving Short-Term Volatility

Bitcoin is closing the year holding to familiar holiday dynamics rather than new fundamental catalysts.

“With holiday conditions continuing to suppress liquidity, pockets of elevated spot volatility are arising, but are also unsurprising,” QCP analysts said.

The elevated spot volatility has been fueled by discretionary buying rather than forced positioning resets, the analysts said. QCP added that demand appears to be coming from spot and perpetual markets operating in thin conditions.

Part of the buying pressure appears to have come from Strategy, which revealed in a Monday filing that it purchased 1,229 Bitcoin last week for $108.8 million at an average price of $88,568 per coin.

Options Markets Signal Fragile Upside

Following the major options expiry on Friday, Bitcoin perpetual funding on Deribit jumped from near-flat levels to above 30%, reflecting a potentially optimistic shift in dealer exposure.

QCP noted that traders who were previously long gamma ahead of expiry, helping keep prices range-bound, are now effectively short gamma to the upside. As prices rise, those participants are forced to buy spot Bitcoin or near-dated call options to hedge, reinforcing upside momentum.

Monday’s QCP Capital note points to aggressive buying in perpetuals and demand for Bitcoin call options. QCP said a sustained move above $94,000 could open the door to a more pronounced gamma-driven squeeze.

On the downside, near-term risk hedging has eased. Put skew has declined after traders chose not to roll a large December $85,000 put position.

In addition, roughly 50% of open interest was wiped out following Friday’s record expiry, leaving a significant amount of capital sidelined. According to the QCP Capital note, as positioning rebuilds, volatility is likely to return, but direction remains uncertain.

Asia Accumulates as the US Sells

That uncertainty is playing out unevenly across regions. Laser Digital described the past week as exhibiting the usual holiday lull.

However, what stood out was a clear divergence in time-zone performance. Bitcoin and Ethereum both fell more than 3% during US trading hours, only to recover during Asian sessions.

The Laser Digital investor note attributed the pattern largely to year-end tax harvesting in the US, noting that crypto has underperformed most global assets this year. The result has been steady American selling pressure offset by overseas accumulation.

Despite the lull in market activity, Messari analysts have highlighted how crypto is being integrated at the highest institutional levels. Stablecoin supply is at an all-time high, and regulators are openly discussing on-chain market infrastructure.

“Yet it has almost never felt worse,” Messari’s end-of-year analyst note said, pointing to a growing disconnect between sentiment and reality.

Why Bitcoin Lagged in 2025

Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold and equities in late 2025 has raised doubts about its “digital gold” narrative. Gold is up over 60% year-to-date, equities are at record highs, and Bitcoin remains slightly negative.

Messari argues the weakness is not structural, but supply-driven.

Older, large-balance holders have been net sellers throughout 2025, taking advantage of deeper institutional liquidity. Earlier this year, Galaxy Digital facilitated the sale of 80,000 BTC from a single Satoshi-era investor. On-chain data shows addresses holding between 1,000 and 100,000 BTC have distributed hundreds of thousands of coins year-to-date.

At the same time, two major demand engines slowed. Digital Asset Treasury inflows weakened in October, and spot Bitcoin ETFs, previously consistent buyers, have turned into net sellers.

The market has been forced to absorb rising supply just as steady inflows paused.

Messari does not see this as a permanent impairment. “When in doubt, zoom out,” the analysts said, emphasizing that Bitcoin has endured longer and deeper relative drawdowns in past cycles before reasserting itself.

The 2026 Bitcoin Price Framework

Looking ahead, Messari argues that Bitcoin should no longer be analyzed through a simple four-year cycle lens. As a macro asset, its performance will increasingly hinge on broader forces, monetary policy, institutional allocation, and sovereign balance sheet decisions.

Still, Messari analysts see clear price frameworks emerging in 2026:

• $86,000–$90,000 remains a critical structural support zone, reinforced by spot buying and reduced downside hedging demand.
• $94,000 is the key upside trigger. A sustained break above this level could activate gamma-driven buying and reprice 2026 call options higher.
• $100,000–$110,000 represents the next major psychological and structural resistance zone, where profit-taking from legacy holders may re-emerge.

Beyond that, a renewed institutional inflow cycle, via ETFs, corporate treasuries, or sovereign accumulation, would be required to sustain a move toward new all-time highs in 2026.

Long-Term Conviction Remains

Despite short-term frustration, Messari analysts remain firm on Bitcoin’s trajectory.

“Bitcoin has firmly established itself apart from all other cryptoassets and is undoubtedly the leading form of cryptomoney,” analysts wrote.

Bitcoin continues to outperform nearly every major token over multi-year horizons, driven by sustained institutional demand. Spot ETFs, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, have reshaped market structure, while nearly 200 companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets.

Looking into 2026, Messari’s confidence rests on first principles. In a world of rising government debt, financial repression, and declining real yields, Bitcoin’s predictable monetary policy, self-custody, and global portability remain unmatched.

The post Bitcoin Market Signals That Could Trigger a 2026 Breakout appeared first on BeInCrypto.

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has outlined its priorities for 2026, signaling a strong push to support growth, innovation, and technological adoption in the financial sector. In a letter to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the FCA emphasized plans to finalize rules for digital assets, advance UK-issued stablecoins, and strengthen the country’s digital finance infrastructure.

The letter details the regulator’s pro-growth agenda, including initiatives to:

• Oversee digital asset markets and provide clear guidance for crypto firms.
• Enable asset managers to tokenize funds and adopt faster, more efficient payment systems.
• Streamline authorizations for new and scaling firms, improving access to capital and supporting competition in payments and investment markets.

“This endorsement of stablecoins and digital finance infrastructure reflects a broader transition toward a more accessible, real-time, and interoperable financial system,” said Will Beeson, co-founder of UK challenger bank Allica and former head of Standard Chartered’s digital asset platform. “Clear regulatory guidance will help UK firms compete globally and support real-world crypto use cases, especially for small and medium-sized businesses.”

The FCA’s 2026 plans also include overseeing the launch of variable recurring payments, supporting SME lending through open finance, and advancing the tokenization of funds. These measures are part of a wider strategy to maintain the UK’s position as a leading financial hub while keeping pace with rapid technological change.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and Treasury officials have welcomed the FCA’s approach, which aims to provide clarity for firms while fostering innovation and maintaining market integrity.

Building on the FCA’s 2026 initiatives, the UK government is preparing to bring all cryptocurrency firms under the existing financial regulatory framework from October 2027, with legislation expected to be introduced in Parliament shortly.

According to Reuters, the bill will largely follow draft legislation published in April, which outlines rules covering crypto exchanges, custody providers, and stablecoin issuers. A Treasury spokesperson confirmed that the legislation is intended to extend the UK’s current financial services rules to the crypto sector, rather than creating an entirely new regulatory regime.

If passed, the legislation would represent a major milestone for the UK’s digital asset industry, providing long-awaited regulatory clarity for both domestic and international firms.

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UK Aligns With US-Style Regulatory Approach

By integrating crypto firms into its existing financial services framework, the UK is adopting an approach similar to the United States. This diverges from the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regime, which was designed specifically for the crypto industry and came into force earlier this year.

Under the proposed framework, crypto businesses will need to comply with standards already applied to traditional financial institutions, including governance, consumer protection, and market integrity rules.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized that the legislation aims to provide “clear rules of the road” for the industry while keeping “dodgy actors” out of the market.

Industry insiders have welcomed the clarity provided by both the FCA’s 2026 priorities and the upcoming 2027 legislation. However, experts warn that over-regulation could push innovative firms to other markets.

“These measures are positive steps to strengthen the UK’s position in global digital finance,” said Will Beeson. “But regulators must balance oversight with flexibility to avoid deterring growth in a fast-evolving market. Proportionality and pace will be key to ensuring firms can adapt without being forced into an ‘overnight upgrade.’”

The post How the UK Could Make Stablecoins a Core Part of Payments in 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts, warning that a key pillar of recent demand, corporate Bitcoin buying, is likely over.

The bank now believes future gains in Bitcoin will be driven by a single source: exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, a shift that could slow the pace of upside in the years ahead.

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Bitcoin’s Pullback ‘Painful but Normal’

In a new note, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, said the bank is pushing back its timeline for Bitcoin reaching $500,000 and lowering its year-end price targets for 2026 through 2029.

“While the recent Bitcoin price decline has been rapid, we think it is within expected bounds. However, further corporate buying of Bitcoin is unlikely, as valuations no longer support it. This leaves ETF buying, which may be slower than earlier expected, to drive price gains from here. We lower our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and push out our $500,000 forecast to 2030. Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze,” Kendrick said.

Bitcoin’s recent price action has unsettled investors, but Standard Chartered argues the sell-off fits historical patterns rather than signalling a structural downturn.

Kendrick noted that Bitcoin has fallen around 36% from its all-time high on October 6, a decline comparable to other drawdowns seen since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

“The recent price action in Bitcoin (BTC) has been challenging, but the decline, while rapid, falls within ‘normal’ expectations,” Kendrick stated, adding that similar pullbacks have occurred over the past two years.

The timing of the peak has fuelled renewed fears of a crypto winter, with Bitcoin topping roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, a pattern seen in past cycles.

“The timing of the recent losses, the 6 October high was reached 18 months after the April 2024 ‘halving’ of Bitcoin supply, has fed the narrative of a ‘crypto winter’,” Kendrick added.

However, Standard Chartered rejects the idea that the traditional halving-driven cycle still dominates Bitcoin’s price behaviour.

“We do not share the view that the halving cycle is still valid. Rather, we think longer-term ETF buyers are a much more important price driver,” he noted.

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Corporate Bitcoin Buying Losing Steam

The more concerning signal, according to Standard Chartered, is the apparent end of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by listed digital asset treasury companies (DATs).

Kendrick said valuations no longer justify further expansion by these firms, which have played an increasingly visible role in driving demand over the past year.

“That said, price action has forced us to recalibrate our Bitcoin price forecasts. Specifically, we think buying by Bitcoin digital asset treasury companies (DATs) is likely over, as valuations, as measured by mNAVs, the commonly used valuation metric for these companies, no longer support further Bitcoin DAT expansion,” he mentioned

While the bank does not expect widespread selling from these companies, it also does not expect them to underpin prices going forward.

“We expect a consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support,” Kendrick said.

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ETF Inflows Will Be A Key Support

With corporate Bitcoin buying fading, Kendrick believes the next phase of Bitcoin’s price trajectory depends almost entirely on ETFs.

“As a result, we think that future Bitcoin price increases will effectively be driven by one leg only, ETF buying,” he remarked.

That shift has prompted Standard Chartered to delay its most bullish projections.

“We therefore lower our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and expect Bitcoin to reach our long-term price forecast of $500,000 only in 2030 (versus 2028 previously),” Kendrick highlighted.

Still, the bank maintains its long-term optimism, just on a longer timeline.

“We still think this target is attainable, as portfolio optimisation between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that global portfolios are underweight Bitcoin. Investment access and decision-making by investment committees take time, but we expect them to drive large Bitcoin gains eventually,” he added.

The post Standard Chartered Sounds Alarm: A Major Bitcoin Buyer Has Disappeared appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been one of the biggest storylines since their launch last year. With Bitcoin hitting new highs in 2025 and ETF assets surging, many assume big Wall Street players are finally “long Bitcoin.”

But not so fast, says Arthur Hayes.

In an email sent Monday, the BitMEX co-founder argues that much of the institutional activity inside BlackRock’s IBIT, still the largest Bitcoin ETF by assets, has nothing to do with long-term conviction. Instead, he says, the biggest players are running a straightforward arbitrage trade.

“They Are Not Long Bitcoin”

Hayes points to the ETF’s largest holders, hedge funds and bank trading desks, including firms like Goldman Sachs, and argues they are primarily engaged in what’s known as a basis trade.

Here’s how it works:

• Funds buy IBIT ETF shares
• Simultaneously short CME Bitcoin futures
• Capture the yield difference between the ETF and futures (the basis)
• Use the ETF shares as collateral for the futures short

According to Hayes:

“They are not long Bitcoin. They only play in our sandbox for a few extra points over Fed Funds.”

This has become even more common in 2025 as US rates have fallen, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times this year, reducing yields across traditional markets and making arbitrage opportunities more attractive.

Why ETF Inflows Can Be Misleading

When the basis is high enough, hedge funds rush into the trade, creating the appearance of large institutional inflows.
When the basis compresses, as it has several times throughout 2025, those same institutions unwind the trade, causing sharp ETF outflows.

Hayes says this dynamic creates a dangerous illusion, and it plays out like this:

When the basis spikes → ETF inflows surge → “Institutions are buying Bitcoin!”

When the basis collapses → ETF outflows spike → “Institutions are dumping Bitcoin!”

Retail investors often misinterpret these flows, which can amplify market volatility.

What Changed in 2025

Earlier this year, Bitcoin rose steadily even as dollar liquidity tightened under the incoming Trump administration and US Treasury issuance surged. ETF inflows and buying from digital asset trusts helped offset the liquidity drag.

But Hayes argues that that phase may be over.

• Several digital asset trusts (DATs) have traded below NAV this autumn.
• The ETF basis trade has become less attractive as futures spreads narrowed.
• Hedge funds have reduced their positions, triggering noticeable outflows across the ETF complex for weeks at a time.

With those artificial demand drivers fading, Hayes says Bitcoin finally has to respond to the underlying macro environment again.

“Bitcoin Must Fall” — Hayes on Short-Term Pressure

According to Hayes:

“Bitcoin must fall to reflect the current short-term worry that dollar liquidity will contract or not grow as fast as the politicians promised.”

In other words:
ETF flows pushed Bitcoin up when liquidity didn’t justify it.
Now those flows are gone, and liquidity still matters. His message for late 2025 is blunt:

• Most ETF inflows were arbitrage, not long-term institutional belief.
• BlackRock’s biggest ‘holders’ aren’t long Bitcoin, they’re long the basis.
• The unwind of those trades is now affecting Bitcoin’s price.

For retail investors, the lesson is simple:
ETF flows tell you more about the futures curve than institutional conviction.

The post Think BlackRock Is Bullish on Bitcoin? Arthur Hayes Says They’re Not, Here’s Why appeared first on BeInCrypto.