The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19. It marks its highest level in nearly 30 years, reinforcing the country’s gradual exit from ultra-easy monetary policy.

Yet despite the historic shift and warnings of a global liquidity squeeze, Bitcoin showed little reaction, rising just under 1% and holding in the $87,000 range.

BOJ Just Raised Interest Rates Another 25 Basis Points – Why Did Bitcoin Hold Steady?

The muted response stands in contrast to history. Previous BOJ tightening cycles have often coincided with sharp sell-offs in crypto markets, particularly as yen carry trades unwind and global liquidity tightens.

THE BANK OF JAPAN MIGHT BE BITCOIN’S BIGGEST ENEMY

Japan holds the most US debt.
Every time they hike, Bitcoin bleeds:

March 2024: -23%
July 2024: -30%
Jan 2025: -31%

Next hike: Dec 19
Next move: loading…

If the pattern repeats, $70K is in play. pic.twitter.com/R5916R702I

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) December 14, 2025

This time, however, traders appeared unfazed, suggesting the move had been fully priced in well ahead of the announcement. Market participants had largely anticipated the decision.

Japan’s rate increase represents a symbolic break from decades of near-zero interest rates that made the yen a cornerstone of global funding markets. Cheap yen borrowing fueled leverage across equities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies.

As Japanese yieds rise and narrow the gap with global rates, those trades become less attractive, potentially forcing investors to unwind risk positions. Still, Bitcoin’s calm reaction suggests markets were prepared.

According to analysts, however, the focus was never the hike itself, but what comes next.

“Markets are pricing in a near-certain 25 basis point hike, marking the highest Japanese policy rate in about 30 years. While the hike itself is largely anticipated, the real focus is on Governor Ueda’s forward guidance during the press conference—signals of future hikes could amplify effects,” wrote analyst Marty Party.

That forward guidance may prove crucial. The BOJ has signaled it remains prepared to raise rates further, potentially to 1% or higher by late 2026, depending on wage growth and sustained inflation.

That outlook keeps pressure on risk assets, even if the initial move failed to trigger volatility.

Bitcoin Holds Firm as Altcoins Face a Prolonged Liquidity Squeeze

Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s resilience could be a bullish sign. Blueblock pointed to historical patterns, noting the divergence from past reactions.

“The BOJ just hiked rates to 0.75%, ending decades of ultra-loose policy and narrowing the gap with global yields. History shows that every prior tightening has triggered 20–30% Bitcoin drops as yen carry trades unwind and liquidity tightens. Yet with the hike fully priced in and BTC holding around $85k–$87k, this could be the dip buyers have been waiting for,” the analyst wrote.

However, not all corners of the crypto market are expected to fare as well. Altcoins, which are typically more sensitive to shifts in liquidity, remain vulnerable if Japanese tightening accelerates.

The prospect of higher rates through 2026 suggests a prolonged headwind rather than a one-off shock.

“BOJ signals it is ready to hike further, potentially 1% or higher by late 2026, depending on wage growth and sustained inflation. NO MERCY FOR ALTCOINS,” commented Money Ape.

Bitcoin’s stability reflects a market that had ample time to prepare for the BOJ’s decision. Whether that resilience holds will depend less on the December hike itself and more on how aggressively Japan continues its path of tightening. It will also hinge on how global liquidity adapts to the end of one of its longest-running monetary backstops.

The post BOJ Raises Interest Rates to 0.75%, But Bitcoin Stands Unshaken—Is the Crypto Calm a Warning or Opportunity? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yields surged to 1.98% in December 2025, the highest level since the 1990s. It comes as markets braced for the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy meeting on December 19.

The move has triggered a global rally in precious metals, with gold and silver surging 135% and 175%, respectively, since early 2023. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is under pressure as forced selling intensifies across Asian exchanges, highlighting a divergence in market reactions to Japan’s rate shift.

Japan’s Bond Yields Hit 1.98%

For decades, Japan maintained near-zero interest rates, anchoring global liquidity through the yen carry trade.

Investors borrowed yen at a low rate to fund higher-yielding assets worldwide, effectively exporting ultra-low interest rates.

An expected 25-basis-point hike, raising the rate to 0.75%, may appear modest in absolute terms, but the pace of change matters more than the level.

“Carry trade at risk: Nobody knows when the real consequences will materialize, but this continued shift will likely drain liquidity from markets, potentially causing a ripple effect through margin calls and other forced deleveraging,” warned Guilherme Tavares, CEO at i3 Invest.

Analysts see the BOJ move as more than a domestic adjustment.

“When Japan’s yields move, global capital pays attention. Gold and silver aren’t reacting to inflation headlines. They’re pricing sovereign balance sheet risk. Japan isn’t a sideshow anymore. It’s the fulcrum,” noted Simon Hou-Vangsaae Reseke.

Gold and Silver Prices Surge Amid Rising Sovereign Risk

Precious metals have been closely tracking Japanese yields. According to Global Market Investor, gold and silver are moving almost perfectly in line with Japanese government bond yields. This suggests that precious metals are being used as a primary hedge against the rising cost of government debt.

“It’s not the yield itself, it’s what the move represents — rising sovereign risk, tighter global liquidity, and uncertainty about currency credibility. Gold responds as protection, and silver follows with more volatility,” commented analyst EndGame Macro.

The silver market is showing signs of speculative mania. The China Silver Futures Fund recently traded 12% above the physical metal it tracks, indicating that demand for leveraged exposure is outpacing the underlying asset.

⚠️ Silver market mania is an UNDERSTATEMENT:

The China Silver Futures Fund was trading +12% above the actual value of the silver it is supposed to track

Investors are buying the fund much faster than the silver behind is rising, a sign of SPECULATION. 👇https://t.co/8kAngXV9CH

— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December 17, 2025

Investors are increasingly treating gold and silver as hedges against broader macro risks, rather than just inflation.

Bitcoin Faces Pressure as Carry Trades Unwind

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price is feeling the strain of tightening yen liquidity.

“Asia-based exchanges have seen persistent spot selling. Miner reserves are falling — forced selling, not choice…Long-term Asian holders appear to be distributing…Price stays heavy until forced supply is cleared,” wrote CryptoRus, citing XWIN Research Japan.

US institutions continue buying, with the Coinbase Premium positive, but forced liquidations in Asia and an 8% drop in Bitcoin hashrate have added downward pressure.

Past BOJ rate shifts have coincided with significant BTC declines, and traders are watching closely for further downside toward $70,000.

THE BANK OF JAPAN MIGHT BE BITCOIN’S BIGGEST ENEMY

Japan holds the most US debt.
Every time they hike, Bitcoin bleeds:

March 2024: -23%
July 2024: -30%
Jan 2025: -31%

Next hike: Dec 19
Next move: loading…

If the pattern repeats, $70K is in play. pic.twitter.com/R5916R702I

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) December 14, 2025

The contrasting reactions of precious metals and Bitcoin highlight differences in risk positioning. Gold and silver are attracting safe-haven flows amid growing sovereign risk, while Bitcoin faces liquidation-driven price pressure.

Analysts note that future Fed rate cuts may offset the BOJ’s impacts, but the speed of the policy change is crucial.

The post Japan’s Bond Yields Hit 1.98%: BOJ Rate Shift Impacts Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin traders often focus on the US Federal Reserve. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) can be just as important for crypto markets.

That’s because Japan plays a unique role in global liquidity. When that liquidity tightens, Bitcoin often drops hard.

The ‘Cheap Yen’ is Bitcoin’s Hidden Liquidity Engine

For decades, Japan maintained near-zero or negative interest rates. That made the yen one of the cheapest currencies in the world to borrow.

This gave rise to the yen carry trade.

The 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan is about to do a rate hike on Friday the 19th, creating massive fear surrounding the Yen carry trade.

Bitcoin dumped hard the last time they hiked rates:

But why is this exactly? Let’s break it down 👇

What is the Yen Carry Trade?

For decades, the Yen has… pic.twitter.com/YjxzOctjnx

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) December 14, 2025

Large institutions — including hedge funds, banks, asset managers, and proprietary trading desks — borrow yen through Japanese banks, FX swap markets, and short-term funding channels.

They then convert that yen into dollars or euros. The capital flows into higher-yielding assets.

Those assets include equities, credit, emerging markets, and increasingly, crypto. Bitcoin benefits when this funding stays cheap and abundant.

Bitcoin is especially attractive because it trades 24/7 and offers high volatility. For leveraged funds, it becomes a liquid way to express risk-on positioning.

A BoJ rate hike disrupts that system.

🚨 JAPAN WILL CRASH BITCOIN IN 5 DAYS!!!

People are seriously underestimating what Japan is about to do to Bitcoin.

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates again on Dec 19.

That might not sound like a big deal… until you remember one thing:

Japan is the largest holder… pic.twitter.com/0a9Aimfn88

— NoLimit (@NoLimitGains) December 14, 2025

Why a Small BoJ Rate Hike Can Have an Outsized Impact

On paper, the expected BoJ move looks modest.

Markets are pricing a hike of roughly 25 basis points, taking Japan’s policy rate toward 0.75%. That is still far below US or European rates.

But the size of the hike is not the real issue.

Japan spent decades anchored near zero. Even a small increase represents a structural shift in funding conditions.

More importantly, it changes expectations.

If markets believe Japan is entering a multi-step tightening cycle, traders do not wait. They cut exposure early.

That anticipation alone can trigger selling across global risk assets. Bitcoin feels the impact quickly because it trades continuously and reacts faster than stocks or bonds.

How the BoJ Tightening Can Trigger Bitcoin Liquidations

Bitcoin’s sharpest drops rarely come from spot selling alone. They come from leverage.

A hawkish BoJ move can strengthen the yen and lift global yields. That pressures risk assets simultaneously.

Bitcoin then falls through key technical levels. That matters because crypto markets rely heavily on perpetual futures and margin.

As price drops, leveraged long positions hit liquidation thresholds. Exchanges automatically sell collateral to cover losses.

Bank of Japan is set to hike interest rates by 25bps on December 19

The last 3 times BoJ hiked rates, Bitcoin dumped by over 20%

March 2024 → -27%
July 2024 → -30%
January 2025 → -31%

We already saw a 7% dump last week as investors tried to front-run the dump.

However,… pic.twitter.com/ex77EzHBMh

— Lark Davis (@LarkDavis) December 15, 2025

That forced selling pushes Bitcoin lower again. It triggers more liquidations in a cascading loop.

This is why macro events can look like crypto-specific crashes. The initial shock comes from rates and FX.

The second wave comes from crypto’s leverage structure.

What Traders Watch Around BoJ Decisions

BoJ risk builds before the announcement. Traders watch for early warning signs:

• Yen strength, which signals carry trades are unwinding
  
• Rising bond yields, which tighten financial conditions
  
• Falling funding rates or open interest, which show leverage exiting
  
• Key Bitcoin support breaks, which can trigger liquidations
  

The tone of BoJ guidance also matters. A hike with dovish messaging can calm markets.

A hawkish signal can extend selling pressure.

In short, the Bank of Japan matters because it controls a major source of global liquidity. When that liquidity tightens, Bitcoin often pays the price first.

The post Why the Bank of Japan Is So Critical for Bitcoin appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Markets are bracing for a potentially pivotal week for Bitcoin as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) heads into its December 18–19 policy meeting. Expectations point to a near-certain rate hike.

Prediction markets and macro analysts alike are converging on the same conclusion: Japan is poised to raise rates by 25 basis points. Such a move could reverberate far beyond its domestic bond market and into global risk assets, especially Bitcoin.

Bank of Japan Rate Hike Puts Bitcoin’s Liquidity Sensitivity Back in Focus

Polymarket is currently assigning a 98% probability of a BOJ hike, with a measly 2% wagering that policymakers will hold interest rates steady.

The general sentiment among crypto analysts is that this is not good for Bitcoin, with the pioneer crypto already trading below the $90,000 psychological level.

Polymarket is pricing in a 🇯🇵 BOJ rate hike with 98% certainty right now.

This is not good… 👀 pic.twitter.com/Huace8iTBk

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) December 14, 2025

If implemented, the move would take Japan’s policy rate to 75 basis points, a level not seen in nearly two decades. While modest by global standards, the shift is significant because Japan has long been the world’s primary source of inexpensive leverage.

For decades, institutions borrowed yen at ultra-low rates and deployed that capital into global equities, bonds, and crypto, a strategy known as the yen carry trade. That trade is now under threat.

“For decades, the Yen has been the #1 currency people would borrow & convert into other currencies & assets… That carry trade is diminishing now, as Japanese bond yields are rising rapidly,” wrote analyst Mister Crypto.

If yields continue to climb, leveraged positions funded in yen may be unwound, forcing investors to sell risk assets to repay debt.

Liquidity Fears Grow Amid Bitcoin’s BOJ Track Record

The historical backdrop is fueling anxiety in crypto markets. Bitcoin is currently trading at $88,956, down 1.16% in the last 24 hours.

However, traders are focused less on the current price and more on what has happened after previous BOJ hikes.

• In March 2024, the price of Bitcoin fell by roughly 23%.
• In July 2024, it dropped around 25%.
•  Following the January 2025 hike, BTC slid more than 30%.

Against this backdrop, several traders see a troubling pattern, urging investors to brace for volatility this week.

“Every time Japan hikes rates, Bitcoin dumps 20–25%. Next week, they will hike rates to 75 bps again. If the pattern holds, BTC will dump below $70,000 on December 19. Position accordingly,” cautioned analyst 0xNobler.

This week, therefore, analysts see the Bank of Japan as the biggest threat to the Bitcoin price, with a play to $70,000 now in the cards.

THE BANK OF JAPAN MIGHT BE BITCOIN’S BIGGEST ENEMY

Japan holds the most US debt.
Every time they hike, Bitcoin bleeds:

March 2024: -23%
July 2024: -30%
Jan 2025: -31%

Next hike: Dec 19
Next move: loading…

If the pattern repeats, $70K is in play. pic.twitter.com/R5916R702I

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) December 14, 2025

Similar projections have been echoed across crypto-focused accounts, with repeated references to a potential drop below $70,000 if history rhymes. Such a move would constitute a 20% drop below current levels.

Regime Shift or Liquidity Shock? Why Traders Are Split on the BOJ–Fed Policy Mix

Yet not everyone agrees that a BOJ hike spells inevitable downside. A competing macro narrative argues that Japan’s tightening, when paired with US Federal Reserve rate cuts, could ultimately be bullish for the crypto market.

Macro analyst Quantum Ascend framed the situation as a regime shift rather than a liquidity shock.

Japan raising rates has a lot of people worried about the potential impact on the market. 🚨

Couple that with the Fed cutting rates, and it's seemingly a mixed picture.

But it's NOT.

This is EXTREMELY BULLISH for crypto‼️

Here's why ⬇️

— Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend) December 13, 2025

According to this view, Fed cuts would inject dollar liquidity and weaken the USD, while gradual BOJ hikes would strengthen the yen without meaningfully destroying global liquidity.

The result, Quantum Ascend argues, is capital rotation into risk assets with asymmetric upside, crypto’s “sweet spot.”

Still, near-term conditions remain fragile. The Great Martis cautioned that bond markets are already forcing the BOJ’s hand.

“This could trigger the carry trade unwind and cause havoc in equities,” the analyst warned.

The analyst also pointed to broadening tops in major stock indices and globally rising yields as signs of mounting stress.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price action reflects the uncertainty. The pioneer crypto’s price has been largely flat through December, marking what analysts call a very choppy period into the end of the year.

Specifically, analyst Daan Crypto Trades cites low liquidity and limited conviction ahead of year-end holidays.

With equities flashing topping signals, yields breaking higher, and Bitcoin historically sensitive to Japan-driven liquidity shifts, the BOJ’s decision is shaping up to be one of the most consequential macro catalysts of the year.

Whether it triggers another sharp drawdown or sets the stage for a post-volatility crypto rally may depend less on the hike itself and more on how global liquidity responds in the weeks that follow.

The post Bank of Japan Rate Hike Could Trigger 20-30% Bitcoin Decline as Markets Price 98% Probability appeared first on BeInCrypto.