Bitcoin has dropped below $100,000 for the second time in a week, losing 12% in a month. The overall crypto market has lost over $700 billion in the past month, as the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to ‘extreme fear’. 

So, do all of these market indicators signal a bear market? Let’s analyze the technical and historical data. 

Sentiment Signals Are at Bear-Market Levels

The Fear & Greed Index at 10 reflects extreme fear comparable to early 2022 and June 2022, both confirmed bear-market phases.

• Yesterday: 16
  
• Last week: 20
  
• Last month: 28
  

The trend shows accelerating fear, not stabilizing sentiment. Bear runs usually begin with this kind of persistent fear compression.

However, sentiment alone does not confirm a bear market — it only signals capitulation or exhaustion.

Bitcoin Has Broken Its Most Important Bull-Market Support

The 365-day moving average is the long-term structural pivot.

Current situation:

• The 365-day MA is near $102,000.
  
• Bitcoin is trading below it.
  
• The breakdown mirrors December 2021, when price lost the same MA and the bear market started.
  

Historically:

Cycle	MA Lost?	Outcome
2018	Yes	Full bear market
2021	Yes	Full bear market
2025	Yes (now)	Bear-phase risk rising

Failing to reclaim this level quickly often confirms a cycle regime shift. This is one of the strongest technical arguments for a bear-market transition.

Bitcoin "Death Cross" Just Flashed!

The Death Cross (An ironically BULLISH indicator) has just triggered, EXACTLY timed with BTC tagging the lower boundary of the megaphone pattern it's in.

Several weeks ago we predicted this would happen around mid-November. Well, here we are.… https://t.co/quqAs4qhXn pic.twitter.com/xBDjoMFnrL

— 𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) November 15, 2025

On-Chain Cost Basis Shows Early Capitulation, Not Distribution Top

The 6–12 month UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) realized price now sits around $94,600. Bitcoin price currently stands slightly above this level.

This matters because:

• These holders bought during the ETF rally.
  
• They represent “bull-cycle conviction buyers.”
  
• When their position enters loss, market structure weakens.
  

In 2021, Bitcoin price falling below this cohort’s cost basis was one of the final signals before the extended downtrend. This is the first time that cost-basis stress has reappeared since 2022.

This supports the idea of a mid-cycle break, not yet a full macro bear trend.

BULL MARKETS DON’T END LIKE THIS!

I’ve been around for multiple bull/bear markets,
2001 dotcom, 2008 housing, 2017 crypto , 2021 crypto etc etc.

When bull markets end , either something breaks or belief in the asset/ market crumbles.

In 2001, people really doubted the…

— Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) November 15, 2025

RSI Shows Oversold Conditions, Typical of Mid-Cycle Crashes

Market-wide RSI readings:

• Average crypto RSI: 43.09
  
• BTC RSI is among the lowest in large caps
  
• Only 2.5% of assets are overbought
  
• Most are in oversold territory
  

This resembles May–July 2021, August 2023, and August 2024. Each was a mid-cycle correction, not an end-of-cycle bear. When RSI stays deeply oversold for weeks, bearish momentum confirms.

Right now, RSI shows stress but not yet trend reversal.

MACD Shows Strong Divergence Across the Market

The average normalized MACD is currently 0.02. This indicates weak bullish momentum returning. Also, 58% of the market assets have positive momentum. 

Bitcoin, however, sits deep in the negative zone while altcoins are mixed.

When BTC has negative MACD but the market still has 50%+ positive momentum, the market is in a transition phase rather than a full bear trend.

In full bear markets, 90%+ of assets show negative MACD simultaneously. Right now, that is not the case.

So, Is This a Bear Market?

The crypto market is not in a confirmed bear market — it is in a mid-cycle breakdown with a rising probability of becoming a bear market if two conditions are met.

These are the three conditions that would confirm a bear run:

1. Bitcoin remains below the 365-day MA for 4–6 weeks. This triggered every bear market in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
2. Long-term holders continue heavy distribution. If LTH (long-term holder) selling exceeds 1M BTC over 60 days, the cycle top is in.
3. MACD flips fully negative across the entire market. We are not there yet.

TBH this is the easiest bear market I've ever seen.

Seems like most of you have forgotten what 2022 was like. Luna collapsing, then 3AC, then FTX, then Genesis, BlockFi, Axie, NFTs–pretty much everything felt like a house of cards.

And then after all that stuff collapsed, the… https://t.co/DUwOZCBG3K

— Haseeb ＞|＜ (@hosseeb) November 14, 2025

Overall, crypto is not yet in a bear market, but the current breakdown puts the market in a high-risk zone where a bear market could form if Bitcoin fails to reclaim long-term support soon.

The post Is Crypto in a Bear Market Now? A Full Market Structure Assessment  appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Aster moved to calm its community after a miscommunication on CoinMarketCap (CMC) led users to believe the project had quietly changed its token unlock schedule. 

The team said the tokenomics remain unchanged and blamed an update on CMC for creating the confusion.

ASTER Token Unlock Confusion

The clarification came hours after Aster community members noticed major upcoming unlocks listed on CMC — including one for December 2025 and two massive releases scheduled for 2035. 

This contradicts earlier statements from the exchange about delaying 2025 unlocks to mid-2026.

A recent update to the tokenomics of ASTER on CoinMarketCap (CMC) has caused confusion within the community. This confusion stemmed from a miscommunication, and we sincerely apologize for the inconvenience caused. We want to clarify that the ASTER tokenomics remain unchanged.…

— Aster (@Aster_DEX) November 15, 2025

The uncertainty started when updated CMC data showed 200 million ASTER scheduled to unlock on December 15, 2025, followed by 3.86 billion ASTER and 1.6 billion ASTER unlocks in 2035. 

Those figures implied that 75% of the token supply was still locked, with 24% currently circulating.

Aster said the CMC update was meant to correct circulating supply information and clarify how unused ecosystem tokens were being treated. 

The team said the tokens that unlock monthly under the ecosystem allocation have never entered circulation and have remained untouched in a locked address since TGE.

To avoid further confusion, Aster will now transfer these unlocked-but-unused tokens to a public, dedicated unlock address to separate them from operational wallets. 

The team said it has no plans to spend from this address.

Why This Matters for ASTER Holders

The episode highlights a recurring issue in crypto markets. Inconsistent or unclear circulating supply data can influence price action, investor expectations, and perceived dilution risk.

Aster’s circulating supply sits around 2.017 billion ASTER, with 6.06 billion still locked. Market cap is roughly $2.28 billion, while the fully diluted value exceeds $9 billion.

A sudden interpretation that large unlocks were imminent may have fueled speculation about dilution, especially as the project recently saw heavy trading volume and rising volatility.

Despite the confusion, ASTER traded higher on the day, moving around $1.14, up about 8% in 24 hours. The price has fluctuated between $1.02–$1.15, stabilizing after an early-morning sell-off.

The post Aster Clarifies Tokenomics After Confusion Over Token Unlock Delays appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin jatuh di bawah US$100.000 untuk kedua kalinya dalam seminggu, kehilangan 12% dalam sebulan. Pasar kripto secara keseluruhan telah kehilangan lebih dari US$700 miliar dalam sebulan terakhir, sementara Fear and Greed Index turun ke ‘extreme fear’.

Apakah semua indikator pasar ini menandakan bear market? Mari kita analisis data teknikal dan historisnya.

Sinyal Sentimen Ada di Level Pasar Bear

Fear & Greed Index pada 10 mencerminkan ketakutan ekstrem yang sebanding dengan awal tahun 2022 dan Juni 2022, keduanya mengonfirmasi fase bear-market.

• Kemarin: 16
  
• Minggu lalu: 20
  
• Bulan lalu: 28
  

Tren ini menunjukkan ketakutan yang semakin cepat, bukan sentimen yang stabil. Bear market biasanya dimulai dengan jenis tekanan ketakutan yang terus-menerus seperti ini.

Namun, sentimen saja tidak mengonfirmasi bear market — ini hanya menandakan kapitulasi atau kelelahan.

Bitcoin Telah Breakout Dari Support Reli Paling Penting

Moving average 365-hari adalah titik pivot struktural jangka panjang.

Saat ini:

• MA 365-hari berada di dekat US$102.000.
  
• Bitcoin diperdagangkan di bawahnya.
  
• Pecahannya mencerminkan Desember 2021, ketika harga kehilangan MA yang sama dan bear market dimulai.
  

Secara historis:

Siklus	MA Hilang?	Hasil
2018	Ya	Bear market penuh
2021	Ya	Bear market penuh
2025	Ya (sekarang)	Risiko fase bear meningkat

Gagal merebut kembali level ini dengan cepat sering mengonfirmasi pergeseran rezim siklus. Ini adalah salah satu argumen teknis terkuat untuk transisi bear-market.

Bitcoin "Death Cross" Just Flashed!

The Death Cross (An ironically BULLISH indicator) has just triggered, EXACTLY timed with BTC tagging the lower boundary of the megaphone pattern it's in.

Several weeks ago we predicted this would happen around mid-November. Well, here we are.… https://t.co/quqAs4qhXn pic.twitter.com/xBDjoMFnrL

— 𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) November 15, 2025

Berdasarkan On-Chain, Ada Kapitulasi Dini, Bukan Puncak Distribusi

Harga realisasi UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) 6–12 bulan sekarang berada sekitar US$94.600. Harga Bitcoin saat ini sedikit di atas level ini.

Ini penting karena:

• Holder ini membeli saat reli ETF.
  
• Mereka mewakili “pembeli yakin siklus bullish.”
  
• Ketika posisi mereka mengalami kerugian, struktur pasar melemah.
  

Pada 2021, harga Bitcoin jatuh di bawah basis biaya kelompok ini adalah salah satu sinyal terakhir sebelum tren turun yang diperpanjang. Ini adalah pertama kalinya tekanan basis biaya muncul kembali sejak 2022.

Ini mendukung ide break tengah siklus, belum merupakan tren bear makro penuh.

BULL MARKETS DON’T END LIKE THIS!

I’ve been around for multiple bull/bear markets,
2001 dotcom, 2008 housing, 2017 crypto , 2021 crypto etc etc.

When bull markets end , either something breaks or belief in the asset/ market crumbles.

In 2001, people really doubted the…

— Ran Neuner (@cryptomanran) November 15, 2025

RSI Menunjukkan Kondisi Oversold, Tipikal dari Crash di Pertengahan Siklus

Bacaan RSI di seluruh pasar:

• Rata-rata RSI kripto: 43,09
  
• RSI BTC termasuk yang terendah di kapitalisasi besar
  
• Hanya 2,5% aset yang overbought
  
• Kebanyakan berada di wilayah oversold
  

Ini mirip dengan Mei–Juli 2021, Agustus 2023, dan Agustus 2024. Masing-masing adalah koreksi tengah siklus, bukan akhir dari bear siklus. Ketika RSI tetap sangat oversold selama beberapa minggu, momentum bearish mengonfirmasi.

Saat ini, RSI menunjukkan tekanan tapi belum pembalikan tren.

MACD Menunjukkan Divergensi Kuat di Pasar

Rata-rata MACD yang dinormalisasi saat ini adalah 0,02. Ini menunjukkan momentum bullish lemah kembali. Selain itu, 58% dari aset pasar memiliki momentum positif.

Namun, Bitcoin berada jauh di zona negatif sementara altcoin bervariasi.

Ketika BTC memiliki MACD negatif tapi pasar tetap memiliki momentum positif lebih dari 50%, pasar berada dalam fase transisi daripada tren bearish penuh.

Dalam pasar bearish penuh, 90%+ dari aset menunjukkan MACD negatif secara bersamaan. Saat ini, hal itu tidak terjadi.

Jadi, Apakah Ini Pasar Bear?

Pasar kripto belum dalam pasar bear yang dikonfirmasi — ini adalah penurunan di tengah siklus dengan kemungkinan meningkat menjadi pasar bear jika dua syarat terpenuhi.

Inilah tiga syarat yang akan mengonfirmasi terjadinya pasar bear:

1. Bitcoin tetap di bawah MA 365 hari selama 4–6 minggu. Ini memicu setiap pasar bear pada tahun 2014, 2018, dan 2022.
2. Holder jangka panjang terus melakukan distribusi besar-besaran. Jika penjualan LTH (holder jangka panjang) melebihi 1 juta BTC dalam 60 hari, puncak siklus tercapai.
3. MACD berbalik sepenuhnya negatif di seluruh pasar. Kita belum sampai di sana.

TBH this is the easiest bear market I've ever seen.

Seems like most of you have forgotten what 2022 was like. Luna collapsing, then 3AC, then FTX, then Genesis, BlockFi, Axie, NFTs–pretty much everything felt like a house of cards.

And then after all that stuff collapsed, the… https://t.co/DUwOZCBG3K

— Haseeb ＞|＜ (@hosseeb) November 14, 2025

Secara keseluruhan, kripto belum berada dalam pasar bear, namun penurunan saat ini menempatkan pasar pada zona berisiko tinggi di mana pasar bear dapat terbentuk jika Bitcoin gagal memulihkan dukungan jangka panjang segera.

Bitcoin fell to $94,000 on Friday, driving concerns of further liquidation and heading towards a yearly low of $76,000. BTC faces growing downside pressure after dropping under its 365-day moving average, a level that has defined the current bull cycle’s support. 

The breakdown has revived concerns of a larger correction, especially as key on-chain cost-basis levels show early signs of stress.

Will Bitcoin Price Drop Below $90,000?

The 365-day moving average, now near $102,000, has acted as Bitcoin’s primary structural floor since late 2023. 

Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim it this week echoes the pattern seen in December 2021, when repeated rejections at this level marked the beginning of the 2022 bear market.

However, the broader market context suggests a mid-cycle reset rather than a full macro top. Liquidity conditions remain unstable, ETF flows turned negative, and long-term holders have been distributing at the fastest pace since early 2024.

Even so, the loss of the 365-day average remains significant. 

Good day to remember this.
Once Bitcoin breaks below the 365-day MA, its pretty difficult to recover. Judging by the data of how previous bear markets started, I would say we are in one.

It would take a complete turnaround of demand, sentiment, capital flows to revert the… https://t.co/IsUlwqAbq0

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) November 14, 2025

Historically, remaining below this line for several weekly closes triggers deeper retracements. A sustained breakdown increases the probability of a move toward sub-$90,000.

On-chain data reinforces this risk. The realized price for Bitcoin holders who entered between 6 and 12 months ago is near $94,600. 

This group accumulated heavily during the ETF-driven rally, and their cost basis often acts as a first capitulation zone in bull markets. 

On Friday, Bitcoin briefly traded below this threshold, pushing many of these holders into unrealized losses.

Those who entered Bitcoin 6 to 12 months ago have a cost basis near 94K.

Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level. I would rather wait than jump to conclusions. pic.twitter.com/i9a5M0xnMW

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 14, 2025

Similar breaks occurred in both 2017–2018 and 2021–2022. Each period saw prolonged declines after price slipped below the 6–12 month cost-basis band. 

This trend suggests rising pressure on recent buyers and increases the chance of a deeper reset.

Long-range cycle data provides additional context. Bitcoin’s bull cycles show recurring mid-cycle corrections of 25% to 40%. 

Using the 2025 peak near $125,000, a typical pullback would place Bitcoin between $75,000 and $93,000. These drawdown levels align closely with current technical and on-chain floors.

I see stories about "old whales dumping bitcoin", but the data does not support those stories.

Almost 7 million BTC transacted onchain in 2025. Most BTC came from 2024 transactions. One big 84k BTC 2011 whale. And some 2017-2023 sellers. But that's it, business as usual. pic.twitter.com/w2aHjJ3XmD

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 12, 2025

As a result, analysts see three major zones forming. 

Key Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch

The first support sits at $92,000 to $95,000, matching the 6–12 month cost basis and recent ETF inflow levels. This area is likely the first reaction point. 

However, a stronger correction could push Bitcoin into the $85,000 to $90,000 band, which aligns with a standard 25%–30% mid-cycle decline.

The bearish scenario extends deeper. If ETF outflows accelerate and macro conditions worsen, Bitcoin could retest the $75,000 to $82,000 zone. 

This would represent a 35%–40% drawdown from the cycle high and match previous mid-cycle resets. Drops below $70,000 remain unlikely without a major liquidity shock.

Despite the recent weakness, Bitcoin has not shown a blow-off top or a structural exhaustion pattern. This suggests that current moves form part of a broader consolidation within the bull market, not the start of a new multi-year downtrend.

For now, Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the 365-day moving average will determine the depth of the correction. 

A quick recovery would ease selling pressure and reduce the likelihood of a move under $90,000. 

Continued rejection, however, raises the probability of a deeper test of the mid-cycle support zones.

The post Will Bitcoin Price Drop Below $90,000 as Key Psychological Support Fails?  appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Aster bergerak untuk menenangkan komunitasnya setelah kesalahpahaman di CoinMarketCap (CMC) membuat pengguna yakin bahwa proyek tersebut diam-diam mengubah jadwal pembukaan kunci tokennya.

Tim mengatakan tokenomics tetap tidak berubah dan menyalahkan pembaruan di CMC yang membuat kebingungan ini terjadi.

Kebingungan ASTER Token Unlock

Klarifikasi tersebut datang beberapa jam setelah anggota komunitas Aster memperhatikan pembukaan kunci besar-besaran yang akan datang terdaftar di CMC — termasuk satu untuk Desember 2025 dan dua rilis besar dijadwalkan untuk tahun 2035.

Ini bertentangan dengan pernyataan sebelumnya dari exchange tentang menunda pembukaan kunci 2025 ke pertengahan 2026.

A recent update to the tokenomics of ASTER on CoinMarketCap (CMC) has caused confusion within the community. This confusion stemmed from a miscommunication, and we sincerely apologize for the inconvenience caused. We want to clarify that the ASTER tokenomics remain unchanged.…

— Aster (@Aster_DEX) November 15, 2025

Ketidakpastian dimulai ketika data CMC yang diperbarui menunjukkan 200 juta ASTER dijadwalkan untuk dibuka pada 15 Desember 2025, diikuti dengan 3,86 miliar ASTER dan 1,6 miliar ASTER dibuka pada tahun 2035.

Angka-angka tersebut menunjukkan bahwa 75% dari total pasokan token masih terkunci, dengan 24% saat ini beredar.

Aster mengatakan pembaruan CMC dimaksudkan untuk mengoreksi informasi pasokan yang beredar dan menjelaskan bagaimana token ekosistem yang tidak digunakan sedang diperlakukan.

Tim mengatakan token yang dibuka setiap bulan di bawah alokasi ekosistem belum pernah memasuki peredaran dan tetap tidak tersentuh di alamat terkunci sejak TGE.

Agar tidak menimbulkan kebingungan lebih lanjut, Aster sekarang akan mentransfer token yang sudah dibuka-tapi-belum-digunakan ke alamat terbuka yang didedikasikan untuk membedakannya dari wallet operasional.

Tim mengatakan tidak ada rencana untuk menggunakan alamat ini.

Mengapa Ini Penting untuk Holder ASTER

Episode ini menyoroti masalah yang sering terjadi di pasar kripto. Data pasokan yang beredar tidak konsisten atau tidak jelas dapat memengaruhi aksi harga, ekspektasi investor, dan risiko dilusi yang dipersepsikan.

Pasokan yang beredar dari Aster berjumlah sekitar 2,017 miliar ASTER, dengan 6,06 miliar masih terkunci. Kapitalisasi pasar sekitar US$2,28 miliar, sedangkan nilai fully diluted melebihi US$9 miliar.

Interpretasi mendadak bahwa pembukaan kunci besar akan segera terjadi mungkin telah menyulut spekulasi tentang dilusi, terutama setelah proyek ini baru saja mengalami volume perdagangan besar dan volatilitas meningkat.

Meski terjadi kebingungan, ASTER diperdagangkan lebih tinggi pada hari itu, bergerak di sekitar US$1,14, naik sekitar 8% dalam 24 jam. Harga tersebut berfluktuasi antara US$1,02–US$1,15, stabil setelah penjualan pagi hari.

Bitcoin jatuh ke US$94.000 pada hari Jumat, memicu kekhawatiran akan likuidasi lebih lanjut dan menuju terendah tahunan di US$76.000. BTC menghadapi tekanan turun yang meningkat setelah turun di bawah rata-rata pergerakan 365 hari, level yang telah menjadi penopang siklus bull saat ini.

Penurunan ini kembali memunculkan kekhawatiran akan koreksi yang lebih besar, terutama karena level biaya berbasis on-chain utama menunjukkan tanda-tanda awal stres.

Apakah Harga Bitcoin Akan Turun di Bawah US$90,000?

Rata-rata pergerakan 365 hari, yang kini mendekati US$102.000, telah berfungsi sebagai lantai struktural utama Bitcoin sejak akhir 2023.

Kegagalan Bitcoin untuk merebutnya kembali minggu ini menggemakan pola yang terlihat pada Desember 2021, ketika penolakan berulang pada level ini menandai awal dari pasar bear 2022.

Namun, konteks pasar yang lebih luas mengindikasikan reset tengah siklus daripada puncak makro penuh. Kondisi likuiditas tetap tidak stabil, arus ETF berubah negatif, dan holder jangka panjang telah mendistribusikan dengan kecepatan tercepat sejak awal 2024.

Meskipun demikian, kehilangan rata-rata 365 hari tetap signifikan.

Good day to remember this.
Once Bitcoin breaks below the 365-day MA, its pretty difficult to recover. Judging by the data of how previous bear markets started, I would say we are in one.

It would take a complete turnaround of demand, sentiment, capital flows to revert the… https://t.co/IsUlwqAbq0

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) November 14, 2025

Sebagai catatan sejarah, tetap di bawah garis ini untuk beberapa penutupan mingguan memicu koreksi yang lebih dalam. Penurunan yang berkelanjutan meningkatkan kemungkinan pergerakan menuju di bawah US$90.000.

Data on-chain memperkuat risiko ini. Harga realisasi untuk holder Bitcoin yang masuk antara 6 dan 12 bulan lalu mendekati US$94.600.

Kelompok ini banyak mengakumulasi selama reli yang dipicu oleh ETF, dan basis biaya mereka sering bertindak sebagai zona kapitulasi pertama dalam pasar bull.

Pada hari Jumat, Bitcoin sempat diperdagangkan di bawah ambang batas ini, mendorong banyak dari holder ini ke dalam kerugian yang belum direalisasikan.

Those who entered Bitcoin 6 to 12 months ago have a cost basis near 94K.

Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level. I would rather wait than jump to conclusions. pic.twitter.com/i9a5M0xnMW

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) November 14, 2025

Penurunan serupa terjadi pada 2017–2018 dan 2021–2022. Setiap periode melihat penurunan berkepanjangan setelah harga jatuh di bawah rentang basis biaya 6–12 bulan.

Tren ini menunjukkan tekanan yang meningkat pada pembeli terbaru dan meningkatkan kemungkinan reset yang lebih dalam.

Data siklus jangka panjang memberikan konteks tambahan. Siklus bull Bitcoin menunjukkan koreksi pertengahan siklus berulang antara 25% hingga 40%.

Menggunakan puncak tahun 2025 di dekat US$125.000, koreksi tipikal akan menempatkan Bitcoin antara US$75.000 dan US$93.000. Tingkat koreksi ini sejajar dengan lantai teknis dan on-chain saat ini.

I see stories about "old whales dumping bitcoin", but the data does not support those stories.

Almost 7 million BTC transacted onchain in 2025. Most BTC came from 2024 transactions. One big 84k BTC 2011 whale. And some 2017-2023 sellers. But that's it, business as usual. pic.twitter.com/w2aHjJ3XmD

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 12, 2025

Hasilnya, analis melihat tiga zona utama yang terbentuk.

Tingkat Harga Bitcoin Penting yang Harus Dipantau

Dukungan pertama berada di US$92.000 hingga US$95.000, yang cocok dengan basis biaya 6–12 bulan dan level arus masuk ETF terbaru. Area ini kemungkinan menjadi titik reaksi pertama.

Namun, koreksi yang lebih kuat dapat mendorong Bitcoin ke rentang US$85.000 hingga US$90.000, yang sejajar dengan penurunan standar 25%–30% pertengahan siklus.

Skenario bearish meluas lebih dalam. Jika aliran keluar ETF meningkat dan kondisi makro memburuk, Bitcoin dapat menguji ulang zona US$75.000 hingga US$82.000.

Ini akan mewakili penurunan 35%–40% dari puncak siklus dan sesuai dengan reset pertengahan siklus sebelumnya. Penurunan di bawah US$70.000 tetap tidak mungkin tanpa kejutan likuiditas besar.

Meski mengalami kelemahan baru-baru ini, Bitcoin belum menunjukkan puncak blow-off atau pola kelelahan struktural. Ini mengindikasikan bahwa pergerakan saat ini merupakan bagian dari konsolidasi yang lebih luas dalam pasar bull, bukan awal dari tren penurunan multi-tahun baru.

Untuk saat ini, kemampuan Bitcoin untuk merebut kembali rata-rata pergerakan 365 hari akan menentukan kedalaman koreksi.

Pemulihan yang cepat akan mengurangi tekanan jual dan mengurangi kemungkinan pergerakan di bawah US$90.000.

Namun, penolakan berlanjut meningkatkan probabilitas pengujian lebih dalam dari zona dukungan pertengahan siklus.