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Solana has struggled to recover after a recent price decline, with SOL remaining capped below the $130 resistance. The altcoin has shown attempts to stabilize, yet momentum remains fragile.
Unlike previous rallies driven by new inflows, the next move appears dependent on existing Solana holders rather than fresh market entrants.
On-chain data shows early signs of stabilization. The Chaikin Money Flow has posted a sharp uptick over the past few days. Although the indicator remains below the zero line, the upward movement suggests that capital outflows are slowing.
This shift is critical for Solana’s recovery outlook. Declining outflows often precede a transition toward inflows. Once buying pressure outweighs selling, SOL price can respond quickly. Sustained improvement in CMF would signal returning confidence among current holders.
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Macro indicators present a more cautious picture. The number of new Solana addresses has dropped sharply in recent sessions. New addresses declined from 6.077 million to 5.390 million, an 11.3% decrease over ten days.
Falling network participation suggests weaker speculative interest. New investors appear hesitant, citing limited short-term incentives. This lack of fresh demand places greater importance on existing holders to support price stability and any recovery attempt.
Solana trades near $126 at the time of writing, remaining below the $130 resistance level. Price action shows consolidation rather than a breakout. The immediate goal for SOL is reclaiming $130, which would mark a shift in short-term momentum.
Declining outflows improve the probability of a rebound. If current holders maintain accumulation and inflows emerge, buying pressure could lift SOL toward $130. A sustained move above this level would require consistent support rather than brief speculative spikes.
Downside risks persist if sentiment deteriorates. Renewed selling could push Solana below the $123 support. A breakdown at that level may expose $118 as the next downside target. Losing this support would invalidate the bullish outlook and reinforce short-term weakness.
The post Solana Price Depends On Existing SOL Holders, Here’s Why appeared first on BeInCrypto.
A coalition of more than 125 cryptocurrency companies and advocacy groups has launched a coordinated offensive against US banking lobbyists. The group includes major crypto firms such as Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken.
The move escalates a high-stakes battle over who has the right to pay interest on stablecoin deposits.
The main bone of contention is that the GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits stablecoin issuers like Tether from paying dividends.
However, there is currently a loophole that allows third-party platforms, such as crypto exchanges, to pass this stablecoin yield on to users.
As a result, traditional banking groups are aggressively lobbying to close this avenue, arguing that it constitutes regulatory arbitrage.
The banking lobby contends that if unregulated fintech platforms are allowed to offer high yields on cash-equivalent tokens, it poses a systemic risk to the traditional financial architecture.
In briefings with Capitol Hill, they warned that preserving the current rules could trigger a massive capital flight. They estimated potential deposit outflows of up to $6.6 trillion from commercial banks to digital asset platforms.
Such a shift, they argue, would hollow out the capital base that banks use to underwrite mortgages and business loans. That erosion would force lenders to shrink capacity and raise borrowing costs for American households.
In a December 18 letter to the US Senate Committee on Banking, the crypto coalition urged lawmakers to reject attempts to expand the scope of the recently enacted GENIUS Act.
“Reopening this issue before the GENIUS Act’s implementation would weaken the certainty that defines Congressional-enacted regulatory frameworks and introduce unnecessary risk into the broader market structure effort. It would signal that even recently enacted compromises remain subject to almost immediate renegotiation, undermining the predictability that markets, consumers, and innovators rely on,” the group argued.
The crypto coalition also dismissed the banks’ concerns about stability as a protectionist effort to maintain a monopoly on low-interest deposits.
The signatories argued that banks are merely trying to protect their profit margins by preventing consumers from accessing the 4% yields currently available in the Treasury market.
“Stablecoins rewards programs enable platforms to share value directly with users, helping households benefit from higher-rate environments rather than absorbing losses to inflation,” the crypto firms argued.
The Banksters are trying to prohibit platforms like @Gemini, @coinbase, and @krakenfx from offering stablecoin rewards to you. The GENIUS Act already settled this issue with an elegant compromise — stablecoin issuers cannot offer rewards, but intermediary platforms like Gemini,… https://t.co/QpdiQfaD0X
— Tyler Winklevoss (@tyler) December 19, 2025
Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, also publicly slammed the banking lobby’s maneuver, characterizing it as an attempt to “relitigate a settled legislative issue.”
The post Hundreds of Crypto Firms Slam US Bank’s Lobby to Prohibit Stablecoin Yields appeared first on BeInCrypto.
XRP has struggled to sustain a recovery over the past several days, with price repeatedly failing to gain traction near key resistance levels. Despite the hesitation, investor behavior is shifting.
Large holders appear to be increasing exposure, signaling growing confidence that current prices may offer an attractive entry point.
On-chain data shows a notable increase in whale accumulation. Addresses holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP added roughly 330 million tokens over the past 48 hours.
This accumulation is valued at approximately $642 million, highlighting renewed demand from large investors.
Such behavior suggests XRP whales are capitalizing on depressed prices rather than exiting positions. Accumulation during consolidation phases often reflects expectations of recovery.
This demand can provide structural support, reducing downside risk while improving the probability of a sustained rebound.
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Macro indicators further support the constructive outlook. XRP’s liveliness metric has declined over the past week, signaling reduced coin movement. This trend suggests that long-term holders are shifting away from a selling behavior.
Lower liveliness readings often reflect accumulation or holding patterns. Even a pause in selling by long-term holders can stabilize price action.
Reduced distribution helps absorb short-term volatility, improving conditions for recovery when new demand enters the market.
XRP trades near $1.94 at the time of writing, sitting just below a month-long downtrend that has capped upside. The immediate recovery target stands at $2.02. A break above this level would signal renewed strength and an improvement in the trend.
Accumulation by whales and declining long-term selling pressure favor a bullish scenario. If these factors persist, XRP could push past $2.02 and advance toward $2.20. Such a move would mark a clear breakout from the prevailing downtrend.
Downside risks remain if bearish pressure regains control. A failure to sustain momentum could pull XRP back toward $1.85. Further weakness may expose the $1.79 support. Losing that level would invalidate the bullish thesis and reinforce near-term downside risk.
The post XRP Whales Bought $640 Million, What are They Anticipating? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Hedera’s HBAR continues to trade under pressure as a persistent downtrend limits upside attempts. Multiple breakout efforts have failed, keeping the altcoin from establishing higher levels.
The broader market environment has added strain, preventing HBAR from gaining traction despite brief stabilization near key support zones.
Technical indicators show growing bearish momentum. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator was released earlier last week, triggering heightened volatility. Instead of an upside move, the release resulted in a sharp price drop, reinforcing negative sentiment among short-term traders.
The indicator’s histogram continues to deepen in bearish territory. This pattern suggests selling pressure remains dominant. Strengthening downside momentum reduces the likelihood of HBAR price recovery, as traders hesitate to reenter positions amid weak technical confirmation.
HBAR’s macro outlook is closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance. The altcoin currently shows a strong correlation of 0.79 with BTC. This relationship indicates HBAR is largely mirroring Bitcoin’s price movements rather than acting independently.
Bitcoin’s struggle to recover has therefore weighed heavily on HBAR. When BTC lacks momentum, correlated assets often face similar constraints. Unless Bitcoin stages a sustained rebound, HBAR’s ability to break its downtrend remains limited by broader market weakness.
HBAR trades near $0.111 at the time of writing, holding slightly above the $0.110 support. The token dropped 24.5% earlier last week after failing to escape its month-long downtrend. Current price action suggests cautious stabilization rather than reversal.
Given prevailing conditions, HBAR may continue to struggle below the $0.120 level. Persistent bearish momentum could drag the price toward $0.099. A move to this zone would extend losses and reinforce the downtrend that has dominated recent trading sessions.
A bullish alternative depends on renewed investor inflows. Increased buying interest could help HBAR reclaim $0.120 and break free from its downward structure. A sustained push toward $0.125 would invalidate the bearish thesis and signal improving confidence among market participants.
The post HBAR Price Looks Closely Tried to Bitcoin, What’s Next? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Ethereum core developers have revealed plans to execute two major network upgrades in 2026, codenamed “Glamsterdam” and “Hegota.”
This decision marks the blockchain network’s continued strategic pivot toward a faster release cadence. The move is intended to establish a predictable biannual upgrade schedule and strengthen its competitive position against high-throughput rivals.
The roadmap positions “Glamsterdam” for release in the first half of 2026, arriving fast on the heels of the recent “Fusaka” hard fork.
According to developers, Glamsterdam will focus on immediate scalability and efficiency fixes, primarily through gas optimizations and “Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation” (ePBS).
This technical upgrade aims to separate the roles of block builders and block proposers at the protocol level. It reduces censorship risks and further decentralizes the network.
Meanwhile, the developers intend to finalize the full feature list for Glamsterdam immediately following the holiday break.
On the other hand, the second phase of the 2026 sprint, “Hegota,” targets the latter half of the year.
The upgrade’s name reflects its dual nature, combining the “Bogota” execution-layer update with the “Heze” consensus-layer update.
Christine Kim, a former Vice President at Galaxy Digital who now closely tracks protocol governance, noted that scoping discussions for Hegota will commence on the January 8 All Core Developers call.
These sessions will determine the fork’s “headliner” features, with a finalized scope expected by late February.
Parallel to these structural changes, the Ethereum Foundation is aggressively reorienting its long-term research toward security hardening.
Researcher George Kadianakis confirmed that the network aims to achieve “128-bit provable security” by year-end 2026. The cryptographic standard is considered essential for institutional-grade financial applications.
“For zkEVMs, this isn’t academic. A soundness issue is not like other security issues. If an attacker can forge a proof, they can forge anything: mint tokens from nothing, rewrite state, steal funds. For an L1 zkEVM securing hundreds of billions of dollars, the security margin is not negotiable,” he stated.
The Foundation has linked this initiative to specific milestones, including a “soundcalc” integration in February and full alignment with the Glamsterdam hard fork in May.
Meanwhile, these efforts aim to remove the technical friction that currently limits Ethereum’s mass adoption.
To bridge this gap, developers are implementing a strategy to lower entry barriers and match the intuitive simplicity of mainstream consumer applications.
The post Ethereum Developers Plan ‘Glamsterdam’ and ‘Hegota’ Upgrades for 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Zcash has recorded a sharp upside move, gaining 13% over the past 24 hours and pushing closer to the $500 level.
The rally reflects improving holder confidence and supportive technical momentum. Unlike many altcoins, ZEC is maintaining relative strength despite broader market uncertainty.
Momentum indicators highlight Zcash’s improving sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above the neutral 50.0 level and entered the positive zone. This shift places ZEC among a small group of altcoins currently showing bullish momentum.
An RSI above 50.0 suggests buyers are gaining control. This positioning may help Zcash resist short-term bearish pressure affecting the wider market. Strong momentum readings often support trend continuation when paired with stable demand from holders.
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Macro indicators reinforce the constructive outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow is trending higher, signaling a slowdown in capital outflows. Although the indicator remains below the zero line, the upward move suggests selling pressure is easing.
Retracing outflows is significant during recovery phases. If market conditions remain steady, declining outflows could transition into net inflows. Such a shift would confirm improving conviction and provide the liquidity needed to sustain ZEC’s upward trajectory.
Zcash price is standing near $438 at the time of writing, marking a 13% gain in one day. The price is now testing the $442 resistance zone. Clearing this level is critical for confirming the continuation of the current rally.
Bullish technical signals support further upside. If momentum indicators remain positive and capital flows stabilize, ZEC could advance toward $500. The move would require only a 13.8% increase from current levels, making the target technically achievable in favorable conditions.
Downside risks persist if resistance holds. Failure to breach $442 or renewed selling could pull ZEC back toward the $403 support. A breakdown below that level would weaken the bullish outlook and open the door to a deeper correction toward $370.
The post Will Zcash (ZEC) Price Rally Beyond $500? Here’s What the Charts Say appeared first on BeInCrypto.
A cryptocurrency trader lost $50 million in Tether’s USDT after falling victim to a sophisticated “address poisoning” attack.
On December 20, blockchain security firm Scam Sniffer reported that the attack began after the victim sent a small $50 test transaction to his own address.
Notably, traders use this standard precaution to confirm that they are sending funds to the correct address.
However, that activity alerted an automated script controlled by the attacker, which immediately generated a “spoofed” wallet address.
🚨💔 A victim lost ~$50M after copying the wrong address from contaminated transfer history. https://t.co/ur4SJ0cvN0 pic.twitter.com/6K5ftJzC1G
— Scam Sniffer | Web3 Anti-Scam (@realScamSniffer) December 20, 2025
The fake address is designed to match the intended recipient’s address at the beginning and end of the alphanumeric string. The differences appear only in the middle characters, making the fraud difficult to detect at a glance.
The attacker then sent a negligible amount of cryptocurrency from the spoofed address to the victim’s wallet.
That transaction effectively placed the fraudulent address into the victim’s recent transaction history, where many wallet interfaces display only truncated address details.
Relying on that visual shorthand, the victim copied the address from their transaction history without checking the full string. So, instead of transferring funds to a secure personal wallet, the trader sent 49,999,950 USDT directly to the attacker.
After receiving the funds, the malicious attacker quickly moved to limit the risk of asset seizure, according to on-chain records. The attacker immediately swapped the stolen USDT, which its issuer can freeze, for the DAI stablecoin using MetaMask Swap.
The attacker then converted the funds into roughly 16,680 ETH.
To further obscure the transaction trail, the attacker deposited the ETH into Tornado Cash. The decentralized mixing service is designed to sever the visible link between sending and receiving addresses.
In an attempt to recover the assets, the victim sent an on-chain message offering a $1 million white-hat bounty in return for 98% of the stolen funds.
“We have officially filed a criminal case. With the assistance of law enforcement, cybersecurity agencies, and multiple blockchain protocols, we have already gathered substantial and actionable intelligence regarding your activities,” the message stated.
The message warned that the victim would pursue “relentless” legal action if the attacker failed to comply within 48 hours.
“If you fail to comply: We will escalate the matter through legal and international law enforcement channels. Your identity will be uncovered and shared with the appropriate authorities. We will relentlessly pursue criminal and civil action until full justice is served. This is not a request. You are being given one final chance to avoid irreversible consequences,” the victim stated.
The incident underscores a persistent vulnerability in how digital wallets display transaction information and how attackers exploit user behavior rather than flaws in blockchain code.
Security analysts have repeatedly warned that wallet providers’ practice of abbreviating long address strings for usability and design reasons creates a persistent risk.
If this problem is not solved, attackers are likely to continue exploiting users’ tendency to verify only the first and last few characters of an address.
The post Crypto Trader Suffers $50 million Loss Following Address Poisoning Attack appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Solana masih kesulitan untuk pulih setelah penurunan harga baru-baru ini, dengan SOL tetap tertahan di bawah resistance US$130. Altcoin ini memang menunjukkan upaya untuk stabil, namun momentumnya masih rapuh.
Berbeda dengan reli sebelumnya yang dipicu oleh arus masuk baru, pergerakan berikutnya nampaknya bergantung kepada holder Solana saat ini, bukan dari pemain baru di pasar.
Data on-chain memperlihatkan tanda-tanda awal stabilisasi. Chaikin Money Flow menunjukkan kenaikan tajam dalam beberapa hari terakhir. Meskipun indikator ini masih di bawah garis nol, pergerakan naik tersebut menandakan arus keluar modal mulai melambat.
Perubahan ini sangat penting bagi peluang pemulihan Solana. Arus keluar yang menurun sering kali mendahului terjadinya arus masuk. Jika tekanan beli mulai melebihi tekanan jual, harga SOL bisa merespons dengan cepat. Peningkatan CMF secara berkelanjutan akan memberi sinyal bahwa kepercayaan holder saat ini mulai kembali.
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Indikator makro memperlihatkan gambaran yang lebih hati-hati. Jumlah alamat Solana baru menurun tajam dalam beberapa sesi terakhir. Alamat baru turun dari 6.077.000 menjadi 5.390.000, atau turun sebesar 11,3% dalam sepuluh hari.
Penurunan partisipasi di jaringan menandakan minat spekulasi juga melemah. Investor baru nampaknya masih ragu, dengan alasan insentif jangka pendek yang terbatas. Kurangnya permintaan baru ini menjadikan peran holder saat ini lebih penting untuk menjaga stabilitas harga dan setiap potensi pemulihan.
Pada waktu publikasi, Solana diperdagangkan di dekat US$126 dan masih di bawah level resistance US$130. Aksi harga saat ini lebih ke konsolidasi daripada sebuah breakout. Target terdekat SOL adalah merebut kembali US$130, yang bisa menandai perubahan momentum jangka pendek.
Arus keluar yang menurun meningkatkan peluang terjadinya rebound. Jika holder saat ini terus akumulasi dan arus masuk mulai muncul, tekanan beli bisa mendorong harga SOL ke arah US$130. Namun, kenaikan yang bertahan di atas level itu butuh dukungan berkelanjutan, bukan hanya lonjakan spekulasi sesaat.
Risiko penurunan masih ada jika sentimen memburuk. Gelombang jual baru bisa menekan Solana turun ke bawah support US$123. Jika harga jebol di level ini, US$118 bisa menjadi target penurunan berikutnya. Kehilangan support tersebut akan menghapus pandangan bullish dan mempertegas kelemahan jangka pendek.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, the US Senate’s most prominent cryptocurrency advocate, announced on December 19 that she will not seek reelection in 2026.
The decision sets a definitive deadline on her legislative agenda, creating a two-year sprint to enshrine digital asset regulations before she leaves office in January 2027.
Lummis cited the “exhausting” pace of recent sessions as the primary driver for her exit. “I am a devout legislator, but I feel like a sprinter in a marathon,” she wrote, admitting she lacks the energy reserves for another six-year term.
Thank you, Wyoming! Serving our state has been the honor of my life. – Cynthia Lummis pic.twitter.com/FoRTlHaHxI
— Cynthia Lummis 🦬 (@CynthiaMLummis) December 19, 2025
Her impending departure adds immediate urgency to the crypto legislative calendar.
Lummis has been a major player behind several pivotal crypto bills, including the crypto market structure bill and the US National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR). Her efforts also stood against the SEC’s “regulation by enforcement” approach under Gensler.
While the Trump administration has reversed several anti-crypto measures and advanced pro-crypto goals through executive action, Sen. Lummis has welcomed those steps.
She has consistently argued, however, that durable progress requires legislative codification rather than policy set by executive order alone.
So, her final term will focus on bridging the gap between temporary executive orders and permanent congressional law to protect the industry from future political reversals.
“I look forward to throwing all my energy into bringing important legislation to [Trump’s] desk in 2026 and into retaining commonsense Republican control of the US Senate,” Lummis said.
Meanwhile, the announcement triggered immediate accolades from industry heavyweights. Some argued that her exit would leave a crypto leadership vacuum in Washington.
Collin McCune, Head of Government Affairs at a16z, highlighted her national impact and noted her role in advancing crypto legislation.
“Senator Lummis fought for Wyoming every day for many years. Beyond that, her leadership created space for innovators and builders across the country. Crypto would not be where it is today without her fight in the Congress,” he added.
Arjun Sethi, co-CEO of crypto exchange Kraken, offered a detailed retrospective on Lummis’s legacy, crediting her with making Wyoming the first jurisdiction to take a “technically informed approach” to digital assets.
Sethi praised Lummis for championing frameworks that aligned with “technical reality” rather than legacy assumptions. He said the approach helped create operating certainty across markets, from Bitcoin to emerging “memetic assets.”
“Senator Lummis advocacy for Bitcoin and digital assets has been grounded, patient, and long term. Not performative. Not reactive. Focused on competitiveness, resilience, and ensuring the United States remains a place where open systems can be built and operated responsibly,” Sethi said.
The post Pro-Crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis Won’t Run for Re-Election appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Sebuah koalisi yang terdiri dari lebih dari 125 perusahaan aset kripto dan kelompok advokasi telah meluncurkan serangan terkoordinasi terhadap pelobi perbankan AS. Grup ini mencakup perusahaan kripto besar seperti Coinbase, Gemini, dan Kraken.
Langkah ini meningkatkan pertarungan besar mengenai siapa yang berhak untuk membayar bunga atas simpanan stablecoin.
Permasalahan utama adalah GENIUS Act secara tegas melarang penerbit stablecoin seperti Tether untuk membayar dividen.
namun, saat ini ada celah yang memungkinkan platform pihak ketiga, seperti exchange aset kripto, untuk menyalurkan hasil dari stablecoin ini kepada pengguna.
Akibatnya, kelompok perbankan tradisional secara agresif melobi untuk menutup jalan ini, karena mereka menyatakan bahwa hal ini adalah arbitrase regulasi.
Lobi perbankan berpendapat jika platform fintech yang tidak teregulasi diizinkan menawarkan hasil tinggi pada token setara kas, maka hal tersebut bisa menimbulkan risiko sistemik bagi arsitektur keuangan tradisional.
Di dalam pemaparan bersama Capitol Hill, mereka memperingatkan bahwa mempertahankan aturan saat ini dapat memicu arus keluar modal besar-besaran. Mereka memperkirakan potensi arus keluar simpanan hingga US$6,6 triliun dari bank komersial ke platform aset digital.
Pergeseran sebesar itu, ujar mereka, akan mengikis basis modal yang digunakan bank untuk mendukung kredit hipotek dan pinjaman bisnis. Akibatnya, bank harus mengurangi penyaluran kredit dan menaikkan biaya pinjaman bagi rumah tangga Amerika.
Pada surat tertanggal 18 Desember kepada Komite Perbankan Senat AS, koalisi kripto mendesak para legislator untuk menolak upaya memperluas cakupan GENIUS Act yang baru disahkan.
“Membuka kembali isu ini sebelum GENIUS Act diimplementasi akan melemahkan kepastian yang menjadi ciri kerangka regulasi hasil keputusan Kongres dan membawa risiko tidak perlu terhadap upaya penguatan struktur pasar secara luas. Ini juga akan mengisyaratkan bahwa kompromi yang baru saja disahkan pun tetap bisa segera dinegosiasi ulang, sehingga mencederai prediktabilitas yang diandalkan pasar, konsumen, dan inovator,” terang koalisi tersebut.
Koalisi kripto juga menepis kekhawatiran bank soal stabilitas dan menilainya hanya sebagai upaya protektif agar tetap memonopoli simpanan berbunga rendah.
Para penandatangan surat itu menjelaskan bahwa bank hanya ingin melindungi margin keuntungan mereka dengan mencegah konsumen mengakses imbal hasil 4% yang sekarang tersedia di pasar Treasury.
“Program rewards stablecoin memungkinkan platform berbagi nilai langsung kepada pengguna, sehingga rumah tangga bisa menikmati manfaat dari lingkungan suku bunga tinggi alih-alih menanggung kerugian akibat inflasi,” papar perusahaan kripto tersebut.
The Banksters are trying to prohibit platforms like @Gemini, @coinbase, and @krakenfx from offering stablecoin rewards to you. The GENIUS Act already settled this issue with an elegant compromise — stablecoin issuers cannot offer rewards, but intermediary platforms like Gemini,… https://t.co/QpdiQfaD0X
— Tyler Winklevoss (@tyler) December 19, 2025
Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder Gemini, juga secara terbuka mengkritisi manuver lobi bank dengan menyebutnya sebagai upaya untuk “memperdebatkan kembali isu legislatif yang sudah selesai.”
XRP kesulitan untuk mempertahankan pemulihan dalam beberapa hari terakhir, karena harga terus gagal menembus resistance kunci. Meskipun begitu, perilaku investor mulai berubah.
Holder besar nampaknya mulai meningkatkan kepemilikan, menandakan kepercayaan yang makin besar bahwa harga saat ini mungkin menjadi titik masuk yang menarik.
Data on-chain menunjukkan adanya peningkatan akumulasi whale secara signifikan. Alamat yang menyimpan antara 100 juta hingga 1 miliar XRP telah menambah sekitar 330 juta token selama 48 jam terakhir.
Akumulasi ini nilainya sekitar US$642 juta, sehingga permintaan dari investor besar pun kembali meningkat.
Perilaku seperti ini menunjukkan bahwa XRP whale memanfaatkan harga yang sedang turun, bukan malah keluar dari posisi mereka. Akumulasi saat fase konsolidasi sering menunjukkan ekspektasi pemulihan.
Permintaan seperti ini bisa memberikan dukungan struktur, sehingga risiko penurunan berkurang dan peluang reli berkelanjutan meningkat.
Ingin insight token lainnya? Daftar ke Daily Crypto Newsletter Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.
Indikator makro juga makin mendukung prospek positif. Liveliness XRP menurun selama seminggu terakhir, menandakan perpindahan koin yang berkurang. Tren ini menunjukkan holder jangka panjang mulai beralih dari perilaku jual.
Angka liveliness yang lebih rendah biasanya merefleksikan pola akumulasi atau penahanan aset. Bahkan jeda dari aksi jual holder jangka panjang bisa membantu menstabilkan pergerakan harga.
Penyebaran distribusi yang berkurang membantu menahan volatilitas jangka pendek, sehingga kondisi pemulihan makin membaik saat permintaan baru masuk ke pasar.
Pada waktu publikasi, XRP diperdagangkan di kisaran US$1,94, sedikit di bawah tren turun satu bulan yang telah menahan kenaikan harga. Target pemulihan terdekat ada di US$2,02. Jika bisa tembus di atas level ini, maka tren akan menunjukkan kekuatan baru dan prospek perbaikan.
Akumulasi dari whale dan tekanan jual holder jangka panjang yang menurun memberikan peluang bullish. Jika faktor ini bertahan, XRP bisa bergerak melewati US$2,02 dan lanjut ke US$2,20. Aksi tersebut akan menandai breakout jelas dari tren turun saat ini.
Risiko penurunan tetap ada jika tekanan jual kembali mendominasi. Jika momentum gagal bertahan, XRP bisa terkoreksi ke kisaran US$1,85. Jika pelemahan makin dalam, support di US$1,79 berada dalam risiko. Jika level tersebut hilang, maka skenario bullish akan batal dan risiko penurunan jadi lebih besar dalam waktu dekat.
HBAR milik Hedera masih bergerak di bawah tekanan karena tren turun yang terus berlanjut membatasi setiap upaya kenaikan. Berbagai usaha breakout telah gagal sehingga altcoin ini belum berhasil mencapai level yang lebih tinggi.
Kondisi pasar yang lebih luas juga ikut menambah tekanan sehingga HBAR kesulitan menguat walau sempat stabil sesaat di sekitar zona support utama.
Indikator teknikal menunjukkan momentum bearish yang semakin kuat. Squeeze Momentum Indicator rilis di awal pekan lalu, memicu volatilitas yang semakin tinggi. Alih-alih naik, indikator ini justru menyebabkan harga turun tajam sehingga memperkuat sentimen negatif di kalangan trader jangka pendek.
Histogram dari indikator ini terus semakin dalam di wilayah bearish. Pola ini menandakan tekanan jual masih sangat dominan. Momentum penurunan yang makin kuat membuat peluang pemulihan harga HBAR semakin kecil karena trader merasa ragu untuk masuk kembali di tengah lemahnya konfirmasi teknikal.
Pandangan makro untuk HBAR sangat berkaitan dengan performa Bitcoin. Saat ini, altcoin tersebut punya korelasi cukup kuat dengan BTC sebesar 0,79. Hubungan ini menunjukkan bahwa pergerakan harga HBAR cenderung meniru pergerakan Bitcoin, bukan bergerak secara mandiri.
Kondisi Bitcoin yang belum pulih juga memberi dampak besar buat HBAR. Kalau BTC lemah, aset kripto lain yang punya korelasi tinggi biasanya mengalami tekanan serupa. Jika Bitcoin belum bisa reli dalam waktu lama, kemampuan HBAR untuk breakout dari tren turun akan tetap terbatas oleh lemahnya sentimen pasar secara umum.
Pada waktu publikasi, HBAR diperdagangkan di area US$0,111, sedikit di atas support US$0,110. Token ini sempat turun 24,5% di awal pekan lalu setelah gagal keluar dari tren turun yang sudah berjalan sebulan lebih. Pergerakan harga saat ini memperlihatkan upaya stabilisasi dengan hati-hati, bukan tanda pembalikan tren naik.
Melihat situasi sekarang, HBAR sepertinya akan tetap bergerak di bawah level US$0,120. Jika tekanan bearish berlanjut, harga bisa saja turun menuju US$0,099. Pergerakan ke zona ini bakal memperpanjang kerugian sekaligus memperkuat tren turun yang mendominasi beberapa sesi perdagangan terakhir.
Alternatif bullish tergantung pada masuknya dana baru dari para investor. Jika minat beli meningkat, hal ini bisa membantu HBAR kembali ke level US$0,120 dan keluar dari struktur tren turun. Sementara itu, reli menuju US$0,125 secara konsisten akan membatalkan pandangan bearish dan menunjukkan kepercayaan pasar yang mulai pulih.
The US Dollar (USD) enters the new year at a crossroads. After several years of sustained strength driven by US growth outperformance, aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, and recurrent episodes of global risk aversion, the conditions that underpinned broad-based USD appreciation are beginning to erode, but not collapse.
FXStreet predicts the coming year is better characterised as a transition phase rather than a clean regime shift.
The 2026 base case is for a moderate softening of the Greenback, led by high-beta and undervalued currencies, as interest-rate differentials narrow and global growth becomes less asymmetric.
The Fed is expected to move cautiously towards policy easing, but the bar for aggressive rate cuts remains high. Sticky services inflation, a resilient labour market, and expansionary fiscal policy argue against a rapid normalisation of US monetary settings.
In the FX galaxy, this implies selective opportunities rather than a wholesale US Dollar bear market.
Near-term risks include renewed US fiscal brinkmanship, with shutdown risk more likely to generate episodic volatility and defensive USD demand than a lasting shift in the Dollar’s trend.
Looking further ahead, the approaching end of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term in May introduces an additional source of uncertainty, with markets beginning to assess whether a future Fed leadership transition could eventually tilt policy in a more dovish direction.
Overall, the year ahead is less about calling the end of Dollar dominance and more about navigating a world in which the USD is less irresistible but still indispensable.
The past year was not defined by a single shock but by a steady sequence of moments that kept testing, and ultimately reaffirming, the US Dollar’s resilience.
It began with a confident consensus that US growth would slow and that the Fed would soon pivot towards easier policy.
That call proved premature, as the US economy remained stubbornly resilient. It activity held up, inflation cooled only slowly, and the labour market stayed tight enough to keep the Fed cautious.
Inflation became the second recurring fault line. Headline pressures eased, but progress was uneven, particularly in services.
Every upside surprise reopened the debate about how restrictive policy really needed to be, and each time the result looked familiar: a firmer Dollar and a reminder that the disinflation process was not yet complete.
Geopolitics added a constant background hum. Tensions in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and fragile US-China relations – namely on the trade front – regularly unsettled markets.
Outside the US, there was little to challenge that setup: Europe struggled to generate clear momentum, China’s recovery failed to convince, and relative growth underperformance elsewhere capped the scope for sustained Dollar weakness.
And then there’s the Trump factor: Politics has mattered less as a clean directional driver for the Dollar and more as a source of recurring volatility.
As the timeline below shows, periods of heightened policy or geopolitical uncertainty have typically been moments when the currency benefited from its safe-haven role.
Moving into 2026, that pattern is unlikely to change. The Trump presidency is more likely to influence FX through bursts of uncertainty around trade, fiscal policy, or institutions than through a predictable policy path.
The Fed policy remains the single most important anchor for the US Dollar outlook. Markets are increasingly confident that the peak in the policy rate is behind us.
Still, expectations for the pace and depth of easing remain fluid and somewhat over-optimistic.
Inflation has clearly moderated, but the final leg of disinflation is proving stubborn, with both headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth still above the bank’s 2.0% goal.
Services inflation remains elevated, wage growth is only slowly cooling, and financial conditions have eased materially. The labour market, while no longer overheating, remains resilient by historical standards.
Against this backdrop, the Fed is likely to cut rates gradually and conditionally, rather than embark on an aggressive easing cycle.
From an FX perspective, this matters because rate differentials are unlikely to compress as rapidly as markets currently expect.
The implication is that USD weakness driven by Fed easing is likely to be orderly rather than explosive.
US fiscal policy remains a familiar complication for the Dollar outlook. Large deficits, rising debt issuance, and a deeply polarised political environment are no longer temporary features of the cycle; they are part of the landscape.
There is a clear tension at work.
On the one hand, expansive fiscal policy continues to support growth, delays any meaningful slowdown, and indirectly props up the Dollar by reinforcing US outperformance.
On the other hand, the steady increase in Treasury issuance raises obvious questions about debt sustainability and how long global investors will remain willing to absorb an ever-growing supply.
Markets have been remarkably relaxed about the so-called “twin deficits” thus far. Demand for US assets remains strong, drawn by liquidity, yield, and the absence of credible alternatives at scale.
Politics adds another layer of uncertainty.
Election years – with midterms in November 2026 – tend to increase risk premia and introduce short-term volatility into FX markets.
The recent government shutdown serves as a prime example: despite the US government resuming operations after 43 days, the main issue remains unresolved.
Lawmakers have pushed the next funding deadline to January 30, keeping the risk of another standoff firmly on the radar.
From a valuation standpoint, the US Dollar is no longer cheap, but neither does it screen as wildly stretched. Valuation alone, however, has rarely been a reliable trigger for major turning points in the Dollar cycle.
Positioning tells a more intriguing story: Speculative positioning has swung decisively, with USD net shorts now sitting at multi-year highs. In other words, a meaningful portion of the market has already positioned for further Dollar weakness.
That does not invalidate the bearish case, but it does change the risk profile. With positioning increasingly one-sided, the hurdle for sustained USD downside rises, while the risk of short-covering rallies grows.
This matters particularly in an environment still prone to policy surprises and geopolitical stress.
Put together, a relatively rich valuation and heavy short positioning argue less for a clean Dollar bear market and more for a choppier ride, with periods of weakness regularly interrupted by sharp and sometimes uncomfortable counter-trend moves.
Geopolitics remains one of the quieter but more reliable sources of support for the US Dollar.
Rather than one dominant geopolitical shock, markets are dealing with a steady build-up of tail risks.
Tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved, the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on Europe, and US-China relations are fragile at best. Add in disruptions to global trade routes and a renewed focus on strategic competition, and the background level of uncertainty stays elevated.
None of this means the Dollar should be permanently bid. But taken together, these risks reinforce a familiar pattern: when uncertainty rises and liquidity is suddenly in demand, the USD continues to benefit disproportionately from safe-haven flows.
● EUR/USD: The Euro (EUR) should find some support as cyclical conditions improve and energy-related fears fade. That said, Europe’s deeper structural challenges haven’t gone away. Weak trend growth, limited fiscal flexibility, and an European Central Bank (ECB) that is likely to ease earlier than the Fed all cap the upside.
● USD/JPY: Japan’s gradual move away from ultra-loose policy should help the Japanese Yen (JPY) at the margin, but the yield gap with the US remains wide, and the risk of official intervention is never far away. Expect plenty of volatility, two-way risk, and sharp tactical moves, rather than anything that resembles a smooth, sustained trend.
● GBP/USD: The Pound Sterling (GBP) continues to face a tough backdrop. Trend growth is weak, fiscal headroom is limited, and politics remains a source of uncertainty. Valuation helps at the margin, but the UK still lacks a clear cyclical tailwind.
● USD/CNY: China’s policy stance remains firmly focused on stability, not reflation. Depreciation pressures on the Renminbi (CNY) haven’t disappeared, but authorities are unlikely to tolerate sharp or disorderly moves. That approach limits the risk of broader USD strength spilling over through Asia, but it also caps the upside for emerging-market FX tied closely to China’s cycle.
● Commodity FX: The likes of the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD), and Norwegian Krone (NOK) should benefit when risk sentiment improves and commodity prices stabilise. Even so, any gains are likely to be uneven and highly sensitive to Chinese data.
In the base case (60% probability), the Dollar gradually loses some ground as interest-rate differentials narrow and global growth becomes less uneven. This is a world of steady adjustment rather than a sharp reversal.
A more bullish outcome for the USD (around 25%), would be driven by familiar forces: inflation proving stickier than expected, Fed rate cuts being pushed further out (or no cuts at all), or a geopolitical shock that revives demand for safety and liquidity.
The bearish Dollar scenario carries a lower probability, around 15%. It would require a cleaner global growth recovery and a more decisive Fed easing cycle, enough to materially erode the buck’s yield advantage.
Another source of uncertainty sits around the Fed itself. With Chief Powell’s term ending in May, markets are likely to start focusing on who comes next well before any actual change takes place.
A perception that a successor might lean more dovish could gradually weigh on the Dollar by eroding confidence in US real yield support. As with much of the current outlook, the impact is likely to be uneven and time-dependent rather than a clean directional shift.
Taken together, the risks remain tilted towards episodic bouts of Dollar strength, even if the broader direction of travel points modestly lower over time.
From a technical standpoint, the Dollar’s recent pullback still looks more like a pause within a broader range than the start of a decisive trend reversal, at least when viewed through the lens of the US Dollar Index.
Step back to the weekly and monthly charts, and the picture becomes clearer: the DXY remains comfortably above its pre-pandemic levels, with buyers continuing to appear whenever stress returns to the system.
On the downside, the first key area to watch is around the 96.30 region, which marks roughly three-year lows. A clean break below that zone would be meaningful, bringing the long-term 200-month moving average just above 92.00 back into play.
Below there, the sub-90.00 area, last tested around the 2021 lows, would mark the next major line in the sand.
On the topside, the 100-week moving average near 103.40 stands out as the first serious hurdle. A move through that level would reopen the
door towards the 110.00 area, last reached in early January 2025. Once (and if) the latter is cleared, the post-pandemic peak near 114.80, which emerged in late 2022, could start to take shape on the horizon.
Taken together, the technical picture fits neatly with the broader macro story. There is room for further downside, but it is unlikely to be smooth or uncontested.
Indeed, the technicals point to a DXY that remains range-bound, paying attention to shifts in sentiment, and prone to sharp counter-moves rather than a clean, one-directional decline.
The year ahead is unlikely to mark the end of the US Dollar’s central role in the global financial system.
Instead, it represents the end of a particularly favourable phase in which growth, policy, and geopolitics aligned perfectly in its favour.
As these forces slowly rebalance, the Greenback should lose some altitude, but not its relevance. For investors and policymakers alike, the challenge will be to distinguish between cyclical pullbacks and structural turning points.
The former is far more likely than the latter.
The post US Dollar Price Annual Forecast: Will 2026 be a Year of Transition? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Para pengembang inti Ethereum telah mengungkapkan rencana untuk melakukan dua upgrade besar jaringan pada tahun 2026, dengan kode nama “Glamsterdam” dan “Hegota”.
Keputusan ini menandai langkah strategis berkelanjutan jaringan blockchain tersebut untuk mempercepat jadwal perilisan upgrade. Langkah ini bertujuan agar ada jadwal upgrade dua kali setahun secara teratur dan membuat posisi Ethereum lebih kompetitif melawan sejumlah rival berkapasitas transaksi tinggi.
Roadmap menargetkan “Glamsterdam” akan dirilis pada paruh pertama 2026, tidak lama setelah hard fork “Fusaka” yang baru-baru ini terjadi.
Menurut para pengembang, Glamsterdam akan berfokus pada perbaikan skalabilitas dan efisiensi secara langsung, terutama lewat optimasi gas dan penerapan “Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation” (ePBS).
Upgrade teknis ini bertujuan memisahkan peran builder blok dan proposer blok di tingkat protokol. Hal ini mengurangi risiko sensor dan makin mendesentralisasikan jaringan.
Sementara itu, para pengembang juga berencana untuk segera merampungkan daftar fitur penuh Glamsterdam setelah libur akhir tahun.
Di sisi lain, tahap kedua dari sprint 2026, yaitu “Hegota”, menyasar paruh kedua tahun tersebut.
Nama upgrade ini mencerminkan dua gabungan pembaruan, yaitu pembaruan layer eksekusi “Bogota” dengan pembaruan layer konsensus “Heze”.
Christine Kim, mantan Wakil Presiden di Galaxy Digital yang kini aktif memantau tata kelola protokol, menuturkan bahwa diskusi lingkup pembaruan Hegota akan dimulai pada panggilan All Core Developers tanggal 8 Januari.
Sesi-sesi ini akan menentukan fitur utama dari hard fork tersebut, dengan lingkup resmi yang diperkirakan rampung di akhir Februari.
Bersamaan dengan perubahan struktural ini, Ethereum Foundation secara agresif tengah mengarahkan ulang riset jangka panjangnya demi memperkuat keamanan jaringan.
Peneliti George Kadianakis mengonfirmasi bahwa tujuan jaringan ini ingin mencapai “keamanan terbukti 128-bit” di akhir tahun 2026. Standar kriptografi tersebut dianggap sangat penting untuk aplikasi finansial tingkat institusi.
“For zkEVMs, this isn’t academic. A soundness issue is not like other security issues. If an attacker can forge a proof, they can forge anything: mint tokens from nothing, rewrite state, steal funds. For an L1 zkEVM securing hundreds of billions of dollars, the security margin is not negotiable,” ucapnya .
Foundation tersebut mengaitkan inisiatif ini dengan sejumlah target khusus, termasuk integrasi “soundcalc” di bulan Februari lalu sinkronisasi penuh dengan hard fork Glamsterdam di bulan Mei.
Upaya ini bertujuan untuk menghilangkan hambatan teknis yang saat ini masih membatasi adopsi massal Ethereum.
Untuk menjembatani hal ini, para pengembang pun menerapkan strategi guna menurunkan hambatan masuk dan menyesuaikan kemudahan aplikasi Ethereum layaknya aplikasi konsumen arus utama.
Zcash mencatat lonjakan tajam ke atas, naik 13% dalam 24 jam terakhir dan semakin mendekati level US$500.
Reli ini menunjukkan kepercayaan holder yang terus membaik dan momentum teknikal yang mendukung. Berbeda dengan banyak altcoin, ZEC mampu menjaga kekuatan relatif meski pasar secara keseluruhan masih tidak pasti.
Indikator momentum menyoroti sentimen Zcash yang semakin positif. Relative Strength Index (RSI) telah naik di atas level netral 50,0 dan masuk ke zona positif. Perubahan ini menempatkan ZEC di antara segelintir altcoin yang saat ini menunjukkan momentum bullish.
RSI di atas 50,0 menandakan pembeli mulai mengambil kendali. Posisi ini bisa membantu Zcash menahan tekanan bearish jangka pendek yang sedang melanda pasar secara luas. Bacaan momentum yang kuat biasanya mendukung kelanjutan tren, apalagi ketika permintaan dari holder tetap stabil.
Ingin insight token seperti ini? Daftar Newsletter Harian Crypto dari Editor Harsh Notariya di sini.
Indikator makro semakin memperkuat prospek positif ini. Chaikin Money Flow bergerak naik, menandakan arus keluar modal mulai melambat. Walaupun indikator ini masih berada di bawah garis nol, kenaikan yang terjadi menunjukkan tekanan jual mulai mereda.
Mengurangi arus keluar sangat penting pada fase pemulihan. Jika kondisi pasar tetap stabil, penurunan arus keluar itu bisa berubah menjadi arus masuk bersih. Pergeseran ini akan mengkonfirmasi keyakinan yang meningkat serta memberikan likuiditas yang dibutuhkan untuk menjaga tren naik ZEC tetap berlanjut.
Harga Zcash saat ini berada di kisaran US$438 pada waktu publikasi, dengan kenaikan 13% dalam satu hari. Kini harga sedang menguji zona resistance US$442. Menembus level ini sangat penting agar reli saat ini dapat berlanjut.
Sinyal teknis bullish mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Jika indikator momentum tetap positif dan arus modal relatif stabil, ZEC dapat melaju menuju US$500. Gerakannya hanya memerlukan kenaikan sebesar 13,8% dari level saat ini, sehingga target itu secara teknikal cukup realistis jika kondisi mendukung.
Risiko pergerakan turun tetap ada jika resistance tetap bertahan. Gagal menembus US$442 atau jika tekanan jual muncul kembali dapat menarik harga ZEC turun ke area support US$403. Jika menembus level tersebut, sentimen bullish akan melemah dan membuka potensi koreksi lebih dalam ke kisaran US$370.
Seorang trader aset kripto kehilangan US$50 juta dalam USDT milik Tether setelah menjadi korban serangan “address poisoning” yang sangat canggih.
Pada 20 Desember, perusahaan keamanan blockchain Scam Sniffer melaporkan bahwa serangan ini bermula setelah korban mengirim transaksi uji coba kecil senilai US$50 ke alamat wallet miliknya sendiri.
Trader memang biasa menggunakan langkah pencegahan standar seperti ini untuk memastikan mereka mengirim dana ke alamat yang benar.
Namun, aktivitas itu justru memicu skrip otomatis milik penyerang, yang langsung membuat sebuah alamat wallet “spoofing”.
🚨💔 A victim lost ~$50M after copying the wrong address from contaminated transfer history. https://t.co/ur4SJ0cvN0 pic.twitter.com/6K5ftJzC1G
— Scam Sniffer | Web3 Anti-Scam (@realScamSniffer) December 20, 2025
Alamat palsu ini dirancang agar cocok dengan alamat tujuan di awal dan akhir deretan karakter alfanumerik. Perbedaan terletak hanya di bagian tengah, sehingga sangat sulit dideteksi sekilas.
Penyerang lalu mengirim sejumlah aset kripto yang sangat kecil dari alamat spoofing tersebut ke wallet korban.
Transaksi tersebut secara efektif menempatkan alamat palsu tadi ke dalam riwayat transaksi terbaru korban, di mana banyak tampilan wallet hanya memperlihatkan bagian alamat yang telah dipersingkat.
Mengandalkan tampilan singkat itu, korban menyalin alamat tersebut dari riwayat transaksi tanpa mengecek seluruh deretan karakter. Alhasil, alih-alih mengirim dana ke wallet pribadi yang aman, trader tersebut justru mengirim langsung 49.999.950 USDT ke penyerang.
Setelah menerima dana tersebut, penyerang jahat tersebut langsung bergerak untuk mengurangi risiko aset disita, menurut catatan on-chain. Penyerang pun segera menukar USDT hasil curian, yang dapat dibekukan oleh pihak penerbit, menjadi stablecoin DAI melalui MetaMask Swap.
Penyerang kemudian mengonversi dana tersebut menjadi sekitar 16.680 ETH.
Untuk semakin menyamarkan jejak transaksi, pelaku kemudian mendepositkan ETH ke Tornado Cash. Layanan mixing terdesentralisasi ini memang dirancang agar hubungan alamat pengirim dan penerima menjadi sulit dilacak.
Dalam upaya memulihkan aset, korban mengirim pesan on-chain yang menawarkan bounty white-hat senilai US$1 juta jika penyerang mengembalikan 98% dana yang dicuri.
“We have officially filed a criminal case. With the assistance of law enforcement, cybersecurity agencies, and multiple blockchain protocols, we have already gathered substantial and actionable intelligence regarding your activities,” ujar pesan tersebut .
Pesan itu juga memperingatkan bahwa korban akan melakukan tindakan hukum “tanpa henti” jika penyerang tidak menggubris dalam waktu 48 jam.
“If you fail to comply: We will escalate the matter through legal and international law enforcement channels. Your identity will be uncovered and shared with the appropriate authorities. We will relentlessly pursue criminal and civil action until full justice is served. This is not a request. You are being given one final chance to avoid irreversible consequences,” terang korban.
Insiden ini menegaskan adanya kerentanan yang terus berulang pada sistem wallet digital yang menampilkan informasi transaksi — dan bagaimana penyerang mengeksploitasi perilaku pengguna, bukan celah di kode blockchain.
Analis keamanan telah berulang kali memperingatkan bahwa praktik penyedia wallet yang memangkas panjang alamat demi kepraktisan dan desain antarmuka justru menciptakan risiko besar yang berkelanjutan.
Jika masalah ini tidak segera diatasi, para penyerang hampir pasti akan terus memanfaatkan kebiasaan pengguna yang hanya mengecek beberapa karakter awal dan akhir dari sebuah alamat.
The SEC has finalized civil settlements against three former senior executives at FTX and Alameda Research.
This judgment formally closes a major chapter in the regulator’s case tied to the collapse of the crypto exchange.
In a statement released on December 18, the SEC said it has filed proposed final consent judgments against Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, Gary Wang, former chief technology officer of FTX, and Nishad Singh, former co-lead engineer at FTX.
The judgments are subject to court approval.
ICYMI – Caroline Ellison was "quietly moved" from federal prison to "community confinement," after serving 11 months of her two year sentence, with online prison records listing an early release for Feb 2026 — BI pic.twitter.com/5HCAK5mQD2
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) December 18, 2025
The SEC confirms that FTX raised more than $1.8 billion from investors by portraying itself as a safe trading platform with strong protections for customer assets.
Investors were also told that Alameda Research operated like any other customer on the exchange. But those claims were false.
In reality, FTX secretly gave Alameda special privileges. The trading firm was exempted from risk controls and granted a virtually unlimited line of credit backed by FTX customer deposits.
This allowed Caroline Ellison to borrow and lose billions without facing liquidation.
The regulator alleges that Wang and Singh built the software code that enabled customer funds to be diverted from FTX to Alameda.
Ellison, who ran Alameda, then used those funds for trading, venture investments, and loans to executives, including Sam Bankman-Fried, Wang, and Singh.
Ryan Salame tweets his court filing that his plea was based upon no federal charges against Michelle Bond
— Sunil (FTX Creditor Champion) (@sunil_trades) August 26, 2025
All FTX insiders – Caroline Ellison, Gary Wang, Nishad Singh, Daniel Friedberg, Sam Trabucco etc
Should have got 10-20 years prison
Other creditors feel the same way pic.twitter.com/ooZ9ILFPSD
Without admitting or denying the allegations, all three executives agreed to permanent injunctions barring them from violating key antifraud provisions of US securities law. They also accepted additional restrictions on their future professional roles.
Ellison consented to a 10-year ban from serving as an officer or director of a public company.
Wang and Singh each agreed to 8-year bans as officers and directors.
All three are also subject to 5-year conduct-based injunctions, allowing the SEC to act quickly if they reenter securities-related activities improperly.
As of December 2025, Caroline Ellison has been moved to home confinement. Her release is expected in early 2026.
Gary Wang, FTX’s former CTO and co-founder, received a criminal sentence of time served after cooperating extensively with federal prosecutors. He is currently on supervised release.
Nishad Singh, the former co-lead engineer at FTX, also received a time-served criminal sentence and remains on supervised release.
The post SEC Finalizes Civil Judgments Against Key FTX and Alameda Executives appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, politisi Senat AS yang paling dikenal mendukung aset kripto, mengumumkan pada 19 Desember bahwa ia tidak akan mencalonkan diri lagi pada 2026.
Keputusan ini menjadi tenggat yang pasti untuk agenda legislasinya, sehingga menciptakan dua tahun terakhir untuk memperjuangkan regulasi aset digital sebelum ia meninggalkan jabatannya pada Januari 2027.
Lummis menyebut bahwa ritme kerja yang “melelahkan” dalam beberapa sidang terakhir menjadi alasan utama keputusannya. “Saya adalah legislator yang taat, namun saya merasa seperti pelari jarak pendek di dalam maraton,” tulisnya, sambil mengakui bahwa ia tidak memiliki stamina lagi untuk masa jabatan enam tahun berikutnya.
Thank you, Wyoming! Serving our state has been the honor of my life. – Cynthia Lummis pic.twitter.com/FoRTlHaHxI
— Cynthia Lummis 🦬 (@CynthiaMLummis) December 19, 2025
Kepergiannya dalam waktu dekat membuat agenda regulasi kripto di parlemen menjadi lebih mendesak.
Lummis punya peran penting di sejumlah RUU kripto utama, seperti RUU struktur pasar aset kripto dan Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) nasional AS. Ia juga menentang pendekatan “regulasi melalui penegakan hukum” yang dilakukan SEC di bawah kepemimpinan Gensler.
Walaupun pemerintahan Trump telah membalikkan sejumlah kebijakan anti-kripto serta mendorong tujuan pro-kripto lewat aksi eksekutif, Senator Lummis menyambut langkah-langkah tersebut.
Namun ia juga selalu menegaskan, kemajuan yang bertahan lama harus lewat aturan yang dilembagakan oleh legislatif, bukan sekadar kebijakan dari keputusan eksekutif semata.
Karena itu, masa jabatannya terakhir ini akan fokus menjembatani celah antara perintah eksekutif yang bersifat sementara dengan hukum kongres yang bersifat tetap demi melindungi industri dari potensi pembalikan politik di masa depan.
“I look forward to throwing all my energy into bringing important legislation to [Trump’s] desk in 2026 and into retaining commonsense Republican control of the US Senate,” ujar Lummis.
Sementara itu, pengumuman ini langsung mendapat pujian dari para tokoh besar industri. Sebagian berpendapat kepergian Lummis akan meninggalkan kekosongan kepemimpinan kripto di Washington.
Collin McCune, Kepala Urusan Pemerintahan di a16z, menyoroti pengaruh Lummis secara nasional dan perannya mendorong legislasi kripto.
“Senator Lummis memperjuangkan Wyoming setiap hari selama bertahun-tahun. Selain itu, kepemimpinannya membuka ruang bagi inovator dan builder di seluruh negeri. Dunia kripto tidak mungkin seperti saat ini tanpa perjuangannya di Kongres,” tambahnya.
Arjun Sethi, co-CEO crypto exchange Kraken, memberikan ulasan mendalam terkait warisan Lummis, dan menyebut dirinya berjasa menjadikan Wyoming sebagai yurisdiksi pertama yang menerapkan pendekatan “berbasis pengetahuan teknis” pada aset digital.
Sethi memuji Lummis karena mengedepankan kerangka kerja yang sejalan dengan “realitas teknis” daripada asumsi lama. Ia mengatakan bahwa pendekatan ini membantu menciptakan kepastian operasional di berbagai pasar, baik pada Bitcoin sampai “aset memetik” yang baru muncul.
“Senator Lummis advocacy for Bitcoin and digital assets has been grounded, patient, and long term. Not performative. Not reactive. Focused on competitiveness, resilience, and ensuring the United States remains a place where open systems can be built and operated responsibly,” papar Sethi .
Dolar AS (US$) memasuki tahun baru di titik persimpangan. Setelah beberapa tahun mengalami kekuatan stabil berkat pertumbuhan ekonomi AS yang lebih unggul, kebijakan pengetatan agresif dari The Fed, serta seringnya muncul sentimen risiko global, kondisi yang selama ini mendorong apresiasi US$ secara menyeluruh mulai terkikis, namun belum runtuh.
Menurut FXStreet, tahun mendatang lebih tepat disebut sebagai fase transisi daripada perubahan rezim secara menyeluruh.
Skenario utama tahun 2026 adalah pelemahan moderat Greenback, dipimpin oleh mata uang yang high-beta dan undervalued, seiring selisih suku bunga semakin menyempit dan pertumbuhan global menjadi tidak terlalu timpang.
The Fed diprediksi akan lebih hati-hati dalam melonggarkan kebijakan, tapi syarat untuk pemangkasan suku bunga secara agresif masih sangat tinggi. Inflasi sektor jasa yang masih tinggi, pasar tenaga kerja yang tangguh, serta kebijakan fiskal yang ekspansif menjadi alasan mengapa normalisasi kebijakan moneter AS tidak terjadi dengan cepat.
Di pasar FX, kondisi ini berarti peluang selektif, bukan bear market US Dollar secara keseluruhan.
Risiko dalam waktu dekat termasuk potensi ketegangan fiskal AS yang terulang kembali. Risiko shutdown lebih mungkin memicu volatilitas sesaat dan permintaan defensif terhadap US$ daripada mengubah tren US$ dalam jangka panjang.
Melihat lebih jauh, mendekati berakhirnya masa jabatan Ketua The Fed Jerome Powell pada Mei menjadi sumber ketidakpastian tambahan, karena pasar mulai mempertimbangkan apakah pergantian kepemimpinan di The Fed ke depan bisa membuat kebijakan beralih ke arah yang lebih dovish.
Secara umum, tahun mendatang bukan soal mengakhiri dominasi US Dollar, melainkan tentang menavigasi dunia di mana US$ tidak lagi terlalu tak tergantikan, namun tetap sangat dibutuhkan.
Tahun lalu bukan ditandai satu guncangan besar, melainkan serangkaian peristiwa yang terus menguji—dan pada akhirnya menegaskan kembali—daya tahan US Dollar.
Tahun tersebut diawali oleh konsensus kuat bahwa pertumbuhan AS akan melambat dan The Fed segera beralih ke kebijakan yang lebih longgar.
Perkiraan itu ternyata terlalu dini, karena ekonomi AS tetap tangguh. Aktivitas ekonomi masih terjaga, inflasi menurun dengan lambat, dan pasar kerja tetap cukup ketat sehingga The Fed tetap hati-hati.
Inflasi menjadi isu berulang kedua. Tekanan utama memang mereda, namun laju penurunannya tidak merata, terutama di sektor jasa.
Setiap kejutan kenaikan inflasi kembali memunculkan perdebatan tentang seberapa ketat kebijakan yang diperlukan, dan setiap kali hasilnya serupa: US Dollar menguat, serta pasar kembali diingatkan bahwa proses disinflasi belum selesai.
Geopolitik juga menjadi latar belakang yang konsisten. Ketegangan di Timur Tengah, perang di Ukraina, dan hubungan AS-Cina yang rapuh—terutama soal perdagangan—sering mengacaukan pasar.
Di luar AS, tidak banyak yang mampu menantang kondisi ini: Eropa kesulitan membangun momentum, pemulihan Cina kurang meyakinkan, dan pertumbuhan yang relatif lambat di negara lain membatasi peluang pelemahan US Dollar yang bertahan lama.
Ada juga faktor Trump: Politik selama ini bukan pendorong utama arah US Dollar, melainkan pemicu volatilitas berulang.
Seperti tampak pada timeline di bawah, periode ketidakpastian kebijakan atau geopolitik biasanya menjadi saat-saat US Dollar mendapatkan manfaat dari statusnya sebagai aset safe haven.
Menuju tahun 2026, pola ini sepertinya tidak akan berubah. Kepemimpinan Trump lebih berpotensi memengaruhi pasar FX melalui ledakan ketidakpastian seputar perdagangan, kebijakan fiskal, atau institusi, bukan melalui jalur kebijakan yang bisa diprediksi.
Kebijakan The Fed masih menjadi jangkar paling penting bagi prospek US Dollar. Pasar makin yakin bahwa puncak suku bunga sudah lewat.
Meski begitu, ekspektasi tentang kecepatan dan kedalaman pelonggaran kebijakan masih berubah-berubah dan agak terlalu optimistis.
Inflasi memang melandai dengan jelas, tapi bagian akhir dari proses disinflasi ini berjalan lambat. Baik pertumbuhan CPI utama maupun inti masih di atas target 2,0% milik bank sentral.
Inflasi jasa tetap tinggi, pertumbuhan upah menurun sangat perlahan, dan kondisi keuangan sudah melonggar secara signifikan. Pasar tenaga kerja, walau tidak lagi panas, tetap kuat dibanding standar historis.
Dengan latar seperti ini, The Fed kemungkinan hanya memangkas suku bunga secara bertahap dan bersyarat, bukan mulai siklus pelonggaran yang agresif.
Dari sudut pandang FX, ini penting sebab selisih suku bunga tidak akan menyempit secepat yang diharapkan pasar saat ini.
Implikasinya, pelemahan US Dollar akibat pelonggaran dari The Fed kemungkinan akan terjadi secara teratur dan bukan secara ekstrem.
Kebijakan fiskal AS tetap menjadi hambatan yang sudah akrab untuk prospek Dollar. Defisit besar, penerbitan utang yang terus naik, dan lingkungan politik yang sangat terpolarisasi bukan lagi fenomena sementara dalam siklus; tapi sudah menjadi bagian dari lanskap ekonomi di Amerika Serikat.
Ada ketegangan yang jelas dalam situasi ini.
Di satu sisi, kebijakan fiskal yang ekspansif terus mendukung pertumbuhan, memperlambat terjadinya perlambatan ekonomi besar, dan secara tidak langsung menopang Dollar karena memperkuat performa ekonomi AS dibanding negara lain.
Namun di sisi lain, penerbitan Treasury yang meningkat terus-menerus memunculkan pertanyaan jelas tentang keberlanjutan utang dan berapa lama investor global akan tetap mau menyerap pasokan utang yang semakin bertambah.
Pasar sejauh ini sangat santai terhadap apa yang disebut “defisit kembar”. Permintaan atas aset Amerika Serikat tetap kuat, didorong oleh likuiditas, yield yang tinggi, dan ketiadaan alternatif yang kredibel dalam skala besar.
Politik menambah satu lapisan ketidakpastian lagi.
Tahun pemilu – dengan pemilu sela pada November 2026 – biasanya meningkatkan premi risiko dan memicu volatilitas jangka pendek di pasar forex.
Penutupan pemerintahan baru-baru ini menjadi contoh utama: meski operasi pemerintah AS kembali berjalan setelah 43 hari, masalah utama masih belum selesai.
Para legislator telah mendorong tenggat waktu pendanaan berikutnya ke 30 Januari, sehingga risiko kebuntuan masih tetap tinggi di radar para pelaku pasar.
Dari sudut pandang valuasi, Dollar AS sudah tidak murah lagi, tapi juga tidak terlalu mahal. Namun, valuasi saja jarang menjadi pemicu andal bagi perubahan besar siklus Dollar.
Data posisi pasar memberikan gambaran yang lebih menarik: Posisi spekulatif sudah berbalik tajam, dengan net short USD saat ini berada di level tertinggi beberapa tahun. Artinya, sebagian pelaku pasar sudah mengambil posisi untuk pelemahan Dollar yang lebih lanjut.
Ini bukan berarti skenario bearish tidak mungkin terjadi, tapi situasi ini mengubah profil risikonya. Karena posisi semakin didominasi satu sisi, peluang penurunan Dollar yang berkelanjutan menjadi lebih sulit, sedangkan risiko reli akibat penutupan posisi short menjadi lebih besar.
Hal ini menjadi sangat penting, apalagi di tengah situasi yang masih rawan kejutan kebijakan maupun stres geopolitik.
Jika semua faktor ini digabungkan, valuasi yang relatif tinggi dan posisi short yang berat tidak mengindikasikan pasar bearish Dollar yang mulus. Sebaliknya, pergerakan Dollar nampaknya akan lebih tidak menentu, dengan periode pelemahan yang kerap terganggu oleh koreksi tajam dan terkadang kurang nyaman ke arah sebaliknya.
Geopolitik masih menjadi salah satu sumber dukungan Dollar AS yang cenderung sepi namun andal.
Alih-alih satu guncangan geopolitik yang dominan, pasar kini menghadapi penumpukan risiko-risiko tambahan secara bertahap.
Ketegangan di Timur Tengah masih belum terselesaikan, perang di Ukraina terus membebani Eropa, dan hubungan AS dengan Cina pun masih rapuh. Ditambah lagi gangguan pada jalur perdagangan global serta peningkatan persaingan strategis, tingkat ketidakpastian di latar belakang tetap tinggi.
Semua situasi ini tidak berarti Dollar harus selalu naik permintaannya. Tapi jika seluruh risiko ini digabungkan, pola yang sama dapat terlihat: saat ketidakpastian naik dan permintaan likuiditas tiba-tiba meningkat, USD tetap mendapat manfaat secara tidak proporsional dari arus dana safe-haven.
● EUR/USD: Euro (EUR) seharusnya mendapat dukungan ketika kondisi siklus membaik dan ketakutan terkait energi mulai mereda. Tapi, tantangan struktural yang lebih dalam di Eropa belum banyak berubah. Pertumbuhan tren yang lemah, keterbatasan fleksibilitas fiskal, dan European Central Bank (ECB) yang sepertinya akan lebih dahulu melonggarkan kebijakan dibanding The Fed, semuanya membatasi potensi penguatan Euro.
● USD/JPY: Peralihan kebijakan moneter Jepang secara bertahap dari kebijakan ultra-longgar bisa membantu Yen Jepang (JPY) secara perlahan. Namun, selisih yield dengan Amerika Serikat masih lebar, dan risiko intervensi resmi juga tetap tinggi. Bersiaplah untuk volatilitas tinggi, risiko dua arah, dan pergerakan taktis tajam, bukan tren yang mulus dan berkelanjutan.
● GBP/USD: Pound Sterling (GBP) masih menghadapi kondisi sulit. Pertumbuhan trennya lemah, ruang fiskal yang terbatas, dan politik tetap menjadi sumber ketidakpastian. Valuasi sedikit membantu, namun Inggris masih kekurangan dorongan siklus yang jelas.
● USD/CNY: Pendekatan kebijakan Cina tetap fokus pada stabilitas, bukan reflasi. Tekanan depresiasi terhadap Renminbi (CNY) memang masih ada, tapi otoritas setempat tidak mungkin membiarkan pergerakan yang tajam atau tidak terkendali. Strategi ini membatasi risiko penguatan USD yang lebih luas merembet ke Asia, tapi juga menahan potensi penguatan mata uang pasar berkembang yang sangat terkait dengan siklus Cina.
● Commodity FX: Mata uang seperti Dollar Australia (AUD), Dollar Kanada (CAD), dan Krone Norwegia (NOK) berpotensi diuntungkan saat sentimen risiko membaik dan harga komoditas stabil. Tapi, keuntungan yang didapat kemungkinan tidak rata dan sangat sensitif terhadap data ekonomi dari Cina.
Dalam skenario dasar (probabilitas 60%), Dollar secara perlahan kehilangan sebagian kekuatannya seiring selisih suku bunga makin menyempit dan pertumbuhan global tidak lagi terlalu timpang. Ini adalah skenario penyesuaian gradual, bukan pembalikan tajam.
Skenario lebih bullish untuk USD (sekitar 25%) bisa terjadi jika faktor-faktor lama kembali terulang: inflasi ternyata lebih melekat, pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed ditunda lebih jauh (atau malah tidak terjadi sama sekali), atau ada kejutan geopolitik yang kembali meningkatkan permintaan atas keamanan dan likuiditas.
Skenario bearish Dollar peluangnya lebih rendah, sekitar 15%. Skenario ini butuh pemulihan pertumbuhan global yang bersih serta siklus pelonggaran The Fed yang lebih tegas untuk mengikis keunggulan yield Dollar secara signifikan.
Satu sumber ketidakpastian lainnya berada di seputar The Fed sendiri. Dengan masa jabatan Chief Powell berakhir pada Mei, pelaku pasar sepertinya mulai fokus pada siapa pengganti berikutnya jauh sebelum pergantian tersebut benar-benar berlangsung.
Persepsi bahwa pengganti selanjutnya mungkin lebih dovish bisa perlahan menekan US Dollar karena membuat kepercayaan terhadap dukungan imbal hasil riil AS semakin berkurang. Seperti banyak hal terkait proyeksi saat ini, dampaknya sepertinya akan tidak merata dan juga sangat bergantung pada waktu, bukan berupa perubahan arah yang jelas.
Jika melihat secara keseluruhan, risikonya masih cenderung memicu episode-episode penguatan US Dollar, meski arah pergerakan jangka panjangnya perlahan menurun seiring waktu.
Dari sisi teknikal, koreksi US Dollar baru-baru ini masih terlihat lebih sebagai jeda di dalam rentang harga yang lebih luas dibanding sebagai awal pembalikan tren yang tegas, setidaknya jika dilihat dengan kaca mata US Dollar Index.
Jika kita mundur ke grafik mingguan dan bulanan, gambaran situasinya jadi semakin jelas: DXY masih berada jauh di atas level sebelum pandemi, dengan pembeli terus muncul setiap kali ada tekanan dalam sistem.
Untuk sisi bawahnya, area penting pertama yang perlu dipantau ada di sekitar 96,30, yang mencatatkan posisi terendah sekitar tiga tahun terakhir. Jika harga benar-benar menembus ke bawah zona tersebut, maka moving average 200 bulan jangka panjang di atas 92,00 akan kembali jadi perhatian.
Di bawah itu, area di bawah 90,00—yang terakhir kali diuji di sekitar level terendah 2021—akan menjadi batas besar selanjutnya.
Untuk sisi atasnya, moving average 100 minggu di dekat 103,40 justru menjadi penghalang serius pertama. Jika berhasil menembus level tersebut,
maka pintu menuju area 110,00, terakhir dicapai pada awal Januari 2025, akan terbuka. Jika area ini bisa ditembus, puncak pasca-pandemi di sekitar 114,80—yang muncul pada akhir 2022—bisa mulai terlihat di depan mata.
Jika digabungkan, gambaran teknikal ini sangat cocok dengan cerita makro yang lebih luas. Masih ada peluang penurunan lebih lanjut, tapi sepertinya tidak akan berjalan mulus atau tanpa perlawanan.
Memang, secara teknikal, DXY sepertinya tetap akan berada dalam rentang tertentu, harus memperhatikan perubahan sentimen, dan rentan mengalami pergerakan balik yang tajam daripada penurunan satu arah yang jelas.
Tahun mendatang sepertinya tidak akan menjadi akhir dari peran sentral US Dollar di sistem keuangan global.
Alih-alih, ini hanya menandai akhir dari periode yang sangat menguntungkan di mana pertumbuhan, kebijakan, dan geopolitik berjalan berpihak pada dolar AS.
Ketika faktor-faktor ini mulai perlahan seimbang kembali, Greenback kemungkinan akan kehilangan kekuatan, namun tidak akan kehilangan relevansi. Untuk investor dan pembuat kebijakan, tantangannya adalah membedakan antara koreksi siklus biasa dengan titik balik struktural.
Koreksi siklus jauh lebih mungkin terjadi dibanding perubahan yang sifatnya struktural.
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