Rencana Charles Schwab untuk meluncurkan perdagangan aset kripto spot pada 2026 merupakan salah satu langkah paling signifikan dari sebuah broker besar di AS.

Perusahaan ini, yang mengelola lebih dari US$12,000,000.000.000 dalam aset klien, berencana menawarkan perdagangan Bitcoin dan Ethereum di semua platformnya setelah pengujian internal dan fase pilot terbatas.

Charles Schwab Akan Membawa Investor Mainstream Ke Aset Kripto

Masuknya Schwab menandai perubahan dalam cara broker tradisional mendekati aset digital. Perusahaan ini sudah menawarkan eksposur tidak langsung melalui ETF bertema kripto, namun perdagangan spot menghadirkan aset kripto ke dalam lingkungan yang sama dengan saham, obligasi, dan akun pensiun.

Ini bisa mengubah cara investor mainstream mengakses kripto.

Charles Schwab CEO on crypto…

“It’s a topic that’s of high engagement.”

Schwab clients own *20%* of all crypto exchange traded products.

Visits to Schwab crypto site ↑ 90% in last year.

Schwab operates one of largest brokerages in US.

Hope you’re paying attention. pic.twitter.com/XR10TRR6NK

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) October 18, 2025

Pengumuman ini juga menyoroti dorongan strategis untuk mengkonsolidasikan aktivitas investor. Jutaan pelanggan Schwab saat ini memegang aset tradisional dan menggunakan exchange eksternal untuk kripto.

Menyatukan fungsi-fungsi tersebut dalam satu akun mengurangi hambatan dan memperkuat jejak Schwab di berbagai kelas aset.

Sementara itu, raksasa keuangan AS lainnya, Vanguard juga mengumumkan ekspansinya ke dalam kripto minggu lalu.

Just when they finish dumping the crypto market…

Charles Schwab, Vanguard & Bank of America all magically launch crypto trading for their clients in the same week.

What an absolutely wild, totally random coincidence 😂📉🚀 pic.twitter.com/iLk30R3j6a

— Austin Hilton (@austinahilton) December 3, 2025

Ancaman Kompetitif Baru

Langkah Schwab memperkenalkan tantangan struktural bagi exchange kripto di AS. Broker ini dikenal dengan perdagangan saham dan ETF tanpa komisi.

Jika menerapkan pendekatan biaya rendah yang sama untuk kripto, ini bisa melemahkan model pendapatan inti dari perusahaan seperti Coinbase dan Kraken.

The new Grayscale spot Chainlink ETF did really solid volume on Day one of $13m and looks like it could see same again today (way more than it ever traded as a trust). Also $41m in first day flows. Another insta-hit from the crypto world, only dud so far was Doge but it's still… pic.twitter.com/wlCemHxkQP

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 3, 2025

Exchange kripto sangat bergantung pada biaya perdagangan. Biaya ritel Coinbase sering kali melebihi 1%, bahkan platform canggih mengenakan biaya hingga 0,60%.

Schwab mampu menekan harga lebih rendah karena mendapatkan pendapatan dari berbagai saluran, termasuk pendapatan bunga, layanan pengelolaan, dan eksekusi pesanan. Exchange kripto tidak memiliki diversifikasi yang sama.

Selain itu, Schwab menawarkan lingkungan pengawasan regulasi yang tidak dapat disaingi oleh exchange. Aset klien berada dalam kerangka pengawasan SEC dan FDIC yang sudah lama ada.

Tingkat kepercayaan institusional ini menarik bagi banyak investor ritel dan yang lebih tua yang tetap ragu dengan platform kripto khusus.

ETFs Membuat Tekanan Harga Lebih Sulit

Tekanan biaya semakin meningkat karena investor sudah dapat memperdagangkan Bitcoin ETF secara gratis di Schwab dan broker lainnya.

ETF ini juga memiliki selisih yang sangat ketat, seringkali sekitar 1–2 basis poin. Untuk Schwab, mengingat perdagangan kripto langsung, ia harus menawarkan biaya rendah yang bersaing dengan eksekusi ETF yang hampir gratis.

Kepemilikan langsung masih memiliki keunggulan karena menghindari rasio biaya ETF. Namun, manfaat tersebut hanya berarti jika biaya perdagangan tetap rendah. Dinamika ini mendorong Schwab menuju harga agresif dan, pada gilirannya, memaksa exchange untuk merespons.

Fase Baru untuk Pasar Aset Kripto di AS

Masuknya Schwab mencerminkan bagaimana keuangan tradisional mulai merambah wilayah aset digital. Ini menempatkan tekanan harga, kepercayaan, dan akses produk pada perusahaan kripto-murni pada saat pasar sudah berubah ke arah struktur yang diatur.

Dampak penuh tergantung pada model biaya akhir dan desain kustodi Schwab.

Nampaknya tanda-tanda awal menunjukkan tekanan kompetitif yang signifikan di depan, terutama bagi exchange yang bergantung pada selisih perdagangan eceran.

Bitcoin terus diperdagangkan dekat US$92.000 setelah reli minggu ini, namun klaster indikator on-chain yang semakin berkembang ini kini menunjukkan pasar sudah memasuki siklus bearish. 

Ini sangat kontras dengan prediksi terbaru dari pemimpin pasar seperti Tom Lee dan Arthur Hayes, yang berpendapat Bitcoin masih bisa menutup tahun dengan nilai yang signifikan lebih tinggi.

Prediksi Bullish Bertabrakan dengan Data

Lee baru-baru ini melunak dari target awal US$250.000 dan sekarang memperkirakan Bitcoin tetap di atas US$100.000 hingga akhir tahun. 

Sementara itu, Arthur Hayes memiliki pandangan yang jauh lebih agresif, menyebut penurunan baru-baru ini ke kisaran US$80.000 sebagai dasar siklus dan memprediksi potensi pergerakan menuju US$200.000–US$250.000. 

Namun, struktur pasar saat ini tidak sesuai dengan kedua skenario tersebut.

CryptoQuant’s komposit Bull Score Signals menunjukkan alasannya. Selama fase bull sebelumnya, termasuk akhir 2023 dan awal 2025, model ini menampilkan kondisi hijau secara luas dalam valuasi, pertumbuhan permintaan, aktivitas jaringan, dan likuiditas stablecoin. 

Sejak pertengahan 2025, komponen-komponen ini secara konsisten berubah merah. MVRV Z-score telah bergeser ke wilayah terlalu panas, aktivitas jaringan melemah, dan daya beli stablecoin menurun.

Polanya menyerupai tahap awal penurunan 2022 daripada kelanjutan reli 2025.

Selain itu, Indeks Bull Score, memberikan pandangan yang lebih rinci. Bitcoin menghabiskan paruh pertama 2025 di wilayah bullish dengan bacaan di atas 60. 

Menjelang akhir Agustus, skor mulai turun tajam, turun di bawah 40 pada bulan Oktober dan tetap datar hingga November meskipun ada volatilitas harga jangka pendek. 

Bacaan terbaru berada di kisaran 20–30, dalam kondisi bearish. Pemulihan dari penurunan minggu lalu sedikit mengubah sinyal siklus dasar. 

Selain itu, Bull Score yang dipetakan terhadap harga, memperkuat pandangan ini. Model ini telah beralih dari sinyal “sangat bullish” berwarna hijau awal tahun ini ke sinyal “bearish” dan “sangat bearish” yang persisten sepanjang September, Oktober, dan November. 

Bahkan pemulihan terbaru menuju US$92.000 dikategorikan sebagai reli zona bearish, mencerminkan fase distribusi yang terlihat di puncak siklus sebelumnya.

Momentum Metrics Perkuat Kasus Bitcoin Bearish

Indikator momentum pasar sekarang mencerminkan pergeseran siklus yang sama. RSI tetap netral sekitar 50, menandakan kurangnya keyakinan di balik kenaikan minggu ini. 

Chaikin Money Flow tetap negatif hampir sepanjang bulan, mencerminkan aliran modal keluar yang berlanjut bahkan ketika harga pulih. 

Meskipun MACD baru-baru ini berubah positif, histogram sudah menunjukkan amplitudo yang melemah. Ini menunjukkan bahwa pergerakan tersebut kurang memiliki momentum yang berkelanjutan.

Sinyal tambahan memperkuat kehati-hatian. Lonjakan RSI jangka pendek di atas 70 dalam beberapa hari terakhir gagal bertahan, menunjukkan penjual tetap aktif dalam setiap upaya untuk breakout. Ketidakmampuan CMF untuk kembali ke wilayah positif menyoroti distribusi yang sedang berlangsung daripada akumulasi. 

Sementara itu, crossover rentan MACD mencerminkan kondisi yang terlihat selama reli pasar bearish sebelumnya, di mana momentum meningkat sesaat sebelum kembali melemah.

Secara keseluruhan, indikator on-chain, likuiditas, dan momentum menunjukkan pergeseran struktural ke dalam siklus bearish. 

If Strategy holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells only a little), we would not see another -65% drawdown like in 2022.

We are about -25% from ATH now, and even if a bear cycle comes, the downside would likely be smaller and look more like a broad sideways range.

Long-term… pic.twitter.com/71HBg0UDs7

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) December 3, 2025

Sementara Tom Lee dan Arthur Hayes berpendapat bahwa Bitcoin dapat memulihkan kekuatannya, data pasar saat ini menunjukkan sebaliknya. 

Kecuali jika likuiditas stablecoin, aktivitas jaringan, dan pertumbuhan permintaan pulih dengan tegas, pemulihan terbaru Bitcoin lebih mungkin hanya pantulan sementara daripada awal fase kenaikan baru.

Charles Schwab’s plan to launch spot crypto trading in 2026 is shaping up as one of the most consequential moves from a major US brokerage. 

The firm, which oversees more than $12 trillion in client assets, intends to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading across its platforms after internal testing and a limited pilot phase.

Charles Schwab Will Bring Mainstream Investors To Crypto

Schwab’s entry marks a shift in how traditional brokers approach digital assets. The company already offers indirect exposure through crypto-thematic ETFs, but spot trading brings cryptocurrencies into the same environment as stocks, bonds, and retirement accounts. 

This could change how mainstream investors access crypto.

Charles Schwab CEO on crypto…

“It’s a topic that’s of high engagement.”

Schwab clients own *20%* of all crypto exchange traded products.

Visits to Schwab crypto site ↑ 90% in last year.

Schwab operates one of largest brokerages in US.

Hope you’re paying attention. pic.twitter.com/XR10TRR6NK

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) October 18, 2025

The announcement also highlights a strategic push to consolidate investor activity. Millions of Schwab customers currently hold traditional assets and use external exchanges for crypto. 

Bringing those functions under one account reduces friction and strengthens Schwab’s footprint across asset classes.

Meanwhile, another US financial giant, Vanguard also announced its expansion into crypto last week.

Just when they finish dumping the crypto market…

Charles Schwab, Vanguard & Bank of America all magically launch crypto trading for their clients in the same week.

What an absolutely wild, totally random coincidence 😂📉🚀 pic.twitter.com/iLk30R3j6a

— Austin Hilton (@austinahilton) December 3, 2025

A New Competitive Threat

Schwab’s move introduces a structural challenge for US crypto exchanges. The brokerage is known for zero-commission stock and ETF trading. 

If it extends the same low-fee approach to crypto, it undercuts the core revenue model of companies like Coinbase and Kraken.

The new Grayscale spot Chainlink ETF did really solid volume on Day one of $13m and looks like it could see same again today (way more than it ever traded as a trust). Also $41m in first day flows. Another insta-hit from the crypto world, only dud so far was Doge but it's still… pic.twitter.com/wlCemHxkQP

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 3, 2025

Crypto exchanges rely heavily on trading fees. Coinbase’s retail fees often exceed 1%, and even advanced platforms charge up to 0.60%. 

Schwab can afford to price well below that because it generates revenue from multiple channels, including interest income, advisory services, and order execution. Crypto exchanges do not have the same diversification.

Moreover, Schwab offers a regulatory environment that exchanges cannot match. Client assets sit within long-standing SEC and FDIC oversight frameworks. 

This level of institutional trust appeals to many retail and older investors who remain wary of specialized crypto platforms.

ETFs Make Pricing Pressure Harder

The fee pressure intensifies because investors can already trade Bitcoin ETFs for free on Schwab and other brokerages. 

These ETFs also have extremely tight spreads, often around 1–2 basis points. For Schwab to justify direct crypto trading, it must offer low fees that compete with near-free ETF execution.

Direct ownership still has an advantage because it avoids ETF expense ratios. However, that benefit matters only if trading costs remain low. This dynamic pushes Schwab toward aggressive pricing and, by extension, forces exchanges to respond.

A New Phase for US Crypto Markets

Schwab’s entry reflects how traditional finance is encroaching on digital asset territory. It places price, trust, and product-access pressure on crypto-native firms at a time when markets are already shifting toward regulated structures.

The full impact depends on Schwab’s final fee model and custody design. 

Yet early signs point to significant competitive pressure ahead, especially for exchanges depending on retail trading spreads.

The post Why $12 Trillion Charles Schwab Crypto Entry Could Threaten US Crypto Exchanges appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin continues to trade near $92,000 after this week’s rebound, yet a growing cluster of on-chain indicators now suggests the market has already slipped into a bearish cycle. 

This stands in sharp contrast to recent predictions from market leaders like Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes, who argue Bitcoin could still close the year significantly higher.

Bullish Predictions Clash With Data

Lee recently softened his earlier $250,000 target and now expects Bitcoin to remain above $100,000 into year-end. 

Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes maintains a much more aggressive view, calling the recent dip to the low $80,000s a cycle bottom and forecasting a potential move toward $200,000–$250,000. 

However, the current market structure does not align with either scenario.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Signals composite shows why. During previous bull phases, including late 2023 and early 2025, the model displayed broad green conditions across valuation, demand growth, network activity, and stablecoin liquidity. 

Since mid-2025, these components have turned consistently red. MVRV Z-score has flipped into overheated territory, network activity has weakened, and stablecoin buying power has declined. 

The pattern resembles the early stages of the 2022 downturn rather than a continuation of the 2025 rally.

Also, the Bull Score Index, offers a more granular view. Bitcoin spent the first half of 2025 in bullish territory with readings above 60. 

By late August, the score began falling sharply, dropping below 40 in October and remaining flat through November despite short-term price volatility. 

The latest reading sits in the 20–30 range, deep within bearish conditions. The bounce from last week’s lows has done little to shift the underlying cycle signals. 

Another, the Bull Score mapped to price, reinforces this view. The model has transitioned from green “extra bullish” signals earlier this year to persistent red “bearish” and “extra bearish” readings across September, October, and November. 

Even the recent recovery toward $92,000 is categorized as a bearish-zone rally, mirroring distribution phases seen in previous cycle tops.

Momentum Metrics Strengthen the Bitcoin Bearish Case

Market momentum indicators now echo the same cycle shift. RSI remains neutral around 50, signalling a lack of conviction behind this week’s advance. 

Chaikin Money Flow has stayed negative for most of the month, reflecting continued capital outflows even as price recovers. 

While MACD recently flipped positive, the histogram already shows weakening amplitude. This indicates the move lacks sustained momentum.

Additional signals deepen the caution. Short-term RSI spikes above 70 in recent days failed to hold, showing sellers remain active during every attempt at a breakout. CMF’s inability to return to positive territory highlights ongoing distribution rather than accumulation. 

Meanwhile, MACD’s fragile crossover mirrors conditions seen during past bear market rallies, where momentum improves briefly before rolling over.

Taken together, on-chain, liquidity, and momentum indicators point to a structural shift into a bearish cycle. 

If Strategy holds its 650K BTC this cycle (or sells only a little), we would not see another -65% drawdown like in 2022.

We are about -25% from ATH now, and even if a bear cycle comes, the downside would likely be smaller and look more like a broad sideways range.

Long-term… pic.twitter.com/71HBg0UDs7

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) December 3, 2025

While Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes argue that Bitcoin could regain its earlier strength, current market data suggests the opposite. 

Unless stablecoin liquidity, network activity, and demand growth rebound decisively, Bitcoin’s recent recovery is more likely a temporary bounce than the beginning of a new upside phase.

The post Most Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators Signal a New Bear Market Cycle appeared first on BeInCrypto.