Normal view

Received today — 24 December 2025 BeInCrypto

US Debt Interest Hits $1T: The Hidden Catalyst for Stablecoin Adoption

24 December 2025 at 09:45

The US federal government’s interest payments on national debt surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in fiscal year 2025. Interest expenditure now exceeds both defense spending and Medicare—a first in American history.

Wall Street analysts and social media users alike are invoking “Weimar” as warnings of fiscal crisis mount. Meanwhile, the US Treasury is positioning stablecoins as a strategic tool to absorb the growing flood of government debt.

The Numbers: A Crisis in Plain Sight

In fiscal year 2020, net interest payments totaled $345 billion. By 2025, that figure nearly tripled to $970 billion—outpacing defense spending by approximately $100 billion. When accounting for all interest on publicly held debt, the figure crossed $1 trillion for the first time.

Source: US Congressional Budget Office via KobeissiLetter

The Congressional Budget Office projects cumulative interest payments over the next decade will total $13.8 trillion—nearly double the inflation-adjusted amount spent over the past two decades.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns that under an alternative scenario where tariffs are ruled illegal and temporary provisions of recent legislation are made permanent, interest costs could reach $2.2 trillion by 2035—a 127% increase from current levels.

Why This Is Unprecedented

The debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 100%, a threshold not seen since World War II. By 2029, it will surpass the 1946 peak of 106% and continue climbing to 118% by 2035.

Most concerning is the crisis’s self-reinforcing nature. The federal government borrows approximately $2 trillion annually, with roughly half going solely toward servicing existing debt. CRFB analyst Chris Towner warned of a potential “debt spiral”: “If the people who loan us money get worried we’re not going to pay it all back, we could see higher interest rates—which means we have to borrow more to pay interest.”

Historic FirstYearSignificance
Interest exceeds Defense spending2024First time since World War II
Interest exceeds Medicare2024Debt servicing now largest healthcare expense
Debt reaches 100% of GDP2025First time since WWII aftermath
Debt to surpass 1946 peak (106%)2029Will exceed all-time historical record
Source: BeInCrypto

Market Reaction: “Weimar” and “Buy Gold”

Social media erupted at these projections. “The trajectory is unsustainable if unchanged,” wrote one user. Another posted “weimar”—a reference to 1920s German hyperinflation. “The debt service era,” declared another, capturing the sentiment that America has entered a new phase.

The overwhelming majority called for flight to hard assets—gold, silver, and real estate. Notably absent was little mention of Bitcoin, suggesting traditional “gold bug” thinking still dominates retail sentiment.

Market Implications

Near-term, surging Treasury issuance absorbs market liquidity. With risk-free yields near 5%, equities and cryptocurrencies face structural headwinds. In the medium term, fiscal pressure may accelerate regulatory tightening and cryptocurrency taxation.

Long-term, however, presents a paradox for crypto investors. As fiscal instability deepens, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative strengthens. The worse traditional finance performs, the stronger the case for assets outside the system becomes.

Stablecoins: Crisis Meets Solution

Washington has found an unexpected ally in its fiscal troubles. The GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, requires stablecoin issuers to maintain 100% reserves in US dollars or short-term Treasury bills. This effectively transforms stablecoin companies into structural buyers of government debt.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared stablecoins “a revolution in digital finance” that will “lead to a surge in demand for US Treasuries.”

Standard Chartered estimates stablecoin issuers will purchase $1.6 trillion in T-bills over four years—enough to absorb all new issuance during Trump’s second term. This would exceed China’s current Treasury holdings of $784 billion, positioning stablecoins as a replacement buyer as foreign central banks reduce US debt exposure.

The Debt Service Era Begins

America’s fiscal crisis is paradoxically opening doors for cryptocurrency. While conventional investors rush toward gold, stablecoins are quietly becoming critical infrastructure for US debt markets. Washington’s embrace of stablecoin regulation is not merely about innovation—it is about survival. The debt service era has begun, and crypto may be its unlikely beneficiary.

The post US Debt Interest Hits $1T: The Hidden Catalyst for Stablecoin Adoption appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Korean Investors Cashed Out This Year, BOK Says: Global Implications

24 December 2025 at 07:46

The Bank of Korea’s latest Financial Stability Report reveals a significant behavioral shift among Korean crypto investors—from aggressive accumulation to strategic profit-taking, raising questions about the impact on global market dynamics.

This means that, even as Bitcoin surged past $100,000 this year, Korean investors have been cashing out rather than doubling down.

Korea’s Outsized Trading Activity Shows Signs of Cooling

South Korea has long punched above its weight in global cryptocurrency markets. Despite representing a fraction of the world’s population, Korean won (KRW) trading pairs have consistently ranked among the top two fiat currencies globally by volume, often rivaling or exceeding the U.S. dollar during peak periods.

But the BOK’s report suggests a notable change in investor behavior. While Korea’s crypto turnover rate remains elevated at 156.8%—significantly higher than the global average of 111.6%—the nature of that activity has shifted. Rather than chasing rallies, Korean retail investors are now taking profits during the 2025 bull market.

“The domestic crypto market shows high turnover rates as most participants are individual investors who tend to realize gains through short-term trading,” the central bank noted.

Concentration Risks and Market Structure Concerns

The report highlights a striking level of market concentration: the top 10% of investors accounted for 91.2% of total trading volume between 2024 and June 2025, according to Financial Supervisory Service data. This concentration raises concerns about potential price manipulation by a small number of players.

Korea’s unique regulatory environment—which effectively bars corporate participation and prohibits foreign investors from trading on domestic exchanges—has created a market dominated almost entirely by retail traders. The absence of professional market makers has also led to liquidity constraints, as evidenced by Tether’s 5x spike on Bithumb during the October market downturn.

The Global Ripple Effect

When Korean traders pull back, global markets notice. Historical data shows that during the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, Korean exchanges like Upbit and Bithumb frequently ranked among the top in global volume. The so-called “Kimchi Premium“—where Korean crypto prices traded above international benchmarks—served as a reliable indicator of retail euphoria.

The current shift to profit-taking behavior may have contributed to the more measured pace of the 2025 rally compared to previous cycles. With Korean retail investors no longer providing the same level of aggressive bid support, global order books have lost a significant source of buying pressure during key accumulation phases.

The shift is not happening in a vacuum. The BOK’s previous report has attributed the domestic crypto slowdown to a booming local stock market. The KOSPI surged by more than 70% year to date to become the world’s top-performing major index, driven by AI-related stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Daily trading volumes on major Korean crypto platforms have collapsed by over 80% compared to 2024 peaks, as local investors redirect capital toward equities and US leveraged ETFs. “Where did all the Korean retail investors in the crypto circle go? Answer: To the stock market next door,” analyst AB Kuai Dong observed.

Diverging Paths: Korea vs. Global Institutional Adoption

The contrast with global market trends is stark. While Korea remains retail-dominated, international markets have undergone rapid institutionalization since the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. These products have attracted over $54 billion in net inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone amassing more than $50 billion in assets under management.

The BOK report acknowledges this divergence, noting that global crypto markets have become increasingly correlated with traditional equities—particularly during periods of macroeconomic stress or monetary policy shifts. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has risen notably since 2020, driven by institutional participation, corporate treasury adoption, and the proliferation of ETFs.

Korea’s market, by contrast, remains relatively insulated from these global dynamics. The central bank attributes this to high retail investor concentration, liquidity constraints, and capital controls that limit arbitrage opportunities.

What Comes Next: Institutionalization on the Horizon

The report suggests that Korea’s market peculiarities may diminish as regulatory reforms proceed. The government permitted non-profit corporations to sell crypto assets starting in June and has since allowed professional investors to trade on a trial basis. Discussions are also ongoing regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

The BOK projects that allowing financial institutions and foreign investors to participate could help establish proper market-making mechanisms and ease liquidity constraints. Increased institutional participation would likely reduce trading volume volatility and lower turnover rates over time.

However, the central bank also warns of potential risks. “When corporate and foreign investors with superior information and capital enter the market, domestic crypto prices may become more sensitive to supply-demand shifts,” the report cautioned, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring during the transition.

The Bottom Line

Korea’s crypto market is at an inflection point. The shift from aggressive buying to profit-taking signals a maturing investor base, but it also removes a key source of global market momentum. As institutional frameworks develop and regulatory barriers fall, Korea’s influence on global crypto dynamics may evolve from raw retail volume to more sophisticated capital flows.

For now, the days of Korean retail traders single-handedly driving global rallies appear to be fading—a transition that could reshape market sentiment patterns for cycles to come.

The post Korean Investors Cashed Out This Year, BOK Says: Global Implications appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Why Silver Could Outperform Gold and Bitcoin in 2026

24 December 2025 at 07:30

Silver emerged as one of the strongest-performing major assets in 2025, sharply outperforming both gold and Bitcoin. 

The rally was not driven by speculation alone. Instead, it reflected a rare convergence of macroeconomic shifts, industrial demand, and geopolitical pressure that could extend into 2026.

Silver’s 2025 Performance in Context

By late December 2025, silver traded near $71 per ounce, up more than 120% year-to-date. Gold rose roughly 60% over the same period, while Bitcoin ended the year slightly lower after a volatile run that peaked in October.

Silver price entered 2025 near $29 per ounce and climbed steadily through the year. Gains accelerated in the second half as supply deficits widened and industrial demand surprised to the upside.

Silver Price Chart In 2025. Source: BullionVault

Gold also rallied strongly, moving from roughly $2,800 to above $4,400 per ounce, supported by falling real yields and central-bank demand. 

However, silver outpaced gold by a wide margin, consistent with its historical tendency to amplify precious-metal cycles.

Gold Price Chart In 2025. Source: BullionVault

Bitcoin followed a different path. It surged to a record near $126,000 in early October before reversing sharply, ending December near $87,000

Unlike metals, Bitcoin failed to hold safe-haven inflows during late-year risk-off moves.

Macro Conditions Favored Hard Assets

Several macroeconomic forces supported silver in 2025. Most importantly, global monetary policy shifted toward easing. The US Federal Reserve delivered multiple rate cuts by year-end, pushing real yields lower and weakening the dollar.

At the same time, inflation concerns remained unresolved. That combination historically favors tangible assets, particularly those with monetary and industrial value.

Unlike gold, silver benefits directly from economic expansion. In 2025, that dual role proved decisive.

This is a 50-Yr chart of Silver futures
The red arrow marks my 1st trade in Silver
The $50 level rejected Silver in 1981 and 2011
The price has now sliced above $50
Corrections should find support in the low $50s
Upside targets exist at $87 and eventually $200-plus$SI_F pic.twitter.com/sz076mdeP1

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 13, 2025

Industrial Demand Became the Core Driver

Silver’s rally was increasingly anchored in physical demand rather than investment flows. Industrial usage accounts for roughly half of total silver consumption, and that share continues to grow.

The energy transition played a central role. Solar power remained the single largest source of new demand, while electrification across transport and infrastructure added further pressure to already tight supply.

Global silver markets recorded a fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025. Supply struggled to respond, as most silver production comes as a byproduct of base-metal mining rather than primary silver projects.

Most of silver demand is industrial and those users don't care if the price is 5x, because silver is only a small part of their products.

Industrial demand (mainly solar) continues to rise.

Also retail demand in Asia is now INCREASING along with rising prices.

— GoldSilver HQ (@GoldSilverHQ) December 23, 2025

Electric Vehicles Added Structural Demand

Electric vehicles significantly increased silver consumption in 2025. Each EV uses 25 to 50 grams of silver, roughly 70% more than an internal-combustion vehicle.

With global EV sales rising at double-digit rates, automotive silver demand climbed into the tens of millions of ounces annually. 

Charging infrastructure amplified the trend. High-power fast chargers use kilograms of silver in power electronics and connectors.

Unlike cyclical investment demand, EV-related silver consumption is structural. Production growth directly translates into sustained physical offtake.

Silver $71 today.
Just the beginning.
I completed a detailed analysis of Samsung's new battery technology. Production begins in 2027. (Confirmed by Samsung.) Approximately 1 kg of silver will be needed per EV. And Samsung's silver-carbon batteries will also be widely used across…

— HealthRanger (@HealthRanger) December 23, 2025

Defense Spending Quietly Tightened Supply

Military demand became a less visible but increasingly important factor. Modern weapons systems rely heavily on silver for guidance electronics, radar, secure communications, and drones.

A single cruise missile can contain hundreds of ounces of silver, all of which is destroyed upon use. That makes defense demand non-recyclable.

Global military spending reached record highs in 2024 and continued rising in 2025 amid wars in Ukraine and the Middle East

Europe, the United States, and Asia all expanded procurement of advanced munitions, quietly absorbing physical silver.

Geopolitical Shocks Reinforced the Trend

Geopolitical tensions further strengthened silver’s case. Prolonged conflicts increased defense stockpiling, while trade fragmentation raised concerns about supply security for critical materials.

Unlike gold, silver sits at the intersection of national security and industrial policy. Several governments moved to classify silver as a strategic material, reflecting its role in both civilian and military technologies.

This dynamic created a rare feedback loop: geopolitical risk boosted both safe-haven investment demand and real industrial consumption.

The rise in the price of gold and silver from 2001 through 2008 was a sign of a major Fed policy error and a harbinger of the 2008 financial crisis. The current rally that began in 2024 is signaling a bigger policy error that will have even more profound consequences for the U.S.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 22, 2025

Why 2026 Could Extend the Outperformance

Looking ahead, most of the drivers that powered silver price in 2025 remain in place. EV adoption continues to accelerate. Grid expansion and renewable investment remain policy priorities. Defense budgets show no signs of retreat.

At the same time, silver supply remains constrained. New mining projects face long lead times, and recycling cannot offset growing industrial losses from military use.

Gold may continue to perform well if real yields stay low. Bitcoin may recover if risk appetite improves. But neither combines monetary protection with direct exposure to global electrification and defense spending.

That combination explains why many analysts see silver as uniquely positioned for 2026.

Looks like silver is going to be a shocker for most. While a significant group of investors is still in denial and do not realize that we are in a new realities constantly waiting for a pullback, silver keeps pushing higher and higher. My immediate target is $75 – 80. Let's wait… pic.twitter.com/ni35W0lIwd

— Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) December 22, 2025

Silver’s 2025 rally was not a one-off speculative spike. It reflected deep structural changes in how the global economy consumes the metal.

If current trends persist, silver’s dual role as a monetary hedge and industrial necessity could allow it to outperform both gold and Bitcoin again in 2026.

The post Why Silver Could Outperform Gold and Bitcoin in 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

What are the Top Crypto Narratives Worth Paying Attention to in 2026?

24 December 2025 at 06:30

Crypto’s next phase of growth is unfolding quietly, with crypto narratives shifting toward everyday use. Adoption in 2026 is increasingly shaped by how people already use crypto in daily financial life.

In an interview with BeInCrypto, representatives from CakeWallet and SynFutures explained where crypto is realistically headed over the next year. According to them, payments, savings, and risk management are replacing speculation as the main drivers of sustained activity.

Crypto as Everyday Money

One of the clearest signs of real crypto adoption heading into 2026 is its growing role as everyday money, particularly in regions where traditional financial systems are unreliable or inaccessible. 

Rather than being used for speculation, crypto is increasingly becoming a practical tool for saving, spending, and transferring value.

“The answer to this varies widely based on where in the world you are, but I see two massive cases for growth in 2026,” said Seth for Privacy, Vice President of CakeWallet. “The first is in the Global South, where demand for stablecoins has skyrocketed in the last few years.”

Crypto adoption shifts from wallet counts to weekday spending as new behavioral metrics and loyalty economics redefine what real usage means. pic.twitter.com/Hv014vx6Ej

— Kira (@Kira_Crypto247) December 22, 2025

In these regions, crypto often fills gaps left by inflation, capital controls, or weak banking infrastructure. Stablecoins, in particular, allow people to hold value in a currency that does not rapidly depreciate, while remaining easy to transfer.

“The possibility for an average person in Nicaragua, for instance, to use stablecoins like USDT in a privacy-preserving way to store wealth and pay for real needs will help to protect and shield them against malice and theft,” the executive explained.

As crypto becomes more visible, privacy also becomes more important. For users relying on crypto for daily expenses, protecting transaction data is less about ideology and more about personal safety. 

In this context, adoption is driven by necessity rather than enthusiasm, and growth continues regardless of market cycles.

As these use cases mature, the tools supporting them—especially stablecoins—are becoming increasingly central to how crypto functions globally.

Stablecoin Yield and Payments

While stablecoins have long been associated with emerging markets, their role is expanding rapidly across more developed economies as well. In 2026, they are increasingly positioned as a core financial tool rather than a temporary bridge between crypto and fiat.

“By far the biggest market left untapped today is the West,” Seth said. “Many people have overlooked the usefulness of stablecoins due to easy access to banking and fiat on-ramps.”

Our 2026 Infra Year Ahead Report is out now!

Stablecoins have become the most important infrastructure story in crypto.

Every fintech wave promised to fix payments but just layered better UX on the same infrastructure. Revolut and Nubank delivered better experiences while… pic.twitter.com/zEhC6sndmv

— Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) December 17, 2025

However, that perception may shift as users begin to compare the speed and simplicity of stablecoin transfers with traditional financial rails. For many, the appeal lies in avoiding delays, fees, and unnecessary intermediaries.

“Once these users grasp how much easier it is to move back and forth between something like Bitcoin and USDT instead of fiat, the pace of adoption will escalate exponentially,” he added. 

Stablecoins are increasingly shaping how on-chain financial activity functions. More users will likely be attracted to stablecoins for passive income in 2026, tapping into DeFi yield.

“Stablecoins are becoming the base layer of DeFi trading and derivatives markets,” said Wenny Cai, COO at SynFutures. She added that, rather than sitting idle, these assets are increasingly used as active balances. Users are beginning to treat stablecoins as “working capital—funds that are actively deployed, not just parked.”

This shift in how value is held and moved is also changing how users interact with crypto beyond simple payments.

When Usage Becomes Intentional

As crypto markets mature, user behavior is changing alongside them. Instead of chasing short-term price movements, many users are focusing on using crypto in more controlled and intentional ways.

“We’ll see them shift to using crypto as money, finally!” Seth told BeInCrypto. “When speculation dies down and prices stabilize, we will continue to see massive growth in usage of crypto to actually pay for goods and services.”

At the same time, some users are engaging with tools that allow them to better manage exposure and uncertainty. According to Cai, retail users in 2026 are gravitating toward active capital management, not passive speculation.

Rather than overdiversifying, users are narrowing their focus.

“Instead of buying and holding dozens of tokens, users increasingly prefer to trade major assets with leverage, hedge downside risk, or deploy structured strategies—all on-chain,” she explained.

While the underlying mechanics can be complex, the motivation is straightforward. Users want more control, clearer outcomes, and fewer surprises.

As user behavior evolves, adoption is also broadening across different groups and industries.

DeFi and TradFi Integration

Crypto adoption in 2026 is not limited to a single demographic

Instead, it spans individuals, businesses, and professional market participants, each driven by different needs.

“The biggest overall growth is still happening in the Global South, where real people have real needs today, not just a desire to speculate,” Seth explained. “Poor access to banking, rapidly depreciating fiat currencies, and harsh remittance controls make these countries especially ready to accelerate their usage of crypto in 2026.”

"But no one uses it as money!"

For years, skeptics dismissed Bitcoin with the same tired line: "No one actually uses it for payments."

That argument no longer stands up under scrutiny.

As of mid-December 2025, there are now 24,113 verified bitcoin-accepting merchants… pic.twitter.com/xpL00iY8cp

— Alex Stanczyk ∞/21m (@alexstanczyk) December 17, 2025

In parallel, professional users are increasingly integrating crypto tools into existing operations.

“Beyond fintech, trading firms, digital asset managers, and online brokerages are leading adopters of DeFi tools in 2026,” Cai said.

What has changed is readiness. Infrastructure has improved, platforms are more stable, and tools now support consistent, high-volume activity. As a result, adoption is no longer framed as experimentation but as a practical business decision.

Yet even as adoption broadens, one challenge continues to shape how far crypto can realistically expand.

Platforms that Make Crypto Easy to Use

Across both interviews, one common conclusion stands out: the main barrier to broader adoption is no longer technical capability, regulation, or liquidity.

“Absolutely user experience,” said Seth when asked what would most unlock crypto’s growth in 2026. “For too long, crypto tools have been built ‘by nerds and for nerds’.”

Cai echoed that view from the trading side

“The infrastructure works, liquidity exists, and demand is proven—but advanced trading tools still feel intimidating to many users,” she said.

As crypto enters its next phase, success will increasingly depend on clarity and simplicity. Platforms that make powerful tools feel intuitive and safe are likely to capture sustained usage.

In 2026, the crypto narratives that matter most may be the ones users barely notice—because they simply work.

The post What are the Top Crypto Narratives Worth Paying Attention to in 2026? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Ethereum Nears $3,000 as Bitmine Expands Holdings to 4 Million ETH

24 December 2025 at 06:00

Ethereum is once again attempting to reclaim the $3,000 level after several failed efforts this month. ETH briefly pushed higher during early trading but continues facing resistance amid fragile broader market conditions. 

Despite muted momentum, on-chain data suggests investors may be positioning to support a potential recovery.

Ethereum Holders Continue To Grow

Ethereum’s network growth has surged to a four-year and seven-month high. This metric reflects the pace at which new addresses are joining the network. The increase signals renewed interest at current price levels, even as ETH struggles to break higher.

Rising network growth often introduces fresh capital. New participants expand liquidity and strengthen demand foundations. For Ethereum, this trend is particularly important as price recovery depends on sustained inflows rather than short-term speculative trading. Strong address growth suggests long-term confidence remains intact.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Ethereum Network Growth
Ethereum Network Growth. Source: Santiment

Bitmine Could Be Aiding Price Recovery

A major contributor to this growth is Bitmine. The firm has quickly accumulated Ethereum through its treasury strategy. Bitmine now holds approximately 4.066 million ETH, representing 3.37% of the total supply within six months.

The company has publicly targeted ownership of 5% of all ETH, a move that could further tighten circulating supply and support price appreciation.

Macro indicators present a mixed backdrop. The MVRV Long/Short Difference remains at low negative levels, indicating neither long-term holders nor short-term traders are currently in profit. This lack of profitability often slows transaction activity, as participants hesitate to move assets at a loss.

Low profit conditions can suppress velocity across the network. However, such environments also reduce sales pressure. If broader macro conditions improve, long-term holders typically act as stabilizers. Their reluctance to sell at unfavorable prices can provide a base for recovery when demand returns.

Ethereum’s current setup reflects this balance. Weak profitability limits enthusiasm, yet it also prevents aggressive distribution. A positive external catalyst could shift sentiment quickly, allowing stronger hands to absorb supply and push ETH higher.

Ethereum MVRV Long/Short Difference
Ethereum MVRV Long/Short Difference. Source: Santiment

ETH Price Faces Its Challenge

Ethereum trades near $2,968 at the time of writing, sitting just below the $3,000 resistance. The level has capped price action repeatedly in recent weeks. Continued failure to reclaim it keeps ETH vulnerable to volatility and short-term pullbacks.

To revisit December’s high of $3,447, ETH requires a recovery of roughly 16%. The first hurdle remains $3,131, a key resistance zone. Sustained network growth and continued accumulation by large entities like Bitmine could provide the buying pressure needed to reach this level.

ETH Price Analysis.
ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Downside risks persist if Ethereum fails to secure $3,000 as support. A rejection could send the price back toward $2,798, a level previously tested. Given ETH’s tendency for sharp moves in this range, a breakdown could accelerate losses before stability returns.

The post Ethereum Nears $3,000 as Bitmine Expands Holdings to 4 Million ETH appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Three Financial Giants Predict Why Crypto Faces Its Hardest Test Yet in 2026

24 December 2025 at 05:30

This year, crypto looked less like an experiment and more like a maturing market, shaped by institutional consolidation, faster-moving regulation, and growing macroeconomic pressure. 

As the industry moves toward 2026, its direction will depend on which assets can withstand institutional scrutiny and how recession risk, monetary policy shifts, and stablecoin adoption reshape crypto’s place within the dollar-based financial order.

Institutional Capital Forces Crypto Consolidation

Throughout 2025, BeInCrypto spoke with veteran investors and leading economists to assess where the crypto industry is headed and what lies ahead for a sector long defined by uncertainty.

Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary starts from a simple premise. As institutional capital moves in, crypto shifts away from endless token hunting and toward a narrow set of assets that can justify long-term allocation.

He pointed to his own experience as a case study. O’Leary began as a crypto skeptic, but as regulation started to take shape, he chose to gain exposure.

At first, that meant buying broadly. His portfolio grew to 27 tokens. He later concluded that the approach was excessive. Today, he holds just three cryptocurrencies, which he said are more than enough for his needs.

“If you statistically look at the volatility of just Bitcoin and Ethereum and a stablecoin for liquidity… That’s all I need to own,” O’Leary told BeInCrypto in a podcast episode.

For O’Leary, each asset serves a specific function. He described Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, often comparing it to digital gold defined by scarcity and decentralization. 

Ethereum, by contrast, serves not as a currency but as core infrastructure for a new financial system, with long-term growth tied to its technology. Stablecoins, he noted, were held for flexibility rather than upside.

🦈 Kevin O’Leary says Ethereum is not just a trend but a market shift.

What drives this shift: scalability, trust, or something bigger? pic.twitter.com/yLV5sE7Bhi

— BeInCrypto (@beincrypto) September 9, 2025

That framework informs his outlook for 2026. As regulation advances and institutional participation deepens, O’Leary expects capital to concentrate around Bitcoin and Ethereum as the market’s core holdings. Other tokens will struggle to justify sustained allocation and will compete largely on the margins.

In that environment, crypto investing shifts away from speculation and toward disciplined portfolio construction, closer to how traditional asset classes are managed.

But even as investors narrow their holdings, the issue of who ultimately controls crypto’s monetary rails is becoming more complicated.

Dollar Control Moves Onchain

While investors like O’Leary focus on narrowing exposure, Greek economist and former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis pointed to a different shift.

In a BeInCrypto podcast episode, he argued that control over crypto’s monetary infrastructure is tightening, particularly as stablecoins move under closer state and corporate oversight.

Varoufakis pointed to recent US policy as a turning point. By advancing legislation such as the GENIUS Act, Washington is embracing a stablecoin-based extension of the dollar system. Rather than challenging the existing financial order, stablecoins are being positioned to reinforce it.

Wall Street’s next move to control crypto https://t.co/ixPa4ZoOZh

— Yanis Varoufakis (@yanisvaroufakis) October 30, 2025

He linked this approach to the logic of the so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, which seeks to weaken the dollar’s exchange value while preserving its dominance in global payments. That contradiction sits at the center of his concern.

Varoufakis warned that this model outsources monetary power to private issuers, increasing financial concentration while reducing public accountability. The risks, he said, extend beyond the US, as dollar-backed stablecoins spread across foreign economies.

“As we speak, there are Malaysian companies, Indonesian companies, and companies here in Europe that increasingly use Tether… which is a huge problem. Suddenly, these countries… end up with central banks that do not control their money supply. So their capacity to effect monetary policy diminishes and that introduces instability,” Varoufakis said in a BeInCrypto podcast episode.

Looking ahead to 2026, he described stablecoins as a systemic fault line. 

A major failure could trigger a cross-border financial shock, exposing crypto’s deepest vulnerability, not volatility, but its growing entanglement with legacy power structures.

These risks remain largely theoretical in calm conditions. The real test comes when growth slows, liquidity tightens, and markets begin to strain.

Former economic advisor to Ronald Reagan, Steve Hanke, warned that such a stress test is approaching.

Economic Slowdown Stress Tests Markets

In a BeInCrypto podcast episode, the Johns Hopkins professor of applied economics said the US economy is heading toward a recession, driven not by inflation but by policy uncertainty and weak monetary growth.

Hanke pointed to inconsistent tariff policy and expanding fiscal deficits as key drags on investment and confidence. 

“When you have that, investors that are investing in, let’s say, a new factory or something, hunker down and say, ‘well, we’re going to wait and let the dust settle to see what’s going to happen.’ They stop investing,” Hanke said.

As economic conditions deteriorate, Hanke expects the Federal Reserve to continue to respond with looser monetary policy.

He did not address crypto directly. His macro outlook, however, defines the conditions under which crypto will be tested.

Tight liquidity followed by sudden easing has historically exposed weaknesses across financial markets, particularly in systems reliant on leverage or fragile confidence.

For crypto, the implication is structural rather than speculative. 

In an environment shaped by recession risk and policy volatility, stress reveals what growth conceals. What endures is not what expands fastest, but what is built to withstand contraction.

The post Three Financial Giants Predict Why Crypto Faces Its Hardest Test Yet in 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Russia Plans New Crypto Regulation for 2026

24 December 2025 at 04:30

The Central Bank of Russia unveiled a long-awaited conceptual framework to regulate crypto trading on December 23, marking a decisive shift from ad-hoc restrictions toward a structured, licensed market.

Under the proposal, cryptocurrencies and stablecoins will be legally recognized as currency values that can be bought and sold. However, they remain prohibited as a means of payment inside Russia. 

What the New Framework Introduces

The central bank submitted its legislative proposals to the Government of Russia for review.

The announcement marks the largest effort yet to bring crypto activity under formal financial supervision, while maintaining strict controls on retail risk and capital flows.

The proposal establishes a two-tier investor model, separating retail and professional participants.

Non-qualified investors will be allowed to purchase only the most liquid cryptocurrencies, as defined in future legislation. 

Access will require passing a mandatory risk-knowledge test, and purchases will be capped at 300,000 rubles per year.

Qualified investors will face fewer restrictions. They will be permitted to buy any cryptocurrency except anonymous tokens whose smart contracts conceal transaction data. 

Volume limits will not apply, although risk-awareness testing remains mandatory.

The central bank emphasized that cryptocurrencies remain high-risk instruments, citing volatility, lack of sovereign backing, and sanctions exposure.

Russia is leading Europe in crypto use, over $376B moved in a year, says Chainalysis.

While others talk about regulation, Russians are actually using crypto for real needs; trading, saving, and moving money fast.

Quiet adoption, big numbers. pic.twitter.com/2XcmYx8ioB

— Tom Tucker (@WhatzTheTicker) October 16, 2025

How This Differs From Russia’s Current Stance

Until now, Russia’s crypto policy has been fragmented. Ownership and trading were legal in practice but lacked a clear regulatory pathway. 

Retail access operated in a gray zone, intermediaries faced uncertainty, and enforcement relied on informal restrictions rather than explicit market rules.

The new concept formalizes what was previously tolerated, while sharply narrowing how retail investors can participate. 

It also confirms that Russia will regulate crypto activity through existing financial infrastructure, allowing exchanges, brokers, and trust managers to operate using their current licenses. Additional requirements will apply to crypto-specific depositaries and exchange services.

The framework also clarifies cross-border rules. Russian residents will be allowed to buy crypto abroad using foreign accounts and transfer crypto overseas through Russian intermediaries, provided they notify tax authorities.

Timeline and Enforcement

The central bank plans to finalize the legislative base by July 1, 2026. From July 1, 2027, illegal crypto intermediation will trigger liability comparable to penalties for illegal banking activity.

This phased approach gives market participants time to align with licensing, disclosure, and compliance requirements.

How Russia’s Approach Compares Globally

AreaRussia (BoR Concept)EU (MiCA)United States
Legal statusInvestment asset (“currency value”), not paymentRegulated crypto marketFragmented federal & state oversight
Retail accessAllowed with testing and strict capsAllowed via disclosure regimeBroad, no federal caps
IntermediariesExisting licenses + added crypto rulesMandatory CASP licensingMulti-agency framework
StablecoinsTradable, payment banHeavily regulatedFederal stablecoin law in place
EnforcementPhased, starts 2027Already activeOngoing agency enforcement

Overall, Russia is not liberalizing crypto in the Western sense. 

Instead, it is moving crypto out of the gray market, tightening supervision, limiting retail exposure, and positioning regulated crypto trading as an extension of its traditional financial system.

The post Russia Plans New Crypto Regulation for 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Solana Eyes Recovery as Investors Quitely Accumulate $345 Million Worth of SOL

24 December 2025 at 04:00

Solana slipped out of last week’s consolidation after failing to sustain upside momentum, delaying a recovery toward $150. SOL has since traded cautiously, awaiting stronger confirmation. 

Recent on-chain and institutional activity suggests investors are positioning for a rebound, potentially setting the stage for renewed price strength into year-end or early January.

Solana Holders Have The ETF Leash

Solana’s ecosystem is introducing a novel catalyst through on-chain “Creator ETFs,” also known as Bands, launched via Bands.fun. These products differ from traditional exchange-traded products. They operate directly on the Solana blockchain as programmable portfolios curated by creators, analysts, or influencers.

Creator ETFs can bundle tokens or NFTs and rebalance automatically based on a predefined rule. Increased adoption could lift on-chain activity and transaction volume. Higher network usage often supports price recovery by strengthening demand for SOL as a utility asset.

Institutions See Potential

Exchange balance data adds another constructive signal. Solana balances on centralized exchanges have dropped sharply over the past 10 days. During this period, investors accumulated roughly 2.65 million SOL, valued at $345 million.

Declining exchange balances typically indicate accumulation rather than distribution. Holders appear willing to move assets into self-custody, reducing immediate sell pressure. This behavior suggests confidence in Solana’s longer-term outlook and supports the case for stabilization following recent weakness.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Solana Exchange Balance
Solana Exchange Balance. Source: Glassnode

Institutional sentiment toward Solana remains resilient despite broader market uncertainty. CoinShares’ weekly report shows SOL attracted $48.5 million in inflows for the week ending December 20. Month-to-date inflows now stand at $117.6 million.

These allocations indicate sustained institutional interest. Professional investors often accumulate during consolidation phases. Continued inflows can help offset retail selling and provide a foundation for recovery when market conditions improve.

Solana Institutional Flows.
Solana Institutional Flows. Source: CoinShares

SOL Price Is Aiming At Recovery

Solana trades near $124 at the time of writing, sitting below the $126 resistance. The combination of on-chain innovation, exchange outflows, and institutional inflows could support a recovery attempt by late December or early January.

A break above $126 would be an initial confirmation. Reclaiming $130 would further strengthen sentiment. The key upside target sits near $136. Clearing this level would signal progress toward recouping losses recorded earlier this month.

Solana Price Analysis.
Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Downside risks persist if selling resumes or broader markets weaken. Solana’s price dropping below $123 could expose the $118 support. Losing that level would invalidate the bullish thesis and delay any recovery driven by ecosystem or institutional catalysts.

The post Solana Eyes Recovery as Investors Quitely Accumulate $345 Million Worth of SOL appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Chinese Groups Have Transformed Telegram into the Dark Web of Crypto Scams

24 December 2025 at 02:30

Chinese-language networks operating on Telegram have become the backbone of the world’s largest illicit crypto economy. 

These groups have surpassed the dark web in fusing scams, AI-driven deception, and money laundering into a single, industrial system.

Telegram Markets Now Dwarf Historical Dark Web Giants

The scale is unprecedented. Elliptic data shows Huione Guarantee, later rebranded as Haowang Guarantee, processed $27 billion between 2021 and 2025. 

That figure exceeds every major dark web market in history.

Over recent years, we've supplied @okx with crypto threat intelligence via multiple channels, and their compliance progress is notable.

Data shows a significant decrease in risky USDT deposits from Huione&Tudou Guarantee.

We will continue monitoring this. @star_okx pic.twitter.com/f7zHpzra8j

— Bitrace (@Bitrace_team) October 15, 2025

After Telegram banned Huione in May, activity migrated. Two markets now dominate:

  • Tudou Guarantee: roughly $1.1 billion per month
  • Xinbi Guarantee: roughly $850 million per month

Combined monthly volume now surpasses what AlphaBay processed over its entire lifetime.

Why Telegram Replaced the Dark Web

Telegram offers public channels, escrow-like systems, and instant global reach. Users need no Tor browser or technical knowledge.

Markets recreate classic darknet features:

  • Vendor reputation systems
  • Escrow and dispute resolution
  • Stablecoin settlement
  • Rapid rebranding after bans

In practice, Telegram has become a “dark web without friction.”

Be careful ⚠️⚠️⚠️

a FAKE telegram channel is trying to scam Smardex holders

There is NO V3 migration,
DO NOT FALL FOR SUCH SCAM

the official updates can ONLY be received through their website https://t.co/Ghz45GSSnI, their X: @SmarDex and their official TG (its link is in… pic.twitter.com/cESr07yx4e

— Crypto Feras  (@CryptoFeras) November 5, 2025

Crypto Scam Markets Feed a Global Fraud Industry

These markets do not sell drugs or weapons at scale, but they sell scam infrastructure.

The primary customer base is the pig-butchering scam industry. These long-term romance and investment scams generate roughly $10 billion annually from US victims alone, according to federal data.

Operations are concentrated in Southeast Asia. Many rely on trafficked labor held in scam compounds.

Telegram markets provide:

  • Money-laundering services
  • Fake investment platforms
  • Stolen identities
  • Telecom and social-engineering tools

The scam economy and the markets grow together.

AI Face-Swap Tools Supercharge Fraud

A key accelerant is artificial intelligence. Chinese-language Telegram groups actively sell:

  • Real-time face-swap software
  • Voice-cloning tools
  • Deepfake identity kits

These tools allow scammers to impersonate real people on video calls. They dramatically increase trust and conversion rates.

Threat analysts describe this as the industrialization of social engineering. Scams now operate with assembly-line efficiency.

Look at this, what appears to be a SCAM site that is fully AI generated.

What is the government doing to stop these? Nothing at all?

All that talent going toward scamming new crypto users… on Twitter, Telegram, etc.

www_youtube_com/@cryptotopstories <– SCAM!!!… pic.twitter.com/HG1w0Lkx3e

— Jae Kwon – "godfather of proof-of-stake" (@jaekwon) November 22, 2025

USDT Is the Financial Backbone

Nearly all transactions settle in Tether (USDT). Unlike decentralized cryptocurrencies, USDT can be frozen. That capability exists but is rarely used at scale.

As a result, the most centralized stablecoin underpins the largest illicit crypto markets ever recorded. This dependency concentrates risk across scams, money laundering, and cross-border fraud.

Telegram has removed major markets before. Each time, replacements emerged within weeks.

Ownership stakes shift between markets. Liquidity follows instantly.

Elliptic tracks roughly 30 Chinese-language Telegram markets today. Together, they move tens of billions of dollars annually, mostly through crypto. 

Enforcement pressure remains fragmented and inconsistent.

Overall, this is no longer a niche cybercrime story.

Public messaging platforms now host global illicit finance at scale. Language-based networks matter more than geography; tools are reshaping fraud economics.

The result is a criminal ecosystem larger than anything the dark web ever produced. And it operates in plain sight.

Without a coordinated platform, stablecoin, and law-enforcement action, this system will keep growing.

The post Chinese Groups Have Transformed Telegram into the Dark Web of Crypto Scams appeared first on BeInCrypto.

XRP Sentiment Has Collapsed — And That May Be the Setup Bulls Are Waiting For

24 December 2025 at 02:00

XRP price has quietly slipped into an uncomfortable spot. The price is down about 9% over the past 30 days, momentum feels stale, and positive social chatter around the token has turned noticeably sour. At first glance, that looks like weakness. But XRP has a history of doing its best work when enthusiasm disappears.

This time, the problem dragging sentiment lower may also be the exact condition that sets up the next move. Possibly led by a key holder group.

The Problem: Positive Sentiment Collapses as Short-Term Holders Exit

The core issue is not price. It is sentiment.

XRP’s positive social sentiment has dropped to a three-month low, falling sharply from recent highs. This metric tracks how often XRP is discussed positively across social platforms. When it collapses, it signals crowd fatigue rather than panic buying.

History shows this matters.

In mid-October, a similar sentiment drop preceded a rally of roughly 15% over the following days. In early November, another local low in positive sentiment was followed by a 17% advance within a week. Late November showed the same pattern, with prices rising about 14% after sentiment hit a trough.

Collapsing Positive Sentiment: Santiment

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This time, the sentiment drop is deeper than those prior lows.

😨 XRP is seeing far more negative social media commentary than average. Historically, this setup leads to price rises. When retail has doubts about a coin's ability to rise, the rise becomes significantly more likely.

🔗 Monitor $XRP sentiment here: https://t.co/hYbezd8qH0 pic.twitter.com/FOcIlRb9BQ

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 22, 2025

That sentiment dip could be powered by the short-term holders. HODL Waves, which track how long coins have been held, show that wallets holding XRP for one day to one week have reduced their supply share sharply. This cohort held about 2.97% of the supply earlier this month. That figure has now fallen to roughly 1.18%, a drop of more than 60%.

Short-Term Cohorts Fueling The Lack Of Positivity
Short-Term Cohorts Fueling The Lack Of Positivity: Glassnode

In simple terms, fast, possibly retail, money has lost interest and moved on. That is the problem weighing on XRP sentiment. The next section highlights why it isn’t such a bad thing.

The Solution: Long-Term Holders Are Selling Less, Not More

Here is where the story changes.

While short-term holders are exiting, long-term holders are doing the opposite. Data tracking long-term holder net position change shows that selling pressure from these wallets has dropped meaningfully.

Earlier this month, long-term holders were selling roughly 216 million XRP per day. That figure has steadily fallen to about 103 million XRP, a reduction of more than 50% in selling activity.

Long-Term XRP Holders Doing The Opposite
Long-Term XRP Holders Doing The Opposite: Glassnode

This matters because long-term holders tend to act early, not late. When they slow distribution during periods of weak sentiment, it often signals quiet accumulation or strategic patience.

The problem for XRP is crowd apathy. The solution is that experienced holders are no longer feeding supply into that apathy.

XRP Price Levels That Decide Whether the Solution Works

If this sentiment-driven setup plays out again, the XRP price levels will confirm it quickly.

An initial move toward the next resistance at $2.03 implies an upside of roughly 8% from current levels. Clearing that zone would open room for a larger push toward the next resistance bands, $2.09 and $2.17, where prior rallies stalled.

On the downside, XRP must hold its key support at $1.77. A breakdown there would invalidate the sentiment-driven thesis and signal that long-term holders are no longer absorbing supply.

XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, the structure remains intact.

XRP’s biggest problem is that positive sentiment has vanished. But history shows that when optimism disappears, weak hands leave first and strong hands step in. If that pattern repeats, the same problem weighing on the XRP price today could become the solution that unlocks its next move.

The post XRP Sentiment Has Collapsed — And That May Be the Setup Bulls Are Waiting For appeared first on BeInCrypto.

US GDP Surprise Signals Trouble for Altcoins, Not Bitcoin

24 December 2025 at 00:58

The latest US GDP report delivered a strong economic signal—but for crypto markets, especially altcoins, it may be bad news.

Data released on December 23 showed the US economy growing faster than expected in Q3, reinforcing the idea that monetary conditions may stay tighter for longer. While Bitcoin remains relatively resilient, broader crypto markets are flashing warning signs.

US GDP Growth Beats Expectations

The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3, well above the market forecast of 3.3% and higher than the previous 3.8% reading.

The year of the tariff is powering America’s economy as real GDP accelerated to a 4.3% annualized rate and exports rose to an 8.8% SAAR in the third quarter.

This is just the beginning of new era of economic prosperity thanks to President Trump’s trade program unlocking new… pic.twitter.com/kWeBtxQ7aN

— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) December 23, 2025

At the same time, core PCE inflation rose to 2.9%, up from 2.6%, remaining sticky above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Also, Real personal consumption expenditures jumped 3.5%, far exceeding expectations of 2.7%.

In simple terms, Americans are still spending aggressively, and inflation pressures have not cooled enough for policymakers to declare victory.

Why Strong Growth Is a Problem for Crypto

Stronger-than-expected growth reduces the urgency for interest-rate cuts.

Combined with recent CPI data and still-elevated inflation expectations from the University of Michigan survey, the GDP report strengthens the case for higher-for-longer rates in 2026.

For risk assets like crypto, that matters because:

  • Higher rates increase the return on cash and bonds.
  • Liquidity becomes more selective.
  • Speculative assets struggle to attract new capital.

This environment historically pressures altcoins more than Bitcoin.

The US economy has now been in an expansion for 65 months with annualized real GDP growth of 4.3% over that time.
The average expansion length since 1949: 67 months.
Longest: 128 months.
Shortest: 12 months. pic.twitter.com/QE6WnhhMA5

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 23, 2025

Bitcoin Holds Better Than Altcoins

Market reaction following the GDP release reflected this dynamic.

Bitcoin remained relatively stable near $87,800, down modestly on the day but still holding key structural levels. Its market cap stayed above $1.75 trillion, showing limited panic selling.

Altcoins, however, underperformed sharply:

  • Ethereum fell over 3% on the day.
  • Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin dropped between 3%–6%.
  • Mid-cap and small-cap tokens saw deeper losses with weaker recoveries.

This divergence highlights Bitcoin’s role as a liquidity sink during macro uncertainty.

Crypto MACD Confirms Bearish Breadth

Momentum indicators reinforce the concern.

According to CoinMarketCap’s normalized MACD, 68% of tracked crypto assets are now in negative momentum. The average market MACD sits at –0.16, firmly in bearish territory.

Most assets below the $10 billion market-cap range remain deeply negative.

When momentum weakens across the market, capital tends to retreat toward fewer, more liquid assets—again favoring Bitcoin over altcoins.

Average Crypto MACD. Source: CoinMarketCap

Why Altcoins Are More Exposed

Altcoins rely heavily on cheap liquidity, retail inflows, and risk-on sentiment. Strong GDP growth combined with persistent inflation reduces all three.

With US consumers still spending but facing higher costs, disposable income for speculative investment may shrink in early 2026. 

Institutions, meanwhile, remain cautious amid Bank of Japan risks and global rate uncertainty. That combination creates a difficult environment for altcoins to sustain rallies.

What This Means For Crypto Markets Going Into 2026

The GDP report does not signal an immediate crypto crash. However, it raises the probability of prolonged consolidation or downside pressure, particularly outside Bitcoin.

If macro conditions remain unchanged:

  • Bitcoin may continue to range rather than collapse.
  • Altcoins could face extended drawdowns.
  • Market leadership may narrow further.

Overall, strong US economic data is no longer bullish—it is a liquidity warning.

The post US GDP Surprise Signals Trouble for Altcoins, Not Bitcoin appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Whales Add $3 Million in AAVE as Governance Uncertainty Pressures Price

24 December 2025 at 00:00

The AAVE price has been under steady pressure. The token is down nearly 5% over the past 24 hours and more than 18% over the past seven days. That weakness has played out alongside ongoing DAO governance disputes and renewed sell-off fears.

On the surface, this looks like a distribution. Exchange balances are rising, and sentiment has cooled. But under the hood, something does not line up. While supply is moving toward exchanges, large holders have quietly stepped in, treating the sell-off as an entry point rather than an exit. The question now is simple. What bullish setup are whales positioning for while the market focuses on governance risk?

Exchange Supply Rises as Governance Pressure Lingers

Aave’s sell-off did not appear out of nowhere. Governance tensions have been building for weeks, creating uncertainty around revenue flows and DAO control. That uncertainty has shown up clearly in on-chain supply data.

🚨 @aave is having a full blown civil war

And it might be the biggest governance fight defi has ever seen.

Heres a clean breakdown 👇

Aave has two sides:
– Aave labs → a centralised entity founded by stani
– Aave dao → token holders who govern the protocol

Now heres what… pic.twitter.com/zFnhcN5vSc

— Observe (@obsrvgmi) December 22, 2025

Since December 16 (Poison Pill proposal day), AAVE supply on exchanges has climbed from roughly 1.22 million tokens to about 1.42 million tokens. That is an increase of nearly 200,000 AAVE, or roughly 16%, in just over a week.

Aave DAO Faces Governance Clash Over Control of Aave Labs 👀

An AAVE token holder has proposed a controversial “poison pill” strategy that would allow the Aave DAO to seize control of Aave Labs’ intellectual property, brand, and equity, effectively turning the company into a DAO… pic.twitter.com/SC1gd1KYhs

— Karon (@pangestu_karon) December 18, 2025

Rising exchange balances usually signal potential selling pressure, and the price action confirms that concern, with AAVE sliding almost 18% over the same period.

Exchange Balances Grow
Exchange Balances Grow: Santiment

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This shift is notable because it reverses what happened earlier in the month, on December 16. When Aave’s regulatory overhang eased in mid-December, exchange balances dropped sharply as confidence improved. Now, with governance issues dragging on, supply has moved back toward exchanges, reinforcing near-term caution.

On its own, this setup looks bearish. But the exchange supply is only one side of the market.

Whales Buy the Dip as Sell-Off Fears Peak

While exchange balances have increased, large holders have moved in the opposite direction.

Over the past 24 hours, Aave whales increased their holdings by 12.63%, bringing their total stash to 183,987 AAVE. That implies fresh accumulation of roughly 20,600 tokens, worth about $3.1 million at current prices.

At the same time, public figure wallets, which include verified funds and well-tracked entities, raised their holdings by 13.55%, lifting their balance to 274,652 AAVE. That increase represents roughly 32,700 tokens, or about $5 million.

AAVE Whales
AAVE Whales: Nansen

Combined, these two cohorts added more than 53,000 AAVE in a single day. At the current price, that is over $8 million accumulated directly into weakness.

This divergence matters. When exchange supply rises, but whales accumulate, it often reflects short-term fear being absorbed by longer-term conviction. Instead of reacting to governance noise, large holders appear to be positioning around structure, not headlines.

That brings us to the chart.

The Bullish AAVE Price Trigger Whales Are Positioning For?

The price action provides the missing link.

AAVE has repeatedly defended the $147 zone, forming the head of a developing inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern typically signals a possible trend reversal after prolonged downside pressure, especially when it forms during elevated fear.

The structure remains compressed under a descending neckline line, meaning sellers still control the broader trend. But the trigger is clear. A decisive move above $182 would begin to shift momentum. Clearing $193 would confirm the breakout and open upside toward $207, then $232, with $248 as the larger recovery target.

AAVE Price Analysis
AAVE Price Analysis: TradingView

The risk is equally defined. If AAVE loses $147, the bullish structure breaks. That would likely invite renewed selling pressure, with downside risk toward $127. For now, whales appear to be betting that support holds, and structure resolves higher.

The post Whales Add $3 Million in AAVE as Governance Uncertainty Pressures Price appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Received before yesterday BeInCrypto

Ethereum Price is Overheated Due to New Holders Hitting 5-Month High

22 December 2025 at 09:30

Ethereum continues to struggle near the $3,000 level as repeated recovery attempts lose momentum. ETH trades just below this psychological barrier, reflecting cautious sentiment. 

While investor interest is rising, on-chain activity remains muted. This imbalance is raising concerns that Ethereum’s price may be overheating without sufficient network usage to sustain gains.

Ethereum Holders Are Rising

Ethereum is recording a steady rise in new wallet creation. The network now averages about 163,000 new addresses per day. This compares with roughly 124,000 daily additions during July, previously considered a peak period for network growth.

The increase highlights strong investor curiosity around Ethereum despite weak price performance. Growing wallet creation suggests demand for exposure remains intact. However, new addresses alone do not guarantee price strength.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Ethereum Network Growth
Ethereum Network Growth. Source: Santiment

Macro indicators present a mixed picture. Ethereum’s network value-to-transactions ratio is rising sharply. The indicator currently sits at a 16-month high, signaling potential overheating conditions.

A high NVT ratio suggests market valuation is growing faster than transaction activity. Optimism around recovery appears to be driving interest, but real usage has yet to follow. Without increased on-chain activity, price advances risk stalling as valuation outpaces fundamentals.

Ethereum NVT Ratio
Ethereum NVT Ratio. Source: Glassnode

ETH Price Is Yet To Find Strength To Escape

Ethereum trades near $2,986 at the time of writing, sitting just below the $3,000 resistance. This level has been tested repeatedly in recent sessions. Failure to break above it has reinforced caution among traders watching for confirmation.

ETH may continue consolidating below $3,000 or briefly breach it without holding support. If transaction activity remains weak, downside pressure could return. In that case, the $2,798 support may be tested again, reflecting unresolved macro imbalances.

ETH Price Analysis.
ETH Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Improving conditions could shift the outlook. A rise in transaction volume would help Ethereum secure $3,000 as support. Holding that level could open a path toward $3,131. A sustained break beyond this barrier would invalidate the bearish thesis and allow ETH to target $3,287, restoring confidence.

The post Ethereum Price is Overheated Due to New Holders Hitting 5-Month High appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Chinese Crypto Twitter Reads Santa Rally as a Litmus Test for 2026

22 December 2025 at 09:20

The Santa Rally—Wall Street’s beloved year-end tradition—has found an eager audience among Chinese crypto Twitter’s most followed analysts.

Far from dismissing it as Western-market folklore, key opinion leaders in the Chinese-speaking community are treating the final trading days of 2025 as a critical signal of what lies ahead in 2026.

Santa Rally More Than Seasonal Noise

Phyrex, one of the most cited macro analysts in Chinese crypto circles, argues that the Santa Rally is not merely a statistical curiosity. “It’s more like a barometer of market risk appetite,” he wrote. “If markets manage to rise as expected from Christmas through New Year—without fresh macro catalysts—it confirms that investors are still willing to allocate to risk assets, setting the emotional foundation for next year’s pricing.”

The flip side carries weight, too. A failed rally, Phyrex warns, often signals that risk appetite has not recovered, leaving markets vulnerable to weakness or choppy trading well into January and beyond.

The analyst points to several mechanical factors that typically support year-end gains. Tax-loss harvesting wraps up by mid-December, freeing capital to rotate back into equities. Institutional desks go quiet for the holidays, thinning out volumes and allowing modest buying pressure to move indices higher. Year-end bonuses and automatic 401(k) contributions add passive bid support.

Michael Chao, a US-focused markets commentator popular on Chinese Twitter, highlighted the historical odds: since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time during the Santa Rally window, posting an average gain of 1.55%.

But Risks Loom Large

Not everyone is popping champagne early. Cryptojiejie noted that Bitcoin and Ethereum global volumes have shrunk to 2025 lows, calling current conditions “garbage time” for traders. She advised breakout-focused traders to step back and enjoy the holidays until liquidity returns.

Macro headwinds add to the caution. Zhou Financial wrote that the Bank of Japan’s December rate hike to 0.75% has raised concerns about the unwinding of the yen carry trade, while the Federal Reserve’s hawkish 25-basis-point rate cut—paired with a dot plot signaling only two cuts through 2026—disappointed markets that had expected more accommodation.

Phyrex framed the tension bluntly: “If the market still can’t form an effective rally under seasonal tailwinds and gradually recovering liquidity, it likely means the current high-rate environment’s pressure on the economy has already overwhelmed the sentiment boost from holiday factors.”

The 2026 Preview

For Phyrex, this year’s Santa Rally carries outsized significance. He sees it as effectively a preview of Q1 2026 expectations. The logic is straightforward: if investors refuse to bid up risk assets even when seasonal patterns, sentiment vacuums, and returning liquidity all align in their favor, something deeper may be broken.

The intense focus on Wall Street may partly reflect a lack of domestic options. Earlier this month, seven major Chinese financial industry associations issued a joint risk warning—the most comprehensive crypto crackdown since the 2021 ban that drove all exchanges out of the country.

The statement explicitly prohibited real-world asset (RWA) tokenization for the first time, alongside stablecoins, airdrops, and mining. With regulators sealing off virtually every on-ramp, Chinese crypto investors have little choice but to watch global markets from the sidelines.

As Chinese crypto Twitter watches Wall Street just as closely as anyone else, all eyes are on whether Santa shows up.

The post Chinese Crypto Twitter Reads Santa Rally as a Litmus Test for 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

San Francisco Blackout Reveals Crypto’s Dependence on Power Infrastructure

22 December 2025 at 08:07

A massive power outage hit San Francisco on Saturday afternoon, leaving 130,000 homes and businesses without electricity. The incident forced residents to face technology’s fundamental vulnerabilities. Caused by a fire at a PG&E substation, the blackout cut off access to digital wallets and cryptocurrency exchanges for thousands of users.

The event highlights how, despite the resilience of decentralized blockchain networks, practical crypto usability still relies on local electricity and internet infrastructure.

San Francisco’s Power Crisis: Scale and Impact

The outage began at 1:09 pm, affecting about one-third of PG&E customers in San Francisco. The disruption focused on the Richmond District and spread across the city. By 11 p.m., power had been restored to roughly 95,000 customers, but nearly 18,000 remained without electricity Sunday afternoon.

The incident disrupted city transit, halted Waymo robotaxis mid-ride, and forced the closure of many restaurants and shops. The scale caught many off guard. As one observer noted on social media, nearly 30% of the city lost power overnight—no storm, no warning, no clear accountability.

Blockchain Networks Endure Local Outages

The blackout offers a timely reminder: even decentralized technologies remain tethered to centralized infrastructure.

Cryptocurrency networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum operate on distributed ledgers maintained by thousands of nodes worldwide. A regional blackout, even one affecting a major tech hub like San Francisco, does not halt the blockchain itself. Transactions continue to be validated, blocks continue to be added, and user assets remain safely recorded on-chain.

In short, your crypto doesn’t disappear when the lights go out.

However, the practical reality is less reassuring. Without electricity and internet access, affected users cannot access wallets, execute trades, or complete payments. Crypto-accepting merchants face the same limitation—no power means no point-of-sale systems.

Mining operations, which require substantial and continuous power, halt immediately during outages. If a blackout affects a region with significant hash rate concentration, network validation could slow temporarily.

For those mid-transaction when power fails, the outcome depends on timing. Unconfirmed transactions remain in the mempool and will be processed once connectivity returns. Confirmed transactions are immutable and unaffected.

Exchange Infrastructure Keeps Crypto Trading 24/7

Major crypto exchanges have developed strategies for uninterrupted trading during power disruptions. Based on industry analysis, exchanges use layered defenses, including uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), backup generators for extended outages, and redundant data centers with automatic failover protocols.

If a main facility fails, trading shifts instantly to another healthy region. Data replication between centers ensures zero data loss and maintains transaction integrity during crises.

Asset security is vital during blackouts. Most holdings are in cold storage, offline, and far from network risks. Hot wallets—used for current trading—are limited and protected by multi-signature protocols and withdrawal limits. Regular drills and continuity plans ensure exchanges continue to operate during extended failures.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation has documented infrastructure standards for crypto operations. A white paper notes that cryptocurrency facilities require complex internal infrastructure, including UPS systems and generators, to ensure resilience.

These efforts underscore the divide between decentralized network design and the traditional infrastructure required for practical access. However, while blockchains survive regional outages, the services that connect users depend on power and connectivity investments.

The Hardware Wallet Paradox

Security-conscious holders often store assets in hardware wallets, keeping private keys offline and protected from network-based attacks. This remains sound practice. But the blackout reveals an uncomfortable truth: hardware wallets are secure, yet without power, users cannot access them either.

The device itself is safe. The assets are intact. But the owner sitting in a dark apartment cannot verify balances, sign transactions, or move funds to respond to market conditions. Security and accessibility exist in tension during infrastructure failures.

Offline seed phrase backups ensure eventual recovery, but they offer no help in the immediate crisis. For crypto to function as a reliable financial tool, users must plan for scenarios where even their most secure storage becomes temporarily unreachable.

Decentralized, But Not Independent

The San Francisco outage underscores a fundamental tension in cryptocurrency’s value proposition. Decentralization protects the network from single points of failure at the protocol level. But end-user access still depends entirely on electricity, internet connectivity, and functioning local infrastructure—the same dependencies as traditional digital payments.

Some projects are exploring alternatives. Blockstream‘s satellite network broadcasts Bitcoin blockchain data globally, enabling node synchronization without traditional internet access. Such solutions remain niche but point toward greater infrastructure independence.

What This Means for Users

The incident carries practical lessons for crypto holders. Diversified backup plans matter: mobile hotspots, portable battery packs, and knowing which local areas might retain power. When evaluating exchanges, infrastructure redundancy and disaster recovery capabilities should be considered alongside fees and token listings.

But perhaps the most honest takeaway is this: blockchain networks survive blackouts, but user access does not. Until that gap closes, crypto remains a fair-weather financial tool—resilient in theory, unreachable when it matters most.

The post San Francisco Blackout Reveals Crypto’s Dependence on Power Infrastructure appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Cardano’s Midnight Token Hits New All-Time High Amid a 50% Rally

22 December 2025 at 07:39

Midnight has extended its sharp rally as strong investor demand pushed the token to a new all-time high. The project associated with Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson continues to attract attention after sustaining upside momentum. 

While NIGHT has already delivered outsized gains, technical and macro signals suggest additional upside potential remains.

Midnight Holders Are Watching A New Sunrise

Investor support for NIGHT remains firm. The Chaikin Money Flow sits in positive territory above the zero line, confirming net inflows. Although the indicator dipped slightly over the past 48 hours, capital continues entering the asset, signaling ongoing confidence rather than distribution.

Much of this demand is linked to Midnight’s association with Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano. That connection has boosted credibility and visibility.

In the short term, this narrative-driven interest is likely to keep capital rotating into NIGHT, supporting elevated price levels.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

NIGHT CMF
NIGHT CMF. Source: TradingView

Macro conditions also favor NIGHT’s performance. The token shows a weak correlation with Bitcoin, insulating it from broader market uncertainty. This independence has allowed NIGHT to trend higher even as Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum.

Low correlation often benefits emerging assets during periods of BTC consolidation. With Bitcoin lacking a clear recovery signal, NIGHT’s ability to move on its own fundamentals remains a key advantage. This dynamic could continue supporting relative outperformance in the near term.

NIGHT Correlation To Bitcoin
NIGHT Correlation To Bitcoin. Source: TradingView

NIGHT Price Forms New All-Time High

Midnight price surged 42.7% over the past 24 hours, trading near $0.093 at the time of writing. The rally resulted in a new intraday all-time high of $0.096. Momentum remains strong, reflecting aggressive buying and sustained interest following the breakout.

Bullish sentiment and favorable macro conditions support further upside. If current trends persist, NIGHT could push beyond the $0.100 level. Entering the 10-cent range would mark a psychological milestone, potentially drawing additional speculative interest and reinforcing momentum.

NIGHT Price Analysis.
NIGHT Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Risks remain if holders begin taking profits. A wave of selling could pull NIGHT back toward the $0.075 support. Losing that level would weaken the bullish structure. Further downside could extend to $0.060, invalidating the current bullish thesis and increasing volatility.

The post Cardano’s Midnight Token Hits New All-Time High Amid a 50% Rally appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Bitcoin Critical Holders’ Profit Crashes To Monthly Low: Will Price Further Suffer?

22 December 2025 at 06:27

Bitcoin has shown mixed price action in recent sessions, marked by sharp fluctuations and tentative recovery attempts. BTC rebounded after a brief breakdown, yet momentum remains fragile. 

A key concern is weakening confidence among one of Bitcoin’s most influential cohorts, which could complicate efforts to sustain a broader price recovery.

Bitcoin Holders Witness A Dip In Gains

Bitcoin long-term holders have increased selling activity over the past several days. On-chain data shows the 30-day change in long-term holder supply has dropped to a 20-month low.

Similar levels were last recorded in April 2024, signaling elevated distribution pressure.

This behavior suggests long-term holders are reducing exposure to protect remaining gains. As unrealized profits shrink, selling accelerates to avoid losses. Such actions often weigh on price recovery, as supply increases without a matching rise in new demand.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bitcoin LTH Position Change
Bitcoin LTH Position Change. Source: Glassnode

Macro indicators provide additional context. The long-term holder net unrealized profit or loss metric has declined to a monthly low. This drop indicates profits among this group are eroding, increasing sensitivity to further downside moves.

Historically, falling LTH NUPL readings trigger defensive selling. However, once the indicator declines further, selling pressure often slows.

At those levels, long-term holders typically pause distribution, allowing Bitcoin price to stabilize and potentially recover if demand improves.

Bitcoin LTH NUPL
Bitcoin LTH NUPL. Source: Glassnode

BTC Price Is Awaiting Stronger Cues

Bitcoin trades near $87,900 at the time of writing, remaining below the $88,210 resistance. The asset recently bounced after briefly slipping under the $86,247 support. This recovery shows buyers are still active at lower levels, though conviction remains cautious.

A short-term climb toward $90,308 remains possible. However, resistance near that level could cap gains. Given ongoing long-term holder selling, Bitcoin may continue consolidating near the $88,201 zone while the market absorbs excess supply.

Bitcoin Price Analysis.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Upside potential improves if long-term holders shift their stance. A slowdown in selling could reduce overhead pressure.

In that scenario, Bitcoin may break above $90,308 and target $92,933. Such a move would invalidate the bearish thesis and signal renewed confidence among key market participants.

The post Bitcoin Critical Holders’ Profit Crashes To Monthly Low: Will Price Further Suffer? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Reports Spark Questions About Bitmain Leadership and Internal Disputes

22 December 2025 at 04:50

Posts on X (Twitter) suggest that Bitmain co-founder Micree “James” Zhan Ketuan may be facing a billion-dollar fine, alleged detention, and a complete fallout with business partner Jihan Wu.

Conflicting reports leave the crypto community scrambling to verify the details of one of the sector’s most high-profile crises.

Bitmain Co-Founders at Center of Growing Speculation and Uncertainty

Bitmain, a pioneer in Bitcoin mining hardware, controls equipment powering over 74% of the global Bitcoin hash rate. It is also responsible for chips used in AI data centers running Nvidia H100s.

The company now finds itself at the intersection of geopolitics, legal scrutiny, and internal corporate strife.

On December 21, 2025, crypto veteran Chandler Guo sparked speculation with a cryptic social media post referencing an industry colleague’s “deep-sea fishing” ordeal. The term is used to describe covert detention in China, worth several billion dollars over six months.

According to Guo, while the individual emerged safely, he had learned a hard lesson that even the biggest backers are not reliable. When they fall, their associates suffer as well.

“There’s an old friend from the crypto circle by my side who just went through an experience of being deep-sea fished. It’s said to involve several billion US dollars, and he’s been dealing with it for half a year. Fortunately, the person has already safely come out of it…He relied on his backer’s connections to strike down his opponents, but he also got bitten back by the backer’s own enemies,” wrote Guo.

Observers quickly connected Guo’s account to Zhan. Rumors circulating in crypto circles indicate fines ranging from $1 billion to $10 billion, though none have been officially confirmed.

Some reports claim Zhan paid a $1 billion penalty, while others allege he fled to Indonesia two months ago and remains missing. A Chinese community lead, popular on X, confirmed two key developments:

  • Recent disruptions in Xinjiang’s mining operations and
  • Escalating internal conflict between Bitmain’s co-founders.

Dual CEO System Collapses Amid Founder Conflict

Bitmain’s dual CEO structure, which allowed both Zhan and Wu to lead the company, collapsed completely in 2025. Wu, a Peking University graduate, reportedly used political connections to challenge Zhan, a Chinese Academy of Sciences alumnus who focused on chip design and production.

Their rift mirrors broader industry risks, demonstrating the dangers of intertwining business with influential backers.

This alleged internal upheaval comes as Bitmain faces mounting external pressures. While Zhan historically focused on technical operations, Wu has led strategic partnerships and business development.

The absence of either founder could leave operational gaps at a time when Bitmain remains central to Bitcoin mining worldwide. The firm is already facing a lawsuit from Old Const alleging breach of a hosting deal and attempts to reclaim mining hardware without cause.

Geopolitical Risks and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

Beyond corporate disputes, Bitmain faces scrutiny from US authorities over potential hardware security threats. In June, Bitmain and two other firms relocated to the US to bypass new tariffs and optimize supply chains.

However, with the company’s mining infrastructure embedded in both crypto and AI data centers, national security concerns amplify the stakes.

Any compromise could ripple through global Bitcoin networks, highlighting crypto’s ongoing vulnerability to geopolitical tensions.

Recent crackdowns on Xinjiang mining farms, combined with Zhan’s alleged detention, have fueled speculation of coordinated regulatory pressure.

The crypto sector remains vigilant, as the situation could impact mining hardware markets, supply chains, and competitive dynamics.

The post Reports Spark Questions About Bitmain Leadership and Internal Disputes appeared first on BeInCrypto.

IMF Q2 2025 COFER Data Weakens Dedollarization Narratives Cited as Bullish Catalysts for Bitcoin

22 December 2025 at 03:36

The US dollar’s global reserve share dropped to 56.32% in Q2 2025, but 92% of that decline was driven by exchange-rate effects, not central bank portfolio changes. Currency adjustments show a marginal decline to just 57.67%, indicating central banks largely maintained their USD holdings.

The International Monetary Fund’s new Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) report provides important insights for crypto investors tracking macroeconomic trends. The data reveals that central banks kept dollar allocations steady, even amid notable currency swings during the quarter.

IMF: Central Banks Stayed Dollar-Heavy Despite Depreciation

The IMF’s COFER dataset tracks currency reserves from 149 economies in US dollars. In Q2 2025, major currency movements gave the impression of large portfolio reallocations.

According to the report, the DXY index declined by more than 10% in the first half of 2025, its biggest drop since 1973.

The US dollar declined 7.9% against the euro and 9.6% against the Swiss franc in Q2. These swings lowered the USD reserve share from 57.79% to 56.32%. However, this reduction reflected exchange-rate effects rather than active reallocation.

Adjusted for constant exchange rates, the dollar’s reserve share edged down only 0.12% to 57.67%. This indicates that central banks made minimal changes to their dollar reserves during the quarter, challenging stories of global dedollarization.

Similarly, the euro’s reserve share appeared to rise to 21.13%, an increase of 1.13 points. Yet, this was also driven entirely by currency valuations.

At constant exchange rates, the euro’s share declined slightly by 0.04 points, showing central banks actually trimmed euro holdings.

IMF COFER data exchange rate effects on reserve shares Q2 2025
IMF bar chart showing exchange rate valuations explain almost all the change in the US dollar’s reserve share in Q2 2025, attributed to IMF

What This Means for Bitcoin and Altcoins

This analysis offers muted macro signals for Bitcoin and other digital assets marketed as hedges against US dollar weakness. Central banks did not diversify away from the dollar even as the currency depreciated significantly.

Dedollarization trends are often highlighted as possible drivers of institutional adoption of crypto. However, the COFER data, once adjusted for exchange rates, suggest that these trends can be misleading without proper context.

The British pound also saw its reserve share appear to grow in Q2, but this was another valuation effect covering up a real decrease in holdings. These findings demonstrate why investors should look beyond headline numbers to understand the actual shifts in liquidity.

The IMF’s study provides investors a more accurate view of monetary policy during volatile markets. By distinguishing between true policy moves and temporary valuation changes, crypto investors can better evaluate global macro trends.

Central Bank Reserve Strategies and Outlook

Dollar holdings remained stable in Q2 2025, showing central banks still rely on traditional currencies even as digital alternatives gain attention. The IMF emphasized that exchange-rate adjustments are crucial for understanding reserve shifts accurately.

The US dollar’s share of global foreign reserves held steady in Q2, after adjustment for currency fluctuations. Exchange-rate effects drove nearly all the decline in the US currency’s share of reserves. Our blog has the details. https://t.co/XtaRfBIbqL pic.twitter.com/fXcUkRkg7U

— IMF (@IMFNews) December 21, 2025

Central banks prioritize liquidity, returns, and risk when managing reserves. The dollar’s strong position is linked to deep markets, high transaction utility, and established systems. These aspects are still hurdles for digital assets to overcome.

The IMF’s methodology reveals how currency changes can distort reserve data. In Q2, nearly all reported shifts in major currencies resulted from valuation swings, not actual portfolio rebalancing. Central banks maintained a careful stance during the market’s turbulence.

These findings help clarify global trends shaping crypto markets. Investors interested in dedollarization as a Bitcoin catalyst should rely on exchange-rate-adjusted numbers.

The post IMF Q2 2025 COFER Data Weakens Dedollarization Narratives Cited as Bullish Catalysts for Bitcoin appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Analysts Look Beyond Bitcoin’s Price As Tom Lee Flags a Structural Shift

22 December 2025 at 01:39

Bitcoin’s price may still dominate headlines, but among analysts and institutional strategists, attention is quietly shifting elsewhere.

Instead of debating whether Bitcoin can reclaim upside momentum in the near term, market observers are increasingly focused on a deeper question: whether the structural signals that once reliably guided Bitcoin’s four-year cycle are beginning to fracture.

Analysts Are No Longer Looking at Bitcoin Price As Demand Signals Quietly Deteriorate

The shift comes on the backdrop of fading demand indicators, rising exchange flows, and a growing divide between analysts.

On the one hand, some believe Bitcoin is entering a traditional post-peak correction. On the other hand, others argue that the pioneer crypto may be breaking free from its historical cycle altogether.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades argues that recent price behavior has already challenged one of Bitcoin’s most dependable seasonal assumptions.

“BTC Looking ahead, Q1 is generally a good quarter for Bitcoin, but so was Q4, and that one didn’t quite work out this time. No doubt 2025 has been a very messy year. Massive inflows and treasury accumulation, which were matched by big OG whales and 4-year cycle selling. Q1 2026 is where Bitcoin has a chance to show whether the 4-year cycle persists or not,” he wrote.

Rather than signaling a definitive breakdown, the underperformance suggests friction. ETF inflows and corporate accumulation are being absorbed by long-term holder distribution, muting the impact those inflows once had on BTC price.

That structural tension is also visible in US spot market data. According to Kyle Doops, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium, often used as a proxy for US institutional demand, has remained negative for an extended period.

The Coinbase $BTC premium has stayed negative for 7 straight days, now around -0.04% per Coinglass.

That usually signals U.S. spot demand is lagging the rest of the market.

Less aggressive institutional buying, softer risk appetite, and capital staying cautious.

Not panic, but… pic.twitter.com/HtjNSorO1I

— Kyledoops (@kyledoops) December 21, 2025

The message is not capitulation, but hesitation, which means capital is present, yet unwilling to chase.

Exchange Flows Point to Distribution, Not Accumulation

On-chain data highlights the need for cautious interpretation, as Bitcoin exchange inflows surge to levels historically associated with late-cycle behavior.

“Monthly exchange flows have surged to $10.9 billion, the highest since May 2021. High exchange flows like this signify increased selling pressure, as investors move assets onto exchanges to liquidate positions, take profits, or hedge against downturns. This is further evidence of a market top and the start of a bear market amid heightened volatility,” said analyst Jacob King.

Historically, similar spikes have coincided with profit-taking phases rather than early accumulation periods.

Monthly Exchange Flow
Monthly Exchange Flow. Source: CryptoQuant

If History Holds, Cycle Math Still Points Lower with Institutions Split but Disciplined

On-chain analyst Ali Charts argues that despite structural changes, Bitcoin’s timing symmetry remains striking.

“Bitcoin’s price cycles have followed a strikingly consistent pattern, both in timing and magnitude. Historically, it takes around 1,064 days from the market bottom to the market top, and about 364 days from the top back to the next bottom,” he wrote, outlining how previous cycles adhered closely to that rhythm.

If that pattern persists, the analyst suggests that the market may now be inside its corrective window. Historical retracements imply further downside before a durable reset.

At the institutional level, views are diverging without turning chaotic. Fundstrat’s Head of Crypto Strategy Sean Farrell acknowledged near-term pressures while maintaining a longer-term bullish framework.

“Bitcoin is currently in a valuation ‘no man’s land’,” Farrell said, citing ETF redemptions, selling by original holders, miner pressure, and macro uncertainty. Still, he added, “I still expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new all-time highs before the end of the year, thereby ending the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter, smaller bear market.”

The Cycle Debate Is Now Institutional

That possibility is echoed by Tom Lee, whose view has been amplified across crypto commentary, suggesting that Bitcoin will soon break its 4-year cycle.

TOM LEE THINKS BITCOIN WILL BREAK THE 4-YEAR CYCLE SOON! pic.twitter.com/eWZdW7xkgW

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) December 21, 2025

Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer takes the opposite stance. According to Lark Davis, Timmer believes Bitcoin’s October peak marked both a price and time top, with “2026… a down year” and support forming in the $65,000–$75,000 range.

"The bear market is here and Bitcoin is heading down to $65,000"

That's what Fidelity's director of global macro Jurrien Timmer thinks.

While Jurrien is bullish on $BTC in the long term, he believes that Bitcoin is once again following its historical 4-year cycle driven by its… pic.twitter.com/KFPcBWTcZP

— Lark Davis (@LarkDavis) December 21, 2025

Together, these perspectives show why analysts are no longer fixated solely on Bitcoin price. The pioneer crypto’s next move may not decide who was bullish or bearish, but whether the framework that has defined its market for over a decade still applies at all.

The post Analysts Look Beyond Bitcoin’s Price As Tom Lee Flags a Structural Shift appeared first on BeInCrypto.

❌