XRP price has fallen almost 10% over the past month despite a slight 1.5% gain this week. The price remains locked inside a $2.31–$1.98 range, failing to secure any meaningful breakout. This tension reflects a split in market behavior: whales are selling into strength while key holder groups continue accumulating.
The push and pull between these two sides is keeping the XRP price inside a falling wedge that has yet to confirm a bullish reversal.
Whales Trim While Key Holder Groups Resist the Pressure
Whale activity shows a clear shift toward caution.
Wallets holding 100 million–1 billion XRP cut their balances from 8.32 billion to 8.27 billion, starting December 7. Another group holding 10–100 million XRP reduced its supply from 11.01 billion to 10.99 billion on December 8. Together, they offloaded about 70 million XRP over the past 48 hours, worth roughly $143 million at the current price.
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The selling is not dramatic in token terms, but it arrives at a sensitive moment — exactly when XRP is trying to stabilize. This sell pressure helps explain why every breakout attempt has stalled before gaining momentum.
The counterforce comes from short- and mid-term holders, and this shows up clearly on HODL Waves. HODL Waves track how much XRP is held in each “coin age band,” showing how long tokens remain unmoved.
The one-to three-month group increased from 8.52% to 10.31%. The three-to six-month group rose from 9.40% to 10.87%.
These holders typically accumulate when they believe selling pressure is easing. Their buying into a 10% monthly decline suggests they expect the wedge structure to resolve to the upside eventually.
That tension is holding the XRP price inside the same narrowing structure.
XRP Price Pattern Shows a Stalemate as Buyers and Sellers Pull in Opposite Directions
XRP is forming a falling wedge, a pattern that usually favors bullish reversals — but only if buyers can force a decisive breakout. Right now, the wedge is functioning more as a stalemate, with whale selling capping momentum and accumulating holders preventing deeper downside.
The breakout point sits near $2.46, where the descending trendline meets current price action. The XRP price needs a strong daily close above this level to confirm a reversal. If that happens, upside targets sit at $2.61, $2.83, and $3.11.
While price trades between $2.31 and $1.98, the wedge remains valid. A break below $1.98, however, weakens the pattern and exposes $1.82, a level that served as structural support earlier in the cycle.
For now, the outlook is simple: Whale selling delays the breakout. Mid-term accumulation keeps the structure alive. The wedge will not resolve until one side overwhelms the other.
[Victoria, Seychelles, 9 December 2025] BitMEX, one of the safest crypto exchanges, announced today the launch of fiat-to-crypto on-ramps on its platform through a partnership with Mercuryo, a global payment infrastructure platform.
The introduction of this feature will enable users on the exchange to purchase cryptocurrency using a variety of fiat currencies.
The availability of Mercuryo’s on-ramps on BitMEX will simplify the onboarding of new users, streamlining the process of converting fiat assets such as USD into digital tokens to use for trading on the platform.
Payment methods accepted via the BitMEX-Mercuryo integration include credit cards, bank transfer, Apple Pay, and Google Pay. More than 30 fiat currencies are supported through the integration, available to traders in all eligible jurisdictions*.
The integration will allow user accounts to be credited with their chosen cryptocurrency in a matter of minutes. With the payment gateway directly integrated into BitMEX, users can convert their fiat into crypto to support their trading on BitMEX’s spot and futures markets, including bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL).
“The integration of Mercuryo’s on-ramps on the BitMEX platform provides our users with a robust and intuitive means of converting fiat into the cryptocurrency of their choice,” said Raphael Polansky, Chief Growth Officer at BitMEX. “The user experience (UX) is everything in crypt,o and Mercuryo has proven expertise in delivering an optimum on-ramp experience.”
“The integration of Mercuryo’s on-ramps gives BitMEX traders the convenience of a trusted gateway wrapped in a familiar interface,” said Petr Kozyakov, Co-Founder and CEO at Mercuryo. “This is an important step towards enhancing the trading experience for millions of BitMEX’s global users.”
For more information on the new fiat-to-crypto conversion feature on BitMEX, visit this page.
About BitMEX
BitMEX is the OG crypto derivatives exchange, providing professional crypto traders with a platform that caters to their needs through low latency, deep crypto native liquidity, and unmatched reliability.
Since its founding, no cryptocurrency has been lost through intrusion or hacking, allowing BitMEX users to trade safely in the knowledge that their funds are secure. So that they have access to the products and tools they require to be profitable. BitMEX was also one of the first exchanges to publish its on-chain Proof of Reserves and Proof of Liabilities data. The exchange continues to publish this data twice a week, proving assurance that they safely store and segregate the funds they are entrusted with.
Mercuryo is a first-mover and innovator in the fast-evolving Web3 space, providing a variety of payment solutions along with integrated on-chain functionality. Mercuryo’s intuitive solutions are simplifying the experience for newcomers to the digital token space. Since 2018, Mercuryo has proudly partnered with industry leaders such as MetaMask, Trust Wallet, Ledger, 1inch, PancakeSwap, and more, with plans to expand further as we continue to innovate with our stack of products.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opens its December 2025 session today, with the decision set for release tomorrow, December 10, at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Investors and traders are watching closely to see whether the central bank will continue its easing cycle or surprise markets by holding rates steady. As the final policy announcement of the year, the outcome carries considerable weight for crypto markets.
The Rate Cut Scenario: What Happens if the Fed Delivers a 25 bps Cut in December
As the announcement nears, market expectations are leaning heavily toward a rate cut, with a 25-basis-point move seen as the most likely outcome. Data from CME FedWatch shows traders assigning an 89.4% chance to a quarter-point cut at the December 10 meeting.
In contrast, only about 10.6% of market participants believe the Fed will keep rates at the current 3.75%-4.00% range.
Fed Rate Cut Odds in December. Source: CME FedWatch
If the Fed proceeds with a cut, it would be the third in a row this year, following the adjustments in September and October. This would bring the interest rate down to 3.50%–3.75%.
September’s cut triggered a brief lift in the crypto market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum posting gains. At the same time, the US dollar dropped to its weakest level since early 2022.
Nonetheless, the broader market downturn muted the impact of the October cut. In December, volatility remains elevated, with sharp swings in both directions.
Still, many analysts argue that another cut at this stage would likely be viewed as “bullish” for crypto.
“If you think this is not bullish for Bitcoin and risk assets, you are not paying attention. Prepare for volatility. Prepare for green candles,” an analyst said.
For cryptocurrencies, such a standard adjustment is viewed as mildly bullish, as it enhances liquidity and encourages investment in risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Nonetheless, Crypto Rover explained that markets have already adjusted to that outcome, so the actual announcement is unlikely to cause a big reaction.
According to the analyst, the real catalyst for market movement will be Powell’s press conference, not the rate cut itself.
“Bank of America expects Powell to hint at ‘reserve management purchases,’ meaning fresh liquidity injections to stabilize small-bank funding stress. This would help normalize SOFR and support liquidity across markets. If Powell sounds dovish and says that inflation is calming, tariffs haven’t changed the trend, and labor is softening, it’ll give markets the green light to expect more cuts. But if he sounds hawkish, similar to the last FOMC meeting, Bitcoin and alts will dump,” he remarked.
Meanwhile, some investors are even expecting a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
This would be a strong policy signal, leading to rapidly expanding liquidity and further weakening of the dollar. While the probability of this scenario is low, it would likely have a stronger positive impact on crypto markets.
The No-Rate-Cut Scenario: Why a Fed Hold Could Hit Crypto Sentiment
Although few analysts predict it, the possibility that the Fed will hold rates cannot be ruled out. The rate decision arrives against a backdrop of disrupted economic indicators. The government shutdown halted key data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This scarcity has left Fed officials working with limited visibility.
“What do you do if you’re driving in the fog? You slow down,” Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said in October.
The Fed itself remains split. Powell has noted that policymakers are seeing pressure from both sides of the central bank’s mandate. After the last rate cut, the Chairman dampened hopes for further easing in December.
“There were strongly different views about how to proceed in December. A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it,” he said.
If this happens, crypto markets could likely react bearishly in the short term. A hold would temporarily weigh on sentiment and delay any bullish momentum that a cut might have triggered.
Despite the risks, long-term trends may still benefit crypto markets. Reports say the Fed intends to buy $45 billion in Treasury bills a month beginning January 2026. This policy could boost financial system liquidity can drive investment into risk assets.
“This would inject massive liquidity into the markets. This only means one thing: QE is coming back. But this time they won’t call it QE,” Lark Davis stated.
Whether the Fed announces the widely expected 25-basis-point cut, surprises with a bigger reduction, or holds rates, its decision is likely to cause significant volatility in crypto markets. The subsequent press conference and forward guidance from Chair Powell will also play a key role, as traders focus on the outlook for future policy.
With deep roots in onchain privacy, Horizen has successfully migrated to Ethereum as a Layer-3 blockchain on Base for privacy-enabled and regulatory-ready applications.
Horizen has officially launched its mainnet as an EVM-native rollup on Base, marking its full transition from an independent proof-of-work blockchain to a privacy application-focused chain within the Ethereum ecosystem. The move positions Horizen as a high-performance infrastructure layer where developers can deploy Solidity-based applications while tapping into Base’s liquidity, developer ecosystem, and compliance-forward approach.
This milestone follows the July 2025 migration of ZEN, Horizen’s native token, from its original mainchain to Base as an ERC-20 asset. With its 21-million token cap preserved, ZEN now trades on decentralized exchanges such as Aerodrome and Uniswap, and legacy token holders can claim their migrated assets through Horizen’s dedicated portal. ZEN is currently available on Binance, Binance US, Coinbase, OKX, Bybit, Bitget & other major exchanges.
Launch partners include leading ecosystem infrastructure providers that enable developers to build robust apps on Horizen from day one: Caldera for rollup-as-a-service, LayerZero for omnichain interoperability, Stork for low-latency oracle feeds, Den for multisig wallet support, and Goldsky for indexing and data streaming.
In July, Horizen introduced a five-year developer funding program in partnership with Thrive Protocol allocating 1 million ZEN tokens (roughly $8.8 million). to support builders creating privacy-first onchain applications. As Horizen opens for business on Base, the initial set of available applications include Hubz VCE and Gamblor, with a robust and steadily expanding pipeline of projects going live shortly after mainnet, including private DeFi and business applications such as privacy-preserving payroll, verifiable online advertising, and loyalty & user engagement.
The shift to Base addresses a central challenge faced by many independent blockchains – limited liquidity and developer reach. As a Layer-3 blockchain, Horizen gains direct access to the EVM ecosystem and Base’s core infrastructure. Developers can now build on Horizen using familiar EVM tooling while benefiting from lower costs, faster finality, and inherited Ethereum-grade security.
By processing most transaction activity within its own network before batching and settling to Base, Horizen enables localized execution and maintains flexibility over gas economics, token policy, and application-layer logic, while relying on Base and Ethereum for final settlement.
From Independent L1 to Ethereum L3
Launched in 2017 as ZenCash, Horizen began as a Bitcoin-style proof-of-work chain with optional privacy features. Over the years, it expanded its technical foundation through Zendoo, a zero-knowledge-based sidechain protocol, and EON, an EVM sidechain that debuted in 2023. These combined experiences have all informed Horizen’s transition away from its legacy infrastructure and to the native EVM landscape.
Bringing Regulatory-Compliant Privacy to Base
Horizen’s next phase focuses on introducing privacy-centric applications and privacy-enhancing tools to the Base ecosystem. Developers will be able to implement selective disclosure for transfers, swaps, and on-chain identity features using standard Solidity frameworks, making privacy a practical option within Ethereum’s DeFi landscape. Through its 5-year, 100M ZEN token developer funding program in partnership with Thrive Protocol, builders are already deploying applications on Horizen.
The network will also integrate with zkVerify, Horizen Labs’ dedicated zero-knowledge proof-verification chain. Applications that depend on intensive zero-knowledge proof validation can offload that computation to zkVerify, which batches and returns compressed verification results to Horizen, cutting gas costs and latency for complex cryptographic operations.
A Familiar Environment for Developers
The new mainnet offers a fully EVM-compatible environment where teams can deploy Solidity contracts, integrate Base’s tools, and leverage the established OP Stack foundation. The combination of fast finality, low fees, and native integration with Base makes Horizen a strong fit for DeFi, SocialFi, gaming, and data-intensive applications that demand scale, flexibility, and privacy utility.
Roadmap
In conjunction with the mainnet launch, the first applications to go live on Horizen demonstrate its privacy-first approach to ecosystem development. Post-launch, ZEN staking will be reintroduced, enabling token holders to participate in network rewards through a new staking mechanism. Horizen Labs will release a builder preview of its Confidential Compute Environment, providing early access to developers building privacy-preserving applications.
In Q1 2026, the Confidential Compute Environment will launch, using Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) to isolate and encrypt computation directly on-chain. This environment will give developers a tool to deploy privacy-preserving applications without learning complex cryptography, thereby enabling secure, private app execution right onchain.
Horizen
Horizen is an EVM-native privacy-first ecosystem on Base, built to power practical, regulatory-compliant private execution for real onchain business activity. Designed for businesses and users that need confidentiality without sacrificing interoperability or compliance, Horizen offers a secure and auditable environment for privacy-centric applications and transactions, supported by an expanding ecosystem. The ZEN token anchors economic participation across Horizen, powering governance, utility, and long-term ecosystem alignment.
About Horizen Labs
Founded in 2019, Horizen Labs is a leading blockchain technology company specializing in zero-knowledge cryptography. Dedicated to scaling decentralized networks, Horizen Labs is elevating blockchain technology to unprecedented levels of efficiency. By focusing on developing next-gen, modular architectures, Horizen Labs is setting new standards for performance, security, and cost-effectiveness. Horizen Labs is trusted by industry giants such as Yuga Labs, Animoca Brands, and Offchain Labs. Additionally, it is the development company engaged by the ApeCoin DAO and Horizen DAO to develop leading projects such as ApeChain and Horizen. Horizen Labs is a globally distributed team with offices in Milan and New York City.
[VILNIUS, Lithuania, Dec. 9, 2025]BTCC, the world’s longest-serving cryptocurrency exchange, today announced the integration of its perpetual futures pairs on TradingView, a charting platform with over 100 million users globally. The integration enables traders to access BTCC’s 400+ futures pairs directly through TradingView’s charting and trading platform.
The partnership addresses our users’ growing demand for seamless trading experiences that combine execution capabilities with advanced market analysis. TradingView, which is recognized for its comprehensive and powerful market analysis features, provides traders with professional charting tools, customizable indicators, and real-time market data.
Through the integration, BTCC users can now react swiftly to market movements, refine their strategies, and execute perpetual futures trades within a single platform.
The integration comes at a time of significant growth for BTCC. The exchange previously announced its Q3 2025 Growth Report, where it recorded $1.15 trillion in trading volume during the quarter and currently offers more than 400 perpetual futures pairs, all of which are now accessible on TradingView.
This move builds on the exchange’s recent momentum, including its partnership with 2023 Defensive Player of the Year and 2x NBA All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr. as global brand ambassador.
“This integration combines TradingView’s analytical tools with BTCC’s range of perpetual futures pairs and deep liquidity,” said Marcus Chen, Product Manager at BTCC.
“Our focus is on equipping traders with the resources they need to execute their strategies effectively, and this collaboration reinforces our commitment to professional-grade derivatives trading experiences.”
Getting Started on TradingView
Users can connect their BTCC accounts to TradingView in three simple steps:
Step 1: On the TradingView platform, log in to your account. Then go to the Chart page and navigate to the Trading Panel section.
Step 2: Select BTCC from the broker list, then click “Connect”.
Step 3: Once connected, traders can instantly trade BTCC’s perpetual futures pairs across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and hundreds of other cryptocurrency pairs directly from the TradingView platform.
This TradingView integration marks another step in BTCC’s continued efforts to deliver a user-centric trading experience. As the industry’s longest-serving crypto exchange, BTCC remains focused on expanding access to professional tools while setting standards for platform reliability and performance.
About TradingView
TradingView is the world’s most popular charting platform and the industry’s forefront for financial visualization solutions. 100M+ traders worldwide use it as the go-to destination to chart, chat, and trade financial markets. TradingVIew’s product portfolio includes best-in-class charts, versatile commercial libraries, a social network, and many more tools for retail and business audiences.
About BTCC
Founded in 2011, BTCC is a leading global cryptocurrency exchange serving over 10 million users across 100+ countries. Partnered with 2023 Defensive Player of the Year and 2x NBA All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr. as global brand ambassador, BTCC delivers secure, accessible crypto trading services with an unmatched user experience.
Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts, warning that a key pillar of recent demand, corporate Bitcoin buying, is likely over.
The bank now believes future gains in Bitcoin will be driven by a single source: exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, a shift that could slow the pace of upside in the years ahead.
Bitcoin’s Pullback ‘Painful but Normal’
In a new note, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, said the bank is pushing back its timeline for Bitcoin reaching $500,000 and lowering its year-end price targets for 2026 through 2029.
“While the recent Bitcoin price decline has been rapid, we think it is within expected bounds. However, further corporate buying of Bitcoin is unlikely, as valuations no longer support it. This leaves ETF buying, which may be slower than earlier expected, to drive price gains from here. We lower our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and push out our $500,000 forecast to 2030. Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze,” Kendrick said.
Bitcoin’s recent price action has unsettled investors, but Standard Chartered argues the sell-off fits historical patterns rather than signalling a structural downturn.
Kendrick noted that Bitcoin has fallen around 36% from its all-time high on October 6, a decline comparable to other drawdowns seen since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“The recent price action in Bitcoin (BTC) has been challenging, but the decline, while rapid, falls within ‘normal’ expectations,” Kendrick stated, adding that similar pullbacks have occurred over the past two years.
The timing of the peak has fuelled renewed fears of a crypto winter, with Bitcoin topping roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, a pattern seen in past cycles.
“The timing of the recent losses, the 6 October high was reached 18 months after the April 2024 ‘halving’ of Bitcoin supply, has fed the narrative of a ‘crypto winter’,” Kendrick added.
“We do not share the view that the halving cycle is still valid. Rather, we think longer-term ETF buyers are a much more important price driver,” he noted.
Corporate Bitcoin Buying Losing Steam
The more concerning signal, according to Standard Chartered, is the apparent end of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by listed digital asset treasury companies (DATs).
Kendrick said valuations no longer justify further expansion by these firms, which have played an increasingly visible role in driving demand over the past year.
“That said, price action has forced us to recalibrate our Bitcoin price forecasts. Specifically, we think buying by Bitcoin digital asset treasury companies (DATs) is likely over, as valuations, as measured by mNAVs, the commonly used valuation metric for these companies, no longer support further Bitcoin DAT expansion,” he mentioned
While the bank does not expect widespread selling from these companies, it also does not expect them to underpin prices going forward.
“We expect a consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support,” Kendrick said.
ETF Inflows Will Be A Key Support
With corporate Bitcoin buying fading, Kendrick believes the next phase of Bitcoin’s price trajectory depends almost entirely on ETFs.
“As a result, we think that future Bitcoin price increases will effectively be driven by one leg only, ETF buying,” he remarked.
That shift has prompted Standard Chartered to delay its most bullish projections.
“We therefore lower our year-end price forecasts for 2026-29 and expect Bitcoin to reach our long-term price forecast of $500,000 only in 2030 (versus 2028 previously),” Kendrick highlighted.
Still, the bank maintains its long-term optimism, just on a longer timeline.
“We still think this target is attainable, as portfolio optimisation between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that global portfolios are underweight Bitcoin. Investment access and decision-making by investment committees take time, but we expect them to drive large Bitcoin gains eventually,” he added.
Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the former CEO of Binance, has debunked viral claims that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, filed for a staked Aster (ASTER) exchange-traded fund (ETF).
The link between Aster and CZ stems from CZ’s significant personal investment and public endorsement of the decentralized derivatives exchange, which has sparked massive price rallies and speculation in the past.
Did BlackRock File For An Aster ETF?
A social media post alleging BlackRock had filed for a staked ASTER ETF with the Securities and Exchange Commission went viral on X (formerly Twitter) today. The post included what appeared to be an official S-1 registration document dated December 5, 2024, citing an “iShares Staked Aster Trust ETF” and listing BlackRock’s contact information.
The image spread quickly, leading to speculation about institutional moves regarding ASTER. However, it’s important to note that there is no evidence of such a registration in official SEC filings. The fabricated document closely imitated real SEC filings, making the forgery difficult to detect at first glance.
Still, a closer look at the image reveals it is photoshopped. The description in the document actually refers to the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF, a real filing BlackRock submitted on December 5. Furthermore, the asset manager has made it clear in the past that its current focus on crypto ETFs is limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
CZ also responded promptly to debunk the misinformation. He cautioned his followers that even established crypto opinion leaders can be deceived.
“Fake. Even big KOLs gets fooled once in a while. Aster doesn’t need these fake photoshopped pics to grow,” he wrote.
In November, CZ revealed that he had personally purchased about $2 million worth of Aster tokens as a long-term investment. This triggered a 30% surge in ASTER token’s price.
ASTER Price Slips Despite Buyback Program
Meanwhile, the ASTER token is facing market headwinds despite the project’s latest buyback effort. On December 8, the team announced that it would initiate an accelerated Stage 4 buyback program, increasing its daily purchases to approximately $4 million worth of tokens, up from the previous pace of around $3 million.
“This acceleration allows us to bring the accumulated Stage 4 fees since Nov 10 on-chain more quickly, providing more support during volatile conditions. Based on current fee levels, we estimate reaching steady-state execution in 8–10 days, after which daily Stage 4 buybacks will continue at 60–90% of the previous day’s revenue till the end of Stage 4,” Aster posted.
So far, the move has not translated into upward price momentum. ASTER fell nearly 4% over the past 24 hours, extending recent losses.
The Russell 2000 Index, which comprises approximately 2,000 small-cap companies, has long served as a barometer of investor appetite for growth and high-risk equities. Analysts quickly noticed its correlation with the crypto market.
When risk-on sentiment spreads into the crypto market, it can help push Bitcoin and altcoins higher. The details below illustrate how this dynamic unfolds.
Russell 2000 Flashes a Breakout Signal, Raising Hope for Crypto
If the S&P 500 represents large-cap blue-chip companies, the Russell 2000 focuses on small-cap stocks.
The index is not as famous as the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones. However, it remains important, especially for investors who seek higher risk. This risk appetite aligns closely with many crypto investors.
In December, the Russell 2000 recorded a major turning point when it broke above a long-term resistance level. This move often signals strong upside momentum.
The breakout is considered a clear risk-on signal. This suggests that capital is shifting back to riskier assets, which can serve as fuel for Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins.
The Bitcoin Vector — an institutional Bitcoin report published by Swissblock — noted that in late 2020, the Russell 2000 broke through new highs and later turned that level into support. Bitcoin surged 380% after that.
“Last time this setup appeared, BTC delivered over 390% upside. This time the structure is different, but we’re starting from an environment that precedes liquidity expansion. And when liquidity turns, risk assets take the lead,” Bitcoin Vector stated.
Negentropic, co—founder of Glassnode, added that the Russell 2000 breakout signals a broad return of investors to risk assets.
“Russell 2000 is the biggest indicator for Altseason, and it’s about to hit a new all-time high,” Ash Crypto said.
By comparing the altcoin market capitalization with that of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF — a fund that tracks US small-cap equities — analyst Cryptocium highlighted a correlation. Altcoin market cap (OTHERS) often surges when the iShares Russell 2000 ETF breaks above its previous all-time high.
Altcoin Market Cap vs iShares Russell 2000 ETF. Source: Cryptocium
This pattern has appeared twice: once in 2017 and again in 2021. It now suggests a potential altcoin boom in 2026.
But a Deeper Look Reveals Internal Weakness
A closer look inside the Russell 2000 rally shows a different picture.
Analyst Duality Research noted that, although the index rose in 2025, small-cap ETFs within the index still recorded net outflows of approximately $19.5 billion this year. This contrasts sharply with past rallies, which have typically been accompanied by strong ETF inflows.
The Russell 2000 is up more than 13% year-to-date and over 40% off its April lows, yet small-cap ETFs have still recorded roughly $20 billion in net outflows this year. pic.twitter.com/QEXQ6qIcsn
This perspective weakens the bullish argument for a tight correlation between the Russell 2000 and the crypto market. If risk-on sentiment fails to last and the breakout turns into a false move, that negative shift may spread and extend the bearish mood in the crypto market.
Stablecoin issuers continue to mint new tokens such as USDT and USDC. This expansion is often compared to the spark that ignites major market rallies. However, data shows that the market caps of leading stablecoins have increased for months while the broader crypto market has not grown proportionally.
The following report outlines several reasons behind this mismatch, based on recent data and industry analyses.
3 Reasons Behind the Decoupling Between Stablecoin Growth and the Crypto Market
CoinGecko data shows that the market caps of USDT and USDC reached new highs in December, at $185 billion and $78 billion, respectively.
Both stablecoins have experienced steady growth since the start of the year. By December, Circle and Tether continued to issue aggressively. The latest report from on-chain tracker Lookonchain noted that Tether minted $1 billion and Circle added another $500 million.
Analysts often describe this capital as “dry powder” for the market. Yet the question remains: where has it actually gone?
More Stablecoins Flow Into Derivatives Exchanges Than Spot Exchanges
CryptoQuant data indicate that USDT (ERC-20) on derivatives exchanges has increased consistently since early 2025, rising from below $40 billion to nearly $60 billion.
Meanwhile, USDT (ERC-20) on spot exchanges has been trending downward. It currently sits near yearly lows.
USDC on spot exchanges has also dropped sharply in recent months, falling from $6 billion to $3 billion.
This data reflects a shift in trader behavior. Many prefer short-term opportunities with leverage rather than long-term spot accumulation. This shift makes it harder for altcoin prices to gain upward momentum.
Stablecoins Now Serve Many Purposes Beyond Crypto Investing
Another reason stems from the broader utility of stablecoins. The issuance by Tether and Circle does not solely reflect internal demand for cryptocurrencies. It also reflects demand from the global finance ecosystem.
A new IMF report highlights the widespread use of stablecoins such as USDT for cross-border remittances.
The chart shows that cross-border flows involving USDT and USDC reached approximately $170 billion in 2025.
“Stablecoins could enable faster and cheaper payments, particularly across borders and for remittances, where traditional systems are often slow and costly,” the IMF noted.
As a result, even though supply increases, a substantial portion of capital is absorbed into real-world applications rather than speculation.
Investor Caution Slows Capital Rotation
A third factor is cautious investor sentiment.
A recent Matrixport report describes the current market conditions as lacking retail participation and exhibiting low trading volume. Sentiment indicators remain in “fear” and “extreme fear” territory.
“Simply put, without volume, enthusiasm cannot compound, and without enthusiasm, volume will not return, a classic crypto chicken-and-egg standoff,” Matrixport reported.
This sentiment pushes investors to hold stablecoins instead of deploying them into Bitcoin or altcoins.
Historical data reinforces this view. A comparison of Bitcoin’s price and the market caps of USDT and USDC reveals that, in the first half of 2022, stablecoin supply continued to rise even after the market had entered a bear phase. In late 2022, stablecoin supply dropped sharply as many investors exited the market.
An increase in stablecoin market caps does not automatically translate into higher Bitcoin or altcoin prices. The impact depends heavily on investor sentiment, capital flows, and the broader use cases driving stablecoin demand.
[Abu Dhabi, UAE] Investors, founders, and ecosystem leaders came together for Capital Gathering F1 Abu Dhabi edition – the only high-tech and AI-focused evening of Abu Dhabi’s Formula 1 weekend, where the real conversations happened off the conference floor. BeInCrypto joined as a media partner for Capital Gathering.
Hosted on a private rooftop close to Yas Marina Circuit, Capital Gathering brought together a curated mix of VCs, family offices, and founders across AI, web3, gaming, fintech, and deep tech in Abu Dhabi – the region’s home to some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds and asset managers.
Capital Gathering was co-hosted with key ecosystem partners: NAPKIN, an ADGM-based M&A platform rolling up high-growth digital disruptors toward $500M in revenue and an IPO by 2027, serving brands like Netflix, Nike, Coca-Cola, and P&G; IVPAY, which enables crypto payments for businesses with automatic crypto-to-fiat conversion through a licensed exchange in the UAE; CryptoRobotics, an automated trading platform and gateway to top crypto exchanges for algorithmic traders, operating since 2018; and RACECRAFT.
“Abu Dhabi is no longer just a pit stop; it’s where racing, technology, and capital come together,” said George Zhuravskiy, racing driver and founder of RACECRAFT.
“At Racecraft, we make motorsport more accessible and data-driven through simulation and coaching, and Capital Gathering brought that same energy to founders and investors building what’s next.”
The main event was followed by the Capital Gathering Afterparty, which opened its doors to an extended circle of guests, keeping conversations and connections going late into the night and reinforcing Abu Dhabi’s role as a hub where global capital meets frontier innovation.
Bitcoin’s recent price action shows continued weakness as the asset struggles to find direction amid muted macro signals, presenting a bullish-neutral prediction.
The lack of momentum has kept BTC drifting downward for several days, but the Federal Open Market Committee’s expected 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday could shift sentiment. Whether this becomes a catalyst depends heavily on how short-term holders behave.
Bitcoin Holders Might Present Some Challenge
The STH to LTH Supply Ratio recently rose from 18.3% to 18.5%, breaking above the 17.6% upper band. This signals a growing presence of short-term holders within Bitcoin’s supply mix.
Their presence increases speculative activity, which can boost liquidity but also create sharper intraday swings. The shift highlights a market poised for volatility if conditions change quickly.
This higher ratio also suggests that STHs hold greater influence over Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory. Their tendency to sell when in profit has historically capped recoveries. If the FOMC rate decision triggers a rally, STH behavior will determine whether the momentum sustains or fades.
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Bitcoin’s Percent Supply in Profit has increased from 66.5% to 67.3%, a modest 1.2% gain. While upward movement is positive, the metric remains far below the 98.4% high band typically seen in strong bull phases. This shows that a significant portion of supply is still underwater, reflecting a cautious environment rather than euphoric strength.
Such subdued profitability aligns with early-stage accumulation behavior. Investors appear selective and patient, waiting for stronger macro cues before committing. If the FOMC cut boosts risk appetite, this profitability gap leaves room for expansion and stronger follow-through.
Bitcoin’s price is at $90,399 at the time of writing, sitting just below a downtrend that has persisted for one and a half months. BTC is attempting to flip $90,400 into a support level, which would mark the first step toward reversing the trend.
If macro conditions align and rate cuts revive broader market optimism, BTC could rebound sharply. A clean bounce from $90,400 may drive a retest of $95,000, and breaking that resistance would open a clear path toward the long-anticipated $100,000 level, proving Bitcoin’s price prediction true.
However, if short-term holders sell into strength, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain upward pressure. A rejection from $95,000 or failure to break the downtrend could send BTC back toward $86,822, invalidating the bullish scenario.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum (ETH), has doubled down on its acquisition of ETH in December, highlighting confidence in the asset.
The renewed buying comes despite a tough environment for Ethereum. Rising exchange inflows and ongoing exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows point to short-term pressure across the market.
BitMine Scoops Up 138,452 ETH in a Week, Now Controls 3.2% of Supply
This accounts for over 3.2% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. Furthermore, it puts BitMine two-thirds of the way toward its goal to control 5% of ETH’s supply.
Since adopting ETH as a reserve asset, BitMine has continued to make large-scale purchases. Between June 30 and October 5, BitMine accumulated 2.83 million ETH. Since October 5, it has added another 1.03 million ETH to its holdings.
Ethereum’s weakness throughout the fourth quarter makes BitMine’s steady accumulation even more notable. Since early October, ETH has shed about 24.8% of its value, reflecting persistent downward pressure.
December has offered a small break from that trend. The price has climbed more than 4% since the start of the month, and with it have climbed BitMine’s ETH purchases.
According to BitMine Chairman Tom Lee, the company’s accelerated purchasing activity reflects its confidence that ETH will likely see gains in the coming months, supported by several key catalysts.
These include the Fusaka upgrade, which was activated last week and delivers meaningful improvements to Ethereum’s scalability, security, and overall network efficiency. BitMine also points to the broader macro backdrop, with the Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening and potentially introducing another interest rate cut tomorrow.
Together, these developments form the basis for the company’s view that market conditions could turn more supportive for ETH after weeks of volatility.
“We are now more than 8 weeks past the October 10th liquidation shock event, a sufficient length of time to allow crypto to again trade on forward fundamentals,” Lee added.
Market Conditions Point to Near-Term Volatility
Despite this, on-chain data signals caution. CryptoOnchain noted that Ethereum exchange netflow to Binance has surged. The exchange received 162,084 ETH on December 5, 2025. This was the largest single-day inflow of ETH to the exchange since May 2023.
Large deposits on exchanges often suggest impending sell pressure, since investors typically transfer tokens to platforms before liquidating.
“Given the magnitude of this inflow, market participants should remain cautious. A supply shock of this size, if executed as market orders, could lead to heightened volatility or a short-term price correction,” the analyst stated.
Furthermore, Ethereum exchange-traded funds are also signaling weakened demand. The ETFs experienced a record $1.4 billion in net outflows in November 2025, marking the largest monthly withdrawal on record.
The trend has continued into December. According to SoSoValue, an additional $65.59 million exited ETH-focused ETFs in the first week of the month.
“Historically, ETF flow reversals tell you more about liquidity pressure than about long term fundamentals. When redemptions spike, it’s usually a sign that broader risk sentiment is cracking, not that the asset itself broke. If ETF outflows continue, near term price action stays choppy as liquidity gets drained at the edges,” Milk Road posted.
The ongoing divergence between direct accumulation and ETF redemptions highlights a market split, with retail and institutional players following diverging strategies regarding Ethereum’s outlook.
Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) jumped nearly 100% today, after CoinDesk journalist Ian Allison appeared at Binance Blockchain Week Dubai wearing a vintage Terra Luna logo t-shirt while moderating interviews with executives from Mastercard, Ripple, and TON.
The image circulated across X and Telegram within hours, triggering discussion that the moment felt like a nostalgic revival of one of crypto’s most notorious altcoins.
Journalist Ian Allison Wearing a Terra Luna T-shirt at the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai
Terra Luna Is Back? Not Quite
Traders had already been rotating into LUNC ahead of a scheduled network upgrade supported by Binance.
The exchange confirmed it would pause deposits and withdrawals during the upgrade, signalling strong operational backing from the world’s biggest trading venue.
Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) Price Chart on December 5. Source: CoinGecko
That announcement pushed volume sharply higher, setting the stage for fast speculative flows.
Token burn trackers reported aggressive supply reduction recently, including hundreds of millions of LUNC removed from circulation in the past week. Community messaging amplified the theme, reviving the idea of a shrinking float.
04 December 2025:
Terra Classic $LUNC Max Supply: 6,480,742,753,204 Tokens Burned Previous Day: 83,945,886 (🔴-0.0013%)
This narrative resurfaced at the same moment as Allison’s shirt went viral, reinforcing the perception of a coordinated cultural comeback.
The Do Kwon Effect
The rally also coincides with renewed attention on Do Kwon’s ongoing sentencing proceedings in the United States. Traders view developments toward legal conclusion as a potential reset point, allowing LUNC to trade like a legacy meme asset rather than a distressed one.
As volume spiked and spot markets tightened, the narrative gained traction quickly.
As expected, the DOJ wants a 12-year prison sentence for Do Kwon. Their sentencing submission suggests they don't buy Kwon's apologies, and they attack his attempts to evade blame and cast himself as a victim of Montenegrin officials. pic.twitter.com/Ub8MKk8iiP
Terra’s collapse remains one of crypto’s most dramatic episodes, erasing billions in market value in 2022 and triggering regulatory crackdowns worldwide. Many in the industry still associate the logo with that moment — a symbol of excess, leverage, and systemic failure.
Seeing the design reappear on a main stage alongside established institutions added an unexpected emotional layer to the rally. It represented a strange throwback and also an emotional provocation.
$LUNC just went x2 and added 150 million to its market cap.
Not because of some innovation, not because of fundamentals, but simply because a @IanAllison123 from CoinDesk wore a $LUNC t-shirt on camera.
Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin unraveled three years ago, triggering contagion that spread into lending platforms, hedge funds, and later exchanges. Millions of investors were left underwater, and it drove the biggest crypto winter to date.
Today’s rally simply shows that memory, speculation, and narrative still carry weight in crypto — sometimes more than fundamentals.
As LUNC surged, the sight of that shirt reminded markets how quickly sentiment can swing, even for a project once written off as irrecoverable.
Yi He, who was named Binance co-CEO on Wednesday, offered blunt advice for women navigating the corporate world: drop the soft-skill crutches and build undeniable expertise.
Speaking to reporters in Dubai just hours after her appointment was announced at Binance Blockchain Week, Yi He reflected on what it takes for women to succeed in male-dominated industries.
Professional Excellence Over Gender Advantages
Her message cut against conventional wisdom about leveraging “feminine” strengths—and resonated with a career that took her from a rural village in Sichuan province to the top of the world’s largest crypto exchange.
“The biggest barrier for women isn’t which industry they’re in—it’s the mental ceiling they set for themselves,” Yi He said.
She cautioned against over-relying on perceived gender advantages such as communication skills or likability.
“When you lean on these soft skills, people respect your charm rather than your expertise. That ultimately undermines your professional credibility.”
Her message was unequivocal: in business competition, being female earns no leniency.
“It’s white knife in, red knife out,” she said, using a Chinese idiom for brutal competition. “Nobody slows down because you’re a woman. If anything, the attacks can be harsher.”
The key, she emphasized, is to become the absolute best in your field—whether in marketing, growth, or content—so that colleagues and competitors alike respect your professional capability above all else.
A Consistent Message on Female Leadership
Yi He’s remarks echo views she has expressed before. In a 2023 interview, she urged women to “forget your gender” and focus instead on becoming good business leaders. “Don’t focus on the fact that you’re a woman in a man’s world,” she said. “Never set a limit on yourself.”
Later that year, in another interview, she attributed the underrepresentation of women in leadership to societal expectations that discourage them from pursuing top positions. “Many women do not speak out or pursue leadership positions because they were not encouraged to do so by their families, schools, or friends,” she said at the time.
Her advice then, as now, centered on seizing opportunities proactively. “Women in tech or other new industries can be bolder and take more risks,” she noted. “They will never know what they can do unless they jump into it.”
Dual Leadership for Binance’s Next Chapter
Yi He’s appointment as co-CEO was announced by Richard Teng during his keynote at Binance Blockchain Week, where the co-CEOs outlined an ambitious roadmap for the exchange. The dual leadership structure pairs Yi He’s product innovation expertise with Teng’s background in regulated financial markets.
Teng called her promotion “a natural progression,” highlighting her role in shaping Binance’s user-first culture since its 2017 founding. The exchange now approaches 300 million users and has set a target of one billion.
When asked about the potential influence of the founder and her partner in a long-term relationship, Changpeng Zhao, Yi He drew a clear line:
“My personal life is independent from my professional life. My achievements and capabilities as cofounder are often overlooked with my personal life in question. Binance has nearly 300 million users who trust us for upholding our core values—looking after their interests, protections, and 1:1 backing for every user asset.”
The exchange now approaches 300 million users and has set a long-term target of one billion. Teng said Binance aims to become a “Super App” bridging centralized and decentralized finance. The company is also deepening partnerships with major institutions, including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton. On the compliance front, Binance blocked nearly $7 billion in potential scams in 2025. It continues to pursue regulatory approvals worldwide.
A Maryland man was sentenced to prison this week for helping IT workers linked to North Korea infiltrate US companies.
This incident fits into a wider pattern in 2025, where insider access and rising crypto theft are becoming key features of North Korea’s cyber strategy.
US Jobs Opened to North Koreans
The Justice Department announced on Thursday the sentencing of Minh Phuong Ngoc Vong, an American citizen convicted of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. Prosecutors proved that Vong used false credentials to secure remote software development jobs for North Korean nationals at 13 American companies.
According to public documents, Vong allowed a foreign operator to use his logins, devices, and identity documents to perform the work remotely. The man, who operated from China, is believed to be from North Korea.
One job created a particular risk when a Virginia technology firm hired Vong for work on a Federal Aviation Administration contract in 2023.
— National Security Division, U.S. Dept of Justice (@DOJNatSec) December 4, 2025
The role required US citizenship and granted him a government-issued personal identity verification card. Vong installed remote-access tools on the company laptop. The move allowed the North Korean man to complete the work from abroad inconspicuously.
The company paid Vong more than $28,000, and he sent part of those earnings to his overseas partners. Court filings show he collected over $970,000 across all companies, with most of the work performed by North Korean-linked operatives. Several firms also subcontracted with him for US government agencies, further expanding the exposure.
Vong was sentenced to 15 months in federal prison, followed by three years of supervised release.
In October, blockchain analytics firm Elliptic reported that North Korea-linked hackers had stolen over $2 billion in cryptocurrency in 2025. This figure represents the highest annual total ever recorded.
The overall amount attributed to the regime now surpasses $6 billion. These proceeds are widely believed to support nuclear and missile development.
Most breaches in 2025 began with social engineering rather than technical flaws. Hackers relied on impersonation, phishing, and fabricated support outreach to gain wallet access. The trend highlights a growing focus on human weaknesses over code vulnerabilities.
Taken together, these trends suggest a coordinated approach, with North Korea combining insider infiltration with advanced cryptocurrency theft to expand both its income and operational footprint.
Is Elon Musk’s SpaceX Really Selling Its Bitcoin, Or Is It Just FUD?
SpaceX’s recent Bitcoin transfers have sparked fresh debate across crypto markets, with Twitter speculation claiming the company may be preparing to sell.
However, on-chain data suggests a more nuanced picture, and there is no confirmed evidence of liquidation.
SpaceX Bitcoin Sell Fears
Arkham data shows SpaceX moved around 2,246 BTC in the past 12 hours and one week prior.
The transfers include two large outflows totaling over $200 million, alongside several small inbound transactions from Coinbase Prime.
The Transfer that Sparked SpaceX Bitcoin Sell Rumors. Source: Arkham
The company still holds over 5,012 BTC, valued at roughly $448 million. That means less than half of SpaceX’s tracked Bitcoin has moved, despite viral claims that the company transferred “all” of its holdings.
Crypto Twitter rushed to interpret the outflows as imminent selling. Social media posts argued that fund movement from treasury wallets to new addresses signals a liquidation event, a behaviour often seen before corporate selloffs.
SpaceX is about to SELL all their Bitcoin. They’ve moved it all to an exchange, a move done only when selling. pic.twitter.com/uQ8AAsNCWe
However, the receiving wallets are not labelled as exchanges, and no direct link to Binance, Coinbase or OTC liquidation desks has been confirmed.
This weakens the assumption that the transfers represent a planned dump.
There are also neutral explanations. SpaceX could be rotating wallets for security, consolidating funds, or shifting custody structure. Corporate treasuries regularly rebalance or upgrade storage without selling.
Also, this move could even be interpreted as potentially bullish. Funds may be headed toward OTC desks or multi-sig vaults instead of sell-side liquidity pools, which would apply no immediate market pressure.
SpaceX Bitcoin Holdings. Source: Arkham
Today, Bitcoin has dropped below $90,000 again, but it was mostly driven by US ETF outflows and macro fears from the Bank of Japan increasing interest rates.
For now, SpaceX’s activity is notable, but not conclusive. Until the destination wallets link to a known exchange or distribution pattern appears, the claim that Elon Musk’s space giant is selling Bitcoin remains unproven.
The line between fear and fact is thin, and today, the noise is louder than the data.
With 2026 on the horizon, uncertainty is mounting over whether the crypto market structure bill will sail through early in the year or become mired in a political fight that pushes its passage further down the calendar.
Key unresolved issues continue to slow momentum, including how the bill should address stablecoin yield, conflict-of-interest language, and the treatment of decentralized finance under federal law.
Path to Senate Vote Uncertain
The CLARITY Act cleared the House in July with broad bipartisan support, marking the strongest move yet toward a federal digital asset framework.
The bill now awaits action in the Senate, where the Banking and Agriculture committees are advancing parallel versions of a market-structure framework. The Senate’s split jurisdiction adds complexity, with the Banking Committee overseeing securities, while the Agriculture Committee handles commodities.
Both committees have now published discussion drafts, but a unified package has yet to emerge. Lawmakers still need to reconcile differences before either committee can send a combined bill to the Senate floor.
However, the restriction is narrowly written. It applies only to direct payments from payment-stablecoin issuers and does not explicitly cover reward programs, third-party yield, or other digital asset structures.
The banks demanded the exclusion for yield-bearing stablecoins in the GENIUS Act. Now they're upset that the language they asked for doesn't screw over stablecoin holders hard enough.
Sorry you guys did a bad job negotiating your regulatory moat. Try lobbying better next time! https://t.co/3BbjUxmZlm
Banking groups argue these gaps could allow workarounds and are urging lawmakers to expand the prohibition in upcoming market structure legislation. They want a broader rule that covers all forms of yield associated with stablecoins.
Several senators appear open to that approach, giving the issue significant weight in negotiations. Any expansion would influence how stablecoins compete with traditional bank deposits, which remains a central concern for the banking lobby.
Meanwhile, lawmakers remain divided over how the broader framework should address potential conflicts of interest.
Concerns Over Political Influence Intensify
The involvement of US President Donald Trump and his family members in crypto-related projects has prompted renewed scrutiny of potential ethical concerns.
Some lawmakers, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, argue that new conflict-of-interest language is necessary to ensure that political figures and their relatives are prohibited from engaging in activities that could raise questions about their influence over digital asset policy.
Such measures would help insulate the legislation from perceptions of political interference.
However, the proposed language does not appear in the House-passed CLARITY Act, nor was it included in earlier Senate drafts. Its absence has become a point of debate, and the disagreement is contributing to ongoing hesitation.
The market structure bill is designed for centralized intermediaries, including exchanges, brokers, and custodial platforms. Yet the rapid rise of DeFi introduces questions the Senate has not fully resolved.
First Ken Griffin screwed over Constitution DAO
Now he's coming for DeFi, asking the SEC to treat software developers of decentralized protocols like centralized intermediaries
Bet Citadel has been lobbying behind closed doors on this for years
Current drafts primarily focus on custodial activity. However, some traditional financial institutions are advocating for broader definitions that would classify developers, validators, and other non-custodial actors as regulated intermediaries.
Such an approach would significantly expand federal oversight and reshape the legal environment for open-source development.
Until lawmakers define that boundary, the bill is unlikely to advance. The DeFi question remains one of the key factors shaping when the market structure bill may finally move forward in 2026.
Bitcoin slipped under $90,000 this week as liquidation pressure, weak ETF demand, and macro uncertainty converged.
The fall erased gains from earlier attempts to reclaim the $94,000–$95,000 zone, marking the second major breakdown this month.
Forced Liquidations Across the Market
The catalyst was a cascade of forced long liquidations. Nearly $500 million was wiped out across exchanges, including around $420 million in long positions, and over 140,000 traders were liquidated in a 24-hour window.
US ETF inflows fell to just $59 million on December 3, signalling fading appetite from institutions.
US Bitcoin ETFs Saw Nearly $195 Million Outflow on December 4, 2025. Source: SoSoValue
Macro Pressure Added Fuel to the Drop
The macro backdrop turned hostile. The Bank of Japan signaled a possible rate hike, threatening the carry-trade liquidity that helped sustain global risk assets.
Traders also derisked ahead of the US PCE inflation release, forcing Bitcoin into a cautious $91,000–$95,000 holding pattern.
BREAKING: Bitcoin pumped $1500 on the lower than expected PCE data. But then it crashed -$3500 in 60 minutes.
This wiped out $155 million worth of long positions in last 1 hour.
There is no negative news or sudden FUD which could cause this type of sudden dump.
Miner stress increased as energy costs rose, hashrate fell, and high-cost operators began liquidating BTC to remain solvent.
On-chain flows reflected split sentiment. Matrixport moved more than 3,800 BTC off Binance into cold storage, suggesting accumulation among long-term holders.
However, analysts estimate that a quarter of all circulating supply remains underwater at current prices.
Community Sentiment Shows Fear — With Pockets of Optimism
Traders on social platforms debated whether the move was natural or manipulated. Market analysts largely blamed excess leverage, thin liquidity, and macro-hedging rather than coordinated price intervention.
Bitcoin now trades near a critical pivot. Liquidation clusters between $90K and $86K leave the market vulnerable without renewed ETF inflows or easing macro pressure.
A move back above $96,000–$106,000 is needed to confirm recovery momentum.
For now, volatility rules the tape. Bitcoin has fallen, rebounded, and broken again — and traders are watching for the next decisive move.
DeFi landscape has been marked by impressive growth, yet persistent volatility remains a defining feature as 2025 draws to a close. The ecosystem hit a record $237 billion in total value locked (TLV) in Q3 2025, but the exuberance was short-lived. By late November, the total TVL had contracted by $55 billion, falling to $123 billion.
Despite these sharp fluctuations, DeFi participation has not only held steady but has gone way up. Over 14.2 million wallets were engaged in the ecosystem this year, and Ethereum continues to capture around 63% of all DeFi activity.
This high level of participation can be seen as a testament to DeFi’s potential. However, according to some experts, the volatility has exposed a fundamental challenge: the constant need to react to market conditions, placing success out of reach for most users.
Users have been expected to continuously monitor liquidity ranges, adjust positions, and navigate shifting arbitrage opportunities. This has created a paradox where, despite the claim that money grows on its own, DeFi participants are actually burdened with time-consuming, manual tasks to optimize their returns.
One example of this view is Ron Bodkin, a former Google executive who now leads the team for AI Agent Protocol Theoriq. Bodkin claims that he has watched the burden on everyday users increase as DeFi has scaled.
“Most people came to DeFi hoping their money would work for them,” Bodkin says.
“But somehow it turned into them working for their money: checking charts at midnight, adjusting ranges in between meetings. It’s kind of backwards and wears users down.”
According to Bodkin, real passivity won’t come from asking users to do even more but from rethinking how yield is managed altogether. This sounds less like the yield-chasing days of past cycles and more like a search for tools that don’t depend on users being glued to their wallets.
Bringing AI Into DeFi Without the Black Box Problem
Theoriq’s new protocol, AlphaVault, fits into a broader shift toward more autonomous forms of DeFi management. In the past year, more projects have started experimenting with the overlap between DeFi and AI (sometimes called DeFAI), using agents to help automate routine decisions and keep up with fast-moving markets.
It’s the kind of experimentation that has slowly moved from hackathon curiosity to something protocol teams now discuss as part of long-term roadmaps. Bodkin adds:
“We’re seeing more interest in AI across DeFi, but the real challenge is making sure people can understand and trust what those agents are doing. Transparency has to grow alongside automation, or none of this scales the way people hope.”
AlphaVault is among the DeFi vaults experimenting with using specialized AI agents to manage user capital directly. Instead of relying on simple, rule-based compounding tools, it uses a multi-agent system built to adjust to changing market conditions. This setup was tested under real pressure during Theoriq’s testnet, which processed more than 65 million agent requests across 2.1 million wallets.
According to the team, one of the key differences with it and other AI Agent protocols is how it handles transparency and safety. Earlier attempts were often criticized for hiding how decisions were made.
AlphaVault approaches this with “policy cages”, which are smart-contract rules that define exactly what an agent is allowed to do, from asset types to position sizes. These boundaries are meant to give users a clearer sense of how the system operates and reduce the risks seen in earlier AI experiments.
At launch, AlphaVault is integrating with established, trusted partners in the Ethereum yield space. These include Lido’s stRATEGY vault, curated by Mellow Protocol, and Chorus One’s MEV Max, powered by StakeWise.
These partnerships allow AlphaVault to allocate capital into established Ethereum yield strategies that have been used across the ecosystem. The idea is to give users a way to earn returns without constantly checking or adjusting their positions, though how well this works in practice will depend on the system’s long-term performance.
Bootstrapping Liquidity the Way Many DeFi Projects Now Do
Across DeFi, early participation programs have become a common way for projects to build liquidity and establish an initial base of total value locked (TVL), giving new systems room to operate under real conditions. AlphaVault is taking a similar route.
To get the vault started, Theoriq has launched an incentivized bootstrapping phase where the community can lock ETH and earn points that convert into $THQ rewards. As this phase progresses, TVL gradually moves from being locked capital to live capital managed inside AlphaVault by its autonomous agents.
It’s a familiar pattern in DeFi, but in this case the capital doesn’t just sit but becomes fuel for a system designed to operate with minimal manual oversight, the team claims.
Where things get more interesting is in how $THQ is meant to function going forward. Instead of serving only as an incentive, Theoriq plans for it to become a reputation token that lets users stake behind AI agents they believe are performing well.
If an agent behaves poorly or fails to meet expectations, those stakes can be partially slashed. This mechanism aims to keep quality high and discourage reckless behavior.
This approach reflects a broader industry effort to bring more accountability into automated systems. Rather than relying on marketing claims or opaque performance reports, the idea is to let reputation form directly around how these agents behave over time.
In theory, that creates a system where trust isn’t based on personalities or promises, but on visible, on-chain performance, and where the community has a direct role in shaping which AI agents earn more responsibility.
Where DeFi Goes After the Yield-Chasing Era
Theoriq hopes to shift the industry conversation away from chasing bigger APYs and toward reducing the amount of work users are expected to do. It is designed based on the idea that developers are looking for ways to offload the constant monitoring, rebalancing, and decision-making that most people still carry out manually.
The goal isn’t to remove users from the process, but to build tools that take care of the routine, time-sensitive parts of on-chain management so people don’t have to treat DeFi like a side job.
According to the team, there’s a growing interest among users in systems that can operate more consistently in the background, reacting to market conditions without requiring them to intervene every few hours. This type of automation is increasingly seen as a natural next step for a sector that wants to mature, scale, and bring in a broader audience.
It’s within this wider push for more dependable, transparent on-chain automation that Theoriq and its AlphaVault system may make sense. Whether AI-managed vaults become standard or remain early experiments is still an open question, but the direction of the industry makes their arrival feel far from accidental.
Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee as global markets quietly shift with Japan’s bond yields surging and the BoJ hinting at a rate hike. The decades-long yen carry trade, which fueled stocks, crypto, and risk assets, could be unraveling faster than anyone expects.
Crypto News of the Day: Bitcoin Braces as BoJ May End Decades of Cheap Money
Global markets are bracing for a potential macro shock as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) prepares for its December 18–19 monetary policy meeting.
BoJ Interest Rate Cut probabilities. Source: Polymarket
Japan’s 2-year government bond yield has climbed above 1%, its highest since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, while the 10-year JGB hit a 17-year high, highlighting rising borrowing costs.
Why the Yen Carry Trade Matters
For nearly three decades, the yen carry trade fueled global risk-taking. Investors borrowed yen at ultra-low rates, converted it to dollars, and deployed capital into higher-yielding assets, including US stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
When Japan raises rates or the yen strengthens, this trade unwinds violently, forcing rapid asset sales.
The consequences are not hypothetical: in August 2024, a BoJ hike triggered a $600 billion crypto market wipe, including Bitcoin falling to $49,000 and $1.14 billion in liquidations. Analysts warn that a similar scenario could repeat if Japanese yields rise further.
🚨 The BOJ is about to shake crypto markets 🇯🇵Japan's likely rate hike to 80% Dec 18-19 – this threatens the yen carry trade that's been funding $BTC & risk assets for years Last time they hiked was Aug 2024.
🔥BTC crashed to $49K $600B wiped from crypto $1.14B in liquidations…
Besides Paul Barron, analyst Great Martis also calls the BoJ hike a potential “canary in the coal mine” for crypto and global markets.
“When the reckless BOJ is forced to raise rates, the yen carry trade will begin to unwind, causing market turmoil. Canary in the coal mine,” Martis wrote in a post.
Meanwhile, early signs of stress are emerging, as hedge funds and institutional investors closely monitor the simultaneous tightening of liquidity in Japan, the US, and China. This rare convergence could accelerate deleveraging.
Nonetheless, counterpoints exist. Analyst Negentropic notes that most leverage has already been flushed since October. In the same tone, Bob Elliot argues the yen carry trade is largely muted.
The Yen Carry Trade Is Dead
Despite a falling FX and low rates, the yen carry trade remains muted. Naked FX borrowing ended with the GFC, with the only thing left a lingering nostalgia for a trade that mattered 20yrs ago.https://t.co/1h7Zlp3KVQpic.twitter.com/2llIZerTqt
Yet even modest unwinding could pressure highly leveraged crypto positions and risk assets globally.
If QE Is Not the Immediate Solution, What’s Next for Bitcoin and Global Risk Assets?
Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, emphasizes that quantitative easing (QE) historically follows a crisis, not routine rate adjustments.
The current tightening in Japan, the US, and China suggests that markets may face further drawdowns before any liquidity support arrives. Investors betting on easy money could face sharper-than-expected volatility.
Crypto markets are often the first to absorb funding shocks, making Bitcoin and Ethereum bellwethers for liquidity stress.
With the BoJ’s rate decision looming, traders should monitor:
JGB yields,
USD/JPY levels, and
Leveraged positions.
If Japan continues tightening, global deleveraging could persist into 2026, testing the resilience of both crypto and traditional markets.
The era of free Japanese money appears to be coming to an end. Markets now face a higher-volatility environment, where fundamental value may replace cheap leverage as the main driver of asset prices.
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