Ethereum price action is sending mixed signals. After correcting over 3% in a day, ETH is flashing early rebound signs, but downside risk has not cleared yet. The chart structure, momentum data, and on-chain cost levels all point to a narrow decision zone.
Right now, Ethereum is stuck between a possible bounce and a deeper breakdown. And the gap between those two outcomes is smaller than it looks. What’s worth noting is that the breakdown zone looms closer!
Rebound Signal Sits Inside a Tight Triangle
Ethereum is trading inside a narrowing triangle, a structure that reflects growing buyer-seller indecision. Price has compressed toward the lower trendline, often a zone where selling pressure starts to fade.
Between December 1 and December 17, ETH printed a higher low on price. At the same time, the RSI (Relative Strength Index), a momentum measuring tool, made a lower low. This creates hidden bullish divergence, meaning selling momentum is weakening.
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This setup does not guarantee a rally. But it does suggest downside pressure may be exhausting as Ethereum approaches structural support, the lower triangle trendline. In simple terms, sellers are losing strength, but buyers have not taken control yet.
That makes the next move highly sensitive to key levels.
Cost Basis Data Shows Where Ethereum Price Rebound Could Stall
On-chain cost basis data helps explain why upside may remain capped.
The strongest near-term resistance sits between $3,154 and $3,179, where roughly 2.8 million ETH were accumulated. This is a heavy supply zone. When price revisits this range, many holders reach break-even and tend to sell.
This aligns closely with the chart resistance at $3,149, which marks an 11% upside from current levels. Even if the Ethereum price rebounds, this zone is likely to attract selling unless the price closes cleanly above it. That is why any bounce without a daily close above this area would still be considered corrective, not trend-changing.
The downside picture is more fragile.
The most important support cluster sits between $2,801 and $2,823. This range has acted as a key demand zone. A clean daily close below $2,801 (which also shows up on the price chart) would be a warning signal.
Bitcoin’s violent move on December 17 caught traders off guard. In a single day, BTC surged to around $90,500 before reversing hard and sliding toward $85,200. From high to low, that was a swing of more than 5%, or roughly $5,000.
This was not news-driven. It was structure-driven. Three charts explain why the move happened, why it stalled exactly where it did, and why similar volatility remains possible.
Volume Breakdown Signaled Risk Before the Drop
Before the sell-off, the BTC price action already showed stress. Between December 15 and December 17, the Bitcoin price printed a marginal higher low on the daily chart. On the surface, that looked stable. But On-Balance Volume told a different story.
OBV tracks whether volume confirms price moves. During this period, OBV failed to follow the price higher and instead made a lower low. That bearish divergence signaled distribution. In simple terms, price was holding up, but volume was quietly flowing out.
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First Trigger For The Volatile Price Swing: TradingView
When Bitcoin pushed toward $90,500, it did so with weak participation. That made the rally fragile. Once selling started, there was no volume support beneath, which turned a pullback into a sharp intraday whiplash.
In markets, whiplash refers to a rapid move up followed immediately by a sharp move down, or vice versa.
Cost Basis Heatmap Shows Why $90,500 Rejected and $85,200 Held
On-chain cost basis data explains the exact turning points.
The cost basis heatmap shows a dense supply cluster between $90,168 and $90,591. Around 115,188 BTC were accumulated in this zone. When the price revisited this range, many holders reached break-even.
That could have created immediate sell pressure. Combined with OBV weakness, this cluster acted like a ceiling. The rally stalled, then reversed.
On the downside, the story changes.
Another strong cluster sits between $84,845 and $85,243. This is the most concentrated near-term support zone on the chart. As the price fell, buyers stepped in aggressively here. That is why the Bitcoin price did not collapse further, even during forced liquidations.
So the move was boxed in. Sellers defended $90,500. Buyers defended $85,200. The whiplash happened inside those walls.
Bitcoin Price Levels Now Decide If Volatility Returns
Structurally, Bitcoin is still holding a mild uptrend from the November 21 low. That matters. Yesterday’s volatility event was inside the range.
For upside continuation, one level stands out. Bitcoin must post a clean daily close above $90,500. That level has not been reclaimed since December 13. Without a close above it, any rally risks another rejection.
Above that, $92,200 to $92,300 becomes critical. On-chain data shows another supply cluster there. Traders should expect friction unless the price clears that zone decisively. Also, traders reading this might want to consider complete daily closes above key levels mentioned on the charts instead of wick-styled breakouts.
On the downside, $85,000-$85,200 remains the key zone. As long as this cluster holds, a deeper downside is less likely. A failure there would expose $83,800, but breaching $85,000 would require fresh liquidation pressure.
The takeaway is simple. Bitcoin’s 5%+ whiplash was not random. It was the result of weak volume, heavy supply at known cost levels, and tight liquidity. Until those structures change, sharp moves like this remain part of the crypto market’s reality.
Solana price action has gone quiet after weeks of pressure. SOL is down roughly 10% over the past 30 days, yet it has traded nearly flat over the last 24 hours, even as the broader market weakens. That pause matters.
It comes as Solana quietly seeks to gain institutional exposure in Brazil through Valour’s Solana ETP (Exchange-Traded Product), which is expected to list on the B3 exchange. This move reinforces a steady channel for regulated demand at a time when charts show breakout signs. The question now is simple. Can this backdrop help Solana resolve a difficult technical setup, or do sellers still control the trend?
ETP Hype Meets a Sloping Breakdown Structure
Valour’s Solana ETP offers regulated exposure to SOL for Brazilian investors and institutions. While it is not a short-term price driver, it adds steady absorption during periods of selling pressure. That matters most when charts show key patterns. And it also could be a sentimental trigger in a market where every asset is looking at narratives.
Technically, Solana is trading inside a down-sloping head-and-shoulders structure, not a clean textbook pattern. When the neckline slopes lower, breakouts require stronger confirmation because sellers continue pressing at lower levels over time.
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However, some buyer-specific signs are appearing, which could help combat the sellers and help the Solana price aim for a clean neckline breakout.
Quiet Accumulation Appears Beneath the Surface
While price struggles, on-chain data shows early signs of accumulation.
The 3-month to 6-month holder cohort has increased its supply share meaningfully. This group held 11.756% of the supply on November 16, which has now risen to 16.126% by December 16. That is a sharp increase over one month and points to mid-term buyers stepping in during weakness.
At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is sending a constructive signal. Between November 3 and December 15, the Solana price made a lower low, but the CMF formed a higher low. This divergence suggests buying pressure is building underneath, even as price drifts lower.
However, CMF remains below zero. That indicates that large capital remains cautious. Buyers are present but are not yet aggressive. Together, these signals point to positioning, not confirmation.
Solana Price Levels That Decide the Next Leg
The Solana price now carries the full weight of the story. $141 is the first level to watch. Reclaiming it would mark a break of the sloping neckline, but not a trend change. Remember, the neckline slopes down and therefore requires a stronger confirmation.
$153 is therefore the key. A daily close above $153 would confirm that buyers have overpowered the sloping structure and could open a move toward higher resistance zones.
On the downside, $121 remains the critical support. A failure there would invalidate the accumulation thesis and breakout pattern, shifting focus back to the deeper downside.
Cardano price is trading near its weakest levels of the year. The token is down roughly 24% over the past 30 days and about 5% over the past 24 hours, hovering close to its yearly low near $0.37. What makes this move stand out is not just the size of the drop, but the structure behind it.
In the span of just two months, Cardano has completed two separate bearish continuation breakdowns, putting fresh pressure on the chart and raising the risk of a deeper move.
Two Bearish Breakdowns in Two Months Signal Structural Weakness
The first breakdown formed in early November. ADA built a bearish flag through late October, then broke down around November 11. That move led to a sharp decline, with the price falling roughly 38% from the flag’s high.
After a brief consolidation, Cardano repeated the pattern. A second bearish flag developed through late November and early December. On December 11, ADA broke down again, confirming a second continuation move in just two months.
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When markets print repeated bearish continuation patterns without meaningful recovery, it signals sustained seller control rather than panic selling. If the current breakdown follows the same measured-move logic as the first, downside targets begin clustering near the $0.25 zone.
Why This Weakness Itself Could Limit Further Damage
Despite the bearish structure, there are two factors that slightly soften the downside risk.
First, derivatives positioning is already skewed heavily bearish. Gate’s liquidation data shows long leverage is thin, with only about $27 million in long positions, while short exposure sits near $135 million, 5x more. Most long liquidation clusters end around $0.36, meaning forced selling pressure drops sharply at that level. Fewer crowded longs reduces the chance of a liquidation cascade.
Second, long-term holder behavior has stabilized. The 1-year-to-2-year cohort, often viewed as higher-conviction holders, has sharply reduced spending, as seen via the Spent Coin metric, which groups coin movements by cohorts.
Coins moved by this group fell from 666.24 million ADA to just 2.48 million ADA since December 10, a decline of almost 99.6%. That suggests selling pressure from committed holders is drying up, even as the price remains weak.
In simple terms, ADA’s weakness has scared off leverage and slowed long-term selling, which can act as a temporary brake during broader market stress.
Key ADA Price Levels to Watch
The Cardano price chart remains fragile. $0.36 is the most important near-term support. The same level is highlighted by the liquidation map shared earlier.
A clean break below it opens the door to $0.33, and from there, the measured breakdown target near $0.25 comes into focus.
For any bullish reset, ADA would need to reclaim $0.48. Without that, rallies remain corrective, not trend-changing.
Two breakdowns in two months define the trend. Weakness itself may slow the fall; however, unless the structure improves, the risk of a $0.25 test cannot be ignored.
The crypto market remains cautious, but some tokens are facing important tests this week. As prices move sideways, attention is shifting toward three altcoins to watch in the third week of December. Each has a specific catalyst approaching, from supply changes to network events and shifting holder behavior.
These setups could drive sharp moves if buyers or sellers take control in the days ahead.
Sei (SEI)
SEI has been under steady pressure heading into mid-December, and price action reflects that caution. The token is down roughly 23% over the past month and more than 60% over the last three months, keeping sentiment fragile as the market looks for direction.
At the time of writing, SEI trades near $0.124, consolidating inside a broader falling wedge structure on the daily chart. This pattern often appears late in downtrends, where selling pressure slows, and the price begins to compress. For now, SEI is hovering just above the lower boundary of that structure, making the next few sessions critical. That tension qualifies SEI to be on the altcoins to watch list.
Momentum indicators offer a mixed but interesting signal. Between December 5 and December 14, the SEI price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum strength, and this bullish divergence suggests sellers may be losing control, even as price remains weak.
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That said, near-term risk remains elevated due to SEI’s scheduled token unlock on December 15. Around 55.56 million SEI, roughly 1.08% of the circulating supply, is set to enter the market. Token unlocks often increase short-term selling pressure, especially when broader sentiment is cautious.
Key levels define the setup clearly. A clean move above $0.159 would signal that buyers are absorbing unlock-related supply and could open a rebound toward higher resistance zones. That includes $0.193 and even higher.
On the downside, a drop of roughly 3% from current levels, to $0.120, risks a breakdown toward the lower trendline. That would weaken the bullish divergence thesis.
Bittensor (TAO)
Bittensor price action has compressed into a tight range ahead of its upcoming halving, setting up a clear decision point. TAO has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, showing balance between buyers and sellers after weeks of downside pressure. That kind of buyer-seller tussle makes it one of the top altcoins to watch in the third week of December.
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The TAO Halving is approaching, Here’s what changes and what stays the same… 🧵 pic.twitter.com/0pwLdZLeCD
TAO is down around 15.5% over the past month and roughly 6.6% over the last seven days. Short-term weakness continues, but volatility has dropped, which often appears before larger moves. This structure reflects indecision rather than outright bearish control.
The halving acts as the key backdrop. Bittensor’s halving reduces token emissions, tightening new supply. Historically, such events do not guarantee immediate upside, but they often act as a catalyst when the price is already compressed.
From a technical view, the first bullish trigger sits near $301. A daily close above this level would break the upper trendline of the triangle and signal renewed strength. That move opens a path toward $321, followed by $396 if momentum builds and broader market conditions cooperate.
Downside risk remains. $277 is critical support. A breakdown below it weakens the structure and exposes $255, with $199 as a deeper risk zone if sentiment deteriorates.
Aster (ASTER)
Aster stands out as one of the altcoins to watch in the third week of December because of a clear tug-of-war between whales and the broader market.
On-chain data shows aggressive whale accumulation heading into this week. Over the past seven days, whale-held ASTER balances jumped by about 42.7 million tokens, rising from roughly 39.85 million to 82.54 million ASTER. That is a 107% increase, signaling strong conviction from large holders ahead of the third week of December.
At the same time, exchanges tell a different story. Exchange balances took a 10.48% jump. This suggests possible retail selling even as whales accumulate.
That buyer-seller conflict is also visible on the chart. ASTER has been correcting since November 19 but is now compressing inside a triangle pattern, reflecting indecision. During this phase, a hidden bullish divergence has formed. Between November 3 and December 14, the price made a higher low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a lower low, which often signals exhausting selling pressure.
That’s often associated with price rebounds. If this setup plays out, the first level to watch is $0.94. A daily close above it would break the triangle resistance and open the path toward $0.98, followed by a potential 16% move to $1.08 if momentum builds and whale support persists.
On the downside, losing $0.88 would invalidate the bullish divergence and expose $0.81, shifting control back to sellers.
XRP is trading near $1.99, down about 1% over the past 24 hours. Despite broader market volatility, it is only around 4% lower on the week, showing relative stability compared to many altcoins like ADA and BCH.
More importantly, the chart is flashing an early bullish reversal signal. The setup is not confirmed yet, but if one key level continues to hold, the odds of a short-term rebound, at least 9%, increase meaningfully.
Bullish Divergence Appears as the XRP Price Defends Key Support
XRP has formed a bullish divergence on the daily chart between December 1 and December 14. A bullish divergence happens when the price makes a lower low, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) makes a higher low. RSI is a momentum indicator that measures buying and selling strength. When RSI improves while price weakens, it often signals that selling pressure is fading.
On the daily chart, a standard bullish divergence like this can lead to trend reversal — from bearish to bullish.
Yet, this divergence alone is not enough. It only matters if the XRP price holds support.
Around 1.79 billion XRP were accumulated in this range. A cost basis heatmap shows where large groups of holders bought their coins. When price trades near these levels, holders are less likely to sell at a loss, which strengthens support.
As long as XRP stays above $1.97, the bullish divergence theory remains valid, provided the RSI reading stays strong.
Why $2.17 Is the First Real Test for the Bulls
If support holds, XRP has room to move higher. The first upside target sits near $2.17, which is roughly a 9% move from current levels.
This level matters because the cost basis heatmap shows heavy supply between $2.16 and $2.17. About 1.36 billion XRP were acquired in this zone. That makes it a strong resistance area, where selling pressure is likely to appear.
XRP Price Can Face Resistance At This Level: Glassnode
If the XRP price pushes through $2.17 with a daily candle close, it could open the path toward $2.28, then $2.69, and eventually $3.10. Yet, those levels remain secondary for now and depend on broader market conditions.
The invalidation is clear. A daily close below $1.97 would weaken the reversal setup and expose downside toward $1.81 and $1.77.
For now, the XRP price sits at a decision point. The bullish reversal signal is active, but only if the most important support level continues to hold.
HBAR is running out of time. The token is down nearly 2% over the past 24 hours and close to 10% for the week. In the process, HBAR price has broken several short-term support levels and is now hovering near $0.12.
This level is critical. HBAR is barely 1% above a breakdown zone that could drag the price toward $0.10. That move would translate into a 12% to 13% decline from current levels. But one bullish signal is still holding the structure together. If it fails, the downside could accelerate.
Big Money Stepping Away Weakens the Setup
The main source of pressure comes from how large HBAR holders are behaving.
This is visible through the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether big money is entering or exiting an asset by combining price movement with trading volume. When CMF is above zero, large buyers are active. When it falls below zero, the distribution is taking place.
For HBAR, CMF has deteriorated sharply. Since December 7, CMF has dropped by more than 400% and moved deep into negative territory. Earlier pullbacks still saw CMF stay positive, meaning buyers absorbed selling pressure. This time, that support is gone.
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There is also a clear bearish divergence. Between October 10 and December 14, the HBAR price formed higher lows, while the CMF formed lower lows. This shows that recent price stability was not backed by strong demand from large players.
In simple terms, price tried to hold up while big money quietly exited. That imbalance makes the HBAR price vulnerable.
One Bullish Signal Is Still Holding the Floor
Despite the weak big-money picture, one momentum indicator is still flashing a bullish sign.
That indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength and speed of recent price moves. It helps identify when selling pressure may be getting exhausted. Readings near 30 usually suggest oversold conditions.
On HBAR’s daily chart, RSI has formed a bullish divergence. Between November 21 and December 14, the HBAR price made a lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. This is a classic bullish divergence and often appears as a trend reversal sign.
P.S. The HBAR price is in a clear downtrend, losing over 48% in the 3-month horizon.
This tells us sellers are still pushing prices lower, but with less force each time. The decline continues, but the seller-driven momentum behind it is weakening. At the moment, this RSI divergence is the only bullish play HBAR has left.
HBAR Price Breaks Down or Turns the Tide?
Price action defines the final outcome. HBAR is trading below a descending trend line that has capped every rally for weeks. At the same time, price is sitting on a trend-based Fibonacci support near $0.12. That line acts as the base of the descending triangle pattern, completed by the descending trendline.
This zone is the last line of defense.
If $0.12 breaks decisively, the next major support sits near $0.10. That move would confirm a 12% to 13% breakdown and extend the bearish trend.
To stabilize, the HBAR price must reclaim $0.13. That level lines up with a key Fibonacci retracement zone and would signal buyers stepping back in.
A stronger shift would only come above $0.13. That would place the price back above the descending trend line and reset the structure from bearish to neutral.
Ethereum price action looks quiet, but the entire formation is slowly turning bullish. Over the past 24 hours, ETH has traded almost flat, while the past seven days show a modest 2.6% gain. Price has remained above $3,100 for several sessions, suggesting strength rather than exhaustion.
This sideways move is not random. Ethereum is compressing near key levels, where breakouts often form. The next move depends on whether buyers, who are gradually returning, can turn this consolidation into a continuation.
Bull Flag Structure Holds as the Breakout Zone Appears
Ethereum appears to be breaking out after consolidating inside a bull flag. A bull flag forms when the price pauses after a strong upward move, then trades in a narrow range before the next leg higher. This pattern signals consolidation, not weakness.
The structure remains intact as long as ETH holds above $3,090. That means, unless there is a daily candle close below this level, the much-anticipated breakout might hold.
This level has acted as firm support, absorbing selling pressure during recent pullbacks. Price has repeatedly bounced from this zone, showing buyers are still defending it.
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A clean daily close above $3,130 would be the first confirmation that the flag is resolving higher. That move would signal that consolidation is ending and buyers are regaining control. Without that close, Ethereum remains in compression, but the bullish structure stays valid.
Selling Pressure Eases as Key Ethereum Price Levels Emerge
On-chain data support the price structure. Holder Net Position Change, which tracks whether long-term investors are adding or selling ETH, shows that selling pressure has eased compared to earlier sessions.
On December 12, Ethereum holders distributed roughly 958,771 ETH. By December 13, net selling dropped to around 877,958 ETH, marking a decline of roughly 8.4% in selling pressure within 24 hours.
Ethereum Holders Are Selling Fewer Coins: Glassnode
That shift matters. Ethereum is still seeing net distribution, but the pace of selling is slowing as the price compresses near resistance. This behavior typically appears during late-stage consolidation, not during breakdowns.
When selling pressure eases near a key level without price slipping lower, it increases the odds that buyers step in once a breakout confirms. Ethereum is not seeing panic exits. Instead, holders appear more willing to wait.
If the Ethereum price secures a daily close above $3,130, the next resistance sits near $3,390. Clearing that zone would open the path toward the $4,000–$4,020 area, aligning with the measured move from the bull flag structure.
However, the bullish structure would weaken if the Ethereum price drops under $3,090 or even $2,910. Closing below the latter would break the pattern completely.
Shiba Inu price has had a rough year. The token is down nearly 70% year-on-year and more than 90% from its all-time high. With meme coin interest fading, many now question whether SHIB is slowly dying.
That concern grew after CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said meme coins are “dead,” citing collapsing dominance and shrinking speculation. On the surface, Shiba Inu seems to fit that narrative. But on-chain data adds more layers to the story.
Meme Coin Weakness Is Real, and Shiba Inu Reflects It
The broader meme coin market has clearly weakened. CryptoQuant data shows meme coin dominance has fallen to early-2024 lows, signaling reduced speculative activity across altcoins.
Shiba Inu mirrors that trend. Price has stayed under long-term resistance, and rallies have failed to hold. Smart money wallets, which track experienced and active traders, have steadily reduced SHIB exposure throughout the year.
That suggests traders are not positioning for short-term rebounds. Simply put, informed traders are not relying on price surges, let alone rallies.
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A recent chunk of derivatives data reinforces this view. Over the past 30 days, most perpetual futures traders have cut exposure. Outside of the largest addresses, leverage remains light. This shows traders are cautious and not expecting a fast or explosive move.
In simple terms, speculation has dried up. That supports the idea that meme coins are no longer driving the market the way they once did. But speculation is only one side of the equation.
Whales and Holders Keep Adding as Coins Leave Exchanges
Despite weak price action, long-term behavior tells a different story.
Shiba Inu’s holder count, which tracks how many wallets hold SHIB, has continued to rise throughout the year. It started near 1.46 million and has grown to roughly 1.54 million. The growth has not been smooth, but the trend remains positive, even as prices fell sharply.
Over the past year, large holders have increased their SHIB balances by about 249%, per the image shared earlier. Mega-whale balances are up roughly 28.5%. At the same time, exchange balances, which show how many tokens sit on trading platforms, have dropped by nearly 22%. Fewer coins on exchanges usually mean less immediate selling pressure.
This trend accelerated recently. Over the past 30 days alone, whale balances rose more than 61%, while most of the exchange outflows happened during the same period.
That does not look like panic or abandonment. It looks like slow accumulation.
However, it is important to note that derivatives traders are not joining in. Outside of top addresses, leverage positioning remains muted. Whales appear early, but are not aggressive.
Shiba Inu Price Structure Still Weak, but a Reversal Setup Is Emerging
On the three-day chart, Shiba Inu is trading inside a long-term falling wedge, a pattern that often turns bullish if the price breaks upward. Recently, a key signal appeared.
Between December 3 and December 12, the Shiba Inu price made a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, made a higher low. This bullish divergence suggests selling pressure is weakening, raising the odds of a trend reversal.
Key levels now matter more than narratives.
The first resistance sits near $0.0000092. A clean break above this level would mark a breakout from the upper trendline that has capped the price since September. If confirmed, the next resistance zones lie near $0.000010, $0.000011, and $0.000014, which align with the last major swing high. Do note that only a level break beyond $0.0000092 could completely invalidate the “dead coin” claims.
On the downside, the structure weakens below $0.0000075. A sustained move under that level would invalidate the reversal setup and reopen downside risk.
Shiba Inu is not dead, but it is not strong either. Speculation is gone, traders remain cautious, and quick gains are unlikely. Still, rising holder counts, heavy whale accumulation, and falling exchange balances suggest the chain is far from abandoned.
If an altcoin cycle returns, Shiba Inu still has a path to revival. For now, it remains in survival mode, waiting for stronger confirmation.
Bitcoin price looks stuck at first glance. Over the past 24 hours, the price has been nearly flat, down just 0.2%. Even on a weekly basis, Bitcoin has barely moved, up roughly 0.7%. The market feels quiet, and many traders are calling this range-bound action.
But under the surface, several signals suggest Bitcoin (BTC) is not as weak as it looks. Momentum is shifting slowly, sellers are losing conviction, and large holders continue to position quietly. Together, these factors explain why bullish Bitcoin price predictions made by experts like Tom Lee have not disappeared, even without a breakout yet.
Momentum And Volume Signals Are Quietly Improving
On the daily chart, the Bitcoin price continues to respect the $90,100 level. This zone has acted as a firm base during recent volatility, preventing deeper pullbacks even as the price failed to trend higher.
One of the clearest early signals comes from On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of an asset, helping identify hidden buying or selling pressure.
Between December 9 and December 11, the Bitcoin price made a lower high, while OBV made a higher high. This divergence shows that even as prices struggled, buyers were more active beneath the surface.
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That signal strengthened between December 10 and December 12. During this period, the Bitcoin price made a lower low, while OBV formed a higher low. This tells the same story from another angle. Sellers pushed the price lower, but with weaker volume support.
These two OBV divergences work together, not against each other. Combined, they show selling pressure is fading, not accelerating. This does not confirm a breakout, but it often appears before one.
Holders And Whales Are Positioning Despite the Flat Price
Momentum signals alone are not enough. On-chain data adds confirmation. Holder Net Position Change tracks whether long-term holders are adding or reducing Bitcoin positions. Negative values mean selling. Fewer negative values mean selling pressure is easing.
On December 10, long-term holders were distributing roughly 155,999 BTC. By December 13, that number dropped to around 150,614 BTC. That is a reduction of about 3.4% in selling pressure.
The change is not dramatic, but it is meaningful. Bitcoin is not seeing panic selling despite trading in a range. Instead, holders are selling less as the price stabilizes. This behavior typically appears during consolidation phases, not during breakdowns.
The strongest signal comes from whales. The number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC remains near its six-month high. This metric often reflects large, long-term investors.
Since late October, the Bitcoin price has corrected and moved sideways. During the same period, whale entities continued to add. This creates a clear divergence. Price weakened, but large holders kept accumulating. And they usually do not add without any valid reason.
These forecasts are not based on short-term candles. They rely on reduced selling, improving volume structure, and steady whale accumulation. Still, the Bitcoin price must confirm the thesis.
Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide Whether Bulls Take Control
The most important level remains $94,600. A daily close above this zone would mark roughly a 5% move from current levels and break above the upper boundary of the current compression structure. That would signal that buyers have regained short-term control.
If $94,600 breaks, the next resistance sits near $99,800. A sustained move above that level could open the path toward $107,500, if broader market conditions allow. That could be the first real catalyst to Tom Lee’s aggressive $180,000 outlook, as stated earlier.
On the downside, if the Bitcoin price loses $90,000, support lies near $89,200. Below that, $87,500 becomes the next key level. A break under these zones would invalidate the bullish setup, at least in the short term.
Pi Coin has struggled since late November. After peaking near the end of the month, the price has dropped roughly 28%, erasing most of its earlier gains. Over the past seven days alone, Pi Coin is down about 8.6%, and over the past three months, losses now exceed 40%.
Despite that weakness, the latest chart data shows something new forming beneath the surface. Momentum pressure is starting to shift, raising the question of whether the correction may be nearing a pause. Will the pause lead to a rebound or a complete reversal? Time to find out!
Momentum Pressure Is Easing, But Buyers Are Still Hesitant
On the daily chart, Pi Coin has formed a hidden bullish divergence between November 4 and December 11. During this period, price made a higher low while the Relative Strength Index made a lower low. RSI measures momentum by tracking the speed of buying and selling. When price holds higher levels while momentum weakens, it often signals that selling pressure is starting to fade.
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This type of divergence usually appears near the end of sharp dips. It does not confirm a reversal by itself, but it often precedes rebound attempts when sellers begin to lose control.
However, momentum alone is not enough. The Chaikin Money Flow, which tracks whether large buyers or sellers are dominating volume, is still flashing caution. CMF remains close to testing its descending trend line (connecting lower lows) and is also trading below the zero line. This shows that big money flows have not turned supportive towards Pi Coin, yet.
In simple terms, selling pressure looks weaker, but the big buyers are not fully committed. That keeps the rebound setup fragile. Until money flow improves, upside attempts are likely to face resistance. And if the CMF breaks below the trendline, the rebound (not reversal) setup for the Pi Network coin might get invalidated, completely.
Pi Coin Price Levels That Decide What’s Next
The PI price chart now sits at a decision point. For the rebound structure to gain traction, Pi Coin needs to reclaim the $0.222 area. A sustained move above this level would mark roughly a 7% advance and signal that buyers are willing to defend higher prices again. If that happens, the price could extend toward $0.244 and possibly $0.253, provided broader market conditions stabilize.
Only a price move above $0.284 (late November high) could signal a reversal attempt. That point seems to be far off now.
Support remains just below current levels. The $0.203 zone is critical. A daily close below $0.203 would weaken the rebound case significantly and expose the downside again. If that level fails, Pi Coin could retest lower areas and push the correction into a new leg.
The rebound setup only strengthens if the price moves higher while the CMF begins to rise toward zero. Without that confirmation, upside attempts risk stalling quickly.
The Zcash price has seen a sharp run this cycle, up over 700% in three months, followed by a healthy pause. After rallying strongly through the last week, the price is now pulling back, raising questions about whether momentum is fading or simply resetting.
While short-term price action looks undecided, on-chain and volume data suggest buyers may still be quietly in control. The next move depends on whether Zcash can turn consolidation into continuation.
Buyers Still Control Structure Despite Cooling Volume
Zcash price is currently trading inside a tightening triangle pattern, which reflects short-term buyer and seller indecision rather than outright weakness. Importantly, the price continues to respect the rising trend line that has guided the uptrend this cycle. As long as that structure holds, the broader setup remains constructive.
Volume behavior adds key context. Using Wyckoff-style volume color analysis, blue bars indicate buyer-led activity, while yellow and red bars reflect increasing seller control.
Although buyer volume has cooled recently, blue bars are still dominant. A similar slowdown occurred after October 17, when buying pressure briefly weakened, before Zcash went on to rally by more than 300%.
Cooling volume alone did not end that trend. As long as the blue bars dominate, the rally is likely to remain strong, despite any pullbacks.
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Spot flow data reinforces this picture. Spot flows track whether coins are moving onto or off exchanges.
Inflows suggest potential selling, while outflows signal accumulation. On December 12, Zcash recorded roughly $14.26 million in spot inflows, meaning coins moved onto exchanges.
By December 13, that flipped sharply to around $17.34 million in net outflows, showing coins being pulled off exchanges instead.
That shift matters. Exchange outflows reduce immediate sell pressure and often reflect spot buyers stepping in during pullbacks rather than distributing into strength.
Despite a mild pullback of about 2.5% over the past 24 hours, Zcash remains up roughly 20% over the past week and more than 700% over the past three months. The trend has not broken. It is consolidating.
Zcash Price Levels That Define the Next Move
For the bullish structure to continue, the Zcash price needs to break out of the triangle. The key level to watch is $511, a 24% move from current levels. A clean daily close above this level would confirm a bullish resolution and signal renewed buyer control.
If that breakout occurs, the first upside target sits near $549, followed by $733, which capped rallies earlier in the cycle. Higher resistance zones exist near $850 and $1,190, though reaching those would require sustained momentum and supportive broader market conditions.
Downside risk remains clearly defined. If the Zcash price loses $430, the triangle structure weakens. Strong support sits near $391, and a deeper breakdown could open the door to $301 if risk-off pressure spreads across the market.
The entire category featuring Made in USA coins has traded almost flat over the past week, even as broader crypto volatility picked up. That lack of movement stands out heading into Christmas, when thin liquidity often exposes which projects are quietly building pressure.
Several US-based tokens are now sitting at clear technical decision points, where small moves could shift the short-term trend. This piece lists three such Made in USA coins to watch before Christmas 2025, led by improving price structures, rising breakdown risks, and setups that could move sharply in either direction.
Cardano (ADA)
Cardano is one of the Made in USA coins that traders could be watching ahead of Christmas 2025. It is down around 3.5% over the past 24 hours, extending its monthly losses to over 27%.
The recent Midnight upgrade failed to shift sentiment, and downside pressure has returned as the broader market weakens.
On the daily chart, Cardano has broken down from a bearish continuation structure — the bearish pole-and-flag. The prior consolidation resolved lower, confirming sellers remain in control.
This keeps the broader downside projection active, which still points to a potential drop of nearly 39% from the earlier breakdown zone.
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The first level that matters now is $0.370. This area has acted as strong support in recent weeks, but the price is already drifting toward it. A daily close below $0.370 would increase downside risk and bring $0.259 into focus, which aligns with the full bearish projection.
For the Cardano price to stabilize, selling pressure must ease near $0.370. To invalidate the bearish setup and regain momentum, Cardano needs to reclaim $0.489, followed by $0.517. Those levels mark key Fibonacci resistances and would signal buyers stepping back in.
Until then, Cardano remains vulnerable into Christmas, especially if weakness across the Made in USA category continues.
Stellar (XLM)
Stellar sits at an important decision point among Made in USA coins ahead of Christmas, as price action begins to test whether long-term adoption can still support value in the short term.
XLM is down around 2.5% over the past 24 hours, extending its monthly decline to nearly 18%. That caution becomes clearer when looking at adoption data.
While the number of RWA holders on Stellar has increased sharply over the past month, the total value of assets on the network has declined.
The price chart reinforces that message. Between December 3 and December 9, Stellar formed a hidden bearish divergence. Price made a lower high while the RSI made a higher high. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, tracks momentum. Since that divergence appeared, XLM has continued drifting lower, confirming that the broader downtrend remains intact.
The key level now is $0.231. This zone has acted as short-term support during recent pullbacks. Holding above it would suggest sellers are slowing, especially into the thin Christmas trading period. A daily close below $0.231 would expose $0.216 next, opening the door to further downside if market weakness persists.
For the bearish structure to break, Stellar needs to reclaim $0.262. That level has capped every rally attempt since mid-November.
A move above it would require roughly a 10% push and would signal that buyers are finally willing to defend higher prices again. Some hope of reclaiming that level remains as analysts on X highlight XLM flashing a buy signal.
The last time the TD Sequential flashed a buy signal around these levels, Stellar $XLM jumped 95%. pic.twitter.com/KZYIAbOQME
Until then, Stellar remains a Made in USA coin where the trend still favors caution, making this support test especially important heading into Christmas.
Litecoin (LTC)
Litecoin is one of the few Made in USA coins showing relative stability heading into Christmas.
LTC is up around 1.5% on the week, making it an outlier among Made in USA coins. At the same time, it has remained down roughly 19% over the past month. This mixed performance lines up with recent fundamentals. Reports show institutions and funds have quietly accumulated around 3.7 million LTC, even as retail interest stayed muted.
That accumulation has not translated into immediate upside, but it helps explain why Litecoin has avoided deeper breakdowns compared to peers. For Made in USA projects, that kind of steady demand matters more than short-lived hype, especially into year-end.
On the price chart, Litecoin is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which is typically bullish. This structure reflects the fading of selling pressure over time, followed by buyers slowly regaining control. The pattern attempted a breakout on December 9 but failed to hold, pushing the price back into consolidation rather than triggering a reversal.
The structure remains valid as long as Litecoin holds above $79.63. A drop below this level would weaken the setup and delay any upside attempt. A deeper move below $74.72 would invalidate the pattern entirely and shift the outlook back to bearish continuation.
For confirmation, Litecoin needs a clean daily close above the neckline near $87.08. That break would signal the pattern is active again and open a path toward $97.95 first, with $101.69 as the full measured target.
Until that happens, Litecoin remains a US-based project (token) at a decision point, where steady institutional interest contrasts with still-cautious price action ahead of Christmas 2025.
XRP price has rebounded from recent lows, rising nearly 4% from yesterday’s bottom and stabilizing after a modest pullback. While the broader trend remains cautious, a new metric suggests downside momentum may be fading.
With the XRP issuer recently moving closer to regulated-banking status, the focus now shifts to whether large holders continue to step in to confirm a real trend change.
Bullish Divergence Forms as Largest Whales Begin Adding
On the daily chart, the XRP price has flashed a bullish divergence between December 1 and December 12. During this period, price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum, and this pattern often appears when selling pressure weakens before a rebound.
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This setup has already triggered a bounce, but what makes it more compelling is whale behavior. The two largest XRP holder groups have already started responding.
Wallets holding more than 1 billion XRP increased their holdings from 25.36 billion on December 9 to 25.42 billion. At the same time, wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP reversed their selling trend, rising from 8.08 billion on December 11 to 8.15 billion at press time.
In total, these two cohorts added roughly 130 million XRP. At the current price, that equals about $265 million in net accumulation. This confirms that the biggest holders are not just watching the divergence, they are acting on it.
XRP Price Levels That Decide If the Reversal Holds
For the bullish divergence to stay valid, the XRP price needs follow-through. The first level that matters is $2.11. A daily close above it would mark a 3.72% move from current levels and confirm that buyers are regaining short-term control. XRP has not held above $2.11 since early December.
If that level breaks, the next resistance sits at $2.21. Only a sustained move above $2.21 would shift the structure bullish and reopen the path toward $2.58 or higher.
On the downside, risk remains clearly defined. If the XRP price falls below $1.96 while RSI weakens, the bullish divergence would be invalidated. That scenario would expose $1.88 first, followed by $1.81 if selling accelerates.
Right now, the setup is constructive but unfinished. Momentum indicators show improvement, and whales have already responded once. For this reversal to fully play out, those large holders need to keep adding support, not just react briefly.
The crypto market has picked up over the past 24 hours, and traders are now looking for altcoins to watch as weekend flows usually bring sharper moves. Some projects are showing fresh demand after new updates, others are building momentum on the charts, and a few are nearing levels that could decide their next trend.
This BeInCrypto curated list highlights three setups that stand out heading into the weekend — each for a different reason.
Keeta (KTA)
KTA is up about 36% in the past 24 hours. The jump follows Keeta’s new fiat anchor launch, which lets users move money between bank accounts and stablecoins with fewer delays. That upgrade increases real-world use, so traders could watch Keeta closely this weekend.
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(1/3) We’re excited to announce that Bridge @Stablecoin is now live as the first Fiat Anchor on Keeta Network!
Bridge enables seamless movement between fiat and stablecoins, allowing users to deposit or withdraw directly to and from their bank accounts with speed and… pic.twitter.com/TlMKn1Ikod
On the 12-hour chart, Keeta has broken above $0.32. The next important level is $0.36, which rejected the last push. A clean close above it can open a move toward $0.43.
The breakout attempt comes with rare support from the Wyckoff volume-color indicator, which is based on simple buying and selling strength.
A green bar shows buyers in full control, a red bar shows sellers controlling the move, a blue bar shows buyers gaining control, and a yellow bar shows sellers gaining control. Keeta has printed two strong green bars for the first time since late November. That shift hints that real demand is backing the breakout rather than a short-term spike.
If buying continues and Keeta closes above $0.36, the path to $0.43 opens. If the bars turn blue or yellow again, profit-taking may start. In that case, $0.27 becomes the key support. A break below it exposes $0.21, which flips the short-term trend back to weak.
Keeta remains one of the top altcoins to watch this weekend because its fundamental upgrade and rising buyer strength now line up with a breakout setup above $0.36.
Solana (SOL)
Solana is up about 6% in the past 24 hours, helped by steady news coming out of the ongoing Breakpoint event. The most notable update is JPMorgan using Solana to arrange a tokenized commercial paper issuance. That kind of institutional use case keeps interest high even while the broader chart still faces hurdles. And that makes SOL one of the top altcoins to watch over the next two days.
Day 1 of Breakpoint 2025 is in the books.
Today, the global Solana community gathered in Abu Dhabi to witness an institutional convergence of Wall Street giants, sovereign wealth, DeFi, and internet capital markets.
Between December 7 and December 11, Solana formed a higher low while the RSI formed a lower low. The RSI tracks the speed of buying and selling. When price climbs but RSI slips, it creates a hidden bullish divergence. This usually signals fading selling pressure even before momentum shows up on the chart.
The rebound has pushed Solana back toward $146, a level that has blocked every move since November 14. A clean daily close above it this weekend would confirm strength and set up a path toward $171. Solana needs roughly a 5% push to test that breakout, which is well within its normal range when buyers step in.
If $146 rejects again, the pullback zone remains near $127. That level has held since December 2 and continues to act as a strong floor. A break below it weakens the setup, but as long as the hidden bullish divergence stays active, Solana still has a chance to retest higher levels.
For now, Solana is on the weekend watchlist because both the chart and the Breakpoint news flow point to a possible attempt at $146.
Chainlink (LINK)
Chainlink is up about 4% in the past 24 hours. Coinbase naming LINK’s CCIP the default bridge matters because it can raise real usage. If more wrapped assets move across networks with CCIP, demand for LINK could rise over time.
COINBASE $COIN SELECTS CHAINLINK $LINK CCIP AS EXCLUSIVE INTEROPERABILITY PROVIDER FOR ALL COINBASE WRAPPED ASSETS
An EMA crossover is forming on the 12-hour chart. EMA means exponential moving average. It is a moving average that gives more weight to recent prices. A bullish crossover happens when a smaller (20-period) EMA, in this case, rises above the longer (50-period) EMA. Traders use that crossover as a simple momentum signal. It suggests short-term buyers are gaining control.
LINK is trading above both EMAs already. That shows buyers are in control going into the weekend. If the 20/50 EMA crossover completes, LINK could try a quick push. The first level to clear is $14.23. LINK needs roughly 1.2% for a 12-hour close above it. A clean move above that opens $14.99, then $16.78.
If the crossover fails, risk returns to the downside. The key support is $13.37. A break below it would expose $12.44 and then $11.75. Right now, the chart and the Coinbase CCIP news line up. That combo is why LINK is a top token to watch this weekend.
HBAR price is flat today after a sharp monthly drop of nearly 29%. It is still down about 6% over the past week. The trend looks weak, but the deeper picture is more complex. Retail demand is soft, yet whales have added significantly over the past two days.
This mix of weakness and accumulation suggests a base may be forming even though the price action still looks weak.
Weak Demand Meets Heavy Accumulation?
HBAR is still moving inside a falling wedge. A wedge is usually a bullish structure because it shows sellers losing strength over time. But inside that wedge, something weaker appeared. Between December 7 and December 11, the HBAR price made a higher low while the On-Balance Volume (OBV) made a lower low.
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OBV is a cumulative volume tool that tracks whether money is flowing in or out of a token. When price makes a higher low but OBV drops, buyers do not have enough strength to support the bounce. That creates a bearish divergence even inside a bullish pattern.
Whales, however, are acting very differently. Accounts holding at least 10 million HBAR increased from 136.54 to 149.49. Accounts with at least 100 million HBAR rose from 40.65 to 73.62. Using only the minimum thresholds, whales added about 3.42 billion HBAR in under 48 hours. At the current price, this stash is worth at least $445 million.
OBV tracks traded volume on exchanges; large off-exchange transfers or OTC/custody moves may not appear in OBV, so OBV can miss some whale activity and is a better representation of retail interest.
This contradiction sets the stage for the next section, because whales are likely reacting to a deeper signal.
A Repeated Signal That Whales May Be Watching
Between October 17 and December 11, the price made a lower low while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) made a higher low. RSI measures the speed of buying and selling. When price falls, but RSI rises, it forms a standard bullish divergence. This kind of divergence is linked with trend reversals.
This same divergence appeared before earlier bounces. On December 1 and December 7, the pattern showed up, and HBAR moved 15%, and 12% from the lows. Each move stalled at resistance, but this time the divergence shows up alongside massive whale accumulation. That combination makes the current reversal attempt more meaningful than the previous ones inside the wedge.
If the caps that stopped the earlier rallies break, the divergence can shift the broader structure from bearish to bullish. That may be what whales are positioning for.
The Most Critical HBAR Price Levels
The HBAR price needs a daily close above $0.159. This level wasn’t breached during the previous bounces. A breakout above it also breaks the wedge’s upper trend line and opens room for a move toward $0.198 and $0.219.
If price weakens again, $0.122 is the line to watch. A drop below it sends HBAR back to the wedge’s lower boundary. That line is weak because it has only two touch points. A break below it delays any recovery and signals that sellers still control the broader trend.
Right now, OBV shows weak demand, RSI shows a bullish setup, and whales have added about 3.42 billion HBAR at the lows. If HBAR can clear $0.159, the whale accumulation becomes a major tailwind instead of a background signal.
The crypto market is still under pressure after the latest FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve delivered its third 25 bps rate cut of the year, but the tone that followed was more cautious than expected. Inflation risks and slower growth signals have kept prices weak across most major assets. Despite this pullback, crypto whales are quietly adding to their positions.
Their buying has focused on three tokens that show early signs of rebound or breakout setups.
Aster (ASTER)
Aster’s price has slipped almost 4% in the past 24 hours, extending its month-on-month losses to about 14%. Yet whales are moving in the opposite direction.
Their holdings jumped 7.35% over the past day, adding about 4.59 million ASTER, worth roughly $4.22 million at the current price. What’s interesting is that ASTER is one of those rare coins that saw whale buying both before and after the FOMC decision.
This buying stands out because the chart shows a technical setup that may help explain why whales stepped in.
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Between November 3 and December 11, the ASTER price formed a higher low, while the RSI made a lower low. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures the strength of buying and selling. When the price rises but RSI falls, this creates a hidden bullish divergence. It usually signals that selling pressure is fading, even if the chart still looks weak on the surface.
Aster showed the same pattern between November 3 and December 1. That divergence produced a bounce of almost 22%. The current setup looks similar, and whales may be positioning for the same kind of rebound.
For upside continuation, Aster needs a clean daily close above $1.08, the level where the last bounce stalled. If it breaks that line, the price can aim for $1.25 and $1.40, which match the next major resistances.
If the structure weakens instead, the downside is clear too. A daily close below $0.88 would break the rising structure and weaken whale conviction. Under that floor, ASTER may revisit $0.81 or lower.
Maple Finance (SYRUP)
Maple Finance (SYRUP) is still down about 2.2% in the past 24 hours and nearly 40% over the past month. Even with this weakness, crypto whales continued building positions. Normal whale wallets increased their holdings by 3.86% in the past day, while mega whales increased their stash by 4.9%, taking their total to 1.1 billion SYRUP.
That 4.9% jump means mega whales added roughly 51.4 million SYRUP, worth about $14.4 million at the current price. The fresh accumulation comes right after the slightly hawkish FOMC tone, which makes the buying move more interesting.
Whales seem to be counting on the $0.23 support to hold. SYRUP touched this level several times since early December. It has not broken once, which may be the reason whales stepped in. The token has been moving in a broad $0.23 to $0.31 range, with its last support test on December 4.
Momentum gives a short-term boost. Between December 9 and December 11, the price made a lower low while the RSI made a higher low. RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures buying and selling strength. When price drops but RSI rises, it forms a bullish divergence. On lower time frames, this usually points to a bounce even during a wider downtrend.
If a bounce forms, the first target is $0.31, the ceiling that has rejected every move since December 6. A clear break above $0.31 opens the path to $0.39 and $0.48.
But if the SYRUP price loses $0.23, the whale conviction weakens. A breakdown there exposes open downside and likely resets the setup.
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU)
Pudgy Penguins is down almost 10% in the past 24 hours, but crypto whales continue to buy through the dip. Whale wallets increased their holdings by 5.25%, taking their total stash to 1.18 billion PENGU. That increase means whales added about 58.9 million PENGU.
Top 100 addresses or mega whales also showed steady accumulation. Their holdings rose 2.85% in the past day, lifting their combined stash to 76.95 billion PENGU. That comes to an addition of about 2.13 billion tokens, worth close to $21.3 million at today’s price. For a token that just slipped double digits, this kind of synchronized whale and mega whale buying is rare.
The PENGU price chart explains why the whales continue to load up. Pudgy Penguins is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe. This is a bullish reversal setup that often forms when a downtrend is losing pressure. The neckline sits near $0.014, and because it is sloping upward, it signals improving buyer-aligned structure even before a breakout forms.
Whales may be betting on that breakout. If PENGU closes above $0.014, the pattern’s height projects a move of roughly 35%, which places the upside target near $0.019. That is likely the reason large wallets are entering despite the price weakness.
But the pattern has clear invalidation levels. If Pudgy Penguins loses $0.010, the setup weakens. A drop under $0.009 fully invalidates the pattern and removes the bullish projection. For now, as long as PENGU holds above $0.010, the inverse head and shoulders remains in play, and crypto whales look prepared for a possible breakout.
XRP price has tested patience for weeks. The coin is down about 18% over the last month and nearly 4% in the past 24 hours. It has spent most of its time stuck inside a tight range, making the past few weeks feel flat and frustrating.
But the latest move shows something that the earlier attempts did not. A chart signal and a shift in holder behavior now point to a bounce that might finally have enough support to hold.
A New Signal Shows That Buyers Might Be Returning
XRP has been trading between $2.28 and $1.98 since late November. This range shows that buyers and sellers have been evenly matched. But the lower side of this range recently produced something new. The price touched the bottom trend line of a symmetrical triangle. A symmetrical triangle forms when buyers and sellers slow down at the same pace, which often signals an aggresive move.
The first strong clue comes from the volume trend. Between December 6 and December 11, the price made a lower low, but the On-Balance Volume (OBV) made a higher low.
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OBV measures whether volume is flowing in or out of a coin. When price drops but OBV rises, it shows hidden accumulation. This usually means someone is buying the dips even while the chart looks weak. That is the first sign that a bounce attempt might surface.
This combination of the triangle support and the OBV divergence hints that early buying pressure is returning.
Why This Bounce Could Finally Hold If Selling Pressure Keeps Fading
A clean bounce, if it happens, also needs lower selling pressure. Long-term holders, often the strongest group in any coin, have reduced their selling sharply. On December 3, they were moving out 101,083,156 XRP. By December 10, that number dropped to 51,157,301 XRP. That is about a 49% reduction. They are still net sellers, but the selling pressure is softening at a noticeable pace.
The most interesting, third clue, comes from the fastest-moving wallets. These short-term XRP holders often sell into every bounce and kill momentum. But this time, they are cutting the supply. That is evident via the HODL waves metric, which shows supply held based on cohort age.
The 24-hour cohort held 1.89% of the supply on December 2. By December 10, that had dropped to just 0.22%.
The one-day to one-week cohort peaked at 3.88% on December 4 and has dropped to 1.24% as of December 10. This removes the speculative pressure that usually weakens rebounds.
When long-term holders sell less and very short-term holders (speculative money) exit the market, it allows price bounces to sustain.
XRP Price Levels That Will Confirm or Break the XRP Bounce
XRP trades near $2.00 and is still inside the broader $2.28 to $1.98 range. For the bounce to gain strength, XRP needs to clear $2.17 first. That level, about 8.37% higher, is the checkpoint that decides the next push. A daily close above it improves the odds of testing the top of the range.
A move above $2.28 would confirm a range break. That would allow the XRP price to aim higher, finally.
On the downside, the risk is close. A daily candle close under $1.98 weakens the entire bullish setup. If that breaks, the chart opens a path toward $1.88. That is the next major support.
Bitcoin price has extended its correction after the FOMC rate cut. The coin is down about 13% over the past 30 days and almost 4% in the past week. The move still fits inside a slow, grinding corrective phase since the October peak.
But two on-chain shifts now show something that did not appear at any point earlier in this downturn. These signals suggest the correction could be close to a turn — if Bitcoin delivers the push it needs.
Two Metrics Now Point Toward a Possible Turn
Short-term capitulation is showing up clearly now. CryptoQuant’s realized profit-and-loss data shows short-term Bitcoin holders are still deep in losses. This usually happens near the end of a correction, not the middle, because panicked selling at a loss often marks late-stage exhaustion.
BTC Short-Term Holders are Still in a Pain Zone
“Structurally, these deep loss pockets usually show up closer to the late stages of a correction than the early ones.” – By @IT_Tech_PLpic.twitter.com/bw39CfxGh6
HODL Waves measure how much Bitcoin each “age band” holds — from very new coins to very old ones. It shows which groups are accumulating or selling. The one-day to one-week cohort held 6.2% of the supply in late November. By December 10, they held only 2%.
That is a massive 68% drop and signals heavy short-term selling, the kind that often completes a correction rather than starts a new one. Plus, this cohort dumping also pushes speculative money out of the asset.
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The next signal comes from Exchange Net Position Change, which tracks how many coins move into or out of exchanges each day.
On November 27, net flows were +5,103 BTC (coins moving in).
By December 10, the flows flipped to –43,292 BTC, a flip of more than 8.4x from inflows to outflows.
A similar shift happened between September 17 and September 25. After that flip, Bitcoin rallied toward its all-time high above $126,000, per CoinGecko.
Now the same combination — short-term capitulation plus strong outflows — is forming again. Together, they create the cleanest trend-shift setup of this entire correction.
Bitcoin Price Needs a 4% Push to Break Out?
If these signals are pointing to a turn, the Bitcoin price chart needs to confirm it. The Bitcoin price has been moving inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. A symmetrical triangle forms when buyers and sellers slow at the same pace. Each side has only two touch points, which makes both trend lines weak. A small push can break the entire setup on either side.
That push is clear: Bitcoin needs a daily close above $94,140, which is only about a 4% move from current levels. This level overlaps with both the horizontal resistance and the upper edge of the triangle. A clean breakout opens the path toward $97,320 and then $101,850.
On the downside, the nearest risk level is $90,180. A daily close under it weakens the bullish case. If that breaks, $87,010 is the next major support. Losing that exposes $80,640, where the broader bullish idea breaks.
Right now, the setup is neutral but improving. Short-term capitulation and heavy outflows give the Bitcoin price a chance to end its correction — but only if it delivers that 4% breakout.
XRP price has fallen almost 10% over the past month despite a slight 1.5% gain this week. The price remains locked inside a $2.31–$1.98 range, failing to secure any meaningful breakout. This tension reflects a split in market behavior: whales are selling into strength while key holder groups continue accumulating.
The push and pull between these two sides is keeping the XRP price inside a falling wedge that has yet to confirm a bullish reversal.
Whales Trim While Key Holder Groups Resist the Pressure
Whale activity shows a clear shift toward caution.
Wallets holding 100 million–1 billion XRP cut their balances from 8.32 billion to 8.27 billion, starting December 7. Another group holding 10–100 million XRP reduced its supply from 11.01 billion to 10.99 billion on December 8. Together, they offloaded about 70 million XRP over the past 48 hours, worth roughly $143 million at the current price.
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The selling is not dramatic in token terms, but it arrives at a sensitive moment — exactly when XRP is trying to stabilize. This sell pressure helps explain why every breakout attempt has stalled before gaining momentum.
The counterforce comes from short- and mid-term holders, and this shows up clearly on HODL Waves. HODL Waves track how much XRP is held in each “coin age band,” showing how long tokens remain unmoved.
The one-to three-month group increased from 8.52% to 10.31%. The three-to six-month group rose from 9.40% to 10.87%.
These holders typically accumulate when they believe selling pressure is easing. Their buying into a 10% monthly decline suggests they expect the wedge structure to resolve to the upside eventually.
That tension is holding the XRP price inside the same narrowing structure.
XRP Price Pattern Shows a Stalemate as Buyers and Sellers Pull in Opposite Directions
XRP is forming a falling wedge, a pattern that usually favors bullish reversals — but only if buyers can force a decisive breakout. Right now, the wedge is functioning more as a stalemate, with whale selling capping momentum and accumulating holders preventing deeper downside.
The breakout point sits near $2.46, where the descending trendline meets current price action. The XRP price needs a strong daily close above this level to confirm a reversal. If that happens, upside targets sit at $2.61, $2.83, and $3.11.
While price trades between $2.31 and $1.98, the wedge remains valid. A break below $1.98, however, weakens the pattern and exposes $1.82, a level that served as structural support earlier in the cycle.
For now, the outlook is simple: Whale selling delays the breakout. Mid-term accumulation keeps the structure alive. The wedge will not resolve until one side overwhelms the other.
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