Solana has struggled to recover after a recent price decline, with SOL remaining capped below the $130 resistance. The altcoin has shown attempts to stabilize, yet momentum remains fragile.
Unlike previous rallies driven by new inflows, the next move appears dependent on existing Solana holders rather than fresh market entrants.
Some Solana Holders Show Resilience
On-chain data shows early signs of stabilization. The Chaikin Money Flow has posted a sharp uptick over the past few days. Although the indicator remains below the zero line, the upward movement suggests that capital outflows are slowing.
This shift is critical for Solana’s recovery outlook. Declining outflows often precede a transition toward inflows. Once buying pressure outweighs selling, SOL price can respond quickly. Sustained improvement in CMF would signal returning confidence among current holders.
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Macro indicators present a more cautious picture. The number of new Solana addresses has dropped sharply in recent sessions. New addresses declined from 6.077 million to 5.390 million, an 11.3% decrease over ten days.
Falling network participation suggests weaker speculative interest. New investors appear hesitant, citing limited short-term incentives. This lack of fresh demand places greater importance on existing holders to support price stability and any recovery attempt.
Solana trades near $126 at the time of writing, remaining below the $130 resistance level. Price action shows consolidation rather than a breakout. The immediate goal for SOL is reclaiming $130, which would mark a shift in short-term momentum.
Declining outflows improve the probability of a rebound. If current holders maintain accumulation and inflows emerge, buying pressure could lift SOL toward $130. A sustained move above this level would require consistent support rather than brief speculative spikes.
Downside risks persist if sentiment deteriorates. Renewed selling could push Solana below the $123 support. A breakdown at that level may expose $118 as the next downside target. Losing this support would invalidate the bullish outlook and reinforce short-term weakness.
A coalition of more than 125 cryptocurrency companies and advocacy groups has launched a coordinated offensive against US banking lobbyists. The group includes major crypto firms such as Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken.
The move escalates a high-stakes battle over who has the right to pay interest on stablecoin deposits.
Why Banks Are Lobbying to Tweak the GENIUS Act
The main bone of contention is that the GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits stablecoin issuers like Tether from paying dividends.
However, there is currently a loophole that allows third-party platforms, such as crypto exchanges, to pass this stablecoin yield on to users.
The banking lobby contends that if unregulated fintech platforms are allowed to offer high yields on cash-equivalent tokens, it poses a systemic risk to the traditional financial architecture.
In briefings with Capitol Hill, they warned that preserving the current rules could trigger a massive capital flight. They estimated potential deposit outflows of up to $6.6 trillion from commercial banks to digital asset platforms.
Such a shift, they argue, would hollow out the capital base that banks use to underwrite mortgages and business loans. That erosion would force lenders to shrink capacity and raise borrowing costs for American households.
Crypto Coalition Fights Back
In a December 18 letter to the US Senate Committee on Banking, the crypto coalition urged lawmakers to reject attempts to expand the scope of the recently enacted GENIUS Act.
“Reopening this issue before the GENIUS Act’s implementation would weaken the certainty that defines Congressional-enacted regulatory frameworks and introduce unnecessary risk into the broader market structure effort. It would signal that even recently enacted compromises remain subject to almost immediate renegotiation, undermining the predictability that markets, consumers, and innovators rely on,” the group argued.
The crypto coalition also dismissed the banks’ concerns about stability as a protectionist effort to maintain a monopoly on low-interest deposits.
The signatories argued that banks are merely trying to protect their profit margins by preventing consumers from accessing the 4% yields currently available in the Treasury market.
“Stablecoins rewards programs enable platforms to share value directly with users, helping households benefit from higher-rate environments rather than absorbing losses to inflation,” the crypto firms argued.
The Banksters are trying to prohibit platforms like @Gemini, @coinbase, and @krakenfx from offering stablecoin rewards to you. The GENIUS Act already settled this issue with an elegant compromise — stablecoin issuers cannot offer rewards, but intermediary platforms like Gemini,… https://t.co/QpdiQfaD0X
Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, also publicly slammed the banking lobby’s maneuver, characterizing it as an attempt to “relitigate a settled legislative issue.”
XRP has struggled to sustain a recovery over the past several days, with price repeatedly failing to gain traction near key resistance levels. Despite the hesitation, investor behavior is shifting.
Large holders appear to be increasing exposure, signaling growing confidence that current prices may offer an attractive entry point.
XRP Holders Are Imbuing Confidence
On-chain data shows a notable increase in whale accumulation. Addresses holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP added roughly 330 million tokens over the past 48 hours.
This accumulation is valued at approximately $642 million, highlighting renewed demand from large investors.
Such behavior suggests XRP whales are capitalizing on depressed prices rather than exiting positions. Accumulation during consolidation phases often reflects expectations of recovery.
This demand can provide structural support, reducing downside risk while improving the probability of a sustained rebound.
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Macro indicators further support the constructive outlook. XRP’s liveliness metric has declined over the past week, signaling reduced coin movement. This trend suggests that long-term holders are shifting away from a selling behavior.
Lower liveliness readings often reflect accumulation or holding patterns. Even a pause in selling by long-term holders can stabilize price action.
Reduced distribution helps absorb short-term volatility, improving conditions for recovery when new demand enters the market.
XRP trades near $1.94 at the time of writing, sitting just below a month-long downtrend that has capped upside. The immediate recovery target stands at $2.02. A break above this level would signal renewed strength and an improvement in the trend.
Accumulation by whales and declining long-term selling pressure favor a bullish scenario. If these factors persist, XRP could push past $2.02 and advance toward $2.20. Such a move would mark a clear breakout from the prevailing downtrend.
Downside risks remain if bearish pressure regains control. A failure to sustain momentum could pull XRP back toward $1.85. Further weakness may expose the $1.79 support. Losing that level would invalidate the bullish thesis and reinforce near-term downside risk.
Hedera’s HBAR continues to trade under pressure as a persistent downtrend limits upside attempts. Multiple breakout efforts have failed, keeping the altcoin from establishing higher levels.
The broader market environment has added strain, preventing HBAR from gaining traction despite brief stabilization near key support zones.
Hedera Is Facing Bearishness
Technical indicators show growing bearish momentum. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator was released earlier last week, triggering heightened volatility. Instead of an upside move, the release resulted in a sharp price drop, reinforcing negative sentiment among short-term traders.
The indicator’s histogram continues to deepen in bearish territory. This pattern suggests selling pressure remains dominant. Strengthening downside momentum reduces the likelihood of HBAR price recovery, as traders hesitate to reenter positions amid weak technical confirmation.
HBAR’s macro outlook is closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance. The altcoin currently shows a strong correlation of 0.79 with BTC. This relationship indicates HBAR is largely mirroring Bitcoin’s price movements rather than acting independently.
Bitcoin’s struggle to recover has therefore weighed heavily on HBAR. When BTC lacks momentum, correlated assets often face similar constraints. Unless Bitcoin stages a sustained rebound, HBAR’s ability to break its downtrend remains limited by broader market weakness.
HBAR Correlation With Bitcoin. Source: TradingView
HBAR Price Could Note Further Decline
HBAR trades near $0.111 at the time of writing, holding slightly above the $0.110 support. The token dropped 24.5% earlier last week after failing to escape its month-long downtrend. Current price action suggests cautious stabilization rather than reversal.
Given prevailing conditions, HBAR may continue to struggle below the $0.120 level. Persistent bearish momentum could drag the price toward $0.099. A move to this zone would extend losses and reinforce the downtrend that has dominated recent trading sessions.
A bullish alternative depends on renewed investor inflows. Increased buying interest could help HBAR reclaim $0.120 and break free from its downward structure. A sustained push toward $0.125 would invalidate the bearish thesis and signal improving confidence among market participants.
Ethereum core developers have revealed plans to execute two major network upgrades in 2026, codenamed “Glamsterdam” and “Hegota.”
This decision marks the blockchain network’s continued strategic pivot toward a faster release cadence. The move is intended to establish a predictable biannual upgrade schedule and strengthen its competitive position against high-throughput rivals.
Ethereum Shifts to Biannual Upgrades to Fend Off High-Speed Rivals
The roadmap positions “Glamsterdam” for release in the first half of 2026, arriving fast on the heels of the recent “Fusaka” hard fork.
According to developers, Glamsterdam will focus on immediate scalability and efficiency fixes, primarily through gas optimizations and “Enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation” (ePBS).
Meanwhile, the developers intend to finalize the full feature list for Glamsterdam immediately following the holiday break.
On the other hand, the second phase of the 2026 sprint, “Hegota,” targets the latter half of the year.
The upgrade’s name reflects its dual nature, combining the “Bogota” execution-layer update with the “Heze” consensus-layer update.
Christine Kim, a former Vice President at Galaxy Digital who now closely tracks protocol governance, noted that scoping discussions for Hegota will commence on the January 8 All Core Developers call.
These sessions will determine the fork’s “headliner” features, with a finalized scope expected by late February.
Other Planned Updates
Parallel to these structural changes, the Ethereum Foundation is aggressively reorienting its long-term research toward security hardening.
Researcher George Kadianakis confirmed that the network aims to achieve “128-bit provable security” by year-end 2026. The cryptographic standard is considered essential for institutional-grade financial applications.
“For zkEVMs, this isn’t academic. A soundness issue is not like other security issues. If an attacker can forge a proof, they can forge anything: mint tokens from nothing, rewrite state, steal funds. For an L1 zkEVM securing hundreds of billions of dollars, the security margin is not negotiable,” he stated.
The Foundation has linked this initiative to specific milestones, including a “soundcalc” integration in February and full alignment with the Glamsterdam hard fork in May.
Meanwhile, these efforts aim to remove the technical friction that currently limits Ethereum’s mass adoption.
To bridge this gap, developers are implementing a strategy to lower entry barriers and match the intuitive simplicity of mainstream consumer applications.
Zcash has recorded a sharp upside move, gaining 13% over the past 24 hours and pushing closer to the $500 level.
The rally reflects improving holder confidence and supportive technical momentum. Unlike many altcoins, ZEC is maintaining relative strength despite broader market uncertainty.
Zcash Holders Seem To Be Changing Stance
Momentum indicators highlight Zcash’s improving sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above the neutral 50.0 level and entered the positive zone. This shift places ZEC among a small group of altcoins currently showing bullish momentum.
An RSI above 50.0 suggests buyers are gaining control. This positioning may help Zcash resist short-term bearish pressure affecting the wider market. Strong momentum readings often support trend continuation when paired with stable demand from holders.
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Macro indicators reinforce the constructive outlook. The Chaikin Money Flow is trending higher, signaling a slowdown in capital outflows. Although the indicator remains below the zero line, the upward move suggests selling pressure is easing.
Retracing outflows is significant during recovery phases. If market conditions remain steady, declining outflows could transition into net inflows. Such a shift would confirm improving conviction and provide the liquidity needed to sustain ZEC’s upward trajectory.
Zcash price is standing near $438 at the time of writing, marking a 13% gain in one day. The price is now testing the $442 resistance zone. Clearing this level is critical for confirming the continuation of the current rally.
Bullish technical signals support further upside. If momentum indicators remain positive and capital flows stabilize, ZEC could advance toward $500. The move would require only a 13.8% increase from current levels, making the target technically achievable in favorable conditions.
Downside risks persist if resistance holds. Failure to breach $442 or renewed selling could pull ZEC back toward the $403 support. A breakdown below that level would weaken the bullish outlook and open the door to a deeper correction toward $370.
A cryptocurrency trader lost $50 million in Tether’s USDT after falling victim to a sophisticated “address poisoning” attack.
On December 20, blockchain security firm Scam Sniffer reported that the attack began after the victim sent a small $50 test transaction to his own address.
How The Address Poisoning Scheme Unfolded
Notably, traders use this standard precaution to confirm that they are sending funds to the correct address.
— Scam Sniffer | Web3 Anti-Scam (@realScamSniffer) December 20, 2025
The fake address is designed to match the intended recipient’s address at the beginning and end of the alphanumeric string. The differences appear only in the middle characters, making the fraud difficult to detect at a glance.
The attacker then sent a negligible amount of cryptocurrency from the spoofed address to the victim’s wallet.
That transaction effectively placed the fraudulent address into the victim’s recent transaction history, where many wallet interfaces display only truncated address details.
Relying on that visual shorthand, the victim copied the address from their transaction history without checking the full string. So, instead of transferring funds to a secure personal wallet, the trader sent 49,999,950 USDT directly to the attacker.
After receiving the funds, the malicious attacker quickly moved to limit the risk of asset seizure, according to on-chain records. The attacker immediately swapped the stolen USDT, which its issuer can freeze, for the DAI stablecoin using MetaMask Swap.
Attacker Moves to Obscure Transaction Trail. Source: Slowmist
The attacker then converted the funds into roughly 16,680 ETH.
To further obscure the transaction trail, the attacker deposited the ETH into Tornado Cash. The decentralized mixing service is designed to sever the visible link between sending and receiving addresses.
Victim Offers $1 Million Bounty
In an attempt to recover the assets, the victim sent an on-chain message offering a $1 million white-hat bounty in return for 98% of the stolen funds.
“We have officially filed a criminal case. With the assistance of law enforcement, cybersecurity agencies, and multiple blockchain protocols, we have already gathered substantial and actionable intelligence regarding your activities,” the message stated.
The message warned that the victim would pursue “relentless” legal action if the attacker failed to comply within 48 hours.
“If you fail to comply: We will escalate the matter through legal and international law enforcement channels. Your identity will be uncovered and shared with the appropriate authorities. We will relentlessly pursue criminal and civil action until full justice is served. This is not a request. You are being given one final chance to avoid irreversible consequences,” the victim stated.
The incident underscores a persistent vulnerability in how digital wallets display transaction information and how attackers exploit user behavior rather than flaws in blockchain code.
Security analysts have repeatedly warned that wallet providers’ practice of abbreviating long address strings for usability and design reasons creates a persistent risk.
If this problem is not solved, attackers are likely to continue exploiting users’ tendency to verify only the first and last few characters of an address.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, the US Senate’s most prominent cryptocurrency advocate, announced on December 19 that she will not seek reelection in 2026.
The decision sets a definitive deadline on her legislative agenda, creating a two-year sprint to enshrine digital asset regulations before she leaves office in January 2027.
Lummis’ Impending Retirement Adds Pressure to Codify Crypto Laws
Lummis cited the “exhausting” pace of recent sessions as the primary driver for her exit. “I am a devout legislator, but I feel like a sprinter in a marathon,” she wrote, admitting she lacks the energy reserves for another six-year term.
Thank you, Wyoming! Serving our state has been the honor of my life. – Cynthia Lummis pic.twitter.com/FoRTlHaHxI
While the Trump administration has reversed several anti-crypto measures and advanced pro-crypto goals through executive action, Sen. Lummis has welcomed those steps.
She has consistently argued, however, that durable progress requires legislative codification rather than policy set by executive order alone.
So, her final term will focus on bridging the gap between temporary executive orders and permanent congressional law to protect the industry from future political reversals.
“I look forward to throwing all my energy into bringing important legislation to [Trump’s] desk in 2026 and into retaining commonsense Republican control of the US Senate,” Lummis said.
Meanwhile, the announcement triggered immediate accolades from industry heavyweights. Some argued that her exit would leave a crypto leadership vacuum in Washington.
Collin McCune, Head of Government Affairs at a16z, highlighted her national impact and noted her role in advancing crypto legislation.
“Senator Lummis fought for Wyoming every day for many years. Beyond that, her leadership created space for innovators and builders across the country. Crypto would not be where it is today without her fight in the Congress,” he added.
Arjun Sethi, co-CEO of crypto exchange Kraken, offered a detailed retrospective on Lummis’s legacy, crediting her with making Wyoming the first jurisdiction to take a “technically informed approach” to digital assets.
Sethi praised Lummis for championing frameworks that aligned with “technical reality” rather than legacy assumptions. He said the approach helped create operating certainty across markets, from Bitcoin to emerging “memetic assets.”
“Senator Lummis advocacy for Bitcoin and digital assets has been grounded, patient, and long term. Not performative. Not reactive. Focused on competitiveness, resilience, and ensuring the United States remains a place where open systems can be built and operated responsibly,” Sethi said.
The US Dollar (USD) enters the new year at a crossroads. After several years of sustained strength driven by US growth outperformance, aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening, and recurrent episodes of global risk aversion, the conditions that underpinned broad-based USD appreciation are beginning to erode, but not collapse.
FXStreet predicts the coming year is better characterised as a transition phase rather than a clean regime shift.
A Transitional Year for USD
The 2026 base case is for a moderate softening of the Greenback, led by high-beta and undervalued currencies, as interest-rate differentials narrow and global growth becomes less asymmetric.
The Fed is expected to move cautiously towards policy easing, but the bar for aggressive rate cuts remains high. Sticky services inflation, a resilient labour market, and expansionary fiscal policy argue against a rapid normalisation of US monetary settings.
US Dollar Index Over the Past Decade. Source: Macro Trends
In the FX galaxy, this implies selective opportunities rather than a wholesale US Dollar bear market.
Near-term risks include renewed US fiscal brinkmanship, with shutdown risk more likely to generate episodic volatility and defensive USD demand than a lasting shift in the Dollar’s trend.
Looking further ahead, the approaching end of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term in May introduces an additional source of uncertainty, with markets beginning to assess whether a future Fed leadership transition could eventually tilt policy in a more dovish direction.
Overall, the year ahead is less about calling the end of Dollar dominance and more about navigating a world in which the USD is less irresistible but still indispensable.
US Dollar in 2025: From Exceptionalism to Exhaustion?
The past year was not defined by a single shock but by a steady sequence of moments that kept testing, and ultimately reaffirming, the US Dollar’s resilience.
It began with a confident consensus that US growth would slow and that the Fed would soon pivot towards easier policy.
Inflation became the second recurring fault line. Headline pressures eased, but progress was uneven, particularly in services.
Every upside surprise reopened the debate about how restrictive policy really needed to be, and each time the result looked familiar: a firmer Dollar and a reminder that the disinflation process was not yet complete.
Geopolitics added a constant background hum. Tensions in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and fragile US-China relations – namely on the trade front – regularly unsettled markets.
Outside the US, there was little to challenge that setup: Europe struggled to generate clear momentum, China’s recovery failed to convince, and relative growth underperformance elsewhere capped the scope for sustained Dollar weakness.
And then there’s the Trump factor: Politics has mattered less as a clean directional driver for the Dollar and more as a source of recurring volatility.
As the timeline below shows, periods of heightened policy or geopolitical uncertainty have typically been moments when the currency benefited from its safe-haven role.
Trump Timeline
Moving into 2026, that pattern is unlikely to change. The Trump presidency is more likely to influence FX through bursts of uncertainty around trade, fiscal policy, or institutions than through a predictable policy path.
Federal Reserve Policy: Cautious Easing, not a Pivot
The Fed policy remains the single most important anchor for the US Dollar outlook. Markets are increasingly confident that the peak in the policy rate is behind us.
Still, expectations for the pace and depth of easing remain fluid and somewhat over-optimistic.
Inflation has clearly moderated, but the final leg of disinflation is proving stubborn, with both headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth still above the bank’s 2.0% goal.
Services inflation remains elevated, wage growth is only slowly cooling, and financial conditions have eased materially. The labour market, while no longer overheating, remains resilient by historical standards.
US Inflation Performance Since 2022
Against this backdrop, the Fed is likely to cut rates gradually and conditionally, rather than embark on an aggressive easing cycle.
From an FX perspective, this matters because rate differentials are unlikely to compress as rapidly as markets currently expect.
The implication is that USD weakness driven by Fed easing is likely to be orderly rather than explosive.
Fiscal Dynamics and the Political Cycle
US fiscal policy remains a familiar complication for the Dollar outlook. Large deficits, rising debt issuance, and a deeply polarised political environment are no longer temporary features of the cycle; they are part of the landscape.
There is a clear tension at work.
On the one hand, expansive fiscal policy continues to support growth, delays any meaningful slowdown, and indirectly props up the Dollar by reinforcing US outperformance.
On the other hand, the steady increase in Treasury issuance raises obvious questions about debt sustainability and how long global investors will remain willing to absorb an ever-growing supply.
Markets have been remarkably relaxed about the so-called “twin deficits” thus far. Demand for US assets remains strong, drawn by liquidity, yield, and the absence of credible alternatives at scale.
Politics adds another layer of uncertainty.
Election years – with midterms in November 2026 – tend to increase risk premia and introduce short-term volatility into FX markets.
The recent government shutdown serves as a prime example: despite the US government resuming operations after 43 days, the main issue remains unresolved.
Lawmakers have pushed the next funding deadline to January 30, keeping the risk of another standoff firmly on the radar.
Valuation and Positioning: Crowded, but Not Broken
From a valuation standpoint, the US Dollar is no longer cheap, but neither does it screen as wildly stretched. Valuation alone, however, has rarely been a reliable trigger for major turning points in the Dollar cycle.
Positioning tells a more intriguing story: Speculative positioning has swung decisively, with USD net shorts now sitting at multi-year highs. In other words, a meaningful portion of the market has already positioned for further Dollar weakness.
That does not invalidate the bearish case, but it does change the risk profile. With positioning increasingly one-sided, the hurdle for sustained USD downside rises, while the risk of short-covering rallies grows.
This matters particularly in an environment still prone to policy surprises and geopolitical stress.
Put together, a relatively rich valuation and heavy short positioning argue less for a clean Dollar bear market and more for a choppier ride, with periods of weakness regularly interrupted by sharp and sometimes uncomfortable counter-trend moves.
US Dollar Index Against Net Position on Open Interest
Geopolitics and Safe-Haven Dynamics
Geopolitics remains one of the quieter but more reliable sources of support for the US Dollar.
Rather than one dominant geopolitical shock, markets are dealing with a steady build-up of tail risks.
Tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved, the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on Europe, and US-China relations are fragile at best. Add in disruptions to global trade routes and a renewed focus on strategic competition, and the background level of uncertainty stays elevated.
None of this means the Dollar should be permanently bid. But taken together, these risks reinforce a familiar pattern: when uncertainty rises and liquidity is suddenly in demand, the USD continues to benefit disproportionately from safe-haven flows.
Outlook for the major currency pairs
● EUR/USD: The Euro (EUR) should find some support as cyclical conditions improve and energy-related fears fade. That said, Europe’s deeper structural challenges haven’t gone away. Weak trend growth, limited fiscal flexibility, and an European Central Bank (ECB) that is likely to ease earlier than the Fed all cap the upside.
● USD/JPY: Japan’s gradual move away from ultra-loose policy should help the Japanese Yen (JPY) at the margin, but the yield gap with the US remains wide, and the risk of official intervention is never far away. Expect plenty of volatility, two-way risk, and sharp tactical moves, rather than anything that resembles a smooth, sustained trend.
● GBP/USD: The Pound Sterling (GBP) continues to face a tough backdrop. Trend growth is weak, fiscal headroom is limited, and politics remains a source of uncertainty. Valuation helps at the margin, but the UK still lacks a clear cyclical tailwind.
● USD/CNY: China’s policy stance remains firmly focused on stability, not reflation. Depreciation pressures on the Renminbi (CNY) haven’t disappeared, but authorities are unlikely to tolerate sharp or disorderly moves. That approach limits the risk of broader USD strength spilling over through Asia, but it also caps the upside for emerging-market FX tied closely to China’s cycle.
● Commodity FX: The likes of the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD), and Norwegian Krone (NOK) should benefit when risk sentiment improves and commodity prices stabilise. Even so, any gains are likely to be uneven and highly sensitive to Chinese data.
Scenarios and Risks for 2026
In the base case (60% probability), the Dollar gradually loses some ground as interest-rate differentials narrow and global growth becomes less uneven. This is a world of steady adjustment rather than a sharp reversal.
A more bullish outcome for the USD (around 25%), would be driven by familiar forces: inflation proving stickier than expected, Fed rate cuts being pushed further out (or no cuts at all), or a geopolitical shock that revives demand for safety and liquidity.
The bearish Dollar scenario carries a lower probability, around 15%. It would require a cleaner global growth recovery and a more decisive Fed easing cycle, enough to materially erode the buck’s yield advantage.
Another source of uncertainty sits around the Fed itself. With Chief Powell’s term ending in May, markets are likely to start focusing on who comes next well before any actual change takes place.
A perception that a successor might lean more dovish could gradually weigh on the Dollar by eroding confidence in US real yield support. As with much of the current outlook, the impact is likely to be uneven and time-dependent rather than a clean directional shift.
Taken together, the risks remain tilted towards episodic bouts of Dollar strength, even if the broader direction of travel points modestly lower over time.
US Dollar Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the Dollar’s recent pullback still looks more like a pause within a broader range than the start of a decisive trend reversal, at least when viewed through the lens of the US Dollar Index.
Step back to the weekly and monthly charts, and the picture becomes clearer: the DXY remains comfortably above its pre-pandemic levels, with buyers continuing to appear whenever stress returns to the system.
On the downside, the first key area to watch is around the 96.30 region, which marks roughly three-year lows. A clean break below that zone would be meaningful, bringing the long-term 200-month moving average just above 92.00 back into play.
Below there, the sub-90.00 area, last tested around the 2021 lows, would mark the next major line in the sand.
On the topside, the 100-week moving average near 103.40 stands out as the first serious hurdle. A move through that level would reopen the
door towards the 110.00 area, last reached in early January 2025. Once (and if) the latter is cleared, the post-pandemic peak near 114.80, which emerged in late 2022, could start to take shape on the horizon.
Taken together, the technical picture fits neatly with the broader macro story. There is room for further downside, but it is unlikely to be smooth or uncontested.
Indeed, the technicals point to a DXY that remains range-bound, paying attention to shifts in sentiment, and prone to sharp counter-moves rather than a clean, one-directional decline.
US Dollar Index (DXY) weekly chart
Conclusion: The End of the Peak, not the Privilege
The year ahead is unlikely to mark the end of the US Dollar’s central role in the global financial system.
Instead, it represents the end of a particularly favourable phase in which growth, policy, and geopolitics aligned perfectly in its favour.
As these forces slowly rebalance, the Greenback should lose some altitude, but not its relevance. For investors and policymakers alike, the challenge will be to distinguish between cyclical pullbacks and structural turning points.
The SEC has finalized civil settlements against three former senior executives at FTX and Alameda Research.
This judgment formally closes a major chapter in the regulator’s case tied to the collapse of the crypto exchange.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s Associates Receive a Decade of Ban
In a statement released on December 18, the SEC said it has filed proposed final consent judgments against Caroline Ellison, former CEO of Alameda Research, Gary Wang, former chief technology officer of FTX, and Nishad Singh, former co-lead engineer at FTX.
The judgments are subject to court approval.
ICYMI – Caroline Ellison was "quietly moved" from federal prison to "community confinement," after serving 11 months of her two year sentence, with online prison records listing an early release for Feb 2026 — BI pic.twitter.com/5HCAK5mQD2
The SEC confirms that FTX raised more than $1.8 billion from investors by portraying itself as a safe trading platform with strong protections for customer assets.
Investors were also told that Alameda Research operated like any other customer on the exchange. But those claims were false.
In reality, FTX secretly gave Alameda special privileges. The trading firm was exempted from risk controls and granted a virtually unlimited line of credit backed by FTX customer deposits.
This allowed Caroline Ellison to borrow and lose billions without facing liquidation.
The regulator alleges that Wang and Singh built the software code that enabled customer funds to be diverted from FTX to Alameda.
Ellison, who ran Alameda, then used those funds for trading, venture investments, and loans to executives, including Sam Bankman-Fried, Wang, and Singh.
Ryan Salame tweets his court filing that his plea was based upon no federal charges against Michelle Bond
All FTX insiders – Caroline Ellison, Gary Wang, Nishad Singh, Daniel Friedberg, Sam Trabucco etc
— Sunil (FTX Creditor Champion) (@sunil_trades) August 26, 2025
Without admitting or denying the allegations, all three executives agreed to permanent injunctions barring them from violating key antifraud provisions of US securities law. They also accepted additional restrictions on their future professional roles.
Ellison consented to a 10-year ban from serving as an officer or director of a public company.
Wang and Singh each agreed to 8-year bans as officers and directors.
All three are also subject to 5-year conduct-based injunctions, allowing the SEC to act quickly if they reenter securities-related activities improperly.
Gary Wang, FTX’s former CTO and co-founder, received a criminal sentence of time served after cooperating extensively with federal prosecutors. He is currently on supervised release.
Nishad Singh, the former co-lead engineer at FTX, also received a time-served criminal sentence and remains on supervised release.
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